KOTX [012222]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KOTX 012222
LSROTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
222 PM PST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW Tonsket 11NE 48.80N 119.26W
02/01/2012 M1.5 INCH OKANOGAN WA CO-OP OBSERVER

0900 AM SNOW PLAIN 47.78N 120.65W
02/01/2012 M0.6 INCH CHELAN WA CO-OP OBSERVER

1132 AM SNOW 5 SSE CUSICK 48.27N 117.27W
02/01/2012 M2.8 INCH PEND OREILLE WA CO-OP OBSERVER

SACHEEN LAKE

0130 PM SNOW 3 SW CLAYTON 47.96N 117.60W
02/01/2012 M2.5 INCH STEVENS WA NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

RMILLER

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KTSA [012157]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KTSA 012157
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
357 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0945 AM HAIL MCALESTER 34.93N 95.77W
02/01/2012 E1.00 INCH PITTSBURG OK BROADCAST MEDIA

MOSTLY NICKELS AND SMALLER BUT A FEW AS BIG AS A QUARTER.
RELAYED BY KOTV.

1050 AM HAIL 8 ENE ASHLAND 34.81N 95.94W
02/01/2012 E1.00 INCH PITTSBURG OK BROADCAST MEDIA

DELAYED MEDIA REPORT.

1105 AM HAIL 3 W WISTER 34.97N 94.78W
02/01/2012 E0.75 INCH LE FLORE OK EMERGENCY MNGR

DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR WISTER.

1115 AM HAIL WISTER 34.97N 94.72W
02/01/2012 E0.88 INCH LE FLORE OK EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

AEJ

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KTSA [012156]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 012156
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
356 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1050 AM HAIL 8 ENE ASHLAND 34.81N 95.94W
02/01/2012 E1.00 INCH PITTSBURG OK BROADCAST MEDIA

DELAYED MEDIA REPORT.

&&

$$

AEJ

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KLZK [012149]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 012149
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
349 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM TSTM WND DMG PINE BLUFF 34.21N 92.02W
02/01/2012 JEFFERSON AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES ARE DOWN IN PINE BLUFF ON 5TH AND CHERRY. A
FEW POWERLINES ARE ALSO DOWN.

&&

$$

227

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 21

WWUS20 KWNS 012142
SEL1
SPC WW 012142
ARZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-020300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 21
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN ARKANSAS
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
EXTREME SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL
900 PM CST.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF MEMPHIS TENNESSEE TO 75 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
GREENVILLE MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 20...

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER AR WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING INTO
SOUTHWEST TN AND NORTHERN MS. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF HAIL AND GUSTY/DAMAGING
WINDS IN THE STRONGER CELLS AT LEAST THROUGH SUNSET.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.

...HART

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KLZK [012143]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 012143
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
343 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM TSTM WND DMG HUMNOKE 34.54N 91.76W
02/01/2012 LONOKE AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES ARE DOWN IN THE HUMNOKE AREA.

0338 PM TSTM WND GST 3 S SLOVAK 34.61N 91.58W
02/01/2012 M86 MPH PRAIRIE AR OFFICIAL NWS OBS

MEASURED AT THE STUTTGART AIRPORT.

0338 PM HAIL 3 S SLOVAK 34.61N 91.58W
02/01/2012 E1.50 INCH PRAIRIE AR TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

227

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KLZK [012132]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 012132
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
332 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N LEOLA 34.20N 92.59W
02/01/2012 GRANT AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ALONG 46 SOUTH.

&&

$$

227

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KLZK [012119]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 012119
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
319 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0319 PM HAIL AIN 34.21N 92.34W
02/01/2012 E1.75 INCH GRANT AR PUBLIC

&&

$$

227

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KSHV [012118]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 012118
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
318 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0317 PM HAIL 2 NW MAGNOLIA 33.29N 93.26W
02/01/2012 E1.00 INCH COLUMBIA AR PUBLIC

HAIL OF DIFFERENT SIZES FALLING...MOSTLY MARBLE WITH
LARGER MIXED IN.

