KCYS [200127]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 200127
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
726 PM MDT MON APR 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0723 PM HAIL 19 E HARRISBURG 41.55N 103.37W
04/19/2010 E0.50 INCH MORRILL NE PUBLIC

HAIL FROM PEA SIZE TO DIME SIZE.

&&

$$

DDEAL

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KBOU [200126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 200126
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
726 PM MDT MON APR 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0718 PM HAIL SW HOYT 40.02N 104.07W
04/19/2010 M1.50 INCH MORGAN CO TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORTED AS WALNUT SIZE HAIL.

0510 PM HAIL 12 W AGATE 39.47N 104.18W
04/19/2010 M0.75 INCH ELBERT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL COVERED GROUND.

&&

$$

BENTON

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 200044
SWODY1
SPC AC 200043

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 PM CDT MON APR 19 2010

VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...HIGH PLAINS...

00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A RATHER DRY AND RELATIVELY
COOL BOUNDARY LAYER HAS LIMITED AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION TODAY. AS
SUCH...EXPECT ONGOING DIURNAL STORMS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE ONSET OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. ALL SEVERE
WEATHER PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST.

..MEAD.. 04/20/2010

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KBOU [192339]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOU 192339
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
539 PM MDT MON APR 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0510 PM HAIL 12 W AGATE 39.47N 104.18W
04/19/2010 M0.75 INCH ELBERT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL COVERED GROUND.

&&

$$

BENTON

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KLBF [192333]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 192333
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
633 PM CDT MON APR 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0625 PM HAIL 6 NE ASHBY 42.09N 101.85W
04/19/2010 E0.25 INCH CHERRY NE PUBLIC

&&

$$

SJC

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KLBF [192209]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 192209
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
509 PM CDT MON APR 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM HAIL 7 NW RUSHVILLE 42.78N 102.56W
04/19/2010 E0.50 INCH SHERIDAN NE PUBLIC

THE PUBLIC REPORTED PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL THAT COVERED
THE GROUND NORTHWEST OF RUSHVILLE.

&&

$$

SJACOBS

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KLWX [192010]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KLWX 192010
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
408 PM EDT MON APR 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM TSTM WND GST 1 SW CONOCOCHEAGUE 39.65N 77.86W
04/16/2010 M60 MPH WASHINGTON MD BROADCAST MEDIA

0443 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SSE UNIONVILLE 39.45N 77.16W
04/16/2010 FREDERICK MD 911 CENTER

TREE DOWN AT WOODVILLE ROAD AND TALBOT RUN.

0447 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 W POPLAR SPRINGS 39.34N 77.14W
04/16/2010 HOWARD MD 911 CENTER

LARGE TREE DOWN IN LISBON NEAR SHAFFERSVILLE RD AND
LONG CORNER

0638 PM TSTM WND GST 2 SE LADIESBURG 39.55N 77.24W
04/16/2010 E60 MPH FREDERICK MD TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1000157 LWX1000154 LWX1000155 LWX1000156

$$

KRAMAR

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KCTP [191957]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KCTP 191957
LSRCTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
356 PM EDT MON APR 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0347 PM TSTM WND GST GREENCASTLE 39.79N 77.73W
04/16/2010 M50.00 MPH FRANKLIN PA TRAINED SPOTTER

0430 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 W PHILIPSBURG 40.89N 78.29W
04/16/2010 CLEARFIELD PA COUNTY OFFICIAL

911 CENTER REPORTED TREES DOWN BLOCKING ROAD IN DECATUR
TOWNSHIP.

0430 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 NW BLACK MOSHANNON ST 40.97N 78.14W
04/16/2010 CLEARFIELD PA BROADCAST MEDIA

SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN WINBURNE. REPORT RELAYED VIA
WTAJ-TV10.

0440 PM TSTM WND GST JOHNSTOWN 40.33N 78.92W
04/16/2010 E60.00 MPH CAMBRIA PA TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN AND PEA SIZE HAIL

0440 PM TSTM WND DMG JOHNSTOWN 40.33N 78.92W
04/16/2010 CAMBRIA PA TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN. POWER OUTAGES. PEA SIZE HAIL.

