MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2059

ACUS11 KWNS 060252
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060251
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-060415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2059
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0951 PM CDT FRI OCT 05 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB/SERN SD/SWRN MN/NWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 060251Z - 060415Z

ELEVATED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY ATTM ACROSS N CENTRAL/NERN
NEB. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

STORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL JET...WITHIN ENVIRONMENT FEATURING 1500 TO 2500 J/KG
ELEVATED CAPE. AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE NWD/NEWD INTO SERN SD
AND VICINITY APPEARS POSSIBLE -- DESPITE MODEL FORECASTS -- AS
LOW-LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THOUGH SHEAR WITHIN THE UNSTABLE LAYER IS SOMEWHAT WEAK -- WITH ONLY
A MODEST INCREASE IN FLOW WITH HEIGHT...A FEW STRONGER CELLS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL.

.GOSS.. 10/06/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...UNR...

42289943 43139953 44129859 44359625 43069590 42329642
41849867

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KGRB [060252]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 060252
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
950 PM CDT FRI OCT 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM TSTM WND DMG CAROLINE 44.71N 88.88W
10/05/2007 SHAWANO WI BROADCAST MEDIA

A FEW TREES DOWN AND A CAR OVERTURNED. REPORT RELAYED TO
NWS BY WFRV TV. TIME IS ESTIMATED.

&&

$$

MG

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KLBF [060248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 060248
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
947 PM CDT FRI OCT 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 PM HAIL 9 NNW ONEILL 42.58N 98.71W
10/05/2007 E1.00 INCH HOLT NE PUBLIC

HAIL FROM 3/4 TO 1 INCH FROM 930-940 PM CDT

&&

$$

CHENDERS

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KKEY [060220]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 060220
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1020 PM EDT FRI OCT 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0723 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
10/05/2007 M43 MPH GMZ075 FL C-MAN STATION

A THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OF 37 KNOTS WAS MEASURED AT THE
SAND KEY LIGHT C-MAN STATION AT 723 PM EDT.

&&

$$

BS

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KAPX [060141]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 060141
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
941 PM EDT FRI OCT 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0912 PM HAIL 1 N INDIAN RIVER 45.43N 84.62W
10/05/2007 E0.75 INCH CHEBOYGAN MI TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE AND THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
ESTIMATED BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH REPORTED BY SPOTTER.

&&

$$

ADAM

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KDMX [060130]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 060130
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
829 PM CDT FRI OCT 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0554 PM TORNADO 3 ENE BUSSEY 41.23N 92.83W
10/02/2007 MAHASKA IA PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTS TORNADO TOUCHDOWN IN OPEN FIELDS AND
PASTURE. ON THE GROUND FOR 4 MINUTES. KCCI TWIN CEDARS
WEB CAM VERIFIES TORNADO. LOCATION ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

0555 PM TORNADO 2 SE BUSSEY 41.18N 92.85W
10/02/2007 MAHASKA IA TRAINED SPOTTER

BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN IN OPEN FIELD. ROTATION WAS
ANTI-CYCLONIC. LOCATION ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&
DELAYED REPORTS FROM TUESDAY OCTOBER 2ND SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.
$$

RDONAVON

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 060054
SWODY1
SPC AC 060051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT FRI OCT 05 2007

VALID 060100Z - 061200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
DOMINANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURE REMAINS DEEPENING WRN CONUS
TROUGH...ANCHORED BY CYCLONE NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
OVER WRN NV. SEVERAL WEAK/LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS ARE EJECTING
NEWD...WITHIN BROAD BELT OF SWLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM. THESE ARE EVIDENT
OVER NRN LS...SRN PORTIONS MN/WI...SD AND PERHAPS LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY INVOF CA/AZ BORDER. AT SFC...WAVY FRONTAL ZONE IS ANALYZED
FROM COMPLEX LOW OVER WY...SEWD OVER NEB SANDHILLS...NEWD THROUGH
WEAK LOW BETWEEN MHE-PIR...ENEWD THEN EWD OVER S-CENTRAL MN AND
NWRN/N-CENTRAL WI. MOST OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT NWD ACROSS
SD/MN OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT...WHILE WY LOW IS PROGGED TO
CONSOLIDATE E OF BIGHORNS AS LEE-SIDE CYCLONE.

