KCYS [250213]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 250213
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
713 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1253 PM NON-TSTM WND GST DOUGLAS 42.76N 105.39W
02/24/2009 M60 MPH CONVERSE WY ASOS

SUST 40 MPH

0200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BORDEAUX 41.95N 104.95W
02/24/2009 M60 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUST 44 MPH GUSTS 57 TO 60 MPH 120 PM TO 2 PM

1025 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
02/24/2009 M54 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUST AT 43 MPH

&&

$$

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KTFX [250130]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 250130
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
630 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1154 AM NON-TSTM WND GST DILLON 45.22N 112.63W
02/24/2009 M51.00 MPH BEAVERHEAD MT ASOS

MEASURED PEAK WIND GUST OF 51 MPH AT 1154 AM MST.

1156 AM NON-TSTM WND GST GREAT FALLS 47.50N 111.29W
02/24/2009 M53.00 MPH CASCADE MT ASOS

PEAK WIND GUST OF 53 MPH AT 1156 AM MST.

0245 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 W TOWNSEND 46.32N 111.69W
02/24/2009 M50.00 MPH BROADWATER MT MESONET

RAWS MEASURED 50 MPH WIND GUST AT ELKHORN.

&&

$$

MSYNER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 250035
SWODY1
SPC AC 250032

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0632 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2009

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN PLAINS...

WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL TRANSLATE EWD ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER
OVERNIGHT AS MT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE DAKOTAS. SUSTAINED
LIFT/MOISTENING ALONG/WITHIN POST FRONTAL ZONE IS ENHANCING MID
LEVEL CONVECTION ACROSS SERN MT WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
RECENTLY DEVELOPED. THIS ZONE OF FAVORED ASCENT/CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS SD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE
WARM ADVECTION MAY ENHANCE THE PROSPECTS FOR A FEW MORE
THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 700MB
ARE SUFFICIENTLY BUOYANT FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION CAPABLE OF LIGHTNING
DISCHARGE...HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD PROVE TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK.

..DARROW.. 02/25/2009

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KPIH [250031]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 250031
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
530 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0222 PM FLOOD 6 NW RUPERT 42.68N 113.76W
02/24/2009 MINIDOKA ID EMERGENCY MNGR

ROAD 600 WEST IS CLOSED BETWEEN 600N AND 900N DUE TO
FLOODING BECAUSE OF RECENT RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

$$

TWYATT

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KPIH [242317]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 242317
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
417 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0413 PM FLOOD LAVA HOT SPRINGS 42.62N 112.01W
02/24/2009 BANNOCK ID EMERGENCY MNGR

A HOUSE NEAR LAVA HOT SPRINGS EXPERIENCED SOME FLOODING
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM RAPID SNOW MELT, RUN OFF AND
PONDING OF WATER.

&&

$$

RSURVICK

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KPIH [242251]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 242251
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
351 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM FLOOD 16 NE AMERICAN FALLS 42.95N 112.63W
02/24/2009 POWER ID LAW ENFORCEMENT

RAIN SHOWERS AND RAPID SNOW MELT CAUSING MINOR FLOODING
OF FIELDS. ROADS AND STRUCTURES ARE NOT AFFECTED.

&&

$$

RSURVICK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 242006
SWODY1
SPC AC 241945

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2009

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

WITHIN THE NRN STREAM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND WILL REACH THE NRN PLAINS LATER TONIGHT.
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM ARE PRESENT IN
ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...AND VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS SRN MT. OTHER CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE NRN PLAINS AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES EAST AND LIFT INCREASES ABOVE A SWD MOVING SHALLOW
COLD FRONT WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOB 10%
DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.

..DIAL.. 02/24/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241948
SWODY1
SPC AC 241945

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2009

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

WITHIN THE NRN STREAM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND WILL REACH THE NRN PLAINS LATER TONIGHT.
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM ARE PRESENT IN
ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...AND VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS SRN MT. OTHER CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE NRN PLAINS AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES EAST AND LIFT INCREASES ABOVE A SWD MOVING SHALLOW
COLD FRONT WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOB 10%
DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.

..DIAL.. 02/24/2009

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KREV [241817]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KREV 241817
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1015 AM PST TUE FEB 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0115 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 S WASHOE CITY 39.29N 119.81W
02/23/2009 M64.00 MPH WASHOE NV DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

AT WASHOE VALLEY NDOT SITE. EL. 5041 FT.

0137 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 N RENO 39.61N 119.82W
02/23/2009 M45.00 MPH WASHOE NV OFFICIAL NWS OBS

AT NWS OFFICE. EL. 4950 FT.