0445 PM TSTM WND DMG DAVIDSVILLE 40.23N 78.94W
04/16/2010 SOMERSET PA COUNTY OFFICIAL

911 CENTER REPORTED TREES DOWN WITH POWER OUTAGES.

0445 PM TSTM WND DMG WINDBER 40.23N 78.83W
04/16/2010 SOMERSET PA COUNTY OFFICIAL

911 CENTER REPORTED TREES DOWN WITH POWER OUTAGES. ALSO
IN RICHLAND.

0448 PM TSTM WND GST JOHNSTOWN 40.33N 78.92W
04/16/2010 M62.00 MPH CAMBRIA PA ASOS

54 KNOT WIND GUST AT AIRPORT.

0505 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 N OSTERBURG 40.25N 78.53W
04/16/2010 BEDFORD PA COUNTY OFFICIAL

OLD SCHOOL HOUSE COLLAPSED IN IMLER.

0505 PM TSTM WND DMG ALTOONA 40.51N 78.40W
04/16/2010 BLAIR PA COUNTY OFFICIAL

911 CENTER REPORTED TREES AND WIRES DOWN WITH COUNTY WIDE
DAMAGE.

0508 PM TSTM WND GST ALTOONA 40.51N 78.40W
04/16/2010 E50.00 MPH BLAIR PA NWS EMPLOYEE

0510 PM TSTM WND DMG NEW ENTERPRISE 40.16N 78.37W
04/16/2010 BEDFORD PA COUNTY OFFICIAL

911 CENTER REPORTED BARN COLLAPSED WITH COWS INSIDE.

0510 PM TSTM WND GST 1 SSE MARTINSBURG 40.30N 78.32W
04/16/2010 M79.00 MPH BLAIR PA ASOS

KAOO ASOS

0515 PM TSTM WND DMG SAXTON 40.21N 78.25W
04/16/2010 BEDFORD PA COUNTY OFFICIAL

911 CENTER REPORTED MOBILE HOME PARTIALLY COLLAPSED.

0525 PM TSTM WND DMG HUNTINGDON 40.50N 78.01W
04/16/2010 HUNTINGDON PA COUNTY OFFICIAL

911 CENTER REPORTED TREES AND WIRES DOWN IN ONEIDA AND
PENN TOWNSHIPS WITH ADDITIONAL DAMAGE ACROSS COUNTY.

0535 PM TSTM WND DMG MCVEYTOWN 40.50N 77.74W
04/16/2010 MIFFLIN PA COUNTY OFFICIAL

911 CENTER REPORTED NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

0535 PM TSTM WND DMG LEWISTOWN 40.60N 77.57W
04/16/2010 MIFFLIN PA COUNTY OFFICIAL

911 CENTER REPORTED NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

0541 PM TSTM WND DMG CHAMBERSBURG 39.93N 77.66W
04/16/2010 FRANKLIN PA COUNTY OFFICIAL

911 CENTER REPORTED NUMEROUS TREES ON WIRES ACROSS
COUNTY.

0550 PM TSTM WND DMG BEAVER SPRINGS 40.74N 77.22W
04/16/2010 SNYDER PA COUNTY OFFICIAL

911 CENTER REPORTED UTILITY WIRES DOWN IN A 0.8 MILE
STRETCH.

0559 PM TSTM WND GST 7 W GETTYSBURG 39.83N 77.37W
04/16/2010 M56.00 MPH ADAMS PA CO-OP OBSERVER

OBSERVER AT ORRTANNA.

0611 PM TSTM WND GST NEWPORT 40.48N 77.13W
04/16/2010 M66.00 MPH PERRY PA TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND WNW AVERAGING 49 MPH AT 615 PM.

0620 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SSW MECHANICSBURG 40.15N 77.05W
04/16/2010 CUMBERLAND PA EMERGENCY MNGR

*** 1 INJ *** VEHICLE STRUCK BY FALLING TREE. 1 INJURY.
INCIDENT OCCURRED ON LOCUST PT RD BTWN BAISH RD AND PARK
PL IN MONROE TWP.

0635 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 ENE SKYLINE VIEW 40.35N 76.69W
04/16/2010 DAUPHIN PA PUBLIC

10 LARGE PINE TREES DOWN ON THE 500 BLOCK OF N. MILL RD.

0635 PM TSTM WND GST HUMMELSTOWN 40.27N 76.71W
04/16/2010 E50.00 MPH DAUPHIN PA TRAINED SPOTTER

0640 PM TSTM WND GST LEWISBERRY 40.14N 76.86W
04/16/2010 E60.00 MPH YORK PA TRAINED SPOTTER

0640 PM TSTM WND DMG LEWISBERRY 40.14N 76.86W
04/16/2010 YORK PA TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN.

