SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060124
TXZ000-060300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2310
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0824 PM CDT SUN OCT 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN/W-CENTRAL/NW TX.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 911...912...
VALID 060124Z - 060300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
911...912...CONTINUES.
EACH WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY SQUALL LINE. THIS ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ACROSS SW AND W-CENTRAL
TX...MOVING INTO NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL THETAE AND
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...WHILE ABSORBING SUPERCELLS INITIALLY TO ITS
E IN HOWARD/GLASSCOCK COUNTIES. SRN PORTION OF THIS LINE PRODUCED
MEASURED 39 KT GUST AT FST BUT WIND DAMAGE NEARBY...AROUND 2322Z.
SPORADIC DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS
LINE...ALONG WITH MRGLLY SVR HAIL. EXPECT CONVECTIVE
TRENDS...OVERALL...WILL PEAK WITHIN NEXT COUPLE HOURS FOLLOWED BY
GRADUAL/DISCONTINUOUS WEAKENING TREND.
MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG
IN 80-100 NM WIDE SWATH AHEAD OF AND PARALLEL TO LINE. CORRIDOR OF
GREATEST BUOYANCY WILL SHRINK ZONALLY AS CONVECTIVE BAND TRANSLATES
EWD FASTER THAN PACE OF DESTABILIZATION NEAR ERN PORTION WW 912.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DESTABILIZATION ABOVE SFC --
ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING/30-40 KT LLJ ALREADY OBSERVED IN SJT
VWP -- WILL KEEP AIR MASS FAVORABLE FOR STG-SVR LINE OF TSTMS FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. OTHER CONTRIBUTING FACTORS WILL BE FORCED ASCENT
ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL AND UP TO 40-45 KT STORM-RELATIVE
INFLOW AT BASE OF EFFECTIVE PARCEL LAYER. WARM SECTOR SBCINH WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING IN STEP WITH DIABATIC
SFC COOLING...RENDERING INFLOW PARCELS MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME.
HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED STABLE LAYER SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY SHALLOW
TO PERMIT STG-SVR GUSTS TO REACH SFC FOR ANOTHER 3-4
HOURS...PARTICULARLY WITH LEWP/BOW FORMATIONS WHERE LOW LEVEL
DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH ALOFT WOULD BE MAXIMIZED GOING INTO SHALLOW
STABLE LAYER.
..EDWARDS.. 10/06/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
30170308 30810205 31670169 33070106 33740027 34389976
33409909 32859902 32239907 30899974 30180050 29550121
29750146 29780202 29770216 29870234 29730235 29730273
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