KLZK [242000]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 242000
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
300 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0247 PM HAIL ALBERT PIKE RECREATION 34.37N 93.88W
10/24/2010 E1.00 INCH MONTGOMERY AR PUBLIC

&&

$$

227

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241958
SWODY1
SPC AC 241957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER OH/MID
MS VALLEYS SWD INTO CENTRAL/ERN TX...TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES...

...E TX INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH RESPECT TO INCREASING SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF NERN TX/ARKLATEX INTO SRN AR/NRN LA
WITH RECENT ISSUANCE OF TORNADO WATCH 707. THE SLIGHT RISK AND
SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED SWD AND SWWD 1-2 ROWS OF
COUNTIES ACROSS SERN TX INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX WHERE OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG. IN
ADDITION...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS INCREASING AS STRONGER MIDLEVEL
FLOW MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRACKING EWD ALONG THE RED RIVER TO CENTRAL TX. FORCING FOR ASCENT
ATTENDANT TO A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE
OZARKS REGION...AND ADDITIONAL FORCING WITH EWD MOVING SRN OK/TX
TROUGH WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING
ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

...SERN LA/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED ACROSS THIS REGION. GREATEST
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ZONES...SIMILAR TO THE CORRIDOR CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SERN LA
NNEWD THROUGH SRN TO ERN MS. ANOTHER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE
THAT SHOULD BE MONITORED...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE SERN LA IN A N-S ORIENTATION. AS LOW LEVELS
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH TONIGHT SUPPORTING
LOW LCLS...MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR BENEATH
STRENGTHENING SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WITH APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS WILL
FAVOR A RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY
SUSTAINED STORMS THAT REMAIN ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

...MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS...
SLIGHT RISK REMAINS ACROSS THIS AREA. AN APPARENT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY BE DEVELOPING OVER SERN-EAST CENTRAL MO /INVOF
UNO-FAM/...WITH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR RANGING FROM 30-40 KT. FORCING FOR ASCENT
ATTENDANT TO A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE OZARKS
REGION AT THIS TIME MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT IN SUPPORTING TSTM
DEVELOPMENT YET THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FROM SERN MO TO
PARTS OF IL.

..PETERS.. 10/24/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010/

...ERN TX INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...

WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER WRN TX THIS MORNING WILL
INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD WHILE PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH
THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL GULF STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ATTENDED BY A CORRIDOR OF MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND A 50+ KT MIDLEVEL
JET STREAK WITH A COUPLED UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE ENHANCING
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SITUATED ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR WHICH WILL LIKEWISE MOVE EWD...LIKELY SERVING AS THE FOCUS
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF ERN TX THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST...AS WELL AS
ALONG BANDS OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR
OVER PARTS OF LA/MS/AR.

SUSTAINED SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF MIDLEVEL IMPULSE WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER NWD THROUGH
THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 F. WHEN COUPLED
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AFTERNOON ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500-2500 J/KG FROM THE
ARKLATEX SWWD INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY...AND 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS
REMAINDER OF EXPANDING WARM SECTOR.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BULK OF WARM SECTOR WILL RESIDE
ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LLJ
CORE THAT WILL GENERALLY EXTEND FROM AR NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELD ACCOMPANYING
ABOVE-MENTIONED VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL YIELD 40-50 KT OF DEEP WSWLY
SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
AND BOWING STRUCTURES. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WITH THE GREATEST HAIL THREAT
LIKELY DEVELOPING OVER ERN TX WHERE THE GREATEST AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED.

REFORMATION OF A 30-40 KT LLJ IS FORECAST OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
INTO CNTRL GULF STATES OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED
MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. GIVEN THE ASSOCIATED
STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...A RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH ANY SUSTAINED STORMS THAT CAN
REMAIN ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

...MID MS/OH VALLEY...

IN THE WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING NEWD THROUGH
IL/IND...UPSTREAM VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE MID MO VALLEY WILL
PROGRESS EWD TODAY IN TANDEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. AS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS SECTION...THE BELT OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN FOCUSED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...HASTENING THE NWD/NEWD
FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. WHILE GENERALLY
WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE DEGREE OF AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION...DAYTIME HEATING TO THE W OF ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTER
OVER IND...AND E OF MORE WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER IA/MO WILL YIELD A
CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE APPROACHING
1000 J/KG.

FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN INSTABILITY
AXIS FROM PARTS OF SERN MO INTO CNTRL/SRN IL. GIVEN THE MODERATELY
STRONG SWLY WIND FIELD...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW
ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO.

...PACIFIC NW...

A POWERFUL 100+ KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK NOW MOVING ONTO THE COAST
WILL DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND GREAT BASIN. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE THAT AN AXIS OF WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TODAY
ALONG THE COAST WITHIN MOIST...ONSHORE FLOW REGIME. GIVEN THE
EXTREMELY STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD AND RESULTING POTENTIAL FOR
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER...A RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL EXIST WITH ANY MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT CAN DEVELOP
AND BECOME SUSTAINED.

