DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 190038
SWODY1
SPC AC 190036

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 PM CST SUN DEC 18 2011

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SW AZ WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ALONG THE
US-MEXICO BORDER TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A WELL-DEVELOPED 45
TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS MOISTURE RETURNS NWD INTO
CNTRL AND WEST TX. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE BENEATH
THE CORE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHERE COLD TEMPS ALOFT EXIST ALONG
WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
MOVES OUT INTO WEST AND NORTHWEST TX WHERE LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST AS FAR NEWD AS SW OK
TOWARD 12Z. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 12/19/2011

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KSGX [182206]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS56 KSGX 182206
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
206 PM PST SUN DEC 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM HEAVY SNOW 1 SE BIG BEAR CITY 34.26N 116.83W
12/18/2011 M16.0 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

12 TO 16 INCHES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AROUND 7500 FEET AT
BEAR MOUNTAIN RESORT. 6 TO 8 INCHES SINCE 700 AM.
CURRENTLY SNOWING AT 1 INCH PLUS PER HOUR.

&&

$$

JMOKER

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KSGX [182152]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 182152
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
152 PM PST SUN DEC 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM HEAVY SNOW 1 SE BIG BEAR CITY 34.26N 116.83W
12/18/2011 M13.0 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

13 INCHES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AROUND 7500 FEET. 7 INCHES
SINCE 700 AM. CURRENTLY SNOWING AT 1 INCH PLUS PER HOUR.

&&

$$

JMOKER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 182000
SWODY1
SPC AC 181958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CST SUN DEC 18 2011

VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
FEW CHANGES TO PRIOR DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...SEE DISCUSSION
BELOW.

..GUYER.. 12/18/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0952 AM CST SUN DEC 18 2011/

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LOW OVER NRN BAJA WILL ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS NWRN MEXICO AND
SRN PARTS OF AZ/NM IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM
DIGGING SEWD THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
INTO GREAT BASIN. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WHILE A SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS OVER ERN NM INTO WRN TX.

...LOWER CO VALLEY INTO WRN TX/SWRN OK...

THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TSTMS THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE CORRIDOR OF
DCVA/HEIGHT FALLS PRECEDING UPPER LOW. THOUGH THE AMBIENT AIR MASS
IS NOT OVERLY MOIST /PER 12Z SOUNDINGS AND GPS PW DATA/...THE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL COINCIDE WITH THE WRN EDGE OF STEEPER
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL
DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER SYSTEM TODAY OVER WRN TX WHERE STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL ALIGN WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WRN EXTENT
OF A MODIFIED CP AIR MASS RETURNING FROM THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 181741
SWODY2
SPC AC 181740

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 AM CST SUN DEC 18 2011

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX TO
FAR WESTERN LA...

CORRECTED FOR OUTLOOK/NDFD LINES

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE THE PRIMARY WESTERLIES PERSIST OVER CANADA/CONUS NORTHERN
TIER...THE CLOSED/SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN BAJA/FAR NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO MODESTLY ACCELERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

...CENTRAL/EAST TX TO WESTERN LA...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW EMERGES FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO/DESERT
SOUTHWEST...A PERSISTENTLY STRONG 50-60 KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
WILL AID IN THE NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF A PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF
AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. EAST OF A GRADUALLY
DEEPENING SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SURFACE LOW AND A
DRYLINE/EASTWARD-MOVING PACIFIC FRONT...THIS WILL GENERALLY RESULT
IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX BY AFTERNOON...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S F
DEWPOINTS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TX/FAR SOUTHERN OK.

WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING EARLY MONDAY ACROSS WEST TX
INTO PARTS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TX AND OK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS MAY
LIMIT APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
NONETHELESS...CONTINUED THETA-E ADVECTION AND DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING
SHOULD YIELD A WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH A CORRIDOR OF
MLCAPE OF 500-800 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT. ALONG WITH
ARRIVAL OF MORE APPRECIABLE FORCING FOR ASCENT...THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN AN AFTERNOON/EVENING INCREASE OF SURFACE BASED TSTMS.

