SWODY2
SPC AC 050625
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 AM CST FRI MAR 05 2010
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...LOWER MO VALLEY...
CNTRL ROCKIES UPPER LOW WILL BREAK THROUGH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING
LOCATED ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD BEFORE MOVING INTO
IA LATE. THIS FEATURE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE UVV FIELD ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION...PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG
NOSE OF LLJ...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC WAVE. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST
WEAK...PRIMARILY ELEVATED...INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE
STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION ZONE WHICH SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITHIN MUCAPE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY ROUGHLY 100 J/KG.
...CA TO WEST TX...
CONCENTRATED HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SRN CA/NRN BAJA
REGION OF MEXICO AS STRONG JET CORE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH TOWARD THE NRN GULF OF CA. MODELS SUGGEST A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT
FLOW REGIME WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. WHICH SHOULD ENCOURAGE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MARINE LAYER OF SRN CA. ALTHOUGH
BUOYANCY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT GREAT IT APPEARS DYNAMIC FORCING
WILL EASILY RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE WIND SHIFT AS
IT MOVES INLAND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SMALL HAIL COULD
DEVELOP WITH STRONGEST UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED
MODEST LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...7 C/KM THROUGH 6KM.
DOWNSTREAM...INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE INTERIOR
LOWER DESERTS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AZ/NM. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED.
..DARROW.. 03/05/2010
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