SWODY3
SPC AC 240729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2009
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...MID-MO VALLEY/OZARKS/LOWER OH VALLEY...
A SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE PLAINS
STATES THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE MS VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. A LOW-LEVEL
JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN NWD INTO THE OZARKS AND MID-MS VALLEY
DURING THE DAY. CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG THE AXIS OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET THURSDAY MORNING WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ELEVATED. SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE OZARKS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SFC
TEMPS WARM AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL
PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOW COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR WHICH MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK SUGGESTING THE
THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL. BY EVENING...THE MODELS FORECAST
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM WRN KY WSWWD INTO AR WHERE SFC
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE HIGHER. IF THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IS
REASONABLE...THIS ACTIVITY COULD HAVE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH
WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL POSSIBLE.
..BROYLES.. 02/24/2009
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment