SWODY2
SPC AC 301726
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2008
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
NUMEROUS IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO EJECT ENEWD FROM THE ERN PAC
LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION INTO THE WRN STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. ONE
SUCH DISTURBANCE...LOCATED 31N134W AT 17Z/30...WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES ENEWD INTO NRN/CNTRL CA...THE GRT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. DOWNSTREAM...A COMPACT SUB-TROPICAL SHORTWAVE
WILL DIG SSEWD FROM THE MO VLY/OZARKS TOWARD THE WRN GULF CST.
AT THE SFC...A CDFNT WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE UPR GRTLKS WITH THE
SRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER THE
SRN PLNS. ELSEWHERE...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN APLCNS.
...OZARKS REGION...
GPS SENSORS SUGGEST THAT HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH PWAT
VALUES WERE ADVECTING NWD THROUGH TX TOWARD THE OZARKS REGION AHEAD
OF THE DIGGING PLNS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOW-LVL MOISTURE INCREASING
BENEATH STEEP MIDLVL LAPSE RATES ASSOCD WITH THE IMPULSE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPES AOB 1000 J/KG ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SEWD MOVING
CDFNT FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. TSTM PROBABILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINTAINED AND/OR DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS ON FRIDAY.
WSW LLVL FLOW BENEATH RAPIDLY VEERING PROFILE WILL BOOST VERTICAL
SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLD STRONGER STORMS WITH PSBL SMALL
HAIL...PARTICULARLY FROM SE KS INTO ERN OK. HOWEVER...ATTM...IT
APPEARS THE MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL REMAIN SUB-SVR.
...PAC NW/INTERMOUNTAIN W...
COOL MID-LVL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH COLUMN MOISTENING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT THERMAL BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT WDLY SCTD TSTMS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH PASSAGE. HIGHER TSTM
PROBABILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM PARTS OF NRN NV/ERN ORE
INTO PARTS OF ID DURING PK HEATING.
..RACY.. 10/30/2008
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