KOHX [180358]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KOHX 180358
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1057 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0349 PM HEAVY RAIN GALLATIN 36.38N 86.45W
09/17/2012 M1.50 INCH SUMNER TN PUBLIC

1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN GALLATIN IN THE PAST 8 HOURS

0351 PM FLOOD 3 N MURFREESBORO 35.90N 86.39W
09/17/2012 RUTHERFORD TN TWITTER

FLOODING ON SEIGELS CAMPUS NEAR SEIGEL ROAD IN
MURFREESBORO

0400 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 ENE GORDONSVILLE 36.19N 85.91W
09/17/2012 M2.00 INCH SMITH TN TWITTER

2.00 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST 12 HOURS IN
GORDONSVILLE

0400 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 E SHELBYVILLE 35.49N 86.34W
09/17/2012 BEDFORD TN TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN ON A PROPERTY ON HIGHWAY 41A
SOUTH ABOUT 6 MILES EAST OF SHELBYVILLE. SHINGLES WERE
ALSO BLOWN OFF HOUSE.

0425 PM FLOOD SHELBYVILLE 35.49N 86.45W
09/17/2012 BEDFORD TN EMERGENCY MNGR

ONE FOOT OF STANDING WATER ALONG DAVIS LANE IN
SHELBYVILLE

0425 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 NW MANCHESTER 35.54N 86.17W
09/17/2012 COFFEE TN 911 CALL CENTER

TREE DOWN ON 16TH MODEL ROAD

0428 PM TSTM WND DMG 9 NNW MANCHESTER 35.59N 86.14W
09/17/2012 COFFEE TN 911 CALL CENTER

TREE DOWN ON COLE RIDGE ROAD NORTH OF MANCHESTER

0430 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 WNW MCMINNVILLE 35.72N 85.86W
09/17/2012 WARREN TN 911 CALL CENTER

SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN AT BETHANY ROAD AND
NASHVILLE HIGHWAY WEST OF MCMINNVILLE.

0445 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 6 NNW MANCHESTER 35.55N 86.12W
09/17/2012 COFFEE TN TRAINED SPOTTER

FUNNEL CLOUD SPOTTED NEAR GOOSE POND ROAD AND FREDONIA
ROAD NORTH OF MANCHESTER

0458 PM WALL CLOUD 12 W MCMINNVILLE 35.69N 85.99W
09/17/2012 WARREN TN TRAINED SPOTTER

WALL CLOUD WITH FUNNEL CLOUD SPOTTED NEAR IVY BLUFF AND
HWY 53 ABOUT 12 MILES WEST OF MCMINNVILLE

0513 PM FLOOD 1 E SHELBYVILLE 35.49N 86.43W
09/17/2012 BEDFORD TN TWITTER

ONE FOOT STANDING WATER ON DAVIS LANE IN SHELBYVILLE

0527 PM HEAVY RAIN MINOR HILL 35.04N 87.17W
09/17/2012 M5.11 INCH GILES TN PUBLIC

5.11 INCHES MEASURED RAINFALL IN MINOR HILL

0634 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NE MURFREESBORO 35.86N 86.38W
09/17/2012 M3.20 INCH RUTHERFORD TN TWITTER

3.5 INCHES SINCE 7 AM AT NORTHFIELD AND HIGHLAND IN
MURFREESBORO

0650 PM HEAVY RAIN COOKEVILLE 36.16N 85.51W
09/17/2012 M5.35 INCH PUTNAM TN TWITTER

5.35 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN COOKEVILLE. 3.00 INCHES FELL
IN A 2 HOUR TIME PERIOD.

0654 PM FLOOD LIVINGSTON 36.39N 85.33W
09/17/2012 OVERTON TN 911 CALL CENTER

SEVERAL ROADS AROUND LIVINGSTON HAVE BEEN CLOSED DUE TO
FLOODING

0654 PM HEAVY RAIN MURFREESBORO 35.85N 86.39W
09/17/2012 M4.79 INCH RUTHERFORD TN BROADCAST MEDIA

4.79 INCHES OF RAINFALL MEASURED IN MURFREESBORO BY
WTVF SKYNET GUAGE

0704 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 SW COOKEVILLE 36.15N 85.52W
09/17/2012 PUTNAM TN TWITTER

SWIFT WATER RESCUE TOOK PLACE AT WILLOW AND JACKSON
ROAD IN COOKEVILLE. WATER WAS SEVERAL FEET DEEP AND
JACKSON ROAD WAS CLOSED.

0717 PM FLASH FLOOD COOKEVILLE 36.16N 85.51W
09/17/2012 PUTNAM TN EMERGENCY MNGR

MUTIPLE VEHICLES STRANDED IN THE COOKEVILLE AREA. WITH
WATER RESCUES ONGOING. MEASURED 3.88 INCHES OF RAINFALL
AT PUTNAM COUNTY EOC.


&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1200037 OHX1200039 OHX1200038 OHX1200051 OHX1200040
OHX1200052 OHX1200053 OHX1200054 OHX1200041 OHX1200042 OHX1200043
OHX1200047 OHX1200048 OHX1200049 OHX1200044 OHX1200050 OHX1200046
OHX1200045

$$

31

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KOHX [180339]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOHX 180339
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1039 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 WNW MCMINNVILLE 35.72N 85.86W
09/17/2012 WARREN TN 911 CALL CENTER

SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN AT BETHANY ROAD AND
NASHVILLE HIGHWAY WEST OF MCMINNVILLE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1200054

$$

11

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KOHX [180320]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KOHX 180320
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1019 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0349 PM HEAVY RAIN GALLATIN 36.38N 86.45W
09/17/2012 M1.50 INCH SUMNER TN PUBLIC

1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN GALLATIN IN THE PAST 8 HOURS

0351 PM FLOOD 3 N MURFREESBORO 35.90N 86.39W
09/17/2012 RUTHERFORD TN TWITTER

FLOODING ON SEIGELS CAMPUS NEAR SEIGEL ROAD IN
MURFREESBORO

0400 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 ENE GORDONSVILLE 36.19N 85.91W
09/17/2012 M2.00 INCH SMITH TN TWITTER

2.00 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST 12 HOURS IN
GORDONSVILLE

0400 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 E SHELBYVILLE 35.49N 86.34W
09/17/2012 BEDFORD TN TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN ON A PROPERTY ON HIGHWAY 41A
SOUTH ABOUT 6 MILES EAST OF SHELBYVILLE. SHINGLES WERE
ALSO BLOWN OFF HOUSE.

