NWUS53 KLOT 170456
LSRLOT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1056 PM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1049 PM DENSE FOG ELK GROVE VILLAGE 42.01N 87.99W
11/16/2012 COOK IL TRAINED SPOTTER
LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE VISIBILITY
&&
$$
IZZI
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Friday, November 16, 2012
KLOT [170455]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLOT 170455
LSRLOT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1055 PM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1002 PM DENSE FOG MCHENRY 42.34N 88.29W
11/16/2012 MCHENRY IL TRAINED SPOTTER
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 100 FT
&&
$$
IZZI
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LSRLOT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1055 PM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1002 PM DENSE FOG MCHENRY 42.34N 88.29W
11/16/2012 MCHENRY IL TRAINED SPOTTER
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 100 FT
&&
$$
IZZI
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 170452
SWODY1
SPC AC 170450
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 PM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OWING TO
COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN COMBINATION WITH UPSLOPE/ONSHORE FLOW
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR THE
COAST...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES INLAND. SPARSE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO HINDER SEVERE
POTENTIAL.
FARTHER EAST...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MEANDER TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. COASTAL AND OFFSHORE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE ALONG A
SUBTLE SW-NE AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE INVOF MLB AND EXTENDING
WELL OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS. WEAK SHEAR AND INVERSIONS AT 850 AND
700 MB /SAMPLED WELL ON THE 00Z JAX SOUNDING/ WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
..DISPIGNA/GRAMS.. 11/17/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 170450
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 PM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OWING TO
COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN COMBINATION WITH UPSLOPE/ONSHORE FLOW
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR THE
COAST...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES INLAND. SPARSE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO HINDER SEVERE
POTENTIAL.
FARTHER EAST...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MEANDER TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. COASTAL AND OFFSHORE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE ALONG A
SUBTLE SW-NE AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE INVOF MLB AND EXTENDING
WELL OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS. WEAK SHEAR AND INVERSIONS AT 850 AND
700 MB /SAMPLED WELL ON THE 00Z JAX SOUNDING/ WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
..DISPIGNA/GRAMS.. 11/17/2012
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 170052
SWODY1
SPC AC 170050
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 PM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
VALID 170100Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MINIMAL TSTM THREAT OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD
PERSIST TONIGHT OFF THE FL ATLANTIC COAST. A STRIKE OR TWO OF
LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR THE SAN FRANSISCO BAY/ADJACENT CNTRL
CA COASTAL AREA LATE TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING INLAND.
..GRAMS.. 11/17/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 170050
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 PM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
VALID 170100Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MINIMAL TSTM THREAT OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD
PERSIST TONIGHT OFF THE FL ATLANTIC COAST. A STRIKE OR TWO OF
LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR THE SAN FRANSISCO BAY/ADJACENT CNTRL
CA COASTAL AREA LATE TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING INLAND.
..GRAMS.. 11/17/2012
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KTFX [170012]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 170012
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
511 PM MST FRI NOV 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 WSW SAINT MARY 48.69N 113.71W
11/16/2012 M66 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET
66 MPH WIND GUST AT LOGAN PASS VISITOR CENTER.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
511 PM MST FRI NOV 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 WSW SAINT MARY 48.69N 113.71W
11/16/2012 M66 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET
66 MPH WIND GUST AT LOGAN PASS VISITOR CENTER.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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KTFX [170009]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 170009
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
509 PM MST FRI NOV 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0300 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
11/16/2012 M58 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET
58 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DEEP CREEK RAWS LOCATION.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
509 PM MST FRI NOV 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0300 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
11/16/2012 M58 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET
58 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DEEP CREEK RAWS LOCATION.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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KJAX [162056]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KJAX 162056
LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
355 PM EST FRI NOV 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0900 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES SSE ST. AUGUSTINE 29.89N 81.31W
11/15/2012 ST. JOHNS FL NEWSPAPER
SAINT AUGUSTINE RECORD REPORTS STREET FLOODING ON MARINE
STREET, AVENIDA MENENDEZ AND THE DAVIS SHORES AREAS DUE
TO HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.
