KBYZ [020354]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 020354
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
954 PM MDT TUE NOV 01 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM SNOW 1 NW BURGESS JUNCTION 44.78N 107.53W
11/01/2011 E12.0 INCH SHERIDAN WY CO-OP OBSERVER

0600 PM SNOW 8 WSW DAYTON 44.81N 107.41W
11/01/2011 E12.0 INCH SHERIDAN WY MESONET

0600 PM SNOW 15 W STORY 44.57N 107.20W
11/01/2011 E12.0 INCH SHERIDAN WY MESONET

0600 PM SNOW 7 ESE BURGESS JUNCTION 44.72N 107.40W
11/01/2011 E13.0 INCH SHERIDAN WY MESONET

0600 PM SNOW 18 SE BURGESS JUNCTION 44.57N 107.29W
11/01/2011 E15.0 INCH SHERIDAN WY MESONET

&&

$$

TOMF

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KBOU [020348]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOU 020348
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
948 PM MDT TUE NOV 01 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0935 PM HEAVY SNOW 4 S MANILA VILLAGE 39.67N 104.49W
11/01/2011 M2.8 INCH ARAPAHOE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

WHITE OUT CONDITIONS

0905 PM SNOW 4 ENE NEDERLAND 39.99N 105.45W
11/01/2011 M1.5 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0847 PM SNOW 4 N LOVELAND 40.48N 105.07W
11/01/2011 M1.0 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1 PER HOUR WITH THUNDERSNOW

0847 PM HEAVY SNOW 2 NW STRASBURG 39.76N 104.33W
11/01/2011 M2.0 INCH ADAMS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

SENTREKI

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KCYS [020330]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 020330
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
930 PM MDT TUE NOV 01 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0927 PM SNOW DOUGLAS 42.76N 105.39W
11/01/2011 E3.0 INCH CONVERSE WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

STREETS MOSTLY CLEAR

0925 PM SNOW 7 E DOUGLAS 42.76N 105.25W
11/01/2011 M8.0 INCH CONVERSE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

RANGES FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES WITH SOME DEEPER DRIFTS.

0928 PM HEAVY SNOW LUSK 42.76N 104.45W
11/01/2011 E10.0 INCH NIOBRARA WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

STILL SNOWING.

&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KCYS [020232]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 020232
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
832 PM MDT TUE NOV 01 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0828 PM SNOW JAY EM 42.47N 104.36W
11/01/2011 M1.5 INCH GOSHEN WY COCORAHS

SNOW HAS AN ICE SURFACE. LIGHT SNOW ATTM.

&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KVEF [020212]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 020212
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
712 PM PDT TUE NOV 01 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0711 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 ENE BULLHEAD CITY 35.18N 114.50W
11/01/2011 M41 MPH MOHAVE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JH

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KRIW [020207]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KRIW 020207
LSRRIW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
805 PM MDT TUE NOV 01 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0701 PM HEAVY SNOW 21 W CLARK 44.94N 109.57W
11/01/2011 E9.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