0642 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 W JONESTOWN 40.41N 76.58W
04/16/2010 LEBANON PA COUNTY OFFICIAL

911 CENTER REPORTED TREE FELL ON AUTO IN EAST HANOVER.
DRIVER WAS NOT INJURED.

0643 PM TSTM WND GST 3 N LEBANON 40.38N 76.42W
04/16/2010 E65.00 MPH LEBANON PA PUBLIC

LARGE ROOF BLOWN OFF KENNEL IN NORTH LEBANON TOWNSHIP.

0655 PM TSTM WND GST 2 E YORK 39.96N 76.69W
04/16/2010 E60.00 MPH YORK PA PUBLIC

WIND GUST IN EAST YORK.

0655 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 E YORK 39.96N 76.69W
04/16/2010 YORK PA PUBLIC

WHOLE TREES KNOCKED DOWN ALONG EAST MARKET STREET AND
EDGEWOOD ROAD IN EAST YORK.

0700 PM TSTM WND GST 3 NNW MILLERSVILLE 40.04N 76.38W
04/16/2010 M70.00 MPH LANCASTER PA BROADCAST MEDIA

WGAL TV METEOROLOGIST

0715 PM TSTM WND DMG LANCASTER 40.04N 76.30W
04/16/2010 LANCASTER PA COUNTY OFFICIAL

911 CENTER REPORTED TREES AND WIRES DOWN COUNTY WIDE.

&&
FINAL LSR SUMMARY FOR APRIL 16 2010 SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. ALL REPORTS
QUALITY CONTROLLED AND TIME-MATCHED WITH KCCX RADAR IMAGERY.
$$

STEINBUGL

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KCTP [191952]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCTP 191952
LSRCTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
351 PM EDT MON APR 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 NW BLACK MOSHANNON ST 40.97N 78.14W
04/16/2010 CLEARFIELD PA BROADCAST MEDIA

SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN WINBURNE. REPORT RELAYED VIA
WTAJ-TV10.

&&

$$

STEINBUGL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191944
SWODY1
SPC AC 191943

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT MON APR 19 2010

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...PLAINS...

LITTLE CHANGE TO EARLIER FORECAST PACKAGE. DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS...IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF DIGGING UPPER VORT/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. CU FIELD IS GRADUALLY EXPANDING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE BLACK HILLS...AND ACROSS OTHER HIGHER RIDGES WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT ROBUST UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF GENERATING GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

...GULF COAST..

BOUNDARY LAYER HAS WARMED RAPIDLY ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM LA...EWD
INTO FL. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY
DEVELOPED A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN EARLIER EXPECTED ACROSS SRN LA.
FOR THIS REASON HAVE EXTENDED GENERAL THUNDER WWD ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR TOWARDS LCH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UPDRAFTS SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK AND INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL TEND TO PROPAGATE RANDOMLY
DRIVEN LARGELY BY OUTFLOW AND SEA BREEZE MOMENTUM.

..DARROW.. 04/19/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT MON APR 19 2010/

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A WEAK...BUT COMPLEX...SPLIT FLOW REGIME PERSISTS OVER THE
WRN/CENTRAL STATES WITH MULTIPLE FLOW STREAMS. THE NRN STREAM
EXTENDS WELL TO THE N IN CANADA...WHILE THE PRIMARY SRN STREAM
EXTENDS FROM NRN MEXICO TO S TX TO FL. IN BETWEEN...SEVERAL WEAK
PERTURBATIONS ARE MOVING SLOWLY EWD/SEWD FROM THE NRN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES TO THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE MOST PRONOUNCED WAVES
LOCATED OVER ERN MT AND ERN SD. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A WEAK LEE
TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE LEE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO FOCUS ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8
C/KM...AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WILL REDUCE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...MLCAPE
WILL REMAIN RATHER MODEST /500-750 J PER KG/ AS A RESULT OF LIMITED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING/. MEANWHILE...DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 30 KT WNWLY MIDLEVEL
FLOW ABOVE LOW-LEVEL SLY WINDS. THE NET RESULT WILL BE AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL APPROACHING 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...AS WELL AS STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS.

...CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON...
AN INITIAL WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED S OF THE FL PENINSULA...WITH A
WEAK SECONDARY MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL FL. ALOFT...A WEAK
MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER
FL THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND WEAK BACKGROUND ASCENT WITH THE
APPROACHING MIDLEVEL TROUGH...WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FL. STILL...MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR OVER FL AND WILL SUBSTANTIALLY LIMIT
INSTABILITY AND ANY ATTENDANT THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 191725
SWODY2
SPC AC 191724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT MON APR 19 2010

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE CA COAST TUESDAY
WITH A RIDGE EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE ROCKIES. ON THE DOWNSTREAM
SIDE OF RIDGE AXIS...WITHIN NWLY FLOW...IT APPEARS A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY DIG SEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INDUCING A WEAK
SFC LOW OVER ECNTRL CO. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL AID STRONG BOUNDARY
LAYER HEATING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS OF CO/SWRN KS...SWD ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER SUCH THAT LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXCEED 9 C/KM. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD SFC PARCELS
SHOULD REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
NEAR THE SFC LOW AS IT DRIFTS SEWD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
WELL MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
MAXIMIZED ON THE HIGHER PLAINS. OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE...WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD ENHANCE A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NERN CO/NWRN KS JUST NORTH OF BOUNDARY ATOP COOLER AIRMASS. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED BUT STRONGLY SHEARED THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DECIDEDLY ELY. EVEN THOUGH
SFC-BASED DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL...MAINLY MID-UPPER 40S...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL MAINTAIN 5% PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN CO/WRN KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...BUT A
SLIGHT RISK MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS REGION AS LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
WILL ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WELL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

..DARROW.. 04/19/2010

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KLWX [191708]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 191708
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
108 PM EDT MON APR 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM TSTM WND GST 1 SW CONOCOCHEAGUE 39.65N 77.86W
04/16/2010 M60 MPH WASHINGTON MD BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1000157

$$

KRAMAR

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191628
SWODY1
SPC AC 191626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT MON APR 19 2010

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A WEAK...BUT COMPLEX...SPLIT FLOW REGIME PERSISTS OVER THE
WRN/CENTRAL STATES WITH MULTIPLE FLOW STREAMS. THE NRN STREAM
EXTENDS WELL TO THE N IN CANADA...WHILE THE PRIMARY SRN STREAM
EXTENDS FROM NRN MEXICO TO S TX TO FL. IN BETWEEN...SEVERAL WEAK
PERTURBATIONS ARE MOVING SLOWLY EWD/SEWD FROM THE NRN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES TO THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE MOST PRONOUNCED WAVES
LOCATED OVER ERN MT AND ERN SD. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A WEAK LEE
TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE LEE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO FOCUS ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8
C/KM...AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WILL REDUCE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...MLCAPE
WILL REMAIN RATHER MODEST /500-750 J PER KG/ AS A RESULT OF LIMITED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING/. MEANWHILE...DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 30 KT WNWLY MIDLEVEL
FLOW ABOVE LOW-LEVEL SLY WINDS. THE NET RESULT WILL BE AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL APPROACHING 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...AS WELL AS STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS.

...CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON...
AN INITIAL WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED S OF THE FL PENINSULA...WITH A
WEAK SECONDARY MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL FL. ALOFT...A WEAK
MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER
FL THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND WEAK BACKGROUND ASCENT WITH THE
APPROACHING MIDLEVEL TROUGH...WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FL. STILL...MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR OVER FL AND WILL SUBSTANTIALLY LIMIT
INSTABILITY AND ANY ATTENDANT THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.

..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 04/19/2010

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KEWX [191457]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KEWX 191457
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
957 AM CDT MON APR 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 N PEARSALL 28.92N 99.09W
04/16/2010 FRIO TX PUBLIC

PERSONS IN PEARSALL REPORTED WATER COVERING SOME RURAL
ROADS.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000128

$$

CJM

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KEWX [191456]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KEWX 191456
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
956 AM CDT MON APR 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0738 AM FLASH FLOOD N DEL RIO 29.38N 100.90W
04/16/2010 VAL VERDE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

SOME URBAN FLOODING AT INTERSECTIONS CAUSING SEVERAL
STRANDED MOTORISTS

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000127

$$

CJM

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KEWX [191446]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KEWX 191446
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
945 AM CDT MON APR 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0220 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 W LACOSTE 29.31N 98.86W
04/15/2010 MEDINA TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

FM471... CR482... CR584 IN AND NEAR LACOSTE ARE CLOSED
DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000119

$$

CJM

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KEWX [191440]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KEWX 191440
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
940 AM CDT MON APR 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0945 AM FLASH FLOOD 7 NNE SAN ANTONIO 29.51N 98.45W
04/17/2010 BEXAR TX PUBLIC

HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR THE SAN ANTONIO AIRPORT HAS CAUSED
STREET FLOODING ON COUNTRY CLUB LANE.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000136

$$

CJM

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KEWX [191438]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KEWX 191438
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
938 AM CDT MON APR 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1115 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 N CARRIZO SPRINGS 28.55N 99.86W
04/15/2010 DIMMIT TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

FM 1407 AND FM 1557 IN CARRIZO SPRINGS ARE CLOSED DUE
TO WATER OVER THE ROADS.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000115

$$

CJM

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KEWX [191433]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KEWX 191433
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
933 AM CDT MON APR 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM FLASH FLOOD 13 NNW SAN ANTONIO 29.59N 98.57W
04/17/2010 BEXAR TX PUBLIC

HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSE FLOODING AT THE FM1604 AND
STONEOAK INTERSECTION.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000138

$$

CJM

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KCTP [191433]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KCTP 191433
LSRCTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1032 AM EDT MON APR 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0347 PM TSTM WND GST GREENCASTLE 39.79N 77.73W
04/16/2010 M50.00 MPH FRANKLIN PA TRAINED SPOTTER

0430 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 W PHILIPSBURG 40.89N 78.29W
04/16/2010 CLEARFIELD PA COUNTY OFFICIAL

911 CENTER REPORTED TREES DOWN BLOCKING ROAD IN DECATUR
TOWNSHIP.

0440 PM TSTM WND DMG JOHNSTOWN 40.33N 78.92W
04/16/2010 CAMBRIA PA TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN. POWER OUTAGES. PEA SIZE HAIL.

0440 PM TSTM WND GST JOHNSTOWN 40.33N 78.92W
04/16/2010 E60.00 MPH CAMBRIA PA TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN AND PEA SIZE HAIL

0445 PM TSTM WND DMG WINDBER 40.23N 78.83W
04/16/2010 SOMERSET PA COUNTY OFFICIAL

911 CENTER REPORTED TREES DOWN WITH POWER OUTAGES. ALSO
IN RICHLAND.

0445 PM TSTM WND DMG DAVIDSVILLE 40.23N 78.94W
04/16/2010 SOMERSET PA COUNTY OFFICIAL

911 CENTER REPORTED TREES DOWN WITH POWER OUTAGES.

0448 PM TSTM WND GST JOHNSTOWN 40.33N 78.92W
04/16/2010 M62.00 MPH CAMBRIA PA ASOS

54 KNOT WIND GUST AT AIRPORT.

0505 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 N OSTERBURG 40.25N 78.53W
04/16/2010 BEDFORD PA COUNTY OFFICIAL

OLD SCHOOL HOUSE COLLAPSED IN IMLER.

