DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 030035
SWODY1
SPC AC 030033

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 PM CDT SUN OCT 02 2011

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NRN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING BEFORE THIS POTENTIAL DIMINISHES DUE TO
STABILIZATION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PERSIST IN THE ROCKIES AND
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS EVENING. NONE OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CONUS IS EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS TONIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 10/03/2011

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KTWC [022028]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTWC 022028
LSRTWC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
127 PM MST SUN OCT 02 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0120 PM FLASH FLOOD PARADISE 32.00N 109.15W
10/02/2011 COCHISE AZ PUBLIC

EAST TURKEY CREEK NEAR PARADISE FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1100128

$$

MINNICK

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KTWC [022002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTWC 022002
LSRTWC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
102 PM MST SUN OCT 02 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM HAIL WHETSTONE 31.70N 110.35W
10/02/2011 E0.75 INCH COCHISE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1100127

$$

MINNICK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021958
SWODY1
SPC AC 021956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT SUN OCT 02 2011

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
FEW CHANGES TO THE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...CONSULT DISCUSSION
BELOW. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG/GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN A MODEST BUOYANCY/WELL-MIXED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MT AND/OR NORTHERN WY. HOWEVER...ANY SUCH THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LOCALIZED/MARGINAL IN NATURE.

..GUYER.. 10/02/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2011/

...SYNOPSIS/FCST...
DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLC STATES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC CDFNT TIED TO THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED WELL E
OVER THE ATLC AND SWD INTO THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO...SHUNTING THE
PRIMARY LLVL THETA-E AXIS AWAY FROM LAND. NUMEROUS PV FILAMENTS
ROTATING AROUND THE UPR LOW WILL PERIODICALLY ENHANCE THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT WRAPPING ACROSS CNTRL/NRN NEW ENGLAND. FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT MRGL MUCAPE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR PSBL ISOLD NON-SVR TSTMS
THIS AFTN/TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE...SCTD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THESE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
LEADING BAND OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM ERN PAC TROUGH AND
SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCES EJECTING ENE FROM NW MEX AND THE SWRN
STATES. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH THE
STORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER PARTS OF SWRN MT/WRN WY AMIDST STRONGER
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT THE OVERALL SVR THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW OWING
TO MEAGER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.

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KMFR [021952]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 021952
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1251 PM PDT SUN OCT 02 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SE HARBOR 42.00N 124.20W
10/02/2011 M1.45 INCH DEL NORTE CA TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOURS ENDING AT 930 AM.

&&

$$

GLASER

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 021719
SWODY2
SPC AC 021717

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT SUN OCT 02 2011

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY/BEGIN TO SPLIT AS IT DIGS ALONG THE WEST
COAST ON MONDAY...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PREVALENT OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND A CLOSED/DEEP UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

WHILE SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS
WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN STATES INCLUDING
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS AREA AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
ADDITIONALLY...WEAK BUOYANCY/EXIT REGION OF THE EASTERN CONUS
CYCLONE-ASSOCIATED UPPER JET COULD YIELD ISOLATED/EMBEDDED TSTMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SOUTHEAST NY.

..GUYER.. 10/02/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021623
SWODY1
SPC AC 021621

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2011

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FCST...
DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLC STATES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC CDFNT TIED TO THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED WELL E
OVER THE ATLC AND SWD INTO THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO...SHUNTING THE
PRIMARY LLVL THETA-E AXIS AWAY FROM LAND. NUMEROUS PV FILAMENTS
ROTATING AROUND THE UPR LOW WILL PERIODICALLY ENHANCE THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT WRAPPING ACROSS CNTRL/NRN NEW ENGLAND. FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT MRGL MUCAPE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR PSBL ISOLD NON-SVR TSTMS
THIS AFTN/TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE...SCTD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THESE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
LEADING BAND OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM ERN PAC TROUGH AND
SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCES EJECTING ENE FROM NW MEX AND THE SWRN
STATES. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH THE
STORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER PARTS OF SWRN MT/WRN WY AMIDST STRONGER
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT THE OVERALL SVR THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW OWING
TO MEAGER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.

