KBIS [030158]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 030158
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
858 PM CDT SAT APR 02 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 PM SNOW SHERWOOD 48.96N 101.63W
04/02/2011 M2.0 INCH RENVILLE ND PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA.

&&

$$

LHUBER

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KUNR [030128]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 030128
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
728 PM MDT SAT APR 02 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 24 SE WRIGHT 43.50N 105.16W
04/02/2011 M70 MPH CAMPBELL WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

&&

$$

WFO UNR STAFF

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KCYS [030124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 030124
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
724 PM MDT SAT APR 02 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 23 NNE BILL 43.52N 105.08W
04/02/2011 M64.00 MPH CAMPBELL WY MESONET

ROCHELLE HILLS RAWS

0410 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 9 S WHEATLAND 41.92N 104.96W
04/02/2011 M58.00 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

BORDEAUX, SUSTAINED WIND AT 38 MPH.

0430 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 14 WSW CHEYENNE 41.07N 105.04W
04/02/2011 E59.00 MPH LARAMIE WY MESONET

EMKAY, SUSTAINED WIND AT 42 MPH.

0440 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ESE ARLINGTON 41.58N 106.17W
04/02/2011 M59.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ARLINGTON EAST

0441 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
04/02/2011 E61.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ARLINGTON, SUSTAINED WIND AT 43 MPH.

0445 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 21 WSW CHEYENNE 41.03N 105.16W
04/02/2011 E61.00 MPH LARAMIE WY MESONET

LYNCH, SUSTAINED WIND AT 42 MPH.

0505 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 23 NNE BILL 43.52N 105.08W
04/02/2011 M70.00 MPH CAMPBELL WY MESONET

ROCHELLE HILLS RAWS

0530 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 14 WSW CHEYENNE 41.07N 105.04W
04/02/2011 E58.00 MPH LARAMIE WY MESONET

EMKAY, SUSTAINED WIND AT 32 MPH.

0605 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 23 NNE BILL 43.52N 105.08W
04/02/2011 M60.00 MPH CAMPBELL WY MESONET

ROCHELLE HILLS RAWS

&&

$$

HUTCHEON

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 030055
SWODY1
SPC AC 030053

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT SAT APR 02 2011

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
ESEWD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE BENEATH A POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT IN
ERN WA...NRN ID AND NW MT EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT IN NRN UT
JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE QUITE
STRONG. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR IN SE MT AND SW ND
WHERE SOME INSTABILITY EXISTS ON THE NRN EDGE OF A PLUME OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

FURTHER TO THE EAST...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY ALONG THE AXIS OF A 60 TO 75 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE PRESENT IN THE CNTRL
APPALACHIAN MTNS THIS EVENING BUT THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING. NONE
OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE THROUGH TONIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 04/03/2011

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KTFX [030017]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 030017
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
617 PM MDT SAT APR 02 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM TSTM WND GST 18 WNW WEST YELLOWSTONE 44.76N 111.45W
04/02/2011 M58 MPH MADISON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

58 MPH WIND GUST REPORTED AT THE RAYNOLDS PASS MT DOT
SITE.

&&

$$

COULSTON

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KRNK [022333]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 022333
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
733 PM EDT SAT APR 02 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM NON-TSTM WND GST HAYS 36.25N 81.12W
04/02/2011 E50 MPH WILKES NC PUBLIC

A 12 FOOT APPLE TREE BLOWN DOWN. SOME TREES DOWN IN THE
COUNTY.

&&

$$

WHP

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KRIW [022310]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KRIW 022310
LSRRIW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
510 PM MDT SAT APR 02 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0509 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG BAR NUNN 42.93N 106.35W
04/02/2011 NATRONA WY EMERGENCY MNGR

ROOF BLOWN OFF OF HOUSE.

&&

$$

AEM

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KAKQ [022302]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 022302
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
702 PM EDT SAT APR 02 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E NEW POINT COMFORT 37.31N 76.24W
04/02/2011 E40 MPH ANZ632 VA MESONET

WEATHERFLOW X203

&&

$$

05

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KCYS [022259]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 022259
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
459 PM MDT SAT APR 02 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0216 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 15 NNE CENTENNIAL 41.50N 106.00W
04/02/2011 M63.00 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

STROUSS HILL

0216 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
04/02/2011 M58.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ARLINGTON, SUSTAINED WIND AT 44 MPH.

