NWUS52 KJAX 152239
LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
639 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0552 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 WSW ARLINGTON 30.31N 81.69W
08/15/2013 DUVAL FL BROADCAST MEDIA
BROADCAST MEDIA AND EMA REPORTED TREE DOWN ON NELSON
STREET IN THE RIVERSIDE AREA.
0605 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 SSE ARLINGTON 30.27N 81.56W
08/15/2013 DUVAL FL EMERGENCY MNGR
WIRES WERE REPORTED DOWN IN THE SOUTHSIDE AREA.
0625 PM HEAVY RAIN ST. SIMONS 31.18N 81.38W
08/15/2013 M2.55 INCH GLYNN GA BROADCAST MEDIA
PUBLIC REPORT OF 2.55 INCHES AT ST SIMONS ISLAND. RELAYED
THROUGH LOCAL MEDIA.
&&
$$
ARS
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Thursday, August 15, 2013
KICT [152237]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KICT 152237
LSRICT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
537 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0530 PM HAIL 7 NE MARQUETTE 38.63N 97.74W
08/15/2013 E1.75 INCH SALINE KS AMATEUR RADIO
LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL IN THE TOWN
OF FALUN.
&&
$$
CDJ
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LSRICT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
537 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0530 PM HAIL 7 NE MARQUETTE 38.63N 97.74W
08/15/2013 E1.75 INCH SALINE KS AMATEUR RADIO
LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL IN THE TOWN
OF FALUN.
&&
$$
CDJ
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KGLD [152236]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KGLD 152236
LSRGLD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
436 PM MDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0420 PM HAIL 8 W OBERLIN 39.82N 100.68W
08/15/2013 E1.00 INCH DECATUR KS TRAINED SPOTTER
NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND
&&
$$
JJM
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LSRGLD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
436 PM MDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0420 PM HAIL 8 W OBERLIN 39.82N 100.68W
08/15/2013 E1.00 INCH DECATUR KS TRAINED SPOTTER
NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND
&&
$$
JJM
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KICT [152230]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KICT 152230
LSRICT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
530 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0530 PM HAIL 6 NE MARQUETTE 38.62N 97.76W
08/15/2013 E1.00 INCH SALINE KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
CDJ
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LSRICT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
530 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0530 PM HAIL 6 NE MARQUETTE 38.62N 97.76W
08/15/2013 E1.00 INCH SALINE KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
CDJ
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KTOP [152225]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KTOP 152225
LSRTOP
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
525 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0524 PM FLASH FLOOD JUNCTION CITY 39.03N 96.83W
08/15/2013 GEARY KS EMERGENCY MNGR
SEVERAL WATER RESCUES OCCURRING IN THE CITY.
&&
$$
BYRNE
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LSRTOP
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
525 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0524 PM FLASH FLOOD JUNCTION CITY 39.03N 96.83W
08/15/2013 GEARY KS EMERGENCY MNGR
SEVERAL WATER RESCUES OCCURRING IN THE CITY.
&&
$$
BYRNE
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KICT [152225]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KICT 152225
LSRICT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
524 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0524 PM HAIL 3 N BROOKVILLE 38.82N 97.86W
08/15/2013 E1.00 INCH SALINE KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
CDJ
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LSRICT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
524 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0524 PM HAIL 3 N BROOKVILLE 38.82N 97.86W
08/15/2013 E1.00 INCH SALINE KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
CDJ
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1724
ACUS11 KWNS 152218
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152217
TXZ000-152345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1724
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0517 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 152217Z - 152345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
ANOTHER FEW HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS CNTRL TX. STRONG
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
LACK OF MORE ORGANIZED/LONGER DURATION THREAT WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED
FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TX HAVE CONGEALED INTO A
MULTICELL CLUSTER OVER THE LAST HOUR. WHILE THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A LONG LIVED OR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THREAT...ISOLATED STRONG WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SBCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 20-30 KT
SHOULD HELP TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...AS STORMS PROGRESS TO THE E/SE...LACK OF UPPER FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND WEAKENING SHEAR WITH SWD EXTENT SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER
ORGANIZATION. PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.75 INCHES /PER 22Z MESOANALYSIS
AND MORNING REGIONAL RAOBS/ COULD AID IN WATER LOADING AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS IN STRONGEST CELLS. WEAK MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IN ADDITION TO LIMITING UPDRAFT
LONGEVITY/STRENGTH...WILL ALSO LIMIT LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. MARGINAL
NATURE OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND SHORT DURATION OF ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH...BUT TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
..LEITMAN/MEAD.. 08/15/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 29839921 29629833 30099766 30899740 31609742 32309744
32919769 33189836 33029903 31399992 30490042 30050017
29839921
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152217
TXZ000-152345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1724
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0517 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 152217Z - 152345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
ANOTHER FEW HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS CNTRL TX. STRONG
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
LACK OF MORE ORGANIZED/LONGER DURATION THREAT WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED
FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TX HAVE CONGEALED INTO A
MULTICELL CLUSTER OVER THE LAST HOUR. WHILE THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A LONG LIVED OR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THREAT...ISOLATED STRONG WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SBCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 20-30 KT
SHOULD HELP TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...AS STORMS PROGRESS TO THE E/SE...LACK OF UPPER FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND WEAKENING SHEAR WITH SWD EXTENT SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER
ORGANIZATION. PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.75 INCHES /PER 22Z MESOANALYSIS
AND MORNING REGIONAL RAOBS/ COULD AID IN WATER LOADING AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS IN STRONGEST CELLS. WEAK MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IN ADDITION TO LIMITING UPDRAFT
LONGEVITY/STRENGTH...WILL ALSO LIMIT LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. MARGINAL
NATURE OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND SHORT DURATION OF ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH...BUT TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
..LEITMAN/MEAD.. 08/15/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 29839921 29629833 30099766 30899740 31609742 32309744
32919769 33189836 33029903 31399992 30490042 30050017
29839921
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KTOP [152210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KTOP 152210
LSRTOP
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
510 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0502 PM TSTM WND GST 4 SE JUNCTION CITY 38.99N 96.78W
08/15/2013 E60 MPH GEARY KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
BYRNE
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LSRTOP
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
510 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0502 PM TSTM WND GST 4 SE JUNCTION CITY 38.99N 96.78W
08/15/2013 E60 MPH GEARY KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
BYRNE
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KTOP [152208]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KTOP 152208
LSRTOP
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
508 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0500 PM TSTM WND DMG ABILENE 38.92N 97.21W
08/15/2013 DICKINSON KS EMERGENCY MNGR
POWER LINES AND TREE BRANCHES DOWN THROUGHOUT ABILENE.
&&
$$
GARGAN
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LSRTOP
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
508 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0500 PM TSTM WND DMG ABILENE 38.92N 97.21W
08/15/2013 DICKINSON KS EMERGENCY MNGR
POWER LINES AND TREE BRANCHES DOWN THROUGHOUT ABILENE.
&&
$$
GARGAN
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KTOP [152208]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KTOP 152208
LSRTOP
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
508 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0505 PM HEAVY RAIN MILFORD 39.17N 96.91W
08/15/2013 M4.50 INCH GEARY KS PUBLIC
REPORT FROM SOCIAL MEDIA.
&&
$$
HENNECKE
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LSRTOP
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
508 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0505 PM HEAVY RAIN MILFORD 39.17N 96.91W
08/15/2013 M4.50 INCH GEARY KS PUBLIC
REPORT FROM SOCIAL MEDIA.
&&
$$
HENNECKE
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KJAX [152208]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KJAX 152208
LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
608 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0544 PM TSTM WND GST 5 NNW MANDARIN 30.22N 81.68W
08/15/2013 M42 MPH DUVAL FL ASOS
THE JACKSONVILLE NAVAL AIR STATION ASOS MEASURED A GUST
TO 42 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
$$
ARS
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LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
608 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0544 PM TSTM WND GST 5 NNW MANDARIN 30.22N 81.68W
08/15/2013 M42 MPH DUVAL FL ASOS
THE JACKSONVILLE NAVAL AIR STATION ASOS MEASURED A GUST
TO 42 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
$$
ARS
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KICT [152204]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KICT 152204
LSRICT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
504 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0504 PM HAIL 5 SE BROOKVILLE 38.72N 97.80W
08/15/2013 E1.00 INCH SALINE KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
CDJ
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LSRICT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
504 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0504 PM HAIL 5 SE BROOKVILLE 38.72N 97.80W
08/15/2013 E1.00 INCH SALINE KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
CDJ
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KTOP [152202]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KTOP 152202
LSRTOP
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
502 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0501 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SE ABILENE 38.87N 97.15W
08/15/2013 DICKINSON KS TRAINED SPOTTER
3 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMB BLOWN DOWN.
&&
$$
BYRNE
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LSRTOP
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
502 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0501 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SE ABILENE 38.87N 97.15W
08/15/2013 DICKINSON KS TRAINED SPOTTER
3 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMB BLOWN DOWN.
