KTFX [110227]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 110227
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
726 PM MST TUE JAN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0725 PM SNOW 9 SE HIGHWOOD 47.49N 110.64W
01/10/2012 M8.0 INCH CHOUTEAU MT TRAINED SPOTTER

STILL SNOWING STEADILY

&&

$$

WARANAUSKAS

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KSJT [110138]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KSJT 110138
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
738 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0849 PM SNOW 2 N BARNHART 31.16N 101.17W
01/09/2012 E5.0 INCH IRION TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

DEPUTY REPORTED 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG HIGHWAY 163
APPROXIMATELY 2 MILES NORTH OF BARNHART

0927 PM SNOW 13 W STERLING CITY 31.84N 101.21W
01/09/2012 E4.0 INCH STERLING TX TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW WAS ONGOING

1014 PM SNOW 4 SW SAN ANGELO 31.41N 100.50W
01/09/2012 E3.0 INCH TOM GREEN TX PUBLIC

THREE INCHES OF SNOW OFF OF TWIN MOUNTAIN ROAD

1036 PM SNOW ROSCOE 32.45N 100.54W
01/09/2012 E5.0 INCH NOLAN TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

1051 PM SNOW ROBERT LEE 31.89N 100.48W
01/09/2012 E3.0 INCH COKE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

2 TO 3 INCHES REPORTED IN ROBERT LEE

1100 PM SNOW 6 NNE WASTELLA 32.60N 100.62W
01/09/2012 E3.0 INCH FISHER TX PUBLIC

1125 PM SNOW ROWENA 31.65N 100.05W
01/09/2012 E2.0 INCH RUNNELS TX PUBLIC

1141 PM SNOW CHRISTOVAL 31.19N 100.50W
01/09/2012 E4.0 INCH TOM GREEN TX PUBLIC

1150 PM SNOW 5 SW SAN ANGELO 31.38N 100.49W
01/09/2012 M2.6 INCH TOM GREEN TX NWS OFFICE

OBSERVING LIGHT SNOW.

1246 AM SNOW 4 W SAN ANGELO 31.45N 100.52W
01/10/2012 M3.3 INCH TOM GREEN TX NWS EMPLOYEE

OBSERVING LIGHT SNOW

0739 AM SNOW WATER VALLEY 31.67N 100.72W
01/10/2012 M1.5 INCH TOM GREEN TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0813 AM SNOW 2 WSW SAN ANGELO 31.43N 100.48W
01/10/2012 M3.0 INCH TOM GREEN TX NWS EMPLOYEE

0814 AM SNOW 3 SSW SAN ANGELO 31.41N 100.47W
01/10/2012 M4.3 INCH TOM GREEN TX NWS EMPLOYEE

0815 AM SNOW 8 E STERLING CITY 31.84N 100.85W
01/10/2012 M2.0 INCH STERLING TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0834 AM SNOW PAINT ROCK 31.51N 99.93W
01/10/2012 M2.0 INCH CONCHO TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0834 AM SNOW 4 SW SAN ANGELO 31.41N 100.50W
01/10/2012 M3.5 INCH TOM GREEN TX NWS EMPLOYEE

0835 AM SNOW 3 NE WALL 31.40N 100.27W
01/10/2012 M2.0 INCH TOM GREEN TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0845 AM SNOW 11 NNE WATER VALLEY 31.81N 100.65W
01/10/2012 M2.0 INCH COKE TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0850 AM SNOW 7 NW TANKERSLEY 31.42N 100.73W
01/10/2012 M1.0 INCH IRION TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0851 AM SNOW MERTZON 31.26N 100.82W
01/10/2012 M1.0 INCH IRION TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0904 AM SNOW 4 W SAN ANGELO 31.45N 100.52W
01/10/2012 M3.5 INCH TOM GREEN TX NWS EMPLOYEE

0925 AM SNOW 19 SW STERLING CITY 31.64N 101.21W
01/10/2012 M5.0 INCH STERLING TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0935 AM SNOW 11 NE ELDORADO 30.97N 100.47W
01/10/2012 E1.0 INCH SCHLEICHER TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0952 AM SNOW 4 S SAN ANGELO 31.39N 100.45W
01/10/2012 E3.0 INCH TOM GREEN TX CO-OP OBSERVER

1057 AM SNOW 4 SW TENNYSON 31.70N 100.33W
01/10/2012 E1.0 INCH COKE TX CO-OP OBSERVER

1135 AM SNOW 4 W SAN ANGELO 31.45N 100.52W
01/10/2012 M3.3 INCH TOM GREEN TX PUBLIC

1137 AM SNOW 3 SW KNICKERBOCKER 31.23N 100.66W
01/10/2012 M4.0 INCH TOM GREEN TX PUBLIC

1144 AM SNOW 14 SSE MERTZON 31.07N 100.73W
01/10/2012 E2.0 INCH SCHLEICHER TX CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1200006 SJT1200007 SJT1200008 SJT1200009 SJT1200011
SJT1200034 SJT1200013 SJT1200014 SJT1200003 SJT1200015 SJT1200016
SJT1200017 SJT1200018 SJT1200019 SJT1200020 SJT1200021 SJT1200022
SJT1200023 SJT1200024 SJT1200025 SJT1200026 SJT1200027 SJT1200028
SJT1200029 SJT1200030 SJT1200031 SJT1200032 SJT1200033

$$

JOHNSON

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KSJT [110137]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KSJT 110137
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
737 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0849 PM SNOW 2 N BARNHART 31.16N 101.17W
01/09/2012 E5.0 INCH IRION TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

DEPUTY REPORTED 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG HIGHWAY 163
APPROXIMATELY 2 MILES NORTH OF BARNHART

0927 PM SNOW 13 W STERLING CITY 31.84N 101.21W
01/09/2012 E4.0 INCH STERLING TX TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW WAS ONGOING

1014 PM SNOW 4 SW SAN ANGELO 31.41N 100.50W
01/09/2012 E3.0 INCH TOM GREEN TX PUBLIC

THREE INCHES OF SNOW OFF OF TWIN MOUNTAIN ROAD

1036 PM SNOW ROSCOE 32.45N 100.54W
01/09/2012 E5.0 INCH NOLAN TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

1051 PM SNOW ROBERT LEE 31.89N 100.48W
01/09/2012 E3.0 INCH COKE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

2 TO 3 INCHES REPORTED IN ROBERT LEE

1125 PM SNOW ROWENA 31.65N 100.05W
01/09/2012 E2.0 INCH RUNNELS TX PUBLIC

1141 PM SNOW CHRISTOVAL 31.19N 100.50W
01/09/2012 E4.0 INCH TOM GREEN TX PUBLIC

1150 PM SNOW 5 SW SAN ANGELO 31.38N 100.49W
01/09/2012 M2.6 INCH TOM GREEN TX NWS OFFICE

OBSERVING LIGHT SNOW.