0230 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 ESE ARLINGTON 41.55N 106.08W
04/02/2011 M58.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

COOPER COVE, SUSTAINED WIND AT 42 MPH.

0236 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 9 WNW ELK MOUNTAIN 41.74N 106.57W
04/02/2011 M59.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

MILE MARKER 249.1-HALLECK RIDGE INCLINE, SUSTAINED WIND
AT 44 MPH.

0301 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 9 WNW ELK MOUNTAIN 41.74N 106.57W
04/02/2011 M58.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

MILE MARKER 249.1-HALLECK RIDGE INCLINE, SUSTAINED WIND
AT 47 MPH.

0301 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 15 NNE CENTENNIAL 41.50N 106.00W
04/02/2011 M61.00 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

STROUSS HILL, SUSTAINED WIND AT 40 MPH.

0310 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 SSW HANNA 41.72N 106.64W
04/02/2011 M59.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

HANNA RIDGE, SUSTAINED WIND AT 41 MPH.

0335 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 ESE ARLINGTON 41.55N 106.08W
04/02/2011 M58.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

COOPER COVE, SUSTAINED WIND AT 43 MPH.

0336 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 WNW LARAMIE 41.38N 105.81W
04/02/2011 M58.00 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

HERRICK LANE, SUSTAINED WIND AT 41 MPH.

0341 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 14 NE CENTENNIAL 41.44N 105.92W
04/02/2011 M59.00 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

QUEALY DOME, SUSTAINED WIND AT 38 MPH.

&&

$$

HUTCHEON

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KBOI [022225]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 022225
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
425 PM MDT SAT APR 02 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0653 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NNE BAKER 44.84N 117.81W
04/02/2011 M45.00 MPH BAKER OR ASOS

BAKER CITY AIRPORT - PEAK GUST 45 MPH

0755 AM NON-TSTM WND GST N FLASTAFF HILL 44.81N 117.73W
04/02/2011 M47.00 MPH BAKER OR MESONET

FLAGSTAFF HILL RAWS - PEAK GUST OF 47 MPH

1152 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 S MOUNTAIN HOME AFB 43.03N 115.87W
04/02/2011 M48.00 MPH ELMORE ID MESONET

MOUNTAIN HOME RAWS - PEAK GUST OF 48 MPH

1236 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 SSE NORTON BAY 42.02N 114.67W
04/02/2011 M51.00 MPH TWIN FALLS ID MESONET

NEAR JACKPOT - PEAK GUST 51 MPH

1239 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SE MAGIC VALLEY REGIO 42.48N 114.48W
04/02/2011 M45.00 MPH TWIN FALLS ID ASOS

TWIN FALLS ASOS - PEAK GUST OF 45 MPH

1255 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 S TWIN BUTTES 42.69N 115.20W
04/02/2011 M56.00 MPH OWYHEE ID MESONET

TWIN BUTTES RAWS - PEAK GUST OF 56 MPH

0104 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 N HANSEN 42.57N 114.30W
04/02/2011 M56.00 MPH JEROME ID MESONET

56 MPH PEAK GUST AT HANSEN BRIDGE

&&

$$

THIMMESCH

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KAKQ [022209]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 022209
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
608 PM EDT SAT APR 02 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 5 NNE HAMPTON 37.11N 76.26W
04/02/2011 M49.00 MPH ANZ632 VA MESONET

WEATHERFLOW X254

0516 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 4 ESE OCEAN VIEW 36.93N 76.18W
04/02/2011 M52.00 MPH ANZ632 VA MESONET

WEATHERFLOW X316

0518 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 6 NNE BAYSIDE 36.97N 76.11W
04/02/2011 M56.00 MPH ANZ632 VA MESONET

1ST ISLAND...WEATHERFLOW X30111

0526 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 12 E NORTH VIRGINIA BEA 36.91N 75.78W
04/02/2011 E48.00 MPH ANZ656 VA C-MAN STATION

&&

$$

MMONTE

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KTFX [022154]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 022154
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
354 PM MDT SAT APR 02 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0334 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 E MARYSVILLE 46.73N 112.16W
04/02/2011 M52 MPH LEWIS AND CLARK MT TRAINED SPOTTER

52 MPH WIND GUST AT SILVER CITY

&&

$$

JOH

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KPDT [021739]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 021739
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1039 AM PDT SAT APR 02 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1007 AM NON-TSTM WND GST PENDLETON 45.67N 118.82W
04/02/2011 M45 MPH UMATILLA OR ASOS

PENDLETON ASOS RECORDED 45 MPH WINDS.