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KREV [241952]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KREV 241952
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1252 PM PDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 NE INCLINE VILLAGE 39.31N 119.88W
10/24/2010 M126 MPH WASHOE NV MESONET

MEASURED AT SLIDE MOUNTAIN ELEVATION 9650 FT.

0626 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NNW VIRGINIA CITY 39.36N 119.67W
10/24/2010 M60.00 MPH WASHOE NV MESONET

MEASURED BY NDOT SITE AT FIVE MILE FLAT ALONG HIGHWAY
341.

0700 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 WNW TAHOE CITY 39.21N 120.26W
10/24/2010 M132 MPH PLACER CA MESONET

MEASURED AT SQUAW PEAK AT 8700 FEET.

0710 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 S WASHOE CITY 39.28N 119.81W
10/24/2010 M79.00 MPH WASHOE NV MESONET

MEASURED AT THE WASHOE VALLEY NDOT STATION.

0727 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WSW GARDNERVILLE 38.91N 119.83W
10/24/2010 M62.00 MPH DOUGLAS NV TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND GUST OF 62 MPH.

0754 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 WSW PROSSER CREEK RES 39.34N 120.25W
10/24/2010 M1.15 INCH NEVADA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL SINCE 530 PM YESTERDAY.

0754 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 S WASHOE CITY 39.28N 119.81W
10/24/2010 WASHOE NV NWS EMPLOYEE

TRACTOR TRAILER BLOWN OVER IN WASHOE VALLEY.

0903 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 ENE CISCO 39.32N 120.45W
10/24/2010 M3.05 INCH NEVADA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL. 3.73 INCHES SINCE 9 AM 10/23.

0945 AM NON-TSTM WND GST SUTCLIFFE 39.95N 119.60W
10/24/2010 M71.00 MPH WASHOE NV MESONET

PEAK WIND GUST AT PYRAMID LAKE FISHERIES

1005 AM HEAVY RAIN MAMMOTH LAKES 37.64N 118.96W
10/24/2010 M0.64 INCH MONO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL. 0.45 INCHES SINCE MIDNIGHT.

1100 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SE HOMEWOOD 39.07N 120.15W
10/24/2010 M1.25 INCH PLACER CA TRAINED SPOTTER

1.25 INCHES RAIN IN APPROXIMATELY 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY
STRONG WINDS WITH HEAVY RAIN.

1103 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 S RENO 39.38N 119.82W
10/24/2010 M76.00 MPH WASHOE NV MESONET

PEAK WIND GUST AT GALENA RAWS AT BASE OF MT ROSE HIGHWAY.

1110 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NNE HOMEWOOD 39.09N 120.16W
10/24/2010 U0.00 INCH PLACER CA TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN, STRONG WINDS. SOME RESIDENTIAL STREETS
FLOODING NEAR EDGES DUE TO CULVERS FULL OF PINE NEEDLES
AND LEAVES. TREE BLOWN OVER DUE TO HIGH WINDS.

1119 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 E ALPINE MEADOWS 39.18N 120.14W
10/24/2010 M2.64 INCH PLACER CA TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HOUR RAINFALL FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM SUNDAY.

RAINFALL INTENSITY 0.4 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIME OF REPORT.

1120 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 S RENO 39.42N 119.82W
10/24/2010 M57.00 MPH WASHOE NV MESONET

PEAK GUST AT WOLF RUN GOLF COURSE

1122 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SSW RENO 39.49N 119.85W
10/24/2010 M61.00 MPH WASHOE NV MESONET

1145 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 SW NIXON 39.76N 119.45W
10/24/2010 E110 MPH WASHOE NV OFFICIAL NWS OBS

PEAK WIND GUST SO FAR TODAY AT NWS RENO RADAR SITE ON
VIRGINIA PEAK.

1153 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SSW SUSANVILLE 40.33N 120.60W
10/24/2010 M0.62 INCH LASSEN CA TRAINED SPOTTER

0.62 INCHES RAIN WITHIN 4 HOURS, FROM 8 AM TO 1145 AM.
TOTAL RAINFALL SINCE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IS 1.72 INCHES.
SMALL BRANCHES BROKEN OFF TREES.

1200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 W MAMMOTH LAKES 37.65N 119.04W
10/24/2010 M69.00 MPH MONO CA MESONET

MEASURED AT THE MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN MAIN LODGE

1211 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SSW SWEETWATER SUMMIT 38.51N 119.21W
10/24/2010 M78.00 MPH LYON NV MESONET

MEASURED AT NDOT SITE ON HIGHWAY 338

1230 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 NNE CEDARVILLE 41.58N 120.15W
10/24/2010 M0.67 INCH MODOC CA TRAINED SPOTTER

0.67 INCHES RAIN PAST 5 HOURS, FROM 7 AM TO 1215 PM.
TOTAL RAINFALL PAST 36 HOURS IS 1.28 INCHES. CURRENT TEMP
IS 51F, WINDS DOWN TO 10-15 MPH WITH MODERATE RAIN. LOCAL
SMALL STREAMS THAT HAVE BEEN DRY ARE NOW FLOWING.

