SWOD48
SPC AC 060753
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 AM CDT MON OCT 06 2008
VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOW THAT WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DAY 4 (THURSDAY). IN EITHER
CASE...THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO
EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND MODEST VERTICAL
SHEAR.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION DAY 4-5 AS
AN UPPER TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE WRN STATES. MODEL DISCREPANCIES ARE
NOT QUITE AS LARGE AS YESTERDAYS...AND THE GFS HAS COME CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF SOLUTION. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES PERSIST AND
MREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN DISPERSIVE. IN EITHER CASE THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 5 WITH LOW
PREDICTABILITY BEYOND THIS TIME.
..DIAL.. 10/06/2008
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