DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 310031
SWODY1
SPC AC 310028

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2008

VALID 310100Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL CA...

ASCENT AND PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ATTENDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ONSHORE HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL CA. MODEL
POINT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A ZONE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED
SHALLOW INSTABILITY BETWEEN 700 AND 500 MB. ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT TRENDS
SHOULD BE FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH TIME.

...ERN NEB THROUGH SW IA...NERN KS AND NWRN MO...

VORT MAX OVER S CNTRL NEB WILL MOVE SE THROUGH SERN NEB AND NERN KS
TONIGHT. VIGOROUS ASCENT WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
STEEP 700-400 MB LAPSE RATES WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF SPORADIC
ELEVATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN AOB
10%.

...SERN AZ...

INCREASING PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH NEWD ADVECTING PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE AND STEEP SFC-500 MB LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO HIGH
BASED CONVECTION OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN AZ. HOWEVER...LIMITED
INSTABILITY SUGGEST ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10%
COVERAGE THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

..DIAL.. 10/31/2008

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KHNX [302346]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 302346
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
445 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0359 PM TSTM WND GST 6 WSW FISH CAMP 37.45N 119.74W
10/30/2008 E62.00 MPH MARIPOSA CA MESONET

WIND GUST FROM MIAMI RAWS.

&&

$$

BPET

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 301949
SWODY1
SPC AC 301946

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2008

VALID 302000Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID/LWR MO VLY...
COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO DIG SSEWD AND WILL REACH THE
NRN OZARK REGION BY 12Z/31. VIGOROUS ASCENT ASSOCD WITH THIS SYSTEM
WAS CONTRIBUTING TO MOISTENING OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE LEADING TO
WEAK CAPE. SPORADIC TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
TRACK OF THE VORT MAX FROM ERN NEB SEWD INTO ERN KS/WRN MO INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

...CSTL CNTRL CA INCLUDING THE BAY AREA...
TSTMS 75-100 NM WSW-SW OF KSFO WERE ASSOCD WITH A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ERN PAC BASIN LONGWAVE TROUGH.
THE IMPULSE WILL TRAVEL TO THE CNTRL CA CST BY 00Z/31 WITH A
SECONDARY DISTURBANCE QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON ITS HEELS. EXPECT CSTL
TSTMS MAY CLIP PARTS OF THE CSTL REGION INCLUDING THE BAY AREA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATER AT NIGHT. HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE.

...SE AZ MOUNTAINS...
PWAT HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24-HRS AND VSBL SATL INDICATES
CONSIDERABLE TCU/CU OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR/E OF KTUS. WEAK
SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE MOVING NWD INTO SRN AZ MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT ISOLD DEEPER CONVECTION/TSTMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..RACY.. 10/30/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 301729
SWODY2
SPC AC 301726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2008

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
NUMEROUS IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO EJECT ENEWD FROM THE ERN PAC
LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION INTO THE WRN STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. ONE
SUCH DISTURBANCE...LOCATED 31N134W AT 17Z/30...WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES ENEWD INTO NRN/CNTRL CA...THE GRT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. DOWNSTREAM...A COMPACT SUB-TROPICAL SHORTWAVE
WILL DIG SSEWD FROM THE MO VLY/OZARKS TOWARD THE WRN GULF CST.

AT THE SFC...A CDFNT WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE UPR GRTLKS WITH THE
SRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER THE
SRN PLNS. ELSEWHERE...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN APLCNS.

...OZARKS REGION...
GPS SENSORS SUGGEST THAT HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH PWAT
VALUES WERE ADVECTING NWD THROUGH TX TOWARD THE OZARKS REGION AHEAD
OF THE DIGGING PLNS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOW-LVL MOISTURE INCREASING
BENEATH STEEP MIDLVL LAPSE RATES ASSOCD WITH THE IMPULSE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPES AOB 1000 J/KG ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SEWD MOVING
CDFNT FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. TSTM PROBABILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINTAINED AND/OR DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS ON FRIDAY.
WSW LLVL FLOW BENEATH RAPIDLY VEERING PROFILE WILL BOOST VERTICAL
SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLD STRONGER STORMS WITH PSBL SMALL
HAIL...PARTICULARLY FROM SE KS INTO ERN OK. HOWEVER...ATTM...IT
APPEARS THE MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL REMAIN SUB-SVR.

...PAC NW/INTERMOUNTAIN W...
COOL MID-LVL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH COLUMN MOISTENING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT THERMAL BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT WDLY SCTD TSTMS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH PASSAGE. HIGHER TSTM
PROBABILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM PARTS OF NRN NV/ERN ORE
INTO PARTS OF ID DURING PK HEATING.

