KCYS [060439]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 060439
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
939 PM MST FRI MAR 05 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0920 PM SNOW GLENROCK 42.86N 105.86W
03/05/2010 E1.0 INCH CONVERSE WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROADS A MESS

0930 PM SNOW MEDICINE BOW 41.90N 106.20W
03/05/2010 E3.0 INCH CARBON WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0932 PM SNOW TORRINGTON 42.07N 104.18W
03/05/2010 E1.0 INCH GOSHEN WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

LIGHT SNOW AT THIS TIME.

0924 PM SNOW 10 N DOUGLAS 42.90N 105.39W
03/05/2010 E2.0 INCH CONVERSE WY PUBLIC

DEPTH OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KRIW [060328]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KRIW 060328
LSRRIW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
826 PM MDT FRI MAR 05 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1019 AM SNOW SHOSHONI 43.23N 108.10W
03/05/2010 M0.00 INCHES FREMONT WY POST OFFICE

1019 AM SNOW RIVERTON 4W 43.03N 108.45W
03/05/2010 M0.75 INCHES FREMONT WY NWS EMPLOYEE

1019 AM SNOW RIVERTON 5N 43.10N 108.39W
03/05/2010 M1.00 INCHES FREMONT WY NWS EMPLOYEE

1020 AM SNOW KINNEAR 43.15N 108.67W
03/05/2010 M2.00 INCHES FREMONT WY PUBLIC

1020 AM HEAVY SNOW KINNEAR 7.2ESE 43.10N 108.56W
03/05/2010 M7.00 INCHES FREMONT WY NWS EMPLOYEE

1020 AM SNOW RIVERTON 10NW 43.11N 108.53W
03/05/2010 M4.00 INCHES FREMONT WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1022 AM SNOW LANDER 1.7 N 42.85N 108.72W
03/05/2010 M5.50 INCHES FREMONT WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1022 AM SNOW DUBOIS 9.7 WNW 43.57N 109.82W
03/05/2010 M1.50 INCHES FREMONT WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1023 AM SNOW THAYNE 4.2 NNE 42.97N 110.95W
03/05/2010 M2.80 INCHES LINCOLN WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1023 AM SNOW THAYNE 1SE 42.90N 110.98W
03/05/2010 M3.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY PUBLIC

1023 AM HEAVY SNOW SMOOT 4.9 SSE 42.55N 110.88W
03/05/2010 M6.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1024 AM SNOW PINEDALE 13 SE 42.75N 109.66W
03/05/2010 M0.80 INCHES SUBLETTE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1025 AM SNOW MOOSE .4 S 43.65N 110.71W
03/05/2010 M2.00 INCHES TETON WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1025 AM SNOW JACKSON 12.3 NE 43.62N 110.62W
03/05/2010 M2.00 INCHES TETON WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1025 AM SNOW PINEDALE 13.8 NW 42.98N 110.08W
03/05/2010 M0.20 INCHES SUBLETTE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1026 AM SNOW KEMMERER 0.6 N 41.79N 110.54W
03/05/2010 M0.10 INCHES LINCOLN WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1038 AM SNOW LANDER 4.4 SSW 42.77N 108.77W
03/05/2010 M4.60 INCHES FREMONT WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1038 AM HEAVY SNOW SOUTH PASS 42.47N 108.84W
03/05/2010 M8.00 INCHES FREMONT WY WYDOT

WYO 28 NEAR SOUTH PASS

1040 AM HEAVY SNOW LANDER 12 SW 42.70N 108.90W
03/05/2010 E9.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

TOWNSEND CREEK SNOTEL

1041 AM HEAVY SNOW ATLANTIC CITY 7 NW 42.57N 108.84W
03/05/2010 E6.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

SOUTH PASS SNOTEL

1041 AM SNOW LANDER 19 SSW 42.59N 108.90W
03/05/2010 E3.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

DEER PARK SNOTEL

1041 AM HEAVY SNOW LANDER 18 W 42.87N 109.09W
03/05/2010 E16.50 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

HOBBS PARK SNOTEL

1041 AM HEAVY SNOW LANDER 26 NW 43.03N 109.17W
03/05/2010 E12.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

ST. LAWRENCE ALT SNOTEL

1042 AM HEAVY SNOW CROWHEART 14 W 43.28N 109.45W
03/05/2010 E7.50 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

COLD SPRINGS SNOTEL

1042 AM SNOW BOULDER 24 ESE 42.65N 109.26W
03/05/2010 E3.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

BIG SANDY OPENING SNOTEL

0723 PM SNOW COKEVILLE 42.08N 110.95W
03/05/2010 M3.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0724 PM HEAVY SNOW AFTON 42.72N 110.93W
03/05/2010 M8.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0724 PM SNOW BIG PINEY 21 W 42.49N 110.53W
03/05/2010 E3.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

