KFWD [160037]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 160037
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
736 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 PM HAIL 3 W WEATHERFORD 32.77N 97.85W
05/15/2013 E1.75 INCH PARKER TX AMATEUR RADIO

$$

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KFWD [160032]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 160032
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
732 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM HAIL CARADAN 31.55N 98.48W
05/15/2013 E2.75 INCH MILLS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

BASEBALL HAIL IN CARADAN

$$

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KHNX [160028]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 160028
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
528 PM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NE MOJAVE 35.07N 118.15W
05/15/2013 M53 MPH KERN CA AWOS

REPORTED AT AWOS STATION MHV

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KFWD [160026]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 160026
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
725 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0717 PM HAIL 2 S INDIAN GAP 31.64N 98.42W
05/15/2013 E1.75 INCH HAMILTON TX TRAINED SPOTTER

GOLFBALL HAIL SOUTH OF INDIAN GAP NEAR THE
HAMILTON/MILLS COUNTY LINE

$$

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KHNX [160019]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 160019
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
518 PM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0427 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 19 ESE LAKE ISABELLA 35.54N 118.14W
05/15/2013 M52 MPH KERN CA MESONET

REPORTED AT RAWS STATION BIJC1

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0648

ACUS11 KWNS 160019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160018
OKZ000-TXZ000-160115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0648
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0718 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK...NW AND W-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 160...

VALID 160018Z - 160115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 160
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DMGG WIND AND HAIL THREAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS SRN OK AND
W-CNTRL TX PORTIONS OF WW 160.

DISCUSSION...THE THREAT ACROSS WW 160 IS BIFURCATED WITH ONE REGIME
EVOLVING ACROSS SRN OK AND ANOTHER OVER W-CNTRL AND NW TX...PER
RECENT RADAR TRENDS.

1. CONSOLIDATION OF STORMS INTO A BOWING QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENT ACROSS
SRN OK HAS OCCURRED...APPROACHING THE ERN EDGE OF WW 160. RECENT
OKLAHOMA MESONET OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY ARE SUB-SEVERE...BUT SVR WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A
WEAK/BRIEF EMBEDDED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS IT PROGRESSES EWD
TOWARDS SERN OK. ALTHOUGH A NEW WW DOWNSTREAM IS NOT IMMINENT AS THE
AIR MASS IS LESS UNSTABLE WITH EWD EXTENT...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

2. TSTMS LARGELY REMAIN CONFINED TO A E-W CORRIDOR ACROSS W-CNTRL
TX...S OF I-20...WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION RECENTLY WITH STORM
ENTERING TAYLOR COUNTY. THIS STORM WILL ENCOUNTER A PROGRESSIVELY
MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH ERN MOVEMENT...AND SHOULD
EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO TORNADO WATCH 161. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT
IS STILL POSSIBLE INTO NW TX INVOF A NWD MOVING BOUNDARY...WITH 50S
F DEWPOINTS EXTENDING NWWD TOWARDS CDS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DMGG
WINDS.

..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 05/16/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 32189923 32069972 31910052 31950094 32430106 33690107
34200079 34520034 34679954 34879779 34969702 35129669
35169599 34949574 34619576 34389630 34429678 34469739
34449795 33199864 32189923

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KTOP [160016]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KTOP 160016
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
715 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0657 PM HAIL 5 E OKETO 39.96N 96.50W
05/15/2013 E1.25 INCH MARSHALL KS PUBLIC


&&

$$

JB

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KTOP [160012]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 160012
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
712 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0706 PM HAIL 4 E OKETO 39.96N 96.52W
05/15/2013 E0.88 INCH MARSHALL KS PUBLIC


&&

$$

JB

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KTOP [160011]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 160011
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
711 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0710 PM HAIL 5 E OKETO 39.96N 96.50W
05/15/2013 E1.25 INCH MARSHALL KS PUBLIC


&&

$$

JB

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KFWD [160010]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 160010
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
710 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0706 PM HAIL 4 W WEATHERFORD 32.77N 97.87W
05/15/2013 E1.75 INCH PARKER TX AMATEUR RADIO

$$

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KOUN [160010]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 160010
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
710 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM HAIL 2 S VASHTI 33.52N 98.05W
05/15/2013 E1.75 INCH CLAY TX AMATEUR RADIO


&&

$$

DW

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KFWD [160006]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 160006
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
706 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0658 PM TORNADO SUNSET 33.45N 97.77W
05/15/2013 MONTAGUE TX AMATEUR RADIO

NEAR 287 IN SUNSET

$$

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KFWD [160002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 160002
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
701 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM TSTM WND GST MILLSAP 32.75N 98.02W
05/15/2013 M65 MPH PARKER TX AMATEUR RADIO

$$

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KFWD [152356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 152356
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
655 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0632 PM HAIL MILLSAP 32.75N 98.02W
05/15/2013 E1.75 INCH PARKER TX TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGER THAN GOLFBALL HAIL

$$

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KFWD [152353]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 152353
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
653 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0635 PM TSTM WND DMG MILLSAP 32.75N 98.02W
05/15/2013 PARKER TX AMATEUR RADIO

DAMAGE TO A ROOF AND A TELEPHONE POLE DOWN IN MILLSAP

$$

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KSLC [152351]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 152351
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
550 PM MDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0420 PM TSTM WND GST GOLD HILL 40.28N 113.70W
05/15/2013 M61 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

