MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2038

ACUS11 KWNS 080356
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080355
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-080800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2038
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0955 PM CST SUN NOV 07 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NH AND WRN MAINE

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 080355Z - 080800Z

WINTRY MIX WILL SPREAD WWD THROUGH PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WRN MAINE. FROM SWRN MAINE
INTO NRN NH...PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS SNOW OR A MIX OF SLEET
AND SNOW AFTER 05Z BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN AFTER 09Z.
RAINFALL RATES GENERALLY BETWEEN .05 AND .1 INCH PER HOUR EXPECTED.

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE A STRONG VORT MAX PIVOTING NWWD
TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING IN RESPONSE TO
AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE VORT MAX. THE ISALLOBARIC
RESPONSE IS RESULTING IN NLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION NEAR THE
SURFACE. HOWEVER...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WITHIN THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE THAT WILL SHIFT WWD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND AS ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHIFTS WWD. WET BULB
TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE A WINTRY MIX SHOULD TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN OVER WRN MAINE AS WARM ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER INCREASES. FARTHER WEST ACROSS NH PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS A
MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET AFTER 05Z BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING
RAIN AFTER 09Z. WET BULB TEMPERATURES FROM 30-32 F ARE SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN EVENT. FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE MORE LIKELY AND PERSISTENT WITHIN THE VALLEYS WHERE COLD AIR
COULD REMAIN TRAPPED.

..DIAL.. 11/08/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

LAT...LON 47016869 45926925 44737031 43877116 43727164 44067191
44647154 45887028 47056954 47016869

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 080039
SWODY1
SPC AC 080038

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 PM CST SUN NOV 07 2010

VALID 080100Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ESEWD ONTO THE COAST OF CA LATE
TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NRN CA AND NW NV
NEAR THE AXIS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHERE STRONG LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT IS PRESENT AND TEMPS ALOFT ARE COLD. OTHER ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF WA AND ORE
AS A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVES ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 11/08/2010

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KPQR [072341]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPQR 072341
LSRPQR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
341 PM PST SUN NOV 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0841 PM HEAVY RAIN N OTTER ROCK 44.74N 124.06W
11/06/2010 M1.07 INCH LINCOLN OR TRAINED SPOTTER

1.07 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS

0730 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SE ESTACADA 45.27N 122.30W
11/07/2010 M1.56 INCH CLACKAMAS OR UTILITY COMPANY

1.56 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS, 0.18
INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED IN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS.

0745 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 ESE PORTLAND AIRPORT 45.58N 122.58W
11/07/2010 M1.15 INCH MULTNOMAH OR PUBLIC

1.15 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 ENE SKAMOKAWA 46.30N 123.37W
11/07/2010 M1.20 INCH WAHKIAKUM WA TRAINED SPOTTER

1.20 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED OVER THE LAST 15 HOURS

0825 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 ESE LACOMB 44.57N 122.68W
11/07/2010 M1.42 INCH LINN OR TRAINED SPOTTER

1.42 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED IN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS

1223 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 ESE SCAPPOOSE 45.75N 122.87W
11/07/2010 M0.54 INCH COLUMBIA OR TRAINED SPOTTER

0.54 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED IN THE LAST 30 MINUTES

&&

$$

LRAMIREZ

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KMFR [072335]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 072335
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
335 PM PST SUN NOV 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0335 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 SE CAVE JUNCTION 42.11N 123.58W
11/07/2010 M1.41 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOURS ENDING 3PM

&&

$$

OBRIEN

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KMFR [072307]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 072307
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
307 PM PST SUN NOV 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SE HARBOR 42.00N 124.20W
11/07/2010 M3.05 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

ACCUMULATIVE TOTAL THROUGH 9AM

&&

$$

BUNKER

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KMFR [072024]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 072024
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1224 PM PST SUN NOV 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1223 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NE GOLD BEACH 42.44N 124.39W
11/07/2010 M2.80 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR REPORT

&&

$$

OBRIEN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071946
SWODY1
SPC AC 071945

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CST SUN NOV 07 2010

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...WESTERN CONUS...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PRIOR OUTLOOK/ASSOCIATED REASONING. REMOVED CENTRAL
ROCKIES TSTM PORTION AS COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER SPARSE /SUB 10
PERCENT/ THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

..GUYER.. 11/07/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0955 AM CST SUN NOV 07 2010/

...WRN CONUS...
AXIS OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE W COAST WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND THROUGH EARLY MON. AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN...SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
WA/ORE/NRN CA COAST INTO THE NWRN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ISOLATED TSTMS APPEAR MOST PROBABLE ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON IN A ZONE OF STRONGER FORCED ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN BASAL PORTION OF THE
TROUGH.

ELSEWHERE...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CNTRL
ROCKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. SCANT BUOYANCY WILL HAMPER OVERALL TSTM COVERAGE.

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KEKA [071830]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KEKA 071830
LSREKA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1030 AM PST SUN NOV 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0824 AM HEAVY RAIN TRINITY CENTER 41.00N 122.70W
11/07/2010 M0.00 INCH TRINITY CA PUBLIC

T05...ACTUAL SPOTTER IN TRINITY CENTER, TRINITY COUNTY.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN LAST 24 HOUR. TOTAL 1.25
INCHESFELL FROM 0055 AM AT 2800 FEET.