1246 AM SNOW 4 W SAN ANGELO 31.45N 100.52W
01/10/2012 M3.3 INCH TOM GREEN TX NWS EMPLOYEE

OBSERVING LIGHT SNOW

0739 AM SNOW WATER VALLEY 31.67N 100.72W
01/10/2012 M1.5 INCH TOM GREEN TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0813 AM SNOW 2 WSW SAN ANGELO 31.43N 100.48W
01/10/2012 M3.0 INCH TOM GREEN TX NWS EMPLOYEE

0814 AM SNOW 3 SSW SAN ANGELO 31.41N 100.47W
01/10/2012 M4.3 INCH TOM GREEN TX NWS EMPLOYEE

0815 AM SNOW 8 E STERLING CITY 31.84N 100.85W
01/10/2012 M2.0 INCH STERLING TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0834 AM SNOW PAINT ROCK 31.51N 99.93W
01/10/2012 M2.0 INCH CONCHO TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0834 AM SNOW 4 SW SAN ANGELO 31.41N 100.50W
01/10/2012 M3.5 INCH TOM GREEN TX NWS EMPLOYEE

0835 AM SNOW 3 NE WALL 31.40N 100.27W
01/10/2012 M2.0 INCH TOM GREEN TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0845 AM SNOW 11 NNE WATER VALLEY 31.81N 100.65W
01/10/2012 M2.0 INCH COKE TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0850 AM SNOW 7 NW TANKERSLEY 31.42N 100.73W
01/10/2012 M1.0 INCH IRION TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0851 AM SNOW MERTZON 31.26N 100.82W
01/10/2012 M1.0 INCH IRION TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0904 AM SNOW 4 W SAN ANGELO 31.45N 100.52W
01/10/2012 M3.5 INCH TOM GREEN TX NWS EMPLOYEE

0925 AM SNOW 19 SW STERLING CITY 31.64N 101.21W
01/10/2012 M5.0 INCH STERLING TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0935 AM SNOW 11 NE ELDORADO 30.97N 100.47W
01/10/2012 E1.0 INCH SCHLEICHER TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0952 AM SNOW 4 S SAN ANGELO 31.39N 100.45W
01/10/2012 E3.0 INCH TOM GREEN TX CO-OP OBSERVER

1057 AM SNOW 4 SW TENNYSON 31.70N 100.33W
01/10/2012 E1.0 INCH COKE TX CO-OP OBSERVER

1135 AM SNOW 4 W SAN ANGELO 31.45N 100.52W
01/10/2012 M3.3 INCH TOM GREEN TX PUBLIC

1137 AM SNOW 3 SW KNICKERBOCKER 31.23N 100.66W
01/10/2012 M4.0 INCH TOM GREEN TX PUBLIC

1144 AM SNOW 14 SSE MERTZON 31.07N 100.73W
01/10/2012 E2.0 INCH SCHLEICHER TX CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1200006 SJT1200007 SJT1200008 SJT1200009 SJT1200011
SJT1200013 SJT1200014 SJT1200003 SJT1200015 SJT1200016 SJT1200017
SJT1200018 SJT1200019 SJT1200020 SJT1200021 SJT1200022 SJT1200023
SJT1200024 SJT1200025 SJT1200026 SJT1200027 SJT1200028 SJT1200029
SJT1200030 SJT1200031 SJT1200032 SJT1200033

$$

JOHNSON

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KTFX [110121]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 110121
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
621 PM MST TUE JAN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 PM SNOW 7 E LEWISTOWN 47.06N 109.28W
01/10/2012 E2.0 INCH FERGUS MT PUBLIC

&&

$$

JNS

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KTFX [110057]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 110057
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
556 PM MST TUE JAN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0553 PM HEAVY SNOW 1 WNW MARYSVILLE 46.76N 112.32W
01/10/2012 M10.0 INCH LEWIS AND CLARK MT TRAINED SPOTTER

GREAT DIVIDE SKI AREA

&&

$$

EMANUEL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 110047
SWODY1
SPC AC 110045

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2012

VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF MS...AL...AND
THE FL PANHANDLE...

...MS/AL/GA/FL...
THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NERN TX WILL CONTINUE EWD AND WILL
DEEPEN OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS LA AND INTO MS BY MORNING. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER SERN AR WILL DEEPEN MAINLY AFTER
00-03Z...RESTING ACROSS NRN AL BY 12Z. STRONG COOLING ALOFT WITH
HEIGHT FALLS WILL WORK TO STRENGTHEN SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FROM
SERN LA/FAR ERN MS AT 03Z EWD INTO AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE
OVERNIGHT.

THE MAIN ISSUE WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL THUS FAR HAS BEEN
INSTABILITY...WHICH HAS BEEN WEAK DUE TO AN MCS THAT MOVED OVER THE
NRN GULF OF MEXICO...AS WELL AS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. SOME CLEARING
OCCURRED JUST BEFORE SUNSET OVER LA AND WRN MS...BENEATH THE
MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT. HERE...A COLD FRONT WAS QUASI-STATIONARY AT
00Z...WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WRN MS. THESE STORMS HAVE
SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF ROTATION...BUT POOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
WEAK INSTABILITY HAS MITIGATED STORM INTENSITY.

AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EWD...SOME DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY DUE TO COOLING ALOFT OVER A RELATIVELY HOMOGENEOUS BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 58-62 F RANGE. DESPITE WEAK
INSTABILITY...ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS MAY FORM MAINLY OVER AL LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND
PERHAPS INTO FAR WRN GA BY 12Z. WITH STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE...SOME
STORMS MAY CONTAIN ROTATION...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF
TORNADO POSSIBLE.

..JEWELL.. 01/11/2012

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KTAE [110040]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 110040
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
740 PM EST TUE JAN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG BAINBRIDGE 30.91N 84.58W
01/10/2012 DECATUR GA AMATEUR RADIO

SPOTTER REPORTED MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN BAINBRIDGE,CAIRO
AND OTHER TOWNS IN COUNTY.CONFIRMED BY 911 DECATUR
COUNTY.

