KBGM [212145]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 212145
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
545 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0447 PM HAIL 1 NW CAMDEN 43.35N 75.76W
05/21/2011 E0.75 INCH ONEIDA NY PUBLIC

HAIL DURATION WAS VERY BRIEF. LOCATION WAS AT THE
MCDONALDS.

&&

$$

HEDEN

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KBGM [212143]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 212143
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
543 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0443 PM HAIL 2 NNW CAMDEN 43.36N 75.76W
05/21/2011 E0.75 INCH ONEIDA NY PUBLIC

PENNY SIZE HAIL WHICH WAS ENOUGH TO COVER THE GROUND.
SOME LAWN FURNITURE BLOWN AROUND....ESTIMATED WINDS OF
30 TO 40 MPH.

&&

$$

HEDEN

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KMPX [212140]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 212140
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
440 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0440 PM HAIL STEWART 44.73N 94.49W
05/21/2011 M0.50 INCH MCLEOD MN PUBLIC

PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL

&&

$$

LRS

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KFWD [212133]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 212133
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
433 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM HAIL CLAIRETTE 32.03N 98.12W
05/21/2011 E1.75 INCH ERATH TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

$$

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KFWD [212130]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 212130
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
430 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM HAIL 9 S BLUFF DALE 32.22N 98.02W
05/21/2011 E1.50 INCH ERATH TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

$$

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KOHX [212128]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOHX 212128
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
428 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0425 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 NW MOUNT JULIET 36.25N 86.57W
05/21/2011 WILSON TN NWS EMPLOYEE

TREE DOWN AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE

&&

$$

ROSE

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KMPX [212126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 212126
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
426 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0424 PM HAIL 10 NE HUTCHINSON 44.94N 94.25W
05/21/2011 M0.75 INCH WRIGHT MN 911 CALL CENTER

&&

$$

BAP

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KLZK [212126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KLZK 212126
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
425 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0548 PM TORNADO 3 SW MALVERN 34.34N 92.85W
05/20/2011 F0 HOT SPRING AR NWS STORM SURVEY

A BRIEF TORNADO OCCURRED IN HOT SPRING COUNTY. THE STORM
TRACKED FROM 2.7 MILES SW OF MALVERN TO 1.3 MILES SE OF
MALVERN AND HAD A PATH LENGTH OF 3.2 MILES. THE STORM WAS
RATED AS AN EF0 ON THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE. DAMAGE
CONSISTED OF MANY LARGE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN AND A FEW TREES
WERE BLOWN OVER. IN ADDITION, SHINGLES WERE BLOWN OFF AN
APARTMENT COMPLEX AND SEVERAL HOUSES.

&&

$$

62

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KFWD [212123]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 212123
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
423 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0338 PM HAIL 9 S BLUFF DALE 32.22N 98.02W
05/21/2011 E2.75 INCH ERATH TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

$$

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KLZK [212122]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 212122
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
422 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0412 PM TORNADO 3 SW MALVERN 34.34N 92.85W
05/20/2011 HOT SPRING AR NWS STORM SURVEY

A BRIEF TORNADO OCCURRED IN HOT SPRING COUNTY. THE STORM
TRACKED FROM 2.7 MILES SW OF MALVERN TO 1.3 MILES SE OF
MALVERN AND HAD A PATH LENGTH OF 3.2 MILES. THE STORM WAS
RATED AS AN EF0 ON THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE. DAMAGE
CONSISTED OF MANY LARGE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN AND A FEW TREES
WERE BLOWN OVER. IN ADDITION, SHINGLES WERE BLOWN OFF AN
APARTMENT COMPLEX AND SEVERAL HOUSES.

&&

$$

56

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KFWD [212121]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 212121
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
421 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0408 PM HAIL GRANBURY 32.45N 97.80W
05/21/2011 E1.75 INCH HOOD TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

QUARTER TO GOLF BALL HAIL IN GRANBURY

$$

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KMPX [212118]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 212118
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
418 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0417 PM HAIL FAIRFAX 44.53N 94.72W
05/21/2011 E0.25 INCH RENVILLE MN 911 CALL CENTER

ESTIMATED PEA TO DIME SIZE ABOUT 345 PM

&&

$$

LRS

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KBGM [212107]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 212107
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
507 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM HAIL CAMDEN 43.34N 75.75W
05/21/2011 M0.88 INCH ONEIDA NY PUBLIC

&&

$$

JML

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KBTV [212104]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KBTV 212104
LSRBTV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
504 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HAIL WAITSFIELD 44.19N 72.83W
05/20/2011 E0.25 INCH WASHINGTON VT TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL FELL FOR ABOUT A HALF-HOUR

0400 PM LIGHTNING STOWE 44.47N 72.69W
05/20/2011 LAMOILLE BROADCAST MEDIA

FIRE AT DENTIST OFFICE LIKELY CAUSED BY LIGHTNING

0406 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 N BRISTOL 44.21N 73.08W
05/20/2011 ADDISON VT NWS EMPLOYEE

SILVER STREET-4 SPOTS COVERED WITH WATER. SOME SPOTS
ARE IMPASSABLE

0425 PM HAIL 6 S FAIRFIELD 44.72N 72.95W
05/20/2011 E1.00 INCH FRANKLIN VT PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL

0445 PM FLASH FLOOD WAITSFIELD 44.19N 72.83W
05/20/2011 WASHINGTON VT TOWN OFFICE

NUMEROUS ROADS WASHED OUT IN WAITSFIELD

0445 PM FLASH FLOOD WAITSFIELD 44.19N 72.83W
05/20/2011 WASHINGTON VT PUBLIC

STREET FLOODING... PEA SIZE HAIL ALSO REPORTED

0447 PM HAIL EAST FAIRFIELD 44.78N 72.86W
05/20/2011 E0.25 INCH FRANKLIN VT PUBLIC

PEA SIZE HAIL AT THE GENERAL STORE

0447 PM HAIL BAKERSFIELD 44.78N 72.80W
05/20/2011 E0.50 INCH FRANKLIN VT PUBLIC

HALF-INCH HAIL

0500 PM FLASH FLOOD 6 S FAIRFIELD 44.72N 72.95W
05/20/2011 FRANKLIN VT PUBLIC

FIELD FLOODING AND DRIVEWAY WASHED OUT

0506 PM FLASH FLOOD WAITSFIELD 44.19N 72.83W
05/20/2011 WASHINGTON VT NEWSPAPER

BURLINGTON FREE PRESS REPORTS UP TO 20 ROADS IN
WAITSFIELD HAVE BEEN WASHED OUT

0506 PM FLASH FLOOD WAITSFIELD 44.19N 72.83W
05/20/2011 WASHINGTON VT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