&&

$$

04

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KTSA [012103]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KTSA 012103
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
303 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0945 AM HAIL MCALESTER 34.93N 95.77W
02/01/2012 E1.00 INCH PITTSBURG OK BROADCAST MEDIA

MOSTLY NICKELS AND SMALLER BUT A FEW AS BIG AS A QUARTER.
RELAYED BY KOTV.

1105 AM HAIL 3 W WISTER 34.97N 94.78W
02/01/2012 E0.75 INCH LE FLORE OK EMERGENCY MNGR

DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR WISTER.

1115 AM HAIL WISTER 34.97N 94.72W
02/01/2012 E0.88 INCH LE FLORE OK EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

AEJ

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KLZK [012102]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 012102
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
302 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0301 PM HAIL REDFIELD 34.44N 92.18W
02/01/2012 E1.00 INCH JEFFERSON AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

227

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0087

ACUS11 KWNS 012059
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012058
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-012300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0087
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...AR...NRN LA...WRN TN AND NWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 012058Z - 012300Z

SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL CONTINUE OVER CNTRL AR...EXTENDING SWD INTO
NRN LA. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AR STORMS ARE APPROXIMATELY TWO
HOURS AWAY FROM THE MS RIVER AS OF 21Z....BUT A NEW WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED LATER TODAY E OF THE CURRENT WATCH.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S OVER SRN AR AND
NRN LA WHERE HEATING CONTINUES. WITH DEWPOINTS FROM 58 TO 62
F...THIS SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. DEEP LAYER FLOW AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY ALLOW SEVERE STORMS TO PERSIST INTO WRN TN
AND NWRN MS....WITH STORMS MOVING IN AN ENE DIRECTION AT
APPROXIMATELY 30 KT.

..JEWELL.. 02/01/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 32149378 33629363 34549315 35289178 35588957 35118918
34278918 33468971 32809109 32149378

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KLZK [012059]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 012059
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
259 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0250 PM TSTM WND DMG MALVERN 34.37N 92.82W
02/01/2012 HOT SPRING AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND POWERLINES ARE DOWN IN MALVERN.

0224 PM TSTM WND DMG BISMARCK 34.32N 93.17W
02/01/2012 HOT SPRING AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND POWERLINES ARE DOWN IN BISMARK.

0254 PM HAIL 2 SE MALVERN 34.35N 92.79W
02/01/2012 E1.00 INCH HOT SPRING AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

227

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KSHV [012054]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 012054
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
254 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0212 PM HAIL FOUKE 33.26N 93.89W
02/01/2012 E0.75 INCH MILLER AR BROADCAST MEDIA

DIME SIZED HAIL IN FOUKE

&&

$$

04

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KLZK [012052]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 012052
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
252 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM HAIL EAST END 34.55N 92.32W
02/01/2012 E1.75 INCH SALINE AR AMATEUR RADIO

&&

$$

227

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KLZK [012042]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 012042
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
242 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0241 PM HAIL EAST END 34.55N 92.32W
02/01/2012 E1.00 INCH SALINE AR AMATEUR RADIO

&&

$$

227

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KLZK [012022]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 012022
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
221 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 PM HAIL 5 S PARON 34.69N 92.75W
02/01/2012 E1.00 INCH SALINE AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

HAIL BETWEEN THE SIZE OF DIMES AND QUARTERS ARE COVERING
THE GROUND ON HIGHWAY 9 BETWEEN CROWS AND PARON.

&&

$$

227

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KFFC [012019]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 012019
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
318 PM EST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0925 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 SE NEW ENGLAND 34.90N 85.47W
01/23/2012 DADE GA OTHER FEDERAL

THE WATER LEVEL AT A USGS STREAM GAGE EXCEEDED FLOOD
STAGE OF 12 FEET ON THE LOOKOUT CREEK AT CREEK ROAD.
MINOR FLOODING ALSO OCCURRED ALONG THE CREEK AT SELLS
LANE IN TRENTON AND MASON ROAD NEAR RISING FAWN.