WEST SALT FLATS - 4237 FT

0500 PM TSTM WND GST SYRACUSE 41.04N 112.23W
05/15/2013 M68 MPH DAVIS UT MESONET

ANTELOPE ISLAND S.P. - 4199 FT

&&

$$

ROGOWSKI

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KFWD [152350]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 152350
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
650 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0632 PM HAIL PRIDDY 31.67N 98.52W
05/15/2013 E1.75 INCH MILLS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

$$

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KFWD [152347]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 152347
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
647 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM HAIL MORGAN MILL 32.38N 98.17W
05/15/2013 E1.50 INCH ERATH TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

$$

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KOUN [152338]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 152338
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
638 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0605 PM HAIL RYAN 34.02N 97.95W
05/15/2013 E1.00 INCH JEFFERSON OK AMATEUR RADIO


&&

$$

FM

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KFWD [152329]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 152329
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
629 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0625 PM HAIL MINERAL WELLS 32.80N 98.10W
05/15/2013 M4.00 INCH PALO PINTO TX TRAINED SPOTTER

IN MINERAL WELLS

$$

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KHNX [152326]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 152326
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
426 PM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1224 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 WSW SAN LUIS RESERVOIR37.04N 121.19W
05/15/2013 M41 MPH MERCED CA MESONET

REPORTED AT APRSWXNET STATION AT423

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KFWD [152323]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 152323
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
622 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 PM HAIL MINERAL WELLS 32.80N 98.10W
05/15/2013 E1.75 INCH PALO PINTO TX AMATEUR RADIO

IN MINERAL WELLS

$$

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KFWD [152319]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 152319
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
619 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0613 PM HAIL MINERAL WELLS 32.80N 98.10W
05/15/2013 E1.50 INCH PALO PINTO TX AMATEUR RADIO

AT KMWL

$$

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KFWD [152315]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 152315
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
615 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0614 PM HAIL MINERAL WELLS 32.80N 98.10W
05/15/2013 E1.25 INCH PALO PINTO TX AMATEUR RADIO

AT KMWL

$$

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KOUN [152305]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 152305
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
605 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0605 PM HAIL RYAN 34.02N 97.95W
05/15/2013 E1.00 INCH JEFFERSON OK TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

KURTZ

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 161

WWUS20 KWNS 152303
SEL1
SPC WW 152303
OKZ000-TXZ000-160600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 161
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
600 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 600 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
NUMEROUS LARGE HAIL EVENTS EXPECTED WITH SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF ARDMORE
OKLAHOMA TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BROWNWOOD TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 160...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH ALONG SSW-NNE
CONFLUENCE AXIS ATTM EXTENDING FROM NEAR WICHITA FALLS TX TO W OF
BROWNWOOD TX. ACTIVITY WILL BE FOSTERED BOTH BY CONTINUED SFC
HEATING AND BY ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPR IMPULSE NOW MOVING ESE
ACROSS W TX. AREA VWP DATA SHOW AMPLE DEEP SHEAR/VEERING WIND
PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION..MOIST...15-20 KT S TO SSELY
SFC FLOW AHEAD OF CONFLUENCE AXIS WILL MAINTAIN RISK FOR LOW-LVL
MESOS WITH ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. THE STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A
BROKEN SQLN WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS CONTINUING TO POSE A RISK FOR SVR
HAIL/WIND AND ISOLD TORNADOES THROUGH LATE TNGT.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020.


...CORFIDI

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KPIH [152248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 152248
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
448 PM MDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0446 PM HAIL 5 NE RIVERDALE 42.22N 111.74W
05/15/2013 E0.75 INCH FRANKLIN ID TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL ESTIMATED TO BE MARBLE TO DIME SIZED.


&&

$$

MH

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KSJT [152245]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 152245
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
545 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 PM TSTM WND GST 4 W SWEETWATER 32.47N 100.47W
05/15/2013 M58 MPH NOLAN TX AWOS


&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1300221

$$

PM

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KFWD [152242]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 152242
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
542 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0539 PM TORNADO 1 W BELCHERVILLE 33.80N 97.85W
05/15/2013 MONTAGUE TX TRAINED SPOTTER

TORNADO 1 W OF BELCHERVILLE

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0647

ACUS11 KWNS 152241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152240
TXZ000-OKZ000-152345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0647
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0540 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL TX AND SOUTHERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 160...

VALID 152240Z - 152345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 160
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND/SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL CONTINUES ACROSS
SEVERE TSTM WATCH 160...WITH THE LARGEST HAIL POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHWEST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TX. SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL EXISTS AS
WELL MAINLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL TX...MONITORING FOR A
PARTIAL TORNADO WATCH UPGRADE.

DISCUSSION...DISCUSSION PRIMARILY CONCERNS NORTH-CENTRAL TX...WHERE
SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST INTO THIS EVENING. SOUTH OF A
CLUSTERING BAND OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX...CU FIELD CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN WITH TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF LOW-LEVEL
CONFLUENT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM EAST OF
WICHITA FALLS SSW TO GRAHAM AND BROWNWOOD AREAS. STORMS MAY CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR AND SPREAD EAST-NORTHWARD TOWARD
SOMEWHAT COOLER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. MODEST TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
SPREADS AND MODERATELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ARE NOTED NEAR/EAST OF
THE CONFLUENT AXIS...WITH A RECENT TREND OF BACKING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
/SOUTHEASTERLY/ AND AS MUCH AS 150-175 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH PER
MODIFIED FORT WORTH WSR-88D VWP. THIS SUPPORTS THE NOTION OF AT
LEAST SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL INTO THIS EVENING...SUCH THAT A TORNADO
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/15/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 30949913 33009829 34009791 34079710 33259639 32389662
30539749 30949913