SNIDER BASIN SNOTEL

0724 PM SNOW KEMMERER 36 N 42.30N 110.68W
03/05/2010 E2.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET

INDIAN CREEK SNOTEL

0725 PM SNOW AFTON 19 SE 42.53N 110.66W
03/05/2010 E3.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET

SPRING CREEK DIVIDE SNOTEL

0725 PM SNOW AFTON 8 SE 42.65N 110.81W
03/05/2010 E4.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET

COTTONWOOD CREEK SNOTEL

0725 PM SNOW AFTON 17 E 42.76N 110.59W
03/05/2010 E4.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

TRIPLE PEAK SNOTEL

0725 PM SNOW BONDURANT 19 SW 42.96N 110.61W
03/05/2010 E2.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET

BLIND BULL SUMMIT SNOTEL

0725 PM SNOW AFTON 8 NE 42.82N 110.84W
03/05/2010 E4.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET

WILLOW CREEK SNOTEL

0726 PM SNOW KEMMERER 41.78N 110.54W
03/05/2010 M3.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0726 PM SNOW KEMMERER 41.78N 110.55W
03/05/2010 M4.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY PUBLIC

0726 PM SNOW WAMSUTTER 41.67N 107.98W
03/05/2010 M2.00 INCHES SWEETWATER WY PUBLIC

0727 PM SNOW POWDER RIVER 43.03N 106.98W
03/05/2010 M4.00 INCHES NATRONA WY PUBLIC

0727 PM SNOW POWDER RIVER SCHOOL 43.03N 106.98W
03/05/2010 M3.00 INCHES NATRONA WY CO-OP OBSERVER

0727 PM SNOW HILAND 43.11N 107.34W
03/05/2010 M2.00 INCHES NATRONA WY PUBLIC

0728 PM HEAVY SNOW CASPER 8 S 42.73N 106.32W
03/05/2010 E9.00 INCHES NATRONA WY MESONET

CASPER MOUNTAIN SNOTEL

0728 PM HEAVY SNOW CASPER 22 SSE 42.57N 106.09W
03/05/2010 E7.00 INCHES NATRONA WY MESONET

RENO HILL SNOTEL

0755 PM SNOW CASPER 42.84N 106.31W
03/05/2010 M3.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0805 PM SNOW CASPER 42.83N 106.34W
03/05/2010 M2.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0806 PM SNOW MILLS 5NW 42.87N 106.44W
03/05/2010 M5.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0810 PM HEAVY SNOW CASPER 10SW 42.75N 106.49W
03/05/2010 M6.00 INCHES NATRONA WY PUBLIC

0821 PM SNOW JEFFREY CITY 42.49N 107.82W
03/05/2010 M2.00 INCHES FREMONT WY CO-OP OBSERVER

0824 PM SNOW SWEETWATER STATION 2E 42.53N 108.17W
03/05/2010 M5.00 INCHES FREMONT WY PUBLIC

0825 PM HEAVY SNOW CASPER 7S 42.73N 106.35W
03/05/2010 M8.50 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0157

ACUS11 KWNS 060141
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060141
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-060615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0157
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 PM CST FRI MAR 05 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD AND FAR SERN ND

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 060141Z - 060615Z

FREEZING RAIN WITH RATES UP TO 0.02-0.05 IN/HR IS FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE PROBABLE ACROSS ERN SD AND FAR SERN ND DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ICE PELLETS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER CONVECTIVE
CORES THAT MAY DEVELOP AND TRANSLATE NWD ACROSS MAINLY SD.

00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS ALONG WITH RECENT WV IMAGERY INDICATE AN
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NERN CO/NEB PANHANDLE...WITH A S/W TROUGH
EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS ERN CO INTO FAR WRN KS. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THIS S/W WILL ROTATE N-NEWD ACROSS NEB DURING THE
NIGHT...WHICH WILL FOCUS STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER SD.
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AT 01Z SHOWS BANDED ECHO STRUCTURES ARE
FORMING ACROSS ERN SD SWD INTO NEB...WITH PRECIPITATION RATES
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS ASCENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE DURING THE
NIGHT AND DEEP LAYER OF SATURATION DEVELOPS.