&&

$$

BLOCK

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KTFX [110024]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 110024
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
523 PM MST TUE JAN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0517 PM SNOW 1 NE CHOTEAU 47.82N 112.16W
01/10/2012 M1.2 INCH TETON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

EMANUEL

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KTFX [110020]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 110020
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
520 PM MST TUE JAN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0519 PM SNOW 2 N CLANCY 46.49N 111.99W
01/10/2012 M3.0 INCH JEFFERSON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JNS

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KTFX [110017]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 110017
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
513 PM MST TUE JAN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0506 PM SNOW 8 E ROCKY BOY 48.26N 109.61W
01/10/2012 E8.0 INCH HILL MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTS 6 TO 8 INCHES.

&&

$$

JNS

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KMSO [102253]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 102253
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
352 PM MST TUE JAN 10 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0350 PM SNOW ESSEX 48.28N 113.61W
01/10/2012 E3.0 INCH FLATHEAD MT PUBLIC

THEY HAVE RECEIVED 3 INCHES IN THE PAST
24HRS AND IT IS STILL SNOWING FAIRLY HARD.

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KMSO [102237]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 102237
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
334 PM MST TUE JAN 10 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0250 PM SNOW EVARO 47.03N 114.09W
01/10/2012 M1.5 INCH MISSOULA MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1000 FEET. SLICK
ROADS. EVENT DURATION 120 MINUTES.

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0012

ACUS11 KWNS 102208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102208 COR
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-102330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0408 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LA...SCNTRL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 102208Z - 102330Z

CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN FIRST LINE BELOW...CHANGE MO TO MS

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS ERN LA AND
SCNTRL MS THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS AS THE STORMS GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WW ISSUANCE REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1006 MB SFC LOW OVER FAR NE LA WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS SE LA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
LOCATED FROM NRN MS EWD ACROSS NRN AL. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SFC
LOW...THE WARM SECTOR IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
MESOANALYSIS SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 250 TO 500 J/KG ACROSS
MUCH OF MS. IN SPITE OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY...A STRONGLY SHEARED
WIND PROFILE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 60 TO 70 KT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COLD TEMPS ALOFT /500 MB
TEMPS OF -14C TO -16C/ AND MARGINALLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
MAY BE ENOUGH FOR HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES. A POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR BUT ANY THREAT SHOULD REMAIN VERY
ISOLATED MAINLY DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY.

..BROYLES.. 01/10/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 31438918 32038885 32718873 33328901 33578976 33279093
33009137 32409152 31259118 30439075 30309022 30928960
31438918

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KTFX [102203]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KTFX 102203
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
303 PM MST TUE JAN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1051 AM SNOW 11 SSW EAST GLACIER PAR 48.30N 113.33W
01/10/2012 M8.0 INCH GLACIER MT MESONET

SNOTEL REPORTS 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FALL IN THE LAST 10
HOURS.

1258 PM SNOW 12 WSW BYNUM 47.89N 112.54W
01/10/2012 E3.0 INCH TETON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL SINCE 10 AM. SNOWING HEAVY WITH
NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

1259 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 NW HELENA 46.73N 112.21W
01/10/2012 M50 MPH LEWIS AND CLARK MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0100 PM HEAVY SNOW 14 SW HEART BUTTE 48.13N 113.02W
01/10/2012 M9.0 INCH PONDERA MT MESONET

9 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. ELEVATION
6900 FEET.

0219 PM SNOW 11 ESE HIGHWOOD 47.53N 110.58W
01/10/2012 E4.0 INCH CHOUTEAU MT TRAINED SPOTTER

4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL SINCE THIS MORNING. STILL SNOWING.

0223 PM SNOW 10 SSE HIGHWOOD 47.47N 110.68W
01/10/2012 E3.0 INCH CHOUTEAU MT TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE 10 AM. STILL SNOWING.

0300 PM SNOW SSE BROWNING 48.56N 113.01W
01/10/2012 E5.0 INCH GLACIER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

5 INCHES OF SNOW IN BROWNING SINCE THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

NJL

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KTFX [102201]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 102201
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
301 PM MST TUE JAN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM SNOW SSE BROWNING 48.56N 113.01W
01/10/2012 E5.0 INCH GLACIER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

5 INCHES OF SNOW IN BROWNING SINCE THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

NJL

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0012

ACUS11 KWNS 102154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102154
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-102330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LA...SCNTRL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 102154Z - 102330Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS ERN LA AND
SCNTRL MO THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS AS THE STORMS GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WW ISSUANCE REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1006 MB SFC LOW OVER FAR NE LA WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS SE LA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
LOCATED FROM NRN MS EWD ACROSS NRN AL. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SFC
LOW...THE WARM SECTOR IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
MESOANALYSIS SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 250 TO 500 J/KG ACROSS
MUCH OF MS. IN SPITE OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY...A STRONGLY SHEARED
WIND PROFILE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 60 TO 70 KT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COLD TEMPS ALOFT /500 MB
TEMPS OF -14C TO -16C/ AND MARGINALLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
MAY BE ENOUGH FOR HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES. A POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR BUT ANY THREAT SHOULD REMAIN VERY
ISOLATED MAINLY DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY.

..BROYLES.. 01/10/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 31438918 32038885 32718873 33328901 33578976 33279093
33009137 32409152 31259118 30439075 30309022 30928960
31438918

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KTFX [102124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 102124
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
224 PM MST TUE JAN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0223 PM SNOW 10 SSE HIGHWOOD 47.47N 110.68W
01/10/2012 E3.0 INCH CHOUTEAU MT TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE 10 AM. STILL SNOWING.

&&

$$

NJL

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KTFX [102119]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 102119
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
219 PM MST TUE JAN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0219 PM SNOW 11 ESE HIGHWOOD 47.53N 110.58W
01/10/2012 E4.0 INCH CHOUTEAU MT TRAINED SPOTTER

4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL SINCE THIS MORNING. STILL SNOWING.

&&

$$

NJL

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KTFX [102056]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 102056
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
156 PM MST TUE JAN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM HEAVY SNOW 14 SW HEART BUTTE 48.13N 113.02W
01/10/2012 M9.0 INCH PONDERA MT MESONET

9 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. ELEVATION
6900 FEET.

