KMAF [300345]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 300345
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1044 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM HAIL E PLATEAU 31.06N 104.56W
04/29/2007 E2.00 INCH CULBERSON TX CO-OP OBSERVER

ALONG I-10 EAST OF PLATEAU TRUCKSTOP

0330 PM FLASH FLOOD BAKERSFIELD 30.89N 102.30W
04/29/2007 PECOS TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0320 PM FLASH FLOOD W IMPERIAL 31.27N 102.69W
04/29/2007 PECOS TX CO-OP OBSERVER

EXXON STATION FLOODED AND FM 11 IMPASSABLE DUE TO
FLOODING

0340 PM FLASH FLOOD SW KENT 31.07N 104.22W
04/29/2007 CULBERSON TX BROADCAST MEDIA

WATER OVER THE ROAD REPORTED BY JIM FALLER

0340 PM FLASH FLOOD W KENT 31.07N 104.22W
04/29/2007 CULBERSON TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

SITTING WATER OVER ROAD JUST WEST OF KENT ON HURD DRAW RD

&&

$$

JGUDMEST

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0622

ACUS11 KWNS 300343
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300342
TXZ000-300445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0622
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1042 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 200...

VALID 300342Z - 300445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 200 CONTINUES...

LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL TRACKING EAST TOWARD MAVERICK COUNTY WILL CROSS
THE RIO GRANDE AND BE NEAR EAGLE PASS TX AT TOP OF THE HOUR. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS STORM REMAINS
SUPPORTIVE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS
A TORNADO.

ELSEWHERE...ACTIVE CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS THE TRANS-PECOS...WITH
INTENSE MULTICELL STORMS OVER TERRELL AND CROCKETT COUNTIES LIKELY
TO AFFECT PARTS OF SUTTON AND SCHLEICHER COUNTIES IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE APPEAR TO BE POSSIBLE HAZARDS FROM THESE
STORMS.

ADDITIONALLY...IR IMAGERY NOW DEPICTS NEW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING
ACROSS PARTS OF NRN COAHUILA MEXICO WITHIN BAND OF FAST MID LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF UPPER LOW.

.CARBIN.. 04/30/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT...MAF...

31620266 31550130 31080134 31020016 30610007 30609946
30189931 30129898 29729882 27209880 27239945 28410034
29280080 29770145 29880246 29080307 29060334 29250380
30410375 30650336 30840359 31400297 31270274

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KCLE [300341]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCLE 300341
LSRCLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1140 PM EDT SUN APR 29 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0943 PM HAIL 2 ENE MARION 40.60N 83.09W
04/26/2007 E0.75 INCH MARION OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

KIELTYKA

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KSJT [300339]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 300339
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1039 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1035 PM FLASH FLOOD ABILENE 32.45N 99.73W
04/29/2007 TAYLOR TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

STREETS FLOODED

&&

$$

09

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KMAF [300334]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 300334
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1030 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0649 PM HAIL IMPERIAL 31.27N 102.69W
04/29/2007 E0.75 INCH PECOS TX AMATEUR RADIO

0610 PM FLASH FLOOD GREENWOOD 32.03N 101.90W
04/29/2007 MIDLAND TX TRAINED SPOTTER

MINOR FLOODING IN GREENWOOD

0542 PM FLASH FLOOD MIDLAND 32.00N 102.08W
04/29/2007 MIDLAND TX PUBLIC

MINOR FLOODING ON LOOP 250

0700 PM FLASH FLOOD MIDLAND 32.00N 102.08W
04/29/2007 MIDLAND TX NWS EMPLOYEE

1 FOOT OF STANDING WATER ON BENTWOOK ST BETWEEN THOMASON
AND ANETTA AND ALSO 1 FOOT OF WATER OVER WADLEY NEAR
MIDLAND DR

0740 PM HAIL S CRANE 31.39N 102.35W
04/29/2007 E1.00 INCH CRANE TX PUBLIC

JUST SOUTH OF CRANE

0100 PM HAIL SE KENT 31.07N 104.22W
04/29/2007 E0.88 INCH CULBERSON TX PUBLIC

HWY 17 AT THE COUNTY LINE

0154 PM HAIL MONAHANS 31.60N 102.89W
04/29/2007 E0.25 INCH WARD TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0140 PM FUNNEL CLOUD TOYAVALE 30.94N 103.79W
04/29/2007 REEVES TX PUBLIC

PUBLIC SAID 140, RADAR SUGGESTS 129 OR 133

&&

$$

JGUDMEST

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KBYZ [300326]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 300326
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
926 PM MDT SUN APR 29 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0658 PM TSTM WND GST 9 NNE BIGHORN 46.29N 107.38W
04/29/2007 E60.00 MPH TREASURE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0705 PM TSTM WND GST LIVINGSTON 45.66N 110.56W
04/29/2007 M63.00 MPH PARK MT ASOS

0800 PM TSTM WND GST LIVINGSTON 45.66N 110.56W
04/29/2007 M67.00 MPH PARK MT ASOS

&&

$$

BET

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KMAF [300310]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 300310
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1003 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0435 PM HAIL WSW PLEASANT FARMS 31.68N 102.34W
04/29/2007 E1.75 INCH ECTOR TX PUBLIC

HAIL LASTED FOR 10 MIN

0535 PM FLOOD MIDLAND 32.00N 102.08W
04/29/2007 MIDLAND TX PUBLIC

4 INCHES OF STANDING WATER ON W LOOP 250

0531 PM HAIL W FORT STOCKTON 30.89N 102.89W
04/29/2007 E1.00 INCH PECOS TX PUBLIC

LARGE HAIL FELL WEST OF FORT STOCKTON IN I-10

0606 PM HAIL GREENWOOD 32.03N 101.90W
04/29/2007 E1.00 INCH MIDLAND TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0555 PM FUNNEL CLOUD NW FORT STOCKTON 30.89N 102.89W
04/29/2007 PECOS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

FUNNEL CLOUD WEST OF HYW 18

0612 PM HAIL N ALPINE 30.36N 103.67W
04/29/2007 E1.75 INCH BREWSTER TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

ALONG US 67 NORTH OF ALPINE

0411 PM FLOOD ODESSA 31.85N 102.37W
04/29/2007 ECTOR TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

1 FOOT DEEP FLOODING SH 302/FM1882

0504 PM FLOOD ODESSA 31.85N 102.37W
04/29/2007 ECTOR TX PUBLIC

1 FOOT WATER ON 22ND AT SANDEU PARK

0523 PM FLOOD ODESSA 31.85N 102.37W
04/29/2007 ECTOR TX TRAINED SPOTTER

ANDREWS HWY/YUKON RD WERE FLOODED

0527 PM FLOOD ODESSA 31.85N 102.37W
04/29/2007 ECTOR TX EMERGENCY MNGR

HIGH WATER RESCUE, I-20 AND GRANDVIEW, 2 AND A HALF FEET
HIGH

0636 PM HAIL IMPERIAL 31.27N 102.69W
04/29/2007 E1.75 INCH PECOS TX PUBLIC

&&

$$

JGUDMEST

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KMKX [300242]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 300242
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
942 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 PM HAIL 5 W ORFORDVILLE 42.63N 89.36W
04/29/2007 E1.00 INCH ROCK WI LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

GD

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KSJT [300232]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 300232
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
932 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0926 PM HAIL 9 SW CLYDE 32.31N 99.61W
04/29/2007 E1.00 INCH CALLAHAN TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

09

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KDVN [300230]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 300230
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
930 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0740 PM HAIL 4 NNE ROCK FALLS 41.82N 89.67W
04/29/2007 M0.75 INCH WHITESIDE IL TRAINED SPOTTER

MEASURED 3/4 INCH HAIL. DELAYED REPORT.

