KMAF [060213]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 060213
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
912 PM CDT SUN OCT 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM HAIL 13 NW IMPERIAL 31.40N 102.85W
10/05/2008 E1.75 INCH WARD TX TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

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KMAF [060212]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 060212
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
912 PM CDT SUN OCT 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0510 PM HAIL 17 N IMPERIAL 31.52N 102.69W
10/05/2008 E1.00 INCH CRANE TX TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

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KMAF [060207]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 060207
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
907 PM CDT SUN OCT 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0640 PM TSTM WND DMG FORT STOCKTON 30.89N 102.89W
10/05/2008 PECOS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

POWER LINES DOWN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF FORT STOCKTON.

&&

$$

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KMAF [060205]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 060205
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
905 PM CDT SUN OCT 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0632 PM TSTM WND DMG FORT STOCKTON 30.89N 102.89W
10/05/2008 PECOS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

MOBILE HOME BLOWN OVER ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF FORT
STOCKTON.

&&

$$

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 911

WWUS20 KWNS 060203
SEL1
SPC WW 060203
NMZ000-TXZ000-060200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 911
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
903 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 911 ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

NEW MEXICO
TEXAS

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KMAF [060203]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 060203
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
903 PM CDT SUN OCT 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0732 PM HAIL 8 NW MIDKIFF 31.71N 101.94W
10/05/2008 E1.25 INCH MIDLAND TX TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL COVERING
ROADWAY 2 MILES EAST OF INTERSECTION FM 1379/3095.

&&

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2310

ACUS11 KWNS 060124
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060124
TXZ000-060300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2310
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0824 PM CDT SUN OCT 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN/W-CENTRAL/NW TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 911...912...

VALID 060124Z - 060300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
911...912...CONTINUES.

EACH WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY SQUALL LINE. THIS ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ACROSS SW AND W-CENTRAL
TX...MOVING INTO NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL THETAE AND
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...WHILE ABSORBING SUPERCELLS INITIALLY TO ITS
E IN HOWARD/GLASSCOCK COUNTIES. SRN PORTION OF THIS LINE PRODUCED
MEASURED 39 KT GUST AT FST BUT WIND DAMAGE NEARBY...AROUND 2322Z.
SPORADIC DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS
LINE...ALONG WITH MRGLLY SVR HAIL. EXPECT CONVECTIVE
TRENDS...OVERALL...WILL PEAK WITHIN NEXT COUPLE HOURS FOLLOWED BY
GRADUAL/DISCONTINUOUS WEAKENING TREND.

MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG
IN 80-100 NM WIDE SWATH AHEAD OF AND PARALLEL TO LINE. CORRIDOR OF
GREATEST BUOYANCY WILL SHRINK ZONALLY AS CONVECTIVE BAND TRANSLATES
EWD FASTER THAN PACE OF DESTABILIZATION NEAR ERN PORTION WW 912.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DESTABILIZATION ABOVE SFC --
ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING/30-40 KT LLJ ALREADY OBSERVED IN SJT
VWP -- WILL KEEP AIR MASS FAVORABLE FOR STG-SVR LINE OF TSTMS FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. OTHER CONTRIBUTING FACTORS WILL BE FORCED ASCENT
ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL AND UP TO 40-45 KT STORM-RELATIVE
INFLOW AT BASE OF EFFECTIVE PARCEL LAYER. WARM SECTOR SBCINH WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING IN STEP WITH DIABATIC
SFC COOLING...RENDERING INFLOW PARCELS MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME.
HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED STABLE LAYER SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY SHALLOW
TO PERMIT STG-SVR GUSTS TO REACH SFC FOR ANOTHER 3-4
HOURS...PARTICULARLY WITH LEWP/BOW FORMATIONS WHERE LOW LEVEL
DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH ALOFT WOULD BE MAXIMIZED GOING INTO SHALLOW
STABLE LAYER.

..EDWARDS.. 10/06/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

30170308 30810205 31670169 33070106 33740027 34389976
33409909 32859902 32239907 30899974 30180050 29550121
29750146 29780202 29770216 29870234 29730235 29730273

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 060054
SWODY1
SPC AC 060051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT SUN OCT 05 2008

VALID 060100Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN HALF OF
TX AND INTO SWRN OK...