BEARTOOTH LAKE SNOTEL

0701 PM HEAVY SNOW 19 WSW WAPITI 44.38N 109.79W
11/01/2011 E7.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

BLACKWATER SNOTEL

0701 PM SNOW 11 N DUBOIS 43.70N 109.67W
11/01/2011 E4.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

BURROUGHS CREEK SNOTEL

0701 PM SNOW 16 NE DUBOIS 43.67N 109.37W
11/01/2011 E3.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

CASTLE CREEK SNOTEL

0702 PM SNOW 14 NE PAHASKA 44.65N 109.78W
11/01/2011 E4.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

EVENING STAR SNOTEL

0702 PM SNOW 30 SW MEETEETSE 43.86N 109.32W
11/01/2011 E4.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

KIRWIN SNOTEL

0702 PM SNOW 18 SW CODY 44.30N 109.24W
11/01/2011 E4.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

MARQUETTE SNOTEL

0702 PM SNOW 40 W THERMOPOLIS 43.66N 109.01W
11/01/2011 E3.00 INCHES HOT SPRINGS WY MESONET

OWL CREEK SNOTEL

0702 PM SNOW 18 WSW MEETEETSE 44.03N 109.18W
11/01/2011 E4.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

TIMBER CREEK SNOTEL

0703 PM SNOW 26 WSW CLARK 44.80N 109.66W
11/01/2011 E5.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

WOLVERINE SNOTEL

0703 PM SNOW 56 SW CODY 43.93N 109.82W
11/01/2011 E4.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

YOUNTS PEAK SNOTEL

0703 PM HEAVY SNOW 28 E LOVELL 44.80N 107.84W
11/01/2011 E8.00 INCHES BIG HORN WY MESONET

BALD MOUNTAIN SNOTEL

0703 PM HEAVY SNOW 14 NE SHELL 44.68N 107.58W
11/01/2011 E9.00 INCHES BIG HORN WY MESONET

BONE SPRINGS DIVIDE SNOTEL

0703 PM SNOW 13 W BARNUM 43.63N 107.18W
11/01/2011 E3.00 INCHES WASHAKIE WY MESONET

MIDDLE POWDER SNOTEL

0704 PM SNOW 24 SW BUFFALO 44.16N 107.13W
11/01/2011 E3.00 INCHES WASHAKIE WY MESONET

POWDER RIVER PASS SNOTEL

0704 PM HEAVY SNOW 18 E SHELL 44.50N 107.43W
11/01/2011 E9.00 INCHES BIG HORN WY MESONET

SHELL CREEK SNOTEL

0704 PM HEAVY SNOW 17 W BUFFALO 44.40N 107.06W
11/01/2011 E7.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY MESONET

CLOUD PEAK RESERVOIR SNOTEL

0704 PM SNOW 21 SW BARNUM 43.47N 107.24W
11/01/2011 E3.00 INCHES NATRONA WY MESONET

GRAVE SPRING SNOTEL

0705 PM HEAVY SNOW 14 WSW BUFFALO 44.26N 106.98W
11/01/2011 E8.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY MESONET

HANSEN SAWMILL SNOTEL

0705 PM HEAVY SNOW 27 NW BUFFALO 44.54N 107.17W
11/01/2011 E13.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY MESONET

LITTLE GOOSE SNOTEL

0705 PM HEAVY SNOW 16 W BUFFALO 44.34N 107.02W
11/01/2011 E8.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY MESONET

SOLDIER PARK SNOTEL

0706 PM SNOW 24 ESE BOULDER 42.65N 109.26W
11/01/2011 E4.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

BIG SANDY OPENING SNOTEL

0706 PM SNOW 22 N CORA 43.25N 110.02W
11/01/2011 E1.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

KENDALL RANGER STATION SNOTEL

0706 PM SNOW 25 SW LANDER 42.58N 109.08W
11/01/2011 E1.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

LARSEN CREEK SNOTEL

0706 PM SNOW 12 N CORA 43.11N 109.95W
11/01/2011 E1.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

NEW FORK LAKE SNOTEL

0706 PM SNOW 16 E BOULDER 42.71N 109.41W
11/01/2011 E1.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

POCKET CREEK SNOTEL

0706 PM SNOW 14 W CROWHEART 43.28N 109.45W
11/01/2011 E3.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

COLD SPRINGS SNOTEL

0707 PM SNOW 19 SSW LANDER 42.59N 108.90W
11/01/2011 E3.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

DEER PARK SNOTEL

0707 PM SNOW 18 W LANDER 42.87N 109.09W
11/01/2011 E3.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

HOBBS PARK SNOTEL

0707 PM SNOW 7 NW ATLANTIC CITY 42.57N 108.84W
11/01/2011 E3.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

SOUTH PASS SNOTEL

0707 PM SNOW 26 NW LANDER 43.03N 109.17W
11/01/2011 E4.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

ST. LAWRENCE ALT SNOTEL

0708 PM SNOW 12 SW LANDER 42.70N 108.90W
11/01/2011 E3.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

TOWNSEND CREEK SNOTEL

0708 PM HEAVY SNOW 8 S CASPER 42.73N 106.32W
11/01/2011 E12.00 INCHES NATRONA WY MESONET

CASPER MOUNTAIN SNOTEL

0708 PM HEAVY SNOW 22 SSE CASPER 42.57N 106.09W
11/01/2011 E14.00 INCHES NATRONA WY MESONET

RENO HILL SNOTEL

0710 PM SNOW 3 NW GREEN RIVER 41.55N 109.51W
11/01/2011 M2.80 INCHES SWEETWATER WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0711 PM SNOW 6 SW LANDER 42.76N 108.79W
11/01/2011 M2.20 INCHES FREMONT WY COCORAHS