&&

$$

ELLIOTT

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KSJT [300222]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 300222
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
922 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0920 PM HAIL 5 S ABILENE 32.38N 99.73W
04/29/2007 E1.75 INCH TAYLOR TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

09

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KDVN [300138]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KDVN 300138
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
836 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0727 PM TSTM WND GST 2 NE STERLING 41.82N 89.66W
04/29/2007 M45.00 MPH WHITESIDE IL TRAINED SPOTTER

ON RTE 2, 3 WEST OF LEE AND WHITESIDE COUNTY LINE.

0728 PM HAIL 2 NE STERLING 41.82N 89.66W
04/29/2007 M0.50 INCH WHITESIDE IL TRAINED SPOTTER

ONE HALF INCH HAIL 3 WEST OF LEE AND WHITESIDE COUNTY
LINE ON ROUTE 2.

&&

$$

ELLIOTT

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0621

ACUS11 KWNS 300135
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300135
TXZ000-OKZ000-300330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0621
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0835 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 199...

VALID 300135Z - 300330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 199
CONTINUES.

WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG AND NORTH OF WELL-DEFINED
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR ABI SWWD TO SJT AND THEN WWD
TO FST. MESOSCALE LIFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITHIN DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF UPPER LOW WILL MAINTAIN
ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY. ONE WELL ESTABLISHED BOWING LINE
SEGMENT...CURRENTLY ENTERING WRN REAGAN COUNTY IN TORNADO WATCH
200...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO SRN PARTS OF SEVERE TSTM
WATCH 199 IN THE NEXT HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS FAVORABLY ORIENTED
TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO MAINTAIN STRONG LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND
SHEAR. UNSTABLE AIR MASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS CONVECTION REMAINS
UNPERTURBED SO SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS SRN PARTS OF WATCH 199 SHOULD
CONTINUE.

DESPITE MODEST LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR UPWARD MOTION OVER NWRN
TX...STORMS IN THIS REGION ARE MORE REMOVED FROM UNSTABLE INFLOW.
EXPECT THAT NRN PARTS OF WATCH 199 WILL BEGIN TO BE CLEARED OVER THE
NEXT HOUR.

.CARBIN.. 04/30/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

30739946 30710011 31110013 31080124 31680128 31620274
32100278 32090163 32530165 32480111 32950119 32970107
33400106 33360049 33840052 33810001 34559998 34399968
34259923 34169896 32979894 32959910 32109909 32089922
31469918 31419940 31539957 30959961 30949947

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 300059
SWODY1
SPC AC 300056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST...WCNTRL
AND NCNTRL TX...

..WEST/WCNTRL AND NCNTRL TX...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LOW CENTERED NEAR EL PASO
TX WITH A LARGE MCS DEVELOPING OVER WEST AND NORTHWEST TX.
WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS WEST AND CNTRL TX WILL SUSTAIN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. THE MCS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EWD
WITH TIME REACHING THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE VICINITY OF DALLAS/FORT
WORTH BY LATE TONIGHT.

THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 55 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVING
NEWD AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LOW WITH A BROAD EXIT REGION OF
THE MID-LEVEL JET SPREADING ACROSS WEST-CNTRL TX ATTM. THE MID-LEVEL
JET IS CREATING MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS
COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS. A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER-LOW MOVES GRADUALLY EWD.

LATEST WSR-88D VWPS SHOW FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION
FOR TORNADOES. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ON THE DEL RIO TX 00Z SOUNDING IS
IMPRESSIVE AND THIS SUGGESTS THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST
FROM THE DEL RIO TX AREA EXTENDING NWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO TX THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE 00Z DEL RIO TX SOUNDING SHOWS STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 40 KT. THIS APPEARS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
WCNTRL TX AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING
AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL SHOULD
EXIST OVERNIGHT IN THE DEL RIO AND EAGLE PASS TX AREAS AS LAPSE
RATES AND VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASE DUE TO THE EJECTING MID-LEVEL JET.
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED
STORM CLUSTERS AND BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS OVERNIGHT.

..MT AND WRN ND...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES
AND A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIKELY PRESENT IN THE FLOW. MODEL
FORECASTS IDENTIFY THIS TROUGH AND MOVE THE TROUGH EWD ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A POCKET OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL MT WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY AROUND 1000 J/KG. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE INSTABILITY CURRENTLY PRESENT
SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS EVENING.
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN MT
INTO WRN ND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING SHOW STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL JET OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES AND SRN CANADA. IN ADDITION...LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEP AND SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LARGE. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD OVERNIGHT...A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY AFFECT AREAS AS FAR EAST AS DICKINSON ND
ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR.

..UPPER MIDWEST...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WSWWD ACROSS SRN WI
INTO NRN IA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS PRESENT
FROM CNTRL IA EXTENDING ENEWD INTO NW IL AND SRN WI. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
THIS LOW-LEVEL JET. IN ADDITION...THE DAVENPORT IA 00Z SOUNDING
SHOWS A VEERED WIND PROFILE WITH VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NEAR 9.0 C/KM. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT
THIS EVENING AS STORMS MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION. MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALSO APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS TEMPS COOL AND INSTABILITY
DROPS ACROSS THE REGION.

.BROYLES.. 04/30/2007

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.

WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 200

WWUS20 KWNS 300051
SEL0
SPC WW 300051
TXZ000-300800-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 200
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
745 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 745 PM UNTIL
300 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
HONDO TEXAS TO 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF DRYDEN TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 198. WATCH NUMBER 198 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
745 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 199...

DISCUSSION...WARM/MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE
TRANS-PECOS REGION SEWD ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SRN EDGE OF
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF STRONG
TO SEVERE TSTMS TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FURTHER SUSTAINED AS
LARGE SCALE DIFFLUENCE...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW...SPREADS EWD ATOP
THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW TOPPED BY
STRENGTHENING WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SHEAR PROFILES
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL
ALSO EXIST GIVEN ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23020.