...PORTIONS OF THE WRN HALF OF TX INTO SWRN OK...
NNW-SSE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MOVING EWD
ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ATTM...AHEAD OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
EJECTING ENEWD ACROSS NM/FAR W TX. WHILE FAIRLY STRONG/VEERING FLOW
WITH HEIGHT CONTINUES SPREADING ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CONUS...LIMITED
INSTABILITY /GENERALLY AOB 750 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE/ CONTINUES TO
FURTHER DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WHILE CONVECTIVE INTENSITY SHOULD SLOWLY WANE OVERNIGHT...STRONG/
LOCALLY-SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THAT PORTION OF TX FROM E OF MIDLAND
AND LUBBOCK INTO THE ABILENE AND SAN ANGELO AREAS -- AND INTO SWRN
OK. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO REMAIN
POSSIBLE...CONTINUED BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING SHOULD SUPPORT A
TRANSITION TOWARD HAIL AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...BEFORE THE
OVERALL THREAT WANES BELOW SLIGHT RISK THRESHOLDS LATER THIS
EVENING.

..GOSS.. 10/06/2008

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 912

WWUS20 KWNS 060005
SEL2
SPC WW 060005
TXZ000-060600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 912
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
705 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 705 PM UNTIL
100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ABILENE TEXAS TO 55 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF JUNCTION TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 911...

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND INTENSIFYING SQUALL LINE
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD THE SJT AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...POSING A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY
BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING AS THEY MOVE INTO AN INCREASING
STABLE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.

...HART

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2309

ACUS11 KWNS 052302
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052301
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-060100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2309
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0601 PM CDT SUN OCT 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W/NW TX...SERN TX PANHANDLE...SWRN OK.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 911...

VALID 052301Z - 060100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 911
CONTINUES.

CONTINUE WW AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE OVER FAR W
TX...INITIALLY NEAR INK-MRF AXIS AT 2230Z. ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE
REQUIRED WITHIN NEXT 2-3 HOURS AS NARROW PLUME OF FAVORABLE
SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHIFTS E OF PRESENT WW...AND LLJ INTENSIFIES
ACROSS W-CENTRAL TX.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS
MARTIN...SERN ANDREWS AND NWRN ECTOR COUNTY...EXTENDING INTO SFC LOW
NW MAF. MOST FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN S OF THIS
BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH ELEVATED WAA/BUOYANCY AND FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAY SUPPORT SOME HAIL POTENTIAL WITH TSTMS JUST TO ITS N.
MOST FAVORABLE KINEMATIC PROFILES...WITH 50 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR...WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER PECOS
VALLEY REGIONS...AHEAD OF FRONTAL SQUALL LINE. 45 KT GUST WAS
MEASURED AT PEQ AT 2225Z...AND STG-SVR GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
WITH THAT LINE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS UNTIL FOREGOING BOUNDARY LAYER
DIABATICALLY STABILIZES. THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN GREATEST
WITH RELATIVELY DISCRETE STORMS...INCLUDING PERSISTENT SUPERCELL
MOVING ENEWD FROM CRANE TOWARD NWRN UPTON/SRN MIDLAND COUNTIES.

FARTHER NE..LINE OF TSTMS HAS BEEN ORGANIZING SLOWLY ACROSS SERN
PANHANDLE SWD INTO DICKENS COUNTY IN NERN PORTION WW. ACTIVITY IS
MOVING INTO RAIN-STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL WAA
AND WEAK SFC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST TEMPORARY
INTENSIFICATION -- PARTICULARLY ON SRN END WHERE OUTFLOW AIR FROM
EARLIER ACTIVITY IS MOST EASILY MIXED/MODIFIED. NARROW CORRIDOR OF
STRONGER HEATING AND AT LEAST MRGLLY FAVORABLE MOISTURE CORRESPONDS
TO SFC THETAE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR CDS SSWWD...SUPPORTING
500-800 J/KG MLCAPE IN RUC FCST SOUNDINGS...WHICH ALSO SHOW BACKING
WINDS WITH HEIGHT IN MIDLEVELS SUITABLE FOR MAINTAINING LARGELY
LINEAR ORGANIZATION. LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES WITH STG-SVR GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH MRGL SVR HAIL.