0830 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 W ETTERSBURG 40.12N 124.07W
11/07/2010 M0.00 INCH HUMBOLDT CA TRAINED SPOTTER

NEAR HONEYDEW...2.42 INCHES IN 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY
FOGGY.TOTAL FOR SEASON 28.03 INCHES.

1010 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SW CRESCENT CITY 41.74N 124.21W
11/07/2010 E0.00 INCH PZZ450 CA TRAINED SPOTTER

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH 2.52 INCHES IN 24 HOURS.

&&

$$

ASHFORD

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KMFR [071813]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 071813
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1013 AM PST SUN NOV 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 ESE COOS BAY 43.33N 124.12W
11/07/2010 M1.22 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BUNKER

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 071729
SWODY2
SPC AC 071728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CST SUN NOV 07 2010

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
COOL/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE TSTMS IN MOST CONUS LOCALES ON
MONDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY AMPLIFYING FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC TO THE WEST COAST...IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT GENERALLY EASTWARD
OVER THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST DESERTS TO THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY
ON MONDAY. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH...ISOLATED TSTMS
MAY BE FOUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN/SOUTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES.

...EASTERN GREAT BASIN/SOUTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...
ATTENDANT TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH ON
MONDAY...FORCING FOR ASCENT AND COOLING ALOFT /-20 TO -28 C AT 500
MB/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION/CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. WITH MODEST NEAR-SURFACE
HEATING...FORECAST SOUNDINGS REFLECT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
SUFFICIENTLY FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED/EMBEDDED BOUTS OF
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY IN TANDEM WITH THE STRONGEST LARGE
SCALE/OROGRAPHIC FORCING.

..GUYER.. 11/07/2010

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KMFR [071729]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 071729
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
929 AM PST SUN NOV 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSW ETNA 41.44N 122.90W
11/07/2010 M0.94 INCH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR ACCUMULATION ENDING AT 8AM

&&

$$

BUNKER

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KMFR [071656]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 071656
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
856 AM PST SUN NOV 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0855 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 N CAVE JUNCTION 42.22N 123.64W
11/07/2010 M1.62 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

ENDING AT 8AM

&&

$$

OBRIEN

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KMFR [071651]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 071651
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
851 AM PST SUN NOV 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0848 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSW OBRIEN 42.06N 123.71W
11/07/2010 M1.76 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HRS ENDING 8 AM.

0848 AM HEAVY RAIN W DUNSMUIR 41.23N 122.27W
11/07/2010 M1.21 INCH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HRS ENDING 8 AM.

&&

$$

STAVISH

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KMFR [071626]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 071626
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
826 AM PST SUN NOV 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0825 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 NNW GRANTS PASS 42.50N 123.34W
11/07/2010 M1.40 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HOURS ENDING 7AM

&&

$$

OBRIEN

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KMFR [071601]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 071601
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
801 AM PST SUN NOV 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SE CAVE JUNCTION 42.15N 123.62W
11/07/2010 M1.59 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR ENDING 6AM

&&

$$

OBRIEN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071555
SWODY1
SPC AC 071555

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0955 AM CST SUN NOV 07 2010

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...WRN CONUS...
AXIS OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE W COAST WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND THROUGH EARLY MON. AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN...SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
WA/ORE/NRN CA COAST INTO THE NWRN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ISOLATED TSTMS APPEAR MOST PROBABLE ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON IN A ZONE OF STRONGER FORCED ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN BASAL PORTION OF THE
TROUGH.

ELSEWHERE...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CNTRL
ROCKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. SCANT BUOYANCY WILL HAMPER OVERALL TSTM COVERAGE.

..GRAMS/HALES.. 11/07/2010

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KMFR [071553]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 071553
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
753 AM PST SUN NOV 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW BROOKINGS 42.12N 124.32W
11/07/2010 M3.55 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOURS ENDING AT 730 AM.

&&

$$

GLASER

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KMFR [071515]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 071515
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
715 AM PST SUN NOV 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN NE BROOKINGS 42.06N 124.29W
11/07/2010 M2.50 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

7 PM TO 7 AM.

&&

$$

GLASER

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KMFR [071454]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 071454
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
654 AM PST SUN NOV 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSW BANDON 43.10N 124.43W
11/07/2010 M1.08 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

5 PM TO 6 AM.

&&

$$

GLASER

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KMFR [071304]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 071304
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
504 AM PST SUN NOV 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0504 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 NE GOLD BEACH 42.45N 124.37W
11/07/2010 M2.57 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

5 AM TO 5 AM.

&&

$$

GLASER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071242
SWODY1
SPC AC 071241

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 AM CST SUN NOV 07 2010

VALID 071300Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD E PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE E INTO THE WRN U.S. THIS PERIOD
AS LEAD IMPULSE NOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS CONTINUES NE INTO WRN
MN/IA. WITHIN THE E PACIFIC TROUGH...DISTURBANCE NOW OFF THE NRN CA
CST EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS UPSTREAM IMPULSE/JET STREAK NOW NEAR 135W
AMPLIFIES SE TOWARD SRN CA.