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KHNX [152240]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 152240
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
339 PM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0314 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 16 NE TEHACHAPI 35.29N 118.23W
05/15/2013 M50 MPH KERN CA MESONET

REPORTED AT GOES STATION JWBC1

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0646

ACUS11 KWNS 152225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152224
TXZ000-160100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0646
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 152224Z - 160100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU VICINITY/WEST-CENTRAL TX AND PERHAPS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TX...WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE AS WELL THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...PER VISIBLE SATELLITE...CU FIELD HAS DEEPENED A DEGREE
OVER THE PAST 1-2 HR ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TX IN GENERAL VICINITY OF A
BROWNWOOD TO JUNCTION TX CORRIDOR...WITH OTHER HIGHER-BASED CU
EVIDENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX FROM BETWEEN LUBBOCK-MIDLAND SOUTHWARD
TO EAST OF FORT STOCKTON/NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEAR
SANDERSON. HEATING/MIXING ASIDE...THE HIGH-BASED CU DEVELOPMENT MAY
BE ENHANCED BY A VORTICITY MAXIMA/JET STREAK PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE REGION AS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/REGIONAL DERIVED WIND
DATA. SIMILAR TO SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE 18Z NAM AND HIGH-RES
WRF-NMM/WRF-NSSL...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STRONG/SEVERE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND OTHER PARTS OF
WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE SOMEWHAT RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE THE CU FIELD APPEARS RELATIVELY SUPPRESSED
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE NEAR/SOUTH OF DEL RIO...A STORM OR TWO
DEVELOPING/CROSSING THE BORDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 40+ KT OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE
HAIL...ALTHOUGH SOME MCS-TYPE DEVELOPMENT COULD MATERIALIZE LATER
THIS EVENING WITH MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/15/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 29870091 31100035 31289850 30319828 28480017 29870091

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KHNX [152220]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 152220
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
319 PM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0257 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N KERNVILLE 35.78N 118.43W
05/15/2013 M46 MPH KERN CA MESONET

REPORTED AT GOES STATION KRNC1

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KHNX [152219]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 152219
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
318 PM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0303 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NW MOJAVE 35.11N 118.24W
05/15/2013 M47 MPH KERN CA MESONET

REPORTED AT APRSWXNET STATION AU563

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KFWD [152213]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 152213
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
513 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0511 PM HAIL RINGGOLD 33.82N 97.95W
05/15/2013 E2.75 INCH MONTAGUE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

HAIL TO BASEBALL SIZE. GOLFBALL HAIL COVERING THE
GROUND.

$$

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KMAF [152212]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 152212
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
512 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0510 PM TSTM WND GST 2 SW SNYDER 32.69N 100.94W
05/15/2013 M63 MPH SCURRY TX ASOS


&&

$$

DH

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KFWD [152211]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 152211
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
511 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0508 PM HAIL RINGGOLD 33.82N 97.95W
05/15/2013 E1.75 INCH MONTAGUE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

GOLFBALL TO BASEBALL HAIL

$$

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KTSA [152143]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 152143
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
443 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0420 PM HAIL GRANT 33.94N 95.51W
05/15/2013 E0.88 INCH CHOCTAW OK PUBLIC

ABOUT NICKEL SIZE HAIL FELL AT THE CHOCTAW CASINO.


&&

$$

AEJ

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KVEF [152136]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KVEF 152136
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
235 PM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM TSTM WND DMG BISHOP 37.37N 118.40W
05/14/2013 INYO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER IN BISHOP REPORTED TREES KNOCKED DOWN FROM STRONG
WINDS.

0508 PM TSTM WND DMG N BISHOP 37.37N 118.40W
05/14/2013 INYO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER IN BISHOP CA REPORTED STRONG WINDS KNOCKED DOWN A
5 INCH TREE LIMB.

0600 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SIERRA ROTORS 10 36.77N 118.16W
05/14/2013 M58.00 MPH INYO CA MESONET

SIERRA ROTORS SITE NUMBER 10 MEASURED A 58 MPH GUST FROM
THE NORTH.

0620 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SIERRA ROTORS 15 36.74N 118.12W
05/14/2013 M58.00 MPH INYO CA MESONET

SIERRA ROTORS SITE NUMBER 15 MEASURED A PEAK WIND GUST OF
58 MPH FROM THE NORTH.


&&
SENT TO ADD LATE REPORTS.
$$

STACHELSKI/STUMPF

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KTSA [152135]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 152135
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
434 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM HAIL HUGO 34.01N 95.51W
05/15/2013 E1.00 INCH CHOCTAW OK TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

RJS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0645

ACUS11 KWNS 152107
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152107
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-152230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0645
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0407 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN PA...PORTIONS OF NRN WV...WRN
MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 152107Z - 152230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT MAY EXIST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WHILE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...A WW IS NOT
IMMINENT.

DISCUSSION...A CUMULUS FIELD IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY AGITATED ALONG
AN ENE/WSW-ORIENTED SFC CONFLUENCE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WARM
SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH LIMITED
CINH. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD LAYER
WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY
SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES WITH WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL SIZES POTENTIALLY REACHING SVR LEVELS. STRONG/SVR SFC WINDS MAY
ALSO BE SUPPORTED BY AROUND 50 KT OF FLOW AROUND 2 KFT AGL PER CCX
VWP DATA. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
STORMS/SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED...OWING TO WEAK DEEP FORCING
FOR ASCENT...AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ONLY GLANCES PARTS
OF THE WARM SECTOR.

