SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011936
LAZ000-TXZ000-012100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0086
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN TX AND SWRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 011936Z - 012100Z
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SERN TX INTO SWRN LA
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS BREAKS IN CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED SURFACE
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR
70...SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE INDICATED A LARGE...AGITATED CU FIELD ACROSS SERN TX INTO
SWRN LA WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR GLS TO ACP. NORTH OF
THIS LINE OF STORMS...SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATED OTHER ACTIVITY
TRYING TO DEVELOP IN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. GIVEN LACKLUSTER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES /NEAR 6 C/KM PER LATEST MESOANALYSIS/ AND THAT THE
STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...UPDRAFT
STRENGTH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
GROWTH AND/OR STRONG WINDS. THEREFORE...A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..LEITMAN.. 02/01/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 32009353 31869488 30949532 29669523 29189486 29589299
29719236 30369179 31619198 32029244 32009353
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