SWOD48
SPC AC 070841
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 AM CST SUN NOV 07 2010
VALID 101200Z - 151200Z
...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE RISK AREA...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A GENERAL TREND TOWARD
THE EVOLUTION OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE COMING WORK WEEK...WITH BROAD
TROUGHING DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S...AS THE
ATLANTIC BLOCKING PATTERN GRADUALLY WEAKENS. HOWEVER... VARIABILITY
REMAINS QUITE LARGE AMONG THE MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES CONCERNING
THIS PROCESS...PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
DEVELOPMENTS. WHILE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS STILL APPEARS A POSSIBILITY
FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND...PROBABILITIES FOR THIS OCCURRING APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOWER
END. FURTHER COMPLICATING MATTERS CONCERNING THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED LIMITED/ SLOW BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..KERR.. 11/07/2010
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