..UPPER MS RIVER REGION...
SFC BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MORE UNLIKELY WITH TIME
GIVEN ONSET OF SFC COOLING...AND STRONG CAPPING EVIDENT IN
COMBINATION OF 00Z MPX RAOB...LAST FEW HOURS WORTH OF ACARS
SOUNDINGS...AND CURRENT/NOWCAST RUC SOUNDINGS. AS BOUNDARY LAYER S
OF FRONT DECOUPLES...AND LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES OVER
WY...ASSOCIATED ADJUSTMENT OF LOW LEVEL MASS FIELDS SHOULD RESULT IN
REFOCUS/STRENGTHENING OF WAA REGIME ACROSS MN...WITH 40-50 KT SWLY
LLJ POSSIBLE. DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TSTMS IS POSSIBLE MAINLY N
OF SFC WARM FRONT...AS MOIST PARCELS ISENTROPICALLY ASCEND TO LFC.
SUBTLE SUPPORT ALOFT ALSO MAY COME FROM MESOSCALE AREA OF MIDLEVEL
ASCENT AHEAD OF SD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ELEVATED MUCAPES SHOULD RANGE
FROM LESS THAN 1000 J/KG OVER NRN MN TO AROUND 2500 J/KG ABOVE SFC
FRONT. EFFECTIVE SHEARS 40-50 KT INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
TO ORGANIZE WITH ISOLATED SVR HAIL POSSIBLE.

.EDWARDS.. 10/06/2007

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KREV [052316]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 052316
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
414 PM PDT FRI OCT 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N CARSON CITY 39.18N 119.75W
10/04/2007 CARSON CITY NV TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER ONE MILE NORTH OF CARSON CITY
REPORTED DAMAGE FROM STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. A
FEW 6-INCH DIAMETER COTTONWOOD TREE LIMBS WERE DOWNED.
ONE LIMB FELL ON A SHED DENTING ITS ROOF.

&&

$$

O'HARA

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KPSR [052221]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 052221
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
321 PM MST FRI OCT 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 AM DUST STORM 1 N EL CENTRO 32.78N 115.55W
10/05/2007 IMPERIAL CA TRAINED SPOTTER

BLOWING DUST REDUCED VISIBILTY TO 1/2 MILE WITH ESTIMATED
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. SMALL TREE BRANCHES SNAPPED OFF IN
EL CENTRO.

1245 PM DUST STORM SEELEY 32.79N 115.68W
10/05/2007 IMPERIAL CA TRAINED SPOTTER

VISIBILITY REDUCED TO UNDER ONE QUARTER OF A MILE IN
BLOWING DUST.

0100 PM DUST STORM 12 W EL CENTRO 32.79N 115.77W
10/05/2007 IMPERIAL CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

INTERSTATE 8 CLOSED FROM IN-KO-PAH PARK NEAR THE SAN
DIEGO-IMPERIAL COUNTY BORDER EAST TO DUNAWAY ROAD IN EL
CENTRO. SOME TRAFFIC RE-ROUTED SOUTH FROM OCOTILLO TO
HIGHWAY 98 TO TRAVEL FROM EL CENTRO EAST TO MIDWAY WELL.

&&

$$

JROGERS

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KLKN [052216]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KLKN 052216
LSRLKN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
315 PM PDT FRI OCT 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0305 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 N RYNDON 40.98N 115.61W
10/05/2007 M0.46 INCH ELKO NV CO-OP OBSERVER

0.46 INCHES OF RAIN AND 1/4 INCH OF SNOW FELL AT ELBURZ.

0305 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 N RYNDON 40.98N 115.61W
10/05/2007 M0.00 INCH ELKO NV CO-OP OBSERVER

0.46 INCHES OR RAIN AND A 1/4 INCH OF SNOW FELL AT
ELBURZ.

&&

$$

GPHILLIP

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KHNX [052201]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS56 KHNX 052201
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
300 PM PDT FRI OCT 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0532 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 NNW RIDGECREST 35.76N 117.73W
10/05/2007 M68.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

MEASURED AT THE CLASS III 16C RAWS SITE.