..CARBIN/HART

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KDVN [300033]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 300033
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
733 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0728 PM HAIL 2 NE STERLING 41.82N 89.66W
04/29/2007 M0.50 INCH WHITESIDE IL TRAINED SPOTTER

ONE HALF INCH HAIL 3 WEST OF LEE AND WHITESIDE COUNTY
LINE ON ROUTE 2.

&&

$$

ELLIOTT

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KDVN [300030]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 300030
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
730 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0727 PM TSTM WND GST 2 NE STERLING 41.82N 89.66W
04/29/2007 M45 MPH WHITESIDE IL TRAINED SPOTTER

ON RTE 2, 3 WEST OF LEE AND WHITESIDE COUNTY LINE.

&&

$$

ELLIOTT

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0620

ACUS11 KWNS 300025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300025
TXZ000-NMZ000-300130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0620
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 198...

VALID 300025Z - 300130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 198 CONTINUES.

SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOWER PECOS VALLEY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MEXICO SOUTH
OF THE BIG BEND REGION. MANY OF THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF
LARGE HAIL AND LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS UPPER
LOW NEAR ELP DRIFTS EASTWARD AND STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVERSPREADS THE RISK AREA. 00Z DRT SOUNDING INDICATES THERMODYNAMIC
AND KINEMATIC PARAMETERS VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND LARGE
HAIL /MLCAPE OVER 1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS/ IF
STORMS CAN MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MEXICO AND ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE INTO SOUTH TX. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW THROUGH THE EVENING MAY ALSO CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

WITH THESE IDEAS IN MIND...A NEW TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY BEFORE 01Z
TO REPLACE WW 198...AND TO EXTEND FARTHER SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY.

.HART.. 04/30/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...EPZ...

29470113 29730143 29770186 29870229 29750258 29540279
29170293 28980315 29180369 29440420 29800462 30240474
30870494 31990491 32010280 31660275 31660127 31050129
31080014 30270016 30290069 29110071

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KSJT [292355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 292355
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
654 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0649 PM HAIL 7 S THROCKMORTON 33.08N 99.18W
04/29/2007 E0.88 INCH THROCKMORTON TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0649 PM TSTM WND GST 7 S THROCKMORTON 33.08N 99.18W
04/29/2007 E60 MPH THROCKMORTON TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0437 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 6 SW WILMETH 31.92N 100.19W
04/29/2007 RUNNELS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

SNAGLE

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0619

ACUS11 KWNS 292335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292334
TXZ000-300100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0619
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0634 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 292334Z - 300100Z

CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE SRN EDGE OF THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

STRONG DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITHIN SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF
SLOW-MOVING LOW WILL TRANSITION EAST ACROSS A VERY UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR SITUATED OVER SCNTRL TX THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...AREAS OF
INTENSE CONVECTION WERE ONGOING ACROSS WEST TX...ALONG AND NORTH OF
A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW/COLD POOL BOUNDARY THAT ARCS SWWD AND THEN
WWD FROM NWRN TX TO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION. MORE WIDELY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY...BUT A FEW PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS...EXIST SOUTH OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...FROM FORT STOCKTON SOUTH ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
INTO COAHUILA MEXICO.

GIVEN PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX ON SELY/UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND ONLY WEAK TO MODEST CAPPING...IT IS
EXPECTED THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL MAINTAIN
INTENSITY WHILE DEVELOPING EAST WITH THE UPPER FORCING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW MAY KEEP THE GREATER
SEVERE POTENTIAL EAST OF SAN ANTONIO AREA UNTIL LATE.
HOWEVER...PATTERN DOES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF FORWARD PROPAGATING
SEVERE MCS WITH WIND/HAIL AND TORNADO THREATS IF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND THE TRANS-PECOS REGIONS.
THIS SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO.

.CARBIN.. 04/29/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

27809850 27659944 28010000 29110053 30060059 30629989
30679932 30699839 30209785 29589761 28319784

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0618

ACUS11 KWNS 292319
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292319
MTZ000-WYZ000-300045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0618
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0619 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN MT...FAR NERN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 292319Z - 300045Z

ISOLATED HIGH-BASED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASE AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING SERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...HOWEVER WEAK
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT OVERALL STORM COVERAGE. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS CNTRL MT/FAR NRN WY THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RATHER WEAK THUS FAR.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF PEAK HEATING AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN TSTM INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY REACHED THE
UPPER 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 40S. AS A RESULT OF SURFACE
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 35 TO 40 DEGREES...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD AID IN GUSTY WINDS AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS MATURE AND
EVENTUALLY COLLAPSE. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES
GENERALLY AOB 750 J/KG. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...LATEST VAD
PROFILER OUT OF BILLINGS INDICATES AROUND 45 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR.
THIS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT LP SUPERCELLS AND AN
ASSOCIATED LARGE HAIL THREAT.

.GRAMS.. 04/29/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

44450723 45410822 45850873 46120907 46670982 47070957
47170871 47200745 47060639 46710541 45850471 44700490
44420562 44310637

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KSJT [292312]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 292312
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
612 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0601 PM HAIL LUEDERS 32.80N 99.62W
04/29/2007 E0.88 INCH JONES TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

$$

SNAGLE

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KTFX [292215]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 292215
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
415 PM MDT SUN APR 29 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 14 WSW ST MARY 48.67N 113.71W
04/27/2007 M91 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

LOGAN PASS IN GLACIER NATIONAL PARK ELEVATION 6775 FEET

&&

$$

JMB

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 199

WWUS20 KWNS 292156
SEL9
SPC WW 292156
TXZ000-300400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 199
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
500 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 500 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SAN ANGELO TEXAS TO 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 198...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TX THIS
AFTERNOON...IN VICINITY OF SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. DESPITE
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND FORCING ALONG BOUNDARY ARE
AIDING IN DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22025.

..HART

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KSJT [292124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 292124
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
424 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0423 PM HAIL BRONTE 31.89N 100.29W
04/29/2007 E1.00 INCH COKE TX TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

SNAGLE

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KTFX [292114]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 292114
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
313 PM MDT SUN APR 29 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0325 PM NON-TSTM WND GST TWO MEDICINE 48.49N 113.36W
04/28/2007 M58 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

&&

$$

JMB

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KSJT [292114]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 292114
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
414 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM HAIL STERLING CITY 31.84N 100.99W
04/29/2007 E0.88 INCH STERLING TX PUBLIC

&&

$$

SNAGLE

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KSJT [292111]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 292111
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
410 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM HAIL 3 S BRONTE 31.84N 100.29W
04/29/2007 E0.88 INCH COKE TX TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

SNAGLE

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0617

ACUS11 KWNS 292052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292052
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-292215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0617
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA...SRN WI...FAR NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 292052Z - 292215Z

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-BASED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS...RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY MITIGATE A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THUS...A WW
APPEARS UNLIKELY ATTM...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG AN E-W ORIENTED SURFACE
TROUGH FROM AROUND 40 S RST TO 40 S LSE. TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS
AXIS HAVE REACHED THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WHILE ASOS REPORTED DEW
POINTS HAVE MIXED TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. GIVEN THE NEARLY 40
DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A DRY MICROBURST THREAT AS THE TSTMS MATURE SEWD.
STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 45 KTS /AS SAMPLED BY THE LA CROSSE VAD
PROFILER/...WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR LARGE HAIL DEVELOPMENT AS WELL.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL REMAIN WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD
NE OF LK SUPERIOR. IN ADDITION...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD LARGELY
BE DRIVEN BY RELATIVELY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
AND/OR COLD FRONT. TO THE S OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...LATEST OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS INDICATES A CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AOB 500 J/KG/.