1024 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ECHO 45.74N 119.19W
04/02/2011 E45 MPH UMATILLA OR DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

EXIT 198 ALONG INTERSTATE 84 ODOT REPORTED WIND GUST TO
45 MPH.

0912 AM SNOW 3 NNE BINGHAM SPRINGS 45.79N 118.21W
04/02/2011 E4.0 INCH UMATILLA OR TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED 3 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW IN WESTON MOUNTAIN. THIS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST 5
HOURS AT AN ELEVATION 4000 FEET.

0900 AM SNOW 2 N MEACHAM 45.53N 118.42W
04/02/2011 E4.0 INCH UMATILLA OR TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

VPAPOL

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 021731
SWODY2
SPC AC 021730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SAT APR 02 2011

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDWEST/MIDDLE MS
VALLEY TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...

...MIDWEST/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY TO SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...
AN UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL
AMPLIFY/ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD IN A POSITIVE-TILT FASHION FROM THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY SUNDAY TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BENEATH A STRONG
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/CAP...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AGGRESSIVELY
RETURN NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY WITH AID OF A 50-70 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. GENERALLY LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE PRE-COLD
FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE MIDWEST/LOWER MO VALLEY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP SHOULD PRECLUDE SURFACE BASED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...INITIAL DEEP
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SEEMS PROBABLE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST IA/NORTHWEST
IL AND NORTHERN MO...SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR A TRIPLE POINT/DRYLINE
INTERSECTION ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS.

WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY/VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AMID 50-60 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL MODE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND SOME TORNADOES...WITH THE RELATIVELY GREATEST
PROBABILITY OF TORNADOES APPEARING TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR
EASTERN IA AND NORTHERN IL/NORTHEAST MO. A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL
UNFOLD AS WELL DURING THE EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS AS STORMS
CONGEAL/BOWS EVOLVE AMIDST NOCTURNALLY REINVIGORATED FLOW WITHIN THE
LOWEST FEW KM /70+ KT AT 850 MB/. WHILE A VERY STRONG WIND FIELD
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS OR MORE LIKELY FAST
MOVING QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTION/BOWS SUNDAY NIGHT...MODEST BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE/ASSOCIATED DECOUPLING IMPLIES AN INCREASINGLY MORE
ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT BY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
MIDWEST.

FARTHER S/SW ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...DEEP CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PRE-EARLY EVENING/ROUGHLY PRE-03Z IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AMID
A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/STOUT CAP. IN TERMS OF NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...ONLY SOME WRF-ARW MEMBERSHIP OF THE 09Z SREF SUPPORTS
ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
DRYLINE ACROSS CENTRAL OK/NORTH TX...WITH OTHER/TRADITIONAL
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATIVE OF LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR PRE-DARK
INITIATION. IF STORMS DO INDEED FORM IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...RELATIVELY STRONG
INSTABILITY/HIGHLY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...WITH A TORNADO THREAT PROBABLY LIMITED
BY A RELATIVELY WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
IS FOR ISOLATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SOUTHEAST
ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE.

..GUYER.. 04/02/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021629
SWODY1
SPC AC 021627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT SAT APR 02 2011

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN VA AND VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON...
STEEP LAPSE RATES PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA
MOVING ESEWD FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SURFACE HEATING ACROSS
ERN VA/NC WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DEEPENING OF CONVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...AND A FEW LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED...COLD PROFILES COULD SUPPORT SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS. ADDITIONALLY...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40 KT FLOW
IN THE LOWEST 3 KM AGL COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

...NRN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WA/ORE WILL PROGRESS ESEWD OVER
THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN GREAT BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
BASIN...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOISTENING MID LEVELS /PER REGIONAL
12Z SOUNDINGS/ WILL RESULT IN INVERTED-V PROFILES WITH WEAK BUOYANCY
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE BAND OF ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES FAVORING SOME RISK FOR STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS.

...MID-UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY...
STRENGTHENING WAA IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ON THE NOSE OF A 60+ KT SWLY
LLJ...DOWNSTREAM FROM AN INITIAL LEE CYCLONE WHICH WILL DEVELOP EWD
ACROSS SD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. A WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND
LATE ARRIVAL OF THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT PROBABLE UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER 12Z.
THUS...DESPITE MUCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND STRONG EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR...WILL NOT ADD ANY HAIL PROBABILITIES IN THIS UPDATE.

