DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180059
SWODY1
SPC AC 180057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN VA/WRN ND SWWD TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

...SERN U.S. INTO THE CAROLINAS/SRN VA...
A BROAD ZONE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY OF E TX/WRN LA EWD AND NEWD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...AND AS FAR NEWD AS VA/WV. THIS CONVECTION IS ONGOING AS
A RESULT OF QG ASCENT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW CROSSING THE WRN GULF
COAST REGION...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW ANALYZED INVOF THE
SERN LA/SRN MS BORDER.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD/ENEWD OVERNIGHT...INCREASING FLOW
ALOFT -- PARTICULARLY IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER -- WILL ENHANCE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THUS...AS THE ONGOING AREA OF STORMS
CONTINUES/SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST -- AND A POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE INCREASE OCCURS FARTHER W ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM -- THREAT
FOR ISOLATED GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL
CONTINUE. THE ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY SPREAD AS FAR NEWD AS
NWRN NC/SWRN VA OVERNIGHT...AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR SPREADS NWD WITH
TIME BENEATH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

..GOSS.. 09/18/2012

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