..EDWARDS.. 10/05/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

30080409 30890344 32010312 33190218 33630117 34140082
34870091 35470040 35619963 34689926 32459992 30880135
30270349

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KMAF [052239]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 052239
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
539 PM CDT SUN OCT 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM HAIL 16 NW CRANE 31.56N 102.54W
10/05/2008 E0.88 INCH CRANE TX TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

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KMAF [052202]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 052202
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
501 PM CDT SUN OCT 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0437 PM HAIL 6 N GRANDFALLS 31.43N 102.85W
10/05/2008 E1.25 INCH WARD TX BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

$$

RBARNES

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 051948
SWODY1
SPC AC 051945

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT SUN OCT 05 2008

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
FAR SERN NM...PARTS OF WRN TX INTO FAR SWRN OK...

...SRN PLAINS...

POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING THROUGH NM WILL CONTINUE EWD
INTO WRN PARTS OF TX/OK LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A ZONE OF
CONCENTRATED HEIGHT FALLS AND 45-55 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...WHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...AN ATTENDANT
PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NM INTO WRN TX.

FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION HAVE LIMITED DAYTIME
HEATING AND RESULTANT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION SO FAR TODAY OVER
MUCH OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND PNHDL REGIONS. FARTHER S AND
E...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 F. WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S AND RELATIVELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 19Z SURFACE PRESSURE TENDENCIES SUGGEST THAT
THE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS SHIFTING FROM CNTRL
INTO ERN NM...JUST TO THE W OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AXIS. ONGOING
TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS WRN TX AS THIS STRONGER FORCING
EVENTUALLY SPREADS EWD INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

DESPITE A NOTABLE VEERING-BACKING PATTERN THROUGH THE LOWEST 2-3 KM
AGL ON AMA/LBB/MAF VADS...OVERALL BULK SHEAR IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS AND BOWS. SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARDS. HOWEVER...A TORNADO OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT MAY DEVELOP. THE
THREAT FOR SOME HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT EWD INTO PARTS OF WRN OK AND NWRN TX.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...SEE MCD 2308 AND WW 911.

..MEAD.. 10/05/2008

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KVEF [051918]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KVEF 051918
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1218 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0451 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SQUAW SPRINGS RAWS 35.37N 117.57W
10/03/2008 M45.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

SQUAW SPRINGS RAWS RECORDED A PEAK GUST OF 45 MPH AT 0451
PM PDT.

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E INDEPENDENCE 36.79N 118.17W
10/04/2008 M41.00 MPH INYO CA MESONET

SIERRA ROTORS SITE 4 RECORDED A WIND GUST OF 41 MPH.

0240 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 WSW INDEPENDENCE 36.78N 118.24W
10/04/2008 M41.00 MPH INYO CA MESONET

SIERRA ROTORS SITE 2 MEASURED A WIND GUST AT 41 MPH
AROUND 0240 PM.

0306 PM NON-TSTM WND GST DAGGETT 34.86N 116.88W
10/04/2008 E49.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA ASOS

BARSTOW-DAGGETT AIRPORT HAS BEEN RECORDING WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 40 MPH AND POOR VISBILITY SINCE ABOUT 0100 PDT.
THE PEAK WIND WAS 51 MPH AND WAS MEASURED AT 435 PM PDT.

0414 PM NON-TSTM WND GST OPAL MOUNTAIN RAWS 35.15N 117.18W
10/04/2008 M54.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

OPAL MOUNTAIN RAWS HAS BEEN RECORDING WIND GUSTS AROUND
40 MPH AND GREATER SINCE ABOUT 1200 PDT THIS AFTERNOON.
THE PEAK WIND GUST WAS MEASURED AT 54 MPH AT 0414 PDT.

