MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2088

ACUS11 KWNS 010355
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010354
NDZ000-010530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2088
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 819...

VALID 010354Z - 010530Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 819
CONTINUES.

SEVERE TSTM WATCH 819 CONTINUES UNTIL 09Z...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS REMAINING POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL ND.

EARLIER SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS HAVE CONGEALED/GROWN UPSCALE OVER THE
PAST 1-2 HOURS...WITH A MODESTLY BROKEN NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED LINE OF
STORMS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ND ABOUT 50-60 MILES WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR AND MINOT/BISMARCK AREAS AS OF 0345Z. MEASURED SEVERE WIND
GUSTS OVER THE PAST HOUR INCLUDE 52 KT AT DICKINSON AND 53 KT AT
WILLISTON. WITH CONTINUED CELL MERGERS/ORGANIZATION ON THE
MESOSCALE...STRENGTHENING MID/HIGH LEVEL FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH
EASTERLY NEAR-SURFACE WINDS/WARM ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL CONTINUE A SCENARIO CONDUCIVE FOR WIND DAMAGE/BOUTS OF SEVERE
HAIL INTO CENTRAL ND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..GUYER.. 09/01/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 48630332 48950316 48950125 48799998 47619976 46680046
46290223 46460295 47410258 48130309 48630332

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KTWC [010343]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KTWC 010343
LSRTWC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
842 PM MST WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM TSTM WND DMG RIO RICO 31.47N 110.98W
08/31/2011 SANTA CRUZ AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

DOWNED TREES AND SOME POWER LINES DOWN IN RIO RICO
BETWEEN KM MARKERS 17 AND 22 ON I-19.

0545 PM TSTM WND DMG ORO VALLEY 32.42N 110.97W
08/31/2011 PIMA AZ PUBLIC

TREE UPROOTED NEAR W. MAGEE RD AND N. LA CANADA DR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1100098 TWC1100099

$$

MOLLERE

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KTWC [010342]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KTWC 010342
LSRTWC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
842 PM MST WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM TSTM WND DMG ORO VALLEY 32.42N 110.97W
08/31/2011 PIMA AZ PUBLIC

TREE UPROOTED NEAR W. MAGEE RD AND N. LA CANADA DR.

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER TWC1100099

$$

MOLLERE

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KBIS [010342]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 010342
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1042 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1020 PM HAIL NEW ENGLAND 46.54N 102.87W
08/31/2011 E1.00 INCH HETTINGER ND TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL LASTED UNTIL 925 PM CDT. ALSO HAD 40 MPH WINDS.

&&

$$

NHEINERT

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KBIS [010329]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 010329
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1028 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1026 PM TSTM WND GST TAYLOR 46.90N 102.43W
08/31/2011 M62 MPH STARK ND CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

ABELING

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KGGW [010328]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 010328
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
927 PM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM TSTM WND GST 12 SSE OPHEIM 48.70N 106.31W
08/31/2011 M70 MPH VALLEY MT CO-OP OBSERVER

WINDS WERE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 40 TO 60 MPH.

&&

$$

ASCHNETZ

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KBIS [010327]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 010327
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1027 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1004 PM TSTM WND GST DICKINSON REGIONAL AIRP 46.80N 102.79W
08/31/2011 M60 MPH STARK ND ASOS

&&

$$

NHEINERT

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KGGW [010314]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 010314
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
914 PM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0906 PM TSTM WND GST GLENDIVE 47.11N 104.71W
08/31/2011 M55.00 MPH DAWSON MT AWOS

DAWSON COUNTY AIRPORT

&&

$$

GREGF

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KBIS [010312]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 010312
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1012 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1007 PM TSTM WND GST SCRANTON 46.15N 103.14W
08/31/2011 M65 MPH BOWMAN ND MESONET

MESONET RELAYED BY EMERGENCY MANAGER

&&

$$

ABELING

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KBIS [010257]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 010257
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
957 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0951 PM TSTM WND GST BOWMAN 46.18N 103.39W
08/31/2011 E58 MPH BOWMAN ND MESONET

STATE AGENCY

&&

$$

ABELING

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KGGW [010252]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 010252
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
851 PM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0825 PM HAIL 5 S RESERVE 48.53N 104.46W
08/31/2011 E0.75 INCH SHERIDAN MT PUBLIC

PENNY SIZE HAIL WITH STRONG WINDS...BUT NO ESTIMATE ON
THE WIND SPEED.