&&

$$

JKIELHOR

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KSHV [241951]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 241951
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
251 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0228 PM HAIL 2 NE NASHVILLE 33.96N 93.83W
10/24/2010 E0.50 INCH HOWARD AR EMERGENCY MNGR

DIME SIZE HAIL ALONG THE PIKE/HOWARD COUNTY LINE ON HWY
27.

&&

$$

CS

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KFWD [241935]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 241935
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
235 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0225 PM HAIL PICKTON 33.03N 95.38W
10/24/2010 E0.75 INCH HOPKINS TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

MARBLE TO PENNY HAIL REPORTED NEAR PICKTON

$$

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KSHV [241917]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 241917
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
217 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0212 PM HAIL YANTIS 32.93N 95.57W
10/24/2010 M1.00 INCH WOOD TX PUBLIC

QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT THE DOLLAR GENERAL.

&&

$$

CS

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KLBF [241911]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 241911
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
211 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 PM HEAVY RAIN LYNCH 42.83N 98.47W
10/24/2010 M1.85 INCH BOYD NE CO-OP OBSERVER

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL.

&&

$$

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KFWD [241909]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 241909
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
209 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM HAIL SULPHUR SPRINGS 33.13N 95.60W
10/24/2010 E1.00 INCH HOPKINS TX PUBLIC

QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON I-30 NEAR MILE MARKER 125

$$

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KFWD [241902]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 241902
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
201 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0148 PM HAIL EMORY 32.87N 95.75W
10/24/2010 E1.00 INCH RAINS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

QUARTER SIZE HAIL 5 MILES NE OF THE INTERSECTION OF US
HWY69 AND STATE HWY 19

$$

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 707

WWUS20 KWNS 241854
SEL7
SPC WW 241854
ARZ000-LAZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-250300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 707
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
PINE BLUFF ARKANSAS TO 65 MILES SOUTH OF LONGVIEW TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE ZONES OF TSTM GENESIS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON...1) ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER ERN TX...AND 2) WITHIN
FREE-WARM SECTOR ALONG ENHANCED BANDS OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE. THE
AMBIENT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 F. WHEN
COUPLED WITH STRONG DIABATIC HEATING AND STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES FROM THE W...ENVIRONMENT IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 40-50 KT
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND STEADILY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
/I.E. MASS RESPONSE TO APPROACHING VORTICITY MAXIMUM/...SETUP WILL
FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.

...MEAD

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KMFR [241845]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 241845
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1145 AM PDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SE HARBOR 42.00N 124.20W
10/24/2010 M2.00 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SINCE SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL
0.97 INCHES FELL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

1000 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 WNW MEDFORD 42.36N 122.89W
10/24/2010 M1.00 INCH JACKSON OR TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL RAINFALL WITH HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WIND GUST TO 32 MPH AT 928 AM PDT SUNDAY.

1000 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNW SITKUM 43.18N 123.87W
10/24/2010 M2.20 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL. 1.10 INCHES FELL FROM 10AM TO 10PM
SATURDAY. 1.10 INCHES FELL FROM 10PM SATURDAY NIGHT TO
10AM THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

WOODHEAD

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KSEW [241830]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 241830
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1130 AM PDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 SW BRINNON 47.65N 122.94W
10/24/2010 M2.19 INCH JEFFERSON WA TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 730 AM THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

GRUB

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KSHV [241828]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KSHV 241828
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
128 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1045 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NW JACKSONVILLE 31.98N 95.27W
10/23/2010 CHEROKEE TX BROADCAST MEDIA

A METAL ROOF WAS BLOWN OFF A HOUSE IN THE COMMUNITY OF
COVE SPRINGS ALONG CR 3406 NORTHWEST OF JACKSONVILLE.

&&

$$

MBERRY

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1976

ACUS11 KWNS 241751
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241751
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-241915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1976
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX...NWRN LA...SRN AR...SE OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241751Z - 241915Z

IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO.

LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARE WEAK...
SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR...BUT THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS BECOMING
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITHIN A BROADLY CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME
EAST OF A WEAK/DIFFUSE DRY LINE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. AS
MID-LEVEL INHIBITION WEAKENS WITH CONTINUED SURFACE
HEATING...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS SLOWLY DEEPENING WITHIN BANDS
ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
PERHAPS AIDED BY MID-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE TURNING EASTWARD INTO A THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...SCATTERED SUSTAINED DISCRETE STORMS ALREADY APPEAR TO BE
FORMING IN THE PRESENCE OF MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000
J/KG...AND MODERATELY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 40 KT WESTERLY
500 MB FLOW. A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO THROUGH THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME... INCLUDING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR
PROBABLY WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MODEST...BUT THE RISK FOR A TORNADO
MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE.

