KFWD [070245]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 070245
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
945 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0829 PM TORNADO 6 WSW MONTALBA 31.84N 95.82W
10/06/2008 ANDERSON TX EMERGENCY MNGR

EM REPORTED TORNADO IN TENNESSEE COLONY

$$

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KFWD [070230]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 070230
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
930 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0929 PM TSTM WND GST FRANKSTON 32.06N 95.50W
10/06/2008 E60 MPH ANDERSON TX TRAINED SPOTTER

ALSO PEA-SIZE HAIL IN TOWN..

$$

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KFWD [070203]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 070203
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
903 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0820 PM HAIL DUBLIN 32.09N 98.34W
10/06/2008 E1.75 INCH ERATH TX BROADCAST MEDIA

MEDIA RELAYED REPORT OF GOLFBALL HAIL ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF DUBLIN

$$

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KFWD [070155]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 070155
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
854 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0840 PM TORNADO MONTALBA 31.88N 95.73W
10/06/2008 ANDERSON TX TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORT OF TORNADO IN MONTALBA

$$

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KFWD [070151]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 070151
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
851 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 PM HAIL MONTALBA 31.88N 95.73W
10/06/2008 E1.25 INCH ANDERSON TX EMERGENCY MNGR

EM REPORTED 1/2 DOLLAR HAIL NEAR MONTALBA

$$

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KFWD [070144]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 070144
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
844 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0831 PM HAIL 6 W MARQUEZ 31.24N 96.36W
10/06/2008 E1.75 INCH ROBERTSON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

$$

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KFWD [070133]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 070133
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
832 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0828 PM TSTM WND GST 8 NW PALESTINE 31.84N 95.74W
10/06/2008 E70 MPH ANDERSON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

QUATER INCH HAIL WIND GUST 70 MPH IN TENNESEE COLONY

$$

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KICT [070131]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KICT 070131
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
831 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 ESE BUFFALO 37.67N 95.58W
10/06/2008 WILSON KS EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE KNOCKED DOWN ON TO 1800 ROAD NEAR THE WILSON AND
NEOSHO COUNTY LINE.

0130 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 NW IOLA 37.98N 95.47W
10/06/2008 ALLEN KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

WIND DAMAGE TO A HOME AND TO TREES NORTH OF THE HOME NEAR
SOUTH DAKOTA RD AND 1000 RD.

0130 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 ESE BUFFALO 37.67N 95.58W
10/06/2008 WILSON KS EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE DAMAGE BETWEEN 1700 AND 1800 RD BETWEEN ANDERSON AND
NEAR THE NEOSHO COUNTY LINE.

0345 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 NW IOLA 37.98N 95.47W
10/06/2008 ALLEN KS PUBLIC

REPORT OF WIND DAMAGE TO A BARN WEST OF IOLA

0600 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 WNW CLEARWATER 37.53N 97.58W
10/06/2008 M2.90 INCH SEDGWICK KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0605 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 ESE GODDARD 37.63N 97.49W
10/06/2008 M3.43 INCH SEDGWICK KS MESONET

FROM KAKELAND STORMCHASER.

0715 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 W WEST WICHITA 37.69N 97.48W
10/06/2008 M2.32 INCH SEDGWICK KS TRAINED SPOTTER

FAR WEST WICHITA, NEAR 119TH STREET WEST AND CENTRAL.

0730 PM FLOOD 3 ESE GODDARD 37.64N 97.53W
10/06/2008 SEDGWICK KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

A FEW ROADWAYS WITH HIGH WATER REPORTED OVER THEM,
INCLUDING 167TH STREET WEST AND KELLOGG, 95TH STREET
SOUTH AND 263RD STREET WEST, AND MACARTHUR AT 135TH
STREET WEST AND 151ST STREET WEST.

&&

$$

KED

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 070046
SWODY1
SPC AC 070043

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

VALID 070100Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK AND INTO
NERN TX AND VICINITY...

...S CENTRAL AND SERN OK/THE NERN QUARTER OF TX...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN A N-S BAND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. W OF THE MS RIVER...NEAR AND AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH COMPRISED OF SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES.

