SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212038
LAZ000-ARZ000-212215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0837
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA...FAR SRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 212038Z - 212215Z
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PROBABILITY OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH
ISSUANCE BY 22Z IS 20 PERCENT.
TSTM CLUSTERS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS NRN LA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
LIKELY AS A RESULT OF LOW-LEVEL WARM THETA-E ADVECTION ATOP AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLY MORNING MCS.
OVERALL...CORES WITHIN THESE CLUSTERS HAVE SHOWN SOME
INTENSIFICATION IN RADAR REFLEXIVITY DURING THE PAST HOUR. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEING FED BY A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT S OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG.
ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25 TO 35 KT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...VEER-BACK-VEER WIND PROFILES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FOSTER A MORE PULSE-LIKE NATURE TO UPDRAFTS. THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY
YIELD ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WET MICROBURSTS.
..GRAMS.. 05/21/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 32999379 33419316 33399179 33079143 32579127 32079131
31739146 31649174 31779236 32189327 32549373 32999379
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