CULVERT WASHED OUT ON ROLSTON ROAD

0506 PM FLASH FLOOD WAITSFIELD 44.19N 72.83W
05/20/2011 WASHINGTON VT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

FLOODS WOOD ROAD WASHED OUT

0506 PM FLASH FLOOD WAITSFIELD 44.19N 72.83W
05/20/2011 WASHINGTON VT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

LONG RD. WASHED OUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE

0506 PM FLASH FLOOD WAITSFIELD 44.19N 72.83W
05/20/2011 WASHINGTON VT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

EAST RD. WASHED OUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE

0525 PM FLASH FLOOD FLETCHER 44.68N 72.91W
05/20/2011 FRANKLIN VT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

MAYOTTE ROAD WASHED OUT AND NOT PASSABLE DUE TO FLOOD

0525 PM FLASH FLOOD FLETCHER 44.68N 72.91W
05/20/2011 FRANKLIN VT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

FAIRFIELD ROAD IN FLETCHER WASHED OUT

0529 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 NE NEW HAVEN 44.13N 73.14W
05/20/2011 ADDISON VT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

PLANK ROAD CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER

0529 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 N BRISTOL 44.15N 73.08W
05/20/2011 ADDISON VT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

HIGH WATER ON MONKTON RD IN BRISTOL

0554 PM FLASH FLOOD WAITSFIELD 44.19N 72.83W
05/20/2011 WASHINGTON VT TRAINED SPOTTER

HALF-DOZEN ROADS BOTH GRAVEL AND PAVEMENT WASHED OUT...
NEWLY INSTALLED WATER SYSTEM SEVERELY DAMAGED

0615 PM FLASH FLOOD E ST. ALBANS 44.81N 73.08W
05/20/2011 FRANKLIN VT NEWSPAPER

BURLINGTON FREE PRESS... WATER CROSSING ROUTE 36 EAST
OF ST. ALBANS

0651 PM FLASH FLOOD FLETCHER 44.68N 72.91W
05/20/2011 FRANKLIN VT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

TAYLOR ROAD IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOOD... CONES BEING PUT
UP

0651 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 NE FAIRFAX 44.68N 72.99W
05/20/2011 FRANKLIN VT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SWAMP ROAD CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER

0651 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 N FLETCHER 44.71N 72.91W
05/20/2011 FRANKLIN VT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

BOOZAN HILL ROAD CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER

0655 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 NE FLETCHER 44.72N 72.86W
05/20/2011 FRANKLIN VT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

KINSLEY ROAD CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1100047 BTV1100044 BTV1100050 BTV1100048 BTV1100049
BTV1100045 BTV1100046 BTV1100051 BTV1100057 BTV1100058 BTV1100059
BTV1100060 BTV1100061 BTV1100053 BTV1100054 BTV1100062 BTV1100063
BTV1100052 BTV1100055 BTV1100056 BTV1100064 BTV1100065 BTV1100066

$$

JMG

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KLWX [212103]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 212103
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
503 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 N ALONZAVILLE 38.98N 78.55W
05/18/2011 SHENANDOAH VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

CEDAR CREEK OUT OF ITS BANKS FORCING CLOSURE OF VAN
BUREN ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100698

$$

SBK

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KBTV [212100]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KBTV 212100
LSRBTV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
459 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HAIL WAITSFIELD 44.19N 72.83W
05/20/2011 E0.25 INCH WASHINGTON VT TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL FELL FOR ABOUT A HALF-HOUR

0406 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 N BRISTOL 44.21N 73.08W
05/20/2011 ADDISON VT NWS EMPLOYEE

SILVER STREET-4 SPOTS COVERED WITH WATER. SOME SPOTS
ARE IMPASSABLE

0425 PM HAIL 6 S FAIRFIELD 44.72N 72.95W
05/20/2011 E1.00 INCH FRANKLIN VT PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL

0445 PM FLASH FLOOD WAITSFIELD 44.19N 72.83W
05/20/2011 WASHINGTON VT TOWN OFFICE

NUMEROUS ROADS WASHED OUT IN WAITSFIELD

0445 PM FLASH FLOOD WAITSFIELD 44.19N 72.83W
05/20/2011 WASHINGTON VT PUBLIC

STREET FLOODING... PEA SIZE HAIL ALSO REPORTED

0447 PM HAIL EAST FAIRFIELD 44.78N 72.86W
05/20/2011 E0.25 INCH FRANKLIN VT PUBLIC

PEA SIZE HAIL AT THE GENERAL STORE

0447 PM HAIL BAKERSFIELD 44.78N 72.80W
05/20/2011 E0.50 INCH FRANKLIN VT PUBLIC

HALF-INCH HAIL

0500 PM FLASH FLOOD 6 S FAIRFIELD 44.72N 72.95W
05/20/2011 FRANKLIN VT PUBLIC

FIELD FLOODING AND DRIVEWAY WASHED OUT

0506 PM FLASH FLOOD WAITSFIELD 44.19N 72.83W
05/20/2011 WASHINGTON VT NEWSPAPER

BURLINGTON FREE PRESS REPORTS UP TO 20 ROADS IN
WAITSFIELD HAVE BEEN WASHED OUT

0506 PM FLASH FLOOD WAITSFIELD 44.19N 72.83W
05/20/2011 WASHINGTON VT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

CULVERT WASHED OUT ON ROLSTON ROAD

0506 PM FLASH FLOOD WAITSFIELD 44.19N 72.83W
05/20/2011 WASHINGTON VT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

FLOODS WOOD ROAD WASHED OUT

0506 PM FLASH FLOOD WAITSFIELD 44.19N 72.83W
05/20/2011 WASHINGTON VT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

LONG RD. WASHED OUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE

0506 PM FLASH FLOOD WAITSFIELD 44.19N 72.83W
05/20/2011 WASHINGTON VT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