&&

$$

MATTM

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KBIS [010249]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 010249
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
948 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0940 PM HAIL 3 N RHAME 46.28N 103.65W
08/31/2011 E1.75 INCH BOWMAN ND PUBLIC

RELAYED BY EMERGENCY MANAGER. ALSO GOLFBALL HAIL IN THE
CITY OF RHAME.

&&

$$

ABELING

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KBIS [010248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 010248
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
948 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0943 PM TSTM WND GST WILLISTON 48.15N 103.63W
08/31/2011 M61 MPH WILLIAMS ND ASOS

REPORT RELAYED BY WSO WILLISTON.

&&

$$

PAYD

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KTWC [010245]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTWC 010245
LSRTWC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
745 PM MST WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM TSTM WND DMG ORO VALLEY 32.42N 110.97W
08/31/2011 PIMA AZ PUBLIC

TREE UPROOTED NEAR MCGEE AND LA CANADA

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1100099

$$

MOLLERE

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KGGW [010245]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 010245
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
845 PM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0810 PM TSTM WND GST 7 ENE POPLAR 48.15N 105.06W
08/31/2011 M53 MPH ROOSEVELT MT MESONET

39 MPH WINDS WITH 53 MPH GUST.

&&

$$

MATTM

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KBIS [010243]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 010243
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
942 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0922 PM HAIL 5 W MARMARTH 46.29N 104.03W
08/31/2011 E1.75 INCH SLOPE ND PUBLIC

HAIL BROKE WINDOWS

&&

$$

ABELING

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KGGW [010242]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 010242
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
842 PM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0755 PM TSTM WND GST 1 NW SCOBEY 48.81N 105.44W
08/31/2011 M63 MPH DANIELS MT MESONET

31 MPH WINDS WITH 63 MPH GUST.

&&

$$

MATTM

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KBYZ [010241]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 010241
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
841 PM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0825 PM HAIL 13 SE BAKER 46.23N 104.08W
08/31/2011 E1.75 INCH FALLON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL BROKE A BEDROOM WINDOW. LOTS OF QUARTER-SIZED HAIL
AS WELL.

&&

$$

ARTHUR

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KGGW [010239]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 010239
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
839 PM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0744 PM TSTM WND GST 14 NNW HELL CREEK RECRE 47.80N 107.02W
08/31/2011 M55 MPH VALLEY MT MESONET

31 MPH WINDS WITH 55 MPH GUST

&&

$$

MATTM

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KGGW [010235]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 010235
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
835 PM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0753 PM TSTM WND GST WOLF POINT 48.09N 105.64W
08/31/2011 M58 MPH ROOSEVELT MT ASOS

44 MPH WINDS WITH 58 MPH GUST

&&

$$

MATTM

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KBYZ [010221]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 010221
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
821 PM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0805 PM TSTM WND GST 8 ESE WEBSTER 46.01N 104.10W
08/31/2011 M65.00 MPH FALLON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

ARTHUR

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KGGW [010217]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 010217
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
817 PM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0814 PM HAIL 1 E RESERVE 48.61N 104.44W
08/31/2011 E1.00 INCH SHERIDAN MT STORM CHASER

SPOTTER TRAVELLING NEAR THE BRUSH LAKE TURN-OFF OBSERVED
HAIL MIXED WITH HEAVY RAIN.

&&

$$

ASCHNETZ

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KKEY [010216]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 010216
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1016 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0901 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
08/31/2011 M41 MPH GMZ044 FL C-MAN STATION

SAND KEY LIGHT C-MAN STATION PLATFORM OBSERVATION
RECORDED A WIND GUST OF 36 KNOTS OR 41 MPH FROM THE SOUTH
FROM A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

$$

AALBANES

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KGGW [010158]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 010158
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
757 PM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 PM TSTM WND GST 17 WNW HOMESTEAD 48.50N 104.90W
08/31/2011 E70 MPH ROOSEVELT MT TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 70 MPH WIND GUST WITH A LITTLE PENNY HAIL.