&&

$$

NJL

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KTFX [102020]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 102020
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
120 PM MST TUE JAN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1259 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 NW HELENA 46.73N 112.21W
01/10/2012 M50 MPH LEWIS AND CLARK MT TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JNS

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KTFX [101959]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 101959
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1259 PM MST TUE JAN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1258 PM SNOW 12 WSW BYNUM 47.89N 112.54W
01/10/2012 E3.0 INCH TETON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL SINCE 10 AM. SNOWING HEAVY WITH
NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

&&

$$

NJL

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KHGX [101948]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KHGX 101948
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
148 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0905 AM TORNADO 5 WNW MEADOWS 29.68N 95.66W
01/09/2012 F1 FORT BEND TX NWS STORM SURVEY

AN EF-1 TORNADO WITH WINDS OF 95 MPH TOUCHED DOWN NEAR
THE INTERSECTION OF BISSONNET STREET AND GAINS ROAD IN
MISSION BEND OF FORT BEND COUNTY. SEVERAL HOMES WERE
DAMAGED WITH ONE HAVING SIGNIFICANT ROOF DAMAGE. DAMAGE
PATH LENGTH WAS 0.50 MILES WITH A WIDTH OF 50 YARDS.

1255 PM TORNADO 4 SE DICKINSON 29.41N 95.03W
01/09/2012 F0 GALVESTON TX NWS STORM SURVEY

STORM SURVEY RATED THE DAMAGE FROM A TORNADO AS EF-0. LAW
ENFORCEMENT WITNESSED TOUCH DOWN NEAR MALL OF THE
MAINLAND IN TEXAS CITY. WINDOWS BLOWN OUT OF VEHICLES IN
PARKING LOT. ROOF OF MALL DAMAGED. SEVERAL SHALLOW ROOTED
TREES WERE KNOKED OVER IN A NEIGHBORHOOD NEAR THE MALL.

&&

$$

OVERPECK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101939
SWODY1
SPC AC 101937

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2012

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF
STATES...

...CENTRAL GULF STATES...

MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE WRN PART OF THE CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY TO ACCOUNT FOR A DIMINISHED THUNDER/SEVERE
THREAT IN THE WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. ELSEWHERE...PROBABILITIES
REMAIN UNCHANGED.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OVER
ERN LA/MS AND CERTAINLY HAVE YET TO ATTAIN ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE
STATUS. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED INSTABILITY APPEAR LARGELY
RESPONSIBLE...THOUGH RECENT TRENDS DO SUGGEST UPDRAFTS ARE GRADUALLY
DEEPENING ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM SWRN MS INTO
SUBSEQUENT REGIONS OF LA ALONG THE WIND SHIFT. THIS REGION HAS
EXPERIENCED A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WHICH MAY BE AIDING THIS
DEVELOPMENT. EARLIER THOUGHTS PREVAIL REGARDING THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT AND WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE PROBS DOWNSTREAM AHEAD OF ADVANCING
COLD FRONT TO ACCOUNT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

..DARROW.. 01/10/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2012/

...PARTS OF LOWER MS VALLEY EWD TO AL/FL PANHANDLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...
A MIDLEVEL LOW OVER NE TX THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS EWD TO MS/AL BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO A NRN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN GRADUALLY WHILE MOVING NEWD FROM LA TO WRN TN...AS A TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THERE WILL BE
SOME NWD SPREAD OF THE SURFACE WARM/MOIST SECTOR ACROSS
MS/AL...THOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THROUGHOUT
THE WARM SECTOR THAT WILL INHIBIT SURFACE HEATING. ADDITIONALLY...A
LARGE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL
HELP MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND INTERFERE SOME WITH INLAND PROGRESS OF THE
MARINE WARM FRONT AND NWD TRANSPORT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE MAINLY WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE CLOUDY WARM SECTOR
FROM SE LA ACROSS SRN MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME RISK
FOR NEAR-SURFACE-BASED STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...AND SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS OVER THE GULF COULD ALSO
APPROACH THE COAST. OVERALL...THE MESSY THERMODYNAMIC SITUATION
SUGGESTS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE LOWER
MARGINS OF A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK.

FARTHER N...THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SPREAD ENEWD FROM NRN LA/AR TOWARD CENTRAL/NRN MS AND
WRN TN BY THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE ENEWD OVERNIGHT. THE 12Z SHV
SOUNDING REFLECTED A POCKET OF RELATIVELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND ELEVATED CAPE...AND A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IMMEDIATELY IN
ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN A BROKEN BAND NEAR AND SE OF THE SURFACE
LOW...SOME OF WHICH COULD DEVELOP SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS GIVEN
MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT.
LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG...AND FORECAST HODOGRAPHS DEPICT BACKING FLOW ALOFT WITH
TIME...SO THE TORNADO RISK APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL ACROSS A
RELATIVELY BROAD AREA. OTHERWISE...THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND
RELATIVELY COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT.

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KSJT [101818]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 101818
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1217 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM SNOW 13 W STERLING CITY 31.84N 101.21W
01/09/2012 E1.0 INCH STERLING TX CO-OP OBSERVER

APPROXIMATELY 1 INCH OF SNOW ON THE GROUND

0849 PM SNOW 2 N BARNHART 31.16N 101.17W
01/09/2012 E5.0 INCH IRION TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

DEPUTY REPORTED 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG HIGHWAY 163
APPROXIMATELY 2 MILES NORTH OF BARNHART

0927 PM SNOW 13 W STERLING CITY 31.84N 101.21W
01/09/2012 E4.0 INCH STERLING TX TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW WAS ONGOING

1014 PM SNOW 4 SW SAN ANGELO 31.41N 100.50W
01/09/2012 E3.0 INCH TOM GREEN TX PUBLIC

THREE INCHES OF SNOW OFF OF TWIN MOUNTAIN ROAD

1036 PM SNOW ROSCOE 32.45N 100.54W
01/09/2012 E5.0 INCH NOLAN TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

1049 PM SNOW 4 W SAN ANGELO 31.45N 100.52W
01/09/2012 E3.0 INCH TOM GREEN TX NWS EMPLOYEE

1051 PM SNOW ROBERT LEE 31.89N 100.48W
01/09/2012 E3.0 INCH COKE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

2 TO 3 INCHES REPORTED IN ROBERT LEE

1103 PM SNOW 3 SSW SAN ANGELO 31.41N 100.47W
01/09/2012 M4.5 INCH TOM GREEN TX NWS EMPLOYEE

BENTWOOD AREA

1125 PM SNOW ROWENA 31.65N 100.05W
01/09/2012 E2.0 INCH RUNNELS TX PUBLIC

1141 PM SNOW CHRISTOVAL 31.19N 100.50W
01/09/2012 E4.0 INCH TOM GREEN TX PUBLIC

1246 AM SNOW 4 W SAN ANGELO 31.45N 100.52W
01/10/2012 M3.3 INCH TOM GREEN TX NWS EMPLOYEE

OBSERVING LIGHT SNOW

0739 AM SNOW WATER VALLEY 31.67N 100.72W
01/10/2012 M1.5 INCH TOM GREEN TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0813 AM SNOW 2 WSW SAN ANGELO 31.43N 100.48W
01/10/2012 M3.0 INCH TOM GREEN TX NWS EMPLOYEE