&&
$$
MZ
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LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
355 PM EST FRI NOV 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0900 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES SSE ST. AUGUSTINE 29.89N 81.31W
11/15/2012 ST. JOHNS FL NEWSPAPER
SAINT AUGUSTINE RECORD REPORTS STREET FLOODING ON MARINE
STREET, AVENIDA MENENDEZ AND THE DAVIS SHORES AREAS DUE
TO HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.
&&
$$
MZ
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 161940
SWODY1
SPC AC 161938
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0138 PM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
VALID 162000Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...AS A WEAK TROUGH CONTINUES
SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE SERN U.S. AND A SECOND/STRONGER FEATURE
DIGS SEWD OUT OF THE GULF OF AK TOWARD THE PAC NW. ANY APPRECIABLE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FL VICINITY THE
REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SERN U.S.
TROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FEATURING WEAK
INSTABILITY AND A LACK OF FLOW ALOFT...CONDITIONS REMAIN
UNSUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS.
..GOSS.. 11/16/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COUNTRY TODAY. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SEWD OUT OF THE OZARK
PLATEAU TOWARD THE NRN GULF COAST. MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND SFC
HEATING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE IN THE VICINITY OF A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN AND ERN FL WILL RESULT IN WEAK
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. FARTHER WEST...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CNTRL CA COAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH A STRIKE OR TWO OF
LIGHTNING POSSIBLE NEAR THE SAN FRANSISCO BAY/ADJACENT CNTRL CA
COASTAL AREAS.
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SWODY1
SPC AC 161938
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0138 PM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
VALID 162000Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...AS A WEAK TROUGH CONTINUES
SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE SERN U.S. AND A SECOND/STRONGER FEATURE
DIGS SEWD OUT OF THE GULF OF AK TOWARD THE PAC NW. ANY APPRECIABLE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FL VICINITY THE
REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SERN U.S.
TROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FEATURING WEAK
INSTABILITY AND A LACK OF FLOW ALOFT...CONDITIONS REMAIN
UNSUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS.
..GOSS.. 11/16/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COUNTRY TODAY. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SEWD OUT OF THE OZARK
PLATEAU TOWARD THE NRN GULF COAST. MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND SFC
HEATING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE IN THE VICINITY OF A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN AND ERN FL WILL RESULT IN WEAK
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. FARTHER WEST...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CNTRL CA COAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH A STRIKE OR TWO OF
LIGHTNING POSSIBLE NEAR THE SAN FRANSISCO BAY/ADJACENT CNTRL CA
COASTAL AREAS.
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 161903
SWODY2
SPC AC 161901
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 PM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW RESIDES OVER THE SERN U.S. THROUGH THE
PERIOD...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS
THE PAC NW. WITH STRONG ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINING WITH COLD
AIR AT MID LEVELS...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS PARTS OF WRN WA/ORE -- PARTICULARLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF SRN AND ERN FL...WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION
BUT WEAK FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS A LACK OF ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL.
..GOSS.. 11/16/2012
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SWODY2
SPC AC 161901
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 PM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW RESIDES OVER THE SERN U.S. THROUGH THE
PERIOD...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS
THE PAC NW. WITH STRONG ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINING WITH COLD
AIR AT MID LEVELS...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS PARTS OF WRN WA/ORE -- PARTICULARLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF SRN AND ERN FL...WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION
BUT WEAK FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS A LACK OF ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL.