0203 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 SW RENO 39.44N 119.96W
02/23/2009 M75.00 MPH WASHOE NV MESONET

PEAK GUST AT GALENA RAWS. EL. 5610 FT. GUSTS 60-72 MPH
BETWEEN 1 PM AND 5 AM.

0500 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SW RENO 39.46N 119.93W
02/23/2009 M55.00 MPH WASHOE NV MESONET

OFF ZOLEZZI RD IN SW RENO.

0500 PM NON-TSTM WND GST RENO 39.54N 119.82W
02/23/2009 M49.00 MPH WASHOE NV ASOS

0511 PM NON-TSTM WND GST DOYLE 40.02N 120.10W
02/23/2009 M55.00 MPH LASSEN CA MESONET

AT DOYLE RAWS. EL 4320 FT.

0624 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 S PROSSER CREEK RESER 39.32N 120.18W
02/23/2009 E65.00 MPH NEVADA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

0950 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 E GARDNERVILLE 38.94N 119.65W
02/23/2009 M48.00 MPH DOUGLAS NV TRAINED SPOTTER

1011 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 N RENO 39.61N 119.82W
02/23/2009 M48.00 MPH WASHOE NV OFFICIAL NWS OBS

AT NWS OFFICE. EL 4950 FT.

1045 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 NNW RENO 39.63N 119.87W
02/23/2009 M57.00 MPH WASHOE NV MESONET

BLACK SPRINGS NDOT WIND SENSOR. ELEVATION 5173 FT. GUSTS
45-55 MPH BETWEEN 730 AND 1130 PM.

1220 AM NON-TSTM WND GST NW CARSON CITY 39.17N 119.76W
02/24/2009 M59.00 MPH CARSON CITY NV MESONET

DRI WIND SENSOR AT WESTERN NV COMMUNITY COLLEGE.
ELEVATION 5035 FT.

0100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST SUTCLIFFE 39.95N 119.60W
02/24/2009 M60.00 MPH WASHOE NV MESONET

WIND SENSOR AT PYRAMID LAKE FISHERY.

0133 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 E GARDNERVILLE 38.94N 119.64W
02/24/2009 M55.00 MPH DOUGLAS NV MESONET

FISH SPRINGS RAWS AT 5230 FT. GUSTS 45-55 MPH BETWEEN 930
PM AND 230 AM.

0150 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 WNW LEE VINING 37.99N 119.22W
02/24/2009 E128 MPH MONO CA MESONET

DRI RIDGE TOP WIND SENSOR AT MT WARREN. ELEVATION 12327
FT. FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 100 MPH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 8
AM.

0431 AM NON-TSTM WND GST NEW WASHOE CITY 39.30N 119.77W
02/24/2009 M59.00 MPH WASHOE NV MESONET

ELEVATION 5079 FT. GUSTS 45-55 MPH BETWEEN 1230 AND 515
AM.

0455 AM NON-TSTM WND GST SILVER SPRINGS 39.42N 119.22W
02/24/2009 M52.00 MPH LYON NV MESONET

0515 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 S WASHOE CITY 39.29N 119.81W
02/24/2009 M72.00 MPH WASHOE NV MESONET

WASHOE VALLEY NDOT WIND SENSOR. FREQUENT GUSTS 60-70 MPH
BETWEEN 8 PM AND 545 AM.

0527 AM NON-TSTM WND GST RENO 39.54N 119.82W
02/24/2009 M59.00 MPH WASHOE NV ASOS

PEAK GUST AT RENO AIRPORT.

&&

$$

MDEUTSCH

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 241723
SWODY2
SPC AC 241720

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2009

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRIMARY
FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NE PACIFIC NEAR
36 N AND 138 W THAT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS
VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETREAT ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD WHILE A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY.

...CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY REGION...

SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITHIN GRADIENT BETWEEN RETREATING SURFACE
HIGH AND DEVELOPING LEE LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN AXIS OF PARTIALLY
MODIFIED GULF AIR RETURNING NWD THROUGH A PORTION OF THE SRN PLAINS
AND MS VALLEY REGION BENEATH EWD ADVANCING PLUME OF STEEPER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AS A RESULT OF THESE PROCESSES. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
CAPPED OVER MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR INCLUDING MOST OF OK AND TX
WHERE WARMER AIR IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL EXIST.
HOWEVER...INCREASING ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS SHOULD PROMOTE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ON NERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES WHERE THE CAP WILL BE WEAKER.

THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COLD AIR ALOFT...AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT MAY SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED SMALL TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR.