0711 PM SNOW 2 WSW CODY 44.51N 109.09W
11/01/2011 M1.00 INCHES PARK WY COCORAHS

0714 PM HEAVY SNOW 13 WSW BUFFALO 44.27N 106.94W
11/01/2011 M6.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY PUBLIC

0715 PM SNOW SADDLESTRING 44.45N 106.89W
11/01/2011 M5.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY PUBLIC

0716 PM SNOW 6 S BIG TRAILS 43.68N 107.29W
11/01/2011 M2.50 INCHES WASHAKIE WY PUBLIC

0716 PM SNOW 17 ESE THERMOPOLIS 43.56N 107.89W
11/01/2011 M2.00 INCHES HOT SPRINGS WY PUBLIC

0716 PM SNOW 9.5 SW LANDER 42.72N 108.85W
11/01/2011 M2.50 INCHES FREMONT WY PUBLIC

0717 PM SNOW LANDER 42.83N 108.72W
11/01/2011 M4.00 INCHES FREMONT WY PUBLIC

0718 PM SNOW 1 SW CASPER 42.85N 106.28W
11/01/2011 M2.50 INCHES NATRONA WY CO-OP OBSERVER

0718 PM SNOW 10 W KEMMERER 41.81N 110.71W
11/01/2011 M1.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

0720 PM SNOW CASPER 42.83N 106.32W
11/01/2011 M4.00 INCHES NATRONA WY PUBLIC

0720 PM SNOW KEMMERER 41.78N 110.54W
11/01/2011 M2.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0720 PM SNOW KAYCEE 43.71N 106.63W
11/01/2011 M1.50 INCHES JOHNSON WY PUBLIC

0721 PM SNOW PAHASKA 44.50N 109.96W
11/01/2011 M1.00 INCHES PARK WY CO-OP OBSERVER

0721 PM SNOW 5 NW DUBOIS 43.56N 109.72W
11/01/2011 M3.50 INCHES FREMONT WY PUBLIC

0721 PM SNOW DUBOIS 43.53N 109.64W
11/01/2011 M3.00 INCHES FREMONT WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0724 PM SNOW 6 W CASPER 42.88N 106.42W
11/01/2011 M4.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

CASPER AIRPORT

0726 PM SNOW WORLAND 44.00N 107.95W
11/01/2011 M1.00 INCHES WASHAKIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0726 PM SNOW 4 N TEN SLEEP 44.09N 107.44W
11/01/2011 M1.00 INCHES WASHAKIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0726 PM SNOW 14 SSE TEN SLEEP 43.86N 107.30W
11/01/2011 M4.00 INCHES WASHAKIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0726 PM SNOW 9 SW BIG TRAILS 43.65N 107.37W
11/01/2011 M3.00 INCHES WASHAKIE WY PUBLIC

0727 PM SNOW SWEETWATER STATION 42.54N 108.18W
11/01/2011 M2.50 INCHES FREMONT WY PUBLIC

0727 PM SNOW JEFFREY CITY 42.49N 107.82W
11/01/2011 M5.00 INCHES FREMONT WY CO-OP OBSERVER

0727 PM HEAVY SNOW 3 SW CASPER 42.81N 106.34W
11/01/2011 M6.00 INCHES NATRONA WY PUBLIC

0728 PM HEAVY SNOW CASPER 42.85N 106.33W
11/01/2011 M6.50 INCHES NATRONA WY BROADCAST MEDIA

0728 PM SNOW CASPER 42.84N 106.31W
11/01/2011 M4.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0728 PM SNOW CASPER 42.83N 106.34W
11/01/2011 M4.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0729 PM SNOW 19 SW BIG TRAILS 43.54N 107.52W
11/01/2011 M3.50 INCHES WASHAKIE WY PUBLIC

0729 PM SNOW MIDWEST 43.41N 106.27W
11/01/2011 M1.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0729 PM SNOW MIDWEST 43.41N 106.27W
11/01/2011 M1.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0729 PM SNOW 1 W LANDER 42.82N 108.74W
11/01/2011 M4.00 INCHES FREMONT WY COCORAHS