GIVEN THE DEGREE OF FORCING...EXPECTED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS TX...AND CURRENTLY FORECAST VEER-BACK-VEER LOW
TO MID-LEVEL WIND PROFILES...THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE IS EXPECTED
TO BE LINEAR ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTH TX.
NONETHELESS...ASIDE FROM DAMAGING WINDS...AT LEAST SOME TORNADO
THREAT WILL EXIST GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH. SUCH A
TORNADO THREAT COULD BE THE CASE WITH INITIAL WARM SECTOR STORMS
EAST OF THE PACIFIC FRONT...ANY QLCS-EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS THAT
EVOLVE...AND/OR WITH QLCS-SOUTH PERIPHERAL STORMS THAT SHOULD BE OF
A MORE DISCRETE NATURE /FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE A BIT MORE
SUBTLE/ WITHIN A HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TX. AT LEAST AN ISOLATED/MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST/EAST TX INTO WESTERN/SOUTHWEST LA.

...NORTHWEST TX/SOUTHWEST OK...
EVEN WITH A COOL/MARGINALLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
CAPABLE OF HAIL TO AROUND SEVERE LEVELS AND/OR PERHAPS A TORNADO
COULD DEVELOP EARLY/MID AFTERNOON MONDAY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
NEARLY STACKED SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS CYCLONE. SHOULD
MODEST/SUFFICIENT HEATING OCCUR...THIS COULD INITIALLY BE THE CASE
ACROSS NORTHWEST TX INCLUDING THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE VICINITIES. GIVEN THE LIMITED NATURE OF THE
MOISTURE/BUOYANCY AND EXPECTED COLD FRONTAL PROGRESSIONS...ANY
STRONG/SEVERE TSTM THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND OF A RELATIVELY
LIMITED DURATION.

..GUYER.. 12/18/2011

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 181731
SWODY2
SPC AC 181730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST SUN DEC 18 2011

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX TO
FAR WESTERN LA...

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE THE PRIMARY WESTERLIES PERSIST OVER CANADA/CONUS NORTHERN
TIER...THE CLOSED/SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN BAJA/FAR NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO MODESTLY ACCELERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

...CENTRAL/EAST TX TO WESTERN LA...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW EMERGES FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO/DESERT
SOUTHWEST...A PERSISTENTLY STRONG 50-60 KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
WILL AID IN THE NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF A PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF
AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. EAST OF A GRADUALLY
DEEPENING SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SURFACE LOW AND A
DRYLINE/EASTWARD-MOVING PACIFIC FRONT...THIS WILL GENERALLY RESULT
IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX BY AFTERNOON...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S F
DEWPOINTS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TX/FAR SOUTHERN OK.

WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING EARLY MONDAY ACROSS WEST TX
INTO PARTS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TX AND OK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS MAY
LIMIT APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
NONETHELESS...CONTINUED THETA-E ADVECTION AND DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING
SHOULD YIELD A WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH A CORRIDOR OF
MLCAPE OF 500-800 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT. ALONG WITH
ARRIVAL OF MORE APPRECIABLE FORCING FOR ASCENT...THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN AN AFTERNOON/EVENING INCREASE OF SURFACE BASED TSTMS.

GIVEN THE DEGREE OF FORCING...EXPECTED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS TX...AND CURRENTLY FORECAST VEER-BACK-VEER LOW
TO MID-LEVEL WIND PROFILES...THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE IS EXPECTED
TO BE LINEAR ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTH TX.
NONETHELESS...ASIDE FROM DAMAGING WINDS...AT LEAST SOME TORNADO
THREAT WILL EXIST GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH. SUCH A
TORNADO THREAT COULD BE THE CASE WITH INITIAL WARM SECTOR STORMS
EAST OF THE PACIFIC FRONT...ANY QLCS-EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS THAT
EVOLVE...AND/OR WITH QLCS-SOUTH PERIPHERAL STORMS THAT SHOULD BE OF
A MORE DISCRETE NATURE /FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE A BIT MORE
SUBTLE/ WITHIN A HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TX. AT LEAST AN ISOLATED/MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST/EAST TX INTO WESTERN/SOUTHWEST LA.