..DIAL.. 02/24/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241618
SWODY1
SPC AC 241614

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2009

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS HAS LOST AMPLITUDE DURING THE PAST
1-2 DAYS...AND WILL BE LARGELY ZONAL THROUGH TOMORROW. WITHIN THE
NRN STREAM...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL PROGRESS
EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS BY TONIGHT.
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM ARE PRESENT IN
ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AREA...AND VERY
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
SRN MT. HOWEVER...LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAPE SHOULD REMAIN TOO
LIMITED TO JUSTIFY ADDING AN OUTLOOK AREA.

ELSEWHERE...A BAND OF SHALLOW MID LEVEL CONVECTION OVER SE KS/SW MO
PRECEDES A LOW AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM SPEED MAX MOVING ESEWD OVER
KS/OK. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR
LIGHTNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..THOMPSON.. 02/24/2009

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KMQT [241605]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 241605
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1105 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM SNOW 9 SE COOKS 45.83N 86.34W
02/24/2009 M3.0 INCH SCHOOLCRAFT MI CO-OP OBSERVER

FELL IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.

&&

$$

AJK

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KMFR [241458]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 241458
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
658 AM PST TUE FEB 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 AM HEAVY RAIN N LANGLOIS 42.93N 124.45W
02/24/2009 M1.33 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL

&&

$$

SPILDE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241241
SWODY1
SPC AC 241239

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2009

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT ENEWD
ACROSS THE PAC NW TODAY AND THE NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS
IMPULSE...INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
MAINTAIN PLUME OF MOIST CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION EXTENDING ACROSS
THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTO PORTIONS OF ERN MT/NRN WY TODAY...AND
SPREADING OVER THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN...BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO
WEAK FOR MORE THAN A SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKE WITHIN BROADER PLUME
OF MOIST CONVECTION. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 144 FOR RELATED
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.

..EVANS.. 02/24/2009

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0144

ACUS11 KWNS 241155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241155
MTZ000-241630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0144
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0555 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN MT.

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 241155Z - 241630Z

PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN...CONTAINING LOCALIZED RATES AROUND
.05 INCH/HOUR...MAY SHIFT GENERALLY W-E ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH
MID-MORNING LOCAL TIME...OR ABOUT 15-16Z.

UPPER LOW -- HAVING MOVED ONSHORE WA COAST DURING PAST FEW HOURS --
IS FCST TO DEAMPLIFY INTO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH AND PIVOT ENEWD-EWD
ACROSS ID PANHANDLE REGION THROUGH 18Z. AT SFC...11Z ANALYSIS SHOWS
LOW OVER CENTRAL MT VICINITY LWT...WHICH IS FCST TO PROPAGATE SEWD
ALONG WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE THAT EXTENDS SEWD ACROSS
CARTER COUNTY. FREEZING LINE WAS ANALYZED JUST N OF THAT
FRONT...AND SHOULD MOVE ONLY IN LOCALIZED/WAVY FASHION AS WAA AND
WET BULB EFFECTS FROM PRECIP ACT AS THERMAL COUNTERBALANCES. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENTLY DEEP WARM LAYER -- ABOVE SHALLOW AIR
MASS N OF WARM FRONT -- TO SUPPORT MELTING OF PRECIP GENERATED AS
SNOW ALOFT. FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW INVOF NRN
FRINGES OF DISCUSSION AREA WHERE WARM LAYER BECOMES WEAKER AND
SHALLOWER TO NONEXISTENT.

PRIND PRECIP COVERAGE WILL INCREASE WITH TIME N OF FREEZING LINE AS
STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION OCCURS IN ADVANCE
OF UPPER TROUGH. THIS INCLUDES BOTH DPVA ALOFT...AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IN 297-300K LAYER ACCOMPANYING ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME.
ASSOCIATED STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT
EMBEDDED/CONVECTIVE PRECIP THAT COULD BOOST RATES ON VERY
SHORT-LIVED/LOCALIZED BASIS TO AROUND .1 INCH/HOUR. WHILE
BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PER DAY-1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK...MOST AREAS APPEAR MRGL FOR AOA .05 INCH/HOUR RATES AND
OVERALL THUNDER PROBABILITIES ARE VERY SMALL. MAIN FACTOR
PREVENTING HEAVIER RATES WILL BE LACK OF MORE ROBUST MOISTURE ABOVE
SFC...IN LEE OF NRN ROCKIES.

..EDWARDS.. 02/24/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON 46510553 46410591 46520845 47460897 47610937 47151027
47171121 47531139 47851112 48550966 48580819 48410708
48070542 47740477 47290424 46610454 46510553

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KMQT [241139]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 241139
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
639 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 AM SNOW MUNISING 46.41N 86.65W
02/24/2009 M3.0 INCH ALGER MI CO-OP OBSERVER

FELL IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. SNOW DEPTH 44 INCHES.