0425 PM FLOOD SHELBYVILLE 35.49N 86.45W
09/17/2012 BEDFORD TN EMERGENCY MNGR

ONE FOOT OF STANDING WATER ALONG DAVIS LANE IN
SHELBYVILLE

0425 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 NW MANCHESTER 35.54N 86.17W
09/17/2012 COFFEE TN 911 CALL CENTER

TREE DOWN ON 16TH MODEL ROAD

0428 PM TSTM WND DMG 9 NNW MANCHESTER 35.59N 86.14W
09/17/2012 COFFEE TN 911 CALL CENTER

TREE DOWN ON COLE RIDGE ROAD NORTH OF MANCHESTER

0445 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 6 NNW MANCHESTER 35.55N 86.12W
09/17/2012 COFFEE TN TRAINED SPOTTER

FUNNEL CLOUD SPOTTED NEAR GOOSE POND ROAD AND FREDONIA
ROAD NORTH OF MANCHESTER

0458 PM WALL CLOUD 12 W MCMINNVILLE 35.69N 85.99W
09/17/2012 WARREN TN TRAINED SPOTTER

WALL CLOUD WITH FUNNEL CLOUD SPOTTED NEAR IVY BLUFF AND
HWY 53 ABOUT 12 MILES WEST OF MCMINNVILLE

0513 PM FLOOD 1 E SHELBYVILLE 35.49N 86.43W
09/17/2012 BEDFORD TN TWITTER

ONE FOOT STANDING WATER ON DAVIS LANE IN SHELBYVILLE

0527 PM HEAVY RAIN MINOR HILL 35.04N 87.17W
09/17/2012 M5.11 INCH GILES TN PUBLIC

5.11 INCHES MEASURED RAINFALL IN MINOR HILL

0634 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NE MURFREESBORO 35.86N 86.38W
09/17/2012 M3.20 INCH RUTHERFORD TN TWITTER

3.5 INCHES SINCE 7 AM AT NORTHFIELD AND HIGHLAND IN
MURFREESBORO

0650 PM HEAVY RAIN COOKEVILLE 36.16N 85.51W
09/17/2012 M5.35 INCH PUTNAM TN TWITTER

5.35 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN COOKEVILLE. 3.00 INCHES FELL
IN A 2 HOUR TIME PERIOD.

0654 PM FLOOD LIVINGSTON 36.39N 85.33W
09/17/2012 OVERTON TN 911 CALL CENTER

SEVERAL ROADS AROUND LIVINGSTON HAVE BEEN CLOSED DUE TO
FLOODING

0654 PM HEAVY RAIN MURFREESBORO 35.85N 86.39W
09/17/2012 M4.79 INCH RUTHERFORD TN BROADCAST MEDIA

4.79 INCHES OF RAINFALL MEASURED IN MURFREESBORO BY
WTVF SKYNET GUAGE

0704 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 SW COOKEVILLE 36.15N 85.52W
09/17/2012 PUTNAM TN TWITTER

SWIFT WATER RESCUE TOOK PLACE AT WILLOW AND JACKSON
ROAD IN COOKEVILLE. WATER WAS SEVERAL FEET DEEP AND
JACKSON ROAD WAS CLOSED.

0717 PM FLASH FLOOD COOKEVILLE 36.16N 85.51W
09/17/2012 PUTNAM TN EMERGENCY MNGR

MUTIPLE VEHICLES STRANDED IN THE COOKEVILLE AREA. WITH
WATER RESCUES ONGOING. MEASURED 3.88 INCHES OF RAINFALL
AT PUTNAM COUNTY EOC.


&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1200037 OHX1200039 OHX1200038 OHX1200051 OHX1200040
OHX1200052 OHX1200053 OHX1200041 OHX1200042 OHX1200043 OHX1200047
OHX1200048 OHX1200049 OHX1200044 OHX1200050 OHX1200046 OHX1200045

$$

31

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KOHX [180317]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOHX 180317
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1017 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0428 PM TSTM WND DMG 9 NNW MANCHESTER 35.59N 86.14W
09/17/2012 COFFEE TN 911 CALL CENTER

TREE DOWN ON COLE RIDGE ROAD NORTH OF MANCHESTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1200053

$$

11

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KOHX [180316]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOHX 180316
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1016 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0425 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 NW MANCHESTER 35.54N 86.17W
09/17/2012 COFFEE TN 911 CALL CENTER

TREE DOWN ON 16TH MODEL ROAD


&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1200052

$$

11

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KABQ [180311]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 180311
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
911 PM MDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0855 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE ALBUQUERQUE 35.04N 106.52W
09/17/2012 M70 MPH BERNALILLO NM OTHER FEDERAL

KIRTLAND AIR FORCE BASE


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1201311

$$

GUYER

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KABQ [180242]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 180242
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
842 PM MDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0838 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 5 S ALBUQUERQUE 35.04N 106.62W
09/17/2012 M43 MPH BERNALILLO NM ASOS

KABQ ASOS.


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1201310

$$

GUYER

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1954

ACUS11 KWNS 180222
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180221
SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-180345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1954
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0921 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN GA...FAR NWRN SC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 640...

VALID 180221Z - 180345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 640 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...LOW-END/MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT EXISTS PRIMARILY WITHIN
ERN PORTIONS OF WW 640.

DISCUSSION...A FEW CELLS AROUND 40 MILES NE OF MCN WOULD APPEAR TO
HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY...PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
SURFACE THERMAL AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY 02Z TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S. MODIFIED 00Z FFC RAOB SUGGESTS THE GREATEST BUOYANCY WOULD
EXIST HERE WITH MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG. GIVEN 0-1 KM SHEAR HAVING
INCREASED TO BETWEEN 25-30 KT PER AREA VWP DATA...ANY ONE OF THESE
CELLS COULD DEVELOP LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AS THEY EVOLVE N/NEWD
TOWARD NWRN SC.

..GRAMS.. 09/18/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON 34968246 34258225 33368238 32868258 32718291 32818337
33558378 34588375 34928347 35058310 34968246

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KJKL [180214]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 180214
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1013 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 PM HEAVY RAIN SOMERSET 37.08N 84.61W
09/17/2012 U0.00 INCH PULASKI KY 911 CALL CENTER

WATER OVER PART OF SCENIC VISTA DRIVE.


&&

$$

JJ

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KJKL [180211]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 180211
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1011 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1010 PM HEAVY RAIN MONTICELLO 36.84N 84.85W
09/17/2012 M2.83 INCH WAYNE KY CO-OP OBSERVER

2.83 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY. NO REPORTS OF LOCAL
FLOODING YET.