STRONGEST STORMS -- AND THE ASSOCIATED PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT --
REMAINS OVER THE NERN QUARTER OF TX ATTM...WHERE SEVERAL
STRONG/LOCALLY-SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING. ACROSS THIS
REGION...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A WIND FIELD WHICH VEERS/INCREASES
WITH HEIGHT TO AROUND 50 KT AT MID LEVELS PER EVENING RAOBS IS
SUPPORTING SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. IN
THIS REGION...HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE -- AND
PERHAPS EVEN A TORNADO OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

THE AXIS OF STRONGER STORMS EXTENDS ENEWD INTO THE SRN HALF OF AR
ATTM...AND THE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...WEAKER INSTABILITY WITH EWD EXTENT COMBINED
WITH WEAKER WIND FIELD IN THIS REGION SUGGEST THAT THE GREATER
THREAT WILL REMAIN FURTHER WSWWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION AND INTO
TX.

FURTHER N...AN OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY IS INDICATED...AND WITH
DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE...AND
LINGERING HAIL THREAT SHOULD DECREASE SLOWLY WITH TIME THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

..GOSS.. 10/07/2008

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KLZK [070042]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 070042
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
742 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 PM FLASH FLOOD HOT SPRINGS 34.49N 93.05W
10/06/2008 GARLAND AR PUBLIC

FLOODING OF STREETS IN HOT SPRINGS.

&&

$$

58

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KICT [070040]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 070040
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
740 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 PM FLOOD 3 ESE GODDARD 37.64N 97.53W
10/06/2008 SEDGWICK KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

A FEW ROADWAYS WITH HIGH WATER REPORTED OVER THEM,
INCLUDING 167TH STREET WEST AND KELLOGG, 95TH STREET
SOUTH AND 263RD STREET WEST, AND MACARTHUR AT 135TH
STREET WEST AND 151ST STREET WEST.

&&

$$

KED

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KICT [070020]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 070020
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
720 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0715 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 W WEST WICHITA 37.69N 97.48W
10/06/2008 M2.32 INCH SEDGWICK KS TRAINED SPOTTER

FAR WEST WICHITA, NEAR 119TH STREET WEST AND CENTRAL.

&&

$$

KED

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KFWD [062353]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 062353
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
653 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0652 PM TSTM WND GST 4 W MEXIA 31.68N 96.55W
10/06/2008 E60 MPH LIMESTONE TX AMATEUR RADIO

WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH FLOWING INTO STORM WEST OF MEXIA

$$

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KLZK [062339]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 062339
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
638 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0521 PM TSTM WND DMG MIDWAY 34.25N 92.95W
10/06/2008 HOT SPRING AR COUNTY OFFICIAL

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCED STRONG WINDS AND A LARGE
TREE DAMAGED A HOUSE.

&&

$$

MTREXLER

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KICT [062314]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 062314
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
613 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0605 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 ESE GODDARD 37.63N 97.49W
10/06/2008 M3.43 INCH SEDGWICK KS MESONET

FROM KAKELAND STORMCHASER.

&&

$$

KED

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KICT [062311]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 062311
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
611 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 WNW CLEARWATER 37.53N 97.58W
10/06/2008 M2.90 INCH SEDGWICK KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

KED

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2312

ACUS11 KWNS 062306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062306
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-070000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2312
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0606 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR...FAR NRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 062306Z - 070000Z

A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS
PRIMARILY ACROSS SWRN/S-CNTRL AR AS A RELATIVELY NARROW
JUXTAPOSITION OF FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE
MAXIMIZED. OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO WANE IN AREAL EXTENT EWD
AND WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DIMINISHING FOR A TIME THIS EVENING.
ATTM...A WW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED INVOF I-30 CORRIDOR SW OF LIT ALONG
SERN FRINGE OF FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LIFTING N TOWARDS THE MID-MO RIVER VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
INTERCEPTED AN AXIS MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS WHICH HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG/.
THIS ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KT /PER LATEST OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS/ HAS SUPPORTED UPDRAFT ROTATION AND LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION
AT TIMES /REF GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN HOT SPRINGS COUNTY AR
AT 2218Z/. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS THEY
PROGRESS NEWD INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE AIR MASS /CHARACTERIZED
BY 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS AND A DEARTH OF INSTABILITY/. LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO LIFT NWD AWAY FROM REGION. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM TROUGH
EJECTING FROM WRN INTO CNTRL TX SHOULD ENHANCE ASCENT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND MAY MAINTAIN MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..GRAMS.. 10/06/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

35759195 35389118 34759109 33229166 32579225 32399352
32609409 33069437 34499334 35479270

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KTOP [062306]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 062306
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
606 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM TSTM WND GST 4 ESE PAXICO 39.06N 96.10W
10/06/2008 E60 MPH WABAUNSEE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

A COUPLE OF 2 TO 3 INCH DIAMETER BRANCHES DOWNED AS WELL.