&&

$$

KFRANTZ

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KLZK [012017]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 012017
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
217 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0217 PM HAIL MALVERN 34.37N 92.82W
02/01/2012 E0.88 INCH HOT SPRING AR TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

227

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KSHV [012016]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 012016
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
216 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM HAIL DOMINO 33.25N 94.11W
02/01/2012 E1.00 INCH CASS TX BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

$$

04

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KLZK [012014]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 012014
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
214 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0214 PM HAIL GLENWOOD 34.33N 93.55W
02/01/2012 E1.00 INCH PIKE AR TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL RANGING FROM DIME SIZED TO QUARTER SIZED ARE
CURRENTLY FALLING.

&&

$$

227

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KSHV [012013]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 012013
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
213 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0155 PM HAIL 6 N QUEEN CITY 33.24N 94.15W
02/01/2012 E1.00 INCH CASS TX BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

$$

04

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KSHV [012005]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 012005
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
205 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM HAIL 4 NW DE QUEEN 34.08N 94.39W
02/01/2012 E0.75 INCH SEVIER AR BROADCAST MEDIA

DIME SIZED HAIL REPORTED NEAR DE QUEEN LAKE

&&

$$

04

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KSHV [011950]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 011950
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
150 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0136 PM HAIL 1 NW BROKEN BOW 34.04N 94.75W
02/01/2012 E0.25 INCH MCCURTAIN OK PUBLIC

PEA SIZE HAIL NORTHWEST SIDE OF BROKEN BOW

&&

$$

04

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KSHV [011950]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 011950
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
149 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0140 PM HAIL 1 N BROKEN BOW 34.04N 94.74W
02/01/2012 E1.50 INCH MCCURTAIN OK CO-OP OBSERVER

CO OP OBSERVER REPORTS HAIL OF ALL SIZES WITH THE LARGEST
BEING A LITTLE SMALLER THAN A GOLF BALL

&&

$$

04

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011948
SWODY1
SPC AC 011946

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO WRN
TN...

HAVE OPTED TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK...NAMELY TO REDUCE THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NCNTRL TX WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS VEERED AND TO EXPAND THE
SEVERE THREAT DOWNSTREAM INTO WRN TN/NWRN MS.

AGITATED MID LEVEL CONVECTION THAT WAS OBSERVED OVER CNTRL/SERN OK
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS NOW SHIFTED INTO WRN AR/NERN TX AND IS
NOW ROOTING INTO BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT
CURRENTLY REPRESENTED WELL BY SEVERE WATCH #20. GIVEN THE CURRENT
SPEED/MOVEMENT OF AFOREMENTIONED S/W IT WOULD SEEM LIKELY THAT
ONGOING TSTMS WILL EASILY SPREAD ACROSS THE MS DELTA REGION INTO WRN
TN/NWRN MS WHERE AN AXIS OF STEEPER SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES HAS
DEVELOPED. FARTHER SW...ACROSS PORTIONS OF NCNTRL TX WHERE FLOW HAS
VEERED WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHT DRYING WILL PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

..DARROW.. 02/01/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST WED FEB 01 2012/

...ARKLATEX REGION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED 60-70 KT MID LEVEL JET
WILL TRACK QUICKLY EASTWARD AND AFFECT THE ARKLATEX REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 12Z RAOBS AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND BROKEN SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND
1500 J/KG AND ONLY MINIMAL CAP.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
OK ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM
OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY MID AFTERNOON AS THEY SPREAD INTO AR.
OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THIS ACTIVITY
OVER NORTHEAST TX...MOVING INTO NORTHERN LA BY EVENING. A MIXED
MODE OF CELLULAR AND LINEAR STORM STRUCTURES ARE LIKELY...WITH
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS. LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE THE TORNADO THREAT.
HOWEVER...PARAMETERS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR LARGE/VERY LARGE HAIL.
REFER TO MCD NUMBER 0084 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0086

