SWODY3
SPC AC 070648
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 AM CDT SUN NOV 07 2010
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT...WHILE SOME WEAKENING COULD OCCUR... THE
BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST...WITH A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE LINGERING OFF THE NORTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. A NEW HIGH CENTER MAY BEGIN TO BUILD OVER PARTS OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES...WHILE THE
UPSTREAM LARGE-SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN U.S...INCLUDING THE EVOLUTION OF A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE PLAINS. WITHIN THIS
REGIME...GUIDANCE APPEARS SIMILAR WITH A STRONG IMPULSE DIGGING
INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BUT VARIABILITY REMAINS LARGE CONCERNING SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS WITHIN LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING DEVELOPING EASTWARD INTO
THE PLAINS. PROSPECTS FOR THE EVOLUTION OF ONE CONSOLIDATED STRONG
SURFACE CYCLONE WITHIN THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS APPEAR
MORE REMOTE...AND IT SEEMS FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT A SUBSTANTIVE
MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL NOT OCCUR. AS A
RESULT...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PROBABLY WILL REMAIN
NEGLIGIBLE...WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOW...IN GENERAL...ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NATION.
..KERR.. 11/07/2010
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