&&

$$

AJK

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 240826
SWOD48
SPC AC 240826

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2009

VALID 271200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO A LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AND LARGE RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

...DAY 4...
FAST MOVING/LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT QUICKLY NEWD
FRIDAY OUT OF THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST/QUEBEC...WITH
BOTH ECMWF AND OPERATION GFS MOVING STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT EWD TO
ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/HEATING AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE SCANT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND PRECLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ATTM. ALTHOUGH...STRONG FLOW AND DEEP ASCENT ALONG FRONT MAY
SUPPORT RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH SHALLOW MOIST CONVECTION FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS SHOULD BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZE.

TAIL END OF SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OR SLOW ITS SEWD
MOTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS MODIFIED GULF
MOISTURE INCREASES OUT OF THE G.O.M. AND AREA IS OVERRIDDEN BY 50+
KT WLY H5 WINDS. GIVEN DEGREE OF MODEL DISCREPANCIES...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT OUTLOOK ATTM.

...DAY 5-8...
THOUGH BOTH ECMWF AND GFS AGREE IN LONGWAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
ERN U.S. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT IN
THE HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL HELP CARVE OUT THE
LARGER TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MREF INDICATES
SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD IN ITS MEMBERS AT H5 BEYOND 96 HRS. ECMWF IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT
DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT EWD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN DISCREPANCIES IN
FORECAST STRENGTH/LOCATION OF TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW/FRONT...PREDICTABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW ATTM TO WARRANT AN
OUTLOOK.

..EVANS.. 02/24/2009

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 240732
SWODY3
SPC AC 240729

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2009

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID-MO VALLEY/OZARKS/LOWER OH VALLEY...
A SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE PLAINS
STATES THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE MS VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. A LOW-LEVEL
JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN NWD INTO THE OZARKS AND MID-MS VALLEY
DURING THE DAY. CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG THE AXIS OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET THURSDAY MORNING WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ELEVATED. SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE OZARKS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SFC
TEMPS WARM AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL
PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOW COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR WHICH MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK SUGGESTING THE
THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL. BY EVENING...THE MODELS FORECAST
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM WRN KY WSWWD INTO AR WHERE SFC
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE HIGHER. IF THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IS
REASONABLE...THIS ACTIVITY COULD HAVE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH
WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL POSSIBLE.

..BROYLES.. 02/24/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 240553
SWODY1
SPC AC 240552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CST MON FEB 23 2009

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CONUS TODAY. AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
LATE TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO OPEN/WEAKEN AND QUICKLY
PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...REACHING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT.

...MT...
PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATTENDANT TO AFOREMENTIONED
EAST-ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK
BUOYANCY/CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOME TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND/OR IMMEDIATELY NORTH ON THE
COLD SIDE OF A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN MT...WHERE MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCAPE OF A COUPLE HUNDRED
J/KG.

..GUYER.. 02/24/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 240539
SWODY2
SPC AC 240538

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 PM CST MON FEB 23 2009

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR WORDING

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE ERN STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE PLAINS LATE. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL ORGANIZE IN THE PLAINS AND OZARKS RESULTING IN MOISTURE RETURN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD PROMOTE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE MID-MO VALLEY AND OZARKS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS ACTIVITY UNORGANIZED.
ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD.

..BROYLES.. 02/24/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 240536
SWODY2
SPC AC 240533

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 PM CST MON FEB 23 2009

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE ERN STATES TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE PLAINS LATE. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL ORGANIZE IN THE PLAINS AND OZARKS RESULTING IN MOISTURE RETURN
TUESDAY NIGHT. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD PROMOTE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE MID-MO VALLEY AND OZARKS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS ACTIVITY UNORGANIZED.
ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD.

..BROYLES.. 02/24/2009

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KMFR [240531]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 240531
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
931 PM PST MON FEB 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0924 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SSW WEED 41.36N 122.42W
02/23/2009 M62 MPH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER

GUST TO 62 MPH AROUND 9 PM. OTHER GUSTS TO 40 MPH ALL
DAY. WINDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE HIGHEST GUST. LESS
THAN AN INCH OF RAIN ALL DAY.

&&

$$

STOCKTON

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KMFR [240525]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 240525
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
925 PM PST MON FEB 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0924 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W BANDON 43.11N 124.43W
02/23/2009 M55 MPH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

RECORDED AT 2102 PST.

&&

$$

STOCKTON

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