&&

$$

MATTM

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 819

WWUS20 KWNS 010152
SEL9
SPC WW 010152
MTZ000-NDZ000-010900-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 819
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
855 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

FAR EASTERN MONTANA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 855 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF GLENDIVE MONTANA TO 55 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MINOT
NORTH DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...AIDED BY DPVA/INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...CLUSTERS OF
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE EVENING FROM FAR EASTERN MT INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL ND...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL UPSCALE GROWTH/ORGANIZATION POSSIBLE INTO AN MCS. A
RELATIVELY UNSTABLE/STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A
SUSTAINED SEVERE THREAT WITH DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23030.

...GUYER/THOMPSON

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KGGW [010144]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 010144
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
744 PM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 PM TSTM WND GST 10 SW POPLAR 48.03N 105.38W
08/31/2011 E80 MPH MCCONE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 70 TO 80 MPH WIND GUST WITH SLUSHY DIME HAIL.

&&

$$

MATTM

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KGGW [010139]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 010139
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
739 PM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM TSTM WND GST SSW OPHEIM 48.85N 106.41W
08/31/2011 E50 MPH VALLEY MT TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUST WITH PEA HAIL.

&&

$$

MATTM

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KGGW [010135]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 010135
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
735 PM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 PM TSTM WND GST 6 W ENID 47.68N 104.90W
08/31/2011 E60 MPH RICHLAND MT TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 55 TO 60 MPH WIND GUST WITH PEA HAIL.

&&

$$

MATTM

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KGGW [010126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 010126
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
726 PM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0713 PM TSTM WND GST 9 SSW LUSTRE 48.26N 105.93W
08/31/2011 M71 MPH VALLEY MT TRAINED SPOTTER

DIME AND NICKEL HAIL WITH A 71 MPH WIND GUST

&&

$$

MATTM

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2087

ACUS11 KWNS 010124
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010124
NDZ000-MTZ000-010230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2087
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0824 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN MT TO ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 010124Z - 010230Z

SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT WILL LIKELY SPREAD EASTWARD FROM FAR EASTERN
MT INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL ND THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. CONTINUED
INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS/UPSCALE GROWTH MAY PROMPT A SEVERE TSTM
WATCH ISSUANCE.

STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY EARLY
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITHIN A NEAR/POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL MT...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MT INTO
WESTERN ND. THE 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM GLASGOW MT...WITHIN A
NEAR/IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...REFLECTED STEEP
LAPSE RATES/2000 J PER KG MUCAPE AMID VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /55
KT 0-6 KM/ IN THE PRESENCE OF CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES. WITH DPVA/WARM ADVECTION CONTRIBUTING TO ADDITIONAL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT...CONTINUED CELL MERGERS/UPSCALE GROWTH WITHIN A
HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD STORMS CAPABLE OF
SEVERE HAIL/WIND THROUGH THE EVENING.

..GUYER.. 09/01/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

LAT...LON 48800527 48990173 48629998 47220021 46680501 48800527

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KGGW [010119]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 010119
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
719 PM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0646 PM TSTM WND GST 8 SW BREDETTE 48.43N 105.44W
08/31/2011 M51 MPH ROOSEVELT MT MESONET

47 MPH WINDS WITH 51 MPH GUST

&&

$$

MATTM

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KGGW [010115]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 010115
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
715 PM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0651 PM TSTM WND GST 2 E FORT PECK 48.01N 106.40W
08/31/2011 M66 MPH MCCONE MT MESONET

52 MPH WINDS WITH 66 MPH GUST

&&

$$

MATTM

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KKEY [010113]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 010113
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
913 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0859 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
08/31/2011 M39 MPH GMZ044 FL C-MAN STATION

THE SAND KEY LIGHT C-MAN STATION RECORDED A 34-KNOT WIND
GUST OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 859PM LOCAL AS AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PASSED THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

$$

ULRICH

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 010059
SWODY1
SPC AC 010058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2011

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS MT-ND...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-AIR PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED BY INTENSE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER SRN PLAINS...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WWD TO NRN BAJA...EWD
ACROSS GA...AND NNEWD ACROSS MN. SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH...WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES...IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
FROM NRN AB SWWD ACROSS CANADIAN ROCKIES TO INTERIOR PAC NW AND NRN
CA. THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE POSITIVELY TILTED OVERNIGHT AS NRN
PORTION MOVES EWD ALONG CANADIAN BORDER TO NWRN MT.

