ACUS01 KWNS 141945
SWODY1
SPC AC 141944
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT THU OCT 14 2010
VALID 142000Z - 151200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NC OUTER BANKS TO SC...
MID-AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
THE NRN EXTENT OF A COLD FRONT HAD MOVED E THROUGH MUCH OF THE NC
OUTER BANKS AND OFFSHORE. GIVEN THIS TREND AND STRONGER FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALSO SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND/OR EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE
FRONT...SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES AND CATEGORICAL SLIGHT HAVE
BEEN REMOVED FROM THE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
FARTHER SW...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED TSTMS HAD
FORMED ALONG THE TRAILING EXTENT OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM SERN NC
INTO CENTRAL SC. VEERED...PRE-FRONTAL WINDS ARE LIMITING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THIS FACTOR COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
500-700 J PER KG/ IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE OF
TSTMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WEAKER EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR ACROSS SC WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF
THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED HAIL EVENT PRIOR TO
THE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE...THE SHORT-LIVED TEMPORAL POTENTIAL AND
LIMITED ORGANIZATIONAL THREAT PRECLUDES THE NEED TO INCLUDE LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS ERN SC.
...UPPER GREAT LAKES...
GIVEN ONGOING CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
ATTENDANT TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION...
THE GENERAL TSTM LINE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO INCLUDE THE REST OF ERN
UPPER MI AND FAR NERN LOWER MI.
..PETERS.. 10/14/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2010/
...ERN NC/EXTREME SERN VA...
UPPER TROUGH...SITUATED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...WILL SHIFT ENEWD
AND GRADUALLY BECOME NEGATIVELY TITLED...IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG JET
MAX AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SHIFTING SEWD FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES
INTO THE OH VALLEY. A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE APPALACHIANS TROUGH
WAS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS ERN VA/NC AT MID MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE EWD
OFFSHORE BY MID AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED ...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED...BUT SHOULD
OCCUR OFFSHORE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH PRE-MENTIONED FEATURES EXTENDED FROM NEAR ORF
TO SOUTH OF GSB AT 1530Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE
COAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. DESPITE LOWER TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS
LOCATED AHEAD OF THE STORMS...MLCAPES WILL BE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG
DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIMITING
STRONGER HEATING. WHILE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM LINES/CELLS....WEAK AND VEERED LOW LEVEL WINDS ALONG
WITH THE POOR LAPSE RATES SUGGEST LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND A
FEW HAILSTONES WITH DIAMETERS FROM .5 TO 1 INCH.
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