EAST RD. WASHED OUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE

0525 PM FLASH FLOOD FLETCHER 44.68N 72.91W
05/20/2011 FRANKLIN VT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

MAYOTTE ROAD WASHED OUT AND NOT PASSABLE DUE TO FLOOD

0525 PM FLASH FLOOD FLETCHER 44.68N 72.91W
05/20/2011 FRANKLIN VT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

FAIRFIELD ROAD IN FLETCHER WASHED OUT

0529 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 NE NEW HAVEN 44.13N 73.14W
05/20/2011 ADDISON VT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

PLANK ROAD CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER

0529 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 N BRISTOL 44.15N 73.08W
05/20/2011 ADDISON VT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

HIGH WATER ON MONKTON RD IN BRISTOL

0554 PM FLASH FLOOD WAITSFIELD 44.19N 72.83W
05/20/2011 WASHINGTON VT TRAINED SPOTTER

HALF-DOZEN ROADS BOTH GRAVEL AND PAVEMENT WASHED OUT...
NEWLY INSTALLED WATER SYSTEM SEVERELY DAMAGED

0615 PM FLASH FLOOD E ST. ALBANS 44.81N 73.08W
05/20/2011 FRANKLIN VT NEWSPAPER

BURLINGTON FREE PRESS... WATER CROSSING ROUTE 36 EAST
OF ST. ALBANS

0651 PM FLASH FLOOD FLETCHER 44.68N 72.91W
05/20/2011 FRANKLIN VT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

TAYLOR ROAD IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOOD... CONES BEING PUT
UP

0651 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 NE FAIRFAX 44.68N 72.99W
05/20/2011 FRANKLIN VT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SWAMP ROAD CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER

0651 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 N FLETCHER 44.71N 72.91W
05/20/2011 FRANKLIN VT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

BOOZAN HILL ROAD CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER

0655 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 NE FLETCHER 44.72N 72.86W
05/20/2011 FRANKLIN VT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

KINSLEY ROAD CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1100047 BTV1100044 BTV1100050 BTV1100048 BTV1100049
BTV1100045 BTV1100046 BTV1100051 BTV1100057 BTV1100058 BTV1100059
BTV1100060 BTV1100061 BTV1100053 BTV1100054 BTV1100062 BTV1100063
BTV1100052 BTV1100055 BTV1100056 BTV1100064 BTV1100065 BTV1100066

$$

JMG

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KMPX [212057]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 212057
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
357 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0357 PM HAIL HUTCHINSON 44.89N 94.37W
05/21/2011 M0.25 INCH MCLEOD MN 911 CALL CENTER

&&

$$

LRS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0838

ACUS11 KWNS 212053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212053
TXZ000-212200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0838
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 316...

VALID 212053Z - 212200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 316
CONTINUES.

TSTM CELLS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG DRYLINE IN PORTIONS OF
N-CNTRL/CNTRL TX. SPLITTING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS HAVE BEEN
NOTED IN RADAR TRENDS WHICH WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL
/SOME SIGNIFICANT/ GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE OF
3000 TO 4000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 45 TO 50 KT. LOW-LEVEL
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST FEW HOURS IN THE KFWS VAD
WIND PROFILE WITH MODEST 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 15 KT. THIS SHOULD HELP
LIMIT A MORE ROBUST TORNADO THREAT...BUT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
BUOYANCY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE REMAINS RATHER MODEST WITH SWRN EXTENT
AS TOWERING CU FIELD APPEARS LESS AGITATED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. AS SUCH...NEAR-TERM TSTM INITIATION MAY PROVE DIFFICULT S
OF A JCT LATITUDE.

..GRAMS.. 05/21/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 31019872 32519784 32939766 33179705 33039654 32569658
31669711 30569794 30249847 30259880 30349900 30539910
31019872

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KFWD [212048]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 212048
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
348 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0342 PM HAIL SHIVE 31.62N 98.23W
05/21/2011 E1.00 INCH HAMILTON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

$$

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 318

WWUS20 KWNS 212043
SEL8
SPC WW 212043
KSZ000-NEZ000-220400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 318
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF TOPEKA KANSAS TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF RUSSELL
KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 316...WW 317...

DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED TSTMS ONGOING OVER CNTRL NEB INTO N-CNTRL KS
ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THEY ENCOUNTER AN INCREASING MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WHERE MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO 2000-2500 J/KG.
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW NEAR SLN SWD ALONG DRYLINE AS CAP IS
GRADUALLY ERODED. AREA PROFILER/VAD DATA SHOW VERTICALLY VEERING
WIND PROFILES WITH 35-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26025.

...MEAD

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0837

ACUS11 KWNS 212038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212038
LAZ000-ARZ000-212215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0837
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA...FAR SRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 212038Z - 212215Z

AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PROBABILITY OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH
ISSUANCE BY 22Z IS 20 PERCENT.

TSTM CLUSTERS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS NRN LA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
LIKELY AS A RESULT OF LOW-LEVEL WARM THETA-E ADVECTION ATOP AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLY MORNING MCS.
OVERALL...CORES WITHIN THESE CLUSTERS HAVE SHOWN SOME
INTENSIFICATION IN RADAR REFLEXIVITY DURING THE PAST HOUR. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEING FED BY A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT S OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG.
ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25 TO 35 KT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...VEER-BACK-VEER WIND PROFILES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FOSTER A MORE PULSE-LIKE NATURE TO UPDRAFTS. THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY
YIELD ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WET MICROBURSTS.

..GRAMS.. 05/21/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 32999379 33419316 33399179 33079143 32579127 32079131
31739146 31649174 31779236 32189327 32549373 32999379

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KOAX [212029]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 212029
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
329 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 N ROGERS 41.49N 96.92W
05/21/2011 COLFAX NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF A FUNNEL CLOUD. WAS VISIBLE FROM MANY
DIRECTIONS FROM MANY MILES AWAY. POSSIBLE TOUCHDOWN BUT
NOT CONFIRMED AT THIS TIME.

&&

$$

JMEYER

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KMPX [212028]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 212028
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
328 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0317 PM HAIL FRANKLIN 44.53N 94.89W
05/21/2011 M0.88 INCH RENVILLE MN PUBLIC

HAIL UP TO NICKLE SIZE COVERED THE GROUND.