.GRAMS.. 04/29/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

42088805 42179040 42429189 42679303 42939350 43429395
43469337 43489169 43669032 43708828 42918790

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0616

ACUS11 KWNS 292050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292050
TXZ000-NMZ000-292145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0616
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 292050Z - 292145Z

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE TX
SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE
BENEATH EXPANDING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY FARTHER NORTH
ALONG LEADING EDGE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. OF MORE
CONCERN IS THAT REGION JUST NORTH OF THE TORNADO WATCH FROM MAF-SJT
WHERE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SEEM SUFFICIENT FOR
WEAK SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GENERATE
HAIL...BUT AT THIS TIME SEVERE THREAT SEEMS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. GREATER SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
BENEATH STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITHIN EXIT REGION OF NRN MEXICO
SPEED MAX ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 198.

.DARROW.. 04/29/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

32330310 34350090 33669933 31679984 31170072 31720173

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0615

ACUS11 KWNS 292012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292012
TXZ000-NMZ000-292115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0615
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TEXT

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 198...

VALID 292012Z - 292115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 198 CONTINUES.

DEEPER ASCENT APPEARS TO BE SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS FAR
WEST TX...INCLUDING THE ONGOING TORNADO WATCH...PER LATEST WV
IMAGERY. THIS IS CERTAINLY REFLECTED IN RADAR DATA BY THE ABUNDANCE
OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND RENEWED UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION. WITH POCKETS OF SUNSHINE/INTENSE HEATING NOTED ACROSS
THE SRN BIG BEND...HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO
ONGOING ACTIVITY. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL SEEM LIKELY...ALONG
WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DARROW.. 04/29/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...EPZ...

30630497 30710492 32000494 31980306 32080307 32070281
31660277 31640127 31090126 31090010 30280012 30300070
29240076 29460106 29650133 29760145 29780179 29800215
29870229 29740243 29700269 29430284 29150302 29010315
29130352 29240377 29470420 29640449 29960467 30230470
30400483

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 292000
SWODY1
SPC AC 291958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW...SCNTRL
TX...

..TRANSPECOS/EDWARDS PLATEAU/SRN AND CNTRL TX AND SRN NM...
MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WRAPPING ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF THE NRN MEXICAN
UPR LOW ALLOWED STRONG INSOLATION TO RAPIDLY WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION NWD INTO THE TRANSPECOS. MOIST SELY
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND STRONG HEATING BENEATH
STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION. THESE STORMS HAVE MOVED NWD INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN
REGION AT MID-AFTN. MOST OF THE TSTMS HAVE WEAKENED...BUT
MAINTENANCE OF STRONG STORMS HAS BEEN FAVORING PARTS OF THE BIG
COUNTRY WHERE MORE SFC HEATING HAS OCCURRED ON NW PERIPHERY OF
HIGHER PWAT VALUES. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS
INTO PARTS OF WRN N TX LATE THIS AFTN.

NEXT VORTICITY LOBE WAS ROTATING NEWD TOWARD THE BIG BEND AND FAR W
TX WHERE AIR MASS HAS WARMED IN WAKE OF THE EARLIER STORMS. AS A
RESULT...TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER/MOVE INTO SWRN TX LATER THIS
AFTN AND AT POINTS FARTHER N OVERNIGHT.

STRONGEST BELT OF FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE UPR LOW WAS ARCING FROM
NRN COAHUILA/CHIHUAHUA INTO THE BIG BEND REGION...WITH VERTICAL
SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES GIVEN ESELY SFC FLOW.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT...BUT...A TORNADO OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE STORMS MATURE OVER THE STOCKTON PLATEAU.

FARTHER NW...FLOW ALOFT WAS WEAKER CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE UPR
LOW. BUT...LAPSE RATES WERE QUITE STEEP AND INJECTION OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND SOME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR STRONG TO ISOLD SVR STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ACROSS SCNTRL/CNTRL TX...WDLY SCT TSTMS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE
ESCARPMENT/COASTAL PLAIN/SEA BREEZE. HERE...MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED A DEGREE OR TWO CELSIUS OVER YESTERDAY.
BUT...THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP MAY PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD STRONG
STORMS WITH HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS.

..UPR MS RVR VLY...
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED FROM NERN WI SWWD TO NEAR KLSE THEN
INTO NRN NEB WITH PRIMARY COLD FRONT FROM LKSUP TO SERN SD. VSBL
SATL SHOWS SFC-BASED CU BEGINNING TO FORM AMONGST THE ACCAS FIELD.
SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE UPPER 80S...BUT DEW POINTS
REMAINED IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A DEEP
AND RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES TO AOB
500 J/KG. AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES VCNTY THE SFC TROUGH...LATE
AFTN/EVE HIGH-BASED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION OF
SRN MN/NRN IA/SWRN WI...WHERE WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR STORM
INITIATION/COVERAGE...BUT GIVEN A STORM...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SVR THREAT.

..MT...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER PAC NW WILL MOVE ACROSS MT AND SRN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BY TONIGHT. ASCENT WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE
FOCUSED ALONG THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS MT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUITE
LIMITED IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...AND ANY INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND RESULTANT STEEP LAPSE RATES/DEEP MIXED
LAYERS. GIVEN THE FOCUSED ASCENT...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR...A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

.RACY.. 04/29/2007

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.

WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 198

WWUS20 KWNS 291733
SEL8
SPC WW 291733
TXZ000-300100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 198
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1235 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
MARFA TEXAS TO 40 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF DEL RIO TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL LOW OVER NRN MEXICO WILL EJECT SLOWLY ENEWD
TOWARD THE BIG BEND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID LEVEL
SWLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE BIG BEND AND LOWER PECOS VALLEY ABOVE
LOW-LEVEL ESELY FLOW...WHILE THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL ALLOW
POCKETS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL STORMS TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
SPREAD NWD/NEWD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
AND BUOYANCY IN THE LOW LEVELS...ALONG WITH THE SUPERCELL WIND
PROFILE...COULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22020.