..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 04/02/2011

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KCAR [021552]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KCAR 021552
LSRCAR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1152 AM EDT SAT APR 02 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1255 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG BUCKSPORT 44.57N 68.80W
04/01/2011 HANCOCK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

COMBINATION OF HEAVY WET SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS SNAPPED
TREES AND BROUGHT POWERLINES DOWN ON ROUTE 46.

0100 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG ELLSWORTH 44.54N 68.42W
04/01/2011 HANCOCK ME UTILITY COMPANY

POWER COMPANY REPORTS 1190 HOMES WITHOUT POWER IN HANCOCK
COUNTY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND HIGH WINDS.

0100 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG MACHIAS 44.72N 67.46W
04/01/2011 WASHINGTON ME UTILITY COMPANY

POWER POWER COMPANY REPORTS 350 HOMES WITHOUT POWER IN
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF HEAVY
SNOW AND HIGH WINDS.

0110 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 7 SSW BAR HARBOR 44.29N 68.26W
04/01/2011 HANCOCK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

COMBINATION OF HEAVY WET SNOW AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
BROUGHT DOWN POWER LINES IN SOUTHWEST HARBOR.

0130 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG MOUNT DESERT 44.39N 68.30W
04/01/2011 HANCOCK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

COMBINATION OF HEAVY WET SNOW AND WIND BROUGHT A FEW
TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN IN TOWN.

0140 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG GOULDSBORO 44.48N 68.04W
04/01/2011 HANCOCK ME PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTS PEAK WIND GUST OF 57MPH.

0200 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG MACHIAS 44.72N 67.46W
04/01/2011 WASHINGTON ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

STRONG WIND GUSTS BLEW DOOR OFF RITE AID ONTO A PARKED
CAR.

0340 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG BANGOR 44.80N 68.78W
04/01/2011 PENOBSCOT ME UTILITY COMPANY

POWER COMPANY REPORTS 2100 HOMES WITHOUT POWER IN
SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF HEAVY
SNOW AND HIGH WINDS.

&&

$$

JAH

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KJKL [021534]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KJKL 021534
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1134 AM EDT SAT APR 02 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0850 PM HAIL SW SOMERSET 37.08N 84.61W
04/01/2011 M0.50 INCH PULASKI KY TRAINED SPOTTER

A LITTLE LARGER THAN PEA SIZED HAIL FELL SOUTHWEST OF
SOMERSET.

0905 PM HAIL 1 W ROCKCASTLE SPRINGS 37.02N 84.32W
04/01/2011 M0.50 INCH LAUREL KY PUBLIC

LARGEST SIZE 3/8 INCH IN DIAMETER...FELL FOR 3 MINUTES.
COCORAHS OBSERVER.

0919 PM HAIL VOX 36.99N 84.20W
04/01/2011 E0.25 INCH LAUREL KY PUBLIC

PEA SIZED HAIL COVERED THE GROUND AT LAUREL LAKES

0930 PM HAIL CORBIN 36.94N 84.11W
04/01/2011 E0.25 INCH WHITLEY KY TRAINED SPOTTER

0937 PM HAIL WOODBINE 36.90N 84.09W
04/01/2011 E1.75 INCH WHITLEY KY FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

REPORT FROM WOODBINE FIRE DEPARTMENT.

0950 PM HAIL BARBOURVILLE 36.87N 83.88W
04/01/2011 E0.25 INCH KNOX KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

1008 PM HAIL ARJAY 36.81N 83.65W
04/01/2011 E1.00 INCH BELL KY PUBLIC

1011 PM HAIL PINEVILLE 36.76N 83.70W
04/01/2011 E0.50 INCH BELL KY PUBLIC

1027 PM HAIL FONDE 36.60N 83.88W
04/01/2011 E0.75 INCH BELL KY TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED PENNY SIZED HAIL IN FONDE.

1125 PM HAIL 1 SSE NED 37.40N 83.26W
04/01/2011 E0.25 INCH PERRY KY TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL WAS STILL FALLING WHEN REPORT WAS CALLED IN.

1153 PM HAIL THORNTON 37.16N 82.74W
04/01/2011 E0.88 INCH LETCHER KY TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN THORNTON.