0814 AM SNOW 3 SSW SAN ANGELO 31.41N 100.47W
01/10/2012 M4.3 INCH TOM GREEN TX NWS EMPLOYEE

0815 AM SNOW 8 E STERLING CITY 31.84N 100.85W
01/10/2012 M2.0 INCH STERLING TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0834 AM SNOW PAINT ROCK 31.51N 99.93W
01/10/2012 M2.0 INCH CONCHO TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0834 AM SNOW 4 SW SAN ANGELO 31.41N 100.50W
01/10/2012 M3.5 INCH TOM GREEN TX NWS EMPLOYEE

0835 AM SNOW 3 NE WALL 31.40N 100.27W
01/10/2012 M2.0 INCH TOM GREEN TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0845 AM SNOW 11 NNE WATER VALLEY 31.81N 100.65W
01/10/2012 M2.0 INCH COKE TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0850 AM SNOW 7 NW TANKERSLEY 31.42N 100.73W
01/10/2012 M1.0 INCH IRION TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0851 AM SNOW MERTZON 31.26N 100.82W
01/10/2012 M1.0 INCH IRION TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0904 AM SNOW 4 W SAN ANGELO 31.45N 100.52W
01/10/2012 M3.5 INCH TOM GREEN TX NWS EMPLOYEE

0925 AM SNOW 19 SW STERLING CITY 31.64N 101.21W
01/10/2012 M5.0 INCH STERLING TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0935 AM SNOW 11 NE ELDORADO 30.97N 100.47W
01/10/2012 E1.0 INCH SCHLEICHER TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0952 AM SNOW 4 S SAN ANGELO 31.39N 100.45W
01/10/2012 E3.0 INCH TOM GREEN TX CO-OP OBSERVER

1057 AM SNOW 4 SW TENNYSON 31.70N 100.33W
01/10/2012 E1.0 INCH COKE TX CO-OP OBSERVER

1135 AM SNOW 4 W SAN ANGELO 31.45N 100.52W
01/10/2012 M3.3 INCH TOM GREEN TX PUBLIC

1137 AM SNOW 3 SW KNICKERBOCKER 31.23N 100.66W
01/10/2012 M4.0 INCH TOM GREEN TX PUBLIC

1144 AM SNOW 14 SSE MERTZON 31.07N 100.73W
01/10/2012 E2.0 INCH SCHLEICHER TX CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1200005
EVENT NUMBER SJT1200006
EVENT NUMBER SJT1200007
EVENT NUMBER SJT1200008
EVENT NUMBER SJT1200009
EVENT NUMBER SJT1200010
EVENT NUMBER SJT1200011
EVENT NUMBER SJT1200012
EVENT NUMBER SJT1200013
EVENT NUMBER SJT1200014
EVENT NUMBER SJT1200015
EVENT NUMBER SJT1200016
EVENT NUMBER SJT1200017
EVENT NUMBER SJT1200018
EVENT NUMBER SJT1200019
EVENT NUMBER SJT1200020
EVENT NUMBER SJT1200021
EVENT NUMBER SJT1200022
EVENT NUMBER SJT1200023
EVENT NUMBER SJT1200024
EVENT NUMBER SJT1200025
EVENT NUMBER SJT1200026
EVENT NUMBER SJT1200027
EVENT NUMBER SJT1200028
EVENT NUMBER SJT1200029
EVENT NUMBER SJT1200030
EVENT NUMBER SJT1200031
EVENT NUMBER SJT1200032
EVENT NUMBER SJT1200033

$$

REIMER

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KTFX [101753]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 101753
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1053 AM MST TUE JAN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1051 AM SNOW 11 SSW EAST GLACIER PAR 48.30N 113.33W
01/10/2012 M8.0 INCH GLACIER MT MESONET

SNOTEL REPORTS 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FALL IN THE LAST 10
HOURS.

&&

$$

JNS

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 101726
SWODY2
SPC AC 101725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2012

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN U.S...

WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL SPEED MAX...APPROACHING 80KT...WILL EJECT
NEWD ACROSS SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE TO THE OUTER BANKS REGION OF NC AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS AFFILIATED UPPER LOW OPENS IN RESPONSE TO
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE MS VALLEY. IN RESPONSE...SOMEWHAT
VEERED BUT OTHERWISE STRONG LLJ WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE ERN GULF
STATES INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ENSURING A ZONE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION RETREATS NWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO VA BY EARLY
EVENING. WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN MINIMAL AS SFC DEW POINTS STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...AND THIS WILL BE LIMITED TO NEAR COASTAL REGIONS.
DESPITE THE MODIFIED MOISTURE RETURN IT WOULD SEEM THAT MEAGER LAPSE
RATES SHOULD RESTRICT MUCAPE VALUES TO ROUGHLY 500 J/KG...AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BE ALONG A NARROW AXIS DIRECTLY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
GIVEN THAT THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE RESTRICTED TO THE
NEAR-COLD FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED
SOMEWHAT WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS. FOR THIS REASON
HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES
SEEM LESS SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC ACTIVITY AND ANY CONVECTION THAT
EVOLVES WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE SHOULD DO SO WITHIN A VERY
WEAK INSTABILITY REGIME. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THE TSTMS THAT DEVELOP
THE GREATEST INTENSITY SHOULD BE COLOCATED ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WHICH SHOULD PROVE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED WIND GUSTS. SWD EXTENT OF FRONTAL CONVECTION
COULD EASILY DEVELOP INTO THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA BEFORE CONVERGENCE
WEAKENS AND UPDRAFTS BECOME MORE LIKELY TO LAG THE WIND SHIFT.

..DARROW.. 01/10/2012

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KLCH [101645]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 101645
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1045 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM FLOOD LAKE CHARLES 30.21N 93.20W
01/09/2012 CALCASIEU LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL ROADS WERE REPORTED FLOODED ACROSS THE CITY
DURING THE HEAVY RAINS LAST NIGHT.