&&

$$

MPG

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KFWD [212012]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 212012
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
311 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0308 PM HAIL HAMILTON 31.70N 98.12W
05/21/2011 E1.75 INCH HAMILTON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

US 281 AND 2905 ON THE NORTH SIDE OF HAMILTON

$$

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KSHV [212007]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 212007
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
307 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM HAIL 3 SW BELCHER 32.72N 93.87W
05/21/2011 E0.50 INCH CADDO LA TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

&&

$$

20

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211959
SWODY1
SPC AC 211958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MO VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SRN TX...

...SRN PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO 1630Z OUTLOOK. EXTENDED SLIGHT RISK SWWD
INTO SRN TX...REFERENCE WW 316...AS EXIT REGION OF 60 KT JET MAX
MOVING NEWD INTO THE ARKLATEX HAS INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG
DRYLINE. VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...MLCAPES NEAR 3500 J/KG... AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH SEVERE HAIL
THE PRIMARY THREAT. ALSO SHIFTED THE SRN PORTION OF SLIGHT RISK IN
TX SWD...SINCE SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE A FEW OF
THE STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE DRYLINE IN CENTRAL TX WILL SHIFT
EWD ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

RELATIVELY THICK LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NERN TX/SERN OK SHOULD DECREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS JET MAX MOVES NEWD AND LARGE SCALE LIFT
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE STORMS MAY CONTINUE NEWD FROM CENTRAL AR INTO
WRN TN OVERNIGHT...BUT STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS THEY
MOVE INTO A LESS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

....ERN SD/SRN MN INTO CENTRAL PLAINS...
HAVE RAISED TORNADO PROBABILITIES TO 5% IN FAR SERN NEB AND WRN IA
WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES MAY IMPROVE ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF TORNADO
OR TWO. SLIGHT RISK WAS EXTENDED WWD ACROSS FAR SRN NEB AND NRN KS
AS VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING EWD INTO THE AREA. ALSO INCREASED WIND PROBABILITIES
ACROSS NRN MO AND IA WHERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO A
SMALL LINEAR MCS THIS EVENING...WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE.

..IMY.. 05/21/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011/

...ERN SD/SRN MN INTO CNTRL PLAINS...

IN THE WAKE OF INITIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE MID
MO VALLEY...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT UPSTREAM
IMPULSE OVER WRN PARTS OF NEB/KS. THIS LATTER FEATURE IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT NEWD THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY TODAY PROVIDING FAVORABLE
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR STRONG-SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
WEAK COLD FRONT/PRESSURE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SURFACE LOW
S OF BIS SEWD INTO ERN NEB WILL LIKELY SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR THIS
STORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE REGION.

12Z OAX SOUNDING SHOWED THAT THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS ONLY WEAKLY
CAPPED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8 C/KM. DAYTIME
HEATING...COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND
THE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500-2500 J/KG.
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC...EXHIBITING A
VEERING-BACKING PATTERN. NONETHELESS...THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND SEASONABLY COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

FARTHER S INTO ERN KS AND MO...12Z TOP SOUNDING INDICATED A STRONGER
CAP RELATIVE TO OAX WITH STORM INITIATION LIKELY BEING DELAYED UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT AREAS GENERALLY N OF I-70 WILL SEE THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
TSTMS...WITH AREAL COVERAGE DECREASING WITH SWD EXTENT. HERE
TOO...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH 30-35 KT OF
DEEP WLY SHEAR...SETUP WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED
MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
HAZARD. STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS WITH SOME THREAT FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL CONTINUING ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT.

...SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...

MID MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR
MASS --SEE 12Z BRO/CRP SOUNDINGS-- EXTENDS FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY
INTO SRN LA...ALONG AND S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A
NOCTURNAL MCS...THE REMAINS OF WHICH ARE STILL IN PROGRESS OVER
W-CNTRL LA. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS HIGH THETAE AIR WILL BE
ADVECTED NWD INTO NERN TX/SERN OK TODAY AHEAD OF DRYLINE THAT IS
FORECAST TO MIX EWD TO NEAR OR E OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE NRN FRINGE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE
PLUME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3500 J/KG.

WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE OVER WRN TX /EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/
WILL TRANSLATE EWD AND PROVIDE FAVORABLE BACKGROUND FORCING FOR
DRYLINE TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. REGIONAL
PROFILER/VAD DATA INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A 50-60 KT MIDLEVEL JET
STREAK ACROSS REGION TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.
INITIALLY...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...A RISK
FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SLY LLJ.
THEREAFTER...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE
INTO AN MCS WITH A WIND/HAIL THREAT CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY/MID SOUTH.

...OH VALLEY...

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO DIURNAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY WELL-DEFINED FORCING
MECHANISMS. DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN IL INTO CNTRL IND
AS OF LATE MORNING MAY SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY
VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES INVOF WARM FRONT WITH A RELATIVELY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. THE PRIMARY
FACTORS LIMITING A MORE ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEAR TO BE
THE MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. STILL...ISOLATED
STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK FOR GUSTY
WINDS...SOME HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.

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KSHV [211954]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 211954
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
254 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM HAIL 4 E BLANCHARD 32.59N 93.82W
05/21/2011 E0.75 INCH CADDO LA TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

20

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KDLH [211945]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 211945
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
245 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0243 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 SW HINCKLEY 46.00N 92.95W
05/21/2011 M2.30 INCH PINE MN CO-OP OBSERVER

RAIN SINCE 6 PM YESTERDAY. MOST RAIN FELL TODAY

&&

$$

RHLUCHAN

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KLWX [211938]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KLWX 211938
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
338 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 AM FLASH FLOOD OLD FIELDS 39.13N 78.95W
05/18/2011 HARDY WV 911 CALL CENTER

NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY. UP TO 3
FEET OF WATER ON ROADS. TREES DOWN DUE TO SATURATED
SOIL.