1157 PM HAIL ISLAND CITY 37.37N 83.77W
04/01/2011 E0.25 INCH OWSLEY KY CO-OP OBSERVER

HAIL SLIGHTLY SMALLER THAN THE SIZE OF PEAS WAS REPORTED
IN ISLAND CITY.

&&

$$

DSHALLEN

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KOTX [021341]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KOTX 021341
LSROTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
640 AM PDT SAT APR 02 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 WNW LEAVENWORTH 47.60N 120.68W
03/31/2011 E3.00 INCH CHELAN WA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW MELT RESULTED IN
MULTIPLE MUD AND ROCK SLIDES...SOME 6-FOOT DEEP...CLOSING
HIGHWAY 2 BETWEEN MILEMARKERS 99 AND 84. THREE-DAY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGED FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES. SLIDE
OCCURRED LATE THURSDAY 3/31...EXACT TIME UNKNOWN AT THIS
TIME. ROAD REMAINS CLOSED AS OF 6AM ON 4/2.

&&

$$

SBODNAR

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KPBZ [021259]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KPBZ 021259
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
858 AM EDT SAT APR 02 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM SNOW 3 SE DAVIS 2.9 SE 39.10N 79.43W
04/02/2011 M6.3 INCH TUCKER WV COCORAHS

COCORAHS

0632 AM SNOW 1 N TERRA ALTA 39.45N 79.55W
04/02/2011 M3.5 INCH PRESTON WV CO-OP OBSERVER

CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1100593 PBZ1100594

$$

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021248
SWODY1
SPC AC 021247

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT SAT APR 02 2011

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID ATLANTIC STATES...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM
TRANSLATING RAPIDLY ESEWD THROUGH THE REGION WITH AN UPSTREAM
IMPULSE AMPLIFYING OVER IL/IND WHICH WILL ARRIVE LATER TODAY. THE
AMBIENT AIR MASS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S. BUT...PROVIDED BREAKS IN CLOUD SHIELD CURRENTLY
CRESTING THE BLUE RIDGE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 300-500 J/KG BY
AFTERNOON.

FORCING FOR ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK
ATTENDING UPSTREAM VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO FOSTER SCATTERED...LOW-TOPPED
TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY STRONG WNWLY TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD.

...GREAT BASIN INTO SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...

POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH WRN PARTS OF WA/ORE IS
FORECAST TO UNDERGO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WHILE TRANSLATING ESEWD
THROUGH THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND GREAT BASIN. ASSOCIATED
PACIFIC FRONT WILL CONCURRENTLY ADVANCE EWD...AND WILL LIKELY EXTEND
FROM DEEPENING LEE CYCLONE OVER SERN MT SWWD THROUGH SERN ID...NRN
UT AND CNTRL NV BY 03/00Z. PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
RATHER DRY WITH PW VALUES LESS THAN 0.5 INCH. HOWEVER...WEAK
DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST LATER TODAY AS DAYTIME HEATING AND
MIDLEVEL COOLING/HEIGHT FALLS CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING OF LOW TO
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.

FRONTAL UPLIFT...OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND INCREASING INFLUENCE OF
MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
DEEP...WELL-MIXED SUB-CLOUD CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT
POTENTIAL WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

..MEAD/SMITH.. 04/02/2011

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KGSP [021209]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 021209
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
809 AM EDT SAT APR 02 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0806 AM SNOW 2 SW GRANDFATHER MOUNTA 36.08N 81.87W
04/02/2011 M1.5 INCH AVERY NC TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

NED

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 020901
SWOD48
SPC AC 020900

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT SAT APR 02 2011

VALID 051200Z - 101200Z

...DAY 4 /TUE APR 5/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 02/00Z GFS AND ECMWF...WITH MOST MREF
MEMBERS IN MORE AGREEMENT TO THE GFS TAKING THE DAY 2-3 TROUGH AXIS
TO THE ERN SEABOARD BY TUESDAY EVENING /06/00Z/. THERE IS AGREEMENT
FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH SOME SEVERE ACROSS FL DURING DAY 4...AND
TSTMS POSSIBLE NWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
STRONGER FORCING PRECLUDES THE INCLUSION OF A REGIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT ON DAY 4.

...DAY 5 /WED APR 6/ TO DAY 8 /SAT APR 9/...
BEYOND DAY 4...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
INDICATING A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH EVOLVES ACROSS THE WRN U.S. DURING
DAYS 5 /WED/ AND 6 /THU/...WITH MODEL SPREAD INCREASING DURING DAYS
7 /FRI/ AND 8 /SAT/ WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH. GIVEN
THESE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AND TIMING DIFFERENCES
OF IMPULSES EJECTING EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...THE
POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA IS
UNPREDICTABLE.

..PETERS.. 04/02/2011

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 020738
SWODY3
SPC AC 020737

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 AM CDT SAT APR 02 2011

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E TX TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES AND NWD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS...

...E TX TO CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES NWD TO TN/OH VALLEYS...
THE 00Z GFS IS NOW FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE PROGRESSION OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH ON MONDAY ACROSS AND E OF THE MS VALLEY
REGION. IN ADDITION TO THESE TIMING DIFFERENCES...THE GFS INDICATED
STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS...WHILE THE
ECMWF INDICATED STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT WITH A MORE
SWD TRACKING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

EACH MODEL SHOWED STRONG BAROCLINICITY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD
ACROSS THE OH/TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS...WITH THE GFS AGAIN FASTER
WITH EWD PROGRESSION SHOWING THE FRONT REACHING THE ERN SEABOARD BY
12Z TUESDAY. DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF...THIS TROUGH WILL UNDERGO STRENGTHENING AS IT BECOMES
NEUTRALLY ORIENTED...SUPPORTING INCREASING SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS
/60-80 KT/ FROM TX/LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE TN/OH VALLEYS...WITH
FURTHER STRENGTHENING /90-100 KT/ MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW BACKS TO
SLY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A 50-60 KT SSWLY LLJ FROM THE LOWER MS TO
LOWER OH VALLEYS WILL SUPPORT MOISTURE SPREADING NWD ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR.

TSTMS WILL BE LIKELY AS THE COLD FRONT ENCOUNTERS THE DESTABILIZING
AIR MASS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION
OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
FROM THE TN VALLEY SWD. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED MAINLY
PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT SUGGEST A LINEAR STORM MODE WITH BOWING
SEGMENTS LIKELY. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF THE BULK SHEAR /40-55
KT/ MAY SUPPORT EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN THE QLCS.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO BE MARGINAL WITH NWD EXTENT...THE
STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD OVERCOME THAT
LIMITING FACTOR AND SUPPORT MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY.

IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...THEN THERE WILL BE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.

..PETERS.. 04/02/2011

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 020600
SWODY2
SPC AC 020558

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT SAT APR 02 2011

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FROM
THE MIDWEST/LOWER OH VALLEY TO THE SRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH AMPLIFYING/DEVELOPING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. DURING DAY
2...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z GFS FASTER WITH EWD PROGRESSION THAN THE
WRF-NAM. BY 12Z MONDAY...A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. 60-90 METER 500 MB
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED FROM OK/KS TO IA/NRN IL DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
50-60 KT FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY AND MIDWEST BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A FURTHER INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT TO 70-90 KT
FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO LOWER OH VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE...MODELS HAVE TRENDED NORTH WITH THE INITIAL POSITION
OF LOW PRESSURE AT 12Z SUNDAY...WITH THIS FEATURE LOCATED OVER SERN
SD. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EWD INTO NERN IA BY 04/00Z...AND THEN REACH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE SSEWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...AND INTERSECT AND
OVERTAKE A DRY LINE FROM ERN KS THROUGH CENTRAL OK TO NRN TX FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE NRN EXTENT OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL PROCEED ESEWD THROUGH THE LOWER MO VALLEY REACHING
LOWER MI TO THE OZARKS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NEWD FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TO LOWER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