0614 AM NON-TSTM WND GST JAWBONE CANYON 35.29N 118.23W
10/05/2007 M51.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

0945 AM NON-TSTM WND GST LAUREL MOUNTAIN RAWS 35.48N 117.70W
10/05/2007 M45.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

1013 AM NON-TSTM WND GST INDIAN WELLS CANYON RAW 35.69N 117.89W
10/05/2007 M46.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

1245 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LAUREL MOUNTAIN RAWS 35.48N 117.70W
10/05/2007 M52.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

1245 PM NON-TSTM WND GST JAWBONE CANYON 35.29N 118.23W
10/05/2007 M52.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

1255 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 12 NNW RIDGECREST 35.79N 117.74W
10/05/2007 M50.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

MEASURED AT BAKER.

1256 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NE RIDGECREST 35.65N 117.64W
10/05/2007 M49.00 MPH KERN CA ASOS

MEASURED AT THE CHINA LAKE NAVAL AIR STATION /KNID/.

0113 PM NON-TSTM WND GST INDIAN WELLS CANYON RAW 35.69N 117.89W
10/05/2007 M65.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

0113 PM NON-TSTM WND GST INDIAN WELLS CANYON RAW 35.69N 117.89W
10/05/2007 M76.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

&&

$$

STACHELSKI

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KGRB [052201]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 052201
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
500 PM CDT FRI OCT 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0431 PM HAIL 5 SE DE PERE 44.40N 87.98W
10/05/2007 E0.88 INCH BROWN WI NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

AUSTIN

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KLKN [052156]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KLKN 052156
LSRLKN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
256 PM PDT FRI OCT 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0251 PM SNOW LAMOILLE 40.74N 115.49W
10/05/2007 M7.0 INCH ELKO NV NWS EMPLOYEE

7 INCHES ON GRASSY SURFACES

&&

$$

GPHILLIP

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2058

ACUS11 KWNS 052108
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052107 COR
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-052330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2058
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0407 PM CDT FRI OCT 05 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN KS...SERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 052107Z - 052330Z

CORRECTED DISCUSSION AREA DESCRIPTION

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LEE SFC TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED FROM SERN CO INTO ERN NM/W TX WHERE
STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CU
FIELD DEVELOPING FROM WRN KS INTO NM...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL
STORM ONGOING JUST NW OF ROW NM. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
ERODED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S F ARE
RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG. MODERATE MID/UPPER LVL
FLOW ALONG WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN FAVORABLE
WIND PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EVIDENCE OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND LEAD
SHORTWAVE SHIFTING RAPIDLY NEWD OUT OF CO/KS. THIS...ALONG WITH ONLY
WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING...SUGGESTS COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THREAT OF HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND GUSTY
WINDS.

.JEWELL.. 10/05/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

37780051 35510198 33510392 33430505 34290526 35250494
36460411 37960294 39270202 39840085 39870004 39479954
38539995

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2058

ACUS11 KWNS 052104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052103
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-052330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2058
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0403 PM CDT FRI OCT 05 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MN...WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN KS...SERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 052103Z - 052330Z

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LEE SFC TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED FROM SERN CO INTO ERN NM/W TX WHERE
STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CU
FIELD DEVELOPING FROM WRN KS INTO NM...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL
STORM ONGOING JUST NW OF ROW NM. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
ERODED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S F ARE
RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG. MODERATE MID/UPPER LVL
FLOW ALONG WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN FAVORABLE
WIND PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EVIDENCE OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND LEAD
SHORTWAVE SHIFTING RAPIDLY NEWD OUT OF CO/KS. THIS...ALONG WITH ONLY
WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING...SUGGESTS COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THREAT OF HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND GUSTY
WINDS.

.JEWELL.. 10/05/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

37780051 35510198 33510392 33430505 34290526 35250494
36460411 37960294 39270202 39840085 39870004 39479954
38539995

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KJAX [052045]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 052045
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
445 PM EDT FRI OCT 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSW UNF 30.25N 81.52W
10/05/2007 M3.95 INCH DUVAL FL BROADCAST MEDIA

RAIN OCCURRED BETWEEN 1000 AM AND 430 PM.

&&

$$

CARROLL

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KHNX [052035]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS56 KHNX 052035
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
135 PM PDT FRI OCT 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0532 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 NNW RIDGECREST 35.76N 117.73W
10/05/2007 M68.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

MEASURED AT THE CLASS III 16C RAWS SITE.