&&

$$

JW

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KOUN [062306]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 062306
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
606 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0605 PM HAIL 8 S STERLING 34.63N 98.17W
10/06/2008 E0.88 INCH COMANCHE OK AMATEUR RADIO

&&

$$

AJL/TY

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KSHV [062303]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 062303
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
603 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0529 PM HAIL 13 SSW FOUKE 33.09N 93.97W
10/06/2008 E0.75 INCH MILLER AR PUBLIC

1 MI. W OF DODDRIDGE.

&&

$$

JD

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KICT [062253]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 062253
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
553 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 W WEST WICHITA 37.69N 97.48W
10/06/2008 M1.85 INCH SEDGWICK KS TRAINED SPOTTER

FAR WEST WICHITA, NEAR 119TH STREET WEST AND CENTRAL.

&&

$$

KED

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2311

ACUS11 KWNS 062249
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062249
TXZ000-OKZ000-070045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2311
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0549 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL/NERN TX...CENTRAL/SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 062249Z - 070045Z

RATHER WIDELY DISPERSED SVR POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS ACROSS BROAD SWATH OF CENTRAL TX INTO CENTRAL OK...WITH HAIL
BEING MAIN THREAT AND ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR SVR CRITERIA ALSO
POSSIBLE. THREAT FCST TO DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 02Z. WW HAS NOT BEEN
ISSUED SO FAR BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION AND WIDE
DISPERSION OF SVR THREAT...HOWEVER TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR THAT POSSIBILITY.

SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS PORTIONS
CENTRAL/SRN OK DURING NEXT FEW HOURS IN LOOSELY ORGANIZED BAND
NEARLY COLLOCATED WITH PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE LINE EVIDENT IN SFC
STREAMLINE ANALYSES. COLD FRONT -- INITIALLY ANALYZED JUST W OF
THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN OK -- MAY CATCH UP AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
ASCENT. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GREAT MAJORITY OF BUOYANCY
IN LOWER HALF OF TROPOSPHERE BELOW WARM LAYER EVIDENT AROUND 400-450
MB. MLCAPE 500-800 J/KG IS ANALYZED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF OK
ACTIVITY AND DECREASING BOTH WITH TIME AND WITH EWD EXTENT AS
ACTIVITY MOVES OVER MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. GAP BETWEEN
THIS ACTIVITY AND ONGOING/WIDELY SCATTERED STG-SVR CONVECTION IN
CENTRAL TX MAY FILL SOMEWHAT THROUGH REMAINDER LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...BEFORE DIABATIC COOLING STABILIZES BOUNDARY LAYER
ENOUGH TO REMOVE SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS.
MEANWHILE...HOWEVER...BUOYANT LATER STRENGTHENS/DEEPENS WITH SWD
EXTENT...MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG EVIDENT ACROSS N-CENTRAL TX. BEST
BUOYANCY/SHEAR OVERLAP WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NE TX AND RED
RIVER REGION.

VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SVR WITH EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAXIMIZED AT 45-50 KT OVER N-CENTRAL TX...DIMINISHING TO 25-30
KT N-CENTRAL/NERN OK. RELATIVELY BACKED SFC WINDS NEAR AND E OF
I-35 CORRIDOR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND ENHANCED
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO
DECOUPLE...ALTHOUGH WEAK SPEEDS IN LOWEST 3 KM LIMIT HODOGRAPH SIZE.
EXPECT INTERMITTENT/MESSY SUPERCELLULAR AND HYBRID MULTICELL
STRUCTURES IN SUPPORT OF EPISODIC LARGE HAIL.

..EDWARDS.. 10/06/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

31859915 34749835 35989794 36249690 35569627 32859551
31549631 30819809 31069871

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KLZK [062248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 062248
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
548 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0518 PM HAIL 1 S MIDWAY 34.24N 92.95W
10/06/2008 E1.75 INCH HOT SPRING AR EMERGENCY MNGR

GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL FELL HALFWAY BETWEEN DONALDSON AND
FRIENDSHIP.