..COHEN/CARBIN.. 05/15/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

LAT...LON 40688028 40987876 41027753 40457698 39937708 39787753
39417958 39618072 40688028

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KSJT [152106]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 152106
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
405 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM HAIL NOLAN 32.27N 100.24W
05/15/2013 E1.00 INCH NOLAN TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE


&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1300220

$$

DOLL

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KHNX [152050]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 152050
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
149 PM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0144 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W ROSAMOND 34.85N 118.27W
05/15/2013 M45 MPH KERN CA MESONET

REPORTED AT APRSWXNET STATION AS895

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 160

WWUS20 KWNS 152035
SEL0
SPC WW 152035
OKZ000-TXZ000-160500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 160
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 330 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 90 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF ABILENE TEXAS TO 15 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF DURANT
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

DISCUSSION...COMPLEX STORM EVOLUTION ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENING
AS LIFT AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AND UPPER LOW FORMING OVER CENTRAL
OK ACT ON VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF TX DRYLINE AND ALONG/SOUTH
OF RED RIVER WARM FRONT. CURRENT CLUSTERS OF STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WARM FRONT IN SCNTRL OK WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT WITH STORM INTERACTIONS/MERGERS
POSSIBLY RESULTING IN BRIEFLY STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A TORNADO. WITH TIME FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT
SOUTH AND WEST AS SHEAR AND LIFT STRENGTHEN SOUTH OF THE MID/UPPER
LOW. PROXIMITY TO STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE
WATCH SHOULD SUPPORT ROBUST UPDRAFTS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. EVENTUALLY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MERGE INTO ONE OR TWO CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AND SPREAD ESEWD
ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS THROUGH THE EVENING. TORNADO POTENTIAL
MAY INCREASE IF CONVECTION REMAINS DISCRETE AND INTERACTS WITH
RESIDUAL STORM-SCALE/MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES DURING THE EVENING. IF
THIS POTENTIAL BECOMES EVIDENT...PARTS OF THE REGION MAY NEED TO BE
UPGRADED TO A TORNADO WATCH.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.


...CARBIN

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0644

ACUS11 KWNS 152005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152004
OKZ000-TXZ000-152130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0644
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 152004Z - 152130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER NWRN TX...AND
POSSIBLY EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VERY
LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY...WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT POSSIBLY
MATERIALIZING LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS N CNTRL TX.

DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE JUST
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW FROM SRN OK INTO FAR NRN TX...WHERE A MOIST
AIR MASS EXISTS AND NO CAPPING. SOME OF THE INCREASE IN CORE
INTENSITY CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL
AS AREAS OF HEATING UPSTREAM. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A
MARGINAL HAIL THREAT...AS DEEP SHEAR PROFILES ARE MARGINAL FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH 25-30 KT.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU FIELDS INCREASING ACROSS NWRN TX...AND
EXTENDING SWD TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WHERE STRONG HEATING HAS
STEEPENED LAPSE RATES BENEATH COOL MIDLEVEL AIR. HIGH BASED
CONVECTION WAS NOTED OVER THE TX S PLAINS...INDICATIVE OF THE VERY
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES E...IT WILL
INTERSECT THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. OTHER CELLS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM OVER NWRN TX AS HEATING PERSISTS. NWLY FLOW
ALOFT ATOP SURFACE SELYS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS...WHILE LARGE UPDRAFT ACCELERATION AIDS IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE DAMAGING HAIL.

CONGEALING OUTFLOWS WITH TIME SHOULD CAUSE STORMS TO MERGE INTO ONE
OR MORE MCS/S...POSSIBLY FORWARD PROPAGATING INTO THE METROPLEX AREA
LATER TODAY WITH BOTH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ANY STORMS THAT FORM FARTHER E NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR MAY HAVE A
BRIEF TORNADO THREAT...WHILE PROPENSITY FOR MERGING OUTFLOWS WITH
HIGHER BASED ACTIVITY TO THE W WILL FAVOR WIND AND HAIL.

..JEWELL/CARBIN.. 05/15/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 31100043 31160073 31450103 31940076 32580046 33200030
33870017 34339968 34399961 35039680 35049625 34819611
34569612 32769663 32439669 31839727 31529789 31100043

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0643

ACUS11 KWNS 152000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151959
OKZ000-TXZ000-152130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0643
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 151959Z - 152130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER NWRN TX...AND
POSSIBLY EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VERY
LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY...WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT POSSIBLY
MATERIALIZING LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS N CNTRL TX.

DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE JUST
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW FROM SRN OK INTO FAR NRN TX...WHERE A MOIST
AIR MASS EXISTS AND NO CAPPING. SOME OF THE INCREASE IN CORE
INTENSITY CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL
AS AREAS OF HEATING UPSTREAM. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A
MARGINAL HAIL THREAT...AS DEEP SHEAR PROFILES ARE MARGINAL FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH 25-30 KT.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU FIELDS INCREASING ACROSS NWRN TX...AND
EXTENDING SWD TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WHERE STRONG HEATING HAS
STEEPENED LAPSE RATES BENEATH COOL MIDLEVEL AIR. HIGH BASED
CONVECTION WAS NOTED OVER THE TX S PLAINS...INDICATIVE OF THE VERY
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES E...IT WILL
INTERSECT THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. OTHER CELLS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM OVER NWRN TX AS HEATING PERSISTS. NWLY FLOW
ALOFT ATOP SURFACE SELYS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS...WHILE LARGE UPDRAFT ACCELERATION AIDS IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE DAMAGING HAIL.

