KBMX [110328]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 110328
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
928 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0433 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG COLUMBIANA 33.18N 86.60W
11/10/2009 SHELBY AL EMERGENCY MNGR

MULTIPLE TREES DOWN AROUND SHELBY COUNTY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS GUSTY WINDS KNOCK DOWN TREES IN GROUND SATURATED
AREAS. REPORTS OF POWER LINES DOWN BECAUSE OF THE TREES
COUNTY WIDE AS WELL.

&&

$$

SUNGER

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KBMX [110307]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 110307
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
907 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 N TRUSSVILLE 33.68N 86.60W
11/10/2009 M4.30 INCH JEFFERSON AL PUBLIC

STORM TOTAL FROM COCORAHS. 2.73 INCHES IN THE LAST 14
HOURS.

&&

$$

SUNGER

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KBMX [110302]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 110302
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
902 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 PM HEAVY RAIN WEDOWEE 33.31N 85.49W
11/10/2009 M4.45 INCH RANDOLPH AL EMERGENCY MNGR

STORM TOTAL.

0833 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNW PHENIX CITY 32.49N 85.03W
11/10/2009 M6.00 INCH RUSSELL AL PUBLIC

STORM TOTALS FROM COCORAHS.

0855 PM FLOOD CHILDERSBURG 33.28N 86.35W
11/10/2009 TALLADEGA AL EMERGENCY MNGR

ROAD CLOSURE. 6 INCHES OF WATER IN THE ROAD AT THE
INTERSECTION OF COSPER BEND ROAD AND
CHILDERBURG-FAYETTEVILLE HWY.

0855 PM FLOOD CHILDERSBURG 33.28N 86.35W
11/10/2009 TALLADEGA AL EMERGENCY MNGR

ROAD CLOSURE. 16TH AVE AT CHILDERSBURG-FAYETTEVILLE HWY.

&&

$$

SUNGER

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KBMX [110234]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 110234
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
834 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 W HOLT 33.25N 87.58W
11/10/2009 M3.57 INCH TUSCALOOSA AL EMERGENCY MNGR

STORM TOTAL.

0409 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG GADSDEN 34.01N 86.01W
11/10/2009 ETOWAH AL EMERGENCY MNGR

MULTIPLE REPORTS OF SINGLE TREES DOWN AROUND THE CITY OF
GADSDEN.

0427 PM HEAVY RAIN OPELIKA 32.65N 85.38W
11/10/2009 M4.02 INCH LEE AL EMERGENCY MNGR

SINCE MIDNIGHT. STORM TOTALS OF 4.59 INCHES.

0645 PM FLOOD GADSDEN 34.01N 86.01W
11/10/2009 ETOWAH AL EMERGENCY MNGR

MULTIPLE ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE
CITY OF GADSDEN.

0810 PM FLOOD ANNISTON 33.66N 85.81W
11/10/2009 CALHOUN AL EMERGENCY MNGR

3 BLOCKS OF DOWNTOWN ANNISTON IS UNDER 2.5 FEET OF
STANDING WATER.

0815 PM FLOOD ANNISTON 33.66N 85.81W
11/10/2009 CALHOUN AL EMERGENCY MNGR

ROAD CLOSURE. DOUG WELCH AND MEEKS ROADS IN THE
ALEXANDRIA AREA.

0815 PM FLOOD SAKS 33.71N 85.85W
11/10/2009 CALHOUN AL EMERGENCY MNGR

ROAD CLOSURE. POST OAK RD AND US HWY 431.

0833 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG WETUMPKA 32.54N 86.20W
11/10/2009 ELMORE AL EMERGENCY MNGR

MULTIPLE TREES DOWN AROUND THE COUNTY AS GUSTY WINDS
KNOCK TREES DOWN IN GROUND SATURATED AREAS.

&&

$$

SUNGER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 110057
SWODY1
SPC AC 110056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FL...
EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS REFLECTS A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS
THE FL PANHANDLE...WITH 70F AND GREATER SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONFINED
TO FL GULF COASTAL AREAS AND FAR EASTERN GULF AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION OF ANY APPRECIABLE VIGOR STILL REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT OWING TO LIMITED
MOISTURE/BUOYANCY INLAND AND OTHERWISE NEUTRAL TO DECAY STAGE OF THE
PARENT EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES
FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR CONVECTIVE WIND MAINLY ACROSS THE GULF
COASTAL PORTIONS OF FL. OWING TO LOW LEVEL MOISTENING/MID LEVEL
DRYING SINCE 12Z THIS MORNING...THE 00Z OBSERVED RAOB FROM
TALLAHASSEE SAMPLES AN ENVIRONMENT THAT COULD SUPPORT A NEAR SURFACE
BASED STORM...WITH 200-250 MS/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH CONDITIONALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES/BRIEF TORNADO...ALTHOUGH
CONSIDERABLE UPSTREAM DRYING SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR AND THE
IMPETUS FOR AN UPSWING IN CONVECTIVE VIGOR SEEMS LIMITED. FARTHER
SOUTH...WHILE A RICHER MARITIME MOISTURE INFLUX MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE
FL WEST COAST THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY VEER/WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND THUS KEEP THE TORNADO/WIND RISK LOW.