..GOSS.. 11/16/2012
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KCHS [161709]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KCHS 161709
LSRCHS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1209 PM EST FRI NOV 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1015 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 2 W TYBEE ISLAND 32.02N 80.90W
11/16/2012 CHATHAM GA BROADCAST MEDIA
ONE LANE OF HWY 80 EASTBOUND AT FORT PULASKI WAS CLOSED
DUE TO FLOODING. TIDE GAUGE AT FORT PULASKI WAS AROUND
9.6 FT MLLW AT THIS TIME.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CHS1200833
$$
RJB
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LSRCHS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1209 PM EST FRI NOV 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1015 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 2 W TYBEE ISLAND 32.02N 80.90W
11/16/2012 CHATHAM GA BROADCAST MEDIA
ONE LANE OF HWY 80 EASTBOUND AT FORT PULASKI WAS CLOSED
DUE TO FLOODING. TIDE GAUGE AT FORT PULASKI WAS AROUND
9.6 FT MLLW AT THIS TIME.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CHS1200833
$$
RJB
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KCHS [161627]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KCHS 161627
LSRCHS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1127 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1055 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 1 ESE BEAUFORT 32.43N 80.67W
11/16/2012 BEAUFORT SC PUBLIC
SALT WATER APPROACHING THE TOP OF THE SEA WALL AT HENRY
C. CHAMBERS WATERFRONT PARK NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF BAY
STREET AND CHARLES STREET. ANY IMPACTS UNKNOWN.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CHS1200832
$$
JHP
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LSRCHS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1127 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1055 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 1 ESE BEAUFORT 32.43N 80.67W
11/16/2012 BEAUFORT SC PUBLIC
SALT WATER APPROACHING THE TOP OF THE SEA WALL AT HENRY
C. CHAMBERS WATERFRONT PARK NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF BAY
STREET AND CHARLES STREET. ANY IMPACTS UNKNOWN.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CHS1200832
$$
JHP
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KJAX [161619]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KJAX 161619
LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1119 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1048 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES FERNANDINA BEACH 30.66N 81.45W
11/16/2012 NASSAU FL OTHER FEDERAL
A MAXIMUM TIDE LEVEL OF 8.51 FT MLLW WAS OBSERVED AT THE
FERNANDINA BEACH TIDE GAGE WHICH WAS +0.45 FT ABOVE THE
PREDICTED HIGH TIDE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TYPICALLY
BEGINS WHEN TIDE LEVELS REACH 8.5 FT MLLW AT FERNANDINA
BEACH.
&&
$$
JHESS
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LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1119 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1048 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES FERNANDINA BEACH 30.66N 81.45W
11/16/2012 NASSAU FL OTHER FEDERAL
A MAXIMUM TIDE LEVEL OF 8.51 FT MLLW WAS OBSERVED AT THE
FERNANDINA BEACH TIDE GAGE WHICH WAS +0.45 FT ABOVE THE
PREDICTED HIGH TIDE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TYPICALLY
BEGINS WHEN TIDE LEVELS REACH 8.5 FT MLLW AT FERNANDINA
BEACH.
&&
$$
JHESS
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KCHS [161603]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KCHS 161603
LSRCHS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1103 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1012 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 3 WNW FORT SCREVEN 32.03N 80.90W
11/16/2012 CHATHAM GA TIDE GAGE
A MAXIMUM TIDE LEVEL OF 9.70 FT MLLW WAS OBSERVED AT
THE FORT PULASKI TIDE GAGE. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
TYPICALLY BEGINS ALONG THE UPPER GEORGIA COAST WHEN TIDE
LEVELS REACH 9.2 FT MLLW AT FORT PULASKI.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CHS1200831
$$
JHP
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LSRCHS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1103 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1012 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 3 WNW FORT SCREVEN 32.03N 80.90W
11/16/2012 CHATHAM GA TIDE GAGE
A MAXIMUM TIDE LEVEL OF 9.70 FT MLLW WAS OBSERVED AT
THE FORT PULASKI TIDE GAGE. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
TYPICALLY BEGINS ALONG THE UPPER GEORGIA COAST WHEN TIDE
LEVELS REACH 9.2 FT MLLW AT FORT PULASKI.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CHS1200831
$$
JHP
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KCHS [161600]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KCHS 161600
LSRCHS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1100 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0942 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 1 E CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.93W
11/16/2012 CHARLESTON SC TIDE GAGE
A MAXIMUM TIDE LEVEL OF 7.78 FT MLLW WAS OBSERVED AT
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAGE. SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING TYPICALLY BEGINS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST WHEN TIDE LEVELS REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CHS1200830
$$
JHP
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LSRCHS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1100 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0942 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 1 E CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.93W
11/16/2012 CHARLESTON SC TIDE GAGE
A MAXIMUM TIDE LEVEL OF 7.78 FT MLLW WAS OBSERVED AT
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAGE. SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING TYPICALLY BEGINS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST WHEN TIDE LEVELS REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CHS1200830
$$
JHP
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KJAX [161557]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KJAX 161557
LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1057 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1018 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES MAYPORT 30.38N 81.41W
11/16/2012 DUVAL FL OTHER FEDERAL
A MAXIMUM TIDE LEVEL OF 6.63 FT MLLW WAS OBSERVED AT THE
MAYPORT TIDE GAGE WHICH WAS +0.59 FT ABOVE THE PREDICTED
HIGH TIDE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TYPICALLY BEGINS WHEN
THE TIDE LEVELS REACH 6.40 FL MLLW AT MAYPORT.
