DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 150720
SWODY3
SPC AC 150719

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW FIELD ACROSS THE U.S. IS
FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS THE SHARP WRN U.S. TROUGH ADVANCES SLOWLY
EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE
STRENGTHENS.

AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
FEATURE OF INTEREST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE EAST.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS...
SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD
AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES. THUS...DESPITE DIURNAL HEATING
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE AFTERNOON CAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS...STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS PROGGED TO BE HINDERED ACROSS THE REGION.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT -- ALBEIT STILL
ISOLATED -- APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO
PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS...WHERE MODELS FORECAST WEAK CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEE TROUGH. WITH THE BELT OF STRONGER /30-40
KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS AREA...A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY
ORGANIZE/BECOME SEVERE -- CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND/OR
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. ATTM...WILL INTRODUCE ONLY 5% SEVERE
PROBABILITY...DUE TO ANTICIPATED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION.

..GOSS.. 05/15/2013

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