..THOMPSON

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 291732
SWODY2
SPC AC 291731

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPR MS
RVR VLY...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/WRN TX...

..UPR MS RVR VLY/CORN BELT...
UPR WAVE NOW CROSSING ONTARIO WILL ARRIVE IN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. IN
WAKE OF THIS IMPULSE...A FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD TONIGHT AND BE
LOCATED FROM THE MID-OH VLY NWWD TO THE UPR MS RVR VLY. FAST BELT
OF WLYS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY WITH
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING FROM THE PAC NW
TODAY INTO THE UPR MS RVR VLY BY MONDAY EVENING.

STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
INTO THE UPR MS RVR VLY ALONG/S OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WITH H85
TEMPS AOA 20 DEG C INTO THE CORN BELT. BENEATH THIS EML...BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN...BUT PROBABLY NOT TO THE CALIBER OF
THE SHORT TERM MODELS. NONETHELESS...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HEAT
CONSIDERABLY FROM NEB NEWD INTO IA AND SRN MN...WEAKENING INHIBITION
THROUGH MONDAY AFTN. AS WEAK LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCD WITH
APPROACHING IMPULSE SPREAD ESEWD...A SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. INCREASING CONVERGENCE MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER SWRN/SCNTRL MN BY LATE AFTN.
ACTIVITY MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO A TSTM CLUSTER OR TWO AND MOVE SEWD
INTO NRN IA AND EXTREME SWRN WI DURING THE EVE.

BULK SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6KM IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HODOGRAPHS WILL BE LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL AND THE NATURE OF WEAK FORCING WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
POSSIBLE DISCRETE SPLITTING CELLS. A TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE.

ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP EWD AND WEAKEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE UPR MIDWEST/CNTRL GRTLKS REGION. OTHER STORMS MAY
FORM/BACKBUILD WWD ALONG A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP
SEWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN IA AND PARTS OF NEB. ISOLD DAMAGING
WINDS/HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.

..CNTRL/WRN/SCNTRL TX...
UPR LOW APPROACHING THE BIG BEND REGION WILL CONTINUE ENEWD INTO THE
SRN PLAINS ON MONDAY. TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF
CNTRL TX AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
NWD INTO OK THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY MAINTAIN COOL BOUNDARY LAYER
FROM EXTREME N TX/OK. BINOVC FARTHER S WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/WRN/SCNTRL TX DURING THE AFTN.

DRIER WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD FROM SWRN TX INTO CNTRL TX
DURING THE DAY...WITH DRYLINE/SFC TROUGH LIKELY THE IMPETUS FOR MORE
STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS...SLIGHTLY STRONGER ACROSS SCNTRL TX.
PRIND THAT AFTN STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

..MIDWEST-CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
WNWLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL LIKELY CARRY TSTM CLUSTERS SEWD FROM
THE UPR MIDWEST SEWD INTO THE REGION MON-MON NIGHT. MODELS ARE
LIKELY OVERESTIMATING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY UPSTREAM
IN THE SOURCE REGION AND THIS WILL IMPACT ANTICIPATED BUOYANCY
FARTHER SE. BUT...AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY AND KINEMATIC PROFILES
SUGGEST THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR AN ORGANIZED
STORM OR TWO WITH HAIL/HIGH WINDS FROM PARTS OF OH INTO WV MON
AFTN/EVE.

.RACY.. 04/29/2007

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0614

ACUS11 KWNS 291703
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291703
TXZ000-291800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0614
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 291703Z - 291800Z

LATEST WV IMAGERY SUGGEST UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO EJECT SLOWLY
ENEWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO TOWARD THE BIG BEND REGION. A VERY WELL
PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS
UPPER SYSTEM. PARTIAL SUNSHINE ACROSS THE BIG BEND HAS AIDED
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND SFC-3 KM LAPSE RATES ARE NOW IN EXCESS OF
7 C/KM...INDICATIVE OF ENHANCED BUOYANCY BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. IT
APPEARS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ADEQUATE FOR MAINTAINING SUSTAINED
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...DRIFTING NWD TOWARD THE NM
BORDER. LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

.DARROW.. 04/29/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...EPZ...

30620611 31760577 31910349 30810119 29230119 29100349
30180464

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 291623
SWODY1
SPC AC 291621

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SW TX...

..SW TX THROUGH TONIGHT...
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION HAVE BEEN RATHER WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT INTO
THIS MORNING ACROSS SW TX IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NW
MEXICO WHICH IS BEGINNING TO MOVE ENEWD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
CONVECTION...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WITH CLOUD BREAKS IN THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
SPREADING NEWD OVER SW TX. THE MORE PROBABLE AREAS FOR
DESTABILIZATION AND STORM INITIATION WILL BE NEAR AND JUST NE OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM JUST W OF DRT INTO THE AREA IMMEDIATELY N OF THE
BIG BEND THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
SPREADING WNWWD UP THE RIO GRANDE AND LOWER PECOS VALLEYS...ALONG
WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD SUPPORT THE
FORMATION OF A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIDELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.

..MT AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW WA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN
RIDGE AXIS AND OVER MT AND SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BY TONIGHT.
ASCENT WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS MT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...AND
ANY INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY
WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND RESULTANT STEEP LAPSE RATES/DEEP MIXED
LAYERS. GIVEN THE FOCUSED ASCENT...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR...A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

..UPPER MS VALLEY...
A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN ONTARIO WILL AMPLIFY
AND MOVE ESEWD TOWARD QUEBEC BY TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS MID
LEVEL WAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SEWD FROM CENTRAL MN INTO NRN IA/SRN WI BY LATE EVENING.
RECENT FORECASTS FROM THE NAM/GFS HAVE SHOWN UNREALISTIC MOISTENING
IN THE LOW-MID TROPOSPHERE FROM ERN NEB INTO SRN WI BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO THE
UPPER 50S AND EVEN LOW-MID 60S. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW NO SUPPORT FOR THIS SCENARIO BASED ON A VERY
SHALLOW NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER WITH ONLY UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS AND
MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT...AND PW VALUES AROUND 0.60 INCHES. THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 80S WITH A DEEP MIXED LAYER...AND MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG BASED ON
MEAN DEWPOINTS NEAR 50 F. THEREFORE...ISOLATED/HIGH-BASED STORMS
MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING FROM NRN IA INTO SRN
WI...WHERE WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN STORM INITIATION/COVERAGE IS LOW...AND WILL
MAINTAIN ONLY LOW CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL.

.THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 04/29/2007

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0613

ACUS11 KWNS 291244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291243
TXZ000-NMZ000-291545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0613
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW TX -- BIG BEND TO PERMIAN
BASIN...EXTREME SERN NM

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 291243Z - 291545Z

POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN RATES 1-2 INCHES/HOUR -- ALREADY LOCALIZED
ACROSS PORTIONS BREWSTER/PECOS COUNTIES -- IS EXPECTED TO BOTH SHIFT
NWD ACROSS PERMIAN BASIN/LOWER PECOS VALLEY REGION AND REDEVELOP
FARTHER S LATER THIS MORNING. MERGING/TRAINING OF CORES WILL
ENHANCE THIS RISK...ESPECIALLY OVER CORRIDOR FROM MAF-INK AND SWD
INTO BIG BEND TERRITORY. MULTIPLE EPISODES OF TSTMS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND BEYOND ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL...WITH
SVR POTENTIAL DESCRIBED IN LATEST SPC DAY-1 OUTLOOK.

MAF RAOB HAS MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY DURING PAST 12 HOURS WITH 850 MB
DEW POINT UP 10 DEG F TO 14 C...AND PW NEARLY 1.25 INCH. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION GIVEN LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE UPSTREAM ACROSS RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ADJACENT
MEX PIEDMONT...AS BASED ON 12Z DRT RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS.
CINH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK AS SFC DIABATIC HEATING
FURTHER DESTABILIZES AIR MASS IN AREAS OF CLEARING...WITH 1000-1500
J/KG MLCAPE REDEVELOPING S OF I-10...AND MUCAPE APCHG 2000 J/KG AS
FAR N AS I-20 EVEN AFTER INITIAL WAVE OF CONVECTION. IN ADDITION TO
POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING TSTMS OVER NRN
COAHUILA AND BIG BEND REGION...IMPENDING NEWD ACCELERATION OF MEX
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED NWD SPREAD OF RICH LOW LEVEL THETAE WILL
CAUSE POTENTIAL TO COVER MORE OF W TX WITH TIME...AND POSSIBLY
EXTREME SERN NM.

.EDWARDS.. 04/29/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

32420329 32580151 32010093 30590082 29170076 29740140
29770173 29850230 29730259 28970311 29280395 29600445
29880463 30180467 30800460 31440421

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 291223
SWODY1
SPC AC 291221

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SWRN TX...

..SOUTHWEST TX...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS ENEWD AND BEGINS
TO EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH OVER WRN TX THROUGH THE PERIOD.
INFLUX OF RELATIVELY RICH GULF MOISTURE REMAINS EVIDENT THIS MORNING
ON SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE DATA INTO THE BIG BEND REGION...WHERE
SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 65F WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEEP WITHIN
PERSISTENT FEED OF WARM/DRY ELEVATED MIX LAYER OUT OF N-CENTRAL
MEXICO. THIS WILL SUSTAIN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN
A NARROW AXIS NEAR AND SOUTH OF SURFACE WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDING
WSWWD ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO WEAK LOW CENTER SE OF MRF. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE DIFFUSE THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH
STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY LIFT NNEWD INTO MORE
STABILITY AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES. SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONGEST EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WITHIN 40-50 KT SWLY H5 JET FORECAST
TO OVERSPREAD THE BIG BEND REGION LATER TODAY. GIVEN PERSISTENT
SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN MORE THAN
ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A
LARGER...SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND PERSIST WELL AFTER DARK
TOWARDS CENTRAL TX. THOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT...SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO
WILL EXIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

..CENTRAL/NRN MT...
COMPLICATED FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION WITH STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
WLY FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL
THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AND
SPREADS QUICKLY EWD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. EARLY MORNING ANALYSES
INDICATE A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
AOB 35F ACROSS MUCH OF MT. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT NAM/NAMKF/GFS MODELS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SURFACE DEW POINTS ALMOST 10 DEGREES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH/FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD
ACROSS THE STATE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. UNSURE WHAT IS DRIVING
THIS MOISTURE INCREASE GIVEN LACK OF ADVECTIVE SOURCE AND DEARTH OF
VERTICAL MOISTURE FOR DOWNWARD MIXING ON MORNING SOUNDINGS. 09Z RUC
MAY BE MORE REASONABLE IN ACTUALLY DROPPING SURFACE DEW POINTS
WITHIN STRONG DIURNAL MIXING AND WLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME TODAY.
SHOULD THIS SCENARIO UNFOLD...DEEP CONVECTION /ESPECIALLY ANY
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER/ WILL BE MUCH LESS LIKELY ACROSS THIS
REGION. GIVEN LARGE UNCERTAINTY AND HIGHLY CONDITIONAL NATURE OF
ANY THREAT...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES WITH THIS
FORECAST.

..NRN IA/SRN MN INTO SRN WI...
AS MENTIONED IN ABOVE SECTION OVER MT...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES
HAVE UNFOLDED OVERNIGHT REGARDING AVAILABLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
OVER THIS REGION AHEAD OF SEWD MOVING SURFACE TROUGH/MID LEVEL JET.
APPEARS DEEP MIXING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL TEND TO OFFSET ANY
ADVECTIVE MOISTENING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND HINDER MUCH IF
ANY CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY TODAY. DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND
STRONG SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINED
SEVERE...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS...SHOULD SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY/STORMS DEVELOP. HOWEVER...AREA APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL
TO WARRANT MORE THAN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM.

.EVANS/CROSBIE.. 04/29/2007

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0612

ACUS11 KWNS 291014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291013 COR
TXZ000-291215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0612
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0513 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW TX -- BIG BEND/LOWER
PECOS...TRANS-PECOS AND PERMIAN BASIN REGIONS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 291013Z - 291215Z

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS
REGION THROUGH MIDMORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT MOVING SLOWLY NWD TOWARD I-10
CORRIDOR BETWEEN JCT-FST...BENEATH 25-35 KT LLJ. RELATED SFC THETAE
ADVECTION AND MOIST ADVECTION ABOVE SFC WILL BOOST BUOYANCY FROM
S-N...SUPPORTING BOTH TSTMS MOVING NWD FROM MEX AND ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING N OF RIO GRANDE. THIS REGION WILL REMAIN IN ZONE OF
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE NE OF UPPER LOW LOCATED INVOF
SONORA/CHIHUAHUA BORDER. WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT EXPECTED OF UPPER
VORTEX DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND
THEREFORE DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY WITH NWD
EXTENT. THIS FACTOR...ALONG WITH DIMINISHING INSTABILITY NWD ACROSS
PERMIAN BASIN TOWARD S PLAINS...WILL LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL NEAR AND N
OF I-20 THROUGH MIDMORNING. EXPECT SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW
PARCELS WITH MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG RIO GRANDE...DROPPING TO
LESS THAN 500 J/KG ALONG WARM FRONT...THOUGH ELEVATED MUCAPES
500-1000 J/G MAY SUSTAIN ACTIVITY FOR 50-80 NM N OF WARM FRONT
BEFORE WEAKENING. BULK SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MAXIMIZED OVER BIG BEND
AND SWRN TRANS-PECOS AREAS NEAR RIO GRANDE...WITH 0-6 KM VALUES
35-40 KT.

