MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2173

ACUS11 KWNS 101027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101027
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-101200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2173
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0427 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE...FAR SE AL AND FAR SW GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 101027Z - 101200Z

AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE...FAR
SE AL AND FAR SW GA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR WW ISSUANCE.

TROPICAL STORM IDA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED VERY NEAR THE MS COAST WITH
A LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN LOCATED ON THE NERN SIDE OF IDA. THE SRN
EXTENT OF THE RAIN SHIELD IS LOCATED ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE
CONVECTION IS MORE DISCRETE IN NATURE. THE CELLS EXTEND ABOUT 100
STATUTE MILES OFFSHORE AND SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SRN EXTENT OF A 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED
ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE THE TALLAHASSEE WSR-88D VWP IS
SAMPLING ABOUT 45 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR. THIS ALONG WITH THE DISCRETE
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION MAY RESULT IN ROTATING STORMS THAT MOVE
ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MARGINAL...A BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EARLY THIS
MORNING.

..BROYLES.. 11/10/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON 30538656 30038561 29608515 30078414 30538413 30808433
31148482 31508616 31068667 30538656

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