SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052107 COR
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-052330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2058
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0407 PM CDT FRI OCT 05 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN KS...SERN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 052107Z - 052330Z
CORRECTED DISCUSSION AREA DESCRIPTION
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LEE SFC TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED FROM SERN CO INTO ERN NM/W TX WHERE
STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CU
FIELD DEVELOPING FROM WRN KS INTO NM...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL
STORM ONGOING JUST NW OF ROW NM. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
ERODED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S F ARE
RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG. MODERATE MID/UPPER LVL
FLOW ALONG WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN FAVORABLE
WIND PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EVIDENCE OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND LEAD
SHORTWAVE SHIFTING RAPIDLY NEWD OUT OF CO/KS. THIS...ALONG WITH ONLY
WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING...SUGGESTS COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THREAT OF HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND GUSTY
WINDS.
.JEWELL.. 10/05/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
37780051 35510198 33510392 33430505 34290526 35250494
36460411 37960294 39270202 39840085 39870004 39479954
38539995
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