0430 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WSW INDEPENDENCE 36.77N 118.28W
10/04/2008 M60.00 MPH INYO CA MESONET

SIERRA ROTORS SITE 1 MEASURED A GUST OF 60 MPH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

0600 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NW PANACA 37.81N 114.41W
10/04/2008 M0.51 INCH LINCOLN NV TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER IN PANACA REPORTED 0.51 INCHES OF RAIN
FALLING BETWEEN 0600PM AND 0630PM. SPOTTER ALSO REPORTED
TEMPERATURE DROP OF 25 DEGREES AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&
SUMMARY OF EVENTS FROM THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT COLD SEASON STORM
SYSTEM.
$$

LINDAMAN/CTS

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 911

WWUS20 KWNS 051913
SEL1
SPC WW 051913
NMZ000-TXZ000-060200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 911
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
WEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF MARFA TEXAS TO 75 MILES NORTHEAST OF BIG SPRING
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EWD INTO FAR W
TX AND SE NM AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS W
CENTRAL TX AND SE NM IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...WHERE SURFACE
HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS AND DEWPOINTS OF 56-60 F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE THE HAIL THREAT...WHILE
CONVECTION SHOULD EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN EXTENSIVE N-S BAND
BY THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS. ANY TORNADO THREAT SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF/ISOLATED
GIVEN ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.

...THOMPSON

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2308

ACUS11 KWNS 051812
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051811
TXZ000-NMZ000-052015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2308
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CDT SUN OCT 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...W TX AND EXTREME SE NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 051811Z - 052015Z

TSTMS WILL INCREASE OVER MOST OF SE NM/W TX THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH RISKS FOR LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES. WW WILL
BE PSBL OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTN.

A STRONG MID-LVL WAVE APPEARS TO BE TURNING E IN WRN NM EARLY THIS
AFTN WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING INTO ERN
NM AND FAR W TX. TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ALONG THE ASSOCD COLD
FRONT IN SCNTRL NM AND WITHIN THE PREFRONTAL WARM CONVEYOR ACROSS
FAR SE NM AND THE TX PNHDL.

LARGE CANOPY OF CLOUDS/PCPN HAVE MITIGATED HEATING GENERALLY N OF
ROUTE 180 TODAY...WITH STRONGER LOW-LVL WARMING ALONG/S OF
INTERSTATE 20 WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LWR-MID 70S AS OF
17Z. THOUGH THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR LOW-LVL MOISTURE TO MIX
OUT...CONTINUED MODEST HEATING SHOULD BOOST MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG
OVER THE TRANSPECOS...SERN PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG COUNTRY REGIONS BY
MID-AFTN.

AS THE MID-LVL WAVE TRANSLATES EWD...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY FROM THE TX PNHDL SWWD INTO SE NM...THEN SPREAD AND/OR
DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE REMAINDER OF SW/WCNTRL TX BY LATE AFTN.
BACKING MID-LVL WIND PROFILE...ESPECIALLY IN THE TX PNHDL/S PLAINS
WILL FAVOR EMBEDDED...MODEST INTENSITY LINE SEGMENTS WITHIN A MORE
GENERAL SHOWER AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY POSE RISKS FOR ISOLD
LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

THE HIGHEST SVR POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...WILL EVOLVE FARTHER S FROM
ROUGHLY SEMINOLE-GUTHRIE SWD WHERE MODEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND MORE
ROBUST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WSW MID-LVL WINDS OF 50-55 KTS WILL
BOOST BULK SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR WDLY SCTD SUPERCELLS MIXED WITH
LINEAR SEGMENTS. LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SVR THREATS...BUT A BRIEF ISOLD TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
MATURING...MORE DISCRETE STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN/CNTRL TRANSPECOS REGION THROUGH LATE AFTN.