CONGEALING OUTFLOWS WITH TIME SHOULD CAUSE STORMS TO MERGE INTO ONE
OR MORE MCS/S...POSSIBLY FORWARD PROPAGATING INTO THE METROPLEX AREA
LATER TODAY WITH BOTH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ANY STORMS THAT FORM FARTHER E NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR MAY HAVE A
BRIEF TORNADO THREAT...WHILE PROPENSITY FOR MERGING OUTFLOWS WITH
HIGHER BASED ACTIVITY TO THE W WILL FAVOR WIND AND HAIL.

..JEWELL/CARBIN.. 05/15/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 31100043 31160073 31450103 31940076 32580046 33200030
33870017 34339968 34399961 35039680 35049625 34819611
34569612 32769663 32439669 31839727 31529789 31100043

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KFGF [151944]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KFGF 151944
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
243 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0614 AM TSTM WND DMG 5 E VALLEY CITY 46.92N 97.90W
05/14/2013 BARNES ND LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEMI-OVERTURNED NR MP 295 ALONG I-94

0623 AM TSTM WND DMG ORISKA 46.93N 97.79W
05/14/2013 BARNES ND LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEMI-TRUCK OVERTURNED.

0641 AM TSTM WND GST FARGO 46.88N 96.82W
05/14/2013 M49.00 MPH CASS ND ASOS

MEASURED 43 KT GUST AT KFAR ASOS

0645 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 NNW FARGO 46.93N 96.85W
05/14/2013 CASS ND PUBLIC

VIA FACEBOOK...PIECES OF SIDING OFF...SWING SET BLOWN
OVER IN NORTH FARGO. ESTIMATED WINDS 60-65 MPH.

0653 AM TSTM WND GST 6 SE MOORHEAD 46.80N 96.67W
05/14/2013 M64.00 MPH CLAY MN AWOS

0713 AM TSTM WND GST LAKE PARK 46.88N 96.10W
05/14/2013 M70.00 MPH BECKER MN DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

MEASURED AT MINNESOTA DOT SITE ALONG HIGHWAY 10


&&

$$

GGUST

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KOUN [151937]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 151937
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
236 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0226 PM HAIL RATLIFF CITY 34.45N 97.51W
05/15/2013 E1.00 INCH CARTER OK POST OFFICE


&&

$$

KURTZ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151935
SWODY1
SPC AC 151933

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX AND SRN
OK...

...TX/OK...

REMNANT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WICHITA
COUNTY IN NWRN TX...MOVING SLOWLY ENEWD. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS
DEEP CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED WITHIN WEAK WARM ADVECTION
ZONE ACROSS OK AND MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS CNTRL/SCNTRL INTO ERN OK INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
GIVEN THIS TREND HAVE INCREASED SEVERE PROBS NORTH OF THE RED RIVER
TO ACCOUNT FOR HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTERING.

FARTHER SOUTH...HAVE EXTENDED HIGHER SEVERE PROBS TO THE RIO GRANDE
RIVER TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT SHOULD EMERGE ALONG
WRN PLUME OF INSTABILITY. CU HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO...WEST OF DRT...AND THIS IS INDICATIVE OF
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT THAT EXISTS WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH.

LATEST THINKING IS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH FROM NWRN TX...SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE
MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONCENTRATED SEVERE INITIATION IS PRIMARILY
NORTH OF I-20. WITH TIME ONE OR MORE MCS-TYPE STRUCTURES COULD
EVOLVE AS THE OVERALL COMPLEX OF STORMS SPREADS TOWARD THE I-35
CORRIDOR.

..DARROW.. 05/15/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

CORRECTED FOR WORDING AT THE END OF 2ND PARAGRAPH.

...NRN AND ERN TX/SRN OK...
COMPLEX SRN BRANCH SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE FROM ERN NM TO W TX WILL
DRIFT/LIFT ENEWD TDY WHILE EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER
OK BY THIS EVENING. A MOIST PLUME CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES AROUND
1.5 INCHES WITHIN THE ERN QUADRANT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
FUEL SCATTERED TSTMS AMIDST A GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING AIRMASS ACROSS
CNTRL AND NRN TX. BAND OF ASCENT CURRENTLY SUPPORTING POORLY
ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS ERN TX IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DRIVE
CONVECTION ENEWD ACROSS SERN OK AND THE ARKLATEX TODAY. AIRMASS TO
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER/MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES. DEEP SHEAR AND POCKETS OF GREATER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY OVER
THESE AREAS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEVERE HAIL/WIND
POTENTIAL BUT OVERALL POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED.

A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE AS THE UPPER LOW
CONSOLIDATES ACROSS OK LATER TODAY AND A BAND OF STRONGER MID LEVEL
WLY FLOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER...ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AND NORTH TX. THIS SHOULD OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGEST
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION EAST OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE. WEAKENING
INHIBITION AND MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG...ALONG WITH JUXTAPOSITION
OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA AND 30-35KT LLJ...WILL COMBINE TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. ACTIVITY MAY
CONGEAL INTO ONE OR TWO SMALL SEWD MOVING MCS/S THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL SPREADING ESEWD OR SEWD
ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR/DFW METROPLEX. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED
BY HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IN THE 00Z STORM SCALE
GUIDANCE FROM SPC SSEO AND AFWA ENSEMBLE. NOTE...00Z SSEO IS MISSING
4KM WRF-NMM MEMBER.

...S TX...
ROBUST STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL
BURRO RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AIDED BY MOIST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.
STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ACROSS THE MIDDLE/LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A SUPERCELL REGIME WITH ACTIVITY MOVING
EWD/SEWD. AN INCREASED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND BRUSH COUNTRY THROUGH
THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN SOMEWHAT STRONGER INHIBITION AND
WEAKER LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THESE AREAS OF S TX...STORM
COVERAGE MAY REMAIN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED.

...PA/NRN WV...
STRONG DEEP-LAYER WLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER CANADA HAS TRANSPORTED A STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME EAST
FROM THE PLAINS/MIDWEST. WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR
AMIDST WEAK TO MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MORE THAN ADEQUATE
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND CONVECTION OVERCOMING STRONG
INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML PLUME/CAPPING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT SETTING INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. SURFACE TEMPS WILL HAVE
TO ATTAIN VALUES WELL INTO THE 80S F TO RESULT IN SFC-BASED STORMS
IN THIS REGIME AND...WHILE A COUPLE OF STORMS SEEM
POSSIBLE...OVERALL SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT MAY BE CONFINED TO AREAS
IMMEDIATELY ALONG SRN PA BORDER AND NRN WV PNHDL WITH UNCERTAINTY
INCREASING WITH EWD EXTENT.

...CNTRL PLAINS/MIDWEST...
SURFACE FRONT TRAILING THE STRONG SHORT WAVE IN CANADA HAS SLOWED
AND BECOME ELONGATED FROM WEST TO EAST...FROM THE KS/NEB BORDER
ACROSS NRN MO TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHILE MUCH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE
LIES SOUTH OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW...SURFACE HEATING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODEST INSTABILITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED STORMS SEEM POSSIBLE IF
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION CAN BE OVERCOME. THIS PROCESS MAY BE ENHANCED
THROUGH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING NEAR THE FRONT...FROM IL EWD TO
OH...AND FARTHER WEST ACROSS MO AND NERN KS...BENEATH WEAK MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE. GENERALLY WEAK FLOW ACROSS THESE AREAS SHOULD
LIMIT STORM PERSISTENCE/ORGANIZATION AND ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY WIND
THREAT AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL BEING THE EXPECTED THREATS WITH ANY
STORMS THAT CAN INITIATE.

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KFGF [151918]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 151918
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
218 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0155 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 2 SSW LANGDON 48.74N 98.39W
05/14/2013 M48.00 MPH CAVALIER ND AWOS

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 48 MPH OCCURRED FROM 155 PM
THROUGH 415 PM CDT. PEAK WINDS REACHED 58 MPH.

0255 PM HIGH SUST WINDS CAVALIER 48.80N 97.62W
05/14/2013 M40.00 MPH PEMBINA ND AWOS

SUSTAINED WINDS OF FROM 35 TO 40 MPH OCCURRED UNTIL 5 PM
CDT... WITH A PEAK WIND OF 52 MPH RECORDED AT 255 PM CDT.


0343 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 15 NW ROCKLAKE 48.94N 99.48W
05/14/2013 E59.00 MPH TOWNER ND AWOS

PEAK WINDS TO 59 MPH ACCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
TOWNER COUNTY FROM JUST EAST OF ROLLA THROUGH ROCKLAKE.
PEAK WINDS TO 51 KTS WERE MEASURED AT THE ROLLA AIRPORT
AROUND 338 PM CDT.


&&

$$

GGUST

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KHNX [151050]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 151050
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
349 AM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1226 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E MOJAVE 35.06N 118.15W
05/15/2013 M52 MPH KERN CA MESONET

REPORTED AT APRSWXNET STATION AT407

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KHNX [151049]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 151049
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
348 AM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0115 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NE MOJAVE 35.07N 118.15W
05/15/2013 M53 MPH KERN CA AWOS

REPORTED AT AWOS STATION MHV

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 150901
SWOD48
SPC AC 150900

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A SEVERAL DAY EPISODE OF FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BEGINNING DAY 4 /SAT. 5-18/...AND
LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 6 /MON. 5-20/.

MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD BEGINS AFFECTING THE PLAINS DAY 4. THE TROUGH IS THEN
PROGGED TO ENTER THE PLAINS DAY 5...AND THEN EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED
LOW DAY 6 AS A SECONDARY SPEED MAX ROTATES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PLAINS.

AS THE TROUGH EVOLVES...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE SYSTEM IS LIKEWISE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...LIKELY FOCUSING DAILY
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD STORMS. WHILE CAPPING WILL LIKELY BE AN
ISSUE -- LIMITING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ALONG SRN REACHES OF THIS
DEVELOPING SYSTEM...EXPECT THAT STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL
PERMIT RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW.

THE GREATEST THREAT DAY 4 WILL LIKELY RESIDE FROM THE DAKOTAS SWD
INTO NRN KS...AS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG
DESTABILIZATION AND THE ERN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
THE MAIN THREATS DAY 4.