.EDWARDS.. 04/29/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...EPZ...

31130566 31380201 31020068 30220045 28920061 29740140
29770173 29850230 29730259 28970311 29280395 29600445
29880463 30180467 30660502 30810522

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0612

ACUS11 KWNS 291011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291011
TXZ000-291215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0612
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0511 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW TX -- BIG BEND/LOWER
PECOS...KRANS-PECOS AND PERMIAN BASIN REGIONS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 291011Z - 291215Z

INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS
REGION THROUGH MIDMORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT MOVING SLOWLY NWD TOWARD I-10
CORRIDOR BETWEEN JCT-FST...BENEATH 25-35 KT LLJ. RELATED SFC THETAE
ADVECTION AND MOIST ADVECTION ABOVE SFC WILL BOOST BUOYANCY FROM
S-N...SUPPORTING BOTH TSTMS MOVING NWD FROM MEX AND ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING N OF RIO GRANDE. THIS REGION WILL REMAIN IN ZONE OF
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE NE OF UPPER LOW LOCATED INVOF
SONORA/CHIHUAHUA BORDER. WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT EXPECTED OF UPPER
VORTEX DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND
THEREFORE DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY WITH NWD
EXTENT. THIS FACTOR...ALONG WITH DIMINISHING INSTABILITY NWD ACROSS
PERMIAN BASIN TOWARD S PLAINS...WILL LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL NEAR AND N
OF I-20 THROUGH MIDMORNING. EXPECT SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW
PARCELS WITH MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG RIO GRANDE...DROPPING TO
LESS THAN 500 J/KG ALONG WARM FRONT...THOUGH ELEVATED MUCAPES
500-1000 J/G MAY SUSTAIN ACTIVITY FOR 50-80 NM N OF WARM FRONT
BEFORE WEAKENING. BULK SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MAXIMIZED OVER BIG BEND
AND SWRN TRANS-PECOS AREAS NEAR RIO GRANDE...WITH 0-6 KM VALUES
35-40 KT.

.EDWARDS.. 04/29/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...EPZ...

31130566 31380201 31020068 30220045 28920061 29740140
29770173 29850230 29730259 28970311 29280395 29600445
29880463 30180467 30660502 30810522

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 290844
SWOD48
SPC AC 290843

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

..DISCUSSION...

MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN HANDLING MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE COMING NEWD FROM NRN BAJA/NWRN MEXICO INTO
THE SRN ROCKIES AND SRN HIGH PLAINS ON MAY 2-3 BEFORE WEAKENING OVER
OK/NRN TX ON MAY 4. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITH THIS
FEATURE FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...BUT KINEMATICS MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT. THUS...FEEL THAT
PREDICTABILITY IS TO LOW FOR AN AREA AT THIS TIME.

AFTER MAY 4...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER GREATLY IN THE TROUGHING
THAT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE WRN U.S. THE ECMWF
CONTINUED TO BE MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS/UKMET KEEPING
PREDICTABILITY LOW BEYOND DAY 6.

.MCCARTHY.. 04/29/2007

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KEWX [290808]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 290808
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
308 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0220 AM HAIL 5 SE EAGLE PASS 28.66N 100.43W
04/29/2007 E1.75 INCH MAVERICK TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

1.75 INCH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS AT ROSITA VALLEY

&&

$$

LE

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 290728
SWODY3
SPC AC 290727

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY....

..SYNOPSIS...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY AS RIDGE BUILDS UPSTREAM OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN OVER NERN INDIANA/SWRN LOWER MI AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND MOVE EWD INTO NRN NJ BY
2/12Z...TAKING COLD FRONT SSEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.

..CENTRAL INDIANA INTO SWRN PA...

WARM SECTOR WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND EWD ACROSS NRN OH INTO CENTRAL PA.
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE WITH SFC DEW
POINTS ESTIMATED IN THE LOW/MID 60S. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 70S TO AROUND 80...AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
60S WOULD GIVE MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG. WITH WSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
AT 30-40 KT ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND WNWLY 30-50 KT MID
LEVEL FLOW...FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED SUPPORTING STRONG
UPDRAFTS AND A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE
SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 7.5C/KM BY AFTERNOON
WITH SFC-3KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 250 M2/S2.
THIS ALSO SUPPORTS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...SO WOULD EXPECT THAT MUCH
OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS DURING
THIS PERIOD.

..SOUTHERN PLAINS...

MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT THRU THE DAY1 AND DAY2
PERIODS IS EXPECTED TO FILL GRADUALLY AS NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EWD ACROSS THE NRN BAJA AND NWRN MEXICO. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING MAY PRESENT SUFFICIENT
THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA.

.MCCARTHY.. 04/29/2007

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0611

ACUS11 KWNS 290600
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290559
TXZ000-290800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0611
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW TX...RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 290559Z - 290800Z

CLUSTER OF MOSTLY MULTICELLULAR TSTMS -- PERHAPS INCLUDING SOME
INTERMITTENT/LEFT-MOVING SUPERCELLULAR MORPHOLOGY -- SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE NWD/NNWWD FROM NERN COAHUILA ACROSS RIO GRANDE. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD AFFECT PORTIONS NWRN WEBB...DIMMIT...MAVERICK AND
ZAVALA COUNTIES THROUGH 830Z. LARGE HAIL WILL BE MAIN THREAT...WITH
ISOLATED STG GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BECAUSE
OF LIMITED AREAL/TEMPORAL COVERAGE OF THREAT.

SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM NRN SERRANIAS
DEL BURRO RANGE IN MEX...EWD ACROSS DRT AREA...THEN EWD THROUGH NRN
FRINGES SAT/HOU AREAS. THIS FRONT MAY DRIFT NWD...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MARK NRN EDGE OF SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS. MODIFIED
RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG WILL PERSIST THROUGH
ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OF GRADUAL SFC DIABATIC COOLING...THIS BUOYANCY
BEING SUPPORTED GREATLY BY UPPER 60S F SFC DEW POINTS. SFC THETAE
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP MARKEDLY N OF FRONT...LEADING TO MORE ELEVATED
UPDRAFTS AND LIKELY WEAKENING OF ACTIVITY FROM LATITUDE OF ABOUT
DRT-HDO NWD. ONGOING ACTIVITY IS MOVING LEFTWARD OF THAT PORTION OF
HODOGRAPH ABOVE 2 KM...HOWEVER DRT VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CONSIDERABLE TURNING IN LOW LEVEL WINDS THAT YIELD CURVING 0-2 KM
HODOGRAPHS...AND POSITIVE SRH EVEN FOR LEFT-MOVING STORMS.
ADDITIONAL TSTMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING W OF MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY
AS OF 545Z...AND THIS ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY MAY AFFECT PORTIONS
KINNEY/SRN VAL VERDE COUNTIES.