&&
$$
JHESS
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LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1057 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1018 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES MAYPORT 30.38N 81.41W
11/16/2012 DUVAL FL OTHER FEDERAL
A MAXIMUM TIDE LEVEL OF 6.63 FT MLLW WAS OBSERVED AT THE
MAYPORT TIDE GAGE WHICH WAS +0.59 FT ABOVE THE PREDICTED
HIGH TIDE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TYPICALLY BEGINS WHEN
THE TIDE LEVELS REACH 6.40 FL MLLW AT MAYPORT.
&&
$$
JHESS
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 161553
SWODY1
SPC AC 161551
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0951 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
VALID 161630Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COUNTRY TODAY. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SEWD OUT OF THE OZARK
PLATEAU TOWARD THE NRN GULF COAST. MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND SFC
HEATING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE IN THE VICINITY OF A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN AND ERN FL WILL RESULT IN WEAK
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. FARTHER WEST...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CNTRL CA COAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH A STRIKE OR TWO OF
LIGHTNING POSSIBLE NEAR THE SAN FRANSISCO BAY/ADJACENT CNTRL CA
COASTAL AREAS.
..LEITMAN/THOMPSON.. 11/16/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 161551
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0951 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
VALID 161630Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COUNTRY TODAY. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SEWD OUT OF THE OZARK
PLATEAU TOWARD THE NRN GULF COAST. MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND SFC
HEATING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE IN THE VICINITY OF A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN AND ERN FL WILL RESULT IN WEAK
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. FARTHER WEST...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CNTRL CA COAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH A STRIKE OR TWO OF
LIGHTNING POSSIBLE NEAR THE SAN FRANSISCO BAY/ADJACENT CNTRL CA
COASTAL AREAS.
..LEITMAN/THOMPSON.. 11/16/2012
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KCHS [161552]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KCHS 161552
LSRCHS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1052 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1005 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 1 WNW CHARLESTON 32.79N 79.95W
11/16/2012 CHARLESTON SC PUBLIC
SALT WATER FLOODING AT THE INTERSECTION OF HAGOOD
AVENUE AND FISHBURNE STREET. ROADS REMAIN PASSABLE.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CHS1200829
$$
JHP
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LSRCHS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1052 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1005 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 1 WNW CHARLESTON 32.79N 79.95W
11/16/2012 CHARLESTON SC PUBLIC
SALT WATER FLOODING AT THE INTERSECTION OF HAGOOD
AVENUE AND FISHBURNE STREET. ROADS REMAIN PASSABLE.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CHS1200829
$$
JHP
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KCHS [161550]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KCHS 161550
LSRCHS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1050 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1010 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 2 SSE CHARLES TOWNE LAN 32.78N 79.97W
11/16/2012 CHARLESTON SC LAW ENFORCEMENT
SALT WATER FLOODING ALONG ST ANDREWS BLVD. THE ROAD
REMAINS PASSABLE.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CHS1200828
$$
JHP
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LSRCHS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1050 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1010 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 2 SSE CHARLES TOWNE LAN 32.78N 79.97W
11/16/2012 CHARLESTON SC LAW ENFORCEMENT
SALT WATER FLOODING ALONG ST ANDREWS BLVD. THE ROAD
REMAINS PASSABLE.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CHS1200828
$$
JHP
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 161222
SWODY1
SPC AC 161220
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0620 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
VALID 161300Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MORNING WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING E-SEWD
ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO FRACTURE...WITH ONE PIECE LIFTING NEWD TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...AND A SECOND PIECE DIGGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AHEAD
OF THE SRN WAVE...A MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
SRN FL PENINSULA MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE
OVER THE ATLANTIC BY EVENING.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE VERY LOW.