&&

$$

58

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KOUN [062243]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 062243
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
543 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0537 PM HAIL 1 N PUMPKIN CENTER 34.61N 98.21W
10/06/2008 E1.00 INCH COMANCHE OK AMATEUR RADIO

&&

$$

AJL/TY

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KOUN [062243]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 062243
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
543 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0542 PM HAIL 5 NE PUMPKIN CENTER 34.65N 98.15W
10/06/2008 E1.25 INCH COMANCHE OK AMATEUR RADIO

ALSO ESTIMATED WINDS OF 45 MPH.

&&

$$

AJL/TY

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KLZK [062238]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 062238
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
538 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

&&

$$

ND

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KOUN [062235]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 062235
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
535 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0532 PM HAIL 8 S STERLING 34.63N 98.17W
10/06/2008 E1.00 INCH COMANCHE OK AMATEUR RADIO

&&

$$

AJL/TY

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KICT [062231]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 062231
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
531 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0527 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 E WEST WICHITA 37.69N 97.44W
10/06/2008 M2.06 INCH SEDGWICK KS MESONET

KSN WEATHERLAB AT ST. FRANCIS OF ASSISI SCHOOL

&&

$$

KED

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KOUN [062228]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 062228
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
527 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0527 PM HAIL 5 E LAWTON 34.60N 98.33W
10/06/2008 E0.88 INCH COMANCHE OK AMATEUR RADIO

REPORTED ALONG HIGHWAY 7.

&&

$$

AJL/TY

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KFWD [062208]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 062208
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
508 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0420 PM TSTM WND DMG COMANCHE 31.90N 98.60W
10/06/2008 COMANCHE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE LIMBS DOWN ON VEHICLES AND POWER LINES...TIME
ESTIMATED

$$

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KOUN [062202]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 062202
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
502 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0458 PM HAIL 3 W LAWTON 34.60N 98.48W
10/06/2008 E1.25 INCH COMANCHE OK EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

AJL/TY

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KOUN [062156]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 062156
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
456 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0453 PM HAIL 4 W LAWTON 34.60N 98.49W
10/06/2008 E1.00 INCH COMANCHE OK FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0453 PM HAIL 5 W LAWTON 34.60N 98.51W
10/06/2008 E1.25 INCH COMANCHE OK AMATEUR RADIO

REPORTED FROM NEAR 72ND AND GORE ON THE WEST SIDE OF
LAWTON...SAME LOCATION AS THE PREVIOUS REPORT...BUT HAIL
SIZE HAS INCREASED.

&&

$$

AJL/TY

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KOUN [062148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 062148
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
447 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0444 PM HAIL 5 W LAWTON 34.60N 98.51W
10/06/2008 E0.88 INCH COMANCHE OK AMATEUR RADIO

REPORTED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF 72ND AND GORE.

&&

$$

AJL/TY

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KICT [062137]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 062137
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
437 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 NW IOLA 37.98N 95.47W
10/06/2008 ALLEN KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

WIND DAMAGE TO A HOME AND TO TREES NORTH OF THE HOME NEAR
SOUTH DAKOTA RD AND 1000 RD.

&&

$$

JMB

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KICT [062136]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 062136
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
436 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM HEAVY RAIN GODDARD 37.66N 97.58W
10/06/2008 M1.95 INCH SEDGWICK KS MESONET

KSN WEATHER LAB

&&

$$

KED

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KICT [062123]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 062123
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
423 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1221 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 E NEODESHA 37.42N 95.64W
10/06/2008 WILSON KS EMERGENCY MNGR

WIND DAMAGE TO SOME BUILDINGS NEAR TREGO RD BETWEEN 600
AND 700 RD.

&&

$$

JMB

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KICT [062122]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 062122
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
422 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 ESE BUFFALO 37.67N 95.58W
10/06/2008 WILSON KS EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE DAMAGE BETWEEN 1700 AND 1800 RD BETWEEN ANDERSON AND
NEAR THE NEOSHO COUNTY LINE.

&&

$$

JMB

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KICT [062119]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 062119
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
418 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 W WEST WICHITA 37.69N 97.48W
10/06/2008 M1.06 INCH SEDGWICK KS TRAINED SPOTTER

A LOT OF PONDING OF WATER ON AREA STREETS IN FAR WEST
WICHITA.