&&

$$

JJ

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KOHX [180210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KOHX 180210
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
910 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0349 PM HEAVY RAIN GALLATIN 36.38N 86.45W
09/17/2012 M1.50 INCH SUMNER TN PUBLIC

1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN GALLATIN IN THE PAST 8 HOURS

0351 PM FLOOD 3 N MURFREESBORO 35.90N 86.39W
09/17/2012 RUTHERFORD TN TWITTER

FLOODING ON SEIGELS CAMPUS NEAR SEIGEL ROAD IN
MURFREESBORO

0400 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 ENE GORDONSVILLE 36.19N 85.91W
09/17/2012 M2.00 INCH SMITH TN TWITTER

2.00 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST 12 HOURS IN
GORDONSVILLE

0400 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 E SHELBYVILLE 35.49N 86.34W
09/17/2012 BEDFORD TN TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN ON A PROPERTY ON HIGHWAY 41A
SOUTH ABOUT 6 MILES EAST OF SHELBYVILLE. SHINGLES WERE
ALSO BLOWN OFF HOUSE.

0425 PM FLOOD SHELBYVILLE 35.49N 86.45W
09/17/2012 BEDFORD TN EMERGENCY MNGR

ONE FOOT OF STANDING WATER ALONG DAVIS LANE IN
SHELBYVILLE

0445 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 6 NNW MANCHESTER 35.55N 86.12W
09/17/2012 COFFEE TN TRAINED SPOTTER

FUNNEL CLOUD SPOTTED NEAR GOOSE POND ROAD AND FREDONIA
ROAD NORTH OF MANCHESTER

0458 PM WALL CLOUD 12 W MCMINNVILLE 35.69N 85.99W
09/17/2012 WARREN TN TRAINED SPOTTER

WALL CLOUD WITH FUNNEL CLOUD SPOTTED NEAR IVY BLUFF AND
HWY 53 ABOUT 12 MILES WEST OF MCMINNVILLE

0513 PM FLOOD 1 E SHELBYVILLE 35.49N 86.43W
09/17/2012 BEDFORD TN TWITTER

ONE FOOT STANDING WATER ON DAVIS LANE IN SHELBYVILLE

0527 PM HEAVY RAIN MINOR HILL 35.04N 87.17W
09/17/2012 M5.11 INCH GILES TN PUBLIC

5.11 INCHES MEASURED RAINFALL IN MINOR HILL

0634 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NE MURFREESBORO 35.86N 86.38W
09/17/2012 M3.20 INCH RUTHERFORD TN TWITTER

3.5 INCHES SINCE 7 AM AT NORTHFIELD AND HIGHLAND IN
MURFREESBORO

0650 PM HEAVY RAIN COOKEVILLE 36.16N 85.51W
09/17/2012 M5.35 INCH PUTNAM TN TWITTER

5.35 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN COOKEVILLE. 3.00 INCHES FELL
IN A 2 HOUR TIME PERIOD.

0654 PM FLOOD LIVINGSTON 36.39N 85.33W
09/17/2012 OVERTON TN 911 CALL CENTER

SEVERAL ROADS AROUND LIVINGSTON HAVE BEEN CLOSED DUE TO
FLOODING

0654 PM HEAVY RAIN MURFREESBORO 35.85N 86.39W
09/17/2012 M4.79 INCH RUTHERFORD TN BROADCAST MEDIA

4.79 INCHES OF RAINFALL MEASURED IN MURFREESBORO BY
WTVF SKYNET GUAGE

0704 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 SW COOKEVILLE 36.15N 85.52W
09/17/2012 PUTNAM TN TWITTER

SWIFT WATER RESCUE TOOK PLACE AT WILLOW AND JACKSON
ROAD IN COOKEVILLE. WATER WAS SEVERAL FEET DEEP AND
JACKSON ROAD WAS CLOSED.

0717 PM FLASH FLOOD COOKEVILLE 36.16N 85.51W
09/17/2012 PUTNAM TN EMERGENCY MNGR

MUTIPLE VEHICLES STRANDED IN THE COOKEVILLE AREA. WITH
WATER RESCUES ONGOING. MEASURED 3.88 INCHES OF RAINFALL
AT PUTNAM COUNTY EOC.


&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1200037 OHX1200039 OHX1200038 OHX1200051 OHX1200040
OHX1200041 OHX1200042 OHX1200043 OHX1200047 OHX1200048 OHX1200049
OHX1200044 OHX1200050 OHX1200046 OHX1200045

$$

31

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KOHX [180156]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOHX 180156
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
856 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 E SHELBYVILLE 35.49N 86.34W
09/17/2012 BEDFORD TN TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN ON A PROPERTY ON HIGHWAY 41A
SOUTH ABOUT 6 MILES EAST OF SHELBYVILLE. SHINGLES WERE
ALSO BLOWN OFF HOUSE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1200051

$$

11

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KOHX [180141]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KOHX 180141
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
840 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0349 PM HEAVY RAIN GALLATIN 36.38N 86.45W
09/17/2012 M1.50 INCH SUMNER TN PUBLIC

1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN GALLATIN IN THE PAST 8 HOURS

0351 PM FLOOD 3 N MURFREESBORO 35.90N 86.39W
09/17/2012 RUTHERFORD TN TWITTER

FLOODING ON SEIGELS CAMPUS NEAR SEIGEL ROAD IN
MURFREESBORO

0400 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 ENE GORDONSVILLE 36.19N 85.91W
09/17/2012 M2.00 INCH SMITH TN TWITTER

2.00 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST 12 HOURS IN
GORDONSVILLE

0425 PM FLOOD SHELBYVILLE 35.49N 86.45W
09/17/2012 BEDFORD TN EMERGENCY MNGR

ONE FOOT OF STANDING WATER ALONG DAVIS LANE IN
SHELBYVILLE

0445 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 6 NNW MANCHESTER 35.55N 86.12W
09/17/2012 COFFEE TN TRAINED SPOTTER

FUNNEL CLOUD SPOTTED NEAR GOOSE POND ROAD AND FREDONIA
ROAD NORTH OF MANCHESTER

0458 PM WALL CLOUD 12 W MCMINNVILLE 35.69N 85.99W
09/17/2012 WARREN TN TRAINED SPOTTER

WALL CLOUD WITH FUNNEL CLOUD SPOTTED NEAR IVY BLUFF AND
HWY 53 ABOUT 12 MILES WEST OF MCMINNVILLE

0513 PM FLOOD 1 E SHELBYVILLE 35.49N 86.43W
09/17/2012 BEDFORD TN TWITTER

ONE FOOT STANDING WATER ON DAVIS LANE IN SHELBYVILLE

0527 PM HEAVY RAIN MINOR HILL 35.04N 87.17W
09/17/2012 M5.11 INCH GILES TN PUBLIC

5.11 INCHES MEASURED RAINFALL IN MINOR HILL

0634 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NE MURFREESBORO 35.86N 86.38W
09/17/2012 M3.20 INCH RUTHERFORD TN TWITTER

3.5 INCHES SINCE 7 AM AT NORTHFIELD AND HIGHLAND IN
MURFREESBORO

0650 PM HEAVY RAIN COOKEVILLE 36.16N 85.51W
09/17/2012 M5.35 INCH PUTNAM TN TWITTER

5.35 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN COOKEVILLE. 3.00 INCHES FELL
IN A 2 HOUR TIME PERIOD.