AT SFC...CYCLONE ANALYZED AT 23Z OVER SERN MT...IS EXPECTED TO FILL
SOMEWHAT AND LIFT NEWD TOWARD ERN ND...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVES SEWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL SD AND NERN/E-CENTRAL WY.
QUASISTATIONARY FRONT...INITIALLY ANALYZED FROM LOW NEWD ACROSS NERN
MT TO SERN SK...SHOULD START MOVING EWD IN STEP WITH ZONAL COMPONENT
OF CYCLONE MOTION THROUGH EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DOUBLE-STRUCTURED
WARM FRONTAL ZONE WAS ANALYZED...PRIMARY BOUNDARY INTERSECTING
QUASISTATIONARY FRONT OVER E-CENTRAL MT NE OF SFC LOW...AND
EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS SWRN ND AND CENTRAL SD. SECONDARY WARM FRONT
WAS DRAWN FROM N-CENTRAL ND SEWD OVER NERN SD AND S-CENTRAL MN.
BOTH WARM FRONTAL ZONES SHOULD MOVE NEWD OVERNIGHT...SRN ONE
SOMEWHAT FASTER AND REACHING S-CENTRAL ND AND SWRN MN BY ABOUT 12Z.

...MT-ND...
SVR POTENTIAL THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL ARISE
FROM SOME BLEND OF TWO REGIMES...
1. POST COLD-FRONTAL TSTMS ACROSS MT THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
NEWD ACROSS ERN MT BEHIND FRONT...WITH OCNL POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
AND STG-SVR GUSTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SUSTAINED BY COMBINATION
OF MOIST TRAJECTORIES FROM NELY DIRECTION...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
ABOVE FRONTAL ZONE...PER GGW RAOB MODIFIED FOR NEARBY POSTFRONTAL
CONDITIONS.
2. TSTMS OVER SERN MT..WHETHER THOSE CURRENTLY CROSSING INTO WARM
SECTOR FROM BEHIND FRONTAL ZONE OR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR WARM
FRONT...MOVING NEWD OVER WRN ND...ALSO WITH RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.
WIND THREAT WILL DEPEND ON ORGANIZATION OF AGGREGATE COLD POOL
BEFORE ACTIVITY CROSSES OVER SUFFICIENTLY DEEP LAYER OF SFC-BASED
STATIC STABILITY NE OF PRIMARY WARM FRONT.

UPSCALE GROWTH AND INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUTLOOK AREA FROM EITHER OF THESE SOURCES...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NE
OF QUASISTATIONARY AND WARM FRONTS WHERE ELEVATED LLJ AND RELATED
WAA WILL FOCUS ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

...REMAINDER CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...
FARTHER S...SVR POTENTIAL IS MORE CONDITIONAL AND ISOLATED...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/GUSTS RELATED TO EITHER
1. HIGH-BASED TSTMS ABOVE HOT/WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD AIR MASS FOR 2-3
MORE HOURS...NOW MOVING NEWD OUT OF WRN NEB AND
2. HAIL-PRODUCING DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NE OF SFC WARM FRONT OVER
ERN SD...WHERE LARGE BUOYANCY WILL EXIST ATOP INVERSION SERVING AS
BASE OF EML.

..EDWARDS.. 09/01/2011

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KGGW [010044]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 010044
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
644 PM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0641 PM TSTM WND GST GLASGOW 48.20N 106.64W
08/31/2011 M61 MPH VALLEY MT ASOS

SUSTAINED 45 MPH WITH 61 MPH GUST

&&

$$

MATTM

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KTBW [312322]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KTBW 312322
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
722 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0715 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 4 NNE LUTZ 28.19N 82.44W
08/31/2011 PASCO FL TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED A SMALL FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF COLLIER RD AND SR 56 IN PASCO COUNTY.

&&

$$

TBARRON

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KKEY [312320]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 312320
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
720 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0650 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
08/31/2011 M41 MPH GMZ044 FL C-MAN STATION

THE SAND KEY LIGHT C-MAN STATION RECORDED A WIND GUST TO
36 KNOTS AT 650PM AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PASSED THROUGH
THE AREA.