..GUYER.. 11/11/2009

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KLUB [102224]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 102224
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
422 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 AM DENSE FOG AMHERST 34.01N 102.41W
11/10/2009 E0.00 MILE LAMB TX NEWSPAPER

*** 1 FATAL *** A FATAL AUTOMOBILE ACCIDENT ON FM 1055
NR AMHERST WAS ATTRIBUTED TO DENSE FOG. TX DPS RPT
RELAYED BY LOCAL PRINT MEDIA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB0900675

$$

LINDLEY

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KFFC [102207]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 102207
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
506 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0458 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG HOMER 34.33N 83.50W
11/10/2009 BANKS GA EMERGENCY MNGR

4 TREES DOWN...2 POWERS LINES DOWN DUE TO FALLEN TREES.

&&

$$

SLAMBACK

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KLIX [102142]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 102142
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
342 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 PM TROPICAL STORM BILOXI 30.42N 88.93W
11/09/2009 HARRISON MS NEWSPAPER

LARGE TREE FELL ON HOME DAMAGING A BEDROOM.

&&

$$

PGRIGSBY

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KBMX [102050]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 102050
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
250 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM FLOOD AUBURN 32.59N 85.48W
11/10/2009 LEE AL EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL COUNTY ROADS AROUND LEE COUNTY WERE CLOSED DUE TO
HIGH WATER CAUSED BY THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH IDA.

&&

$$

61

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101929
SWODY1
SPC AC 101928

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...20Z UPDATE...
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...OR THE LACK THEREOF...REMAINS THE
MOST PROMINENT ISSUE CONCERNING CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH
THE BALANCE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TONGUE OF LOWER 70S SURFACE
DEW POINTS DOES APPEAR TO BE ADVECTING INLAND ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND REGION INTO SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW CENTER OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BUT...A WARM
MID-LEVEL AIR MASS ACCOMPANYING IDA CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. TO THIS POINT... THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BEEN
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

HOWEVER...GUIDANCE REMAINS SUGGESTIVE THAT WEAK DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL
ADVECTION COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF STATES LATER
THIS EVENING. THIS COULD BE BOUNDARY LAYER BASED ACROSS THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND/NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...WHERE SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW MAY
REMAIN ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KT...CONTRIBUTING TO SIZABLE CLOCKWISE
CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST NON- NEGLIGIBLE
TORNADO PROBABILITIES.

..KERR.. 11/10/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009/

...SYNOPSIS...
LOW AMPLITUDE/PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE LOWER 48 ASIDE FROM A MID-LEVEL TROUGH INTERACTING WITH
DECAYING T.D. IDA OVER PORTIONS OF THE SERN U.S. AT THE
SURFACE...AN ELONGATED SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD
TO THE SRN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SEWD OVER
PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OH VALLEY. IDA/S CENTER THIS MORNING
WAS ANALYZED NEAR THE FL/AL GULF COAST...AND IT WILL SLOWLY MEANDER
EWD OVER PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACCORDING TO
LATEST NHC FORECAST.

...NERN GULF COAST...
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR MOSAIC DATA SHOW A BAND OF
CONVECTION ALIGNED FROM EXTREME SW GA/E FL PANHANDLE SWD INTO THE
E-CNTRL GULF. AS T.D. IDA WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE HYBRID-LIKE AND
EXTRATROPICAL WITH TIME...LOW LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS
TO SLIGHTLY VEER AND SHIFT NWD TO THE GA/CAROLINA PIEDMONT PARTLY IN
RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH FROM THE W SHIFTING N AND EWD OVER THE SERN
U.S. WITH THAT SAID...VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WITHIN MORE
THAN ADEQUATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL CONDITIONALLY REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE FOR PERHAPS AN ISOLD DMGG WIND GUST OR TORNADO...MAINLY
WITH ANY ROBUST UPDRAFT LOCATED ALONG THE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE
SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE ERN FL PANHANDLE AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
BIG BEND/WRN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 101722
SWODY2
SPC AC 101721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL
REMAIN LARGELY ZONAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITHIN THIS
REGIME...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
WILL SPLIT OFF THE STRONGER BRANCH OF WESTERLIES...BEFORE DIGGING
INTO TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WITHIN THE WEAKER SOUTHERN
STREAM. CONSOLIDATION OF SEVERAL IMPULSES...INCLUDING THE REMNANTS
OF IDA...IS PROGGED TO EVENTUAL CONTRIBUTE TO A DEEPENING LOWER/MID
LEVEL CYCLONE OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY.