0654 PM FLOOD LIVINGSTON 36.39N 85.33W
09/17/2012 OVERTON TN 911 CALL CENTER

SEVERAL ROADS AROUND LIVINGSTON HAVE BEEN CLOSED DUE TO
FLOODING

0654 PM HEAVY RAIN MURFREESBORO 35.85N 86.39W
09/17/2012 M4.79 INCH RUTHERFORD TN BROADCAST MEDIA

4.79 INCHES OF RAINFALL MEASURED IN MURFREESBORO BY
WTVF SKYNET GUAGE

0704 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 SW COOKEVILLE 36.15N 85.52W
09/17/2012 PUTNAM TN TWITTER

SWIFT WATER RESCUE TOOK PLACE AT WILLOW AND JACKSON
ROAD IN COOKEVILLE. WATER WAS SEVERAL FEET DEEP AND
JACKSON ROAD WAS CLOSED.

0717 PM FLASH FLOOD COOKEVILLE 36.16N 85.51W
09/17/2012 PUTNAM TN EMERGENCY MNGR

MUTIPLE VEHICLES STRANDED IN THE COOKEVILLE AREA. WITH
WATER RESCUES ONGOING. MEASURED 3.88 INCHES OF RAINFALL
AT PUTNAM COUNTY EOC.


&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1200037 OHX1200039 OHX1200038 OHX1200040 OHX1200041
OHX1200042 OHX1200043 OHX1200047 OHX1200048 OHX1200049 OHX1200044
OHX1200050 OHX1200046 OHX1200045

$$

31

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KIND [180139]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIND 180139
LSRIND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
930 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0929 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 S PARAGON 39.35N 86.56W
09/17/2012 M1.30 INCH MORGAN IN COCORAHS


&&

EVENT NUMBER IND1200745

$$

ELB

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KOHX [180125]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOHX 180125
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
825 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0654 PM HEAVY RAIN MURFREESBORO 35.85N 86.39W
09/17/2012 M4.79 INCH RUTHERFORD TN BROADCAST MEDIA

4.79 INCHES OF RAINFALL MEASURED IN MURFREESBORO BY
WTVF SKYNET GUAGE


&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1200050

$$

11

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KOHX [180120]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOHX 180120
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
819 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0650 PM HEAVY RAIN COOKEVILLE 36.16N 85.51W
09/17/2012 M5.35 INCH PUTNAM TN TWITTER

5.35 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN COOKEVILLE. 3.00 INCHES FELL
IN A 2 HOUR TIME PERIOD.


&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1200049

$$

11

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KOHX [180117]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOHX 180117
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
817 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0634 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NE MURFREESBORO 35.86N 86.38W
09/17/2012 M3.20 INCH RUTHERFORD TN TWITTER

3.5 INCHES SINCE 7 AM AT NORTHFIELD AND HIGHLAND IN
MURFREESBORO


&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1200048

$$

11

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KOHX [180114]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOHX 180114
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
814 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0527 PM HEAVY RAIN MINOR HILL 35.04N 87.17W
09/17/2012 M5.11 INCH GILES TN PUBLIC

5.11 INCHES MEASURED RAINFALL IN MINOR HILL


&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1200047

$$

11

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KOHX [180112]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KOHX 180112
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
812 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0349 PM HEAVY RAIN GALLATIN 36.38N 86.45W
09/17/2012 M1.50 INCH SUMNER TN PUBLIC

1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN GALLATIN IN THE PAST 8 HOURS

0351 PM FLOOD 3 N MURFREESBORO 35.90N 86.39W
09/17/2012 RUTHERFORD TN TWITTER

FLOODING ON SEIGELS CAMPUS NEAR SEIGEL ROAD IN
MURFREESBORO

0400 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 ENE GORDONSVILLE 36.19N 85.91W
09/17/2012 M2.00 INCH SMITH TN TWITTER

2.00 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST 12 HOURS IN
GORDONSVILLE

0425 PM FLOOD SHELBYVILLE 35.49N 86.45W
09/17/2012 BEDFORD TN EMERGENCY MNGR

ONE FOOT OF STANDING WATER ALONG DAVIS LANE IN
SHELBYVILLE

0445 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 6 NNW MANCHESTER 35.55N 86.12W
09/17/2012 COFFEE TN TRAINED SPOTTER

FUNNEL CLOUD SPOTTED NEAR GOOSE POND ROAD AND FREDONIA
ROAD NORTH OF MANCHESTER

0458 PM WALL CLOUD 12 W MCMINNVILLE 35.69N 85.99W
09/17/2012 WARREN TN TRAINED SPOTTER

WALL CLOUD WITH FUNNEL CLOUD SPOTTED NEAR IVY BLUFF AND
HWY 53 ABOUT 12 MILES WEST OF MCMINNVILLE

0513 PM FLOOD 1 E SHELBYVILLE 35.49N 86.43W
09/17/2012 BEDFORD TN TWITTER

ONE FOOT STANDING WATER ON DAVIS LANE IN SHELBYVILLE

0654 PM FLOOD LIVINGSTON 36.39N 85.33W
09/17/2012 OVERTON TN 911 CALL CENTER

SEVERAL ROADS AROUND LIVINGSTON HAVE BEEN CLOSED DUE TO
FLOODING

0704 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 SW COOKEVILLE 36.15N 85.52W
09/17/2012 PUTNAM TN TWITTER

SWIFT WATER RESCUE TOOK PLACE AT WILLOW AND JACKSON
ROAD IN COOKEVILLE. WATER WAS SEVERAL FEET DEEP AND
JACKSON ROAD WAS CLOSED.

0717 PM FLASH FLOOD COOKEVILLE 36.16N 85.51W
09/17/2012 PUTNAM TN EMERGENCY MNGR

MUTIPLE VEHICLES STRANDED IN THE COOKEVILLE AREA. WITH
WATER RESCUES ONGOING. MEASURED 3.88 INCHES OF RAINFALL
AT PUTNAM COUNTY EOC.


&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1200037 OHX1200039 OHX1200038 OHX1200040 OHX1200041
OHX1200042 OHX1200043 OHX1200044 OHX1200046 OHX1200045

$$

31

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KOHX [180107]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOHX 180107
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
807 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0704 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 SW COOKEVILLE 36.15N 85.52W
09/17/2012 PUTNAM TN TWITTER

SWIFT WATER RESCUE TOOK PLACE AT WILLOW AND JACKSON
ROAD IN COOKEVILLE. WATER WAS SEVERAL FEET DEEP AND
JACKSON ROAD WAS CLOSED.