&&

$$

ULRICH

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KTBW [312318]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 312318
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
718 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0716 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 4 NNE LUTZ 28.19N 82.44W
08/30/2011 PASCO FL TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED A SMALL FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF COLLIER RD AND SR 56 IN PASCO COUNTY.

&&

$$

TBARRON

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KTFX [312239]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 312239
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
438 PM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0358 PM TSTM WND GST GEYSER 47.27N 110.49W
08/31/2011 M50 MPH JUDITH BASIN MT MESONET

50 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF GEYSER.

&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTWC [312218]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTWC 312218
LSRTWC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
318 PM MST WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM TSTM WND DMG RIO RICO 31.47N 110.98W
08/31/2011 SANTA CRUZ AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

DOWNED TREES AND SOME POWER LINES DOWN IN RIO RICO
BETWEEN KM MARKERS 17 AND 22 ON I-19.

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1100098

$$

GL

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KTFX [312205]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 312205
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
405 PM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0355 PM HAIL CHECKERBOARD 46.57N 110.55W
08/31/2011 E0.25 INCH MEAGHER MT PUBLIC

PEA SIZE HAIL FALLING IN THE CHECKERBOARD AREA.

&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [312141]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 312141
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
340 PM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM HAIL 4 WNW EAST HELENA 46.61N 112.00W
08/31/2011 M0.50 INCH LEWIS AND CLARK MT TRAINED SPOTTER

HALF-INCH DIAMETER HAIL. NO RAIN AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

$$

MLS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2086

ACUS11 KWNS 312021
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312020
MTZ000-312215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2086
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN INTO E CNTRL MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 312020Z - 312215Z

STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH SEVERE WIND AND MARGINAL HAIL POSSIBLE. A WW COULD BE
NEEDED.

VIS IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOW STORMS INCREASING ACROSS SWRN MT AND NWRN
WY...IN A ZONE OF SWLY UPSLOPE FLOW...AND ALSO WHERE COOLING ALOFT
CONTINUES. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S HAS GIVEN WAY TO
MUCAPE TO ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG.

WITH CONTINUED HEATING...AND LIFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WHERE CIN IS BEING ERODE BY DIFFERENTIAL COOLING. AMPLE
FLOW/SHEAR EXISTS FOR FAST MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINAL HAIL.

..JEWELL.. 08/31/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON 45930688 45330809 45100948 45191081 45841103 46810935
47740820 48330715 48290629 47660559 46800578 45930688

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 311943
SWODY1
SPC AC 311941

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2011

VALID 312000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...20Z UPDATE...
SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED AS IS...BUT A NUMBER OF COMPLICATING FACTORS ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO UNCERTAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL. A PLUME OF VERY WARM
AND CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR IS ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. AND
STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASINGLY
SHEARED IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GLASGOW AREA OF
MONTANA INTO THE WILLISTON AND MINOT AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA ...THIS
IS GENERALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOW UNDERWAY IN THE PRESENCE OF A
FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE LIVINGSTON MT AREA.
HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY NOSED THROUGH
LEWISTOWN AND WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN MONTANA BY EARLY EVENING.
SO...SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH STORMS DEVELOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ACROSS THIS AIR MASS...AND ACROSS THE WEAKLY UNSTABLE DEEPLY MIXED
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER OVER SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA REMAINS A BIT
UNCLEAR.

THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE A
FRONTAL WAVE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EVOLVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS REGION
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH FORCING PERHAPS BECOMING
SUPPORTIVE OF AN EVOLVING STRONG/SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT.

..KERR.. 08/31/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2011/

...NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND NEB...

WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED 50-60 KT MIDLEVEL JET
STREAK OVER THE COLUMBIA PLATEAU INTO NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION WILL
EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO SK/MB BY TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE PRECEDED BY A WEAKENING MIDLEVEL IMPULSE PROGRESSING
ENEWD FROM WY INTO THE DAKOTAS. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE LOW
OVER ERN MT WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG ATTENDANT QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY INTO SRN MB WHILE TRAILING EXTENSION OF BAROCLINIC ZONE
ADVANCES THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT. ELSEWHERE...A
LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY...EXTENDING FROM THE ERN MT SURFACE
LOW SWD THROUGH WRN NEB.