0614 AM NON-TSTM WND GST JAWBONE CANYON 35.29N 118.23W
10/05/2007 M51.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

0945 AM NON-TSTM WND GST LAUREL MOUNTAIN RAWS 35.48N 117.70W
10/05/2007 M45.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

1013 AM NON-TSTM WND GST INDIAN WELLS CANYON RAW 35.69N 117.89W
10/05/2007 M46.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

1245 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LAUREL MOUNTAIN RAWS 35.48N 117.70W
10/05/2007 M52.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

1245 PM NON-TSTM WND GST JAWBONE CANYON 35.29N 118.23W
10/05/2007 M52.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

1255 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 12 NNW RIDGECREST 35.79N 117.74W
10/05/2007 M50.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

MEASURED AT BAKER.

1256 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NE RIDGECREST 35.65N 117.64W
10/05/2007 M49.00 MPH KERN CA ASOS

MEASURED AT THE CHINA LAKE NAVAL AIR STATION /KNID/.

0113 PM NON-TSTM WND GST INDIAN WELLS CANYON RAW 35.69N 117.89W
10/05/2007 M65.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

&&
PEAK WIND GUSTS FROM THE WIND EVENT OF OCTOBER 5, 2007.
$$

STACHELSKI

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 051955
SWODY1
SPC AC 051953

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT FRI OCT 05 2007

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

..UPPER MS VALLEY...

EARLY AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE LOW OVER S-CNTRL SD
WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD THROUGH SRN MN INTO NRN WI.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED HEATING AND RESULTANT AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION SO FAR TODAY OVER ERN SD INTO NWRN IA AND SWRN MN.
HOWEVER...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER SERN MN INTO WRN WI HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S AS OF 19Z WITH A WEAKENING
CAP. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LIFTING NEWD THROUGH ERN MN INTO WI. AN ASSOCIATED ZONE OF FORCING
FOR ASCENT ACTING ON MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE
SUPPORTING ONGOING STORMS OVER PARTS OF ERN WI WHERE
ISOLATED...SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE NEWD INTO THE UP OF MI. OF
POTENTIALLY MORE INTEREST IS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WRN NEB
INTO S-CNTRL SD WHICH WILL TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS REGION TONIGHT.

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS AS TO WHETHER SURFACE-BASED
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INVOF WARM
FRONT. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...CURRENT PROFILERS/VWPS AND MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. A MORE
LIKELY SCENARIO WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED TSTMS JUST N OF WARM FRONT
THIS EVENING /I.E. 06/00-03Z/ PERHAPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ABOVEMENTIONED NEB/SD SHORT WAVE TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER
TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..UT/CO NEWD INTO ERN MT...

SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF UT...WRN CO AND WRN WY IN ADVANCE OF INTENSIFYING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR
RATHER STRONG DIABATIC HEATING TO OCCUR...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT SBCAPES OF 250-500
J/KG. FURTHER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SAME GENERAL
AREAS...AND EVENTUALLY NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF ERN MT. A CONCURRENT
STRENGTHENING OF MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS DOWNSTREAM FROM TROUGH AXIS
IS RESULTING QUITE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. ANY
UPDRAFTS THAT CAN BECOME SUSTAINED IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.

.MEAD.. 10/05/2007

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KVEF [051918]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 051918
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1218 PM PDT FRI OCT 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1123 AM NON-TSTM WND GST KINGMAN 35.21N 114.03W
10/05/2007 M51 MPH MOHAVE AZ ASOS

&&

$$

CSCHLOTT

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KREV [051909]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 051909
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1209 PM PDT FRI OCT 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0156 AM SNOW 1 SSE HALLELUJAH JUNCTI 39.76N 120.03W
10/05/2007 E2.0 INCH LASSEN CA TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL SNOW SINCE MIDNIGHT ON UNPAVED SURFACES. SNOW
BEGINNING TO STICK ON HIGHWAY 395. STEADY LIGHT SNOW
CURRENTLY OCCURRING.

0829 AM SNOW PORTOLA 39.80N 120.47W
10/05/2007 M5.0 INCH PLUMAS CA CO-OP OBSERVER

5 INCHES ON THE GROUND...STILL COMING DOWN. 0.56 INCHES
WATER EQUIVALENT.

0949 AM SNOW 5 W BECKWOURTH 39.81N 120.47W
10/05/2007 E6.0 INCH PLUMAS CA TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTS 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW OVERNIGHT.