0749 PM HEAVY SNOW WAMSUTTER 41.66N 107.96W
11/01/2011 M8.50 INCHES SWEETWATER WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0749 PM SNOW ROCK SPRINGS 41.57N 109.21W
11/01/2011 M3.00 INCHES SWEETWATER WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0749 PM SNOW ROCK SPRINGS 41.57N 109.21W
11/01/2011 M4.00 INCHES SWEETWATER WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0753 PM SNOW 2 SSE ROCK SPRINGS 41.57N 109.21W
11/01/2011 M3.50 INCHES SWEETWATER WY COCORAHS

0756 PM SNOW GREEN RIVER 41.52N 109.46W
11/01/2011 M2.50 INCHES SWEETWATER WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

0757 PM SNOW GREEN RIVER 41.52N 109.46W
11/01/2011 M2.50 INCHES SWEETWATER WY PUBLIC

&&

$$

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KSLC [020156]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 020156
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
732 PM MDT TUE NOV 01 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0504 PM NON-TSTM WND GST HARRISBURG 37.22N 113.38W
11/01/2011 M63 MPH WASHINGTON UT MESONET

WHITE REEF - 3440 FT

&&

$$

ROGOWSKI

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2283

ACUS11 KWNS 020114
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020113
COZ000-WYZ000-020615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2283
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0813 PM CDT TUE NOV 01 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ROCKIES OF SRN WY AND NRN/CNTRL CO...AS WELL AS THE
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD

VALID 020113Z - 020615Z

BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES TO 2 IN/HR WILL DEVELOP FROM N TO S
OVER THE ROCKIES OF SRN WY AND NRN/CNTRL CO...AS WELL THE ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE CO HIGH PLAINS...PRIMARILY
AFTER 06Z.

WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A POTENT MID/UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE WITHIN THE
BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...WITH AN ATTENDANT
250-MB JET STREAK FEATURING SWLY CORE WINDS AROUND 120 KT OVER CO.
STRONG ASCENT WITHIN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE AUGMENTED
BY DOWNSTREAM DCVA...COUPLED WITH A NNWWD-SLOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL INDUCE A STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION OVER THE
ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. ATTENDANT LOW-LEVEL ASCENT WILL
ALLOW WSW-ENE-ORIENTED SNOW BANDS TO DEVELOP SWD DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...AIDED BY INCREASING SLANTWISE CONVECTION. SNOWFALL
RATES TO 2 IN/HR WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN THESE SNOW BANDS...HIGHEST
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW.

MEANWHILE...THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
STRENGTHENING ELY/UPSLOPE FLOW AS AN ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO SFC
PRESSURE RISES TO THE E/NE. IN TURN...ADIABATIC COOLING AND AN
ASSOCIATED MESO-RIDGE AND BARRIER JET WILL DEVELOP JUST EAST OF THE
FRONT RANGE...WHICH IS ALREADY BEING MANIFESTED IN THE PRONOUNCED
NLY SURGE AND PRESSURE RISES OBSERVED INVOF DENVER. THIS WILL ALLOW
SUBFREEZING AIR IN SERN WY TO QUICKLY SURGE SWD JUST EAST OF THE
FRONT RANGE AND SUPPORT SNOW...WHILE ALSO STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT FOR PARCELS WITH TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM THE EAST. THIS
WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES FROM FORT COLLINS TO DENVER AFTER 05Z.
FARTHER EAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF NERN/E-CNTRL CO...SNOWFALL
RATES MAY ONLY REACH 1 IN/HR. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED
MESO-RIDGE WILL TIGHTEN THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT SUFFICIENTLY
TO PRODUCE NLY TO NELY WINDS TO 35 MPH WITH FREQUENTLY HIGHER GUSTS.
THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW TO GENERATE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...PREDOMINANTLY AFTER 06Z. THE SNOW AND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WHILE
TAPERING OFF FROM N TO S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

..COHEN.. 11/02/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...GJT...