..RACY.. 10/05/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

29970297 30740338 31690378 32900499 34010440 34480256
35230173 35050051 33640030 32400037 31260068 29750244

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 051638
SWODY2
SPC AC 051636

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 AM CDT SUN OCT 05 2008

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH...COMPOSED OF POLAR AND LOWER-LATITUDE BRANCHES OF
WESTERLIES...WILL PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PART OF THE NATION.
DESPITE WEAKENING...THE SRN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY
REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY TWO
PERIOD. IN THE LOW LEVELS...ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL CONCURRENTLY
WEAKEN WHILE DEVELOPING NNEWD THROUGH CNTRL KS.
MEANWHILE...TRAILING PACIFIC FRONT WILL PROGRESS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN
HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO ERN PARTS OF KS/OK/TX BY TUESDAY MORNING.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING
WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT FROM WRN OR CNTRL OK SSWWD INTO
CNTRL TX. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE 60S...PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS AND
WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH
MLCAPE GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW 500-1000 J/KG. NONETHELESS...DCVA
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
ACTIVE TSTMS ACROSS PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR MONDAY FROM CNTRL/ERN
PORTIONS OF KS SWD INTO CNTRL/ERN TX.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SLY LLJ WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE
NWD ACROSS ERN PARTS OF KS/OK AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE LOWER MO
VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU AS MID AND HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS ROUND
TROUGH BASE. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS OVER SERN KS AND ERN OK DURING THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT WILL LARGELY BE DEPENDANT ON
THE DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION THAT OCCURS.

IN THE WAKE OF INITIAL CONVECTIVE BAND...RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND SOME STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES WITHIN THERMAL AXIS OF
UPPER TROUGH MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL...DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL KS INTO WRN/CNTRL OK. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK OWING TO PROXIMITY OF TROUGH AXIS.
NONETHELESS...A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. FINALLY...OTHER STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG SRN FRINGE OF MORE PERSISTENT
CLOUD/PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER PARTS OF ERN TX. VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION...THOUGH THE WEAK
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY TEND TO LIMIT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN DEGREE OF AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION...ONLY LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL BE
MAINTAINED IN THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER...SHOULD LATER DATA SUGGEST
GREATER INSTABILITY...PARTS OF THE REGION MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO
A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK.

..MEAD.. 10/05/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 051246
SWODY1
SPC AC 051243

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CDT SUN OCT 05 2008

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
STRONGEST ENERGY EVIDENT THIS MORNING MOVING ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES
WILL AMPLIFY WRN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH AND SHIFT TROUGH EWD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP ASCENT
WILL SUSTAIN LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...INHIBITING INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY AS 45-55
KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET EJECTS ACROSS NWRN TX INTO WRN OK...WITH
SECONDARY SSWLY SPEED MAX DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN INTO N-CENTRAL TX
OVERNIGHT.

ONGOING AREA OF MOIST CONVECTION/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL/NWRN TX THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD MID LEVEL SPEED MAX. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LEVELS AS SURFACE
HEATING/INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED. APPEARS MORE ROBUST
DEVELOPMENT WILL AWAIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER SERN NM/FAR WRN TX
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE LEE TROUGH. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F WITHIN SSELY UPSLOPE
FLOW...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG AS
TEMPS CLIMB THROUGH THE MID 70S BY 21Z. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BUILD UPSCALE INTO A LARGER
CLUSTER/MCS AS DEEP ASCENT OVERSPREADS SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
OVERWHELM LEE TROUGH AND PUSH EWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING
LATTER HALF OF PERIOD. LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO OR TWO COULD DEVELOP WITH MORE SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK AS STORMS LOSE FEED OF MODEST
INSTABILITY.

..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 10/05/2008

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 050814
SWOD48
SPC AC 050814

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 AM CDT SUN OCT 05 2008

VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...

DAY 4-5 MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF UPPER
LOW FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE SERN
STATES WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AS WELL AS FAIRLY
LARGE SPREADS AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

BY DAY 5 UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO PROGRESSIVE ZONAL WITH A BELT
OF STRONG WLYS OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WELL REMOVED FROM
RESERVOIR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

DAY 6 AND BEYOND MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE UPPER
PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY WITH LARGE SPREAD AMONG MREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S.
WHILE THE GFS AMPLIFIES THIS FEATURE MUCH FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY REGION.