&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1200046

$$

11

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180059
SWODY1
SPC AC 180057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN VA/WRN ND SWWD TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

...SERN U.S. INTO THE CAROLINAS/SRN VA...
A BROAD ZONE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY OF E TX/WRN LA EWD AND NEWD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...AND AS FAR NEWD AS VA/WV. THIS CONVECTION IS ONGOING AS
A RESULT OF QG ASCENT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW CROSSING THE WRN GULF
COAST REGION...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW ANALYZED INVOF THE
SERN LA/SRN MS BORDER.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD/ENEWD OVERNIGHT...INCREASING FLOW
ALOFT -- PARTICULARLY IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER -- WILL ENHANCE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THUS...AS THE ONGOING AREA OF STORMS
CONTINUES/SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST -- AND A POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE INCREASE OCCURS FARTHER W ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM -- THREAT
FOR ISOLATED GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL
CONTINUE. THE ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY SPREAD AS FAR NEWD AS
NWRN NC/SWRN VA OVERNIGHT...AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR SPREADS NWD WITH
TIME BENEATH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

..GOSS.. 09/18/2012

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KHUN [172112]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHUN 172112
LSRHUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
412 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0350 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 S FLORENCE 34.75N 87.67W
09/17/2012 COLBERT AL EMERGENCY MNGR

FIVE FEET OF WATER WAS COVERING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHGATE
MALL PARKING LOT. ONE CAR AT THIS LOCATION WAS ALMOST
COMPLETLY SUBMERGED.


&&

$$

KWEBER

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KHUN [172105]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHUN 172105
LSRHUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
405 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0352 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SW THREET 34.91N 87.88W
09/17/2012 M4.25 INCH LAUDERDALE AL COCORAHS

4.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL WAS MEASURED IN 13 HOURS.


&&

$$

KWEBER

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KHUN [172103]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHUN 172103
LSRHUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
403 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0246 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 S FLORENCE 34.76N 87.67W
09/17/2012 COLBERT AL BROADCAST MEDIA

AT LEAST 3 FEET OF WATER ESTIMATED OVER LOCATIONS NEAR
WOODWARD AVENUE NEAR THE PIZZA HUT.


&&

$$

KWEBER

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KOHX [172101]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOHX 172101
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
401 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0349 PM HEAVY RAIN GALLATIN 36.38N 86.45W
09/17/2012 M1.50 INCH SUMNER TN PUBLIC

1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN GALLATIN IN THE PAST 8 HOURS


&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1200037

$$

BW

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1951

ACUS11 KWNS 172053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172053
NCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-172230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1951
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TN...NE AL...NW GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 172053Z - 172230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NE AL...NW GA AND SE
TN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WW ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE
RULED ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
WHERE THE AIRMASS IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE. IN SPITE OF THIS...SOME CELLS
ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF ROTATION MAINLY DUE TO THE MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THE LATEST WSR-88D VWP AT HUNTSVILLE AL SHOWS SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH AN ESTIMATED 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 25 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS...SFC DEWPOINTS
APPROACHING 70 F AND BACKED SFC WINDS MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED IN CASE WW ISSUANCE BECOMES NECESSARY.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 09/17/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON 33238572 33298679 33948757 34628735 35498637 35918524
35738450 35188427 34538447 33238572

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KHUN [172047]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHUN 172047
LSRHUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
347 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1216 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 SSW FLORENCE 34.73N 87.70W
09/17/2012 COLBERT AL EMERGENCY MNGR

CAVE STREET WAS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.


&&

$$

KWEBER

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KMKX [172041]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 172041
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
341 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM TSTM WND GST 4 SW MILWAUKEE 42.99N 87.97W
09/17/2012 E50 MPH MILWAUKEE WI TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 40-50 MPH WIND WITH PEA SIZE HAIL AT STATE HWY
100 AND LINCOLN AVE.


&&

$$

BHAHN

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KMKX [172036]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 172036
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
336 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0332 PM HAIL HALES CORNERS 42.94N 88.05W
09/17/2012 M0.75 INCH MILWAUKEE WI AMATEUR RADIO


&&

$$

BHAHN

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KMKX [172029]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 172029
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM HAIL 5 SE WAUKESHA 42.96N 88.17W
09/17/2012 E0.50 INCH WAUKESHA WI AMATEUR RADIO

1/2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.


&&

$$

BHAHN

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KDVN [172027]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 172027
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
326 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM HAIL MILLEDGEVILLE 41.96N 89.78W
09/17/2012 M0.25 INCH CARROLL IL LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

GROSS

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KLOT [172003]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 172003
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
303 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0248 PM TSTM WND GST DURAND 42.44N 89.33W
09/17/2012 M46 MPH WINNEBAGO IL MESONET


&&

$$

ACS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 172002
SWODY1
SPC AC 172000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF ERN AL INTO
WRN AND CNTRL GA AND SERN TN...

...ERN AL...SERN TN THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL GA...

PRIMARY CHANGE TO THIS OUTLOOK IS TO EXPAND THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
FARTHER NORTH IN RESPONSE TO EXPECTED INCREASE IN 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS
SIZE AND DEEP SHEAR AS LOW LEVEL JET AND MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHEN
IN RESPONSE TO EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER LA.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH OVERALL THREAT
COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY ONGOING CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS IN THE WARM SECTOR.

..DIAL.. 09/17/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT MON SEP 17 2012/

...SYNOPSIS...

CONSIDERABLE AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL OCCUR
DURING THE D1 PERIOD OWING TO THE FORMATION OF A FULL-LATITUDE
TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WITHIN THIS
BROADER-SCALE PATTERN...A POLAR BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL JETSTREAK WILL PROGRESS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO
MIDWEST. MEANWHILE...A SUBTROPICAL BRANCH VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER
SERN TX WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR BRANCH
UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE U.P. OF MI SWWD
THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS SEWD.
BY 18/12Z...THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STRETCH FROM A DEVELOPING
CYCLONE OVER SWRN ONTARIO/UPPER OH VALLEY THROUGH THE MID SOUTH INTO
CNTRL TX. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
BRANCH VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL DEVELOP FROM S-CNTRL LA TO W-CNTRL AL
BY THE END OF THE D1 PERIOD WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD THE
TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS.

...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

THE 12Z NEW ORLEANS SOUNDING APPEARS REPRESENTATIVE OF WARM SECTOR
ENVIRONMENT...FEATURING PW VALUES AOA TWO INCHES AND MLCAPE VALUES
OF 1500-2000 J/KG...DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. THE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING A MORE IMMEDIATE
SEVERE THREAT IS A RATHER WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT PER CURRENT VAD
DATA. LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN
SUGGESTING AN INCREASE IN THE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH PHASING OF THE SRN STREAM VORTICITY
MAXIMUM WITH THE MORE INTENSE POLAR BRANCH SYSTEM. AS SUCH...EXPECT
A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SUPERCELL POTENTIAL MAINLY DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...PIEDMONT OF THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...