LAT...LON 38250618 39260663 40410674 41250640 41470592 41430535
40940419 40760327 40500233 39540222 38460342 37860531
38250618

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KCYS [020105]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 020105
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
705 PM MDT TUE NOV 01 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0650 PM SNOW 10 N CHEYENNE 41.29N 104.79W
11/01/2011 M4.5 INCH LARAMIE WY COCORAHS

DEPTH RANGES FROM 4.5 TO 3.5 INCHES.1 INCH FELL IN THE
LAST 55 MIN.

&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 020054
SWODY1
SPC AC 020052

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CDT TUE NOV 01 2011

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN UT/WRN CO...
LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED A FEW TSTMS HAD DEVELOPED EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS SERN UT ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THIS REGION. ASCENT
ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTENDANT TO DCVA ALOFT WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
YET THIS EVENING OVER SERN UT INTO PARTS OF WRN CO.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ELEVATED
TSTMS LATER TONIGHT /MAINLY AFTER 06Z/ ACROSS THIS REGION WITH
ACTIVITY TENDING TO DEVELOP FROM W-E. LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED A FRONT EXTENDING FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
SWWD THROUGH IA...NERN-SWRN KS...AND THEN BACKED NNWWD INTO THE CO
ROCKIES. A SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER SERN CO WILL MOVE ESEWD THROUGH
THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES TONIGHT AS THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT MOVES
SWD. WIND PROFILERS IN SRN KS TO W TX INDICATED THE LOWEST 1-2 KM
AGL WINDS HAVE BACKED TO SLY...WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN SPEED
EXPECTED TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSES INTO CO/NRN NM. STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD FROM THE
ROCKIES ALONG AND N OF THE PLAINS FRONT AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MUCAPE UP TO 250-500 J/KG
BASED IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. INCREASING ASCENT WITH LOW-LEVEL
WAA/FRONTOGENESIS AND DCVA ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SATURATION FOR LIFTED
PARCELS LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSTMS.

..PETERS.. 11/02/2011

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KCYS [020052]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 020052
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
652 PM MDT TUE NOV 01 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM SNOW 4 N WHEATLAND 42.11N 104.96W
11/01/2011 M2.0 INCH PLATTE WY CO-OP OBSERVER

0.15 LIQUID. STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY

&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KUNR [020037]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 020037
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
637 PM MDT TUE NOV 01 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM SNOW DOWNTOWN GILLETTE 44.29N 105.50W
11/01/2011 M0.5 INCH CAMPBELL WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0600 PM SNOW LEAD 44.35N 103.77W
11/01/2011 M2.2 INCH LAWRENCE SD CO-OP OBSERVER

0610 PM SNOW 1 SSW DOWNTOWN CUSTER 43.75N 103.61W
11/01/2011 M1.0 INCH CUSTER SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0615 PM SNOW 1 NW OGLALA 43.19N 102.74W
11/01/2011 E1.0 INCH SHANNON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0623 PM SNOW 1 N EDGEMONT 43.31N 103.83W
11/01/2011 M1.5 INCH FALL RIVER SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0625 PM SNOW 1 WSW DOWNTOWN NEWCASTL 43.85N 104.23W
11/01/2011 M0.5 INCH WESTON WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0625 PM SNOW 1 NE WRIGHT 43.76N 105.48W
11/01/2011 E0.8 INCH CAMPBELL WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0630 PM SNOW 1 E BUCKHORN 44.15N 104.08W
11/01/2011 E1.5 INCH WESTON WY TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MERICKSO

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KVEF [020035]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 020035
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
535 PM PDT TUE NOV 01 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1142 AM NON-TSTM WND GST OAK CREEK RAWS 36.84N 118.26W
11/01/2011 M43 MPH INYO CA MESONET

0227 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ORIENTAL WASH RAWS 37.23N 117.50W
11/01/2011 M47 MPH ESMERALDA NV MESONET

0451 PM NON-TSTM WND GST HORSE THIEF SPRINGS RAW 35.77N 115.91W
11/01/2011 M44 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

&&

$$

JH

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KCYS [012345]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 012345
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
545 PM MDT TUE NOV 01 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0543 PM HEAVY SNOW 34 NE RAWLINS 42.13N 106.76W
11/01/2011 M11.0 INCH CARBON WY CO-OP OBSERVER

DEPTH RANGES FROM 10 TO 11 INCHES. SNOWING LIGHTLY ATTM.