IN ADDITION...E-SELY SURFACE WINDS EMANATING FROM SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER LAKE MI WILL AID IN MAINTAINING INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER SURFACE DEWPOINTS...RESULTING IN SURFACE WET BULB COOLING AS
PRECIPITATION RATES INCREASE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TOWARD OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. MEANWHILE...RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES THE NOSE
OF A 40+ KT 850 MB JET WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE ERN HALF OF SD
BY 04-06Z...FOCUSING LOW LEVEL WAA OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA AS WELL
AS 4-6 DEG C WARM NOSE...RESULTING IN VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES
FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING RAIN. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO FORECAST
TO STEEPEN DURING THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING NWD
THROUGH NEB. DECREASING STABILITY COMBINED WITH SATURATED CONDITIONS
AT 700 MB WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST ELEVATED MUCAPE
VALUES. ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY FORM AS A RESULT...POSSIBLY
PRODUCING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER MAINLY SD...WHICH WOULD
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION/FREEZING RAINFALL RATES AS WELL AS INCREASE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE PELLETS.

..GARNER.. 03/06/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON 45999652 44309644 43229692 43069837 43190014 44420068
45930017 46589893 46609746 45999652

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KCYS [060122]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 060122
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
622 PM MST FRI MAR 05 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0621 PM SNOW CHEYENNE 41.15N 104.79W
03/05/2010 M3.8 INCH LARAMIE WY BROADCAST MEDIA

LIQUID EQUIVALENT 0.31 INCH.

&&

$$

SJC

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 060037
SWODY1
SPC AC 060035

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0635 PM CST FRI MAR 05 2010

VALID 060100Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...N CNTRL PLAINS...
BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT...FOCUSED WHERE STRONGER
HEATING OCCURRED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...IS IN THE PROCESS OF
WEAKENING/DIMINISHING. HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION...BASED IN A
DOWNSTREAM LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME...AS STRONGER
MID-LEVEL COOLING LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY...WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS/CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE LACK OF A SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO...CAPE IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH MUCH
BEYOND A FEW HUNDRED JOULES/KG. THIS WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT
STRENGTH...AND POTENTIAL FOR STORMS REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA APPEARS
NEGLIGIBLE.

..KERR.. 03/06/2010

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KGJT [060030]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 060030
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
530 PM MST FRI MAR 05 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0348 PM SNOW GRAND MESA 39.05N 107.87W
03/05/2010 M4.0 INCH DELTA CO AVALANCHE FCSTR

24 HOUR AMOUNT

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1000251

$$

BK

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KAMA [060010]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 060010
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
610 PM CST FRI MAR 05 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM WILDFIRE 12 S CLAUDE 34.93N 101.36W
03/05/2010 E640 ACRE ARMSTRONG TX TX DPS

WILDFIRE SOUTH OF CLAUDE OFF OF TEXAS STATE HIGHWAY 207
AND ONE MILE WEST OF PAPA ROAD. NO INJURIES REPORTED
HOWEVER ONE OUTBUILDING WAS DAMAGED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000217

$$

KJS

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KCYS [060003]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 060003
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
502 PM MST FRI MAR 05 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0502 PM SNOW 7 E GARRETT 42.10N 105.47W
03/05/2010 E3.0 INCH ALBANY WY TRAINED SPOTTER

LIGHT SNOW OCCURRED THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SNOW INTENSITY
INCREASED AT 400 PM MST.