FORCING FOR ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE PHASING OF MULTI-STREAM TROUGHS AND OVERALL
DEEPENING OF SYNOPTIC SYSTEM. THIS WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG AND S OF RETREATING WARM/WEDGE
FRONT. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK...THE POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO TOWARD 18/12Z.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION IN TANDEM WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...CONTRIBUTING TO AN
INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME HAIL
AND PERHAPS LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. HOWEVER...A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRECLUDED BY MARGINAL MOISTURE CONTENT AND THE PRESENCE OF AN
INVERSION/WARM LAYER AROUND 700 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF
AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION.

...WRN PARTS OF TX/OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
AUGMENTED BY A VORTICITY MAXIMUM PROGRESSING SEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY
PROMOTE A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF SOME SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BECOME ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE...LIMITING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND
PRECLUDING THE NECESSITY FOR LOW WIND AND HAIL PROBABILITIES.

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KHUN [171957]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHUN 171957
LSRHUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
257 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 ENE FLORENCE 34.80N 87.66W
09/17/2012 LAUDERDALE AL EMERGENCY MNGR

COMMERCE STREET CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.


&&

$$

KWEBER

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KAPX [171920]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 171920
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
320 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0207 PM HAIL 4 SW FIFE LAKE 44.53N 85.41W
09/17/2012 M0.70 INCH GRAND TRAVERSE MI PUBLIC

DIME SIZED HAIL REPORTED JUST WEST OF WALTON AT M 113
AND US 131.


&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1200791

$$

NTS

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KAPX [171915]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 171915
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
315 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0152 PM HAIL 4 NE MILLERSBURG 45.37N 84.00W
09/17/2012 E1.75 INCH PRESQUE ISLE MI PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL ON M 68 BETWEEN
ROGERS CITY AND MILLERSBURG. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.


&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1200790

$$

NTS

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KAPX [171853]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 171853
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
253 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0252 PM HAIL ALBA 44.98N 84.97W
09/17/2012 M0.25 INCH ANTRIM MI SPOTTER

JUST ENDED. LASTED LESS THAN 5 MIN.


&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1200789

$$

HALBLAUB

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KAPX [171846]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 171846
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
246 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0203 PM HAIL ROGERS CITY 45.42N 83.83W
09/17/2012 E0.70 INCH PRESQUE ISLE MI DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.


&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1200788

$$

HALBLAUB

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KAPX [171844]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected Typo

NWUS53 KAPX 171844 CCA
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED TYPO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
244 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0203 PM HAIL ROGERS CITY 45.42N 83.83W
09/17/2012 E0.25 INCH PRESQUE ISLE MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

MULTIPLE REPORTS RECEIVED FROM VARIOUS OFFICERS AND AN
AMBULANCE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.


&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1200787

$$

HALBLAUB

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KAPX [171844]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected Typo

NWUS53 KAPX 171844 CCA
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED TYPO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
244 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0203 PM HAIL ROGERS CITY 45.42N 83.83W
09/17/2012 E0.25 INCH PRESQUE ISLE MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

MULTIPLE REPORTS RECEIVED FROM VARIOUS OFFICERS AND AN
ABMULANCE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.


&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1200787

$$

HALBLAUB

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KAPX [171834]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 171834
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
234 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0203 PM HAIL ROGERS CITY 45.42N 83.83W
09/17/2012 E0.25 INCH PRESQUE ISLE MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

MULTIPLE REPORTS RECEIVED FROM VARIOUS OFFICERS AND AN
AMULANCE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.


&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1200787

$$

HALBLAUB

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KAPX [171834]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 171834
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
233 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0145 PM HAIL ROGERS CITY 45.42N 83.83W
09/17/2012 E0.25 INCH PRESQUE ISLE MI SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1200786

$$

NTS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1950

ACUS11 KWNS 171831
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171830
MIZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-171930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1950
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI...SERN WI...NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 171830Z - 171930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A HAIL THREAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER TSTMS FORMING
ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER MI. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
FARTHER SE THIS AFTERNOON INTO PARTS OF SERN WI AND NRN IL. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...BUT
A WW IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN LOWER MI
EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS LM TOWARDS THE IA/IL BORDER...ATTENDANT TO A
WEAK SFC LOW POSITIONED W OF APN. WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH MODEST MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...HAVE
SUSTAINED TSTMS OVER NRN LOWER MI...OCCASIONALLY DISPLAYING THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE
BEGUN TO DEVELOP MORE RECENTLY FARTHER S ACROSS ERN IA/SRN WI. THE
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EWD...WHERE STRONGER HEATING HAS OCCURRED WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE 70S F. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE HAVE YIELDED ESTIMATED MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG.
STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL FLOW...AND RESULTANT EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40
KTS...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE CORES...DESPITE THE PRESENCE
OF WEAK INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE MAGNITUDE/AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT WW CONSIDERATION.

..ROGERS/MEAD.. 09/17/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...LOT...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON 45348424 45478393 45458357 44998322 44528338 44048445
43218562 42528673 41978796 41488909 41518988 41969006
42318990 43158827 43618705 44498550 45348424

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KAPX [171825]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 171825
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
225 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 PM HAIL 1 S ROGERS CITY 45.40N 83.81W
09/17/2012 M0.25 INCH PRESQUE ISLE MI SPOTTER

FELL BETWEEN 145 PM AND ENDED AROUND 210 PM.


&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1200785

$$

SCHWARTZ

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KLCH [171814]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 171814
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
114 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 39 SSW BURNS POINT 29.10N 91.87W
09/17/2012 E37 MPH GMZ455 LA PUBLIC

REPORT FROM PLATFORM IN SOUTH MARSH ISLAND BLOCK 268.


&&

$$

MOGGED

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1949

ACUS11 KWNS 171759
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171758
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-171930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1949
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE LA...SRN MS AND SW AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 171758Z - 171930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. ROTATING CELLS COULD POSE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES. WW
ISSUANCE MAY BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL BANDS OF STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING FROM FAR
SE LA EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE VICINITY OF MOBILE AL. THIS ACTIVITY
IS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WELL-DEFINED
VORTICITY MAXIMA EVIDENT ON WATERY VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE MS RIVER
DELTA. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX AND SFC HEATING WILL
HELP THE STORM ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE
WSR-88D VWPS AT MOBILE AND NEW ORLEANS SHOW INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WITH TIME WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 25 KT AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
30 TO 40 KT. THIS AMOUNT OF SHEAR SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING
CELLS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL COULD ALSO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IF
INSTABILITY CAN INCREASE AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY IN SRN MS AND SRN AL.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 09/17/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 32088816 32098903 31688956 30828967 29908975 29238979
29038908 29528852 30358755 31348725 32088816

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KLSX [171743]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 171743
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1243 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1238 PM HEAVY RAIN BARTELSO 38.54N 89.47W
09/17/2012 M3.00 INCH CLINTON IL TRAINED SPOTTER

FROM 630 AM THROUGH 1230 PM TODAY.