&&
$$
BYRNE
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KICT [152159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KICT 152159
LSRICT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
459 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0458 PM HAIL 5 N BROOKVILLE 38.85N 97.86W
08/15/2013 E1.50 INCH SALINE KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
CDJ
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LSRICT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
459 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0458 PM HAIL 5 N BROOKVILLE 38.85N 97.86W
08/15/2013 E1.50 INCH SALINE KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
CDJ
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KTOP [152158]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KTOP 152158
LSRTOP
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
458 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0458 PM TSTM WND GST JUNCTION CITY 39.03N 96.83W
08/15/2013 E60 MPH GEARY KS PUBLIC
&&
$$
BYRNE
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LSRTOP
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
458 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0458 PM TSTM WND GST JUNCTION CITY 39.03N 96.83W
08/15/2013 E60 MPH GEARY KS PUBLIC
&&
$$
BYRNE
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
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KICT [152154]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KICT 152154
LSRICT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
454 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0454 PM HAIL 5 N BROOKVILLE 38.85N 97.86W
08/15/2013 E1.75 INCH SALINE KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
CDJ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
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LSRICT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
454 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0454 PM HAIL 5 N BROOKVILLE 38.85N 97.86W
08/15/2013 E1.75 INCH SALINE KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
CDJ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
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KOUN [152154]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KOUN 152154
LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
454 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0452 PM TSTM WND GST 1 N CYRIL 34.91N 98.20W
08/15/2013 E60 MPH CADDO OK AMATEUR RADIO
&&
$$
FM
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
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LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
454 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0452 PM TSTM WND GST 1 N CYRIL 34.91N 98.20W
08/15/2013 E60 MPH CADDO OK AMATEUR RADIO
&&
$$
FM
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
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KTOP [152153]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KTOP 152153
LSRTOP
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
453 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0448 PM TSTM WND GST 6 ESE ABILENE 38.90N 97.11W
08/15/2013 E55 MPH DICKINSON KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
GARGAN
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
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LSRTOP
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
453 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0448 PM TSTM WND GST 6 ESE ABILENE 38.90N 97.11W
08/15/2013 E55 MPH DICKINSON KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
GARGAN
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
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KICT [152152]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KICT 152152
LSRICT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
452 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0452 PM HAIL 2 SE WESTFALL 38.91N 97.97W
08/15/2013 E0.75 INCH LINCOLN KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
CDJ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
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LSRICT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
452 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0452 PM HAIL 2 SE WESTFALL 38.91N 97.97W
08/15/2013 E0.75 INCH LINCOLN KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
CDJ
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KICT [152146]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KICT 152146
LSRICT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
446 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0446 PM HAIL 2 SE GLENDALE 38.88N 97.84W
08/15/2013 E0.88 INCH SALINE KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
CDJ
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LSRICT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
446 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0446 PM HAIL 2 SE GLENDALE 38.88N 97.84W
08/15/2013 E0.88 INCH SALINE KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
CDJ
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
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KICT [152137]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KICT 152137
LSRICT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
437 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0435 PM HAIL 1 S GLENDALE 38.89N 97.87W
08/15/2013 E1.00 INCH SALINE KS TRAINED SPOTTER
QUARTER TO DIME SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND NEAR I-70
GLENDALE EXIT.
&&
$$
CDJ
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LSRICT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
437 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0435 PM HAIL 1 S GLENDALE 38.89N 97.87W
08/15/2013 E1.00 INCH SALINE KS TRAINED SPOTTER
QUARTER TO DIME SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND NEAR I-70
GLENDALE EXIT.
&&
$$
CDJ
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KOUN [152135]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KOUN 152135
LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
435 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0416 PM HAIL COGAR 35.33N 98.13W
08/15/2013 E1.00 INCH CADDO OK PUBLIC
&&
$$
FM
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LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
435 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0416 PM HAIL COGAR 35.33N 98.13W
08/15/2013 E1.00 INCH CADDO OK PUBLIC
&&
$$
FM
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KJAX [152134]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS52 KJAX 152134
LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
534 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0528 PM TSTM WND GST JACKSONVILLE INTL ARPT 30.48N 81.71W
08/15/2013 M51.00 MPH DUVAL FL ASOS
THE JACKSONVILLE AIRPORT ASOS MEASURED A GUST TO 51 MPH.
&&
CORRECTED TIME.
$$
ARS
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LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
534 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0528 PM TSTM WND GST JACKSONVILLE INTL ARPT 30.48N 81.71W
08/15/2013 M51.00 MPH DUVAL FL ASOS
THE JACKSONVILLE AIRPORT ASOS MEASURED A GUST TO 51 MPH.
&&
CORRECTED TIME.
$$
ARS
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KICT [152133]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KICT 152133
LSRICT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
433 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0432 PM HAIL 1 S GLENDALE 38.88N 97.87W
08/15/2013 M0.75 INCH SALINE KS STORM CHASER
&&
$$
MWM
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LSRICT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
433 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0432 PM HAIL 1 S GLENDALE 38.88N 97.87W
08/15/2013 M0.75 INCH SALINE KS STORM CHASER
&&
$$
MWM
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
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KJAX [152133]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KJAX 152133
LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
532 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0529 PM TSTM WND GST JACKSONVILLE INTL ARPT 30.48N 81.71W
08/15/2013 M51 MPH DUVAL FL ASOS
THE JACKSONVILLE AIRPORT ASOS MEASURED A GUST TO 51 MPH.
&&
$$
ARS
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LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
532 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0529 PM TSTM WND GST JACKSONVILLE INTL ARPT 30.48N 81.71W
08/15/2013 M51 MPH DUVAL FL ASOS
THE JACKSONVILLE AIRPORT ASOS MEASURED A GUST TO 51 MPH.
&&
$$
ARS
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KTOP [152122]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KTOP 152122
LSRTOP
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
422 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0415 PM HAIL WELLS 39.14N 97.55W
08/15/2013 E1.25 INCH OTTAWA KS PUBLIC
&&
$$
BYRNE
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LSRTOP
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
422 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0415 PM HAIL WELLS 39.14N 97.55W
08/15/2013 E1.25 INCH OTTAWA KS PUBLIC
&&
$$
BYRNE
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KTOP [152118]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KTOP 152118
LSRTOP
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
418 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0415 PM HAIL ENE WELLS 39.14N 97.55W
08/15/2013 E0.88 INCH OTTAWA KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
BYRNE
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LSRTOP
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
418 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0415 PM HAIL ENE WELLS 39.14N 97.55W
08/15/2013 E0.88 INCH OTTAWA KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
BYRNE
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
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KICT [152113]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KICT 152113
LSRICT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
413 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0409 PM HAIL BEVERLY 39.01N 97.98W
08/15/2013 E1.75 INCH LINCOLN KS EMERGENCY MNGR
&&
$$
MWM
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
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LSRICT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
413 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0409 PM HAIL BEVERLY 39.01N 97.98W
08/15/2013 E1.75 INCH LINCOLN KS EMERGENCY MNGR
&&
$$
MWM
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
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KOUN [152103]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KOUN 152103
LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
403 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0340 PM HAIL 2 N DEVOL 34.22N 98.59W
08/15/2013 E1.75 INCH COTTON OK OTHER FEDERAL
REPORTED BY RURAL MAIL CARRIER
&&
$$
FM
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LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
403 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0340 PM HAIL 2 N DEVOL 34.22N 98.59W
08/15/2013 E1.75 INCH COTTON OK OTHER FEDERAL
REPORTED BY RURAL MAIL CARRIER
&&
$$
FM
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KTOP [152101]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KTOP 152101
LSRTOP
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
401 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0400 PM HAIL 6 WSW OAK HILL 39.22N 97.45W
08/15/2013 E0.88 INCH OTTAWA KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
BYRNE
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LSRTOP
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
401 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0400 PM HAIL 6 WSW OAK HILL 39.22N 97.45W
08/15/2013 E0.88 INCH OTTAWA KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
BYRNE
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
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KOUN [152054]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KOUN 152054
LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
353 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0345 PM HAIL WESTOVER 33.50N 99.02W
08/15/2013 E1.00 INCH BAYLOR TX PUBLIC
0345 PM TSTM WND GST WESTOVER 33.50N 99.02W
08/15/2013 E60 MPH BAYLOR TX PUBLIC
&&
$$
FM
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LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
353 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0345 PM HAIL WESTOVER 33.50N 99.02W
08/15/2013 E1.00 INCH BAYLOR TX PUBLIC
0345 PM TSTM WND GST WESTOVER 33.50N 99.02W
08/15/2013 E60 MPH BAYLOR TX PUBLIC
&&
$$
FM
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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 493
WWUS20 KWNS 152050
SEL3
SPC WW 152050
KSZ000-NEZ000-160400-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 493
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
KANSAS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF GOODLAND KANSAS TO 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
MANHATTAN KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 492...
DISCUSSION...SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE EVENING
OVER A NUMBER OF AREAS FROM EXTREME SRN NEB ACROSS MUCH OF KS.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AN AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
AN INCREASE IN LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND FROM STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
1) AN MCV DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST INTO NERN KS...2) THE TRAILING EDGE
OF THE MCV WHERE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION IN A
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS WRN KS...AND 3) ALONG SFC
TROUGH AXIS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING TOWARD WRN NEB.
ALL THESE AREAS WILL SEE SOME CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE
SHORT-TERM. STORMS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE NEB SHORTWAVE ARE
LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS LATER TONIGHT AND THEN SPREAD
SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WRN/CNTRL KS POSING A CONTINUING
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 34030.