..GARNER/MEAD.. 11/16/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 161220
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0620 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
VALID 161300Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MORNING WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING E-SEWD
ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO FRACTURE...WITH ONE PIECE LIFTING NEWD TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...AND A SECOND PIECE DIGGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AHEAD
OF THE SRN WAVE...A MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
SRN FL PENINSULA MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE
OVER THE ATLANTIC BY EVENING.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE VERY LOW.
..GARNER/MEAD.. 11/16/2012
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KIND [161145]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KIND 161145
LSRIND
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
644 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0643 AM DENSE FOG 4 E CARMEL 39.97N 86.03W
11/16/2012 E0.00 MILE HAMILTON IN TRAINED SPOTTER
DENSE FOG WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY.
&&
EVENT NUMBER IND1200832
$$
JH
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LSRIND
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
644 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0643 AM DENSE FOG 4 E CARMEL 39.97N 86.03W
11/16/2012 E0.00 MILE HAMILTON IN TRAINED SPOTTER
DENSE FOG WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY.
&&
EVENT NUMBER IND1200832
$$
JH
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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS48 KWNS 160947
SWOD48
SPC AC 160947
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
PROGRESSIVE AND SEASONALLY LOW-AMPLITUDE PATTERN IS FCST OVER CONUS
THROUGH DAY-4/19TH-20TH...WITH SOME VERSION OF AMPLIFIED ERN-CONUS
TROUGHING DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. SUFFICIENT FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT
FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR MAY TRAVERSE PORTIONS SRN PLAINS DAY-4...ATOP
RETURN-FLOW REGIME EMANATING FROM IMMATURELY MODIFIED GULF
TRAJECTORIES. RESULTING 50S TO NEAR 60 F SFC DEWPOINTS OVER N TX
AND PORTIONS OK MAY SUPPORT TSTMS AND PERHAPS SOME LOW-END SVR RISK.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO MRGL/CONDITIONAL FOR 30% LINE ATTM.
THEREAFTER...IMPORTANT 500-MB SHORTWAVE DETAILS ARE QUITE DIVERSE IN
PROGS. THIS LEADS TO ONE EXTREME OF DEEP SERN CONUS CYCLONE BY
DAY-6/22ND-23RD IN UKMET AND A FEW MREF MEMBERS...AND STG BUT
POSITIVELY TILTED/OPEN-WAVE PERTURBATION IN ECMWF AND MOST OTHER
MREF INTEGRATIONS. IN EITHER EVENT...PERTURBATION ALOFT SHOULD
OUTRUN ANY FAVORABLE PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL RETURN-FLOW MOISTURE...WITH
SVR POTENTIAL TOO LOW FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.
..EDWARDS.. 11/16/2012
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SWOD48
SPC AC 160947
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
PROGRESSIVE AND SEASONALLY LOW-AMPLITUDE PATTERN IS FCST OVER CONUS
THROUGH DAY-4/19TH-20TH...WITH SOME VERSION OF AMPLIFIED ERN-CONUS
TROUGHING DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. SUFFICIENT FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT
FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR MAY TRAVERSE PORTIONS SRN PLAINS DAY-4...ATOP
RETURN-FLOW REGIME EMANATING FROM IMMATURELY MODIFIED GULF
TRAJECTORIES. RESULTING 50S TO NEAR 60 F SFC DEWPOINTS OVER N TX
AND PORTIONS OK MAY SUPPORT TSTMS AND PERHAPS SOME LOW-END SVR RISK.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO MRGL/CONDITIONAL FOR 30% LINE ATTM.