..KERR.. 10/24/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 31509650 32979588 34259442 34909186 34579087 33059179
31649292 30699447 30339663 31509650

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KMFR [241736]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 241736
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1036 AM PDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSE ASHLAND 42.18N 122.69W
10/24/2010 M0.80 INCH JACKSON OR TRAINED SPOTTER

0.8 INCHES RAINFALL PAST 12 HOURS

&&

$$

KEENE

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KMFR [241735]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 241735
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1035 AM PDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 N COOS BAY 43.41N 124.22W
10/24/2010 M1.83 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

1.83 INCHES RAINFALL PAST 24 HOURS

&&

$$

KEENE

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 241730
SWODY2
SPC AC 241729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR SERN AL...GA AND
SC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
A VERY STRONG/POWERFUL UPPER JET CURRENTLY ARRIVING ACROSS ORE/NRN
CA WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS
TROUGH/LOW WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED AND SWING INTO THE MID/
UPPER MS VALLEY REGION MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A LOWER-AMPLITUDE
WAVE...NOW MOVING EWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS...MAY DAMPEN SOME AS IT
TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
12Z TUESDAY.

...ERN GULF COAST/SERN STATES...
GREATER DESTABILIZATION/INSTABILITY IS NOW EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SERN STATES...AND THUS A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO THIS
REGION.

STRONGER FORCING SHOULD MOVE PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
ON MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST UVVS SPREADING FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS
TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD. FORCING FOR ASCENT
WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 50-60 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL JET WILL
TRANSLATE THROUGH THE SERN STATES ON MONDAY. A COMPLEX OF TSTMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z MONDAY FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. UVVS WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MIDLEVEL JET SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT IN MAINTAINING
NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ERN/SRN PERIPHERIES OF THE
MORNING ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS EWD.

DESPITE A POTENTIAL FOR MINIMAL SURFACE HEATING DUE TO
CLOUDINESS...SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT MOISTENING BENEATH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WEAK CAPPING SUGGESTS TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY
PROGRESS EWD FROM THE ONGOING MORNING ACTIVITY...WITH THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON DURING MAX
DESTABILIZATION. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 35-40 KT WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORMS WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE.

...NERN MO/ERN IA/SERN MN/SWRN WI/WRN/NWRN IL...
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE RAPID ATMOSPHERIC MASS ADJUSTMENTS
TAKING PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE STRONG UPPER JET SPREADS INTO THE
REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. 15 MB/12 HR SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS ARE SUGGESTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 26/00-12Z WITH 972 MB LOW
FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER EAST CENTRAL MN/NWRN WI BY 12Z TUESDAY.

WHILE THE LEAD WAVE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A TEMPORARY SWD
DISPLACEMENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...A LATE SURGE OF 50S AND 60S
DEWPOINTS WILL OCCUR INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. AS
STRONG DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE-TILT SYSTEM
SPREADS TO THE INSTABILITY AXIS...BANDS OF CONVECTION/TSTMS ARE
LIKELY TO EVOLVE MAINLY BY LATE MONDAY EVENING ALONG/W OF THE MS
RIVER FROM NRN AR NWD INTO MN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT VERY STRONG WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN
AND SET-UP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG A STRONGLY FORCED COLD FRONT. A ROGUE TORNADO
IS ALSO POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY FROM ERN IA/NWRN IL SWD WHERE 0-1KM
SHEAR WILL BE ABOVE 250 M2/S2 AND MUCAPE WILL BE GREATEST /AROUND
500 J PER KG/.

..PETERS.. 10/24/2010

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KMFR [241716]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 241716
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1015 AM PDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN SSW SHADY COVE 42.61N 122.82W
10/24/2010 M1.34 INCH JACKSON OR TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL SINCE 8PM LAST NIGHT.

&&

$$

WOODHEAD

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KREV [241706]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 241706
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1005 AM PDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0754 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 WSW PROSSER CREEK RES 39.34N 120.25W
10/24/2010 M1.15 INCH NEVADA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL SINCE 530 PM YESTERDAY.

0903 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 ENE CISCO 39.32N 120.45W
10/24/2010 M3.05 INCH NEVADA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL. 3.73 INCHES SINCE 9 AM 10/23.

1005 AM HEAVY RAIN MAMMOTH LAKES 37.64N 118.96W
10/24/2010 M0.64 INCH MONO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL. 0.45 INCHES SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

$$

BRONG

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KMFR [241629]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 241629
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
928 AM PDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 E KLAMATH FALLS 42.23N 121.72W
10/24/2010 M0.60 INCH KLAMATH OR TRAINED SPOTTER

0.6 INCHES PAST 12 HOURS

&&

$$

KEENE

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KMFR [241628]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 241628
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
928 AM PDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN ENE LAKESIDE 43.58N 124.17W
10/24/2010 M1.50 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

1.5 INCHES PAST 15 HOURS

&&

$$

KEENE

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KMFR [241623]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 241623
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
923 AM PDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0852 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SW WEED 41.37N 122.42W
10/24/2010 E5.97 INCH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER

5.97 IN 24 HOURS ENDING AT 0830 PDT.

0852 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SW WEED 41.37N 122.42W
10/24/2010 M5.97 INCH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER

5.97 INCHES IN 24 HOURS ENDING AT 0830 PDT. MOST HE HAS
EVER RECORDED IN 24 HOURS IN 30 YEARS.

&&

$$

STOCKTON

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241609
SWODY1
SPC AC 241608

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY SWD
INTO ERN TX...THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF STATES...