...CARBIN
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SEL3
SPC WW 152050
KSZ000-NEZ000-160400-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 493
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
KANSAS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF GOODLAND KANSAS TO 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
MANHATTAN KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 492...
DISCUSSION...SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE EVENING
OVER A NUMBER OF AREAS FROM EXTREME SRN NEB ACROSS MUCH OF KS.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AN AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
AN INCREASE IN LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND FROM STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
1) AN MCV DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST INTO NERN KS...2) THE TRAILING EDGE
OF THE MCV WHERE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION IN A
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS WRN KS...AND 3) ALONG SFC
TROUGH AXIS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING TOWARD WRN NEB.
ALL THESE AREAS WILL SEE SOME CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE
SHORT-TERM. STORMS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE NEB SHORTWAVE ARE
LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS LATER TONIGHT AND THEN SPREAD
SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WRN/CNTRL KS POSING A CONTINUING
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 34030.
...CARBIN
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KTOP [152049]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KTOP 152049
LSRTOP
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
349 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0349 PM TSTM WND GST 6 WSW OAK HILL 39.22N 97.45W
08/15/2013 E65 MPH OTTAWA KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
BYRNE
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LSRTOP
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
349 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0349 PM TSTM WND GST 6 WSW OAK HILL 39.22N 97.45W
08/15/2013 E65 MPH OTTAWA KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
BYRNE
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KOUN [152033]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KOUN 152033
LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
333 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0325 PM HAIL 2 S GRANDFIELD 34.20N 98.69W
08/15/2013 E1.00 INCH TILLMAN OK AMATEUR RADIO
0330 PM HAIL 2 SSE GRANDFIELD 34.20N 98.67W
08/15/2013 E1.50 INCH TILLMAN OK AMATEUR RADIO
&&
$$
FM
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LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
333 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0325 PM HAIL 2 S GRANDFIELD 34.20N 98.69W
08/15/2013 E1.00 INCH TILLMAN OK AMATEUR RADIO
0330 PM HAIL 2 SSE GRANDFIELD 34.20N 98.67W
08/15/2013 E1.50 INCH TILLMAN OK AMATEUR RADIO
&&
$$
FM
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1723
ACUS11 KWNS 152028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152028
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-152200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1723
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEB...NRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 152028Z - 152200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN NEB AND
NW KS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT CONTINUING ACROSS NCNTRL
KS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW
ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION...THE AIRMASS ACROSS NRN KS AND SRN NEB HAS BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MESONALYSIS ESTIMATING
MLCAPE NOW IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. A CLUSTER OF SFC-BASED
STORMS IS ALREADY INTENSIFYING IN CLAY COUNTY KS TO THE NORTHEAST OF
SALINA ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED MCV EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
IMAGERY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SEVERAL CLOUD STREETS
OF CUMULUS ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN SW NEB. THE WRF-HRRR
DEVELOPS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE AXIS OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 22Z AND
23Z AND MOVES STRONG CONVECTION SSEWD ACROSS NW KS. THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 40-45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE
GOODLAND WSR-88D VWP SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. AS CELL COVERAGE INCREASES EARLY THIS
EVENING...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IF A
COLD POOL CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED.
..BROYLES/CARBIN.. 08/15/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 39850181 40070156 40400142 40710126 40850075 40659992
40419905 40199847 40139743 40009666 39599614 39099610
38649639 38449722 38499765 38519863 38420058 38660192
39150228 39850181
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152028
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-152200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1723
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEB...NRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 152028Z - 152200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN NEB AND
NW KS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT CONTINUING ACROSS NCNTRL
KS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW
ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION...THE AIRMASS ACROSS NRN KS AND SRN NEB HAS BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MESONALYSIS ESTIMATING
MLCAPE NOW IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. A CLUSTER OF SFC-BASED
STORMS IS ALREADY INTENSIFYING IN CLAY COUNTY KS TO THE NORTHEAST OF
SALINA ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED MCV EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
IMAGERY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SEVERAL CLOUD STREETS
OF CUMULUS ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN SW NEB. THE WRF-HRRR
DEVELOPS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE AXIS OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 22Z AND
23Z AND MOVES STRONG CONVECTION SSEWD ACROSS NW KS. THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 40-45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE
GOODLAND WSR-88D VWP SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. AS CELL COVERAGE INCREASES EARLY THIS
EVENING...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IF A
COLD POOL CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED.
..BROYLES/CARBIN.. 08/15/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 39850181 40070156 40400142 40710126 40850075 40659992
40419905 40199847 40139743 40009666 39599614 39099610
38649639 38449722 38499765 38519863 38420058 38660192
39150228 39850181
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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 492
WWUS20 KWNS 152019
SEL2
SPC WW 152019
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-160400-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 492
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH OF
MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS TO 75 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CHILDRESS
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM NW TX TO SRN KS THIS AFTERNOON.
REGION LIES WITHIN WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND EXPECT CONTINUED
BACKGROUND ASCENT TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL STORMS GIVEN GRADUAL
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.
MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX SPREADING SEWD FROM WRN KS WILL ALSO AID IN
INTENSIFICATION OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
EVENING SO THAT STORMS MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND PERSISTENT
WITH TIME. MODEST LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MUTLICELLS AND
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT A MORE ORGANIZED MCS WILL EVOLVE
ACROSS WRN KS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD WIND AND
HAIL POTENTIAL SPREADING INTO PARTS OF THE TX PNHDL AND WRN OK
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 34020.
...CARBIN
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SEL2
SPC WW 152019
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-160400-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 492
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH OF
MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS TO 75 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CHILDRESS
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM NW TX TO SRN KS THIS AFTERNOON.
REGION LIES WITHIN WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND EXPECT CONTINUED
BACKGROUND ASCENT TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL STORMS GIVEN GRADUAL
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.
MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX SPREADING SEWD FROM WRN KS WILL ALSO AID IN
INTENSIFICATION OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
EVENING SO THAT STORMS MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND PERSISTENT
WITH TIME. MODEST LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MUTLICELLS AND
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT A MORE ORGANIZED MCS WILL EVOLVE
ACROSS WRN KS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD WIND AND
HAIL POTENTIAL SPREADING INTO PARTS OF THE TX PNHDL AND WRN OK
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 34020.
...CARBIN
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KJAX [152000]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KJAX 152000
LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
400 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0310 PM TSTM WND DMG WARESBORO 31.25N 82.47W
08/15/2013 WARE GA EMERGENCY MNGR
SMALL LIMBS WERE REPORTED DOWN IN THE WARESBORO COMMUNITY
WITH ESTIMATED WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH. TIME ESTIMATED BY
RADAR.
&&
$$
ARS
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LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
400 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0310 PM TSTM WND DMG WARESBORO 31.25N 82.47W
08/15/2013 WARE GA EMERGENCY MNGR
SMALL LIMBS WERE REPORTED DOWN IN THE WARESBORO COMMUNITY
WITH ESTIMATED WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH. TIME ESTIMATED BY
RADAR.
&&
$$
ARS
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 151958
SWODY1
SPC AC 151955
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
VALID 152000Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHEAST
FL...
...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MORE OF CENTRAL
KS INTO CENTRAL OK AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF
NORTHWEST TX HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS DEVELOPING WITHIN A
CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXTENDING FROM S-SE OF KABI NNEWD
THROUGH WRN NORTH TX...WEST CENTRAL OK INTO CENTRAL KS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KT
SUGGESTS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS EXPANDED EWD SOME AND THUS
RESULTS IN THE EWD SPATIAL CHANGE TO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.
ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF A SWD
MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NWRN...CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
KS...WITH THE LATTER AREA HAVING STORMS FORM AT THE MERGER OF TWO
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WHILE A SLIGHT RISK REMAINS INTO PART OF SRN
NEB...THE HIGHER SEVERE WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES /I.E. 30 PERCENT
RISK LEVEL/ ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXTEND TO THE NEB BORDER WITH THE
NRN EXTENT NOW AS FAR NORTH AS THE NWRN-NORTH CENTRAL KS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY.
...SRN GA/NRN FL...
TSTM/SVR WEATHER THREAT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK ACROSS THE PORTION
OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATING THE
ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL
MESOSCALE DETAILS FOR THIS REGION...PLEASE REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION 1721.
..PETERS.. 08/15/2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT THU AUG 15 2013/
CORRECTED TO REMOVE EXTRA GENL TSTM LINE OVER MAINE.
...WRN TO CNTRL KS SOUTH TO TX/OK PNHDLS AND WRN OK...
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND STRENGTHENING NNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM FROM
MID/UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS PROCESS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAK LEE CYCLONE RIPPLING SSEWD ALONG/NEAR
SFC/THERMAL TROUGH AXIS FROM ERN CO TO TX PNHDL BY FRIDAY MORNING.
MORNING WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS DEPICT AT LEAST TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL ACT TO ENHANCE ASCENT ACROSS KS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE FIRST...A MCV ASSOCIATED
WITH LOOSELY ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT MCS...WAS MOVING INTO NRN KS LATE
THIS MORNING. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MCS EXTENDED FROM
E-CNTRL KS WWD/NWWD TO NERN CO. NEW ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS
OCCURRING AMIDST AN EXPANDING ACCAS FIELD WELL AHEAD OF THE MCV AND
OUTFLOW FROM CNTRL KS TO WRN/CNTRL OK. WEAK POST-OUTFLOW CONVECTION
WAS PERSISTING OVER NERN CO AND SRN NEB.
THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT ACROSS MT/WY. THIS IMPULSE
WILL LIKELY ACT TO REINFORCE OR SUSTAIN DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AND
STRENGTHENING SHEAR ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT.
HEATING/MIXING WILL ELIMINATE WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE
RISK AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SFC-BASED STORMS LIKELY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS BENEATH 7-8 C/KM
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG.
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN
30-50 KT NNWLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
INITIALLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST AND
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
TO DAMAGING WINDS. HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER RH ARE
LIMITED BY LACK OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE RESPECTIVELY
AND THESE FACTORS MAY LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...IF
CONVECTION CAN REMAIN AT LEAST SEMI-DISCRETE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO. IN ADDITION TO INITIAL RISK FOR DAMAGING SUPERCELL
GUSTS...SOME CHANCE EXISTS FOR UPSCALE/MCS ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT.
LATEST STORM SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN
QUITE LIMITED AND PROBABLY FOCUSED FROM SRN KS TO NRN OK DURING THE
LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
...NRN FL/SRN GA...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM WRN FL PNHDL ACROSS SRN GA HAS BECOME
BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING DUE TO DENSE CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH
AND RESULTANT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. MLCAPE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY CLIMBED TO AROUND 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF A CLUSTER
OF ROBUST CONVECTION SPREADING ENEWD FROM FL PNHDL/SWRN GA. A WEAK
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE
TROUGH...AND MODEST 25KT MID-LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STORM
ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE AND ACT TO ENHANCE LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
INCREASE ALONG SEA BREEZES ACROSS FL. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...A
CORRIDOR WITH A GREATER DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE OVER
PORTIONS OF NRN FL AND SRN GA INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUS...TSTM WIND
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INCREASED ACROSS THESE AREAS.
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SWODY1
SPC AC 151955
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
VALID 152000Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHEAST
FL...
...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MORE OF CENTRAL
KS INTO CENTRAL OK AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF
NORTHWEST TX HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS DEVELOPING WITHIN A
CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXTENDING FROM S-SE OF KABI NNEWD
THROUGH WRN NORTH TX...WEST CENTRAL OK INTO CENTRAL KS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KT
SUGGESTS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS EXPANDED EWD SOME AND THUS
RESULTS IN THE EWD SPATIAL CHANGE TO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.
ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF A SWD
MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NWRN...CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
KS...WITH THE LATTER AREA HAVING STORMS FORM AT THE MERGER OF TWO
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WHILE A SLIGHT RISK REMAINS INTO PART OF SRN
NEB...THE HIGHER SEVERE WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES /I.E. 30 PERCENT
RISK LEVEL/ ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXTEND TO THE NEB BORDER WITH THE
NRN EXTENT NOW AS FAR NORTH AS THE NWRN-NORTH CENTRAL KS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY.
...SRN GA/NRN FL...
TSTM/SVR WEATHER THREAT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK ACROSS THE PORTION
OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATING THE
ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL
MESOSCALE DETAILS FOR THIS REGION...PLEASE REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION 1721.
..PETERS.. 08/15/2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT THU AUG 15 2013/
CORRECTED TO REMOVE EXTRA GENL TSTM LINE OVER MAINE.
...WRN TO CNTRL KS SOUTH TO TX/OK PNHDLS AND WRN OK...
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND STRENGTHENING NNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM FROM
MID/UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS PROCESS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAK LEE CYCLONE RIPPLING SSEWD ALONG/NEAR
SFC/THERMAL TROUGH AXIS FROM ERN CO TO TX PNHDL BY FRIDAY MORNING.
MORNING WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS DEPICT AT LEAST TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL ACT TO ENHANCE ASCENT ACROSS KS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE FIRST...A MCV ASSOCIATED
WITH LOOSELY ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT MCS...WAS MOVING INTO NRN KS LATE
THIS MORNING. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MCS EXTENDED FROM
E-CNTRL KS WWD/NWWD TO NERN CO. NEW ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS
OCCURRING AMIDST AN EXPANDING ACCAS FIELD WELL AHEAD OF THE MCV AND
OUTFLOW FROM CNTRL KS TO WRN/CNTRL OK. WEAK POST-OUTFLOW CONVECTION
WAS PERSISTING OVER NERN CO AND SRN NEB.
THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT ACROSS MT/WY. THIS IMPULSE
WILL LIKELY ACT TO REINFORCE OR SUSTAIN DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AND
STRENGTHENING SHEAR ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT.
HEATING/MIXING WILL ELIMINATE WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE
RISK AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SFC-BASED STORMS LIKELY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS BENEATH 7-8 C/KM
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG.
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN
30-50 KT NNWLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
INITIALLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST AND
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
TO DAMAGING WINDS. HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER RH ARE
LIMITED BY LACK OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE RESPECTIVELY
AND THESE FACTORS MAY LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...IF
CONVECTION CAN REMAIN AT LEAST SEMI-DISCRETE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO. IN ADDITION TO INITIAL RISK FOR DAMAGING SUPERCELL
GUSTS...SOME CHANCE EXISTS FOR UPSCALE/MCS ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT.
LATEST STORM SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN
QUITE LIMITED AND PROBABLY FOCUSED FROM SRN KS TO NRN OK DURING THE
LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
...NRN FL/SRN GA...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM WRN FL PNHDL ACROSS SRN GA HAS BECOME
BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING DUE TO DENSE CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH
AND RESULTANT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. MLCAPE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY CLIMBED TO AROUND 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF A CLUSTER
OF ROBUST CONVECTION SPREADING ENEWD FROM FL PNHDL/SWRN GA. A WEAK
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE
TROUGH...AND MODEST 25KT MID-LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STORM
ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE AND ACT TO ENHANCE LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
INCREASE ALONG SEA BREEZES ACROSS FL. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...A
CORRIDOR WITH A GREATER DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE OVER
PORTIONS OF NRN FL AND SRN GA INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUS...TSTM WIND
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INCREASED ACROSS THESE AREAS.
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1722
ACUS11 KWNS 151951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151950
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-152115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1722
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS...WRN OK...ERN TX PANHANDLE...NW TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 151950Z - 152115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM SRN KS SWD
ACROSS OK...THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO NW TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE
INTENSE CELLS. WW ISSUANCE COULD BECOME NECESSARY ONCE IT CAN BE
DETERMINED WHERE THE CELL COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS ACROSS
WCNTRL OK WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F. MLCAPE ON THE WRN EDGE OF
THE MOIST CORRIDOR FROM WRN OK NWD INTO SW KS IS ESTIMATED FROM 1500
TO 2500 J/KG WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING A FIELD OF CUMULUS
ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...A
FEW CELLS HAVE INITIATED IN NW OK AND IN NW TX ALONG THE MOIST AXIS
WHERE THE AIRMASS IS UNCAPPED. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO INITIATE
FURTHER TO THE WEST AS SFC TEMPS APPROACH 90 F LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
IF A LARGER CLUSTER OF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE...THEN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE. THE LARGE HAIL THREAT WOULD PROBABLY BE
GREATEST WITH CELLS THAT INITIATE ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY
CORRIDOR DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A
WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD BE MOST PROMINENT WITH CELLS THAT CAN
ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AND MOVE SWD ALONG THE MOIST AXIS IN WRN OK.
..BROYLES/CARBIN.. 08/15/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 33069917 33089996 33440037 35170144 36210127 37350100
37760063 37889992 37799847 37609743 37409710 36729692
36099668 35559666 34919711 34479760 34029807 33399860
33209879 33069917
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151950
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-152115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1722
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS...WRN OK...ERN TX PANHANDLE...NW TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 151950Z - 152115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM SRN KS SWD
ACROSS OK...THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO NW TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE
INTENSE CELLS. WW ISSUANCE COULD BECOME NECESSARY ONCE IT CAN BE
DETERMINED WHERE THE CELL COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS ACROSS
WCNTRL OK WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F. MLCAPE ON THE WRN EDGE OF
THE MOIST CORRIDOR FROM WRN OK NWD INTO SW KS IS ESTIMATED FROM 1500
TO 2500 J/KG WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING A FIELD OF CUMULUS
ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...A
FEW CELLS HAVE INITIATED IN NW OK AND IN NW TX ALONG THE MOIST AXIS
WHERE THE AIRMASS IS UNCAPPED. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO INITIATE
FURTHER TO THE WEST AS SFC TEMPS APPROACH 90 F LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
IF A LARGER CLUSTER OF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE...THEN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE. THE LARGE HAIL THREAT WOULD PROBABLY BE
GREATEST WITH CELLS THAT INITIATE ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY
CORRIDOR DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A
WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD BE MOST PROMINENT WITH CELLS THAT CAN
ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AND MOVE SWD ALONG THE MOIST AXIS IN WRN OK.
..BROYLES/CARBIN.. 08/15/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 33069917 33089996 33440037 35170144 36210127 37350100
37760063 37889992 37799847 37609743 37409710 36729692
36099668 35559666 34919711 34479760 34029807 33399860
33209879 33069917
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1721
ACUS11 KWNS 151909
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151909 COR
GAZ000-FLZ000-152030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1721
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA AND NRN FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 151909Z - 152030Z
CORRECTED TO CHANGE EARLY THIS EVENING TO THIS AFTERNOON IN SECOND
PARAGRAPH
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS
TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WW.