&&

$$

KED

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KICT [062116]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 062116
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
416 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 NW IOLA 37.98N 95.47W
10/06/2008 ALLEN KS PUBLIC

REPORT OF WIND DAMAGE TO A BARN WEST OF IOLA

&&

$$

JMB

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KLZK [062055]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 062055
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
355 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 W INK 34.58N 94.15W
10/06/2008 POLK AR EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN 5
MILES EAST OF MENA ON HIGHWAY 88.

&&

$$

58

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KICT [062000]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 062000
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
300 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1220 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 E NEODESHA 37.42N 95.64W
10/06/2008 WILSON KS TRAINED SPOTTER

A METAL SHED KNOCKED OVER ON 700 ROAD EAST OF TOWN.

0130 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 ESE BUFFALO 37.67N 95.58W
10/06/2008 WILSON KS EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE KNOCKED DOWN ON TO 1800 ROAD NEAR THE WILSON AND
NEOSHO COUNTY LINE.

&&

$$

BDK

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061947
SWODY1
SPC AC 061944

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS
OF SE KS....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS
OF CNTRL/NE TX INTO SRN OK....

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH
IS IN THE PROCESS OF REDEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS...AS ONE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PIVOTS AROUND ITS EASTERN
PERIPHERY...ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND AN ATTENDANT WEAK
SURFACE LOW CENTER MAY STILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STRENGTHENING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN FAVORABLE AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY/DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALONG AND WEST
OF A 40+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS...A SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO...IN ADDITION TO HAIL/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...IS PERHAPS POSSIBLE IN A LOCALIZED POCKET OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY. BUT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVERALL APPEARS MITIGATED
BY A LACK OF STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH LIMITED SURFACE HEATING DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MINIMIZING DESTABILIZATION EVEN WHERE
SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER TROUGH...FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TEXAS INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AREA. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS MIXED LAYER CAPE COULD
EXCEED 1000 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON...NEAR A LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
JET AXIS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS...AS MID-LEVEL
COOLING/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED IMPULSE PIVOTS
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

ATTEMPTS AT DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAVE ALREADY BEEN EVIDENT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FORCING...ALONG THE DRY LINE NEAR ABILENE.
BUT...THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTIVE THAT VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS MORE PROBABLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...WHERE A DEEPER MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER ALREADY EXISTS AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

THE CORE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS ALREADY LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 40+ KT 500 MB
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS. WHILE AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
...THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
...WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE BEFORE STORMS
WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.

..KERR/KIS.. 10/06/2008

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 061718
SWODY2
SPC AC 061715

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN LINGERS ACROSS MUCH OF CANADA AND THE
U.S...BUT MODELS INDICATE THAT THE EXIT REGION OF A STRONG ZONAL
PACIFIC JET STREAK WILL NOSE INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE CONTINUING EASTWARD NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA...INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
12Z WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES...NOW SOMEWHAT IN PHASE TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES...ARE FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON
BAY...WITH THE BLOCKING NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CANADIAN
BREAKING DOWN...WHILE THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH
THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.

...MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GULF COAST...
VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODELS...AND AMONG NCEP SREF/MREF MEMBERS...IS
QUITE LARGE CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH.
BUT...GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL REMAIN WEAK...WHILE
THE EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE IN THE EAST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BLOCKING PATTERN...IS SLOW TO WEAKEN/RETREAT EASTWARD.
THUS...DESPITE THE FACT THAT MODIFICATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NOW FINALLY BEGINNING TO SUPPORT A SUBSTANTIAL
RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES APPEARS UNLIKELY TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME CONFINED TO A NARROWING WEDGE ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHERE CLOUD COVER COULD RESTRICT SURFACE
HEATING. COUPLED WITH THE PROSPECT FOR ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL
COOLING...AND MODEL PROGS INDICATING THAT STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL SHIFT NORTH/EAST OF THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...SEVERE
POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS UNCERTAIN OR LOW. OF PRIMARY
CONCERN...MID-LEVEL DRYING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
MOIST AXIS MAY PROVIDE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF
MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT...FOR SCATTERED VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF THIS OCCURS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
BENEATH CYCLONIC 40 KT 500 MB FLOW PROBABLY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 10/06/2008

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061634
SWODY1
SPC AC 061631

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT FROM NE TX INTO ERN OK/SE KS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EWD/ENEWD OVER S CENTRAL
KS/WRN AND CENTRAL OK/NW TX AS OF MID MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED IN W CENTRAL KS...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
SWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...AND A RESIDUAL LEE TROUGH INTO NW TX.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES ACROSS TX/OK TRAIL BEHIND THE PRIMARY
EMBEDDED SPEED MAX ROTATING NNEWD OVER CENTRAL OK...AND THIS
STRUCTURE IS SUGGESTIVE OF A SLOWLY DECAYING BAROCLINIC WAVE.