0953 AM SNOW N SLOAT 39.87N 120.73W
10/05/2007 E5.0 INCH PLUMAS CA TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 4-5 INCHES OF SNOW.

1009 AM SNOW 2 W CHILCOOT 39.80N 120.18W
10/05/2007 E4.0 INCH PLUMAS CA TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 4 INCHES OF WET SNOW. 8 INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN
DUE TO WEIGHT OF SNOW.

1059 AM SNOW 4 WNW SIERRAVILLE 39.62N 120.43W
10/05/2007 E6.0 INCH SIERRA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

6 INCHES OF SNOW THIS MORNING. 0.73 INCHES OF WATER
EQUIV.

1134 AM HEAVY SNOW YUBA PASS 39.62N 120.49W
10/05/2007 E5.0 INCH SIERRA CA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

CALTRANS REPORTED 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL AT YUBA PASS.

1147 AM SNOW 1 N SODA SPRINGS 39.33N 120.39W
10/05/2007 M4.0 INCH NEVADA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

SIERRA SNOW LAB MEASURED 9.5 CM OF SNOW.

1149 AM SNOW 5 NW PROSSER CREEK RESE 39.43N 120.24W
10/05/2007 E3.0 INCH NEVADA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING TO FALL.

&&

$$

GBENINAT

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KJAX [051901]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 051901
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
301 PM EDT FRI OCT 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0257 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NW KEYSTONE HEIGHTS 29.79N 82.05W
10/05/2007 U0.00 INCH BRADFORD FL EMERGENCY MNGR

THE BRADFORD COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS STATE ROAD
100 FLOODED...BUT STILL PASSABLE...NEAR THE BRADFORD-CLAY
COUNTY LINE. BRADFORD COUNTY PUBLIC WORKS WILL BE PLACING
CAUTION SIGNS UP NEAR THE FLOODED AREAS.

&&

$$

SANDRIK

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KVEF [051851]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 051851
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1151 AM PDT FRI OCT 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0516 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSE MT. CHARLESTON 36.26N 115.60W
10/05/2007 M66.00 MPH CLARK NV MESONET

0716 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MERCURY 36.67N 116.00W
10/05/2007 M61.00 MPH NYE NV ASOS

0730 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 9 NW MERCURY 36.77N 116.11W
10/05/2007 M76.00 MPH NYE NV MESONET

0934 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ESE RED ROCK CANYON 36.13N 115.43W
10/05/2007 E50.00 MPH CLARK NV MESONET

&&

$$

CSCHLOTT

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 051619
SWODY1
SPC AC 051616

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CDT FRI OCT 05 2007

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI...

..MN/WI...
BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT THIS MORNING OVER
THE WESTERN STATES...WITH UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.
ONE OF THESE FEATURES IS NOW OVER CENTRAL MN AND WILL TRACK INTO
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH IS AIDING IN THE MAINTENANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF MN/WI/UPPER MI. ELEVATED CAPE IN THIS
AREA IS WEAK...SUGGESTING THAT SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THINNING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF
MN/WI IN WAKE OF UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW AIR MASS TO SLOWLY
DESTABILIZE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MID LEVEL CAP WILL
STRENGTHEN AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BY EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE
A TIME WINDOW FROM 20-03Z IN WHICH ISOLATED NEAR SURFACE-BASED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI. IF STORMS
CAN DEVELOP...VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO. WE DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK DUE TO CONDITIONAL THREAT.

..UT/CO INTO EASTERN MT...
BAND OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN INTO EASTERN MT. POCKETS OF STRONG HEATING WILL YIELD
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THIS SAME
AXIS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THOSE STORMS THAT CAN BECOME
SUSTAINED IN HIGH-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.

.HART/JEWELL.. 10/05/2007

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WATCHES: Test...severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 9991...test

WWUS20 KWNS 051531
SEL1
SPC WW 051531
MIZ000-WIZ000-LMZ000-051600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TEST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 9991...TEST
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM EDT FRI OCT 5 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED...TEST...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 9991 ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT FOR PORTIONS OF

MICHIGAN
WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN

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KBOI [051419]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 051419
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
819 AM MDT FRI OCT 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0704 AM SNOW 6 S ROGERSON 42.13N 114.59W
10/05/2007 M6.0 INCH TWIN FALLS ID TRAINED SPOTTER

SIX TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW ON UNPAVED SURFACES. WET SNOW
ACCUMULATING ON TREES AND BREAKING OFF BRANCHES.