DISCUSSION...A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM SRN GA SWWD INTO SERN AL INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.
INSOLATION IN THE WARM SECTOR HAS DESTABILIZED THE VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT MLCAPE HAS BEEN LIMITED TO AOB 1500 J/KG DUE TO
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE MOIST
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH PW AND WEAK CAP HAS PROMOTED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS STORMS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT...IN THE
WARM SECTOR AND ALONG SW-NE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES EXTENDING INLAND
FROM THE GULF. VWP DATA INDICATE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WITH 15-20 KT
DEEP LAYER WSWLY WINDS IN WARM SECTOR. WHILE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS MARGINAL...A FEW STORMS MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WING GUSTS SUPPORTED BY WATER
LOADING PROCESSES AND ESPECIALLY WHERE UPDRAFT INTENSITIES ARE
AUGMENTED BRIEFLY BY BOUNDARY/STORM MERGERS.
..DIAL/CARBIN.. 08/15/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 30628162 30378198 30168370 31058351 31548324 31368171
30628162
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151909 COR
GAZ000-FLZ000-152030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1721
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA AND NRN FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 151909Z - 152030Z
CORRECTED TO CHANGE EARLY THIS EVENING TO THIS AFTERNOON IN SECOND
PARAGRAPH
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS
TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WW.
DISCUSSION...A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM SRN GA SWWD INTO SERN AL INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.
INSOLATION IN THE WARM SECTOR HAS DESTABILIZED THE VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT MLCAPE HAS BEEN LIMITED TO AOB 1500 J/KG DUE TO
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE MOIST
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH PW AND WEAK CAP HAS PROMOTED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS STORMS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT...IN THE
WARM SECTOR AND ALONG SW-NE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES EXTENDING INLAND
FROM THE GULF. VWP DATA INDICATE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WITH 15-20 KT
DEEP LAYER WSWLY WINDS IN WARM SECTOR. WHILE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS MARGINAL...A FEW STORMS MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WING GUSTS SUPPORTED BY WATER
LOADING PROCESSES AND ESPECIALLY WHERE UPDRAFT INTENSITIES ARE
AUGMENTED BRIEFLY BY BOUNDARY/STORM MERGERS.
..DIAL/CARBIN.. 08/15/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 30628162 30378198 30168370 31058351 31548324 31368171
30628162
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1721
ACUS11 KWNS 151855
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151855
GAZ000-FLZ000-152030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1721
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA AND NRN FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 151855Z - 152030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS
TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WW.
DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN GA SWWD INTO SERN AL INTO
THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. INSOLATION IN THE WARM SECTOR HAS DESTABILIZED
THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT MLCAPE HAS BEEN LIMITED TO AOB
1500 J/KG DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THE MOIST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH PW AND WEAK CAP
HAS PROMOTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS STORMS ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONT...IN THE WARM SECTOR AND ALONG SW-NE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES
EXTENDING INLAND FROM THE GULF. VWP DATA INDICATE WEAK VERTICAL
SHEAR WITH 15-20 KT DEEP LAYER WSWLY WINDS IN WARM SECTOR. WHILE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS MARGINAL...A FEW STORMS
MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WING
GUSTS SUPPORTED BY WATER LOADING PROCESSES AND ESPECIALLY WHERE
UPDRAFT INTENSITIES ARE AUGMENTED BRIEFLY BY BOUNDARY/STORM MERGERS.
..DIAL/CARBIN.. 08/15/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 30628162 30378198 30168370 31058351 31548324 31368171
30628162
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151855
GAZ000-FLZ000-152030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1721
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA AND NRN FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 151855Z - 152030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS
TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WW.
DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN GA SWWD INTO SERN AL INTO
THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. INSOLATION IN THE WARM SECTOR HAS DESTABILIZED
THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT MLCAPE HAS BEEN LIMITED TO AOB
1500 J/KG DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THE MOIST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH PW AND WEAK CAP
HAS PROMOTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS STORMS ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONT...IN THE WARM SECTOR AND ALONG SW-NE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES
EXTENDING INLAND FROM THE GULF. VWP DATA INDICATE WEAK VERTICAL
SHEAR WITH 15-20 KT DEEP LAYER WSWLY WINDS IN WARM SECTOR. WHILE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS MARGINAL...A FEW STORMS
MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WING
GUSTS SUPPORTED BY WATER LOADING PROCESSES AND ESPECIALLY WHERE
UPDRAFT INTENSITIES ARE AUGMENTED BRIEFLY BY BOUNDARY/STORM MERGERS.
..DIAL/CARBIN.. 08/15/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 30628162 30378198 30168370 31058351 31548324 31368171
30628162
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KCHS [151714]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KCHS 151714
LSRCHS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
113 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1230 PM FLASH FLOOD CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
08/15/2013 CHARLESTON SC CITY OFFICIAL
CITY OF CHARLESTON REPORTS FLOODING ON GEORGE STREET
BETWEEN COMING STREET AND ST PHILIP STREET. ROAD IS
CLOSED.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CHS1300799
$$
TIMTE
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LSRCHS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
113 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1230 PM FLASH FLOOD CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
08/15/2013 CHARLESTON SC CITY OFFICIAL
CITY OF CHARLESTON REPORTS FLOODING ON GEORGE STREET
BETWEEN COMING STREET AND ST PHILIP STREET. ROAD IS
CLOSED.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CHS1300799
$$
TIMTE
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KOAX [151709]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KOAX 151709
LSROAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1208 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSW MONDAMIN 41.68N 96.04W
08/15/2013 M3.11 INCH HARRISON IA COCORAHS
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNE MISSOURI VALLEY 41.59N 95.88W
08/15/2013 M2.85 INCH HARRISON IA COCORAHS
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNW LOGAN 41.67N 95.81W
08/15/2013 M2.27 INCH HARRISON IA COCORAHS
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NNW BLENCOE 41.94N 96.09W
08/15/2013 M1.52 INCH MONONA IA COCORAHS
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN MALVERN 41.01N 95.59W
08/15/2013 M1.40 INCH MILLS IA COCORAHS
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 NNE COUNCIL BLUFFS 41.28N 95.84W
08/15/2013 M1.25 INCH POTTAWATTAMIE IA COCORAHS
&&
$$
J-E.KLISH
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LSROAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1208 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSW MONDAMIN 41.68N 96.04W
08/15/2013 M3.11 INCH HARRISON IA COCORAHS
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNE MISSOURI VALLEY 41.59N 95.88W
08/15/2013 M2.85 INCH HARRISON IA COCORAHS
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNW LOGAN 41.67N 95.81W
08/15/2013 M2.27 INCH HARRISON IA COCORAHS
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NNW BLENCOE 41.94N 96.09W
08/15/2013 M1.52 INCH MONONA IA COCORAHS
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN MALVERN 41.01N 95.59W
08/15/2013 M1.40 INCH MILLS IA COCORAHS
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 NNE COUNCIL BLUFFS 41.28N 95.84W
08/15/2013 M1.25 INCH POTTAWATTAMIE IA COCORAHS
&&
$$
J-E.KLISH
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KAMA [151651]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
NWUS54 KAMA 151651
LSRAMA
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1113 AM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0450 PM TSTM WND GST 9 ESE EVA 36.76N 101.74W
08/14/2013 E65 MPH TEXAS OK EMERGENCY MNGR
ESTIMATED 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON
RADAR.
0545 PM TORNADO 14 E STRATFORD 36.34N 101.82W
08/14/2013 SHERMAN TX PUBLIC
A FARMER REPORTED A WEAK DUST WHIRL TORNADO AND
ROTATING WALL CLOUD NEAR HIGHWAY 15. NO DAMAGE REPORTED.
GROUND CIRCULATION PERSISTED 3 MINUTES...DURATION
ESTIMATED 545-548 PM CDT.
0555 PM TSTM WND DMG 15 ESE STRATFORD 36.25N 101.83W
08/14/2013 SHERMAN TX PUBLIC
HORSE TRAILERS BLOWN OVER BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 60 MPH.
0643 PM HAIL MORSE 36.06N 101.47W
08/14/2013 E1.00 INCH HANSFORD TX TRAINED SPOTTER
0655 PM HAIL 3 W STINNETT 35.82N 101.50W
08/14/2013 E1.75 INCH HUTCHINSON TX BROADCAST MEDIA
0657 PM HAIL 7 W STINNETT 35.84N 101.57W
08/14/2013 E1.00 INCH HUTCHINSON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
0717 PM HAIL SANFORD 35.70N 101.53W
08/14/2013 E1.75 INCH HUTCHINSON TX EMERGENCY MNGR
0721 PM HAIL 2 ESE SANFORD 35.69N 101.50W
08/14/2013 E2.00 INCH HUTCHINSON TX EMERGENCY MNGR
DAMAGE TO SEVERAL AUTOMOBILE WIND SHIELDS. ONE SPOTTER
EXPERIENCED SEVERE DAMAGE TO A NEW PICKUP TRUCK FROM 2
INCH DIAMETER HAIL.