...ERN OK/NE TX THIS AFTERNOON...
THE PRIMARY BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION HAS MOVED SLOWLY EWD INTO
SE OK AND NE TX. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASING INTO THE
68-70 F RANGE INTO E/NE TX AND WRN LA IN ADVANCE OF THESE STORMS.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT THE WARMING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ARE SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS AND
SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND...AND THERE WILL
BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALONG WITH MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS. HOWEVER...THE LLJ CORE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NWD TOWARD WRN MO IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PRIMARY SPEED MAX
LIFTING NNEWD FROM OK. THE RESULTANT WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL
FLOW/SHEAR AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT THE SEVERE
STORM THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR A SLIGHT RISK.

...N TX INTO CENTRAL OK THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE
MORNING CONVECTION...WHILE A FEW CLOUD BREAKS WILL ALLOW MODEST
SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER MODEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE ONLY
RELATIVELY STEEP UPSTREAM LAPSE RATES OBSERVED AT AMA. AN INITIAL
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ALREADY PASSED THIS AREA...THOUGH THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE W. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND E OF THE
RESIDUAL LEE TROUGH ACROSS NW TX AND WRN OK...AND THE STRONGEST
STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

...ERN KS/WRN MO THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW-MID LEVEL SPEED
MAXIMA WILL LIFT NNEWD FROM OK TO ERN KS/WRN MO THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND POOR LAPSE RATES WILL SUBSTANTIALLY LIMIT
INSTABILITY. AN ISOLATED ROTATING STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY ON THE NE EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IN
KS...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE STORM PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN RATHER
LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 10/06/2008

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061233
SWODY1
SPC AC 061230

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 AM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL/NERN TX ACROSS ERN
OK AND FAR WRN AR/SERN KS...

...SRN PLAINS...
MAIN FEATURE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LONGWAVE TROUGH SPREADING EWD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S...WHICH CONSISTS
OF TWO MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS- ONE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND
ANOTHER EJECTING NEWD OUT OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. SRN MOST IMPULSE
HAS SUSTAINED CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARCING FROM CENTRAL
TX INTO CENTRAL OK/SWRN AND CENTRAL KS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED
MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION ON WV IMAGERY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS SYSTEM EJECTS ACROSS OK/KS/NRN
TX...WHICH WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH FORECAST TO EXTEND N-S INVOF I-35 FROM CENTRAL KS INTO
N-CENTRAL TX BY LATE TODAY.

DESPITE THE LIMITED SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WITHIN
RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...VERY
STRONG SHEAR /ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWEST FEW KMS/ SUGGESTS EVEN MODEST
HEATING WILL INCREASE RISK OF ORGANIZED STORMS- INCLUDING LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH THIS LEADING ACTIVITY.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF EARLY DAY
STORMS...NEARER THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL OK INTO TX...AS MODEST
HEATING/INSTABILITY OCCURS WITHIN MID LEVEL DRY SLOT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION INDICATE SFC-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF
150-250 M2/S2...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOA 40 KT. GIVEN LARGE LOW
LEVEL RH/LOW LCLS AND SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL SHEAR...RISK OF A BRIEF
TORNADO AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY MORE ROBUST
UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY IF A FEW DISCRETE STORMS CAN EVOLVE. ALTHOUGH
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE
EVENING...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER DARK.

..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 10/06/2008

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 060753
SWOD48
SPC AC 060753

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 AM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

VALID 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...

MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOW THAT WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DAY 4 (THURSDAY). IN EITHER
CASE...THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO
EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND MODEST VERTICAL
SHEAR.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION DAY 4-5 AS
AN UPPER TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE WRN STATES. MODEL DISCREPANCIES ARE
NOT QUITE AS LARGE AS YESTERDAYS...AND THE GFS HAS COME CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF SOLUTION. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES PERSIST AND
MREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN DISPERSIVE. IN EITHER CASE THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 5 WITH LOW
PREDICTABILITY BEYOND THIS TIME.