&&

CORRECTED LOCATION...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100656

$$

SBK

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KLWX [211934]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KLWX 211934
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
334 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 AM FLASH FLOOD MOOREFIELD 39.06N 78.97W
05/18/2011 HARDY WV 911 CALL CENTER

NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED. UP TO 3 FEET OF WATER ON ROADS.
TREES DOWN DUE TO SATURATED SOIL.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...EVENT

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100656

$$

SBK

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0836

ACUS11 KWNS 211934
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211933
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-212100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0836
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NERN KS...FAR SERN NEB...NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 211933Z - 212100Z

CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER N CNTRL
KS...AND A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED MAINLY FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT NWD ACROSS KS/SRN NEB WITH AN
EXPANDING CU FIELD. WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND CONTINUED
HEATING...THE CAP IS NEARLY GONE. DEEPER MIXING IS OCCURRING OVER
NWRN KS/SWRN NEB...WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS AND HIGH BASED CU AND
SHOWERS DEVELOPING. CONVERGENCE SHOULD INCREASE AS WELL DOWNSTREAM
WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY EXISTS.

THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...AND
WITH 30-40 KT MEAN MID LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE...STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO
MOVE QUICKLY AND FORWARD PROPAGATE FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ANY
TORNADO THREAT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY FROM W TO E AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
VEER...HOWEVER...LONGER DURATION OF BACKED WINDS SFC TO 850 WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE MO VALLEY...AND DEPENDING ON STORM MODE...A FEW
CELLS MAY ACQUIRE ROTATION AND/OR PRODUCE A TORNADO.

..JEWELL.. 05/21/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON 38949597 38909866 39019912 39479939 40109876 40519730
40559454 40249422 39739408 39159417 39049464 38949597

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 317

WWUS20 KWNS 211926
SEL7
SPC WW 211926
IAZ000-NEZ000-220300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 317
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN IOWA
EASTERN NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF BEATRICE NEBRASKA TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
SPENCER IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 316...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM
TRANSLATING NEWD ACROSS REGION. AMBIENT AIR MASS IS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD INTENSIFY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS MIDLEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS...RESULTING IN A
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND COLD MID-TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES...LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24020.

...MEAD

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KUNR [211922]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 211922
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
122 PM MDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0121 PM HEAVY RAIN 15 NNE RECLUSE 44.95N 105.64W
05/21/2011 M4.50 INCH CAMPBELL WY TRAINED SPOTTER

2 DAY TOTAL

&&

$$

MERICKSO

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KGGW [211921]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 211921
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
120 PM MDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM HEAVY RAIN GLENDIVE 47.11N 104.71W
05/21/2011 M0.82 INCH DAWSON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL TOTAL FROM 6AM YESTERDAY TO 6AM TODAY. STILL
RAINING HEAVILY. WATER STANDING ON THE FOOTBALL FIELD.

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 8 N GLENDIVE 47.22N 104.71W
05/21/2011 M1.48 INCH DAWSON MT PUBLIC

RAINFALL TOTAL FROM YESTERDAY THROUGH AROUND 9AM TODAY.
STILL RAINING.

1100 AM HEAVY RAIN 10 N BLOOMFIELD 47.56N 104.92W
05/21/2011 E2.50 INCH DAWSON MT PUBLIC

RAINFALL TOTAL FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MORNING TODAY.

&&

$$

ASCHNETZ

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KGGW [211852]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 211852
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1252 PM MDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1155 AM HEAVY RAIN 9 NW CARLYLE 46.73N 104.22W
05/21/2011 M2.14 INCH WIBAUX MT TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL AS OF 1150AM AND IT IS STILL RAINING.

1236 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SW HINSDALE 48.35N 107.15W
05/21/2011 M1.10 INCH VALLEY MT CO-OP OBSERVER

RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE 9PM YESTERDAY. RAINING VERY HEAVY
NOW. WATER IS FLOWING DOWN THE LARB HILLS. SOIL HAS BEGUN
TO SLOUGH OFF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE HILLS.

&&

$$

ASCHNETZ

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 316

WWUS20 KWNS 211847
SEL6
SPC WW 211847
TXZ000-220200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 316
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
145 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 145 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF AUSTIN TEXAS TO 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
STEPHENVILLE TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR ALONG SLOW-MOVING DRYLINE. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IS
HOT AND QUITE MOIST WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3500+ J/KG. WHILE
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...THE PRESENCE OF
AROUND 40 KT WLY FLOW IN THE MIDLEVELS IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27020.

...MEAD

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KLWX [211835]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 211835
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
235 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 WSW MARTINSBURG 39.45N 77.98W
05/17/2011 BERKELEY WV NEWSPAPER

TUSCARORA CREEK OVERFLOWED ITS BANKS FORCING NUMEROUS
ROAD CLOSURES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100697

$$

SBK

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0835

ACUS11 KWNS 211818
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211818
TXZ000-212015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0835
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0118 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 211818Z - 212015Z

ALTHOUGH TIMING OF TSTM INITIATION REMAINS UNCLEAR...AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO SHOULD FORM ALONG DRYLINE INVOF HILL
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE
CONDUCIVE TO LARGE HAIL /SOME SIGNIFICANT/ AND WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE
A SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE PRIOR TO 20-21Z.

18Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED DRYLINE FROM 40 E SPS S/SSWD
TO NEAR JCT AND DRT. CU FIELD INVOF DRYLINE APPEARS INCREASINGLY
AGITATED OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY. MODIFIED
MORNING RAOBS/RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE AIR MASS IS LARGELY
UNCAPPED AND HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 2500 TO 4000
J/KG. DESPITE NEUTRAL UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT...CONTINUED
HEATING AND MODEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD
RESULT IN A FEW TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON /SUPPORTED BY OPERATIONAL AND
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE/. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...35-40 KT WLYS AT 500 MB WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD YIELD LARGE
HAIL AS THE PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT /SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT/.

..GRAMS.. 05/21/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 29990016 30879909 31399864 32269823 32889796 32999731
32619708 32039723 30679794 29849908 29409993 29430023
29670048 29990016

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KFWD [211817]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 211817
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
117 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0840 PM HAIL 5 SW BUFFALO 31.42N 96.13W
05/20/2011 E1.00 INCH LEON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS FELL NEAR HWY 79 HALFWAY
BETWEEN JEWETT AND BUFFALO.