...ERN TX INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...

WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER WRN TX THIS MORNING WILL
INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD WHILE PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH
THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL GULF STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ATTENDED BY A CORRIDOR OF MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND A 50+ KT MIDLEVEL
JET STREAK WITH A COUPLED UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE ENHANCING
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SITUATED ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR WHICH WILL LIKEWISE MOVE EWD...LIKELY SERVING AS THE FOCUS
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF ERN TX THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST...AS WELL AS
ALONG BANDS OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR
OVER PARTS OF LA/MS/AR.

SUSTAINED SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF MIDLEVEL IMPULSE WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER NWD THROUGH
THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 F. WHEN COUPLED
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AFTERNOON ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500-2500 J/KG FROM THE
ARKLATEX SWWD INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY...AND 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS
REMAINDER OF EXPANDING WARM SECTOR.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BULK OF WARM SECTOR WILL RESIDE
ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LLJ
CORE THAT WILL GENERALLY EXTEND FROM AR NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELD ACCOMPANYING
ABOVE-MENTIONED VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL YIELD 40-50 KT OF DEEP WSWLY
SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
AND BOWING STRUCTURES. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WITH THE GREATEST HAIL THREAT
LIKELY DEVELOPING OVER ERN TX WHERE THE GREATEST AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED.

REFORMATION OF A 30-40 KT LLJ IS FORECAST OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
INTO CNTRL GULF STATES OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED
MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. GIVEN THE ASSOCIATED
STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...A RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH ANY SUSTAINED STORMS THAT CAN
REMAIN ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

...MID MS/OH VALLEY...

IN THE WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING NEWD THROUGH
IL/IND...UPSTREAM VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE MID MO VALLEY WILL
PROGRESS EWD TODAY IN TANDEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. AS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS SECTION...THE BELT OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN FOCUSED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...HASTENING THE NWD/NEWD
FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. WHILE GENERALLY
WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE DEGREE OF AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION...DAYTIME HEATING TO THE W OF ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTER
OVER IND...AND E OF MORE WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER IA/MO WILL YIELD A
CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE APPROACHING
1000 J/KG.

FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN INSTABILITY
AXIS FROM PARTS OF SERN MO INTO CNTRL/SRN IL. GIVEN THE MODERATELY
STRONG SWLY WIND FIELD...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW
ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO.

...PACIFIC NW...

A POWERFUL 100+ KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK NOW MOVING ONTO THE COAST
WILL DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND GREAT BASIN. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE THAT AN AXIS OF WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TODAY
ALONG THE COAST WITHIN MOIST...ONSHORE FLOW REGIME. GIVEN THE
EXTREMELY STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD AND RESULTING POTENTIAL FOR
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER...A RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL EXIST WITH ANY MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT CAN DEVELOP
AND BECOME SUSTAINED.

..MEAD/GUYER.. 10/24/2010

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KMFR [241559]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 241559
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
859 AM PDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0852 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNE SELMA 42.30N 123.59W
10/24/2010 M1.95 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

1.95 INCHES 24 HOUR RAINFALL

&&

$$

KEENE

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KMFR [241558]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 241558
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
858 AM PDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0852 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 N KENO 42.19N 121.91W
10/24/2010 M1.25 INCH KLAMATH OR TRAINED SPOTTER

1.25 INCHES PAST 12 HOURS.

&&

$$

KEENE

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KMFR [241557]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 241557
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
857 AM PDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0852 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSW ETNA 41.44N 122.90W
10/24/2010 M3.68 INCH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER

3.68 INCHES PAST 24 HOURS.

&&

$$

KEENE

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KLBF [241556]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 241556
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1056 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1025 PM HAIL 5 W BURWELL 41.78N 99.23W
10/23/2010 M0.50 INCH LOUP NE PUBLIC

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ALSO REPORTED.

&&

$$

CARMEL

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KLBF [241547]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 241547
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1047 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 PM HAIL 8 SW AMELIA 42.15N 99.07W
10/23/2010 M1.00 INCH HOLT NE PUBLIC

PEA TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL OCCURRED FROM 1030 PM CDT
THROUGH 1110 PM CDT...ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN.