..DIAL.. 10/06/2008

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 060703
SWODY3
SPC AC 060701

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 AM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN STATES...

UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE INTO THE SERN STATES WEDNESDAY. ESELY LOW
LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FROM ERN U.S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT
NWD RETURN OF HIGHER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE THAT SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION.
FARTHER NORTH AN AXIS OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH LOW 60S
DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST EAST OF OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE CNTRL GULF
COASTAL STATES NWD INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY.

INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
ONGOING CONVECTION WITHIN ZONE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT EAST OF UPPER
TROUGH. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION WILL BE ALONG THE
GULF COASTAL STATES WHERE RICHER MOISTURE WILL EXIST...BUT WILL
DEPEND UPON EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. BULK SHEAR OF 30-35
KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT
FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL UPON THE EVOLUTION OF EARLY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEAR WARRANTED.

..DIAL.. 10/06/2008

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 060531
SWODY2
SPC AC 060530

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER MS VALLEY AREA...

PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL REMAIN UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO
THE SRN PLAINS THAT WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEYS
TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. SEVERAL
VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE THROUGH THIS FEATURE. MODEL CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIFT NWD AWAY FROM THE MORE UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN IMPULSE FORECAST TO MOVE NWD
THROUGH ERN PORTION OF UPPER TROUGH.

RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS NOW IN PLACE OVER
SOUTH TX AND THE NWRN GULF WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH LA...SRN AR AND
PARTS OF MS. HOWEVER...NWD EXTENT OF RICHER MOISTURE RETURN WILL
LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED BY SELY TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM CP HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ERN STATES. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF DPVA OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER-MIDDLE MS VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION
POTENTIAL ALONG MUCH OF MOIST AXIS. HOWEVER...A FEW CLOUD BREAKS MAY
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF LA AND SRN MS WHERE MLCAPE COULD
APPROACH 1000 J/KG. WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO LIFT NWD
DURING THE DAY...THE LARGER 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WRN TN AND MID MS VALLEY WHERE DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL WILL BE
MORE LIMITED. FARTHER SOUTH...BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
MULTICELLS AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION.
A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS
OF AR INTO LA AND MS.

OTHER STORMS MAY REDEVELOP FARTHER NORTH ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AR INTO
SWRN MO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THERMAL TROUGH WHERE SLIGHTLY STEEPER
LAPSE RATES MAY EXIST...AND WHERE DRY SLOT IN WAKE OF EARLY
CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY IF LOW
CLOUDS MIX OUT. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

GIVEN EXPECTED MODEST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING EVOLUTION OF EARLY STORMS...ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES
APPEAR JUSTIFIED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE CATEGORICAL RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..DIAL.. 10/06/2008

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 060524
SWODY1
SPC AC 060521

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 AM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES/ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH A FAIRLY LARGE
AREA OF EMBEDDED VORTICITY PROGGED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...A SECOND/SMALLER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO VACATE THE NERN
CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN PLAINS VORT MAX
SHOULD DRIFT NEWD ACROSS OK...WHILE A WEAK/TRAILING COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS TX THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH A
MOISTENING WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...NERN QUARTER OF TX/S CENTRAL AND SERN OK/SWRN AR...
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS -- INITIALLY FORECAST
OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TX/OK -- IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SLOWLY EWD
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS ONGOING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER
COMPLICATES THE FORECAST...AS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY BE
HINDERED ACROSS A LARGE AREA. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT MARGINAL
DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR ALONG WRN FRINGES OF THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON -- ACROSS CENTRAL TX/CENTRAL OK
-- WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE SURFACE
LOW/FRONT.

WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND INCREASING TO 40-PLUS KT
AT MID LEVELS...SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS.
AGAIN HOWEVER...QUESTIONS PERSIST REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR.
ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THREAT FOR HAIL/LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS IS
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE INTRODUCTION OF A SLIGHT RISK THIS
FORECAST...ACROSS THE NERN QUARTER OF TX AND INTO SRN OK/SWRN AR.
PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD EXIST FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING...WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS.

..GOSS.. 10/06/2008

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 912

WWUS20 KWNS 060417
SEL2
SPC WW 060417
TXZ000-060600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 912
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 912 ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

TEXAS

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.