SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291243
TXZ000-NMZ000-291545-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0613
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW TX -- BIG BEND TO PERMIAN
BASIN...EXTREME SERN NM
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 291243Z - 291545Z
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN RATES 1-2 INCHES/HOUR -- ALREADY LOCALIZED
ACROSS PORTIONS BREWSTER/PECOS COUNTIES -- IS EXPECTED TO BOTH SHIFT
NWD ACROSS PERMIAN BASIN/LOWER PECOS VALLEY REGION AND REDEVELOP
FARTHER S LATER THIS MORNING. MERGING/TRAINING OF CORES WILL
ENHANCE THIS RISK...ESPECIALLY OVER CORRIDOR FROM MAF-INK AND SWD
INTO BIG BEND TERRITORY. MULTIPLE EPISODES OF TSTMS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND BEYOND ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL...WITH
SVR POTENTIAL DESCRIBED IN LATEST SPC DAY-1 OUTLOOK.
MAF RAOB HAS MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY DURING PAST 12 HOURS WITH 850 MB
DEW POINT UP 10 DEG F TO 14 C...AND PW NEARLY 1.25 INCH. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION GIVEN LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE UPSTREAM ACROSS RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ADJACENT
MEX PIEDMONT...AS BASED ON 12Z DRT RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS.
CINH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK AS SFC DIABATIC HEATING
FURTHER DESTABILIZES AIR MASS IN AREAS OF CLEARING...WITH 1000-1500
J/KG MLCAPE REDEVELOPING S OF I-10...AND MUCAPE APCHG 2000 J/KG AS
FAR N AS I-20 EVEN AFTER INITIAL WAVE OF CONVECTION. IN ADDITION TO
POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING TSTMS OVER NRN
COAHUILA AND BIG BEND REGION...IMPENDING NEWD ACCELERATION OF MEX
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED NWD SPREAD OF RICH LOW LEVEL THETAE WILL
CAUSE POTENTIAL TO COVER MORE OF W TX WITH TIME...AND POSSIBLY
EXTREME SERN NM.
.EDWARDS.. 04/29/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
32420329 32580151 32010093 30590082 29170076 29740140
29770173 29850230 29730259 28970311 29280395 29600445
29880463 30180467 30800460 31440421
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