ACUS02 KWNS 030545
SWODY2
SPC AC 030544
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CST TUE FEB 02 2010
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPR LOW OVER NWRN MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL PHASE WITH THE NRN
STREAM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COMPOSITE TROUGH WILL THEN TRANSLATE E INTO
THE PLAINS/MS RVR VLY BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH A PARENT UPR LOW DIGGING SE
THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS.
AT THE SFC...THE WEAK LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE LWR TX COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DEVELOP ENE TOWARD THE CNTRL GULF COAST BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. A WRMFNT WILL LIFT NWD INTO THE NRN GULF
BASIN...WITH THE FRONT TRAILING OFF TO THE S OF FL ON ITS ERN
EXTENT.
...CNTRL GULF COASTAL REGION...
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CNTRL/WRN GULF BASIN AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING UPR TROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSPORT
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE NWD WITH MID 60S SFC DEW POINTS LIKELY JUST
OFFSHORE THE CNTRL GULF COAST BY THURSDAY AFTN. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THE WARM SECTOR WILL BLEED INLAND. PRIND
THAT MAGNITUDE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDS/PCPN AND REINFORCE THE WRMFNT PREVENTING SUBSTANTIAL
DESTABILIZATION INLAND.
CONVECTION/TSTMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE WRN GULF BASIN WILL ADVANCE
ENE ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST DURING THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
NRN EDGE BECOMING ELEVATED AT MORE NLY LATITUDES. MID-TROPOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE POOR AND MUCAPE WEAK OVER LAND
AREAS...REDUCING THE THREAT FOR ELEVATED SVR STORMS. COMPARATIVELY
ROBUST SFC-BASED STORMS WILL PROBABLY STAY JUST OFFSHORE...WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LINEAR MCS OVER THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO AMIDST
STRONGER INSTABILITY THURSDAY NIGHT.
..RACY.. 02/03/2010
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