.EDWARDS.. 04/29/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

29430103 29600066 29620026 29529991 29289977 28699970
28259979 27989993 27990000 28140007 28190019 28260028
28480035 28730053 28900065 29070067 29150078 29250078
29280088 29370100

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 290557
SWODY1
SPC AC 290555

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF SW TX AND THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE UPPER
MS VALLEY...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WRN...CNTRL...AND ERN MT...

..SYNOPSIS...
SRN STREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK GENERALLY EWD FROM NRN
MEXICO ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND WEST TX THIS PERIOD WITH A
BAND OF 35-40KT 500MB FLOW AND 40-60M 12H HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING
FROM THE BIG BEND/TRANS-PECOS REGIONS TOWARD CNTRL TX THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. PERSISTENT SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWWD UP THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND INTO THE REGION OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

A BELT OF FAST WLY FLOW EXISTS WELL NORTH OF THE SRN STREAM
LOW...ALONG THE NRN BORDER STATES FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE EAST
COAST. A PAIR OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FAST NRN
STREAM WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
LEADING IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY WHILE DEVELOPING SEWD FROM
CNTRL CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE ASSOCIATED
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL SPREAD SEWD ACROSS
THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...INTO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT...AND THEN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY MONDAY.

A LOWER-AMPLITUDE UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH LATE TODAY. MODEST
HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM FROM THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST ACROSS MT THROUGH TONIGHT.

..RIO GRANDE VALLEY/WEST TX...
DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND PRECIPITATION
INHABITING GREATER DESTABILIZATION...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING WILL PROVE ADEQUATE FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. MOIST LOW LEVEL
SELY/UPSLOPE FLOW...AND MODEST TO STRONG LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH THE
MID/UPPER LOW WILL SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL LIKELY EXPAND
EWD ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/SRN TX THROUGH MONDAY. MOST SUPPORTIVE
CROSSOVER FLOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE TRANS-PECOS AND BIG BEND
AREAS SEWD ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHERE BAND OF STRONGER MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL PASS OVER GREATER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY THROUGH
EVENING. SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS WHILE MORE
WIDESPREAD MULTICELLULAR STORMS OCCUR FARTHER NORTH...PERHAPS
EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER CONVECTIVE CLOUD/RAIN SHIELD. LARGE HAIL AND
HEAVY RAIN APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...TORNADO/WIND POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST WITH ANY
SUPERCELL...ESPECIALLY CELLS ENCOUNTERING RESIDUAL DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

..NRN ROCKIES/MT...
AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS INCREASE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR NORTHWEST AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...LEE-SIDE PRESSURE FALLS
AND HEATING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 700-500MB LAPSE
RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GPS PW OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE TO MID/UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE NRN
GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WITH 40-45F
DEWPOINTS IS FORECAST TO SPREAD WWD TOWARD THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODESTLY CAPPED MUCAPE OF 500-800
J/KG.

STRENGTHENING LEE-LOW/TROUGH AND DYNAMIC FORCING BENEATH ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET SHOULD OVERCOME CAPPING/INHIBITION AND AID
HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME. GIVEN
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY ORGANIZE AND POSE A
THREAT OF HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS. FAST-MOVING LINE
SEGMENTS...AND PERHAPS A SUPERCELL OR TWO...MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A
SEVERE THREAT WHILE TRACKING EWD ACROSS CNTRL MT THROUGH THE
EVENING...AND PERHAPS AS FAR AS ERN MT OVERNIGHT.

..UPPER MS VALLEY....
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS TRAILING THE AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
ONTARIO WILL JUST BRUSH THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION WITH A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO SETTLE SWD INTO WARM AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
FROM SRN MN/IA EWD ACROSS SRN WI. WHILE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL WARM
INTO THE 80S F...LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL PROBABLY DETER GREATER DESTABILIZATION AND MAINTAIN CAPPING
UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION. STRONGEST SUPPORT FOR
TSTMS WILL BE FROM NRN IA ACROSS THE MS RIVER INTO WI THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE
FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS EVEN SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL. GIVEN
RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
OUTFLOW-DOMINANT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WINDS.
BACKBUILDING PROPAGATION APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS IA WHERE STRONGER
INSTABILITY FEEDING THIS CONVECTION COULD MAINTAIN A THREAT OF AT
LEAST ISOLATED HAIL/WIND INTO THE EARLY EVENING PRIOR TO DECREASE IN
STORM INTENSITY WITH DIURNAL STABILIZATION.

.CARBIN.. 04/29/2007

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 290553
SWODY2
SPC AC 290552

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MN...NRN IA AND SWRN WI....

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS S TX....

..SYNOPSIS...
MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL EXTEND ALONG THE NRN TIER OF STATES AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THEN OFFSHORE MONDAY
NIGHT. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LOOKS LIKE THE GFS HANDLES THIS FEATURE A BIT BETTER AND SLOWER THAN
THE NAM. MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AT
THIS TIME WILL BE OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY THIS PERIOD.

..PARTS OF MN/IA/WI AND NWRN IL...

GFS TAKES SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM
CENTRAL SD INTO NWRN IA MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST
TO EXTEND FROM THE LOW EWD ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER THEN SEWD THRU
CENTRAL OH. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE LOW THRU THE NEB PANHANDLE
INTO NWRN WY. THE NAM IS A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS THAN THE GFS...AND GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE S CENTRAL U.S. LOOKS A BIT MORE REALISTIC. LOW LEVEL
JET OF 30-40 KT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NERN KS INTO CENTRAL IA
AND SWRN WI BY 21-00Z ENHANCING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH 30-50 KT
WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW CREATING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-60 KT ACROSS
THE AREA. ANALYSIS OF NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MN INTO CENTRAL WI...BUT
WEAKER PROFILES IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS CENTRAL IA.

AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH BOTH MODELS PRODUCING MUCAPE OF
1000-2000 J/KG WITH LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8C/KM. NAM
FORECASTS T/TD VALUES OF 88/65 AROUND KALO AT 22Z WITH A MLCAPE JUST
UNDER 2800 J/KG AND INDICATING LARGE HAIL WITH THE PROFILE.
THUS...EXPECT SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP JUST
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SHORTWAVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT
JUST E OF THE LOW. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
MAIN THREATS AT THIS TIME. BUT...GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES
AROUND NERN IA/SWRN WI...SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR.

..RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND S CENTRAL TX...

REMNANTS OF A DAY1 MCS SHOULD EFFECT MUCH OF THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THIS REGION DURING THE PERIOD. BOTH MODELS STILL PROJECT A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON MOSTLY FROM
AVAILABLE HEATING. BOTH MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG
RANGE FOR MUCAPE CORRESPONDING WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 40
KT. THUS...LOOK FOR REGENERATION OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF S CENTRAL TX.

.MCCARTHY.. 04/29/2007

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.