&&

$$

CARMEL

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KLBF [241544]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 241544
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1044 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1035 PM HAIL 25 S AMELIA 41.87N 98.96W
10/23/2010 M0.88 INCH GARFIELD NE PUBLIC

NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

&&

$$

CARMEL

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KMFR [241541]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 241541
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
841 AM PDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0840 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNE SELMA 42.34N 123.57W
10/24/2010 M1.30 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

1.30 INCHES RAINFALL PAST 24 HOURS

&&

$$

KEENE

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KMFR [241539]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 241539
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
839 AM PDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0838 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SSW APPLEGATE 42.21N 123.19W
10/24/2010 M1.07 INCH JACKSON OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24-HOUR RAINFALL 1.07 INCHES

&&

$$

KEENE

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KMFR [241529]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 241529
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
829 AM PDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0828 AM HEAVY RAIN W DUNSMUIR 41.23N 122.27W
10/24/2010 M2.98 INCH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER

2.98 INCHES 24-HOUR RAINFALL 8AM UNTIL 8AM

&&

$$

KEENE

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KREV [241517]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 241517
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
817 AM PDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 NE INCLINE VILLAGE 39.31N 119.88W
10/24/2010 M126 MPH WASHOE NV MESONET

MEASURED AT SLIDE MOUNTAIN ELEVATION 9650 FT.

0700 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 WNW TAHOE CITY 39.21N 120.26W
10/24/2010 M132 MPH PLACER CA MESONET

MEASURED AT SQUAW PEAK AT 8700 FEET.

0710 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 S WASHOE CITY 39.28N 119.81W
10/24/2010 M79.00 MPH WASHOE NV MESONET

MEASURED AT THE WASHOE VALLEY NDOT STATION.

0727 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WSW GARDNERVILLE 38.91N 119.83W
10/24/2010 M62.00 MPH DOUGLAS NV TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND GUST OF 62 MPH.

0754 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 S WASHOE CITY 39.28N 119.81W
10/24/2010 WASHOE NV NWS EMPLOYEE

TRACTOR TRAILER BLOWN OVER IN WASHOE VALLEY.

&&

$$

SSNYDER

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KMFR [241459]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 241459
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
759 AM PDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 AM HEAVY RAIN 10 SSE SPRAGUE RIVER 42.32N 121.44W
10/24/2010 M0.91 INCH KLAMATH OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR AMOUNT ENDING AT 700 AM PDT. MOST FELL IN THE
LAST 12 HOURS.

0740 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSW OBRIEN 42.06N 123.71W
10/24/2010 M2.86 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR AMOUNT ENDING AT 700 AM PDT

0729 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SE CAVE JUNCTION 42.15N 123.62W
10/24/2010 M1.81 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

AMOUNT IN LAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT 600 AM PDT

&&

$$

SPILDE

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KMFR [241421]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 241421
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
721 AM PDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0624 AM HEAVY RAIN SSE GOLD BEACH 42.41N 124.42W
10/24/2010 M1.58 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR AMOUNT ENDING AT 6 AM PDT. ALSO MEASURED A WIND
GUST TO 51 MPH AT 1256 AM PDT.

0649 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NE VALLEY FALLS 42.36N 120.25W
10/24/2010 M62 MPH LAKE OR PUBLIC

PERSONAL WEATHER STATION MEASURED THE GUST AT 614 AM PDT.
SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WERE 46 MPH.

0654 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSW KENO 42.11N 121.93W
10/24/2010 M1.25 INCH KLAMATH OR TRAINED SPOTTER

AMOUNT IN LAST 24 HOURS

0654 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 SSW ROSEBURG 43.16N 123.39W
10/24/2010 M0.87 INCH DOUGLAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

AMOUNT IN LAST 24 HOURS

0703 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 S ETNA 41.37N 122.89W
10/24/2010 M2.30 INCH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER

AMOUNT IN LAST 24 HOURS

0714 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 WNW YREKA 41.73N 122.65W
10/24/2010 M1.81 INCH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER

AMOUNT IN LAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT 700 AM PDT

0718 AM HEAVY RAIN NE BROOKINGS 42.06N 124.29W
10/24/2010 M1.76 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

AMOUNT IN LAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT 700 AM PDT.

&&

$$

SPILDE

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KLBF [241414]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KLBF 241414
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
914 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN ONEILL 42.46N 98.65W
10/24/2010 M1.13 INCH HOLT NE AWOS

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 700 AM CDT TOTALED 1.13
INCHES AT THE ONEILL AIRPORT. THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
PRECIPITATION FELL BETWEEN 400 AM AND 500 AM CDT.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN BURWELL 41.78N 99.13W
10/24/2010 M1.26 INCH GARFIELD NE CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 700 AM CDT TOTALED 1.26
INCHES IN BURWELL.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 18 NNE ONEILL 42.70N 98.51W
10/24/2010 M2.09 INCH HOLT NE MESONET

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTAL ENDING AT 700 AM CDT. VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED AROUND 130 AM CDT THIS MORNING.
REPORT WAS FURNISHED BY A NEBRASKA RAINFALL ASSESSMENT
AND INFORMATION NETWORK OBSERVER.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 10 SW MULLEN 41.94N 101.18W
10/24/2010 M0.94 INCH HOOKER NE MESONET

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTAL ENDING AT 700 AM CDT. REPORT
WAS FURNISHED BY A NEBRASKA RAINFALL ASSESSMENT AND
INFORMATION NETWORK OBSERVER.