&&

$$

BRAZZELL

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KLCH [101632]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 101632
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
948 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1020 AM FLOOD RAYNE 30.24N 92.27W
01/10/2012 ACADIA LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL ROADS CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGH WATER ACROSS THE
PARISH THAT INCLUDE STANDARD MILL ROAD...NATION
ROAD...HERITAGE ROAD WEST OF HWY 95. HWY 97 AT HWY
100...LOVELL STREET NEAR CROWLEY...QUARTER POLE ROAD
NEAR RAYNE IS CLOSED...WHITE OAK HWY WEST OF ROBERT
COVE ROAD...GAYLE DRIVE...WELSH ROAD OFF HWY 98...HANKS
CEMETARY ROAD...GOTTS COVE ROAD AT CROCHET...CHARLIE
ARCENEAUX ROAD NEAR MIRE EVERGLADE ROAD AT HWY 92 NEAR
MERMENTAU...EVERGLADE ROAD AT ISTRE MERMENTAU...GERMAINE
STREET NEAR MIRE AND HENRY ROAD NEAR LYONS POINT.

&&

$$

BRAZZELL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101631
SWODY1
SPC AC 101629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2012

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF
LOWER MS VALLEY EWD TO AL/FL PANHANDLE...

...PARTS OF LOWER MS VALLEY EWD TO AL/FL PANHANDLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...
A MIDLEVEL LOW OVER NE TX THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS EWD TO MS/AL BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO A NRN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN GRADUALLY WHILE MOVING NEWD FROM LA TO WRN TN...AS A TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THERE WILL BE
SOME NWD SPREAD OF THE SURFACE WARM/MOIST SECTOR ACROSS
MS/AL...THOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THROUGHOUT
THE WARM SECTOR THAT WILL INHIBIT SURFACE HEATING. ADDITIONALLY...A
LARGE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL
HELP MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND INTERFERE SOME WITH INLAND PROGRESS OF THE
MARINE WARM FRONT AND NWD TRANSPORT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE MAINLY WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE CLOUDY WARM SECTOR
FROM SE LA ACROSS SRN MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME RISK
FOR NEAR-SURFACE-BASED STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...AND SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS OVER THE GULF COULD ALSO
APPROACH THE COAST. OVERALL...THE MESSY THERMODYNAMIC SITUATION
SUGGESTS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE LOWER
MARGINS OF A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK.

FARTHER N...THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SPREAD ENEWD FROM NRN LA/AR TOWARD CENTRAL/NRN MS AND
WRN TN BY THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE ENEWD OVERNIGHT. THE 12Z SHV
SOUNDING REFLECTED A POCKET OF RELATIVELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND ELEVATED CAPE...AND A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IMMEDIATELY IN
ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN A BROKEN BAND NEAR AND SE OF THE SURFACE
LOW...SOME OF WHICH COULD DEVELOP SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS GIVEN
MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT.
LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG...AND FORECAST HODOGRAPHS DEPICT BACKING FLOW ALOFT WITH
TIME...SO THE TORNADO RISK APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL ACROSS A
RELATIVELY BROAD AREA. OTHERWISE...THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND
RELATIVELY COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT.

..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 01/10/2012

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KLCH [101548]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 101548
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
948 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 AM FLOOD RAYNE 30.24N 92.27W
01/10/2012 ACADIA LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL ROADS WITH HIGH WATER THAT INCLUDE STANDARD MILL
AT EDWIN DRIVE...NATION ROAD NEAR RAYNE...HERITAGE ROAD
NEAR IOTA. HWY 97 AT HWY 100...LOVELL STREET NEAR
CROWLEY...QUARTER POLE ROAD NEAR RAYNE IS CLOSED...WHITE
OAK HWY WEST OF ROBERTS COVE ROAD... HWY 13 NEAR CROWLEY
AND GAYLE DRIVE.

&&

$$

BRAZZELL

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KLCH [101544]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 101544
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
944 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 AM FLOOD 5 W OPELOUSAS 30.52N 92.16W
01/10/2012 ST. LANDRY LA EMERGENCY MNGR

ST. LANDRY PARISH EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS SEVERAL
ROADS WITH HIGH WATER THAT INCLUDE
DUCK...MONTGOMERY...DON GUILBEAU AT MUSHROOM
ROAD...ACADIANA ROAD AT HWY 190...ROZAS ROAD AT TASSO
LOOP...MECHE ROAD...AND HYPOLITE MILLER ROAD.

&&

$$

BRAZZELL

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KLCH [101537]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 101537
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
937 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 AM FLOOD 3 WNW CHURCH POINT 30.42N 92.26W
01/10/2012 ACADIA LA PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTS FLOODING ON HWY 95

&&

$$

BRAZZELL

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KLCH [101535]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 101535
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
935 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 AM FLOOD 3 E CROWLEY 30.21N 92.33W
01/10/2012 ACADIA LA PUBLIC

SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OBSERVED.

&&

$$

BRAZZELL

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KLCH [101531]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 101531
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
931 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 AM FLOOD 2 E RAYNE 30.24N 92.23W
01/10/2012 ACADIA LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OBSERVED.

&&

$$

BRAZZELL

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KHGX [101524]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHGX 101524
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
923 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0905 AM TORNADO 5 WNW MEADOWS 29.68N 95.66W
01/09/2012 FORT BEND TX NWS STORM SURVEY

AN EF-1 TORNADO WITH WINDS OF 95 MPH TOUCHED DOWN NEAR
THE INTERSECTION OF BISSONNET STREET AND GAINS ROAD IN
MISSION BEND OF FORT BEND COUNTY. SEVERAL HOMES WERE
DAMAGED WITH ONE HAVING SIGNIFICANT ROOF DAMAGE. DAMAGE
PATH LENGTH WAS 0.50 MILES WITH A WIDTH OF 50 YARDS.

&&

$$

OVERPECK

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KMSO [101505]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 101505
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
805 AM MST TUE JAN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 AM FREEZING RAIN 13 W LOLO 46.76N 114.35W
01/10/2012 U0.00 INCH MISSOULA MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ROAD CLOSED DUE TO ACCIDENT INVOLVING 3 SEMI-TRUCKS.
FREEZING RAIN REPORTED.