...SRN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST/LOWER OH VALLEY...
SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER MO TO LOWER OH VALLEY DURING DAY 2...
BENEATH A STRONG EML/CAP. THIS CAP WILL LIMIT TSTM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING TSTM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES INTO NRN/CENTRAL
IL...NRN MO AND INTERSECTS THE DRY LINE IN NERN-ERN KS MID-LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY...STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SUPERCELLULAR
STORMS PRODUCING A FEW TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL /SOME SIGNIFICANT/ AND
DAMAGING WINDS. A SECONDARY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 45-65 KT
FROM OK TO MO/IL SUNDAY EVENING...FURTHER ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHEAR
FOR AN INCREASED TORNADO THREAT. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SWD
OVERNIGHT...STRONG WIND FIELDS COUPLED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT PERSISTING WELL AFTER
DARK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MO/NRN AR TO LOWER OH VALLEY.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WHETHER TSTMS INITIATE SWD
ALONG THE DRY LINE...S OF THE KS BORDER...THROUGH OK TO NRN TX. THE
00Z WRF-NAM/21Z ETAKF MEMBER OF THE SREF/12Z ECMWF DO NOT INITIATE
ACROSS THESE AREAS...WHILE 00Z GFS TO SOME EXTENT AND THE EACH OF
THE 21Z WRF-ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF SUGGEST STORMS DO FORM INTO OK/N
TX SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES...STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES /8-9 C PER KM/... MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING
BULK SHEAR TO 50 KT INDICATES A SLIGHT RISK REMAINS WARRANTED WITH
SWD EXTENT. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THEN THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
LARGE HAIL...SOME SIGNIFICANT...PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT REACHING
THIS REGION AND PROGRESSING SWD INTO TX.

...SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...
MODELS SUGGEST ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD /SUNDAY MORNING/ ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITHIN THE NOSE
OF A STRONG SWLY LLJ WHERE WAA WILL SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY.
STRENGTHENING WSWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
THE LLJ SHIFTING EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY SHOULD MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT
UVVS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTM DEVELOPMENT TOWARD LOWER
MI BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS ELEVATED ACTIVITY.

...CENTRAL TX...
FARTHER S...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SWD INTO THIS REGION.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 30-40 KT SUGGESTS
ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. UNCERTAINTY IN STORM INITIATION
THIS FAR SOUTH AMONGST THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND THE MODELS THAT DO
INITIATE OVER THIS AREA SUGGEST THE TIMING IS AFTER 04/03-06Z.
GIVEN THESE FACTORS...ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES /5 PERCENT/ ARE
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

..PETERS.. 04/02/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 020537
SWODY1
SPC AC 020535

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT SAT APR 02 2011

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL EJECT EWD TODAY AS THE NEXT
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC NW AND INTERMOUNTAIN W. THE FRONT
FOLLOWING THE FORMER SYSTEM WILL STALL OVER CNTRL TX AND DEEP S
EARLY TODAY...THEN REDEVELOP NWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE MOVING
INTO THE NWRN STATES WILL SWEEP INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...INTERMOUNTAIN W...
A STREAM OF PWATS IN EXCESS OF A HALF OF AN INCH WILL ADVECT NEWD
INTO ERN NV...UT AND PARTS OF ERN ID AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING COLD
FRONT BY SATURDAY AFTN. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT /150 M H5 HEIGHT FALLS/ AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD BANDS/CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION/TSTMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY WILL
NOT BE PARTICULARLY ROBUST...RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS AND
MAGNITUDE OF ASCENT MAY AUGMENT PRODUCTION OF BOWING SEGMENTS WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS SATURDAY AFTN AND EVENING.

...UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY/MIDWEST...
STRONG SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND TRANSPORT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
NWD. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE CAPPED BY A STOUT EML SPREADING ONTO THE
PLAINS AND PROSPECTS FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...A LOW PROBABILITY FOR ELEVATED TSTMS MAY
EVOLVE OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AS MOISTENING OCCURS
AT THE BASE OF THE EML/NOSE OF THE LLJ. SREF AND DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS WITH CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS AND IT NOW APPEARS THAT ANY ELEVATED SEVERE
HAIL THREAT WILL EVOLVE JUST BEYOND 12Z SUNDAY.

...MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL CHARACTERIZED BY H5 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW
MINUS 30 DEG C WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL EXIST
FOR SCATTERED...LARGELY DIURNALLY-BASED TSTMS...SOME WITH SMALL
HAIL.

..RACY/GARNER.. 04/02/2011

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KJKL [020404]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 020404
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1204 AM EDT SAT APR 02 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1153 PM HAIL THORNTON 37.16N 82.74W
04/01/2011 E0.88 INCH LETCHER KY TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN THORNTON.

&&

$$

AR

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KJKL [020403]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 020403
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1203 AM EDT SAT APR 02 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1157 PM HAIL ISLAND CITY 37.37N 83.77W
04/01/2011 E0.25 INCH OWSLEY KY CO-OP OBSERVER

HAIL SLIGHTLY SMALLER THAN THE SIZE OF PEAS WAS REPORTED
IN ISLAND CITY.

&&

$$

AR

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