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0834

ACUS11 KWNS 211752
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211751
IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-211945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0834
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...SERN SD...WRN IA...SWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 211751Z - 211945Z

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITH MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT INITIALLY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE
MO RIVER WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S F. THE 12Z OAX SOUNDING
INDICATED STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...WITH NEARLY 2000 J/KG MUCAPE
WHEN MODIFIED FOR CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WITH CONTINUED
HEATING...LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL EXIST.

MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW HAS RESULTED
IN AN AREA OF SHOWERS PRODUCING OUTFLOW OVER CNTRL NEB.
RECENTLY...SURFACE BASED CU HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE. THIS MAY INSTIGATE STORM FORMATION. ANOTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE
INITIATION WILL BE ALONG THE NWD RETURN OF MORE ROBUST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR LNK SWWD TOWARD HYS.

WITH TIME...WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE CONVECTION...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. WHILE HAIL WILL BE THE INITIAL THREAT...A TORNADO THREAT
MAY DEVELOP LATER.

..JEWELL.. 05/21/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON 40989436 40439491 40089573 40049662 40049743 40139779
40409778 41109708 41759694 42569713 43229772 43629759
43929648 43809522 43169419 42319388 41639400 41479400
40989436

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KARX [211749]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KARX 211749
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1249 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1240 PM HAIL ZUMBRO FALLS 44.29N 92.43W
05/21/2011 E0.25 INCH WABASHA MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

TMS

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 211725
SWODY2
SPC AC 211724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A BROAD AREA FROM THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE OH...TN AND MID/UPPER MS VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL STATES AND MS
VALLEY ON SUNDAY...WITH VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER MN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE SURFACE LOW SWD
INTO NWRN MO/S CENTRAL KS. A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE SHOULD NOT MIX
AS FAR EAST ON SUNDAY AS TODAY... DUE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO SWRN U.S. DRYLINE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR A ICT-FSI-ABI LINE AT
LATE AFTERNOON. AN UNUSUALLY LARGE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS INCLUDED ON
THE OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY GIVEN AT LEAST WIDESPREAD LARGE SCALE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH AND PRESENCE OF A LARGE RESERVOIR OF
WARM AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EAST OF THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE.

...TX/OK/SERN KS/SRN MO/AR/NWRN LA..
DIURNAL HEATING AND THE COMBINATION OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND LOWER 70 SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS...WITH MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. WHILE STRONG FORCING
IS NOT FORESEEN...THE PRESENCE OF WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT AND
CONVERGENCE NEAR DRYLINE/LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS FORMING DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT...STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE
INTO SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...SO A SIGNIFICANT AREA HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE PROBABILITIES.
ALSO...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BACK LATER IN THE DAY...IN
RESPONSE TO SWRN U.S. TROUGH...WITH A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE. IF IT
BECOMES APPARENT THAT GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED THAN
CURRENTLY THOUGHT...PORTIONS OF AREA COULD BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE
RISK ON THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK.

AN MCS OR TWO LIKELY WILL EVOLVE FROM THESE STORMS SUNDAY EVENING
AND TRACK EWD INTO MO/AR/ERN TX/NWRN LA WITH A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS.

...ERN IA/IL/WI AND UPPER MI...
EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS AND OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE SOME
DURING THE DAY AND ALLOW AN AXIS OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION TO
OCCUR AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW/COLD FRONT. BOTH NAM/GFS 12Z RUNS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH 60 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX...ON SERN SIDE OF
SYSTEM...SHIFTING NEWD FROM SWRN IA INTO SWRN WI. ALTHOUGH HARD TO
PREDICT WHERE THE STRONGER HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL BE
LOCATED...FORCING WITH THIS SPEED MAX INDICATES SEVERE STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP WHERE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS MOST
FAVORABLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE. ALSO...STRENGTHENING AND VEERING LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO YIELD FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR TORNADOES. DEPENDING
ON THE INSTABILITY...THE DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT SPREADING EWD INTO THE LOWER MI
OVERNIGHT.

...LWR OH/TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES INDICATE THE SEVERE
EVOLUTION IN THIS REGION IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION WILL STABILIZE SOME AREAS AND LEAVE BEHIND POTENTIAL
STORM-DEVELOPING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ALSO...ANY REMAINING CLUSTERS
OF STORMS ONGOING DURING THE MORNING MAY REINTENSIFY LATER IN THE
DAY. IN ANY REGARD...WHERE AIR MASS WARMING OCCURS...SHEAR PLUS
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS...AS
WELL AS SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. GIVEN DEEP SWLY FLOW ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER... UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FEW ORGANIZED LINEAR MCS/S
ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH SEVERE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.

..IMY.. 05/21/2011

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KEWX [211657]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KEWX 211657
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1157 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0229 PM HAIL 10 N LLANO 30.90N 98.67W
05/20/2011 E0.88 INCH LLANO TX TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL SOUTHWEST OF BABY HEAD.

0330 PM HAIL 17 WNW BURNET 30.86N 98.49W
05/20/2011 E1.00 INCH LLANO TX PUBLIC

HALF INCH HAIL TO NEAR 1 INCH HAIL REPORTED NEAR THE
GREENWOON CREEK RANCH.

0415 PM HAIL 17 NE TOW 31.03N 98.23W
05/20/2011 M0.88 INCH BURNET TX PUBLIC

NICKEL TO DIME HAIL.

0421 PM HAIL 10 N BURNET 30.91N 98.24W
05/20/2011 E0.75 INCH BURNET TX PUBLIC

0516 PM HAIL BERTRAM 30.74N 98.05W
05/20/2011 M0.25 INCH BURNET TX PUBLIC

0751 PM HAIL BEE CAVE 30.31N 97.96W
05/20/2011 M0.88 INCH TRAVIS TX PUBLIC

0755 PM HAIL 2 W DRIFTWOOD 30.12N 98.07W
05/20/2011 M1.00 INCH HAYS TX BROADCAST MEDIA

0759 PM HAIL 5 SSW DRIPPING SPRINGS 30.12N 98.12W
05/20/2011 M0.75 INCH HAYS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

MOSTLY PEA SIZED BUT A FEW LARGER HAILSTONES TO PENNY
SIZE... LASTED 5 MINUTES. REPORTED ON COUNTY ROAD 191
WEST OF RANCH ROAD 12.