&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KCYS [012339]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 012339
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
539 PM MDT TUE NOV 01 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM SNOW 10 N CHEYENNE 41.29N 104.79W
11/01/2011 M1.2 INCH LARAMIE WY COCORAHS

1.2 INCHES OF NOW FELL IN THE LAST 45 MIN. VISIBILITY 1/4
TO 1/2 MI. ROADS SNOW COVERED. SNOW BEGAN 4 PM.

&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KCYS [012327]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 012327
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
527 PM MDT TUE NOV 01 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 PM SNOW 16 SSE SARATOGA 41.24N 106.69W
11/01/2011 E4.0 INCH CARBON WY CO-OP OBSERVER

STILL SNOWING FAIRLY HEAVY.

&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011945
SWODY1
SPC AC 011943

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT TUE NOV 01 2011

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS BEING
MADE THIS FORECAST TO THE TWO THUNDER AREAS. A FEW STRIKES REMAIN
POSSIBLE AS THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

..GOSS.. 11/01/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT TUE NOV 01 2011/

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NV THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS EWD TO CO/NRN
NM BY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS. A LEE CYCLONE WILL
DEVELOP SWD/SSEWD FROM SE CO TO NE NM THIS EVENING...AND THEN BEGIN
TO MOVE EWD LATE TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGES OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. MOISTURE RETURN WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED THROUGH TONIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF A RECENT
FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

SUFFICIENT LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LAPSE
RATES ACCOMPANYING THE GREAT BASIN MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A
RISK FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM UT INTO W/NW CO.
OVERNIGHT...STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH A 40-50 KT
LLJ...WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MUCAPE OF AT LEAST 250-500
J/KG BASED IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. INCREASING ASCENT WITH
LOW-LEVEL WAA/FRONTOGENESIS AND DCVA ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SATURATION
FOR LIFTED PARCELS LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 06-12Z.

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KVEF [011841]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 011841
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1141 AM PDT TUE NOV 01 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0951 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BISHOP AIRPORT 37.37N 118.36W
11/01/2011 M51.00 MPH INYO CA ASOS

&&

$$

STACHELSKI

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 011725
SWODY2
SPC AC 011724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT TUE NOV 01 2011

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/LOW WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY REGION LATE. MEANWHILE...A SECOND/LARGER TROUGH WILL DIG
SEWD OUT OF THE GULF OF AK AND INTO WRN NOAM THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OUT OF THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS AND ENEWD INTO SERN MO LATE -- ROUGHLY ALONG THE AXIS
WHERE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIE. AS THE LOW SHIFTS
ENEWD...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS SEWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS AND INTO THE WRN GULF LATE. MEANWHILE...A SECOND COLD FRONT
-- ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING WRN NOAM -- WILL MOVE
INLAND...CROSSING THE PAC NW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS PERIOD WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS A SWATH OF
THE CENTRAL U.S. FROM KS AND VICINITY EWD INTO MO AND ADJACENT AREAS
-- MAINLY TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT AS WARM ADVECTION
COMBINES WITH HIGHLY-ELEVATED CAPE TO YIELD SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS. CAPE IS HOWEVER PROGGED TO REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY MORE
THAN SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL.

IN THE PAC NW...COOL AIR ALOFT/STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING
ONSHORE WILL SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES
ALONG THE COAST -- WITHIN LARGER AREA OF SHALLOWER CONVECTION.

..GOSS.. 11/01/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011622
SWODY1
SPC AC 011621

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT TUE NOV 01 2011

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NV THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS EWD TO CO/NRN
NM BY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS. A LEE CYCLONE WILL
DEVELOP SWD/SSEWD FROM SE CO TO NE NM THIS EVENING...AND THEN BEGIN
TO MOVE EWD LATE TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGES OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. MOISTURE RETURN WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED THROUGH TONIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF A RECENT
FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

SUFFICIENT LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LAPSE
RATES ACCOMPANYING THE GREAT BASIN MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A
RISK FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM UT INTO W/NW CO.
OVERNIGHT...STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH A 40-50 KT
LLJ...WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MUCAPE OF AT LEAST 250-500
J/KG BASED IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. INCREASING ASCENT WITH
LOW-LEVEL WAA/FRONTOGENESIS AND DCVA ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SATURATION
FOR LIFTED PARCELS LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 06-12Z.