...FLORIDA...
WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION APPEARS POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENINSULA PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE
OF A WEAK SURFACE FRONT...AND THE ONSET OF MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH. CAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF FAIRLY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...BUT
WARM AND MOIST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COUPLED WITH WEAK TO MODEST
DEEP LAYER SHEAR LIKELY WILL PRECLUDE AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL.

HOWEVER...TORNADIC POTENTIAL IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT LOW-LEVEL FLOW /NEAR OR BELOW 850 MB/
ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KT COULD LINGER INTO/THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITHIN A PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY BELT ACROSS THE
PENINSULA...AS THE REMNANT SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IDA MIGRATES
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WHILE THIS WILL NOT YIELD
PARTICULARLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS WILL STILL BE SIZABLE IN THE PRESENCE OF A POSITIVELY
BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F.
THUS...THE RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY NOT BE
COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN AND AROUND THE
ORLANDO/MELBOURNE AREAS.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW BENEATH A RATHER COLD MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTIVE OF THE CONTINUING RISK FOR
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION. LOW THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES MAY BE
ENHANCED A BIT BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD COASTAL AREAS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

..KERR.. 11/10/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101621
SWODY1
SPC AC 101619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LOW AMPLITUDE/PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE LOWER 48 ASIDE FROM A MID-LEVEL TROUGH INTERACTING WITH
DECAYING T.D. IDA OVER PORTIONS OF THE SERN U.S. AT THE
SURFACE...AN ELONGATED SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD
TO THE SRN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SEWD OVER
PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OH VALLEY. IDA/S CENTER THIS MORNING
WAS ANALYZED NEAR THE FL/AL GULF COAST...AND IT WILL SLOWLY MEANDER
EWD OVER PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACCORDING TO
LATEST NHC FORECAST.

...NERN GULF COAST...
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR MOSAIC DATA SHOW A BAND OF
CONVECTION ALIGNED FROM EXTREME SW GA/E FL PANHANDLE SWD INTO THE
E-CNTRL GULF. AS T.D. IDA WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE HYBRID-LIKE AND
EXTRATROPICAL WITH TIME...LOW LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS
TO SLIGHTLY VEER AND SHIFT NWD TO THE GA/CAROLINA PIEDMONT PARTLY IN
RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH FROM THE W SHIFTING N AND EWD OVER THE SERN
U.S. WITH THAT SAID...VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WITHIN MORE
THAN ADEQUATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL CONDITIONALLY REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE FOR PERHAPS AN ISOLD DMGG WIND GUST OR TORNADO...MAINLY
WITH ANY ROBUST UPDRAFT LOCATED ALONG THE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE
SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE ERN FL PANHANDLE AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
BIG BEND/WRN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

..SMITH/EVANS.. 11/10/2009

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KBMX [101320]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 101320
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
720 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM FLOOD MOUNT WILLING 32.06N 86.70W
11/10/2009 LOWNDES AL EMERGENCY MNGR

ROADS FLOODED IN MOUNT WILLING AT KNIGHTS PLACE ROAD.
FLOODWATERS HAVE ENTERED THREE MOBILE HOMES REQUIRING
EVACUATION.

&&

$$

JSIRMON

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101248
SWODY1
SPC AC 101246

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE WSWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE NATION
THIS PERIOD AS BROAD...LARGER SCALE TROUGH PERSISTS OFF THE BC/WA
CST. FARTHER SOUTH...TROPICAL STORM IDA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
EXTRATROPICAL AS REMNANT CIRCULATION PHASES WITH AMPLIFYING
DISTURBANCES IN THE SRN STREAM.

...NERN GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW T.S. IDA BECOMING INCREASINGLY
ABSORBED WITHIN COMPLEX OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE IMPULSES NOW PHASING
OVER THE LWR MS VLY. BAND OF CONFLUENCE EXTENDING SSW FROM IDA
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ACCELERATE EWD LATER THIS MORNING
AS WLY COMPONENT TO MID LVL FLOW INCREASES WITH CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF PROGRESSIVE...LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER REGION.

