SWODY3
SPC AC 050811
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 AM CST FRI MAR 05 2010
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT INLAND ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. DURING
THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY3 PERIOD BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE
CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES LATE. IN RESPONSE...A LEE TROUGH WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND A MODEST BUT FOCUSED LLJ
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX INTO WRN
KS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 08/00Z. AIRMASS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE AND THE ONLY
PART OF THE GULF BASIN WHERE ANY MEANINGFUL MODIFICATION WILL TAKE
PLACE WILL BE ACROSS THE WRN GULF. EVEN SO SFC DEW POINTS WILL
STRUGGLE TO APPROACH 60F UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE LOWER
VALLEY. CERTAINLY 40S TO PERHAPS LOW 50S WILL SURGE NWWD INTO THE
TX SOUTH PLAINS ALONG THE NM BORDER AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
PROVIDING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR DEEP CONVECTION. LATEST MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS
THIS REGION LATE WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 500-800 J/KG...MORE THAN
ADEQUATE FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE INCREASING ASCENT. HOWEVER
LATEST THINKING IS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...CAPABLE OF
GENERATING ONE INCH HAIL...DOES NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..DARROW.. 03/05/2010
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