MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1722

ACUS11 KWNS 151951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151950
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-152115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1722
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS...WRN OK...ERN TX PANHANDLE...NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 151950Z - 152115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM SRN KS SWD
ACROSS OK...THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO NW TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE
INTENSE CELLS. WW ISSUANCE COULD BECOME NECESSARY ONCE IT CAN BE
DETERMINED WHERE THE CELL COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS ACROSS
WCNTRL OK WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F. MLCAPE ON THE WRN EDGE OF
THE MOIST CORRIDOR FROM WRN OK NWD INTO SW KS IS ESTIMATED FROM 1500
TO 2500 J/KG WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING A FIELD OF CUMULUS
ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...A
FEW CELLS HAVE INITIATED IN NW OK AND IN NW TX ALONG THE MOIST AXIS
WHERE THE AIRMASS IS UNCAPPED. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO INITIATE
FURTHER TO THE WEST AS SFC TEMPS APPROACH 90 F LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
IF A LARGER CLUSTER OF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE...THEN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE. THE LARGE HAIL THREAT WOULD PROBABLY BE
GREATEST WITH CELLS THAT INITIATE ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY
CORRIDOR DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A
WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD BE MOST PROMINENT WITH CELLS THAT CAN
ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AND MOVE SWD ALONG THE MOIST AXIS IN WRN OK.

..BROYLES/CARBIN.. 08/15/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 33069917 33089996 33440037 35170144 36210127 37350100
37760063 37889992 37799847 37609743 37409710 36729692
36099668 35559666 34919711 34479760 34029807 33399860
33209879 33069917

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