..DIAL.. 10/05/2008

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 050727
SWODY3
SPC AC 050725

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT SUN OCT 05 2008

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY...BECOMING
CUTOFF FROM MAIN BRANCH OF POLAR WLYS. MODELS DIFFER ON EVOLUTION
AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WITH DISPERSIVE SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
EARLY TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM WRN PARTS OF THE MID MS
VALLEY SWD THROUGH ERN AND S TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY REGIONS...

NARROW AXIS OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH 60S DEWPOINTS WILL
HAVE ADVECTED THROUGH THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY REGION. CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WITHIN THIS ZONE WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
WEAK CAPPING WILL EXIST DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH. ACTIVITY WILL
BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. SOMEWHAT
GREATER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF LA WHERE RICHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING IS MORE LIKELY...BUT
EVEN IN THIS REGION WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB
1000 J/KG. THE STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.
A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY OVER A PORTION OF
THE LOWER MS VALLEY...BUT THE ANTICIPATED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

..DIAL.. 10/05/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 050552
SWODY2
SPC AC 050550

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT SUN OCT 05 2008

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS
WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE UPPER TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST AND SE THROUGH THE
CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM ERN PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS SWD THROUGH CNTRL OK INTO CNTRL AND SW TX.

...SRN PLAINS THROUGH MID MS VALLEY REGION...

AXIS OF RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RESIDING OVER THE WRN GULF
WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS WARM SECTOR WITH LOW 60S
DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS OK AND MID TO UPPER 60S FARTHER S INTO TX.
MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER JET MAX WILL EJECT NEWD ALONG ERN
PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH INTO ERN KS AND WRN MO DURING THE DAY.
THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET GRADUALLY LIFTING NWD
THROUGH ERN KS AND WRN PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AWAY FROM MOIST
AXIS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT
FROM PARTS OF NRN TX THROUGH OK AND KS MONDAY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY
DEVELOP EAST INTO THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY BY EVENING. THESE
STORMS WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENT
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL.

OPPORTUNITY FOR DESTABILIZATION WILL EXIST IN WAKE OF INITIAL MCS
FROM CNTRL OK THROUGH CNTRL KS WHERE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH THERMAL TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD RESIDUAL MOIST AXIS.
BULK SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER WITH NWD EXTENT INTO KS DUE TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW CENTER...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST
MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN OK.
IF LOW CLOUDS CAN MIX OUT PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING...THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A LARGE HAIL THREAT AS
ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT.

MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAKER WITH SWD EXTENT INTO
N CNTRL TX DUE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. DESPITE RICHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN
MARGINAL DUE IN LARGE PART TO POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS EARLY
OR ONGOING CONVECTION. BULK SHEAR WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR
A THREAT OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS ACROSS N CNTRL TX ALONG SRN PERIPHERY
OF UPPER TROUGH.

LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING EVOLUTION OF ONGOING MCS AND
SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDES INTRODUCING MORE THAN 5% SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A PORTION OF THIS REGION MAY
NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS ONCE THE
UNCERTAINTIES HAVE BEEN MITIGATED.

..DIAL.. 10/05/2008

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KVEF [050520]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 050520
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1020 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0451 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SQUAW SPRINGS RAWS 35.37N 117.57W
10/03/2008 M45 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

SQUAW SPRINGS RAWS RECORDED A PEAK GUST OF 45 MPH AT 0451
PM PDT.

&&

$$

LINDAMAN

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KMFR [050454]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 050454
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
954 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 ESE COOS BAY 43.33N 124.12W
10/04/2008 M2.33 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

$$

DW

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 050453
SWODY1
SPC AC 050450

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CDT SAT OCT 04 2008

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO
NW TX AND SW OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...DEEP SYNOPTIC TROUGH FCST TO CONTINUE SHIFTING
EWD ACROSS WRN CONUS. STG EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- INITIALLY
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND VWP/RAOB DATA OVER SERN NV
AND LOWER CO RIVER REGION -- IS FCST TO MOVE ESEWD THEN EWD ACROSS
AZ/NM...REACHING SRN HIGH PLAINS BY END OF PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...WEAKER/SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NRN/ERN UT
AND WRN WY WILL EJECT NNEWD ACROSS ERN WY AND ERN MT...AS NEARLY
ZONAL SPEED MAX ON BACK SIDE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH SPREADS EWD
OVER PACIFIC NW.