THE CONVERGENCE BAND WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER THE NERN GULF AND PARTS OF NRN/WRN FL TODAY/TONIGHT AS THE
FEATURE GRADUALLY ASSUMES COLD FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. LOW LVL
WINDS AHEAD OF THE BAND SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME. IN ADDITION...
WIND PROFILES LIKELY WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR STORMS TO REMAIN
DISCRETE AND/OR MOVE OFF THE CONFLUENCE ZONE. BUT LOW LVL
SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL NEVERTHELESS REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO POSE
A THREAT FOR LOW LVL SHOWER/STORM ROTATION...GIVEN AVAILABILITY OF
RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LIKELIHOOD FOR MODEST DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION. THUS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A BRIEF
TORNADO...AND/OR A SPOT OR TWO OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND. ANY SUCH
THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST ALONG OR CLOSE TO THE FL CST...FROM THE
CSTL BEND AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...SSE TO THE TPA AREA BY EVE.

..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 11/10/2009

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KTAE [101116]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 101116
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
615 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0609 AM STORM SURGE APALACHICOLA 29.72N 84.99W
11/10/2009 M3.00 FT FRANKLIN FL OFFICIAL NWS OBS

APALACHICOLA TIDE GAGE INIDCATES AROUND 3 FEET OF STORM
SURGE THUS FAR.

0610 AM STORM SURGE ST. MARKS 30.16N 84.21W
11/10/2009 U0.00 FT WAKULLA FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTH BOUND PORTION OF OLD FORT
ROAD IN SAINT MARKS.

0610 AM TROPICAL STORM PORT ST. JOE 29.81N 85.30W
11/10/2009 GULF FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

A FEW TREES AND POWERLINES REPORTED DOWN ACROSS THE
COUNTY WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS OVERNIGHT. TIME
UNKNOWN.

&&

$$

GODSEY

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KJAN [101112]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 101112
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
512 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG MCLAURIN 31.17N 89.22W
11/10/2009 FORREST MS EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES REPORTED DOWN IN THE VICINITY OF CAMP SHELBY AS
WELL AS IN OTHER RURAL AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN FORREST
COUNTY.

&&

$$

19

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2173

ACUS11 KWNS 101027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101027
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-101200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2173
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0427 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE...FAR SE AL AND FAR SW GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 101027Z - 101200Z

AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE...FAR
SE AL AND FAR SW GA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR WW ISSUANCE.

TROPICAL STORM IDA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED VERY NEAR THE MS COAST WITH
A LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN LOCATED ON THE NERN SIDE OF IDA. THE SRN
EXTENT OF THE RAIN SHIELD IS LOCATED ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE
CONVECTION IS MORE DISCRETE IN NATURE. THE CELLS EXTEND ABOUT 100
STATUTE MILES OFFSHORE AND SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SRN EXTENT OF A 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED
ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE THE TALLAHASSEE WSR-88D VWP IS
SAMPLING ABOUT 45 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR. THIS ALONG WITH THE DISCRETE
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION MAY RESULT IN ROTATING STORMS THAT MOVE
ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MARGINAL...A BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EARLY THIS
MORNING.

..BROYLES.. 11/10/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON 30538656 30038561 29608515 30078414 30538413 30808433
31148482 31508616 31068667 30538656

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KLIX [100830]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 100830
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
229 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0107 AM FLOOD BAY ST. LOUIS 30.31N 89.33W
11/10/2009 HANCOCK MS EMERGENCY MNGR

COASTAL FLOODING INUNDATION OF SEVERAL LOW LYING ROADS
AND STREETS IN HANCOCK COUNTY FROM BAY ST. LOUIS...NEAR
SAINT LOUIS BAY...TO PEARLINGTON INCLUDING SHORELINE PARK
AREA. MANY ROADS WERE EITHER IMPASSABLE OR HAD HIGH
WATER. WATER HAD RECEDED BETWEEN 930 AND 1030 PM...BUT
ROSE DRAMATICALLY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WAVELAND TIDE GAGE
SHOWED A RISE OF 1.5 FEET IN THE LAST 4 HOURS.

&&

$$

TDESTRI

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 100814
SWOD48
SPC AC 100813

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

VALID 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...

SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN VERY LOW UNTIL LATER DAY 5 OR DAY 6
WHEN MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE CNTRL STATES. MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND MODELS CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE RUN-TO-RUN
INCONSISTENCIES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WHILE A MODEST THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY BY DAY
6...OVERALL PREDICTABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE A RISK AREA
AT THIS TIME.

..DIAL.. 11/10/2009

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KMOB [100752]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMOB 100752
LSRMOB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
152 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 PM FLASH FLOOD ORANGE BEACH 30.30N 87.58W
11/09/2009 BALDWIN AL BROADCAST MEDIA

WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING IN ORANGE BEACH.