...NORTHWEST TX/SOUTHWEST OK...
EVEN WITH A COOL/MARGINALLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
CAPABLE OF HAIL TO AROUND SEVERE LEVELS AND/OR PERHAPS A TORNADO
COULD DEVELOP EARLY/MID AFTERNOON MONDAY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
NEARLY STACKED SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS CYCLONE. SHOULD
MODEST/SUFFICIENT HEATING OCCUR...THIS COULD INITIALLY BE THE CASE
ACROSS NORTHWEST TX INCLUDING THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE VICINITIES. GIVEN THE LIMITED NATURE OF THE
MOISTURE/BUOYANCY AND EXPECTED COLD FRONTAL PROGRESSIONS...ANY
STRONG/SEVERE TSTM THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND OF A RELATIVELY
LIMITED DURATION.

..GUYER.. 12/18/2011

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KPBZ [181650]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPBZ 181650
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1150 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1148 AM SNOW GREENSBURG 40.30N 79.54W
12/18/2011 E2.3 INCH WESTMORELAND PA TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1101269

$$

JD

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181553
SWODY1
SPC AC 181552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0952 AM CST SUN DEC 18 2011

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LOW OVER NRN BAJA WILL ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS NWRN MEXICO AND
SRN PARTS OF AZ/NM IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM
DIGGING SEWD THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
INTO GREAT BASIN. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WHILE A SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS OVER ERN NM INTO WRN TX.

...LOWER CO VALLEY INTO WRN TX/SWRN OK...

THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TSTMS THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE CORRIDOR OF
DCVA/HEIGHT FALLS PRECEDING UPPER LOW. THOUGH THE AMBIENT AIR MASS
IS NOT OVERLY MOIST /PER 12Z SOUNDINGS AND GPS PW DATA/...THE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL COINCIDE WITH THE WRN EDGE OF STEEPER
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL
DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER SYSTEM TODAY OVER WRN TX WHERE STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL ALIGN WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WRN EXTENT
OF A MODIFIED CP AIR MASS RETURNING FROM THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

..MEAD.. 12/18/2011

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KMQT [181504]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 181504
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1004 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 4 E SILVER CITY 46.84N 89.48W
12/18/2011 M2.0 INCH ONTONAGON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL. LIQUID EQUIVALENT 0.10

0700 AM SNOW 1 S MANISTIQUE 45.95N 86.25W
12/18/2011 M2.0 INCH SCHOOLCRAFT MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL. LIQUID EQUIVALENT 0.08

0700 AM SNOW 2 NNW SNYDER LAKE 46.51N 85.96W
12/18/2011 M2.0 INCH ALGER MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL. LIQUID EQUIVALENT 0.12

0700 AM SNOW WNW NEWBERRY 46.36N 85.52W
12/18/2011 M4.0 INCH LUCE MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL. LIQUID EQUIVALENT 0.17

&&

$$

KCOOLEY

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KTFX [181458]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 181458
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
758 AM MST SUN DEC 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 W BYNUM 47.98N 112.59W
12/18/2011 M59 MPH TETON MT MESONET

&&

$$

SUK

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KPBZ [181441]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KPBZ 181441
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
941 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 AM SNOW 1 SW WEST MIFFLIN 40.35N 79.93W
12/18/2011 M1.4 INCH ALLEGHENY PA COCORAHS