AT SFC...DISCRETE LOW IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM AREA OF LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THEN MOVE NEWD ACROSS
SD...WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD OVER CENTRAL/ERN CO...AND WARM
FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS SD/IA. NEARLY OVERLAID LEE TROUGH AND
PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND SSWWD FROM ERN CO ACROSS ERN NM BY
6/00Z...MOVING EWD TO WRN KS...TX/OK PANHANDLES AND PERMIAN BASIN
REGION BY END OF PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ILL-DEFINED IN SOME
AREAS BECAUSE OF CONVECTIVE PROCESSES NEARBY AND TO ITS E...OVER SRN
HIGH PLAINS.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER PECOS VALLEY...
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE FCST ACROSS THIS REGION IN AT LEAST TWO
PRIMARY TEMPORAL REGIMES THAT MAY OVERLAP ENOUGH SPATIALLY TO COVER
ONE OUTLOOK AREA.

1. AREA OF TSTMS IS POSSIBLE EARLY IN PERIOD...PERHAPS BEGINNING
BEFORE 5/12Z...ACROSS TX PANHANDLE...MOVING EWD AND
EXPANDING/BACKBUILDING SWD DURING DAY TOWARD PROGRESSIVELY MORE
UNSTABLE SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE PARCELS WHERE AIR MASS IS MORE STRONGLY
HEATED DIABATICALLY. AS MID/UPPER TROUGH APCHS AND HEIGHT GRADIENT
ALOFT INCREASES...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILE LIKEWISE SHOULD
STRENGTHEN IN SUPPORT OF SVR POTENTIAL. BY 05/21Z...45-50 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES ARE POSSIBLE...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR
STORM ROTATION.

HOWEVER...LIMITING FACTORS FOR SVR THREAT INVOLVE INSTABILITY AND
PROBABLE MESSY/CLUSTERED STORM MODES. WITH STRONGEST COOLING ALOFT
STILL DISPLACED W OF THIS ACTIVITY FOR MOST OR ALL
AFTERNOON...BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED SUBSTANTIALLY BY WEAK LAPSE
RATES...AND ALSO BY LACK OF MORE ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.
UPSTREAM BRO/CRP/DRT RAOBS FROM 5/00Z SUGGEST NWWD ADVECTION OF SFC
MOISTURE EARLY IN PERIOD MAY BE OFFSET BY VERTICAL MIXING OVER
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND LOWER PECOS VALLEY REGIONS...WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY 50S F IN PROSPECTIVE INFLOW REGION FOR ACTIVITY.
ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED WRF-KF SOUNDINGS YIELD MLCAPES AROUND 500-800
J/KG AWAY FROM CONVECTION...BUT ALSO WEAK MLCINH IN DISFAVOR OF
SUSTAINED DISCRETE STORM MODE.

2. SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR FARTHER W DURING MID-LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS ERN NM AND TRANS-PECOS REGION OF
W TX...MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN DURING
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE MOVING
INTO AIR MASS SEEMINGLY STABILIZED TO GREAT EXTENT BY EARLIER
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL WAA AND MIDLEVEL
ASCENT/COOLING MAY ALLOW SUFFICIENT RECOVERY FOR ORGANIZED SVR
POTENTIAL...AMONG SHEAR PROFILES STILL SUITABLE FOR SVR.

ONE OR TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF TSTMS SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS CAPROCK AND
WRN LOW PLAINS OVERNIGHT...SVR POTENTIAL BECOMING MORE MRGL
OVERNIGHT AS TSTMS MOVE INTO PROGRESSIVELY LESS UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

..EDWARDS/CROSBIE.. 10/05/2008

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