0710 AM FREEZING RAIN FLORENCE 46.63N 114.08W
01/10/2012 U0.00 INCH RAVALLI MT NWS EMPLOYEE

0751 AM FREEZING RAIN 5 NW MISSOULA 46.92N 114.08W
01/10/2012 U0.00 INCH MISSOULA MT ASOS

BEGAN AT 0430 MST.

&&

$$

GIBSON

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KSHV [101500]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 101500
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
900 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0859 AM HAIL TEXARKANA 33.45N 94.02W
01/10/2012 E1.00 INCH MILLER AR AMATEUR RADIO

&&

$$

20

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KSHV [101459]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 101459
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
858 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 AM HAIL HOOKS 33.47N 94.29W
01/10/2012 E0.75 INCH BOWIE TX TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

20

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KSHV [101443]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 101443
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
843 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 AM HAIL 4 W DOMINO 33.25N 94.18W
01/10/2012 E0.88 INCH CASS TX BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

$$

20

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KSHV [101440]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 101440
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
840 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0805 AM HAIL 3 SW ATLANTA 33.09N 94.20W
01/10/2012 E1.00 INCH CASS TX PUBLIC

NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL COVERING THE
GROUND...RELAYED FROM MEDIA.

&&

$$

20

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KPDT [101406]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 101406
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
605 AM PST TUE JAN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 AM SNOW 9 SW SKI BLUEWOOD 45.98N 117.95W
01/10/2012 E4.0 INCH WALLOWA OR MESONET

6 HOUR TOTAL AT MILK SHAKES SNOTEL. ELEVATION 5600 FEET.

0500 AM SNOW 3 NNW SKI BLUEWOOD 46.12N 117.85W
01/10/2012 E4.0 INCH COLUMBIA WA MESONET

6 HOUR TOTAL AT TOUCHET MTN SNOTEL. ELEVATION 5500 FEET.

&&

$$

MVESCIO

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101255
SWODY1
SPC AC 101254

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2012

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...

MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AND GRADUALLY ASSUME A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT WHILE
PROGRESSING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS ATTENDANT
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS ROUND THE TROUGH BASE INTO PORTIONS
OF AL/GA OVERNIGHT...SUPPORTING A CORRIDOR OF 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS AT
500 MB IN EXCESS OF 100 M ALONG THE SYSTEM TRACK. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...SURFACE LOW NEAR POE AS OF 12Z...WILL DEEPEN WHILE
DEVELOPING NEWD TO THE MS DELTA REGION BY 11/00Z AND TO NEAR THE
TN/KY BORDER /W OF HOP/ BY 11/12Z. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL
CONCURRENTLY LIFT NWD THROUGH MS/AL INTO THE TN VALLEY BY TONIGHT
WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND CNTRL GULF COAST.

...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL GULF STATES...

SUSTAINED SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITHIN EXPANDING WARM SECTOR WILL ALLOW
FOR THE NWD FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS
MS/AL TODAY. THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR BENEATH COOLING MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND A RESULTANT STEEPENING OF MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND ONGOING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM NRN LA EWD INTO
SRN/CNTRL PARTS OF MS/AL WILL HINDER THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS
WITH MLCAPE VALUES REMAINING BELOW 1000 J/KG AT MOST LOCATIONS.

A RECENT INCREASE IN ELEVATED TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER NWRN
LA APPEARS TO BE THE MANIFESTATION OF WHERE THE STRONGER FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALIGNS WITH THE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND NWRN EXTENSION
OF A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT /REF. 12Z SHV SOUNDING/. EXPECT THIS
REGIME TO SPREAD NEWD TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY SEVERE HAIL.

THE TIMING OF SURFACE-BASED STORM EVOLUTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS
A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN BASED ON THE DISPERSIVE SOLUTIONS OF THE LATEST
MESOSCALE AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS. THIS IS PERHAPS
SYMPTOMATIC OF VARYING DEGREES OF INSTABILITY GENERATED BY EACH
MODEL. REGARDLESS...AS THE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR...EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW
OVER THE ARKLAMISS SWD/SEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WHILE INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN MARGINAL...THE STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES
INITIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF MS AND SERN LA...AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT
ACROSS AL AND THE FL PNHDL. DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS.

..MEAD/BOTHWELL.. 01/10/2012

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 100950
SWOD48
SPC AC 100950

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2012

VALID 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS NEARLY NON-EXISTENT THROUGH
ROUGHLY DAY 6 /SUN. JAN. 15/...AS A COLD/CONTINENTAL AIRMASS SETTLES
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT -- LIKELY TO RESIDE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.

MODEL DIVERGENCE BEGINS TO SLOWLY INCREASE FROM DAY 6 ONWARD...BUT
HINTS THAT LEE CYCLOGENESIS MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DAY
7 /MON. JAN. 16/ COULD RESULT IN SOME MOISTURE RETURN AND MODEST
DESTABILIZATION INTO THE SRN PLAINS. WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT
THE LEE CYCLONE COULD BECOME MOBILE IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH -- A MORE BULLISH CONVECTIVE
SCENARIO...THE ECMWF IS NEARLY A DAY SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE.
GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...ANY SEVERE THREAT REMAINS QUITE UNCLEAR
THUS WARRANTING THE LACK OF ANY OUTLOOK AREAS THIS PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 01/10/2012

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 100829
SWODY3
SPC AC 100828

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2012

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
AS THE WEAKENING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TRACKS NNEWD TOWARD COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND...A MUCH LARGER TROUGH/LOW WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING SLOWLY
EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND INTO THE ERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THROUGH THE PERIOD...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE
COUNTRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME RIDGING OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND
ADJACENT WRN CONUS.

AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE ERN U.S. THIS
PERIOD -- REINFORCING THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE
PRIOR FRONT...LITTLE DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF S FL. EVEN HERE HOWEVER...LITTLE IF ANY
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED.

..GOSS.. 01/10/2012

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 100657
SWODY2
SPC AC 100656

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2012

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES IS PROGGED
TO WEAKEN SLOWLY WHILE SHIFTING ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS
AND INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS EJECTING
FEATURE...A MUCH LARGER TROUGH/LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SEWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT LARGELY PREVAILING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE U.S. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW INITIALLY OVER THE MID SOUTH IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT NEWD WITH TIME...EVENTUALLY REDEVELOPING E OF THE APPALACHIANS
INVOF THE CAROLINAS BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. WHILE AN
INITIAL/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THIS LOW...A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. AND SHOULD APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

...THE SOUTHEAST...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD FROM THE MID SOUTH REGION SWD INTO NWRN FL. VERY MINIMAL
INSTABILITY BUT STRONG/VEERING FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT LOW-END
WIND/TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST WITH MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS.