THEREAFTER...IMPORTANT 500-MB SHORTWAVE DETAILS ARE QUITE DIVERSE IN
PROGS. THIS LEADS TO ONE EXTREME OF DEEP SERN CONUS CYCLONE BY
DAY-6/22ND-23RD IN UKMET AND A FEW MREF MEMBERS...AND STG BUT
POSITIVELY TILTED/OPEN-WAVE PERTURBATION IN ECMWF AND MOST OTHER
MREF INTEGRATIONS. IN EITHER EVENT...PERTURBATION ALOFT SHOULD
OUTRUN ANY FAVORABLE PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL RETURN-FLOW MOISTURE...WITH
SVR POTENTIAL TOO LOW FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.
..EDWARDS.. 11/16/2012
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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS03 KWNS 160828
SWODY3
SPC AC 160827
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD/WEAK CYCLONE OVER SERN CONUS DAY-2 SHOULD WEAKEN AND MOVE
EWD/OFFSHORE OVER ATLC THIS PERIOD. FRONTAL-WAVE DEVELOPMENT
OFFSHORE GA/NERN FL WILL LEAD TO LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE REMAINING
QUASISTATIONARY OFFSHORE GA/CAROLINAS...BUT MOVING SEWD AGAIN PAST
SRN FL. AT OPPOSITE CORNER OF CONUS...NWRN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DISCUSSED IN DAY-2 OUTLOOK WILL MOVE INLAND/NEWD AND
DEAMPLIFY...LEAVING BEHIND FIELD OF GENTLY CYCLONIC FLOW JUXTAPOSED
WITH HEIGHT RISES. GEN SWLY FLOW PATTERN WITH EMBEDDED/WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL CHARACTERIZE GREAT PLAINS AND ROCKIES...BECOMING
MORE DIFLUENT AND ZONAL OVER SRN PLAINS AND SW TX.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS TO TRANS-PECOS/BIG BEND REGIONS...
BENEATH SWLY MID-UPPER FLOW...EXPECT LEE TROUGH INTENSIFICATION OVER
HIGH PLAINS AND RELATED PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL WAA TO DEVELOP FROM W TX
TO UPPER MS VALLEY. MOST OF THIS WAA PLUME WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR
SUBSTANTIAL DEEP CONVECTION...EXCEPT FOR EARLY-STAGE/MRGL MOISTURE
RETURN ABOVE SFC AND ACROSS SW TX/SERN NM. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
ENOUGH MOISTENING IN 600-800 MB LAYER DURING 18/15Z-19/06Z TIME
FRAME TO SUPPORT MUCAPE IN 50-150 J/KG RANGE...EXTENDING MRGLLY
ABOVE -20 DEG C THERMAL LEVEL IN SOME LOCALES. AS SUCH...TRANSIENT
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN BROAD PLUME OF MOSTLY LIGHT-MDT
PRECIP. PROSPECTIVE COVERAGE APPEARS MRGL FOR GEN TSTM OUTLOOK.
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE EACH WILL BE TOO SCANT FOR SVR THREAT.
..EDWARDS.. 11/16/2012
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SWODY3
SPC AC 160827
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD/WEAK CYCLONE OVER SERN CONUS DAY-2 SHOULD WEAKEN AND MOVE
EWD/OFFSHORE OVER ATLC THIS PERIOD. FRONTAL-WAVE DEVELOPMENT
OFFSHORE GA/NERN FL WILL LEAD TO LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE REMAINING
QUASISTATIONARY OFFSHORE GA/CAROLINAS...BUT MOVING SEWD AGAIN PAST
SRN FL. AT OPPOSITE CORNER OF CONUS...NWRN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DISCUSSED IN DAY-2 OUTLOOK WILL MOVE INLAND/NEWD AND
DEAMPLIFY...LEAVING BEHIND FIELD OF GENTLY CYCLONIC FLOW JUXTAPOSED
WITH HEIGHT RISES. GEN SWLY FLOW PATTERN WITH EMBEDDED/WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL CHARACTERIZE GREAT PLAINS AND ROCKIES...BECOMING
MORE DIFLUENT AND ZONAL OVER SRN PLAINS AND SW TX.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS TO TRANS-PECOS/BIG BEND REGIONS...