..THOMPSON/SMITH.. 11/01/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011235
SWODY1
SPC AC 011234

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 AM CDT TUE NOV 01 2011

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN
CA COASTS WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS THROUGH BASAL PORTION OF MIDLEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO GREAT BASIN.
A RESULTANT AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH A CORRIDOR
OF HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING FROM THE GREAT
BASIN INTO CNTRL/ERN HIGH PLAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO LOW
PRESSURE OVER WRN KS AND THEN WWD THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO
GREAT BASIN WILL ACCORDINGLY STRENGTHEN WHILE ADVANCING SEWD.

...CNTRL PLAINS...

A DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS ACROSS PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WILL
INHIBIT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT TODAY...DESPITE STRONG
DIABATIC WARMING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS WILL
INCREASE AFTER 02/06-09Z AS SFC-850 MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
COUPLES WITH INCREASING DCVA IN ADVANCE OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE PROCESSES SHOULD ALLOW SUFFICIENT MOISTENING
TO YIELD A WEAKLY BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT FOR PARCELS LIFTED FROM THE
800-700 MB LAYER.

...GREAT BASIN...

12Z LKN SOUNDINGS APPEARS TO BE QUITE REPRESENTATIVE OF AMBIENT
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WHICH HAS SUSTAINED SPORADIC LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF NV EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE
AVAILABLE DATA...THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE BASED AROUND 600 MB
WITHIN SHALLOW LAYER OF WEAK INSTABILITY WHICH EXTENDS UPWARD
THROUGH THAT PORTION OF THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WHICH SUPPORTS
CHARGE SEPARATION. GIVEN THAT THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY TODAY --AS MENTIONED ABOVE-- EXPECT SPORADIC LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE...GRADUALLY SPREADING EWD TOWARD THE CNTRL
ROCKIES.

..MEAD/HURLBUT.. 11/01/2011

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 010821
SWOD48
SPC AC 010821

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 AM CDT TUE NOV 01 2011

VALID 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
BEGINNING ON FRI/D4...AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE. A LEAD TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SERN CONUS. MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW AMPLIFIED THIS TROUGH WILL BE AT THIS TIME...BUT IT
WILL BE IRRELEVANT IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL AS INSTABILITY WILL
BE MINIMAL...AND...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING OFFSHORE. BEHIND
THIS TROUGH...A SPRAWLING AREA OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENCOMPASS
THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS.

THIS DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH...WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS THE MORNING OF SAT/D5. THE ECMWF
MODEL HAS SLOWED DOWN THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM...NEARLY 12 HRS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS DETERMINISTIC MODEL. REGARDLESS OF WHICH
SOLUTION IS CLOSER TO REALITY...THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY 40S AND 50S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OVER OK
AND KS. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST INTO CNTRL/SRN TX...BUT APART
FROM THE MAIN FORCING.

ON SUN/D6...THIS TROUGH WILL LOSE MOST OF ITS AMPLITUDE AS IT
CONTINUES NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING A BROAD AREA OF SWLY
FLOW BEHIND EXTENDING SWWD TO THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE SWRN U.S. ON MON/D7. THIS WILL BE A MORE FAVORABLE REGIME
TO ADVECT SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWD INTO THE PLAINS...WITH
AT LEAST LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS LIKELY AS FAR N AS OK AND KS MON
AFTERNOON. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RAPID WARM
ADVECTION...HOWEVER...WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY. SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES
EXIST AT D7 NOT TO INTRODUCE ANY SEVERE AREAS. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN...AND ALSO DIFFERENCES
IN MOISTURE RETURN MAGNITUDE...WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE BULLISH AND
THE ECMWF MUCH LESS SO.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS MON NIGHT
INTO TUE/D8...AND THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE THE MOST ACTIVE SEVERE
DAY. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WILL HAVE LESSER CHANCE FOR FAILURE GIVEN
A LONGER DURATION OF MOISTURE RETURN AND SUCH A BROAD BELT OF SWLY
FLOW/SHEAR FORECAST BY THE MODELS. AT THIS POINT...TIMING AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH IS THE MAIN ISSUE...WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON D7-D8 ANYWHERE FROM TEXAS NEWD INTO MO AND SRN IL. FOR
NOW...PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO CONFIDENTLY PLACE ANY SEVERE
AREAS.