0725 PM TSTM WND GST BORGER 35.66N 101.40W
08/14/2013 E60 MPH HUTCHINSON TX AMATEUR RADIO
0729 PM TSTM WND GST FRITCH 35.64N 101.60W
08/14/2013 E75 MPH HUTCHINSON TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
0729 PM TSTM WND DMG FRITCH 35.64N 101.60W
08/14/2013 HUTCHINSON TX EMERGENCY MNGR
DAMAGE TO CARPORTS AND WEAK STRUCTURES IN LAKE MEREDITH
AREA. WINDS ESTIMATED AT 75 MPH.
0729 PM HAIL FRITCH 35.64N 101.60W
08/14/2013 M1.00 INCH HUTCHINSON TX EMERGENCY MNGR
QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN THE LAKE MEREDITH AREA.
0734 PM TSTM WND GST 1 S BORGER 35.64N 101.40W
08/14/2013 E65 MPH HUTCHINSON TX TRAINED SPOTTER
0740 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 W BORGER 35.66N 101.49W
08/14/2013 HUTCHINSON TX EMERGENCY MNGR
A FOOT OF FLOWING WATER OVER INTERSECTION OF HWY 136
AND 1559...USUALLY NOT A FLOOD PRONE AREA.
0810 PM HAIL PANHANDLE 35.35N 101.38W
08/14/2013 E1.00 INCH CARSON TX TRAINED SPOTTER
0845 PM TSTM WND GST 1 W CLAUDE 35.11N 101.38W
08/14/2013 E60 MPH ARMSTRONG TX TRAINED SPOTTER
0845 PM HAIL 1 W CLAUDE 35.11N 101.38W
08/14/2013 E0.88 INCH ARMSTRONG TX TRAINED SPOTTER
0900 PM HAIL CLAUDE 35.11N 101.36W
08/14/2013 E1.50 INCH ARMSTRONG TX EMERGENCY MNGR
0925 PM HAIL 8 ENE WAYSIDE 34.83N 101.41W
08/14/2013 M1.50 INCH ARMSTRONG TX EMERGENCY MNGR
AT HWY 207 CROSSING OF PRAIRIE DOG TOWN FORK OF THE RED
RIVER.
1000 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 SE AMARILLO 35.17N 101.78W
08/14/2013 RANDALL TX BROADCAST MEDIA
CAR STALLED IN FLOODWATERS AT INTERSECTION OF GRAND AND
34TH
&&
EVENT NUMBER AMA1300780 AMA1300798 AMA1300799 AMA1300781 AMA1300783
AMA1300782 AMA1300784 AMA1300797 AMA1300786 AMA1300785 AMA1300795
AMA1300796 AMA1300787 AMA1300800 AMA1300788 AMA1300789 AMA1300790
AMA1300793 AMA1300792 AMA1300794
$$
LINDLEY
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LSRAMA
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1113 AM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0450 PM TSTM WND GST 9 ESE EVA 36.76N 101.74W
08/14/2013 E65 MPH TEXAS OK EMERGENCY MNGR
ESTIMATED 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON
RADAR.
0545 PM TORNADO 14 E STRATFORD 36.34N 101.82W
08/14/2013 SHERMAN TX PUBLIC
A FARMER REPORTED A WEAK DUST WHIRL TORNADO AND
ROTATING WALL CLOUD NEAR HIGHWAY 15. NO DAMAGE REPORTED.
GROUND CIRCULATION PERSISTED 3 MINUTES...DURATION
ESTIMATED 545-548 PM CDT.
0555 PM TSTM WND DMG 15 ESE STRATFORD 36.25N 101.83W
08/14/2013 SHERMAN TX PUBLIC
HORSE TRAILERS BLOWN OVER BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 60 MPH.
0643 PM HAIL MORSE 36.06N 101.47W
08/14/2013 E1.00 INCH HANSFORD TX TRAINED SPOTTER
0655 PM HAIL 3 W STINNETT 35.82N 101.50W
08/14/2013 E1.75 INCH HUTCHINSON TX BROADCAST MEDIA
0657 PM HAIL 7 W STINNETT 35.84N 101.57W
08/14/2013 E1.00 INCH HUTCHINSON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
0717 PM HAIL SANFORD 35.70N 101.53W
08/14/2013 E1.75 INCH HUTCHINSON TX EMERGENCY MNGR
0721 PM HAIL 2 ESE SANFORD 35.69N 101.50W
08/14/2013 E2.00 INCH HUTCHINSON TX EMERGENCY MNGR
DAMAGE TO SEVERAL AUTOMOBILE WIND SHIELDS. ONE SPOTTER
EXPERIENCED SEVERE DAMAGE TO A NEW PICKUP TRUCK FROM 2
INCH DIAMETER HAIL.
0725 PM TSTM WND GST BORGER 35.66N 101.40W
08/14/2013 E60 MPH HUTCHINSON TX AMATEUR RADIO
0729 PM TSTM WND GST FRITCH 35.64N 101.60W
08/14/2013 E75 MPH HUTCHINSON TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
0729 PM TSTM WND DMG FRITCH 35.64N 101.60W
08/14/2013 HUTCHINSON TX EMERGENCY MNGR
DAMAGE TO CARPORTS AND WEAK STRUCTURES IN LAKE MEREDITH
AREA. WINDS ESTIMATED AT 75 MPH.
0729 PM HAIL FRITCH 35.64N 101.60W
08/14/2013 M1.00 INCH HUTCHINSON TX EMERGENCY MNGR
QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN THE LAKE MEREDITH AREA.
0734 PM TSTM WND GST 1 S BORGER 35.64N 101.40W
08/14/2013 E65 MPH HUTCHINSON TX TRAINED SPOTTER
0740 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 W BORGER 35.66N 101.49W
08/14/2013 HUTCHINSON TX EMERGENCY MNGR
A FOOT OF FLOWING WATER OVER INTERSECTION OF HWY 136
AND 1559...USUALLY NOT A FLOOD PRONE AREA.
0810 PM HAIL PANHANDLE 35.35N 101.38W
08/14/2013 E1.00 INCH CARSON TX TRAINED SPOTTER
0845 PM TSTM WND GST 1 W CLAUDE 35.11N 101.38W
08/14/2013 E60 MPH ARMSTRONG TX TRAINED SPOTTER
0845 PM HAIL 1 W CLAUDE 35.11N 101.38W
08/14/2013 E0.88 INCH ARMSTRONG TX TRAINED SPOTTER
0900 PM HAIL CLAUDE 35.11N 101.36W
08/14/2013 E1.50 INCH ARMSTRONG TX EMERGENCY MNGR
0925 PM HAIL 8 ENE WAYSIDE 34.83N 101.41W
08/14/2013 M1.50 INCH ARMSTRONG TX EMERGENCY MNGR
AT HWY 207 CROSSING OF PRAIRIE DOG TOWN FORK OF THE RED
RIVER.
1000 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 SE AMARILLO 35.17N 101.78W
08/14/2013 RANDALL TX BROADCAST MEDIA
CAR STALLED IN FLOODWATERS AT INTERSECTION OF GRAND AND
34TH
&&
EVENT NUMBER AMA1300780 AMA1300798 AMA1300799 AMA1300781 AMA1300783
AMA1300782 AMA1300784 AMA1300797 AMA1300786 AMA1300785 AMA1300795
AMA1300796 AMA1300787 AMA1300800 AMA1300788 AMA1300789 AMA1300790
AMA1300793 AMA1300792 AMA1300794
$$
LINDLEY
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 2
ACUS01 KWNS 151640
SWODY1
SPC AC 151638
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 2
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 AM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
VALID 151630Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN
PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHEAST
FL...
CORRECTED TO REMOVE EXTRA GENL TSTM LINE OVER MAINE.
...WRN TO CNTRL KS SOUTH TO TX/OK PNHDLS AND WRN OK...
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND STRENGTHENING NNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM FROM
MID/UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS PROCESS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAK LEE CYCLONE RIPPLING SSEWD ALONG/NEAR
SFC/THERMAL TROUGH AXIS FROM ERN CO TO TX PNHDL BY FRIDAY MORNING.
MORNING WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS DEPICT AT LEAST TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL ACT TO ENHANCE ASCENT ACROSS KS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE FIRST...A MCV ASSOCIATED
WITH LOOSELY ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT MCS...WAS MOVING INTO NRN KS LATE
THIS MORNING. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MCS EXTENDED FROM
E-CNTRL KS WWD/NWWD TO NERN CO. NEW ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS
OCCURRING AMIDST AN EXPANDING ACCAS FIELD WELL AHEAD OF THE MCV AND
OUTFLOW FROM CNTRL KS TO WRN/CNTRL OK. WEAK POST-OUTFLOW CONVECTION
WAS PERSISTING OVER NERN CO AND SRN NEB.
THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT ACROSS MT/WY. THIS IMPULSE
WILL LIKELY ACT TO REINFORCE OR SUSTAIN DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AND
STRENGTHENING SHEAR ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT.
HEATING/MIXING WILL ELIMINATE WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE
RISK AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SFC-BASED STORMS LIKELY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS BENEATH 7-8 C/KM
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG.