0810 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 N AUSTIN 30.41N 97.75W
05/20/2011 TRAVIS TX PUBLIC

MEDIA RELAYED REPORT FROM PUBLIC OF TREE DAMAGE IN THE
ALLENDALE NEIGHBORHOOD.

0811 PM HAIL 2 ESE BEE CAVE 30.30N 97.93W
05/20/2011 E0.75 INCH TRAVIS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0812 PM HAIL 4 NNE AUSTIN 30.36N 97.73W
05/20/2011 M0.25 INCH TRAVIS TX COCORAHS

0818 PM HAIL 4 NNW AUSTIN 30.36N 97.78W
05/20/2011 M0.50 INCH TRAVIS TX ASOS

PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL THAT LASTED 4 MINUTES REPORTED
IN CAMP MABRY.

0818 PM HAIL 2 SE DRIFTWOOD 30.10N 98.01W
05/20/2011 E1.00 INCH HAYS TX CO-OP OBSERVER

PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL ALONG WITH AN INCH OF RAINFALL
IN LESS THAN AN HOUR.

0820 PM HAIL DRIFTWOOD 30.12N 98.03W
05/20/2011 E1.00 INCH HAYS TX PUBLIC

NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL

0820 PM HAIL 4 SSW DRIPPING SPRINGS 30.13N 98.11W
05/20/2011 E1.00 INCH HAYS TX COCORAHS

PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL NEAR DRIPPING SPRINGS.

0840 PM HAIL TANGLEWOOD FOREST 30.17N 97.84W
05/20/2011 M0.25 INCH TRAVIS TX COCORAHS

0850 PM HAIL 7 NE WIMBERLEY 30.06N 98.02W
05/20/2011 E0.88 INCH HAYS TX PUBLIC

NICKEL SIZE HAIL

0901 PM HAIL 4 SE UHLAND 29.92N 97.74W
05/20/2011 M0.88 INCH CALDWELL TX COCORAHS

NICKEL SIZE HAIL

0915 PM HAIL 4 SE ELGIN 30.31N 97.33W
05/20/2011 M1.75 INCH BASTROP TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL SOUTHEAST OF ELGIN JUST EAST OF
HIGHWAY 95

0917 PM HAIL 1 WSW ELGIN 30.34N 97.38W
05/20/2011 M1.00 INCH BASTROP TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0925 PM HAIL 4 SSE ELGIN 30.30N 97.34W
05/20/2011 M1.00 INCH BASTROP TX TRAINED SPOTTER

1001 PM HAIL 5 W CEDAR CREEK 30.08N 97.58W
05/20/2011 M0.70 INCH BASTROP TX TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL.

1017 PM HAIL 6 WSW CEDAR CREEK 30.06N 97.59W
05/20/2011 M1.25 INCH BASTROP TX EMERGENCY MNGR

HAIL AT LEGEND OAKS DRIVE AND HIGHWAY 21 IN CEDAR
CREEK.

1026 PM HAIL 5 WSW CEDAR CREEK 30.04N 97.58W
05/20/2011 M0.75 INCH BASTROP TX TRAINED SPOTTER

HAILING PEA TO PENNY SIZED HAIL FOR THE LAST 10
MINUTES.

1030 PM HAIL 1 ENE CEDAR CREEK 30.09N 97.48W
05/20/2011 M0.50 INCH BASTROP TX EMERGENCY MNGR

HAIL ON VOSS PARKWAY IN CEDAR CREEK.

1032 PM HAIL 5 SE CEDAR CREEK 30.03N 97.44W
05/20/2011 M1.00 INCH BASTROP TX PUBLIC

PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

1039 PM HAIL 5 SSE CEDAR CREEK 30.02N 97.47W
05/20/2011 M0.50 INCH BASTROP TX PUBLIC

PEA TO HALF INCH HAIL.

1050 PM HAIL 1 NW LOCKHART 29.88N 97.69W
05/20/2011 M1.00 INCH CALDWELL TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1100198 EWX1100199 EWX1100200 EWX1100201 EWX1100202
EWX1100203 EWX1100205 EWX1100204 EWX1100213 EWX1100207 EWX1100209
EWX1100208 EWX1100222 EWX1100206 EWX1100221 EWX1100210 EWX1100225
EWX1100223 EWX1100224 EWX1100211 EWX1100212 EWX1100214 EWX1100215
EWX1100216 EWX1100218 EWX1100217 EWX1100219 EWX1100220

$$

PM

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KEWX [211648]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 211648
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1148 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0850 PM HAIL 7 NE WIMBERLEY 30.06N 98.02W
05/20/2011 E0.88 INCH HAYS TX PUBLIC

NICKEL SIZE HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1100225

$$

PM

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KGGW [211644]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 211644
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1044 AM MDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0828 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SW HINSDALE 48.35N 107.15W
05/20/2011 M0.00 INCH VALLEY MT CO-OP OBSERVER

0.9 INCH STORM TOTAL SO FAR

0600 AM HEAVY RAIN GLENDIVE 47.11N 104.71W
05/21/2011 M1.03 INCH DAWSON MT CO-OP OBSERVER

RAINFALL AS OF 6AM. LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY FALLING.

0630 AM HEAVY RAIN 8 ENE FRAZER 48.10N 105.88W
05/21/2011 M0.98 INCH VALLEY MT COCORAHS

RAINFALL TOTAL AS OF 630AM.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 16 WSW GLENDIVE 47.02N 105.03W
05/21/2011 M0.97 INCH DAWSON MT COCORAHS

RAINFALL TOTAL AS OF 7AM.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 WSW GLENDIVE 47.10N 104.75W
05/21/2011 M1.04 INCH DAWSON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL TOTAL AS OF 7AM. RAIN IS STILL FALLING.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN S FROID 48.33N 104.50W
05/21/2011 M1.30 INCH ROOSEVELT MT COCORAHS

RAINFALL TOTAL AS OF 7AM.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 S SAVAGE 47.44N 104.34W
05/21/2011 M1.36 INCH RICHLAND MT COCORAHS

RAINFALL TOTAL AS OF 7AM.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 W GLENDIVE 47.11N 104.75W
05/21/2011 M1.04 INCH DAWSON MT COCORAHS

RAINFALL TOTAL AS OF 7AM.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 11 S PLENTYWOOD 48.62N 104.56W
05/21/2011 M1.00 INCH SHERIDAN MT COCORAHS

RAINFALL TOTAL AS OF 7AM.