0505 PM TSTM WND DMG ALTOONA 40.51N 78.40W
04/16/2010 BLAIR PA COUNTY OFFICIAL

911 CENTER REPORTED TREES AND WIRES DOWN WITH COUNTY WIDE
DAMAGE.

0508 PM TSTM WND GST ALTOONA 40.51N 78.40W
04/16/2010 E50.00 MPH BLAIR PA NWS EMPLOYEE

0510 PM TSTM WND DMG NEW ENTERPRISE 40.16N 78.37W
04/16/2010 BEDFORD PA COUNTY OFFICIAL

911 CENTER REPORTED BARN COLLAPSED WITH COWS INSIDE.

0510 PM TSTM WND GST 1 SSE MARTINSBURG 40.30N 78.32W
04/16/2010 M79.00 MPH BLAIR PA ASOS

KAOO ASOS

0515 PM TSTM WND DMG SAXTON 40.21N 78.25W
04/16/2010 BEDFORD PA COUNTY OFFICIAL

911 CENTER REPORTED MOBILE HOME PARTIALLY COLLAPSED.

0525 PM TSTM WND DMG HUNTINGDON 40.50N 78.01W
04/16/2010 HUNTINGDON PA COUNTY OFFICIAL

911 CENTER REPORTED TREES AND WIRES DOWN IN ONEIDA AND
PENN TOWNSHIPS WITH ADDITIONAL DAMAGE ACROSS COUNTY.

0535 PM TSTM WND DMG MCVEYTOWN 40.50N 77.74W
04/16/2010 MIFFLIN PA COUNTY OFFICIAL

911 CENTER REPORTED NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

0535 PM TSTM WND DMG LEWISTOWN 40.60N 77.57W
04/16/2010 MIFFLIN PA COUNTY OFFICIAL

911 CENTER REPORTED NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

0541 PM TSTM WND DMG CHAMBERSBURG 39.93N 77.66W
04/16/2010 FRANKLIN PA COUNTY OFFICIAL

911 CENTER REPORTED NUMEROUS TREES ON WIRES ACROSS
COUNTY.

0550 PM TSTM WND DMG BEAVER SPRINGS 40.74N 77.22W
04/16/2010 SNYDER PA COUNTY OFFICIAL

911 CENTER REPORTED UTILITY WIRES DOWN IN A 0.8 MILE
STRETCH.

0559 PM TSTM WND GST 7 W GETTYSBURG 39.83N 77.37W
04/16/2010 M56.00 MPH ADAMS PA CO-OP OBSERVER

OBSERVER AT ORRTANNA.

0611 PM TSTM WND GST NEWPORT 40.48N 77.13W
04/16/2010 M66.00 MPH PERRY PA TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND WNW AVERAGING 49 MPH AT 615 PM.

0620 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SSW MECHANICSBURG 40.15N 77.05W
04/16/2010 CUMBERLAND PA EMERGENCY MNGR

*** 1 INJ *** VEHICLE STRUCK BY FALLING TREE. 1 INJURY.
INCIDENT OCCURRED ON LOCUST PT RD BTWN BAISH RD AND PARK
PL IN MONROE TWP.

0635 PM TSTM WND GST HUMMELSTOWN 40.27N 76.71W
04/16/2010 E50.00 MPH DAUPHIN PA TRAINED SPOTTER

0635 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 ENE SKYLINE VIEW 40.35N 76.69W
04/16/2010 DAUPHIN PA PUBLIC

10 LARGE PINE TREES DOWN ON THE 500 BLOCK OF N. MILL RD.

0640 PM TSTM WND DMG LEWISBERRY 40.14N 76.86W
04/16/2010 YORK PA TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN.

0640 PM TSTM WND GST LEWISBERRY 40.14N 76.86W
04/16/2010 E60.00 MPH YORK PA TRAINED SPOTTER

0642 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 W JONESTOWN 40.41N 76.58W
04/16/2010 LEBANON PA COUNTY OFFICIAL

911 CENTER REPORTED TREE FELL ON AUTO IN EAST HANOVER.
DRIVER WAS NOT INJURED.

0643 PM TSTM WND GST 3 N LEBANON 40.38N 76.42W
04/16/2010 E65.00 MPH LEBANON PA PUBLIC

LARGE ROOF BLOWN OFF KENNEL IN NORTH LEBANON TOWNSHIP.

0655 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 E YORK 39.96N 76.69W
04/16/2010 YORK PA PUBLIC

WHOLE TREES KNOCKED DOWN ALONG EAST MARKET STREET AND
EDGEWOOD ROAD IN EAST YORK.

0655 PM TSTM WND GST 2 E YORK 39.96N 76.69W
04/16/2010 E60.00 MPH YORK PA PUBLIC

WIND GUST IN EAST YORK.

0700 PM TSTM WND GST 3 NNW MILLERSVILLE 40.04N 76.38W
04/16/2010 M70.00 MPH LANCASTER PA BROADCAST MEDIA

WGAL TV METEOROLOGIST

0715 PM TSTM WND DMG LANCASTER 40.04N 76.30W
04/16/2010 LANCASTER PA COUNTY OFFICIAL

911 CENTER REPORTED TREES AND WIRES DOWN COUNTY WIDE.

&&
FINAL LSR SUMMARY FOR APRIL 16 2010 SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. ALL REPORTS
QUALITY CONTROLLED AND TIME-MATCHED WITH KCCX RADAR IMAGERY.
$$

STEINBUGL

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KEWX [191429]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KEWX 191429
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
929 AM CDT MON APR 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 NE LEMING 29.11N 98.44W
04/17/2010 ATASCOSA TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

FM536 BETWEEN HIGHWAY 281 AND IH37 IS CLOSED.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000143

$$

CJM

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KEWX [191428]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KEWX 191428
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
928 AM CDT MON APR 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 AM FLASH FLOOD 9 W SAN ANTONIO 29.42N 98.64W
04/17/2010 BEXAR TX TRAINED SPOTTER

