SWODY1
SPC AC 190036
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 PM CST SUN DEC 18 2011
VALID 190100Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SW AZ WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ALONG THE
US-MEXICO BORDER TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A WELL-DEVELOPED 45
TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS MOISTURE RETURNS NWD INTO
CNTRL AND WEST TX. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE BENEATH
THE CORE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHERE COLD TEMPS ALOFT EXIST ALONG
WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
MOVES OUT INTO WEST AND NORTHWEST TX WHERE LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST AS FAR NEWD AS SW OK
TOWARD 12Z. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.
..BROYLES.. 12/19/2011
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