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 8 SSW NASHUA 48.03N 106.42W
05/21/2011 M1.00 INCH MCCONE MT COCORAHS

RAINFALL TOTAL AS OF 8AM.

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 WNW OUTLOOK 48.92N 104.88W
05/21/2011 M1.00 INCH SHERIDAN MT COCORAHS

RAINFALL TOTAL AS OF 8AM.

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 NNE GLENDIVE 47.20N 104.65W
05/21/2011 M1.10 INCH DAWSON MT COCORAHS

RAINFALL TOTAL AS OF 8AM.

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 ENE SCOBEY 48.80N 105.40W
05/21/2011 M1.09 INCH DANIELS MT COCORAHS

RAINFALL TOTAL AS OF 8AM.

0914 AM HEAVY RAIN 35 S MALTA 47.85N 107.87W
05/21/2011 M1.05 INCH PHILLIPS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL TOTAL FROM OVERNIGHT. RAIN IS STILL FALLING.
STORM TOTAL SO FAR IS 1.6 INCHES.

1035 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 NNE WINNETT 47.08N 108.30W
05/21/2011 M0.86 INCH PETROLEUM MT TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE 1025PM YESTERDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS
CURRENTLY FALLING. STORM TOTAL SO FAR IS 2.17 INCHES.

1035 AM FLOOD 6 NNE WINNETT 47.08N 108.30W
05/21/2011 PETROLEUM MT TRAINED SPOTTER

BOX ELDER CREEK IS FLOWING SWIFTLY AND IS NOW OUT OF ITS
BANKS. THE LOW LANDS ARE FLOODING.

&&

$$

ASCHNETZ

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KEWX [211644]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KEWX 211644
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1144 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0818 PM HAIL 2 SE DRIFTWOOD 30.10N 98.01W
05/20/2011 E1.00 INCH HAYS TX CO-OP OBSERVER

PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL ALONG WITH AN INCH OF RAINFALL
IN LESS THAN AN HOUR.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

EVENT NUMBER EWX1100222

$$

PM

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KEWX [211635]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 211635
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1135 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 PM HAIL 4 SE ELGIN 30.31N 97.33W
05/20/2011 M1.75 INCH BASTROP TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL SOUTHEAST OF ELGIN JUST EAST OF
HIGHWAY 95

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1100224

$$

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211618
SWODY1
SPC AC 211617

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MO VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL TX...

...ERN SD/SRN MN INTO CNTRL PLAINS...

IN THE WAKE OF INITIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE MID
MO VALLEY...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT UPSTREAM
IMPULSE OVER WRN PARTS OF NEB/KS. THIS LATTER FEATURE IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT NEWD THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY TODAY PROVIDING FAVORABLE
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR STRONG-SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
WEAK COLD FRONT/PRESSURE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SURFACE LOW
S OF BIS SEWD INTO ERN NEB WILL LIKELY SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR THIS
STORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE REGION.

12Z OAX SOUNDING SHOWED THAT THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS ONLY WEAKLY
CAPPED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8 C/KM. DAYTIME
HEATING...COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND
THE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500-2500 J/KG.
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC...EXHIBITING A
VEERING-BACKING PATTERN. NONETHELESS...THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND SEASONABLY COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

FARTHER S INTO ERN KS AND MO...12Z TOP SOUNDING INDICATED A STRONGER
CAP RELATIVE TO OAX WITH STORM INITIATION LIKELY BEING DELAYED UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT AREAS GENERALLY N OF I-70 WILL SEE THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
TSTMS...WITH AREAL COVERAGE DECREASING WITH SWD EXTENT. HERE
TOO...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH 30-35 KT OF
DEEP WLY SHEAR...SETUP WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED
MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
HAZARD. STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS WITH SOME THREAT FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL CONTINUING ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT.

...SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...

MID MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR
MASS --SEE 12Z BRO/CRP SOUNDINGS-- EXTENDS FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY
INTO SRN LA...ALONG AND S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A
NOCTURNAL MCS...THE REMAINS OF WHICH ARE STILL IN PROGRESS OVER
W-CNTRL LA. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS HIGH THETAE AIR WILL BE
ADVECTED NWD INTO NERN TX/SERN OK TODAY AHEAD OF DRYLINE THAT IS
FORECAST TO MIX EWD TO NEAR OR E OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE NRN FRINGE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE
PLUME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3500 J/KG.

WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE OVER WRN TX /EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/
WILL TRANSLATE EWD AND PROVIDE FAVORABLE BACKGROUND FORCING FOR
DRYLINE TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. REGIONAL
PROFILER/VAD DATA INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A 50-60 KT MIDLEVEL JET
STREAK ACROSS REGION TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.
INITIALLY...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...A RISK
FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SLY LLJ.
THEREAFTER...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE
INTO AN MCS WITH A WIND/HAIL THREAT CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY/MID SOUTH.

...OH VALLEY...

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO DIURNAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY WELL-DEFINED FORCING
MECHANISMS. DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN IL INTO CNTRL IND
AS OF LATE MORNING MAY SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY
VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES INVOF WARM FRONT WITH A RELATIVELY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. THE PRIMARY
FACTORS LIMITING A MORE ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEAR TO BE
THE MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. STILL...ISOLATED
STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK FOR GUSTY
WINDS...SOME HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.

..MEAD/GRAMS.. 05/21/2011

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KEWX [211604]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 211604
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1104 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0901 PM HAIL 4 SE UHLAND 29.92N 97.74W
05/20/2011 M0.88 INCH CALDWELL TX COCORAHS

NICKEL SIZE HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1100223

$$

PM

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KEWX [211553]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 211553
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1053 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0832 PM HAIL 2 SE DRIFTWOOD 30.10N 98.01W
05/20/2011 E1.00 INCH HAYS TX CO-OP OBSERVER

PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL ALONG WITH AN INCH OF RAINFALL
IN LESS THAN AN HOUR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1100222

$$

PM

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