BENEATH SWLY MID-UPPER FLOW...EXPECT LEE TROUGH INTENSIFICATION OVER
HIGH PLAINS AND RELATED PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL WAA TO DEVELOP FROM W TX
TO UPPER MS VALLEY. MOST OF THIS WAA PLUME WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR
SUBSTANTIAL DEEP CONVECTION...EXCEPT FOR EARLY-STAGE/MRGL MOISTURE
RETURN ABOVE SFC AND ACROSS SW TX/SERN NM. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
ENOUGH MOISTENING IN 600-800 MB LAYER DURING 18/15Z-19/06Z TIME
FRAME TO SUPPORT MUCAPE IN 50-150 J/KG RANGE...EXTENDING MRGLLY
ABOVE -20 DEG C THERMAL LEVEL IN SOME LOCALES. AS SUCH...TRANSIENT
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN BROAD PLUME OF MOSTLY LIGHT-MDT
PRECIP. PROSPECTIVE COVERAGE APPEARS MRGL FOR GEN TSTM OUTLOOK.
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE EACH WILL BE TOO SCANT FOR SVR THREAT.
..EDWARDS.. 11/16/2012
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 160635
SWODY2
SPC AC 160634
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS FCST TO CROSS NERN PAC
AND WRN CONUS...WHILE MEAN TROUGHING IS MAINTAINED INVOF W COAST.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER
SWRN AK AND WRN GULF OF AK -- IS FCST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS NERN PAC
DAY-1 AND AMPLIFY. VORTICITY BANNERS ASSOCIATED WITH SRN/WRN
PORTION OF THIS PERTURBATION ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ASHORE PAC NW
OVERNIGHT DAY-2. MEANWHILE...SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN IS FCST TO DEVELOP
DAY-2 OVER ERN CONUS. POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS MOVING SEWD
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES...MID-MS RIVER VALLEY...MO AND OK
ATTM...WHILE WEAKER PERTURBATION IS MOVING ESEWD ACROSS MS...LA AND
ADJOINING NWRN GULF OFFSHORE TX. VORTICITY FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
SRN PORTION OF GREAT LAKES/OK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT FROM NRN
PORTION DAY-1...WHILE LEADING/WEAKER PERTURBATION MOVES ESEWD ACROSS
NRN/ERN GULF. BY 18/00Z...THESE FEATURES WILL BE ROTATING AROUND
BROAD CYCLONE CENTERED OVER SC/GA REGION.
LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONTAL ZONE -- NOW DECELERATING OVER ATLC GULF
STREAM....S FL AND SERN GULF -- IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND WEAKEN
THROUGH DAY-2...WHILE BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW IN SLOPE AND
DIFFUSE IN DEFINITION.
...COASTAL NW...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OFFSHORE
BUT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE ONSHORE AND SLIGHTLY
INLAND BEFORE SUPPORTIVE AIR MASS STABILIZES TOO MUCH IN LOW LEVELS.
LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER COASTAL/OFFSHORE WATERS ARE FCST
TO STEEPEN CONSIDERABLY DURING MID-LATE PERIOD IN STEP WITH APCH OF
MID-UPPER TROUGH...AND AT LEAST MRGLLY DESTABILIZING INFLUENCE OF
RELATED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC-BASED
EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS WITH MLCAPE UP TO 250 J/KG POSSIBLE ATOP
MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER.
...S FL...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY DURING
MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS INLAND AND ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS
SUBSEQUENTLY. RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED BUOYANCY WILL BE OVER STRAITS
AND GULF STREAM...WITH LOW-LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION ONSHORE E COAST
RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO BUOYANCY. MAIN CONCERNS
FOR TSTM COVERAGE AND DURATION WILL BE WEAKNESS OF LOW-LEVEL
LIFT...AND LACK OF MORE ROBUST LAPSE RATES ALOFT.