&&

$$

DYE

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 171732
SWODY2
SPC AC 171731

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE SERN
STATES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND NERN U.S....

...SYNOPSIS...

SYNOPTIC UPPER PATTERN IS IN THE PROCESS OF AMPLIFICATION...AND THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
FROM SCNTRL CANADA INTO THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY WILL AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL SUBSEQUENTLY
EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE NERN STATES AND SERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT. AS
NRN BRANCH TROUGH AMPLIFIES...THE SRN STREAM UPPER LOW OVER TX /AS
WELL AS THE LEAD IMPULSE OVER LA/ WILL SHEAR NEWD AND DEAMPLIFY
WHILE ACCELERATING INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. PRIMARY SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
LIFT NWD INTO QUEBEC WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE
ERN STATES...REACHING THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NWD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...REACHING SRN
NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY EVENING.


...MID ATLANTIC THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE NERN STATES...

IN WAKE OF NWD ADVANCING WARM FRONT...RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70F DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT THROUGH WARM SECTOR ALONG
STRENGTHENING 50+ KT LLJ. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND
WITHIN PLUME OF DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY IN WRN
PORTION OF WARM SECTOR. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD POSE A THREAT OF
MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND FROM THE WRN CAROLINAS INTO WRN VA.
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SERVING AS A LIMITING FACTOR. THE
MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETER SPACE FOR SEVERE STORMS
IS EXPECTED EVOLVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ALONG STRENGTHENING
LLJ AND WHERE A FEW CLOUD BREAKS WILL PROMOTE AT LEAST MODEST
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WITH 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE POSSIBLE.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD THROUGH THE
DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. MIXED CONVECTIVE MODES ARE LIKELY
INCLUDING LINES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS. A FEW
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO OCCUR IF SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING OCCURS. DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE MODERATE RISK IF IT BEGINS TO APPEAR THAT MORE INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

...SERN STATES...

OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WHERE DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT
FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR WILL BE MUCH WEAKER
THAN FARTHER NE AS THE LLJ LIFTS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AREA.
DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD BREAKS AND DIABATIC WARMING...SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY AND POSE A THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..DIAL.. 09/17/2012

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171621
SWODY1
SPC AC 171619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF COAST STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...

CONSIDERABLE AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL OCCUR
DURING THE D1 PERIOD OWING TO THE FORMATION OF A FULL-LATITUDE
TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WITHIN THIS
BROADER-SCALE PATTERN...A POLAR BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL JETSTREAK WILL PROGRESS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO
MIDWEST. MEANWHILE...A SUBTROPICAL BRANCH VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER
SERN TX WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR BRANCH
UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE U.P. OF MI SWWD
THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS SEWD.
BY 18/12Z...THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STRETCH FROM A DEVELOPING
CYCLONE OVER SWRN ONTARIO/UPPER OH VALLEY THROUGH THE MID SOUTH INTO
CNTRL TX. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
BRANCH VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL DEVELOP FROM S-CNTRL LA TO W-CNTRL AL
BY THE END OF THE D1 PERIOD WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD THE
TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS.

...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

THE 12Z NEW ORLEANS SOUNDING APPEARS REPRESENTATIVE OF WARM SECTOR
ENVIRONMENT...FEATURING PW VALUES AOA TWO INCHES AND MLCAPE VALUES
OF 1500-2000 J/KG...DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. THE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING A MORE IMMEDIATE
SEVERE THREAT IS A RATHER WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT PER CURRENT VAD
DATA. LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN
SUGGESTING AN INCREASE IN THE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH PHASING OF THE SRN STREAM VORTICITY
MAXIMUM WITH THE MORE INTENSE POLAR BRANCH SYSTEM. AS SUCH...EXPECT
A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SUPERCELL POTENTIAL MAINLY DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...PIEDMONT OF THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...

FORCING FOR ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE PHASING OF MULTI-STREAM TROUGHS AND OVERALL
DEEPENING OF SYNOPTIC SYSTEM. THIS WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG AND S OF RETREATING WARM/WEDGE
FRONT. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK...THE POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO TOWARD 18/12Z.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION IN TANDEM WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...CONTRIBUTING TO AN
INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME HAIL
AND PERHAPS LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. HOWEVER...A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRECLUDED BY MARGINAL MOISTURE CONTENT AND THE PRESENCE OF AN
INVERSION/WARM LAYER AROUND 700 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF
AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION.

...WRN PARTS OF TX/OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
AUGMENTED BY A VORTICITY MAXIMUM PROGRESSING SEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY
PROMOTE A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF SOME SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BECOME ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE...LIMITING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND
PRECLUDING THE NECESSITY FOR LOW WIND AND HAIL PROBABILITIES.

..MEAD/ROGERS.. 09/17/2012

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KCAE [171411]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 171411
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1008 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0935 AM FLASH FLOOD LANCASTER 34.73N 80.78W
09/17/2012 LANCASTER SC FIRE DEPARTMENT

HANNAHS CREEK OUT OF ITS BANKS FLOODING
INDEPENDENCE PARK AND CONSTITUTIONAL PARK.

&&

$$

HC

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KCAE [171402]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 171402
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
953 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 AM FLASH FLOOD 6 ENE ELGIN 34.71N 80.63W
09/17/2012 LANCASTER SC EMERGENCY MANAGER

TAXAHAW RD REMAINS FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE.

&&

$$

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KCAE [171353]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 171353
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
949 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 NNE ELGIN 34.74N 80.68W
09/17/2012 LANCASTER SC EMERGENCY MANAGER

HERSHEL PLYLER RD IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLOOD
WATER OVER THE ROADWAY.

&&

$$

HC

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KCAE [171253]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 171253
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
845 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 ENE LANCASTER 34.74N 80.70W
09/17/2012 LANCASTER SC EMERGENCY MANAGER

NUMEROUS ROADS FLOODED IN CENTRAL LANCASTER
COUNTY.

&&

$$

WR

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171239
SWODY1
SPC AC 171237

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 AM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST REGION...

...GULF COAST REGION...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW TWO UPPER TROUGHS AFFECTING THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS OVER EAST
TX...AND WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW /CURRENTLY OFF THE MIDDLE TX COAST/ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LA
DELTA AND INTO SOUTHERN MS/AL OVERNIGHT. STRENGTHENING LOW/MID
LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS LOW WILL RESULT IN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING
CONVECTION. DESPITE NEAR MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES...SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL YIELD MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY OCCUR AFTER DARK. LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA.