&&

$$

SJC

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KGJT [052357]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KGJT 052357
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
456 PM MST FRI MAR 05 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0527 AM NON-TSTM WND GST OPHIR 37.86N 107.83W
03/05/2010 M79 MPH SAN MIGUEL CO AVALANCHE FCSTR

ABRAMS REMOTE SENSOR

0527 AM NON-TSTM WND GST OPHIR 37.86N 107.83W
03/05/2010 M67 MPH SAN MIGUEL CO AVALANCHE FCSTR

KENDALL REMOTE SENSOR

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1000249 GJT1000250

$$

BK

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KCYS [052135]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 052135
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
235 PM MST FRI MAR 05 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1233 PM SNOW SYBILLE RESEARCH UNIT 41.76N 105.38W
03/05/2010 M2.0 INCH ALBANY WY CO-OP OBSERVER

1/4-1/2 MI VIS

1235 PM SNOW CARPENTER 41.03N 104.34W
03/05/2010 M2.0 INCH LARAMIE WY PUBLIC

1245 PM SNOW RAWLINS 41.78N 107.23W
03/05/2010 E2.0 INCH CARBON WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

ALOT HAS MELTED

0150 PM SNOW CHEYENNE 41.15N 104.79W
03/05/2010 M4.0 INCH LARAMIE WY NWS EMPLOYEE

SOME AREAS MEASURED HAD 6 INCHES OF SNOW.SOME COMPACTING
AND MELTING HAS OCCURED.

0210 PM SNOW 5 W CHEYENNE 41.15N 104.89W
03/05/2010 M3.5 INCH LARAMIE WY OTHER FEDERAL

0148 PM SNOW PINE BLUFFS 41.18N 104.07W
03/05/2010 M2.0 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0156

ACUS11 KWNS 052011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052011
KSZ000-NEZ000-052245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0156
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 PM CST FRI MAR 05 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS THROUGH SWRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 052011Z - 052245Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM NWRN KS THROUGH SWRN NEB BY
21-22Z. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. OVERALL
THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A WW ISSUANCE.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN
WRN NEB SEWD TO A SECONDARY LOW IN SW NEB/NW KS WHERE IT TRANSITIONS
TO A DRYLINE THAT CONTINUES SWD THROUGH WRN KS. A COLD FRONT WAS
OBSERVED MOVING SEWD THROUGH ERN CO AND EXTREME NWRN KS. A MOIST
AXIS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S IS ADVECTING NWD ALONG A 35+ KT
LOW-LEVEL JET. COLD AIR ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES AOB -20C AT 500 MB
AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX EJECTING
NEWD THROUGH ERN CO IS BEGINNING TO OVERTAKE THE WRN EDGE OF THE
MOIST AXIS. THIS PROCESS ALONG WITH DIABATIC WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE IN A NARROW AXIS
FROM WRN KS THROUGH SWRN NEB...BUT MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIMIT MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN CONVERGENCE AXIS ALONG THE
DRYLINE BY 22Z AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND AS DEEPER FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING VORT MAX OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE. EVENTUAL
UPSCALE LINEAR GROWTH APPEARS PROBABLE. THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE
EVENT.

..DIAL.. 03/05/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 38760107 39450112 39930119 40290119 40560065 40300006
39569982 38830015 38650064 38760107

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 051948
SWODY1
SPC AC 051946

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 PM CST FRI MAR 05 2010

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SWRN NEB/WRN KS...

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM
ROTATING NEWD AROUND PARENT UPPER SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PIVOT NEWD ACROSS WRN INTO CNTRL PARTS OF KS AND NEB THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL WIND MAXIMUM OF 50-60 KT
/NOTED AS LOW AS 4 KM AGL PER GRENADA CO PROFILER/ WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS VORTICITY MAXIMUM EWD/NEWD...ENHANCING DEEP-LAYER SLY FLOW
FIELD ACROSS THE REGION.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 40S.
HOWEVER...STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE
TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OF AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MLCAPE
MAY APPROACH 200-400 J/KG.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEPENING CONVECTION
OCCURRING WITHIN DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG SUBSEQUENT COLD
FRONTAL SURGES...ONE JUST S OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR OF ERN CO...AND THE
OTHER OVER FAR SERN CO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
THIS AFTERNOON AS LEADING COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER EWD INTO WRN KS.
WITH TIME...A BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS MAY EVOLVE FROM PARTS OF SWRN NEB
INTO WRN KS. THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD APPEARS TO BE HAIL /SOME
POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA/ GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. A BRIEF TORNADO ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY MORE INTENSE TSTMS THAT REMAIN COLOCATED
WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NNEWD ALONG COLD FRONT. HERE...STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL COINCIDE WITH A HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF
AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY.

..MEAD/ROGERS.. 03/05/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0959 AM CST FRI MAR 05 2010/

...SWRN NEB/NWRN KS...
AS THE UPPER LOW NWRN CO CONTINUES ENEWD INTO WRN NEB TONIGHT...A
VIGOROUS MID LEVEL S/WV SRN CO/NRN NM WILL ROTATE NEWD AHEAD OF LOW
CENTER ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING.

