SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241751
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-241915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1976
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX...NWRN LA...SRN AR...SE OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 241751Z - 241915Z
IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO.
LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARE WEAK...
SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR...BUT THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS BECOMING
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITHIN A BROADLY CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME
EAST OF A WEAK/DIFFUSE DRY LINE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. AS
MID-LEVEL INHIBITION WEAKENS WITH CONTINUED SURFACE
HEATING...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS SLOWLY DEEPENING WITHIN BANDS
ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
PERHAPS AIDED BY MID-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE TURNING EASTWARD INTO A THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...SCATTERED SUSTAINED DISCRETE STORMS ALREADY APPEAR TO BE
FORMING IN THE PRESENCE OF MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000
J/KG...AND MODERATELY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 40 KT WESTERLY
500 MB FLOW. A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO THROUGH THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME... INCLUDING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR
PROBABLY WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MODEST...BUT THE RISK FOR A TORNADO
MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE.
..KERR.. 10/24/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 31509650 32979588 34259442 34909186 34579087 33059179
31649292 30699447 30339663 31509650
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