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN
30-50 KT NNWLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
INITIALLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST AND
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
TO DAMAGING WINDS. HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER RH ARE
LIMITED BY LACK OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE RESPECTIVELY
AND THESE FACTORS MAY LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...IF
CONVECTION CAN REMAIN AT LEAST SEMI-DISCRETE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO. IN ADDITION TO INITIAL RISK FOR DAMAGING SUPERCELL
GUSTS...SOME CHANCE EXISTS FOR UPSCALE/MCS ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT.
LATEST STORM SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN
QUITE LIMITED AND PROBABLY FOCUSED FROM SRN KS TO NRN OK DURING THE
LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
...NRN FL/SRN GA...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM WRN FL PNHDL ACROSS SRN GA HAS BECOME
BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING DUE TO DENSE CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH
AND RESULTANT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. MLCAPE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY CLIMBED TO AROUND 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF A CLUSTER
OF ROBUST CONVECTION SPREADING ENEWD FROM FL PNHDL/SWRN GA. A WEAK
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE
TROUGH...AND MODEST 25KT MID-LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STORM
ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE AND ACT TO ENHANCE LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
INCREASE ALONG SEA BREEZES ACROSS FL. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...A
CORRIDOR WITH A GREATER DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE OVER
PORTIONS OF NRN FL AND SRN GA INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUS...TSTM WIND
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INCREASED ACROSS THESE AREAS.
..CARBIN/BROYLES.. 08/15/2013
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SWODY1
SPC AC 151638
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 2
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 AM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
VALID 151630Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN
PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHEAST
FL...
CORRECTED TO REMOVE EXTRA GENL TSTM LINE OVER MAINE.
...WRN TO CNTRL KS SOUTH TO TX/OK PNHDLS AND WRN OK...
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND STRENGTHENING NNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM FROM
MID/UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS PROCESS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAK LEE CYCLONE RIPPLING SSEWD ALONG/NEAR
SFC/THERMAL TROUGH AXIS FROM ERN CO TO TX PNHDL BY FRIDAY MORNING.
MORNING WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS DEPICT AT LEAST TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL ACT TO ENHANCE ASCENT ACROSS KS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE FIRST...A MCV ASSOCIATED
WITH LOOSELY ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT MCS...WAS MOVING INTO NRN KS LATE
THIS MORNING. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MCS EXTENDED FROM
E-CNTRL KS WWD/NWWD TO NERN CO. NEW ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS
OCCURRING AMIDST AN EXPANDING ACCAS FIELD WELL AHEAD OF THE MCV AND
OUTFLOW FROM CNTRL KS TO WRN/CNTRL OK. WEAK POST-OUTFLOW CONVECTION
WAS PERSISTING OVER NERN CO AND SRN NEB.
THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT ACROSS MT/WY. THIS IMPULSE
WILL LIKELY ACT TO REINFORCE OR SUSTAIN DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AND
STRENGTHENING SHEAR ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT.
HEATING/MIXING WILL ELIMINATE WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE
RISK AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SFC-BASED STORMS LIKELY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS BENEATH 7-8 C/KM
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG.
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN
30-50 KT NNWLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
INITIALLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST AND
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
TO DAMAGING WINDS. HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER RH ARE
LIMITED BY LACK OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE RESPECTIVELY
AND THESE FACTORS MAY LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...IF
CONVECTION CAN REMAIN AT LEAST SEMI-DISCRETE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO. IN ADDITION TO INITIAL RISK FOR DAMAGING SUPERCELL
GUSTS...SOME CHANCE EXISTS FOR UPSCALE/MCS ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT.
LATEST STORM SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN
QUITE LIMITED AND PROBABLY FOCUSED FROM SRN KS TO NRN OK DURING THE
LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
...NRN FL/SRN GA...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM WRN FL PNHDL ACROSS SRN GA HAS BECOME
BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING DUE TO DENSE CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH
AND RESULTANT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. MLCAPE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY CLIMBED TO AROUND 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF A CLUSTER
OF ROBUST CONVECTION SPREADING ENEWD FROM FL PNHDL/SWRN GA. A WEAK
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE
TROUGH...AND MODEST 25KT MID-LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STORM
ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE AND ACT TO ENHANCE LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
INCREASE ALONG SEA BREEZES ACROSS FL. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...A
CORRIDOR WITH A GREATER DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE OVER
PORTIONS OF NRN FL AND SRN GA INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUS...TSTM WIND
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INCREASED ACROSS THESE AREAS.
..CARBIN/BROYLES.. 08/15/2013
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1
ACUS01 KWNS 151637
SWODY1
SPC AC 151635
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
VALID 151630Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN
PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHEAST
FL...
CORRECTED TO REMOVE EXTRA GENL TSTM LINE OVER MAINE.
...WRN TO CNTRL KS SOUTH TO TX/OK PNHDLS AND WRN OK...
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND STRENGTHENING NNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM FROM
MID/UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS PROCESS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAK LEE CYCLONE RIPPLING SSEWD ALONG/NEAR
SFC/THERMAL TROUGH AXIS FROM ERN CO TO TX PNHDL BY FRIDAY MORNING.
MORNING WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS DEPICT AT LEAST TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL ACT TO ENHANCE ASCENT ACROSS KS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE FIRST...A MCV ASSOCIATED
WITH LOOSELY ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT MCS...WAS MOVING INTO NRN KS LATE
THIS MORNING. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MCS EXTENDED FROM
E-CNTRL KS WWD/NWWD TO NERN CO. NEW ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS
OCCURRING AMIDST AN EXPANDING ACCAS FIELD WELL AHEAD OF THE MCV AND
OUTFLOW FROM CNTRL KS TO WRN/CNTRL OK. WEAK POST-OUTFLOW CONVECTION
WAS PERSISTING OVER NERN CO AND SRN NEB.
THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT ACROSS MT/WY. THIS IMPULSE
WILL LIKELY ACT TO REINFORCE OR SUSTAIN DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AND
STRENGTHENING SHEAR ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT.
HEATING/MIXING WILL ELIMINATE WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE
RISK AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SFC-BASED STORMS LIKELY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS BENEATH 7-8 C/KM
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG.
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN
30-50 KT NNWLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
INITIALLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST AND
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
TO DAMAGING WINDS. HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER RH ARE
LIMITED BY LACK OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE RESPECTIVELY
AND THESE FACTORS MAY LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...IF
CONVECTION CAN REMAIN AT LEAST SEMI-DISCRETE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO. IN ADDITION TO INITIAL RISK FOR DAMAGING SUPERCELL
GUSTS...SOME CHANCE EXISTS FOR UPSCALE/MCS ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT.
LATEST STORM SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN
QUITE LIMITED AND PROBABLY FOCUSED FROM SRN KS TO NRN OK DURING THE
LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
...NRN FL/SRN GA...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM WRN FL PNHDL ACROSS SRN GA HAS BECOME
BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING DUE TO DENSE CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH
AND RESULTANT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. MLCAPE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY CLIMBED TO AROUND 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF A CLUSTER
OF ROBUST CONVECTION SPREADING ENEWD FROM FL PNHDL/SWRN GA. A WEAK
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE
TROUGH...AND MODEST 25KT MID-LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STORM
ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE AND ACT TO ENHANCE LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
INCREASE ALONG SEA BREEZES ACROSS FL. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...A
CORRIDOR WITH A GREATER DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE OVER
PORTIONS OF NRN FL AND SRN GA INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUS...TSTM WIND
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INCREASED ACROSS THESE AREAS.
..CARBIN/BROYLES.. 08/15/2013
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SWODY1
SPC AC 151635
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
VALID 151630Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN
PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHEAST
FL...
CORRECTED TO REMOVE EXTRA GENL TSTM LINE OVER MAINE.
...WRN TO CNTRL KS SOUTH TO TX/OK PNHDLS AND WRN OK...
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND STRENGTHENING NNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM FROM
MID/UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS PROCESS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAK LEE CYCLONE RIPPLING SSEWD ALONG/NEAR
SFC/THERMAL TROUGH AXIS FROM ERN CO TO TX PNHDL BY FRIDAY MORNING.
MORNING WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS DEPICT AT LEAST TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL ACT TO ENHANCE ASCENT ACROSS KS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE FIRST...A MCV ASSOCIATED
WITH LOOSELY ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT MCS...WAS MOVING INTO NRN KS LATE
THIS MORNING. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MCS EXTENDED FROM
E-CNTRL KS WWD/NWWD TO NERN CO. NEW ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS
OCCURRING AMIDST AN EXPANDING ACCAS FIELD WELL AHEAD OF THE MCV AND
OUTFLOW FROM CNTRL KS TO WRN/CNTRL OK. WEAK POST-OUTFLOW CONVECTION
WAS PERSISTING OVER NERN CO AND SRN NEB.
THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT ACROSS MT/WY. THIS IMPULSE
WILL LIKELY ACT TO REINFORCE OR SUSTAIN DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AND
STRENGTHENING SHEAR ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT.
HEATING/MIXING WILL ELIMINATE WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE
RISK AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SFC-BASED STORMS LIKELY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS BENEATH 7-8 C/KM
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG.
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN
30-50 KT NNWLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
INITIALLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST AND
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
TO DAMAGING WINDS. HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER RH ARE
LIMITED BY LACK OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE RESPECTIVELY
AND THESE FACTORS MAY LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...IF
CONVECTION CAN REMAIN AT LEAST SEMI-DISCRETE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO. IN ADDITION TO INITIAL RISK FOR DAMAGING SUPERCELL
GUSTS...SOME CHANCE EXISTS FOR UPSCALE/MCS ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT.