ROADS FLOODED AND CARS STRANDED NEAR INGRAM AND MARBACH
ROADS.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000141

$$

CJM

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KEWX [191428]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KEWX 191428
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
928 AM CDT MON APR 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM FLASH FLOOD 15 NNE SAN ANTONIO 29.62N 98.39W
04/17/2010 BEXAR TX TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAINFALL AND NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES CAUSING
LOCAL STREET FLOODING IN STONEOAK.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000137

$$

CJM

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KEWX [191427]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KEWX 191427
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
927 AM CDT MON APR 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM FLASH FLOOD N DEL RIO 29.38N 100.90W
04/16/2010 VAL VERDE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

SOME URBAN FLOODING AT INTERSECTIONS CAUSING SEVERAL
STRANDED MOTORISTS

&&

CORRECTED EVENT

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000127

$$

CJM

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KCTP [191415]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCTP 191415
LSRCTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1015 AM EDT MON APR 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0635 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 ENE SKYLINE VIEW 40.35N 76.69W
04/16/2010 DAUPHIN PA PUBLIC

10 LARGE PINE TREES DOWN ON THE 500 BLOCK OF N. MILL RD.

&&
DELAYED REPORT
$$

STEINBUGL

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KCTP [191351]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCTP 191351
LSRCTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
948 AM EDT MON APR 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SSW MECHANICSBURG 40.15N 77.05W
04/16/2010 CUMBERLAND PA EMERGENCY MNGR

*** 1 INJ *** VEHICLE STRUCK BY FALLING TREE. 1 INJURY.
INCIDENT OCCURRED ON LOCUST PT RD BTWN BAISH RD AND PARK
PL IN MONROE TWP.

&&
DELAYED REPORT
$$

STEINBUGL

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KCRP [191328]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 191328
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
828 AM CDT MON APR 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM FLOOD 6 W ROBSTOWN 27.80N 97.76W
04/18/2010 NUECES TX BROADCAST MEDIA

FLOODING CONTINUED ALONG BANQUETTE CREEK YESTERDAY. A
DRIVER TRIED TO CROSS THE FLOODED ROADWAY AT CR 38 AND CR
83 AND LOST CONTROL OF THE CAR. ALL FOUR PASSENGERS WERE
ABLE TO ABANDON THE VEHICLE TO SAFETY.

&&

$$

JR

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191217
SWODY1
SPC AC 191215

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0715 AM CDT MON APR 19 2010

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY
WILL BE LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING ESTABLISHED OVER THE
ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS REGION. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A LEE
TROUGH WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS
WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...DIURNAL
STORMS.

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
MORNING WV IMAGERY INDICATED A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS/VORT MAXIMA SHIFTING SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
AND THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY ALONG DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE RIDGING
ALOFT. TRAILING IMPULSES SHOULD SUPPORT STORM FORMATION ALONG NRN
EXTENSION OF THE LEE TROUGH OVER PARTS OF ERN WY INTO WRN PORTIONS
OF SD AND NEB DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE LEE TROUGH AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL/COVERAGE OF LATE DAY TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION.

DESPITE ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED
WITH COLD MID LEVEL AIR WILL SUPPORT LARGE LAPSE RATES AND MODEST
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY FROM 500-1000 J/KG EXPECTED. WHEN
COMBINED WITH VERTICAL WIND PROFILES EXHIBITING LIGHT SLY/SELY WINDS
VEERING TO 25-35 KT IN THE MIDLEVELS...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF HAIL...SOME OF
WHICH MAY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS.

IN ADDITION TO THE HAIL THREAT...THE RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY THE CASE SHOULD INDIVIDUAL STORMS MERGE INTO A LARGER
CLUSTER. EXPECT THE HAIL/WIND THREAT TO PERSIST INTO MID/LATE
EVENING PRIOR TO THE COOLING AND RESULTANT STABILIZATION OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.

..EVANS/STOPPKOTTE/MEAD.. 04/19/2010

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 190851
SWOD48
SPC AC 190850

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT MON APR 19 2010

VALID 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE...WITH THE GFS
NOW ROUGHLY 24 HOURS FASTER IN BRINGING THE LARGE WRN U.S. STORM
SYSTEM OUT OF THE ROCKIES/INTO THE PLAINS. BOTH MODELS DO CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST MARKED INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL AFTER MIDWEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM REACH THE CENTRAL CONUS
-- WITH CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EWD. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RATHER COMPLEX
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM -- WHICH COMPLICATES THE FORECAST IN TERMS
OF HIGHLIGHTING AREAS OF GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL -- ALONG WITH THE
SUBSTANTIAL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOW EMERGING BETWEEN THE
MODELS...WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT ANY SPECIFIC THREAT AREAS THIS FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 04/19/2010

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 190714
SWODY3
SPC AC 190712

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT MON APR 19 2010

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER LOW SHIFTING SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE DEEPENING THIS PERIOD...WITH STRONG SHORT-WAVE RIDGING
EXPECTED TO PERSIST IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM. FARTHER E...TROUGHING
IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY A BIT OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WHERE
NUMEROUS SMALLER-SCALE WAVES WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED IN THE
LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW.

AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE WRN
UPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE STEADY EWD PROGRESS ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM
SYSTEM...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS
FAR E AS THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. WHILE A STRONGER CELL OR TWO
MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AREA...CAPPING/SUBSIDENCE
BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG WITH LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
EXPECTED SUGGEST ONLY A VERY LIMITED/ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT -- TOO
LOW TO WARRANT THE INTRODUCTION OF ANY SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM.

ELSEWHERE...AREAS OF WEAK/DIURNAL CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS
OF THE ERN U.S. WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN.

..GOSS.. 04/19/2010

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 190559
SWODY2
SPC AC 190558

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT MON APR 19 2010

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF THE W COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW AS IT SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS
CA/NV. MEANWHILE...A LARGE BUT MUCH WEAKER/BROADER TROUGH WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE ERN CONUS...WITH NUMEROUS SMALLER-SCALE WAVES
SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN THE BROADER TROUGH. IN
BETWEEN...A LARGE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN
ROCKIES.

AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE W COAST STATES
EARLY WILL MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...WHICH -- ALONG WITH
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER SYSTEM -- WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE WRN STATES. MEANWHILE...WEAKER LOWS -- ONE CROSSING THE
SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER EVOLVING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS -- WILL
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD.

...HIGH PLAINS OF ERN CO/WRN KS SWD INTO THE TX/OH PANHANDLES...
MODEST /MAINLY UPPER 40S/ SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AND VICINITY WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING TO YIELD
VERY MODEST DESTABILIZATION /MIXED-LAYER CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG/. AS
WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG THE LEE TROUGH OVER SERN
CO/NERN NM/THE TX AND OK PANHANDLE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
SUBTLE/PASSING UPPER WAVE...EXPECT ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORM
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. WHILE SOMEWHAT STRONGER ACROSS NERN CO/SWRN
NEB/NWRN KS...MID-LEVEL WNWLYS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK.
HOWEVER...WITH SELYS AT LOW LEVELS...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROTATION.

WITH STORMS LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND SOMEWHAT MODEST SHEAR...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BECOME PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT. HOWEVER...WILL
INTRODUCE 5% PROBABILITY THIS FORECAST...TO COVER ISOLATED HAIL/WIND
THREAT WHICH MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..GOSS.. 04/19/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 190440
SWODY1
SPC AC 190438

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 PM CDT SUN APR 18 2010

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED POLAR BRANCH OF WESTERLIES WILL BE MAINTAINED
THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD...FEATURING AN INTENSIFYING MIDLEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE FAR NERN PACIFIC AND A PRONOUNCED DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
OVER PARTS OF WRN CANADA INTO THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION. IN THE
LOWER LATITUDES...A VIGOROUS MIDLEVEL IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL TRANSLATE ESEWD ACROSS NWRN MEXICO INTO THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. FARTHER E...A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL
SHIFT EWD ACROSS FL.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A LEE
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...DIURNAL STORMS.

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...

SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A WEAK VORTICITY
MAXIMUM MAY ROTATE SEWD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...SUPPORTING STORM
FORMATION ALONG NRN EXTENSION OF THE LEE TROUGH OVER PARTS OF ERN WY
INTO WRN PORTIONS OF SD AND NEB. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THAT
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AND TERRAIN INFLUENCES WILL SERVE
AS THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A SLIGHTLY MORE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO YIELD STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN
THAT OBSERVED SUNDAY WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1200 J/KG. WHEN
COMBINED WITH VERTICAL WIND PROFILES EXHIBITING LIGHT SLY/SELY WINDS
VEERING TO 25-35 KT IN THE MIDLEVELS...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF HAIL...SOME OF
WHICH MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS.

IN ADDITION TO THE HAIL THREAT...THE RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY THE CASE SHOULD INDIVIDUAL STORMS MERGE INTO A LARGER
CLUSTER. EXPECT THE HAIL/WIND THREAT TO PERSIST INTO MID/LATE
EVENING PRIOR TO THE COOLING AND RESULTANT STABILIZATION OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.

..MEAD/SMITH.. 04/19/2010

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