DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 091207
SWODY1
SPC AC 091206

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0706 AM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. UPSTREAM...A REX BLOCK PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC...WITH A CLOSED UPPER
LOW EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SWD OFF OF THE NRN/CNTRL COAST OF CA.
WITH MUCH OF THE CONUS STILL STABILIZED AS A RESULT OF THE RECENT
COLD AIR INTRUSION...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE AND
ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED.

...FL PENINSULA...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE /PWAT AROUND 2 IN/ WILL AGAIN SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL LIMIT TSTM
COVERAGE ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA COMPARED TO MONDAY.

...NRN CA...
WHILE GREATEST FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE...COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED STEEP
LOW/MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS OF NRN CA.

...OH VALLEY...
LIMITED ELEVATED BUOYANCY /MU CAPE OF 100-300 J/KG/ MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS SERN MO NEWD INTO SWRN OH DURING THE EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA WITH THE BEST THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR LIGHTNING. THE PREVIOUS
GENERAL THUNDER AREA HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THIS REGION...THOUGH A
FEW ISOLATED STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..DEAN/CORFIDI.. 10/09/2012

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