SWODY1
SPC AC 140443
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2010
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME NERN NC NWD INTO
SRN DELMARVA REGION...
...SYNOPSIS...
GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVE-TILT AND CLOSE INTO A LARGE CYCLONE OVER THE NERN STATES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
...NC TO DELMARVA...
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN THURSDAY MORNING WITH SFC LOW TRACKING
INTO TIDEWATER VA AND DELMARVA REGION 18-00Z THEN OFFSHORE LONG
ISLAND OVERNIGHT. SMALL WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPES TO 500
J/KG WILL EVOLVE OVER NE NC...SE VA AND SRN DELMARVA REGION DURING
LATE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON AS GULF STREAM MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED
WWD.
MAGNITUDE OF PVA AND SUFFICIENT BUT MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD SFC-BASED
STORMS...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND AT POINTS SWD
ALONG THE SURGING COLD FRONT. DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS AND LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES ARE FCST TO BE QUITE STRONG FROM NERN NC INTO ERN VA
AND SRN MD/DE. PRIMARY STORM MODE SHOULD EVOLVE INTO SHORT-LINE
SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLD TORNADOES. THE RISK FOR SVR STORMS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY
AFTER DARK.
..RACY/GRAMS.. 10/14/2010
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