AS THE SURFACE FRONT -- AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF CONVECTION -- SHIFTS
EWD INTO A SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY-LAYER ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL TO REMAIN LIMITED.

WITH LOW REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE CAROLINAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SOME INLAND FLUX OF GULF STREAM MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN A
SLIGHTLY MORE THERMODYNAMICALLY-CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT...AND THUS
POSSIBLY SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION. STILL...WITH CAPE LIKELY TO
REMAIN MINIMAL...ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD LIKEWISE REMAIN LOW
DESPITE FAVORABLE KINEMATICS. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5%
SEVERE/TORNADO PROBABILITY THIS FORECAST...THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE
BEING EXPANDED SWD ACROSS FL TO COVER ANY LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION LIKELY TO CROSS THE FL
PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 01/10/2012

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1

ACUS01 KWNS 100653
SWODY1
SPC AC 100651

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2012

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN AR/ERN LA INTO
MS...AL...AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...

CORRECTED FOR EXTENSION OF CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK INTO AR

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM CNTRL TX INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION
BY 00Z...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT ACROSS NRN MS AND NEAR THE AL BORDER
BY WED MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY DEEPEN FROM THE SABINE RIVER INTO SERN AR/NWRN MS BY
00Z...TREKKING NEWD INTO MIDDLE TN OVERNIGHT.

A LONG DURATION OF SLY FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL ALLOW
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER MUCH OF
MS AND INTO CNTRL AND SRN AL. BY 00Z...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
SERN AR ACROSS SWRN MS...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY TO
BE ONGOING ACROSS LA...SRN MS AND AL.

...LOWER VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...
A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS...NOW EXTENDING FROM S CNTRL LA INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING FROM SWRN MS INTO SERN LA
TUE MORNING...SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED ORGANIZATION WITH SOME OF
THESE STORMS...WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND ALSO HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN
THREATS DURING THE MORNING.

WITH TIME...AS THE UPPER LOW EMERGES...LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION. GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING
ALOFT...AS WELL AS A CONTINUED INFLUX OF AT LEAST LOWER 60S F
DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS GIVEN
THE SHEAR. WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...THE DOMINANT MODE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUPERCELLS. AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF STORMS MAY
CONTINUE TO YIELD A WIND AND PERHAPS TORNADO THREAT OVER SERN LA AND
CNTRL/SRN MS DURING THE DAY.

MEANWHILE...AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS...ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS
SHOULD MATERIALIZE ACROSS WRN/NWRN MS...FAR NERN LA...AND SERN AR.
HERE...FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST...AND VERY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL COMPENSATE FOR ONLY MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER WARMTH. SUPERCELLS
ARE LIKELY IN THIS AREA AS WELL...WITH A LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO
THREAT. NEWD EXTENT OF THIS THREAT AREA WILL BE LIMITED BY A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT...N OF WHICH SURFACE AIR WILL BE STABLE. SOME HAIL THREAT
MAY REMAIN N OF THIS FRONT IN AN ELEVATED SENSE AS SHEAR ALLOWS
CORES TO PERSIST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH COVERAGE DUE TO
WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
WILL BE HIGH.

THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EWD WHILE STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT. AS
SUCH...A THIRD AREA OF SEVERE MAY MATERIALIZE OVER CNTRL AND ERN
AL...AND THE FL PANHANDLE...PERHAPS APPROACHING GA BY WED MORNING.
HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HINT AT A CLUSTER OF
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL/SRN AL AFTER 6Z. SHEAR WILL BE VERY
STRONG...AND TORNADOES...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR.

..JEWELL/LEITMAN.. 01/10/2012

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 100553
SWODY1
SPC AC 100552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CST MON JAN 09 2012

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN AR/ERN LA INTO
MS...AL...AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM CNTRL TX INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION
BY 00Z...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT ACROSS NRN MS AND NEAR THE AL BORDER
BY WED MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY DEEPEN FROM THE SABINE RIVER INTO SERN AR/NWRN MS BY
00Z...TREKKING NEWD INTO MIDDLE TN OVERNIGHT.

A LONG DURATION OF SLY FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL ALLOW
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER MUCH OF
MS AND INTO CNTRL AND SRN AL. BY 00Z...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
SERN AR ACROSS SWRN MS...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY TO
BE ONGOING ACROSS LA...SRN MS AND AL.

...LOWER VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...
A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS...NOW EXTENDING FROM S CNTRL LA INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING FROM SWRN MS INTO SERN LA
TUE MORNING...SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED ORGANIZATION WITH SOME OF
THESE STORMS...WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND ALSO HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN
THREATS DURING THE MORNING.

WITH TIME...AS THE UPPER LOW EMERGES...LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION. GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING
ALOFT...AS WELL AS A CONTINUED INFLUX OF AT LEAST LOWER 60S F
DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS GIVEN
THE SHEAR. WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...THE DOMINANT MODE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUPERCELLS. AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF STORMS MAY
CONTINUE TO YIELD A WIND AND PERHAPS TORNADO THREAT OVER SERN LA AND
CNTRL/SRN MS DURING THE DAY.

MEANWHILE...AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS...ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS
SHOULD MATERIALIZE ACROSS WRN/NWRN MS...FAR NERN LA...AND SERN AR.
HERE...FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST...AND VERY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL COMPENSATE FOR ONLY MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER WARMTH. SUPERCELLS
ARE LIKELY IN THIS AREA AS WELL...WITH A LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO
THREAT. NEWD EXTENT OF THIS THREAT AREA WILL BE LIMITED BY A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT...N OF WHICH SURFACE AIR WILL BE STABLE. SOME HAIL THREAT
MAY REMAIN N OF THIS FRONT IN AN ELEVATED SENSE AS SHEAR ALLOWS
CORES TO PERSIST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH COVERAGE DUE TO
WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
WILL BE HIGH.

THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EWD WHILE STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT. AS
SUCH...A THIRD AREA OF SEVERE MAY MATERIALIZE OVER CNTRL AND ERN
AL...AND THE FL PANHANDLE...PERHAPS APPROACHING GA BY WED MORNING.
HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HINT AT A CLUSTER OF
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL/SRN AL AFTER 6Z. SHEAR WILL BE VERY
STRONG...AND TORNADOES...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR.

..JEWELL/LEITMAN.. 01/10/2012

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