..RACY/COHEN.. 10/02/2011

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KMFR [021508]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 021508
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
808 AM PDT SUN OCT 02 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0803 AM HEAVY RAIN NE BROOKINGS 42.06N 124.29W
10/02/2011 M1.55 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

IN 12 HOURS.

&&

$$

STOCKTON

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021243
SWODY1
SPC AC 021241

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2011

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE PRIMARY SURFACE
COLD FRONT HAS SURGED WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...BUT COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND. VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS.

OTHER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
COULD OCCUR WITH THE STORMS OVER PARTS OF MT/WY...BUT THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE WEST TODAY IS LOW.

..HART/JIRAK.. 10/02/2011

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 020846
SWOD48
SPC AC 020846

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2011

VALID 051200Z - 101200Z

...POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A REGIONAL SVR RISK AREA...

WITHIN A SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW... MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE WILL DIG INTO SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE
EVOLUTION OF A CLOSED LOW BY THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WORK WEEK.
HOWEVER...A BLOCKING MID-LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH CENTER DOWNSTREAM
...ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...APPEARS LIKELY
TO IMPEDE A CONTINUING EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
PROGRESSING ACROSS CANADA...WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM...THE BULK OF
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW/TROUGH MAY GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES...AROUND THE RIDGE...INTO CANADA LATE
THIS COMING WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...BUT LOW-LEVEL RIDGING ENCOMPASSING
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN U.S. APPEARS LIKELY TO CONFINE
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO THE HIGHER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WHILE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
STORMS MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD...THE POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT STILL APPEARS LOW.

..KERR.. 10/02/2011

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 020722
SWODY3
SPC AC 020721

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2011

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE REMNANTS OF A SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE INLAND DURING THIS PERIOD...THE SOUTHERN PORTION EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU...THE NORTHERN PORTION NORTHEAST OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...AS A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM IMPULSE DIGS
TOWARD THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES...AND A TROUGH TO ITS
EAST...ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE AMPLIFYING...WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS
THIS OCCURS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE MID ATLANTIC CLOSED LOW
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO ACCELERATE MORE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD...AWAY
FROM COASTAL AREAS.

THESE DEVELOPMENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...AS WELL AS ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA...WITH AN OCCLUDING SURFACE
FRONT ADVANCING INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST. HOWEVER
...LINGERING LOW-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE A SUBSTANTIVE INLAND RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC DOES APPEAR LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TUESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND THE ROCKIES...WHERE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS AGAIN POSSIBLE. BUT...THIS IS
GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TO YIELD SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO
SUPPORT AN APPRECIABLE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

..KERR.. 10/02/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 020548
SWODY1
SPC AC 020547

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2011

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO WOBBLE IN A LOOP ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC TODAY REMAINING IN ABOUT THE SAME PLACE. AT THE SFC...A
LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF NEW YORK CITY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY BUT WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NORTHEAST OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FROM LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BECOMES MAXIMIZED. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND CNTRL TO NRN
ROCKIES WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST COMMON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
NONE OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY OR TONIGHT IS EXPECTED
TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

..BROYLES.. 10/02/2011

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 020503
SWODY2
SPC AC 020502

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2011

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH...
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST AT 12Z MONDAY...WILL PROGRESS INLAND
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED
TO DIG ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT... AS THE
NORTHERN PORTION LIFTS ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST AND CANADIAN
ROCKIES...IN ADVANCE OF A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE DIGGING
WITHIN A PROGRESSIVE REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. AT THE
SAME TIME...UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROMINENT
DOWNSTREAM...ACROSS THE U.S. PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE A
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES...AND
ANOTHER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS AND TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON/JAMES
BAY REGION. MODELS APPEAR IN INCREASING AGREEMENT THAT THIS LATTER
DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A SLOW EAST NORTHEASTWARD
ACCELERATION OF THE BROAD EASTERN U.S. CUT-OFF LOW...WITH THE
CIRCULATION CENTER NOW APPEARING LIKELY TO SHIFT OFF NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS TOWARD 12Z TUESDAY.

THE EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN...COUPLED WITH THE ASSOCIATED PRESENCE OF
LOW-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION...WILL MAINTAIN LOW
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES
ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
ROCKIES...WHERE DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT STILL PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.

..KERR.. 10/02/2011

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