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN CHAMBERS 42.21N 98.75W
10/24/2010 M1.32 INCH HOLT NE CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 800 AM CDT WAS 1.32
INCHES.

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 WNW ERICSON 41.81N 98.79W
10/24/2010 M2.10 INCH GARFIELD NE CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTAL ENDING AT 800 AM CDT WAS 2.10
INCHES.

&&

$$

CARMEL

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KLBF [241411]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 241411
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
911 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 WNW ERICSON 41.81N 98.79W
10/24/2010 M2.10 INCH GARFIELD NE CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTAL ENDING AT 800 AM CDT WAS 2.10
INCHES.

&&

$$

CARMEL

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KSHV [241402]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 241402
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
902 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 PM TSTM WND DMG LONGVIEW 32.52N 94.76W
10/23/2010 GREGG TX NEWSPAPER

POWERLINES WERE DOWNED AT TEXAS HIGHWAY 31 AND LOOP 281.

&&

$$

MBERRY

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KSHV [241349]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 241349
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
849 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 PM LIGHTNING 2 NE LINDALE 32.53N 95.38W
10/23/2010 SMITH TX BROADCAST MEDIA

LIGHTNING RESULTED IN A HOUSE FIRE ON COUNTY ROAD 4104
NORTHEAST OF LINDALE. THE FIRE WAS CONTAINED TO ONE
BEDROOM. THERE WERE NO INJURIES REPORTED.

&&

$$

MBERRY

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KSHV [241336]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 241336
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
835 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NW JACKSONVILLE 31.98N 95.27W
10/23/2010 CHEROKEE TX BROADCAST MEDIA

A METAL ROOF WAS BLOWN OFF A HOUSE IN THE COMMUNITY OF
COVE SPRINGS ALONG CR 3406 NORTHWEST OF JACKSONVILLE.

0610 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 W TYLER 32.33N 95.32W
10/23/2010 SMITH TX BROADCAST MEDIA

SEVERAL PIECES OF AN OVERHANGING AWNING WERE BLOWN OFF A
PHARMACY BUILDING JUST WEST OF THE LOOP ALONG HWY 64.

&&

$$

MBERRY

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KLBF [241331]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 241331
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
831 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN CHAMBERS 42.21N 98.75W
10/24/2010 M1.32 INCH HOLT NE CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 800 AM CDT WAS 1.32
INCHES.

&&

$$

CARMEL

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KSTO [241323]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 241323
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
623 AM PDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SE SHASTA DAM 40.69N 122.39W
10/24/2010 M2.32 INCH SHASTA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

2.32 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED FROM MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM.

&&

$$

BB

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KOAX [241321]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 241321
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
821 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 SSW VERDEL 42.73N 98.24W
10/24/2010 M4.73 INCH KNOX NE CO-OP OBSERVER

MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FELL IN A 4 HOUR TIME PERIOD
FROM 0300 TO 0700.

&&

$$

J-E.KLISH

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KLBF [241303]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 241303
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
803 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 10 SW MULLEN 41.94N 101.18W
10/24/2010 M0.94 INCH HOOKER NE MESONET

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTAL ENDING AT 700 AM CDT. REPORT
WAS FURNISHED BY A NEBRASKA RAINFALL ASSESSMENT AND
INFORMATION NETWORK OBSERVER.

&&

$$

CARMEL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241301
SWODY1
SPC AC 241300

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL/E TX INTO PARTS OF
THE LWR AND MID MS AND TN VLYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN BROAD...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL
U.S...SATELLITE DATA SHOWS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AMPLIFYING SE ACROSS
ERN NM/W TX ATTM. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE ESE ACROSS CNTRL AND
E TX LATER TODAY...BEFORE TURNING E/NE ACROSS THE LWR MS/TN VLYS
TONIGHT/EARLY MON.

AT THE SFC...NW IA LOW SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ENE INTO WI WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED UPR VORT. WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT EXTENDING SSW
FROM THE LOW INTO THE SRN PLNS WILL ADVANCE E/SE ACROSS THE ERN
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS AND THE MID MS VLY...PRECEDED BY A
N/S CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER E TX/LA.

...E TX INTO LWR MS/TN VLYS/GULF CST...
PERSISTENT LOW LVL SLY FLOW AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE RETURN ALREADY IN PROGRESS ACROSS E TX AND
THE LWR MS VLY TODAY...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S F
EXPECTED OVER REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY.