..JEWELL.. 11/01/2011

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 010547
SWODY3
SPC AC 010546

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT TUE NOV 01 2011

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY THU
MORNING RAPIDLY EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY FRI MORNING...WITH
A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS IND AND OH DURING THE DAY. STRONG
FORCING WILL EXIST WITH THIS LOW AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT...BUT
THERE WILL BE NO INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE E COAST...A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW WILL FORM
OFFSHORE...WITH THUNDERSTORMS THERE.

TO THE W...A VERY LARGE AND COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SWD OVER THE
PACIFIC COASTAL STATES...WITH A 100-120 KT MID LEVEL JET MAX ON THE
BACK SIDE. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE PROFILES WILL EXIST OVER THE
PACIFIC NW...CA AND NV...BUT LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT EXCEPT FOR OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN WITH A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST.

..JEWELL.. 11/01/2011

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 010522
SWODY2
SPC AC 010521

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 AM CDT TUE NOV 01 2011

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS
THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND INTO MID MS AND OH VALLEYS BY
THU MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM WRN OK TOWARDS ST. LOUIS BY 00Z...FURTHER DEEPENING OVERNIGHT
OVER IL/IND. MEANWHILE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOL AIR SWD
ACROSS KS/OK/TX...WITH A 1035 MB HIGH SETTLING INTO THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

TO THE W...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE PACIFIC NW
WITH RAPID COOLING ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH A COLD FRONT
COMING ASHORE BY AROUND 00Z. HERE...POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND SHALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE OFFSHORE BUT MAY AFFECT COASTAL AREAS
OVERNIGHT.

...SERN NEB...ERN KS...WRN MO...NERN OK...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING OVER
ERN NEB AND KS EARLY WED...FORCED BY WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND FORCING
ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY ELEVATED WITH UNSTABLE PARCELS
ORIGINATING WELL ABOVE 850 MB. RESULTANT WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE HAIL THREAT...ALTHOUGH SOME VERY SMALL HAIL MAY
OCCUR GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURE PROFILES SFC AND ALOFT...AS WELL AS
FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR FOR A FEW CONSOLIDATED UPDRAFTS.

..JEWELL.. 11/01/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 010521
SWODY1
SPC AC 010519

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 AM CDT TUE NOV 01 2011

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH THE ERN
STATES...WILL UNDERGO FURTHER DEAMPLIFICATION AS IT MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST TODAY. MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM FLOW ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CONUS WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS A
POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE NWRN STATES ADVANCES
INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT
TO THE LATTER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ARC FROM NRN MN THROUGH CENTRAL
NEB TO THE GREAT BASIN AT 12Z TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EWD
THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND SWD THROUGH MUCH OF KS...EXTENDING
FROM ERN WI SWWD THROUGH NRN MO...ERN KS TO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR TSTMS REMAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.../MAINLY AFTER 06Z/...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
BE ELEVATED AND LIMITED IN COVERAGE AS IT DEVELOPS FROM W-E.

THE SRN EXTENT OF THE POSITIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO DIG SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES AFTER 02/00Z...WITH 60-90
METER 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN
HIGH PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MASS FIELD RESPONSE WILL
RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ ACROSS W TX AND OK AND A
SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN WAA INTO KS. ALTHOUGH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE
CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES TROUGH...MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN INTO THIS REGION
WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AOB 250 J PER
KG/ TONIGHT...SUPPORTING A FEW POST FRONTAL TSTMS. THE WEAK
INSTABILITY AND WEAK BULK SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

...GREAT BASIN TO WRN CO...
A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS
ALONG THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND WRN CO
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A
GENERAL TSTM AREA.

..PETERS/COHEN.. 11/01/2011

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KMHX [010430]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 010430
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1230 AM EDT TUE NOV 01 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1135 PM HAIL OCRACOKE 35.10N 75.98W
10/31/2011 E0.25 INCH HYDE NC PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1100416

$$

BC

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