...WRN U.S...
AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CNTRL RCKYS TODAY AS
SFC TEMPERATURES WARM BENEATH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
ELSEWHERE...A FEW MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS MAY FORM IN COOL CYCLONIC
FLOW ALONG THE WA/ORE/NRN CA CST. OTHER TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY MON OVER INTERIOR PARTS OF CA AND OVER
PARTS OF NV...IN ZONE OF STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND ASCENT
AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 11/07/2010

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KMFR [070956]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 070956
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
156 AM PST SUN NOV 07 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0156 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSW OBRIEN 42.06N 123.71W
11/07/2010 M1.10 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

815 PM TO 130 AM.

&&

$$

GLASER

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 070841
SWOD48
SPC AC 070841

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 AM CST SUN NOV 07 2010

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE RISK AREA...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A GENERAL TREND TOWARD
THE EVOLUTION OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE COMING WORK WEEK...WITH BROAD
TROUGHING DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S...AS THE
ATLANTIC BLOCKING PATTERN GRADUALLY WEAKENS. HOWEVER... VARIABILITY
REMAINS QUITE LARGE AMONG THE MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES CONCERNING
THIS PROCESS...PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
DEVELOPMENTS. WHILE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS STILL APPEARS A POSSIBILITY
FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND...PROBABILITIES FOR THIS OCCURRING APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOWER
END. FURTHER COMPLICATING MATTERS CONCERNING THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED LIMITED/ SLOW BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..KERR.. 11/07/2010

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 070649
SWODY3
SPC AC 070648

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 AM CDT SUN NOV 07 2010

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT...WHILE SOME WEAKENING COULD OCCUR... THE
BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST...WITH A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE LINGERING OFF THE NORTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. A NEW HIGH CENTER MAY BEGIN TO BUILD OVER PARTS OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES...WHILE THE
UPSTREAM LARGE-SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN U.S...INCLUDING THE EVOLUTION OF A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE PLAINS. WITHIN THIS
REGIME...GUIDANCE APPEARS SIMILAR WITH A STRONG IMPULSE DIGGING
INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BUT VARIABILITY REMAINS LARGE CONCERNING SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS WITHIN LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING DEVELOPING EASTWARD INTO
THE PLAINS. PROSPECTS FOR THE EVOLUTION OF ONE CONSOLIDATED STRONG
SURFACE CYCLONE WITHIN THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS APPEAR
MORE REMOTE...AND IT SEEMS FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT A SUBSTANTIVE
MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL NOT OCCUR. AS A
RESULT...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PROBABLY WILL REMAIN
NEGLIGIBLE...WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOW...IN GENERAL...ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NATION.

..KERR.. 11/07/2010

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KMFR [070609]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 070609
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1109 PM PDT SAT NOV 06 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1107 PM HEAVY RAIN N LANGLOIS 42.93N 124.45W
11/06/2010 M2.11 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

6 HR RAINFALL ENDING AT 11PM PDT. HEAVIEST RAIN RATE WAS
BETWEEN 9-10 PM PDT WITH 0.54 INCHES.

&&

$$

BUNNAG

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 070550
SWODY1
SPC AC 070549

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT SUN NOV 07 2010

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST TODAY AS A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SFC
TEMPS WARM BENEATH THE LEAD TROUGH WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
FORECAST TO BE STEEP. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FURTHER
TO THE WEST JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHERE
LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL
BE COLD. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ALONG
THE COASTS OF ORE...WA AND IN NRN CA/NW NV. NONE OF THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS TODAY OR TONIGHT.

..BROYLES/GARNER.. 11/07/2010

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KMFR [070513]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 070513
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1012 PM PDT SAT NOV 06 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1012 PM HEAVY RAIN SSW PORT ORFORD 42.75N 124.50W
11/06/2010 M1.60 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

6 HR RAINFALL FROM 4PM PDT - 10 PM PDT

&&

$$

BUNNAG

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 070444
SWODY2
SPC AC 070443

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CDT SAT NOV 06 2010

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFICATION WITHIN A STRONG BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE MID
LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC IS UNDERWAY...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INLAND ACROSS
THE PACIFIC COAST...THROUGH MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES BY
EARLY TUESDAY. SHORTER WAVELENGTH IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE REMAIN A SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY...BUT IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT
ONE VIGOROUS PERTURBATION MAY DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
AND FOUR CORNERS REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SAME TIME...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN...WITH A LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE NOW
PROGGED TO LINGER NEAR OR JUST EAST OF NORTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
AREAS. THE PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO HINDER OR SLOW
SUBSTANTIVE GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION AND INLAND
RETURN FLOW. AS A RESULT...GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NATION...WITH LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES...
LOW-LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH...WHEN COUPLED WITH
STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACH OF A -24 TO -30C
500 MB COLD CORE...TO CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR
AT LEAST WEAK TO MODEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO EXTEND THROUGH THE MIXED PHASE LAYER
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHARGE SEPARATION AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS HIGHEST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGEST MID-LEVEL SYNOPTIC AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

..KERR.. 11/07/2010

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