LOW LVL CONVERGENCE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...MOST LIKELY FOCUSED ALONG
AFOREMENTIONED WIND SHIFT LINE...ALONG E TX/LA AXIS OF
CONFLUENCE...AND/OR ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAY'S
MCS. BUT COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING AND MID LVL COOLING/ASCENT WITH
UPR IMPULSE EXPECTED TO YIELD FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY /SBCAPE
AOA 2000 J PER KG/...SUPPORTING ISOLD TO SCTD SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
FROM E CNTRL TX NEWD INTO PARTS OF AR/LA BY LATE IN THE DAY. ISOLD
STORMS ALSO MAY FORM ALONG THE CNTRL GULF CST...NEAR SHALLOW WARM
FRONTAL SEGMENT/ MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND SPREAD E/NE ACROSS THE GULF CST STATES AND LWR MS/TN
VLYS TONIGHT/EARLY MON AS UPR TROUGH CONTINUES NEWD AND LOW LVL FLOW
STRENGTHENS/VEERS ACROSS REGION.

STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...INCREASINGLY RICH MOISTURE...AND LIKELY
SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE GIVEN 40-50 KT DEEP SHEAR TOGETHER SUGGEST
GOOD CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER E TX AND THE ARKLATEX.
TORNADOES AND SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND ALSO WILL BE
POSSIBLE. DESPITE LOW LVL STABILIZATION AFTER SUNSET...IT APPEARS
THAT A SVR THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CNTRL GULF CST STATES/LWR TN VLY.

...MID MS VLY...
WEAKER LARGE SCALE ASCENT/INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ACROSS THE MID MS
VLY RELATIVE TO POINTS SOUTH. BUT AT LEAST ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD
STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTN OVER PARTS OF ERN MO...
CNTRL/NRN IL...AND POSSIBLY NW INDIANA...WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY
/SBCAPE AOA 500 J PER KG/ SHOULD DEVELOP BENEATH ERN FRINGE OF LARGE
SCALE UPR TROUGH. THESE COULD YIELD SVR HAIL...ISOLD DMGG WIND AND
A COUPLE TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

...PACIFIC NW...
POWERFUL /150+ KT/ WLY JET STREAK WILL SWEEP E ACROSS ORE TODAY AS
ASSOCIATED EXIT REGION OVERSPREADS NRN ORE/WA. COOLING ALOFT ON
POLEWARD SIDE OF JET...AND ASSOCIATED ASCENT/DEEP CYCLONIC UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT SCTD TSTMS NOT ONLY ALONG THE CST BUT E INTO THE
NRN GRT BASIN/NRN RCKYS. WITH SBCAPE APPROACHING 500 J/KG ALONG THE
ORE/WA CST AND THE LWR COLUMBIA RVR VLY...SETUP MAY YIELD BOWING
SEGMENTS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO
LATER TODAY.

..CORFIDI/GRAMS.. 10/24/2010

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KLBF [241253]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 241253
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
752 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 18 NNE ONEILL 42.70N 98.51W
10/24/2010 M2.09 INCH HOLT NE MESONET

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTAL ENDING AT 700 AM CDT. VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED AROUND 130 AM CDT THIS MORNING.
REPORT WAS FURNISHED BY A NEBRASKA RAINFALL ASSESSMENT
AND INFORMATION NETWORK OBSERVER.

&&

$$

CARMEL

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KLBF [241214]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 241214
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
714 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN BURWELL 41.78N 99.13W
10/24/2010 M1.26 INCH GARFIELD NE CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 700 AM CDT TOTALED 1.26
INCHES IN BURWELL.

&&

$$

CARMEL

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KLBF [241213]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 241213
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
713 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN ONEILL 42.46N 98.65W
10/24/2010 M1.13 INCH HOLT NE AWOS

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 700 AM CDT TOTALED 1.13
INCHES AT THE ONEILL AIRPORT. THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
PRECIPITATION FELL BETWEEN 400 AM AND 500 AM CDT.

&&

$$

CARMEL

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KJAX [241141]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 241141
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
741 AM EDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0739 AM WILDFIRE 4 SSE JUNIPER SPRINGS 29.12N 81.71W
10/24/2010 MARION FL PARK/FOREST SRVC

FOREST SERVICE REPORTS THE BOMBING RANGE NINE WILDFIRE IN
THE OCALA NATIONAL FOREST IS AT 2136 ACRES.

&&

$$

JHESS

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 240840
SWOD48
SPC AC 240839

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

VALID 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PROMINENT TROUGH THAT EVOLVES OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL TRANSLATE BODILY EWD...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF ENERGY
DIGGING INTO THE OZARKS/MID-MS VLY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN INTO THE NERN
STATES BY WEEK'S END. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY
TROUGH WHICH WILL INITIALLY STALL FROM THE OH VLY TO THE SRN PLAINS
WILL BECOME ENERGETIC AGAIN WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY BEFORE REACHING THE
SERN STATES AND NRN GULF BASIN BY THURSDAY-FRIDAY.

AS GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-WEEK TROUGH BRUSHES ACROSS MODEST
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT A COUPLE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE OVER THE OZARKS/MID-SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
BUT...COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL NOT JUSTIFY A MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
ARRIVAL/TIMING OF THE NEXT MOBILE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND.

..RACY.. 10/24/2010

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