ACUS11 KWNS 011937
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011936
LAZ000-TXZ000-012100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0086
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN TX AND SWRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 011936Z - 012100Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SERN TX INTO SWRN LA
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS BREAKS IN CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED SURFACE
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR
70...SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE INDICATED A LARGE...AGITATED CU FIELD ACROSS SERN TX INTO
SWRN LA WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR GLS TO ACP. NORTH OF
THIS LINE OF STORMS...SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATED OTHER ACTIVITY
TRYING TO DEVELOP IN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. GIVEN LACKLUSTER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES /NEAR 6 C/KM PER LATEST MESOANALYSIS/ AND THAT THE
STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...UPDRAFT
STRENGTH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
GROWTH AND/OR STRONG WINDS. THEREFORE...A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

..LEITMAN.. 02/01/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 32009353 31869488 30949532 29669523 29189486 29589299
29719236 30369179 31619198 32029244 32009353

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KSHV [011926]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 011926
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
126 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0126 PM HAIL GILLHAM 34.17N 94.31W
02/01/2012 E0.75 INCH SEVIER AR PUBLIC

PENNY TO DIME SIZE HAIL

&&

$$

04

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0085

ACUS11 KWNS 011923
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011922
ARZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-012115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0085
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FROM CNTRL AR SWWD INTO THE ARKLATEX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 20...

VALID 011922Z - 012115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 20
CONTINUES.

SEVERE HAIL THREAT IS INCREASING OVER THE REGION...WITH A DECIDED
UPSWING IN THE INTENSITY OF A LEADING STORM OVER W CNTRL AR. RADAR
INDICATES SEVERE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THIS STORM...AND GIVEN
PARAMETERS IN PLACE INCLUDING HODOGRAPH LENGTH AS WELL AS STORM
STRUCTURE...THIS STORM MAY BE PRODUCING LARGE AMOUNTS OF HAIL IN
ADDITION TO LARGE SIZES. AT THE CURRENT SPEED...THESE HAIL STORMS
WILL AFFECT THE LITTLE ROCK AREA BETWEEN 230-300 PM LOCAL TIME.

OTHER STORMS WERE STRENGTHENING OVER SWRN AR...WITH OTHER CELLS NOW
DEVELOPING OVER NERN TX. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...BUT DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR. WEAK LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE THE RISK OF TORNADOES.

..JEWELL.. 02/01/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON 33069110 32029512 34819514 35819110 33069110

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KLZK [011908]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 011908
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
107 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0106 PM HAIL ROVER 34.95N 93.40W
02/01/2012 E1.00 INCH YELL AR TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

61

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KTSA [011903]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 011903
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
103 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0945 AM HAIL MCALESTER 34.93N 95.77W
02/01/2012 E1.00 INCH PITTSBURG OK BROADCAST MEDIA

MOSTLY NICKELS AND SMALLER BUT A FEW AS BIG AS A QUARTER.
RELAYED BY KOTV.

&&

$$

KAH

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KTSA [011853]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 011853
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1253 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1115 AM HAIL WISTER 34.97N 94.72W
02/01/2012 E0.88 INCH LE FLORE OK EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

KAH

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 20

WWUS20 KWNS 011833
SEL0
SPC WW 011833
ARZ000-LAZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-020200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 20
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1235 PM UNTIL
800 PM CST.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF DE QUEEN ARKANSAS TO 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF PINE BLUFF
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST OK WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO AR...WHILE NEW STORMS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST TX. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE CAPE VALUES WILL PROMOTE THE RISK OF A FEW INTENSE CELLS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.

...HART

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 011725
SWODY2
SPC AC 011723

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CST WED FEB 01 2012

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...OK/TX...

SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE BASE
OF TRANSITORY WRN U.S. TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS STRONG H5 FLOW...ON THE ORDER OF 60-70KT...WILL OVERSPREAD
NM/TX SOUTH PLAINS BY 02/12Z WITH MAIN CORE OF JET EXPECTED TO
EXTEND INTO WRN OK BY SUNSET. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...LLJ
WILL FOCUS OVER NWRN TX INTO WRN OK...INCREASING MARKEDLY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS TO VALUES OF 50-60KT. NET RESULT WILL BE FOR NWD
EVOLVING WARM FRONT TO REPOSITION ITSELF NEAR THE RED RIVER...WWD TO
A WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS BY PEAK HEATING. THIS WILL
SERVE AS THE PRIMARY CORRIDOR FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 50S SFC DEW POINTS WILL SURGE NWWD AS
WARM FRONT RETURNS INTO SRN OK/NWRN TX...WITH NEAR 60 DEW POINTS
POSSIBLY RETURNING TO REGIONS WELL EAST OF DRYLINE PRIOR TO TSTM
ACTIVITY. 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR SUGGESTS A NARROW ZONE OF STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO
PORTIONS OF NWRN TX. IF LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS THE NAM SUGGESTS
THEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE REDUCED AND SFC PARCELS WILL
REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...WHICH APPEAR TO BE NEAR 70.
GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE FORCING/SHEAR EXPECTED IT WOULD SEEM
REASONABLE TO EXPECT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS TO INITIATE NEAR/JUST SOUTH
OF THE WARM FRONT ALONG THE ADVANCING DRYLINE AROUND 22-00Z. WITH
TIME WARM ADVECTION WILL ALSO DRIVE ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN/CNTRL OK. ALTHOUGH
SFC DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S
WITHIN THE INITIATING ZONE...RELATIVELY LOW TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS
SUGGEST CLOUD BASES WILL BE REASONABLY LOW AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EVOLVE. HOWEVER...THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL WITH UPWARD EVOLVING
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF WARM FRONT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF WRN/CNTRL OK BY 03/12Z.

..DARROW.. 02/01/2012

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KTSA [011710]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 011710
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1110 AM CST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1105 AM HAIL 3 W WISTER 34.97N 94.78W
02/01/2012 E0.75 INCH LE FLORE OK EMERGENCY MNGR

DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR WISTER.

&&

$$

KAH

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011624
SWODY1
SPC AC 011623

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1023 AM CST WED FEB 01 2012

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
TX...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR...AND NORTHERN LA...

...ARKLATEX REGION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED 60-70 KT MID LEVEL JET
WILL TRACK QUICKLY EASTWARD AND AFFECT THE ARKLATEX REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 12Z RAOBS AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND BROKEN SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND
1500 J/KG AND ONLY MINIMAL CAP.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
OK ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM
OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY MID AFTERNOON AS THEY SPREAD INTO AR.
OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THIS ACTIVITY
OVER NORTHEAST TX...MOVING INTO NORTHERN LA BY EVENING. A MIXED
MODE OF CELLULAR AND LINEAR STORM STRUCTURES ARE LIKELY...WITH
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS. LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE THE TORNADO THREAT.
HOWEVER...PARAMETERS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR LARGE/VERY LARGE HAIL.
REFER TO MCD NUMBER 0084 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

..HART/LEITMAN.. 02/01/2012

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0084

ACUS11 KWNS 011618
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011618
ARZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-011815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0084
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1018 AM CST WED FEB 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...AR...NERN TX...NRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 011618Z - 011815Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. A SLIGHT RISK
WILL BE INTRODUCED FOR MUCH OF AR AND THE ARKLATEX REGION...AND A
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN A FEW HOURS.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK LOW NEAR THE METROPLEX...ALONG A
BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD INTO WRN AR. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
AREAS OF CLEARING WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S F.

VERY COOL AIR IS CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING THE AREA ALOFT...RESULTING
IN STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND LITTLE CAPPING POTENTIAL...SUGGESTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 70S F WILL TOTALLY REMOVE INHIBITION.