&&

$$

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WATCHES: Test...severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 9991...test

WWUS20 KWNS 051359
SEL1
SPC WW 051359
MIZ000-WIZ000-LMZ000-051600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TEST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 9991...TEST
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 AM EDT FRI OCT 5 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A...TEST...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MICHIGAN
WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1000 AM UNTIL NOON EDT.

HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG
AND 50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF ESCANABA MICHIGAN TO 45 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
MILWAUKEE WISCONSIN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THIS IS A TEST. THIS IS ONLY A TEST.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 24035.

..IMY

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 051256
SWODY1
SPC AC 051254

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 AM CDT FRI OCT 05 2007

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND W
CENTRAL WI...

..SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD/DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM CA TO THE GREAT
BASIN AS A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE MS/OH VALLEY REGION.
THE NET RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL FLOW REGIME OVER
THE ROCKIES CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...WITH
RESULTANT CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED ACROSS ERN WY. MEANWHILE...A SHARP
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NWD ACROSS SD/MN/WI TO THE E OF
THE DEVELOPING WY CYCLONE. THIS SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT...ALONG WITH
THE DEEP BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT BASIN
TROUGH...WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...
CLUSTERS OF PRIMARILY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING
SLOWLY THIS MORNING FROM WRN IA INTO SE MN/NW WI. THIS CONVECTION
HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG THE LLJ AXIS...AS WELL AS
A MID LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING NEWD OVER NW IA/SW MN. EXPECT MID LEVEL
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE SPREADING NEWD OVER MN/NW
WI/WRN UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A PLUME OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADING NEB/SD WILL
EFFECTIVELY CAP THE PLAINS PORTION OF THE WARM FRONT. THE CAP AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAKER FARTHER TO THE E ACROSS MN/WI
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY CONCERN ACROSS MN/WI WILL BE THE
EARLY PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE...AS WELL AS A LARGER SCALE
BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT OF MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES. THESE FACTORS
SUGGEST THAT STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED INVOF THE WARM
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED N OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL. IF SURFACE-BASED STORMS DO FORM...BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 80 F
WITHIN CLOUD BREAKS WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG.
LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WHERE A CONDITIONAL TORNADO/WIND/HAIL THREAT
WILL EXIST. STILL...THE OVERALL SEVERE STORM THREAT SHOULD BE
LIMITED BY MODEST INSTABILITY AND SPARSE STORM COVERAGE IN THE
SURFACE WARM SECTOR.

..CENTRAL/ERN UT INTO WRN WY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
AN EXTENSIVE N-S BAND OF PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DEEP BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS CENTRAL UT AND THEN SPREAD QUICKLY NWD INTO WRN WY...WHILE
THE ENTIRE BAND SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD TONIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG OVER THIS AREA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FAST-MOVING BOWING SEGMENTS...AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE
SEVERE STORM THREAT TO ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

..SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...
A SERIES OF DIFFUSE MID LEVEL TROUGHS WILL LIFT NEWD FROM NM/CO
TOWARD WRN NEB/SD THIS AFTERNOON WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THE
RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN E OF THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH
ACROSS KS/NEB...BUT SOMEWHAT RICHER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
WEAK LEE TROUGH INTO THE WRN TX PANHANDLE AND ERN NM. WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS ERN NM...ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW. AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

..ERN MT/WRN ND TONIGHT...
SOME OF THE CONVECTION ORIGINATING IN WRN WY MAY SPREAD NEWD AS
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN MT TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN A STRENGTHENING WAA REGIME IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WRN ND TONIGHT. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
WITHIN THIS REGIME AFTER ABOUT 06Z...AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

.THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 10/05/2007

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 050810
SWOD48
SPC AC 050809

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 AM CDT FRI OCT 05 2007

VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

..DISCUSSION...

GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER LOW WILL CUTOFF AS IT MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS REGION BY MONDAY DAY 4. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD
SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LINGERING INTO THE MS
VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HOWEVER...MODEL SOLUTIONS
INCLUDING THE MREF...ECMWF AND UKMET DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH RESULTING LOW
PREDICTABILITY.