0538 AM SNOW 1 NNE SALEM 40.92N 80.85W
12/18/2011 M0.8 INCH COLUMBIANA OH COCORAHS

0700 AM SNOW NE MCMURRAY 40.28N 80.09W
12/18/2011 M1.0 INCH WASHINGTON PA COCORAHS

0700 AM SNOW 3 WNW WOLFDALE 40.22N 80.35W
12/18/2011 M1.0 INCH WASHINGTON PA COCORAHS

0921 AM SNOW CHALKHILL 39.84N 79.62W
12/18/2011 M3.0 INCH FAYETTE PA CO-OP OBSERVER

0923 AM SNOW CONNELLSVILLE 40.02N 79.59W
12/18/2011 M1.0 INCH FAYETTE PA CO-OP OBSERVER

0924 AM SNOW CANAAN HEIGHTS 39.10N 79.43W
12/18/2011 M2.0 INCH TUCKER WV CO-OP OBSERVER

0926 AM SNOW 1 WNW SAGAMORE 40.78N 79.24W
12/18/2011 M2.0 INCH ARMSTRONG PA CO-OP OBSERVER

0927 AM SNOW 1 SSW SLIPPERY ROCK 41.05N 80.07W
12/18/2011 M1.0 INCH BUTLER PA CO-OP OBSERVER

0927 AM SNOW 1 NNE STEUBENVILLE 40.38N 80.63W
12/18/2011 M1.0 INCH JEFFERSON OH CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1101265 PBZ1101266 PBZ1101267 PBZ1101268 PBZ1101259
PBZ1101260 PBZ1101261 PBZ1101262 PBZ1101263 PBZ1101264

$$

JD

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181236
SWODY1
SPC AC 181234

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0634 AM CST SUN DEC 18 2011

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT CUTOFF LOW NOW OVER NRN BAJA CA HAS BEGUN
ITS EXPECTED TREK TO THE ENE...IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF
UPSTREAM SYSTEM NOW OVER WA/ORE. THE BAJA LOW SHOULD REACH SRN
AZ/NRN SONORA BY THIS EVE...AND WRN-MOST TX AROUND 12Z MON.
OTHERWISE...LARGELY ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE
CNTRL AND ERN U.S.

AT THE SFC...RIDGE NOW IN PLACE OVER E TX AND THE LWR MS VLY SHOULD
EDGE E TO THE S ATLANTIC CST BY EARLY MON...ALLOWING LOW LVL SLY
FLOW TO STRENGTHEN AND DEEPEN OVER THE SRN PLNS. A COLD FRONT
MARKING THE NW BORDER OF THE RIDGE WILL ADVANCE S INTO SW KS AND NE
NM BY 12Z MON.

...SWRN STATES...
ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD ELEVATED TSTMS MAY OCCUR OVER CNTRL AND SRN AZ
TODAY...IN MID LVL WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF EJECTING LOW AND BENEATH
ZONE OF STRONGEST UPR DIFFLUENCE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE/DEVELOP
INTO WRN NM BY EVE. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM FARTHER W...JUST AHEAD OF
MAIN UPR VORT MAX...WHERE 500-MB TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM -24 TO
-28 DEG C. SPARSE MOISTURE WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY AND ANY THREAT FOR
SVR HAIL OR WIND.

IT APPEARS THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE UPR SYSTEM WILL FOCUS
OVER NRN MEXICO AND SRN NM/W TX TNGT AND EARLY MON AS THE MAIN UPR
CENTER TEMPORARILY CONSOLIDATES OVER FAR NRN PARTS OF SONORA AND
CHIHUAHUA. THIS MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A FAIRLY SOLID LINE OF
CONVECTION/STORMS OVER SRN NM AND FAR W TX TNGT/EARLY MON.

FARTHER E...APPROACH OF UPR SYSTEM WILL INDUCE DEVELOPMENT OF A SLY
LLJ AND A SEPARATE WAA PLUME FROM W TX TO CNTRL KS. THIS WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE/THETAE TO INCREASE ATOP INCREASINGLY SHALLOW LAYER OF
RESIDUAL CP AIR OVER W TX. A FEW EPISODES/AREAS OF ELEVATED STORMS
MAY FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AS EARLY AS LATE THIS AFTN...BUT MORE
LIKELY TNGT THROUGH EARLY MON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED
TO AREA AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...WITH ASSOCIATED
BUOYANCY LIKELY REMAINING TOO WEAK TO POSE A THREAT FOR SVR HAIL.
`

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 12/18/2011

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