DAY 5...STRONG DESTABILIZATION IS AGAIN FORECAST WHICH -- COMBINED
WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR SPREADING FARTHER E...SUGGESTS THAT THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD EXTEND
FROM THE MID MO VALLEY REGION SWD INTO KS/MO/OK AND VICINITY.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT DAY 6 MAY BE THE DAY OF HIGHEST TORNADO
POTENTIAL...AS A REINFORCING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX SHIFTS INTO THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE MAIN AXIS OF SEVERE WEATHER
APPEARS LIKELY TO EXTEND FROM THE IA/IL AREA SWWD ACROSS MO INTO
PARTS OF KS/OK/AR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THREAT MAY CONTINUE DAY 7...A BIT FARTHER E THAN DAY 6...BUT MORE
UNCERTAINTY AND HINTS OF SOMEWHAT DECREASED SEVERE POTENTIAL ARE
EVIDENT ATTM. THUS...NO OUTLOOK AREAS WILL BE ISSUED BEYOND DAY 6
ATTM.

..GOSS.. 05/15/2013

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 150720
SWODY3
SPC AC 150719

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW FIELD ACROSS THE U.S. IS
FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS THE SHARP WRN U.S. TROUGH ADVANCES SLOWLY
EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE
STRENGTHENS.

AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
FEATURE OF INTEREST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE EAST.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS...
SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD
AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES. THUS...DESPITE DIURNAL HEATING
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE AFTERNOON CAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS...STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS PROGGED TO BE HINDERED ACROSS THE REGION.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT -- ALBEIT STILL
ISOLATED -- APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO
PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS...WHERE MODELS FORECAST WEAK CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEE TROUGH. WITH THE BELT OF STRONGER /30-40
KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS AREA...A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY
ORGANIZE/BECOME SEVERE -- CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND/OR
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. ATTM...WILL INTRODUCE ONLY 5% SEVERE
PROBABILITY...DUE TO ANTICIPATED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION.

..GOSS.. 05/15/2013

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 150559
SWODY2
SPC AC 150558

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO SUBSTANTIAL AMPLIFICATION
THIS PERIOD...AS AN ERN PACIFIC TROUGH DIGS SEWD AND MOVES ONSHORE
OVER THE WEST. AS THIS OCCURS...A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. -- THOUGH WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE FORECAST
TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE/BACKGROUND
RIDGING. MEANWHILE...A LOW-AMPLITUDE/SRN STREAM TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IS PROGGED TO BE
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD -- ALONG WITH
THE WRN PORTION OF A WEAK W-E BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION WWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MUCH OF NEB AND VICINITY...
A WEAK VORT MAX CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION IS FORECAST TO
ASSIST IN AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT -- BOTH ALONG A LEE
TROUGH AND EWD INVOF A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIE ACROSS
THE KS/NEB VICINITY...AS DIURNAL HEATING SUPPORTS DEVELOPMENT OF
1000 TO 1500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE ACROSS THIS REGION.

THOUGH FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MODEST...BOUNDARY-LAYER
SELYS VEERING TO WLY AT MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN 0-6 KM SHEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST WEAKLY-ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WHILE SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND LOCATION OF SUBTLE
FEATURES CROSSING THE PLAINS WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE RIDGE DO
EXIST...WILL INTRODUCE LOW /5%/ PROBABILITY FOR HAIL/WIND ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY AS A FEW STRONGER CELLS ARE
LIKELY TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE
STORMS DIURNALLY WEAKEN.

..GOSS.. 05/15/2013

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 150556
SWODY1
SPC AC 150553

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WCNTRL TX...

...SRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OK
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WCNTRL TX. AT THE
SFC...A LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS WEST TX AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES ALONG A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM NEAR CHILDRESS TO
AROUND SAN ANGELO. MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INITIATE TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON BUT DIFFER
ON THE NORTH TO SOUTH EXTENT OF STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE NAM SOLUTION
IS FURTHER SOUTH MOVING A CLUSTER OF STORMS ESEWD ACROSS THE TX HILL
COUNTRY WHILE THE GFS FOCUSES CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE RED
RIVER. IT APPEAR REASONABLE THAT A CLUSTER OF STORMS COULD ORGANIZE
AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING BUT THE EXACT SCENARIO REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG/...MODERATE
TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR /0-6 KM OF 40 TO 55 KT/ AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE
INTENSE CORES. IN SPITE OF THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY THE ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT MAKING AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK
WARRANTED. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST FROM CHILDRESS
SWD TO JUST SOUTH OF SAN ANGELO WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST
TO BECOME ENHANCED DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND THE DRYLINE MAY
BULGE.

...UPPER OH VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SERN CANADA AND THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES TODAY. AT THE SFC... A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS WRN NY AND WRN PA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SFC
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S F ALLOWING FOR SOME
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WITH CONVECTION MOVING EWD ACROSS PA INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SEE TEXT
AREA AT 21Z SHOW SBCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG WITH 40 KT OF 0-6
KM SHEAR AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT BUT THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO THE LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS.

...NE KS/NCNTRL MO/SCNTRL IL...
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. AT THE
SFC...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NWD ACROSS NERN KS...NCNTRL MO AND SRN
IL TODAY WITH MODERATE DESTABILIZATION POSSIBLY TAKING PLACE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE MODELS AGAIN APPEAR TO BE
OVERESTIMATING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT BUT SFC DEWPOINTS
STILL COULD REACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 F IN NCNTRL MO THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A WIND DAMAGE
THREAT WITH CELLS THAT CAN INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES/LEITMAN.. 05/15/2013

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KBRO [150531]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBRO 150531
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1231 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1145 PM TSTM WND DMG 11 N SAN YGNACIO 27.19N 99.43W
05/14/2013 ZAPATA TX TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTS TREE DOWN ACROSS HIGHWAY 83 BETWEEN
ZAPATA AND LAREDO. ESTIMATED WINDS AT 50 MPH WHEN DAMAGE
OCCURRED.