A 40-45KT LLJ HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE
TO THE LEE TROUGHING ERN CO AHEAD OF THE S/WV TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS MARGINAL MOVING NWD THRU THE HIGH PLAINS...THE
COMBINATION OF VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...8C/KM OR
GREATER...AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY OR SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING.

WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING THRU THE 60S IN WRN KS AND
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 40S...MUCAPES WILL STILL ONLY BE ABLE
TO REACH TO AROUND 500 J/KG BY 21Z AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING N/S DRY
LINE FAR WRN KS.

SURFACE BOUNDARY FORECASTED TO MOVE EWD AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM ERN CO
DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AS IT OVERTAKES THE DRY LINE IN WRN KS INTO SWRN NEB.

GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...HAIL WILL BE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STRONG UPDRAFT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY GIVEN
THE LARGE SCALE UPPER SUPPORT AND VEERING SHEAR PROFILES...THAT
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO BRIEFLY ROTATE INCREASING THE THREAT
OF LARGER HAIL AND EVEN A BRIEF FUNNEL AND/OR TORNADO.

CONCERN FOR ANY MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD END BY EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EWD TOWARD
SCENTRAL NEB/NCENTRAL KS.

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KHNX [051938]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 051938
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
1134 AM PST FRI MAR 05 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0506 AM HEAVY SNOW HUME LAKE 36.79N 118.91W
03/04/2010 M7.0 INCH FRESNO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

0731 AM HEAVY SNOW FISH CAMP 37.48N 119.64W
03/04/2010 M12.0 INCH MARIPOSA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

0835 AM HEAVY SNOW 20 N AHWAHNEE 37.68N 119.71W
03/04/2010 M4.5 INCH MARIPOSA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

MEASURED AT PONDEROSA BASIN.

0854 AM HEAVY SNOW PONDEROSA 36.10N 118.52W
03/04/2010 M13.0 INCH TULARE CA TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MENDENHALL

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KCYS [051841]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 051841
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1140 AM MST FRI MAR 05 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1137 AM SNOW 9 N CHEYENNE 41.28N 104.79W
03/05/2010 M1.0 INCH LARAMIE WY NWS EMPLOYEE

MEASUREMENT IS AN AVERAGE OF SEVERAL MEASUREMENTS DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW.

1045 AM SNOW CHEYENNE 41.15N 104.79W
03/05/2010 M1.0 INCH LARAMIE WY OFFICIAL NWS OBS

SNOW DEPTH IS 1 INCH.

&&

$$

LUNDQUIST

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KRIW [051745]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KRIW 051745
LSRRIW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1045 AM MDT FRI MAR 5 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1019 AM SNOW SHOSHONI 43.23N 108.10W
03/05/2010 M0.00 INCHES FREMONT WY POST OFFICE

1019 AM SNOW RIVERTON 4W 43.03N 108.45W
03/05/2010 M0.75 INCHES FREMONT WY NWS EMPLOYEE

1019 AM SNOW RIVERTON 5N 43.10N 108.39W
03/05/2010 M1.00 INCHES FREMONT WY NWS EMPLOYEE

1020 AM SNOW KINNEAR 43.15N 108.67W
03/05/2010 M2.00 INCHES FREMONT WY PUBLIC

1020 AM HEAVY SNOW KINNEAR 7.2ESE 43.10N 108.56W
03/05/2010 M7.00 INCHES FREMONT WY NWS EMPLOYEE

1020 AM SNOW RIVERTON 10NW 43.11N 108.53W
03/05/2010 M4.00 INCHES FREMONT WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1020 AM SNOW JEFFREY CITY 42.49N 107.82W
03/05/2010 M1.00 INCHES FREMONT WY CO-OP OBSERVER

1022 AM SNOW LANDER 1.7 N 42.85N 108.72W
03/05/2010 M5.50 INCHES FREMONT WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1022 AM SNOW DUBOIS 9.7 WNW 43.57N 109.82W
03/05/2010 M1.50 INCHES FREMONT WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1023 AM SNOW THAYNE 4.2 NNE 42.97N 110.95W
03/05/2010 M2.80 INCHES LINCOLN WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1023 AM SNOW THAYNE 1SE 42.90N 110.98W
03/05/2010 M3.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY PUBLIC

