SWODY1
SPC AC 011946
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012
VALID 012000Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO WRN
TN...
HAVE OPTED TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK...NAMELY TO REDUCE THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NCNTRL TX WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS VEERED AND TO EXPAND THE
SEVERE THREAT DOWNSTREAM INTO WRN TN/NWRN MS.
AGITATED MID LEVEL CONVECTION THAT WAS OBSERVED OVER CNTRL/SERN OK
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS NOW SHIFTED INTO WRN AR/NERN TX AND IS
NOW ROOTING INTO BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT
CURRENTLY REPRESENTED WELL BY SEVERE WATCH #20. GIVEN THE CURRENT
SPEED/MOVEMENT OF AFOREMENTIONED S/W IT WOULD SEEM LIKELY THAT
ONGOING TSTMS WILL EASILY SPREAD ACROSS THE MS DELTA REGION INTO WRN
TN/NWRN MS WHERE AN AXIS OF STEEPER SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES HAS
DEVELOPED. FARTHER SW...ACROSS PORTIONS OF NCNTRL TX WHERE FLOW HAS
VEERED WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHT DRYING WILL PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.
..DARROW.. 02/01/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST WED FEB 01 2012/
...ARKLATEX REGION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED 60-70 KT MID LEVEL JET
WILL TRACK QUICKLY EASTWARD AND AFFECT THE ARKLATEX REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 12Z RAOBS AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND BROKEN SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND
1500 J/KG AND ONLY MINIMAL CAP.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
OK ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM
OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY MID AFTERNOON AS THEY SPREAD INTO AR.
OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THIS ACTIVITY
OVER NORTHEAST TX...MOVING INTO NORTHERN LA BY EVENING. A MIXED
MODE OF CELLULAR AND LINEAR STORM STRUCTURES ARE LIKELY...WITH
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS. LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE THE TORNADO THREAT.
HOWEVER...PARAMETERS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR LARGE/VERY LARGE HAIL.
REFER TO MCD NUMBER 0084 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
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