&&

EVENT NUMBER BRO1300014

$$

JGG

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KMKX [150510]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KMKX 150510
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1210 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0820 PM TSTM WND DMG WATERLOO 43.18N 88.99W
05/14/2013 JEFFERSON WI PUBLIC

LARGE BARN BLOWN DOWN AND 4 X 4 POSTS RIPPED OUT OF THE
GROUND AT W7769 ISLAND ROAD. REPORT RELAYED BY JEFFERSON
COUNTY SHERIFF AT 1040 PM.


&&

$$

MRC

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KMKX [150405]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KMKX 150405
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1105 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM TSTM WND GST SAUK CITY 43.27N 89.73W
05/14/2013 E50.00 MPH SAUK WI TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCHES BLOWN DOWN. CONSTRUCTION
BARRELS BLOWN OVER. REPORT RELAYED FROM NWS-LA CROSSE.

0800 PM TSTM WND GST SUN PRAIRIE 43.18N 89.23W
05/14/2013 E60.00 MPH DANE WI TRAINED SPOTTER

MULTIPLE POWER LINES DOWN AND/OR SNAPPED OFF, LIGHT POLE
DOWN, WINDSPREAD 2 FT DIAMETER TREES DOWN

0815 PM TSTM WND GST ASHIPPUN 43.21N 88.52W
05/14/2013 E50.00 MPH DODGE WI PUBLIC

HWY 67 AND 0.

0815 PM TSTM WND DMG MARSHALL 43.17N 89.06W
05/14/2013 DANE WI TRAINED SPOTTER

6 INCH TREE LIMBS DOWN, SIDING, GUTTERS, DOWNSPOUTS TORN
OFF HOUSE

0820 PM TSTM WND DMG WATERLOO 43.18N 88.99W
05/14/2013 JEFFERSON WI PUBLIC

LARGE BARN BLOWN DOWN AND 4 X 4 POSTS RIPPED OUT OF THE
GROUND AT W7769 HIGHLAND ROAD. REPORT RELAYED BY
JEFFERSON COUNTY SHERIFF AT 1040 PM.

0835 PM TSTM WND GST 2 SE OCONOMOWOC 43.09N 88.47W
05/14/2013 E50.00 MPH WAUKESHA WI TRAINED SPOTTER

SUSTAINED 50 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH

0840 PM TSTM WND GST OCONOMOWOC 43.11N 88.50W
05/14/2013 M68.00 MPH WAUKESHA WI TRAINED SPOTTER

TIME ESTIMATED. SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT.

0855 PM TSTM WND DMG HARTLAND 43.10N 88.34W
05/14/2013 WAUKESHA WI BROADCAST MEDIA

WAUKESHA COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED TREES AND POWER LINES
DOWN IN HARTLAND...MERTON AND DELAFIELD AREAS. RELAYED BY
TV MEDIA VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

0857 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 E PEWAUKEE 43.09N 88.19W
05/14/2013 WAUKESHA WI PUBLIC

60 FOOT PINE TREE DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED. RELAYED VIA
SOCIAL MEDIA.

0900 PM TSTM WND DMG DELAFIELD 43.07N 88.39W
05/14/2013 WAUKESHA WI LAW ENFORCEMENT

WIRES AND TREES DOWN IN THE DELAFIELD...MERTON...AND
HARTLAND AREAS.

0905 PM TSTM WND GST WAUWATOSA 43.06N 88.03W
05/14/2013 E50.00 MPH MILWAUKEE WI TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
ON I-94/MILWAUKEE COUNTY ZOO. CONSTRUCTION BARRELS BLOWN
AROUND AND LOOSE CARDBOARD DEBRIS FLYING IN THE AIR.

0920 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SW MILWAUKEE 43.00N 87.96W
05/14/2013 MILWAUKEE WI BROADCAST MEDIA

MILWAUKEE FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTED SEVERAL TREE
FIRES...LIVE WIRES DOWN AND TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED.
HOUSE FIRE DUE TO LIVE WIRES ON HOUSE. RELAYED BY TV
MEDIA VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

0930 PM TSTM WND DMG WEST ALLIS 43.01N 88.03W
05/14/2013 MILWAUKEE WI PUBLIC

LARGE BRANCHES DOWN NEAR 71ST AND BECHER STREET. SOCIAL
MEDIA REPORT.

0941 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 N MILWAUKEE INTERNATI 42.99N 87.90W
05/14/2013 MILWAUKEE WI AMATEUR RADIO

AT INTERSECTION OF HOWELL AND MORGAN AVENUES...6 INCH TO
8 INCH DIAMETER TREE ACROSS THE ROAD.

0945 PM TSTM WND GST MILWAUKEE C-MAN 43.05N 87.88W
05/14/2013 M39.00 MPH MILWAUKEE WI C-MAN STATION

34 KNOT WIND GUST AT MILWAUKEE LAKESHORE SITE...MLWW3.

0957 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NW CLINTON 42.58N 88.89W
05/14/2013 ROCK WI LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN.


&&

$$

MRC

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KMKX [150404]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KMKX 150404
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1104 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM TSTM WND GST SAUK CITY 43.27N 89.73W
05/14/2013 E50.00 MPH SAUK WI TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCHES BLOWN DOWN. CONSTRUCTION
BARRELS BLOWN OVER. REPORT RELAYED FROM NWS-LA CROSSE.


&&

$$

MRC

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