AS ONGOING STORMS APPROACH THE DESTABILIZING INSTABILITY AXIS...THEY
MAY INTENSIFY. OTHER VIGOROUS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE MAY NOT BE
WIDESPREAD. FAVORABLY LONG HODOGRAPHS...AMPLE MOISTURE AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES SHOULD YIELD A LOT OF HAIL...SOME POSSIBLY VERY LARGE.

..JEWELL.. 02/01/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 32869621 33369607 34619535 35269507 36179449 36189339
35389164 34809117 33989104 33109127 32209196 31919345
31929487 32059571 32419607 32869621

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KMFR [011518]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 011518
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
718 AM PST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN NE BROOKINGS 42.06N 124.29W
02/01/2012 M1.05 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL

&&

$$

BPN

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KOUN [011443]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 011443
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
843 AM CST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0826 AM HAIL 5 NNW ADA 34.84N 96.69W
02/01/2012 E1.00 INCH PONTOTOC OK EMERGENCY MNGR

REPORTED BY PONTOTOC COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT

&&

$$

FM

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KPAH [011433]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KPAH 011433
LSRPAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
833 AM CST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1118 PM TORNADO 5 SSW ENFIELD 38.03N 88.37W
01/22/2012 WHITE IL NWS STORM SURVEY

EF2 TORNADO FROM 5 MILES SSW OF ENFILED TO 2.5 MILES NNE
OF CENTERVILLE. STORM SURVEY BY NWS. SEE PNSPAH FOR
DETAILS.

1142 PM TORNADO 3 SSW ALBION 38.34N 88.08W
01/22/2012 EDWARDS IL NWS STORM SURVEY

EF1 TORNADO FROM 3.75 MILES SSW OF ALBION TO 4.8 MILES
ESE OF ALBION. STORM SURVEY BY NWS/PARTNERS. SEE PNSPAH
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

&&

$$

PATS

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KLCH [011351]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 011351
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
751 AM CST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 AM FLOOD VILLE PLATTE 30.69N 92.28W
02/01/2012 EVANGELINE LA EMERGENCY MNGR

EVANGELINE PARISH EM REPORTS STREET FLOODING OF THE WEST
BOUND LANE OF LA SALLE ST WHICH IS HWY 167.

&&

$$

JNUNN

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KCHS [011348]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 011348
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
847 AM EST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 AM DENSE FOG 3 SSE CLAXTON 32.12N 81.88W
02/01/2012 E0.25 MILE EVANS GA 911 CALL CENTER

3 TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS WERE CONFIRMED IN THE CLAXTON AREA
NEAR HIGHWAY 129 SOUTH AND MITTIE STRICKLAND ROAD. NO
INJURIES REPORTED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200007

$$

BDC

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011259
SWODY1
SPC AC 011257

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 AM CST WED FEB 01 2012

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST TODAY...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD OVER OK/N TX TODAY...REACHING
AR THIS EVENING AND THE APPALACHIANS EARLY THURSDAY AS AN UPSTREAM
TROUGH AMPLIFIES TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. ONLY A WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED...AS A DIFFUSE SURFACE
WAVE MIGRATES EWD ALONG A SLOW-MOVING FRONT FROM AR TODAY TO VA/NC
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F HAVE SPREAD AS FAR N AS EXTREME
NE TX AND SRN AR...WITH MID-UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NW GULF COAST.
MEANWHILE...A SMALL CLUSTER OF ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
OVER NE TX...INDICATIVE OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MIDLEVEL
TROUGH. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE GRADUALLY BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS AR...WHERE CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION MAY RESULT IN MLCAPE
NEAR 1000 J/KG AND MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. DEEP-LAYER WINDS
AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE WITH APPROACH OF THE
MID-UPPER TROUGH...WITH STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF SPLITTING
SUPERCELLS. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT
LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH MOVES E OF THE INSTABILITY
AXIS BY EARLY TONIGHT. THERE ARE STILL SOME CONCERNS REGARDING THE
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND STORM COVERAGE...THUS WILL MAINTAIN LOW
HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES.