..EDWARDS.. 11/16/2012
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SWODY2
SPC AC 160634
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2012
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS FCST TO CROSS NERN PAC
AND WRN CONUS...WHILE MEAN TROUGHING IS MAINTAINED INVOF W COAST.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER
SWRN AK AND WRN GULF OF AK -- IS FCST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS NERN PAC
DAY-1 AND AMPLIFY. VORTICITY BANNERS ASSOCIATED WITH SRN/WRN
PORTION OF THIS PERTURBATION ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ASHORE PAC NW
OVERNIGHT DAY-2. MEANWHILE...SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN IS FCST TO DEVELOP
DAY-2 OVER ERN CONUS. POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS MOVING SEWD
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES...MID-MS RIVER VALLEY...MO AND OK
ATTM...WHILE WEAKER PERTURBATION IS MOVING ESEWD ACROSS MS...LA AND
ADJOINING NWRN GULF OFFSHORE TX. VORTICITY FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
SRN PORTION OF GREAT LAKES/OK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT FROM NRN
PORTION DAY-1...WHILE LEADING/WEAKER PERTURBATION MOVES ESEWD ACROSS
NRN/ERN GULF. BY 18/00Z...THESE FEATURES WILL BE ROTATING AROUND
BROAD CYCLONE CENTERED OVER SC/GA REGION.
LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONTAL ZONE -- NOW DECELERATING OVER ATLC GULF
STREAM....S FL AND SERN GULF -- IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND WEAKEN
THROUGH DAY-2...WHILE BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW IN SLOPE AND
DIFFUSE IN DEFINITION.
...COASTAL NW...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OFFSHORE
BUT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE ONSHORE AND SLIGHTLY
INLAND BEFORE SUPPORTIVE AIR MASS STABILIZES TOO MUCH IN LOW LEVELS.
LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER COASTAL/OFFSHORE WATERS ARE FCST
TO STEEPEN CONSIDERABLY DURING MID-LATE PERIOD IN STEP WITH APCH OF
MID-UPPER TROUGH...AND AT LEAST MRGLLY DESTABILIZING INFLUENCE OF
RELATED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC-BASED
EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS WITH MLCAPE UP TO 250 J/KG POSSIBLE ATOP
MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER.
...S FL...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY DURING
MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS INLAND AND ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS
SUBSEQUENTLY. RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED BUOYANCY WILL BE OVER STRAITS
AND GULF STREAM...WITH LOW-LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION ONSHORE E COAST
RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO BUOYANCY. MAIN CONCERNS
FOR TSTM COVERAGE AND DURATION WILL BE WEAKNESS OF LOW-LEVEL
LIFT...AND LACK OF MORE ROBUST LAPSE RATES ALOFT.
..EDWARDS.. 11/16/2012
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 160523
SWODY1
SPC AC 160521
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 PM CST THU NOV 15 2012
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE
ROCKY MTNS TO THE E COAST. SOME MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION OVER SRN FL WHERE THERE WILL BE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER..DRY AIR ALOFT AND LACK OF FORCING WILL LIKELY CAUSE
CONVECTION TO STRUGGLE.
TO THE W...A WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN FROM CA INTO THE GREAT
BASIN...WITH AREAS OF RAIN. HOWEVER...LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
..JEWELL/DISPIGNA.. 11/16/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 160521
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 PM CST THU NOV 15 2012
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE
ROCKY MTNS TO THE E COAST. SOME MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION OVER SRN FL WHERE THERE WILL BE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER..DRY AIR ALOFT AND LACK OF FORCING WILL LIKELY CAUSE
CONVECTION TO STRUGGLE.
TO THE W...A WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN FROM CA INTO THE GREAT
BASIN...WITH AREAS OF RAIN. HOWEVER...LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
..JEWELL/DISPIGNA.. 11/16/2012
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