.DIAL.. 10/05/2007

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KMPX [050743]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 050743
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
242 AM CDT FRI OCT 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0225 AM FLASH FLOOD LAMBERTON 44.23N 95.26W
10/05/2007 REDWOOD MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING REPORTED IN CITY.

&&

$$

KME

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 050733
SWODY3
SPC AC 050731

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CDT FRI OCT 05 2007

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS...

..SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING. A STRONG VORT MAX IS
FORECAST TO ROTATE THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH AND EJECT NEWD INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY. NRN PART OF
FRONT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD DURING THE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY STALL
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG FRONT AND
SUBSEQUENTLY LIFTS NEWD THROUGH KS AND NEB OVERNIGHT. GFS AND NAM
SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR AND STRONGER WITH SRN VORT MAX EJECTING NEWD
THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS...WHILE THE ECMWF PLACES LESS EMPHASIS ON
SRN STREAM VORT MAX AND MAINTAINS A POSITIVE TILT. THIS PLACES SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THIS FORECAST AND WILL THEREFORE INTRODUCE ONLY 15%
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

..SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS AREAS...

PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WILL PERSIST IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. OWING TO RELATIVELY WARM
AIR ALOFT...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODEST. A
ZONE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BE ONGOING
WITHIN PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM PARTS
OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. OTHER CONVECTION MAY BE IN PROGRESS IN
POST FRONTAL ZONE FROM WRN KS NEWD THROUGH PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION WILL EXIST IN ZONE EAST
OF FRONT AND WEST OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION FROM THE ERN TX AND OK
PANHANDLES INTO WRN OK AND SWRN KS. IN THIS REGION STEEPER LAPSE
RATES MAY DEVELOP AS THERMAL TROUGH ATTENDING EJECTING VORT MAX
INTERCEPTS LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND INTENSIFY WITHIN THIS ZONE OF DESTABILIZATION AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT INCREASES WITHIN CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET EXIT REGION.
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. ACTIVITY WILL LIFT
NEWD INTO KS AND SRN NEB DURING THE EVENING. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
MAY SPREAD INTO PART OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
THREAT INTO THIS REGION APPEARS MORE LIMITED DUE TO EXPECTED
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

.DIAL.. 10/05/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 050559
SWODY1
SPC AC 050558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT FRI OCT 05 2007

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS UPPER MIDWEST...

..SYNOPSIS...
DOMINANT UPPER AIR FEATURE FOR UPCOMING PERIOD WILL REMAIN
STRENGTHENING TROUGH OVER WRN CONUS...WITH OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL/WRF
AND MANY SREF MEMBERS PREDICTING CLOSED LOW OVER NV BY 6/00Z.
DOWNSTREAM...HEIGHTS GENERALLY ARE FCST TO RISE THROUGHOUT MOST OF
PERIOD ACROSS MID/UPPER MS VALLEY AND DAKOTAS...AS SYNOPTIC RIDGE
BUILDS DOWNSTREAM FROM DEEPENING WRN TROUGH.

SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED INVOF CENTRAL/NERN WY...WITH LEE
TROUGHING SSEWD ACROSS ERN CO. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
BETTER DEFINED ACROSS NRN PLAINS...EXTENDING FROM WY LOW EWD ACROSS
SD AND SRN MN -- NEAR I-90 -- BETWEEN 6/00Z-6/06Z TIME FRAME.

..N-CENTRAL CONUS...
TWO PRIMARY EPISODES OF CONVECTION ARE MOST PROBABLE DURING PERIOD
IN THIS REGION...

1. MORNING PLUME CARRYING OVER FROM PREVIOUS PERIOD...AND MOVING
NEWD FROM NERN NEB/NWRN IA/SERN SD AREA ACROSS ERN MN/WRN WI. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL...SOME OF WHICH MAY REACH SVR
LIMITS. ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR...AND MRGLLY UNSTABLE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING
500-1000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE.

2. CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK FOR SVR ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW AND/OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH MORNING ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY INVOF ANY
INTERSECTION WITH SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
LIKELY ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES...WITH 35-45 KT 850 MB SSWLYS
SUPERIMPOSED ATOP BACKED SFC WINDS. FCST LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
ACROSS CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK AREA YIELD 0-1 KM SRH TO NEAR 200
J/KG...0-3 KM SRH 300-400 J/KG...ALTHOUGH WEAKNESSES IN 3-6 KM AGL
FLOW WILL LIMIT DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

EXPECT STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WITH WWD EXTENT...WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH 60S/ISOLATED 70 F SFC DEW POINTS TO YIELD MLCAPES
1500-2000 J/KG. EXPECT PROGRESSIVELY MORE SBCINH INVOF WARM FRONT
WITH WWD EXTENT ALSO. NEGATIVE FACTORS INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR
CAPPING TO SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT OR MAYBE ELIMINATE DIURNAL
DEVELOPMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE FORCING BENEATH
AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER RIDGE. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP BEFORE
DARK NEAR FRONT MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR AFTER DARK NEAR NOSE OF
STRENGTHENING LLJ....ACROSS ERN DAKOTAS/MN...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING
MAIN THREAT.

..W-CENTRAL/INTERMOUNTAIN...
CONDITIONAL DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL EXISTS IN ELONGATED SWATH AHEAD
OF DEEP UPPER TROUGH...CORRESPONDING CLOSELY BOTH TO AXIS OF 50-75
KT 500 MB JET AND REASONABLY PROGGED CONVECTIVE PRECIP IN SEVERAL
MODELS. VERY FAST STORM MOTIONS ARE LIKELY GIVEN INTENSITY OF FCST
MID-UPPER WINDS. BUNKERS ET AL. ALGORITHM APPLIED TO PROGGED
HODOGRAPHS YIELDS NE MOTIONS 50-60 KT FOR ANY SUSTAINED/DISCRETE
CELLS...WHICH SHOULD BE SFC-BASED FOR MUCH OF MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
EVEN MODEST CONVECTIVE GUSTS MAY BECOME DAMAGING WHEN SUPERIMPOSED
UPON GRADIENT FLOW THAT BY ITSELF MAY APCH CONVECTIVE SVR CRITERIA
IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WHILE STG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH SUCH INTENSE AMBIENT WINDS ABOVE SFC SEEMINGLY WOULD FAVOR SVR
POTENTIAL...MRGL BUOYANCY MAY BE IMPORTANT LIMITING FACTOR...GIVEN
ASSOCIATED DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE PLUMES.
MLCAPES GENERALLY SHOULD REMAIN AOB 300 J/KG IN MOST AREAS...EVEN
DURING PEAK LATE AFTERNOON SFC TEMPS.

..NRN HIGH PLAINS...
INTERMOUNTAIN REGIME WILL TRANSITION/EXTEND NWD OVER NRN HIGH PLAINS
LATER IN PERIOD...WITH SOME ENHANCED/ELEVATED BUOYANCY RELATED TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME. ASSOCIATED STEEPENING
OF LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT
MUCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG...AMIDST EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN 50-60 KT RANGE.
ALTHOUGH NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL MITIGATE
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...TSTMS OVER ERN MT/WRN DAKOTAS MAY PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL HAIL.

.EDWARDS/CROSBIE.. 10/05/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 050540
SWODY2
SPC AC 050538

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT FRI OCT 05 2007

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

..SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL AMPLIFY SEWD AND BE CENTERED
NEAR THE GREAT BASIN EARLY SATURDAY. THE FRONT NOW FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT
AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. BY SATURDAY
MORNING THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES WWD TO A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD FROM THE
LOW THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN ROCKIES. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EWD REACHING THE CNTRL AND SRN ROCKIES SATURDAY EVENING. POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR VORTICITY MAXIMA TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH
AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND WRN
PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT.

..CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...

LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM ERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
LIMIT NWD RETURN OF RICH GULF MOISTURE. HOWEVER...LOW TO MID 60S
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY ADVECT NWD THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL THROUGH NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY AS
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES ESTABLISHED EAST OF DEVELOPING LEE
LOW. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE MITIGATED TO
SOME EXTENT BY RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT WITH -7 TO -8C AT 500
MB...AND THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WITH
MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG EXPECTED. ELEVATED STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR
HAIL WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM
THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY LIFT NWD INTO CANADA. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MUCH
OF THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED
STORMS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT APPEARS MOST OF THE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH ANY IMPULSES EJECTING NEWD THROUGH UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN POST FRONTAL. THIS SUGGESTS MOST STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...BUT ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN
MCS AS IT CONTINUES EWD OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DIAL.. 10/05/2007

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