1023 AM HEAVY SNOW SMOOT 4.9 SSE 42.55N 110.88W
03/05/2010 M6.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1024 AM SNOW PINEDALE 13 SE 42.75N 109.66W
03/05/2010 M0.80 INCHES SUBLETTE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1025 AM SNOW MOOSE .4 S 43.65N 110.71W
03/05/2010 M2.00 INCHES TETON WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1025 AM SNOW JACKSON 12.3 NE 43.62N 110.62W
03/05/2010 M2.00 INCHES TETON WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1025 AM SNOW PINEDALE 13.8 NW 42.98N 110.08W
03/05/2010 M0.20 INCHES SUBLETTE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1026 AM SNOW KEMMERER 0.6 N 41.79N 110.54W
03/05/2010 M0.10 INCHES LINCOLN WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1038 AM SNOW LANDER 4.4 SSW 42.77N 108.77W
03/05/2010 M4.60 INCHES FREMONT WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1038 AM HEAVY SNOW SOUTH PASS 42.47N 108.84W
03/05/2010 M8.00 INCHES FREMONT WY WYDOT

WYO 28 NEAR SOUTH PASS

1040 AM HEAVY SNOW LANDER 12 SW 42.70N 108.90W
03/05/2010 E9.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

TOWNSEND CREEK SNOTEL

1041 AM HEAVY SNOW ATLANTIC CITY 7 NW 42.57N 108.84W
03/05/2010 E6.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

SOUTH PASS SNOTEL

1041 AM SNOW LANDER 19 SSW 42.59N 108.90W
03/05/2010 E3.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

DEER PARK SNOTEL

1041 AM HEAVY SNOW LANDER 18 W 42.87N 109.09W
03/05/2010 E16.50 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

HOBBS PARK SNOTEL

1041 AM HEAVY SNOW LANDER 26 NW 43.03N 109.17W
03/05/2010 E12.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

ST. LAWRENCE ALT SNOTEL

1041 AM SNOW SWEETWATER STATION 2E 42.53N 108.17W
03/05/2010 M3.50 INCHES FREMONT WY PUBLIC

1042 AM HEAVY SNOW CROWHEART 14 W 43.28N 109.45W
03/05/2010 E7.50 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

COLD SPRINGS SNOTEL

1042 AM SNOW BOULDER 24 ESE 42.65N 109.26W
03/05/2010 E3.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

BIG SANDY OPENING SNOTEL

&&

$$

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KGJT [051651]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 051651
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
951 AM MST FRI MAR 05 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0949 AM SNOW POWDERHORN SKI 39.06N 108.16W
03/05/2010 M3.0 INCH MESA CO PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1000248

$$

AS

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 051649
SWODY2
SPC AC 051648

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1048 AM CST FRI MAR 05 2010

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

COMPACT MIDLEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN ON DAY TWO WHILE PROGRESSING ESEWD THROUGH THE MID MO INTO
MID MS VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM SYSTEM OVER
THE FAR ERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...
IMPACTING CA...PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN...THE SWRN DESERTS AND NRN
BAJA.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A WEAK SURFACE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CNTRL CONUS
UPPER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM VICINITY OF CNTRL NEB INTO ERN IA
WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGS SWD/SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND
MID MO VALLEY.

...MID/LOWER MO VALLEY...

DEEP-LAYER ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF WEAKENING MIDLEVEL SYSTEM WILL SERVE
TO MAINTAIN SPORADIC TSTM ACTIVITY INVOF SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE DAY
TWO PERIOD. ANY INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED TO THE N OF
WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT AND ROOTED WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH
MUCAPE OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. DIURNAL STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT OR PRE-FRONTAL WIND
SHIFT FROM ERN NEB/WRN IA SWD INTO NERN KS/NWRN MO. HERE
TOO...CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS FORECAST.

...SWRN U.S...

A BROADLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME COUPLED WITH A SERIES OF
WEAKER MIDLEVEL PERTURBATIONS ROTATING AROUND PRIMARY UPPER SYSTEM
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE ZONE OF ASCENT OVER REGION SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
AND EPISODIC SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..MEAD.. 03/05/2010

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KLKN [051634]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KLKN 051634
LSRLKN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
834 AM PST FRI MAR 05 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM SNOW OROVADA 41.57N 117.83W
03/04/2010 M6.0 INCH HUMBOLDT NV CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

JM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 051601
SWODY1
SPC AC 051559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0959 AM CST FRI MAR 05 2010

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SWRN NEB/NWRN KS...
AS THE UPPER LOW NWRN CO CONTINUES ENEWD INTO WRN NEB TONIGHT...A
VIGOROUS MID LEVEL S/WV SRN CO/NRN NM WILL ROTATE NEWD AHEAD OF LOW
CENTER ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING.

A 40-45KT LLJ HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE
TO THE LEE TROUGHING ERN CO AHEAD OF THE S/WV TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS MARGINAL MOVING NWD THRU THE HIGH PLAINS...THE
COMBINATION OF VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...8C/KM OR
GREATER...AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY OR SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING.

WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING THRU THE 60S IN WRN KS AND
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 40S...MUCAPES WILL STILL ONLY BE ABLE
TO REACH TO AROUND 500 J/KG BY 21Z AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING N/S DRY
LINE FAR WRN KS.

SURFACE BOUNDARY FORECASTED TO MOVE EWD AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM ERN CO
DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AS IT OVERTAKES THE DRY LINE IN WRN KS INTO SWRN NEB.

GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...HAIL WILL BE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STRONG UPDRAFT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY GIVEN
THE LARGE SCALE UPPER SUPPORT AND VEERING SHEAR PROFILES...THAT
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO BRIEFLY ROTATE INCREASING THE THREAT
OF LARGER HAIL AND EVEN A BRIEF FUNNEL AND/OR TORNADO.

CONCERN FOR ANY MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD END BY EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EWD TOWARD
SCENTRAL NEB/NCENTRAL KS.

..HALES/ROGERS.. 03/05/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 051255
SWODY1
SPC AC 051254

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 AM CST FRI MAR 05 2010

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM RIDGE ALONG THE BC
CST. WITHIN THIS REGIME...EXPECT ELONGATED LOW NOW OFF THE ORE CST
TO CONTINUE SSEWD...WHILE COMPACT LOW OVER NW CO MOVES SLOWLY ENE
INTO WRN NEB.

AT THE SFC...LEE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH/CONFLUENCE LINE SHOULD
EDGE E/NE INTO FAR WRN KS/SW NEB BY EARLY EVE. PERSISTENT POLAR
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MS VLY WILL LIMIT LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURN INTO
THE WRN PLNS...ALTHOUGH CURRENT DATA SUGGEST THAT PW SHOULD EXCEED
.50 IN OVER NW KS/SW NEB THIS AFTN/EVE.

...CNTRL HI PLNS...
A BAND OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PRECEDE CO UPR LOW AS THAT
SYSTEM CONTINUES ENEWD TODAY. THIS BAND OF ASCENT SHOULD REACH FAR
NE CO/SW NEB AND NW KS BY MID TO LATE AFTN. ASSOCIATED MID LVL
COOLING/MOISTENING AND MODEST LWR LVL MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW EXISTING SHALLOW CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO A
BAND OF TSTMS...OR FOR NEW CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DEEPEN INTO STORMS
ON W EDGE OF LOW LVL MOIST AXIS,

BY LATE IN THE DAY...STEEP BOUNDARY LYR LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST OVER
THE REGION BENEATH A FAIRLY DEEP /800 TO 400 MB/ LAYER OF
DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR TROUGH. THIS MAY YIELD
SBCAPE OF 250 TO PERHAPS 500 J/KG AS SFC DEW POINTS REACH THE LWR
40S F. COUPLED WITH MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL SSWLY CLOUD-LYR
FLOW...SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY SFC WINDS.
LIMITED MOISTURE MAGNITUDE AND NARROW NATURE OF LOW LVL MOIST AXIS
SUGGEST THAT ANY ASSOCIATED SVR THREAT WILL BE ISOLD/SHORT-LIVED.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 03/05/2010

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 050919
SWOD48
SPC AC 050918

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 AM CST FRI MAR 05 2010

VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE PARADE OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL INFLUENCE
THE WEATHER ACROSS LOWER LATITUDES NEXT WEEK. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY TO DAY
DETAILS...BUT SOMEWHAT HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ONE OR MORE POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE EVENTS MAY UNFOLD. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
INTRODUCE AN OUTLOOK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE...MAINLY DUE TO THE
INITIAL SLOW NWD RETURN OF TRUE MARITIME BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND AND
MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WHICH MAY RESOLVE THEMSELVES CLOSER TO THE
EXPECTED EVENTS.