FARTHER S...AN ONGOING BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EWD ACROSS SRN MS/SW AL TODAY...WITH ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
SWD AND WWD ACROSS SRN LA AND SE TX AS THE LOW LEVELS
WARM/DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. INSTABILITY WEAKENS WITH EWD
EXTENT AND THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE CONFINED
TO THIS MORNING ACROSS SE MS. LATER AND FARTHER W...NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT COULD ALSO POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING
GUSTS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK BY AFTERNOON ACROSS LA/SE
TX...THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS.

..THOMPSON/GARNER.. 02/01/2012

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KJAN [011036]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 011036
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
436 AM CST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0256 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 S BUDE 31.42N 90.85W
02/01/2012 FRANKLIN MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 98 SOUTH OF BUDE

&&

$$

ALLEN

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 010948
SWOD48
SPC AC 010948

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CST WED FEB 01 2012

VALID 041200Z - 091200Z

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MOVE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE CNTRL
STATES ON SATURDAY/DAY 4 WITH A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD ACROSS THE
MID-MS VALLEY. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE MODEL FORECASTS SHOW
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F AS FAR NORTH AS TN. A SEVERE THREAT MAY
DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS
THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES AND TN VALLEY. ON SUNDAY/DAY 5...THE
MODELS MOVE THE FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS
DISAGREE ON THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S.
THIS MAKES UNCERTAINTY HIGH BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE ECNTRL STATES
SUGGESTING NLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
RETURNING NWD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE DAY 4 TO 8
PERIOD...PREDICTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT AN
ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE CONUS.

..BROYLES.. 02/01/2012

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 010819
SWODY3
SPC AC 010818

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CST WED FEB 01 2012

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY AS A 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE ERN SIDE OF
THE LOW INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY FROM NORTH
TX NWD INTO SRN KS. A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT COULD EXIST WITH STORMS
THAT HAVE ACCESS TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. DURING THE DAY...THE
MODELS MOVE THE CONVECTION EWD ACROSS KS AND INTO ECNTRL OK WITH A
SWD EXPANSION INTO CNTRL AND EAST TX. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THIS SCENARIO BUT THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES
INCLUDE TIMING THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AND GAGING HOW FAR
NORTH STRONG STORMS WILL DEVELOP.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FRIDAY AFTERNOON SUGGEST THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS NORTHEAST TX WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE
FORECAST IN THE 1200 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 50
KT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT DALLAS CONVECT USING SFC-BASED PARCELS
SUGGESTING A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY EXIST. AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
THREAT MAY ALSO BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY IF SUPERCELLS CAN ORGANIZE.
THE HAIL THREAT COULD EXTEND NNWWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS INTO
NCNTRL OK AND SRN KS WHERE COLD AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST IN THE CORE OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. HOWEVER...THE HAIL THREAT IN THE CNTRL PLAINS
SHOULD BE KEPT MARGINAL DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY AND ONGOING
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT IN AREAS SOUTH OF DALLAS
WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO THE LIMITED.

..BROYLES.. 02/01/2012

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KLCH [010739]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 010739
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
138 AM CST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0111 AM TSTM WND DMG BEAVER 30.80N 92.57W
02/01/2012 EVANGELINE LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES REPORTED DOWN.

&&

$$

K. KUYPER

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0083

ACUS11 KWNS 010706
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010706
MSZ000-LAZ000-010900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0083
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 AM CST WED FEB 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN LA TO SWRN MS

CONCERNING...01Z OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 010706Z - 010900Z

A MARGINAL RISK FOR A BRIEF TORNADO AND DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS WITHIN
A CLUSTER OF TSTMS EXTENDING NEWD FROM SWRN LA. A WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