&&

$$

CACERES

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 100729
SWODY3
SPC AC 100728

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...SRN FL...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SRN FL EARLY
THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT A MID-LEVEL THERMAL INVERSION WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SHALLOW
CONVECTION WITH LIMITED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

...ELSEWHERE...

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW. A LARGE AREA OF CP HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL MAINTAIN OFFSHORE FLOW OVER MOST OF
THE GULF AND STABLE CONDITIONS INLAND.

..DIAL.. 11/10/2009

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2172

ACUS11 KWNS 100723
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100723
GAZ000-ALZ000-101000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2172
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN AL...WRN GA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 100723Z - 101000Z

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS ECNTRL AL INTO WRN GA THROUGH
EARLY THE MORNING. RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

TROPICAL STORM IDA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE FROM GULF PORT
MS. THE CENTER OF IDA WILL MOVE ONSHORE AS A LARGE COMMA-SHAPED AREA
OF HEAVY RAIN SPREADS NNEWD ACROSS ECNTRL AL AND WRN GA BEING
SUPPORTED BY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF A 50
TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ESTIMATED BY
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCH RANGE EXTENDING AS FAR
NORTH AS COLUMBUS GA AND MONTGOMERY AL. THIS DEEP MOIST LAYER SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD AIDING HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT. AROUND 1
INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MCD AREA BEFORE A DRY SLOT WORKS QUICKLY NNEWD ENDING THE HEAVY
RAINFALL GRADUALLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS ERN AL AND WRN GA
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

..BROYLES.. 11/10/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 32008445 32508381 32888376 33258432 33568556 33318659
32888762 32548787 32228759 32148683 31818638 31238583
31418525 32008445

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 100606
SWODY2
SPC AC 100604

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR MISSPELLED WORD IN SECOND PARAGRAPH

...SERN STATES...

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SERN STATES WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO PHASE WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH BEFORE MOVING OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD WEDNESDAY EVENING. IDA IS IN THE PROCESS OF
BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT MOVES INLAND AND INTERACTS WITH THE
EWD ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. REMNANT OF IDA IS FORECAST BY NHC TO
TURN EAST AND WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH SRN GA OR
NRN FL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT EAST OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM SRN GA THROUGH FL. A
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND TENDENCY FOR THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
THIS PERIOD.

...ELSEWHERE...

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW COAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. OTHERWISE...OFFSHORE
FLOW OVER THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS INLAND.

..DIAL.. 11/10/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 100539
SWODY2
SPC AC 100538

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN STATES...

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SERN STATES WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO PHASE WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH BEFORE MOVING OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD WEDNESDAY EVENING. IDA IS IN THE PROCESS OF
BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT MOVES INLAND AND INTERACTS WITH THE
EWD ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. REMNANT OF IDA IS FORECAST BY NHC TO
TURN EAST AND WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH SRN GA OR
NRN FL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT EAST OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM SRN GA THROUGH FL. A
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND TENDENCY FOR THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
THIS PERIOD.

...ELSEWHERE...

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COLD MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW COAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. OTHERWISE...OFFSHORE
FLOW OVER THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS INLAND.

..DIAL.. 11/10/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 100536
SWODY1
SPC AC 100534

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE/GENERALLY LOW AMPLITUDE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AHEAD OF A BROADER
UPPER TROUGH NEARING THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
FARTHER SOUTH...TROPICAL STORM IDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY EXTRATROPICAL /REFERENCE NHC FORECASTS/ OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AS IT PHASES WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM BRANCH OF
MODEST WESTERLIES/UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES.

...NORTHEAST GULF COAST...
AS TROPICAL STORM IDA MOVES ONSHORE AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS/BECOMES
INCREASINGLY EXTRATROPICAL...ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WINDS ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF REMNANT IDA WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF FL
INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF GA/AL. EVEN WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH
FOR STORM ROTATION...IT STILL APPEARS THAT A RELATIVELY STABLE
AIRMASS WILL HOLD IN MOST INLAND AREAS. LIMITED SURFACE BASED
DESTABILIZATION/WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF AN EFFECTIVE
FRONT ALONG THE FL/GA BORDER...AS THE RICHEST MARITIME AIRMASS
/73-75 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ OTHERWISE SHOULD TEND TO REMAIN CONFINED
TO THE IMMEDIATE FL GULF COAST AND OFFSHORE AREAS. WILL MAINTAIN LOW
TORNADO/CONVECTIVE WIND PROBABILITIES FOR THE PERIOD...BUT OVERALL
POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
FACTORS.

..GUYER.. 11/10/2009

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