..DARROW.. 03/05/2010

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 050812
SWODY3
SPC AC 050811

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 AM CST FRI MAR 05 2010

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT INLAND ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. DURING
THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY3 PERIOD BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE
CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES LATE. IN RESPONSE...A LEE TROUGH WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND A MODEST BUT FOCUSED LLJ
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX INTO WRN
KS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 08/00Z. AIRMASS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE AND THE ONLY
PART OF THE GULF BASIN WHERE ANY MEANINGFUL MODIFICATION WILL TAKE
PLACE WILL BE ACROSS THE WRN GULF. EVEN SO SFC DEW POINTS WILL
STRUGGLE TO APPROACH 60F UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE LOWER
VALLEY. CERTAINLY 40S TO PERHAPS LOW 50S WILL SURGE NWWD INTO THE
TX SOUTH PLAINS ALONG THE NM BORDER AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
PROVIDING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR DEEP CONVECTION. LATEST MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS
THIS REGION LATE WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 500-800 J/KG...MORE THAN
ADEQUATE FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE INCREASING ASCENT. HOWEVER
LATEST THINKING IS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...CAPABLE OF
GENERATING ONE INCH HAIL...DOES NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..DARROW.. 03/05/2010

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 050627
SWODY2
SPC AC 050625

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 AM CST FRI MAR 05 2010

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER MO VALLEY...

CNTRL ROCKIES UPPER LOW WILL BREAK THROUGH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING
LOCATED ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD BEFORE MOVING INTO
IA LATE. THIS FEATURE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE UVV FIELD ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION...PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG
NOSE OF LLJ...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC WAVE. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST
WEAK...PRIMARILY ELEVATED...INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE
STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION ZONE WHICH SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITHIN MUCAPE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY ROUGHLY 100 J/KG.

...CA TO WEST TX...

CONCENTRATED HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SRN CA/NRN BAJA
REGION OF MEXICO AS STRONG JET CORE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH TOWARD THE NRN GULF OF CA. MODELS SUGGEST A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT
FLOW REGIME WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. WHICH SHOULD ENCOURAGE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MARINE LAYER OF SRN CA. ALTHOUGH
BUOYANCY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT GREAT IT APPEARS DYNAMIC FORCING
WILL EASILY RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE WIND SHIFT AS
IT MOVES INLAND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SMALL HAIL COULD
DEVELOP WITH STRONGEST UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED
MODEST LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...7 C/KM THROUGH 6KM.

DOWNSTREAM...INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE INTERIOR
LOWER DESERTS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AZ/NM. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED.

..DARROW.. 03/05/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 050539
SWODY1
SPC AC 050537

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CST THU MAR 04 2010

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONGER BELTS OF WESTERLIES EMANATING FROM THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
LATITUDE PACIFIC SPLIT WEST OF THE PACIFIC COAST...BEFORE CONVERGING
ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. AND THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITHIN THIS
REGIME...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A SPLITTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE DIGGING WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...GRADUALLY
EVOLVING INTO A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW...AND MERGING INTO THE
SOUTHERN STREAM. AS THIS OCCURS... GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SHORT
WAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD DOWNSTREAM ...ACROSS THE NORTHERN MEXICAN
PLATEAU/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. BUT THE
AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE MAY BE LIMITED BY A WEAKENING CLOSED LOW
MIGRATING EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC
COAST...SURFACE RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN PROMINENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. AND GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
CONTRIBUTE TO THE MAINTENANCE OF GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NATION...WITH LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION.

...CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS...
AS FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAKENING CLOSED LOW OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY...
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL BEING
REALIZED SEEMS TO EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC COOLING ADVECTS ACROSS AN AXIS OF STRONGER
SURFACE HEATING NEAR THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THIS REGION WILL GENERALLY BE
CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 40S F...WITH MIXED LAYER
CAPE LESS THAN 500 J/KG. SO STORMS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO REACH
SEVERE CRITERIA...BUT A COUPLE COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS IN THE PRESENCE OF COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR.

..KERR/STOPPKOTTE/GARNER.. 03/05/2010

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