...UPPER MIDWEST...
THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND IS
FORECAST TO ROTATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
TOMORROW MORNING. A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS PARTS OF IA/WI/MO/IL/IND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RELATIVELY STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COUPLED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND SUBSTANTIAL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS LIKELY
TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGEST OF
THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

..HART/LEITMAN.. 09/17/2012

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KCAE [171239]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 171239
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
837 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0815 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 ENE LANCASTER 34.74N 80.70W
09/17/2012 LANCASTER SC BROADCAST MEDIA

ROADWAY FLOODED AT THE 2200 BLOCK OF HOUGH
RD.

&&

$$

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KCAE [171229]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 171229
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
827 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 E LANCASTER 34.73N 80.72W
09/17/2012 LANCASTER SC EMERGENCY MANAGER

LANCASTER COUNTY EM REPORTED A CAR WASHED
OFF OF CATOE ROAD.

&&

$$

WR

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KCAE [171207]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 171207
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
805 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 AM FLASH FLOOD 6 NE ELGIN 34.74N 80.65W
09/17/2012 LANCASTER SC EMERGENCY MANAGER

LANCASTER COUNTY EM REPORTED WATER RESCUE ON
LANGLEY ROAD.

&&

$$

WR

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KCAE [171131]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 171131
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
729 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0715 AM FLASH FLOOD 6 ENE ELGIN 34.72N 80.63W
09/17/2012 LANCASTER SC BROADCAST MEDIA

CAR TRAPPED IN FLOOD WATERS ON CIMMERON RD.
OFF ROCKY RIVER RD. DIXIE SCHOOL RD ALSO
IMPASSABLE DUE TO CREEK OUT OF ITS BANKS.

&&

$$

HC

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KCAE [171124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 171124
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
722 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0647 AM FLASH FLOOD 6 ENE ELGIN 34.72N 80.62W
09/17/2012 LANCASTER SC DEPT OF HIGHWAY

SC HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTING ROAD CLOSURE AT
TAXAHAW RD. AND ROCKY RIVER RD.

&&

$$

HC

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KCAE [171025]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 171025
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
624 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0623 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 NNE ELGIN 34.74N 80.68W
09/17/2012 LANCASTER SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

HERSHEL PLYLER ROAD FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE.

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KCAE [171023]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 171023
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
622 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0621 AM FLASH FLOOD 11 ENE ELGIN 34.76N 80.55W
09/17/2012 LANCASTER SC PUBLIC

TRADESVILLE ROAD FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE.

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KCAE [171022]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 171022
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
621 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0621 AM FLASH FLOOD 9 NE ELGIN 34.76N 80.59W
09/17/2012 LANCASTER SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

CARNES WILSON ROAD FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE.

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KCAE [171016]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 171016
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
615 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 AM FLASH FLOOD 13 ENE ELGIN 34.75N 80.51W
09/17/2012 LANCASTER SC PUBLIC

WATER COVERING A BRIDGE ALONG SC HIGHWAY 9
NEAR THE LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD COUNTY
LINE.

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KCAE [171015]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 171015
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
615 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 AM FLASH FLOOD 7 NE ELGIN 34.74N 80.63W
09/17/2012 LANCASTER SC PUBLIC

AT LEAST ONE FOOT OF WATER COVERING PORTIONS
OF HIGHWAY 522.

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KCAE [170955]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 170955
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
555 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 NNE LANCASTER 34.73N 80.78W
09/17/2012 LANCASTER SC PUBLIC

LANCASTER SPOTTER REPORTED FLASH FLOODING ALL THE WAY
FROM LANCASTER TO NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE ON SC HIGHWAY
200. THE WORST FLOODING WAS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF SC
HIGHWAY 200 AND US HIGHWAY 521.


&&

$$

TTH

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 170727
SWODY3
SPC AC 170726

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...MEAN TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM
HUDSON BAY TO CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THROUGHOUT PERIOD.
HOWEVER...GEOMETRY OF HEIGHT PATTERN WILL SHIFT AS NRN-STREAM
SHORTWAVE DISCUSSED IN DAY-2 OUTLOOK DEPARTS NEWD ALONG ST. LAWRENCE
RIVER AND SERN QUE. MEANWHILE...WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SEWD FROM NRN PLAINS TO MS/AL...WHILE ANOTHER SMALL PERTURBATION
CROSSES PORTIONS NRN MN...UPPER MI AND LS. SFC COLD FRONT IS FCST
FROM MAINE TO OUTER BANKS...COASTAL GA AREA AND NERN/CENTRAL GULF.
FRONT SHOULD DECELERATE CONSIDERABLY AND WEAKEN ACROSS NRN FL
PENINSULA DURING PERIOD...WHERE WEAKENING OF CONVERGENCE AND
SHEAR...ALONG WITH SMALL LAPSE RATES ALOFT...INDICATE MINIMAL SVR
THREAT. ANOTHER SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEWD OUT OF DAKOTAS
EARLY IN PERIOD...REACHING WRN WI...IA...SERN NEB AND SWRN KS BY
20/00Z.

...CENTRAL/ERN MAINE...EARLY PERIOD...
NARROW BAND OF NEAR-FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY SWEEP EWD ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING MORNING...AS EXTENSION OF DAY-1 REGIME...AND STG GUSTS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ATTM...LACK OF INSTABILITY AND SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON FRONTAL TIMING PRECLUDE UNCONDITIONAL SVR
PROBABILITIES. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LIFTED PARCELS WILL ORIGINATE
ABOVE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STABLE LAYER FOR ALL BUT SLOWEST FROPA
SCENARIOS. GIVEN STRENGTH OF PREFRONTAL WIND FIELDS...HOWEVER...AT
LEAST MRGL SVR PROBABILITIES MAY BE INTRODUCED IN FUTURE
OUTLOOKS...GIVEN MORE CONFIDENCE THAT NEUTRALLY TO WEAKLY UNSTABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING-WIND THREAT IN FIRST
FEW HOURS OF PERIOD.

...TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK...
NARROW PLUME OF MRGL MOISTURE -- WITH SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY 50S F
-- SHOULD ADVECT NEWD FROM SW TX ACROSS THIS REGION DURING
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE LINE...IN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY STG DEEP-LAYER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND WELL-MIXED
SUBCLOUD LAYER. LACK OF RICHER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
BUOYANCY...HOWEVER...WITH MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOWING LESS THAN 750
J/KG MLCAPE MOST AREAS. SVR WIND/HAIL RISK...IF ANY...WOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED AND APPEARS TOO MEAGER FOR 5% UNCONDITIONAL LINE ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 09/17/2012

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