SWOD48
SPC AC 100950
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2012
VALID 131200Z - 181200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS NEARLY NON-EXISTENT THROUGH
ROUGHLY DAY 6 /SUN. JAN. 15/...AS A COLD/CONTINENTAL AIRMASS SETTLES
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT -- LIKELY TO RESIDE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
MODEL DIVERGENCE BEGINS TO SLOWLY INCREASE FROM DAY 6 ONWARD...BUT
HINTS THAT LEE CYCLOGENESIS MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DAY
7 /MON. JAN. 16/ COULD RESULT IN SOME MOISTURE RETURN AND MODEST
DESTABILIZATION INTO THE SRN PLAINS. WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT
THE LEE CYCLONE COULD BECOME MOBILE IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH -- A MORE BULLISH CONVECTIVE
SCENARIO...THE ECMWF IS NEARLY A DAY SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE.
GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...ANY SEVERE THREAT REMAINS QUITE UNCLEAR
THUS WARRANTING THE LACK OF ANY OUTLOOK AREAS THIS PERIOD.
..GOSS.. 01/10/2012
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