..RACY.. 10/30/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 301621
SWODY1
SPC AC 301618

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2008

VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

COMPACT UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SD/NEB WILL TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MO VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED
POCKET OF COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. TOWARD 12Z...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER TROUGH WILL IMPINGE ON RICHER LOW LEVEL THETAE AIRMASS...WHICH
MAY ENCOURAGE AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST KS.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL BY THAT TIME...BUT NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

..HART/HURLBUT.. 10/30/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 301244
SWODY1
SPC AC 301242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2008

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NEB TODAY AND ERN/SERN KS LATE TONIGHT...
A COMPACT MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER WRN NEB THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SEWD
TO ERN KS BY EARLY FRIDAY. AN INITIALLY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN CAPPED DURING THE DAY ACROSS NEB...WITH THE ONLY THUNDERSTORM
THREAT CONFINED TO THE ZONE OF MID LEVEL ASCENT AND MOISTENING
IMMEDIATELY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NWD FROM TX TO ERN KS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY /MUCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG/...AND THE COMBINATION OF
LOW-LEVEL WAA AND DCVA MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INVOF SERN KS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

...ELSEWHERE...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PAC COAST TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL CA NWD INTO
WRN ORE/WA. HOWEVER...THE MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STEEPER LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FARTHER S...A WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH INVOF THE NRN GULF
OF CA WILL LIFT NNEWD OVER AZ TODAY. LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
MORE LIMITED N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...THUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.

..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 10/30/2008

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 300847
SWOD48
SPC AC 300846

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2008

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...

LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...DIFFERENCES DO EXIST IN THE
DETAILS. AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AT THE
ONSET OF THE FORECAST /SUN NOV 2ND/ WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EWD INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS ON D5 /MON NOV 3RD/. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR LATE IN D5
INTO D6 /TUE NOV 4TH/ WHEN THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEFORE MOVING INTO THE CNTRL U.S.
ON D7 /WED NOV 5TH/. THE GFS IS SLOWER IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
FEATURE...BUT DOES EVENTUALLY BECOME SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF BY D8 /THU
NOV 6TH/ WITH THE FORMATION OF A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH NEAR OR
JUST E OF THE MS VALLEY.

PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY
LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON
D5 OVER THE PLAINS. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY AND ANY SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE SMALL. THIS RIDGING OVER THE
GULF IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH BY D6. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS AND AN INCREASED THREAT
OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...DIFFERENCES DO EXIST IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...NO
AREA WILL BE DELINEATED.

..MEAD.. 10/30/2008

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 300638
SWODY3
SPC AC 300636

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2008

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...

LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE
DURING THE DAY THREE PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF STRENGTHENING ZONAL UPPER
JET OVER THE CNTRL PACIFIC. MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW OVER THE CNTRL
GULF COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SEWD. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. FARTHER W...A LEE
TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL
SPREAD INLAND INTO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN GREAT
BASIN...SUPPORTING WEAK AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. WHILE MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRATIFORM OR
SHALLOW CONVECTION...A FEW DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..MEAD.. 10/30/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 300542
SWODY2
SPC AC 300541

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2008

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
DAY TWO PERIOD WHILE APPROACHING THE COAST. AS THIS OCCURS...AN
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NEWD FROM THE ORE AND NRN/CNTRL
CA COASTS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SHORT
WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU WILL TRANSLATE SSEWD
TOWARD THE CNTRL GULF COAST.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WITH THE SRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING
THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER THE SRN PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...A BROAD SURFACE
HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN APPALACHIANS.

...OZARK PLATEAU...

A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
COUPLED WITH AN AXIS OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PRECEDING
WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS FRIDAY WITH MUCAPE OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. THIS
DESTABILIZATION IN CONCERT WITH DCVA IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM
MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS MAY FOSTER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS
ACROSS THE REGION...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PERHAPS SOME
SMALL HAIL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW KINEMATIC FIELDS
SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGER DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LAG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS TO THE WEST AND NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

...PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...

ABOVE-MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
PRONOUNCED THERMAL TROUGH WHERE 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -16 TO -20 C
ARE FORECAST. WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BECOME
PARTICULARLY STEEP...THESE COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING /NAMELY IN THE MIDLEVELS/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
POCKETS OF WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW TSTMS EMBEDDED
IN LARGER-SCALE PRECIPITATION SHIELD.

..MEAD.. 10/30/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 300537
SWODY1
SPC AC 300534

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2008

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THURSDAY WITH A COMPACT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS...WHILE A LARGE
SCALE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST.

...CNTRL PLAINS AREA...

ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTING OVER AXIS OF LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN
WILL MAINTAIN A CAPPING INVERSION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ASCENT
AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ATTENDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD
THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...THE MID
LEVEL FORCING IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION ROOTED ABOVE 700 MB. EXPECT
COVERAGE OF ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY TO REMAIN GENERALLY AOB 10%.

...CNTRL CA...

FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD INTO CNTRL
AND NRN CA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MID LEVEL ASCENT WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW HIGH BASED
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MEAGER INSTABILITY THROUGH LAYERS SUPPORTIVE
OF CHARGE SEPARATION SUGGEST ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOULD REMAIN
LESS THAN 10% COVERAGE.

..DIAL.. 10/30/2008

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