LATEST STORM SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN
QUITE LIMITED AND PROBABLY FOCUSED FROM SRN KS TO NRN OK DURING THE
LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
...NRN FL/SRN GA...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM WRN FL PNHDL ACROSS SRN GA HAS BECOME
BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING DUE TO DENSE CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH
AND RESULTANT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. MLCAPE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY CLIMBED TO AROUND 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF A CLUSTER
OF ROBUST CONVECTION SPREADING ENEWD FROM FL PNHDL/SWRN GA. A WEAK
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE
TROUGH...AND MODEST 25KT MID-LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STORM
ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE AND ACT TO ENHANCE LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
INCREASE ALONG SEA BREEZES ACROSS FL. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...A
CORRIDOR WITH A GREATER DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE OVER
PORTIONS OF NRN FL AND SRN GA INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUS...TSTM WIND
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INCREASED ACROSS THESE AREAS.
..CARBIN/BROYLES.. 08/15/2013
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 151632
SWODY1
SPC AC 151630
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
VALID 151630Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN
PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHEAST
FL...
...WRN TO CNTRL KS SOUTH TO TX/OK PNHDLS AND WRN OK...
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND STRENGTHENING NNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM FROM
MID/UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS PROCESS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAK LEE CYCLONE RIPPLING SSEWD ALONG/NEAR
SFC/THERMAL TROUGH AXIS FROM ERN CO TO TX PNHDL BY FRIDAY MORNING.
MORNING WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS DEPICT AT LEAST TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL ACT TO ENHANCE ASCENT ACROSS KS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE FIRST...A MCV ASSOCIATED
WITH LOOSELY ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT MCS...WAS MOVING INTO NRN KS LATE
THIS MORNING. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MCS EXTENDED FROM
E-CNTRL KS WWD/NWWD TO NERN CO. NEW ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS
OCCURRING AMIDST AN EXPANDING ACCAS FIELD WELL AHEAD OF THE MCV AND
OUTFLOW FROM CNTRL KS TO WRN/CNTRL OK. WEAK POST-OUTFLOW CONVECTION
WAS PERSISTING OVER NERN CO AND SRN NEB.
THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT ACROSS MT/WY. THIS IMPULSE
WILL LIKELY ACT TO REINFORCE OR SUSTAIN DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AND
STRENGTHENING SHEAR ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT.
HEATING/MIXING WILL ELIMINATE WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE
RISK AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SFC-BASED STORMS LIKELY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS BENEATH 7-8 C/KM
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG.
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN
30-50 KT NNWLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
INITIALLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST AND
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
TO DAMAGING WINDS. HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER RH ARE
LIMITED BY LACK OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE RESPECTIVELY
AND THESE FACTORS MAY LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...IF
CONVECTION CAN REMAIN AT LEAST SEMI-DISCRETE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO. IN ADDITION TO INITIAL RISK FOR DAMAGING SUPERCELL
GUSTS...SOME CHANCE EXISTS FOR UPSCALE/MCS ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT.
LATEST STORM SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN
QUITE LIMITED AND PROBABLY FOCUSED FROM SRN KS TO NRN OK DURING THE
LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
...NRN FL/SRN GA...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM WRN FL PNHDL ACROSS SRN GA HAS BECOME
BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING DUE TO DENSE CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH
AND RESULTANT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. MLCAPE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY CLIMBED TO AROUND 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF A CLUSTER
OF ROBUST CONVECTION SPREADING ENEWD FROM FL PNHDL/SWRN GA. A WEAK
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE
TROUGH...AND MODEST 25KT MID-LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STORM
ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE AND ACT TO ENHANCE LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
INCREASE ALONG SEA BREEZES ACROSS FL. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...A
CORRIDOR WITH A GREATER DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE OVER
PORTIONS OF NRN FL AND SRN GA INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUS...TSTM WIND
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INCREASED ACROSS THESE AREAS.
..CARBIN/BROYLES.. 08/15/2013
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SWODY1
SPC AC 151630
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
VALID 151630Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN
PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHEAST
FL...
...WRN TO CNTRL KS SOUTH TO TX/OK PNHDLS AND WRN OK...
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND STRENGTHENING NNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM FROM
MID/UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS PROCESS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAK LEE CYCLONE RIPPLING SSEWD ALONG/NEAR
SFC/THERMAL TROUGH AXIS FROM ERN CO TO TX PNHDL BY FRIDAY MORNING.
MORNING WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS DEPICT AT LEAST TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL ACT TO ENHANCE ASCENT ACROSS KS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE FIRST...A MCV ASSOCIATED
WITH LOOSELY ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT MCS...WAS MOVING INTO NRN KS LATE
THIS MORNING. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MCS EXTENDED FROM
E-CNTRL KS WWD/NWWD TO NERN CO. NEW ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS
OCCURRING AMIDST AN EXPANDING ACCAS FIELD WELL AHEAD OF THE MCV AND
OUTFLOW FROM CNTRL KS TO WRN/CNTRL OK. WEAK POST-OUTFLOW CONVECTION
WAS PERSISTING OVER NERN CO AND SRN NEB.
THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT ACROSS MT/WY. THIS IMPULSE
WILL LIKELY ACT TO REINFORCE OR SUSTAIN DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AND
STRENGTHENING SHEAR ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT.
HEATING/MIXING WILL ELIMINATE WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE
RISK AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SFC-BASED STORMS LIKELY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS BENEATH 7-8 C/KM
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG.
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN
30-50 KT NNWLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
INITIALLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST AND
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
TO DAMAGING WINDS. HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER RH ARE
LIMITED BY LACK OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE RESPECTIVELY
AND THESE FACTORS MAY LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...IF
CONVECTION CAN REMAIN AT LEAST SEMI-DISCRETE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO. IN ADDITION TO INITIAL RISK FOR DAMAGING SUPERCELL
GUSTS...SOME CHANCE EXISTS FOR UPSCALE/MCS ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT.
LATEST STORM SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN
QUITE LIMITED AND PROBABLY FOCUSED FROM SRN KS TO NRN OK DURING THE
LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
...NRN FL/SRN GA...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM WRN FL PNHDL ACROSS SRN GA HAS BECOME
BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING DUE TO DENSE CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH
AND RESULTANT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. MLCAPE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY CLIMBED TO AROUND 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF A CLUSTER
OF ROBUST CONVECTION SPREADING ENEWD FROM FL PNHDL/SWRN GA. A WEAK
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE
TROUGH...AND MODEST 25KT MID-LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STORM
ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE AND ACT TO ENHANCE LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
INCREASE ALONG SEA BREEZES ACROSS FL. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...A
CORRIDOR WITH A GREATER DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE OVER
PORTIONS OF NRN FL AND SRN GA INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUS...TSTM WIND
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INCREASED ACROSS THESE AREAS.
..CARBIN/BROYLES.. 08/15/2013
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KCHS [151631]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KCHS 151631
LSRCHS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1230 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1140 AM FLASH FLOOD CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
08/15/2013 CHARLESTON SC EMERGENCY MNGR
EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED SEVERAL STREETS CLOSED IN
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON DUE TO FLOODING. A FEW OF THESE
INTERSECTIONS INCLUDE...HAGOOD AVENUE AND FISHBURNE
STREET...PRESIDENT STREET TO LINE STREET AND
CROSSTOWN...ASHLEY AVENUE AND BENNETT STREET...KING
STREET AND HUGER STREET.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CHS1300798
$$
TIMTE
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LSRCHS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1230 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1140 AM FLASH FLOOD CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
08/15/2013 CHARLESTON SC EMERGENCY MNGR
EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED SEVERAL STREETS CLOSED IN
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON DUE TO FLOODING. A FEW OF THESE
INTERSECTIONS INCLUDE...HAGOOD AVENUE AND FISHBURNE
STREET...PRESIDENT STREET TO LINE STREET AND
CROSSTOWN...ASHLEY AVENUE AND BENNETT STREET...KING
STREET AND HUGER STREET.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CHS1300798
$$
TIMTE
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KOAX [151545]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KOAX 151545
LSROAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1045 AM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1000 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 N CRETE 40.68N 96.96W
08/15/2013 M2.00 INCH SALINE NE COCORAHS
FELL BETWEEN 0845 AND 1000 TODAY
&&
$$
J-E.KLISH
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LSROAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1045 AM CDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1000 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 N CRETE 40.68N 96.96W
08/15/2013 M2.00 INCH SALINE NE COCORAHS
FELL BETWEEN 0845 AND 1000 TODAY
&&
$$
J-E.KLISH
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KPUB [151503]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KPUB 151503
LSRPUB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
903 AM MDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0801 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 WSW FALCON 38.91N 104.71W
08/14/2013 M1.06 INCH EL PASO CO PUBLIC
FELL IN 30 MINUTES.
&&
$$
PJC
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LSRPUB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
903 AM MDT THU AUG 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0801 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 WSW FALCON 38.91N 104.71W
08/14/2013 M1.06 INCH EL PASO CO PUBLIC
FELL IN 30 MINUTES.
&&
$$
PJC
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