SW TO NE BAND OF TSTMS FROM CALCASIEU TO AVOYELLES PARISH LA APPEARS
LIKELY TO PERSIST WITHIN AN AXIS OF CONFLUENCE AMIDST A MODEST
LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z WRF-NSSL/NMM
GUIDANCE. EMBEDDED CELL IN ALLEN/EVANGELINE COUNTIES HAS SHOWN
EVIDENCE OF LOW-LEVEL ROTATION OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR. ALTHOUGH
LOW-LEVEL S/SWLYS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AND NOT EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN...0-1 KM SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2 APPEARS TO BE ADEQUATE FOR
UPDRAFT ROTATION. GIVEN PRESENCE OF A RICH/MOIST THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS/TEMPERATURE IN THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S...A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF
TORNADO MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..GRAMS.. 02/01/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 30179359 30679293 31319180 31749103 31819069 31629043
31329046 30689107 29809299 29779366 30179359

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 010654
SWODY2
SPC AC 010653

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CST WED FEB 01 2012

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...SRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
AS THE EXIT REGION OF A 65 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE SRN
PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A WELL-DEVELOPED 40 TO 55 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING
ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND SW OK
SWD INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES DUE TO
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. WEAKER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
SWD ACROSS WCNTRL TX SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MORE ISOLATED
IN THE SAN ANGELO AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR ABILENE THURSDAY EVENING SHOW THE BEST
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH MLCAPE OF 1200 O 1500 J/KG...40
TO 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 C/KM.
THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
SUPERCELLS. IF THE ACTIVITY CAN BECOME SFC-BASED...THEN A WIND
DAMAGE THREAT COULD ALSO BE PRESENT DURING THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. FURTHER TO THE NORTH INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND SW
OK...THE PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE FOR HAIL DUE TO THE ELEVATED
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION.

AT THIS POINT...THE MODELS HAVE COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT BUT THERE
ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS STORMS FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST AND THE GFS IS FURTHER EAST. HAVE TAKEN A COMPROMISED
SOLUTION BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
THE NAM. THIS BRINGS THE SLIGHT RISK FURTHER NORTHWEST OF THE
PREVIOUS OUTLOOK AND EXTENDS THE SLIGHT SWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO WHERE
SFC DEWPOINTS MAY APPROACH 60 F.

..BROYLES.. 02/01/2012

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 010534
SWODY1
SPC AC 010532

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CST TUE JAN 31 2012

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE OF THE
NORTHEAST...AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING
OFFSHORE AS WELL. UPPER RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED...AS PHASING UPPER TROUGHS OVER THE CNTRL STATES
PROGRESS EWD. A STRONGER SRN STREAM WAVE OVER WRN TX WILL QUICKLY
EJECT EWD INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THIS OCCURS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION WILL
GRADUALLY SAG SEWD. FARTHER WEST...A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST WILL SHIFT ONSHORE...BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVERNIGHT.

...NERN TX INTO WRN TN/NRN MS...
A WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS CONTRIBUTING TO LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY /AS OF 05Z/...WITH DEW POINTS GRADUALLY
INCREASING WITH TIME. HOWEVER...BY 12Z...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO VEER TO WSWLY...KEEPING RICHER MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE GULF AS
WELL AS SHUNTED EWD WHERE A LACK OF UPPER FORCING EXISTS.

NONETHELESS...ACROSS THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...THE SUSTENANCE OF
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S DEW POINTS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WHERE INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
OCCUR AS A LOWER LATITUDE UPPER WAVE TRAVERSES TX THEN INTO THE
SOUTHEAST THEREAFTER. ALTHOUGH SHALLOW CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR POCKETS OF CLEARING AND GREATER SURFACE HEATING
ACROSS A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NERN TX INTO WRN TN AND FAR NRN MS.
HERE...SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN WEAK LOW
LEVEL WINDS AND MUDDLED/WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE...A MORE ROBUST
DMGG WIND THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ADDITIONALLY...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /SAMPLED PER UPSTREAM 00Z
RAOBS/ ARE ADVECTING EWD...AND MAY DELAY SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT.
REGARDLESS...STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT HAIL FORMATION...PARTICULARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT ARRIVES. THIS THREAT
SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER DARK WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...AND AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
WAVE.

..HURLBUT/CORFIDI.. 02/01/2012

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