AN EML AND ASSOCIATED CAP WILL BE ADVECTED NEWD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY AS MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FIELD TIGHTENS IN
ADVANCE OF NRN ROCKIES IMPULSE. AT THE SAME TIME...A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S/ CURRENTLY OBSERVED
FROM ERN SD INTO THE MID-MO VALLEY WILL BE ADVECTED NWWD. THESE
DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTIONS WILL YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE /BUT
CAPPED/ AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON FROM THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW
OVER ERN MT SWD ALONG LEE TROUGH WHERE MLCAPE WILL APPROACH
1500-2500 J/KG. FARTHER W ALONG FRONT OVER CNTRL MT...A DRIER
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON MLCAPE TO 500-1000 J/KG.

THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO
BE ALONG OR PERHAPS ON THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF SURFACE FRONT OVER
MT LATER TODAY AHEAD OF EJECTING MIDLEVEL SYSTEM. HERE...
STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL WIND FIELD WILL ALIGN WITH A STEEP-LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS AND/OR
BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. UPSCALE
GROWTH INTO AN MCS IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS MOIST INFLOW IS
ENHANCED BY A 50+ KT NOCTURNAL LLJ. THIS MAY RESULT IN A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF ND.

FARTHER SE...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL INFLUENCE OF
WEAKENING WY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM CNTRL
SD INTO WRN NEB. HERE...THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
30-35 KT OF DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG CAP AND UNCERTAINTY
IN CONVECTIVE STORM COVERAGE...ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE
INCLUDED.

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KOTX [311906]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS56 KOTX 311906
LSROTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1206 PM PDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 E LEWISTON 46.39N 116.91W
08/28/2011 NEZ PERCE ID BROADCAST MEDIA

DELAYED REPORT OF WIND DAMAGE IN THE EAGLE POINT
SUBDIVISION APPROXIMATELY 4 MILES EAST OF LEWISTON. A
SECTION OF A ROOF FROM A POLE OUTBUILDING WAS TORN OFF.
ROUGHLY THREE TWO-INCH DIAMETER TREES WERE SNAPPED. A
BOAT TRAILER WAS PUSHED INTO A POLE GARAGE DENTING THE
SHEET METAL. A LAWN OBJECT BECAME AIRBORN DAMAGING A
HOUSE WINDOW. TIME WAS ESTIMATED. KLEW TV.

1016 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 NW WORLEY 47.45N 116.99W
08/28/2011 KOOTENAI ID UTILITY COMPANY

APPROXIMATELY 20 POWER POLES SNAPPED BETWEEN THE SETTERS
SUBSTATION AND US HWY 95. POWER LOST TO APPROXIMATELY 600
KOOTENAI ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE CUSTOMERS.

&&

$$

SBODNAR

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KVEF [311724]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KVEF 311724
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1024 AM PDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0212 PM HAIL 3 ENE JOSHUA TREE 34.15N 116.27W
08/28/2011 E0.25 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

0220 PM FLASH FLOOD 10 SW NIPTON 35.37N 115.41W
08/28/2011 SAN BERNARDINO CA PARK/FOREST SRVC

THE PARK SERVICE REPORTED A LOT OF FLOODING ON MORNING
STORE MINE ROAD WITH MUD AND ROCKS ON THE ROAD.

0229 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N JOSHUA TREE 34.14N 116.32W
08/28/2011 SAN BERNARDINO CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

CALIFORNIA HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED A WIRE DOWN AND
SPARKING ON MORNINGSIDE ROAD AT SUNSET ROAD.

0230 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NNE JOSHUA TREE 34.14N 116.31W
08/28/2011 SAN BERNARDINO CA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTED A ROOF AND A PORCH OFF OF A
MOBILE HOME. THE EVENT TIME IS AN ESTIMATE OFF OF RADAR.

0230 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 N JOSHUA TREE 34.13N 116.32W
08/28/2011 SAN BERNARDINO CA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTED THAT DEBRIS HAD FLOWED ACROSS
HIGHWAY 62 IN JOSHUA TREE.

0240 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N JOSHUA TREE 34.14N 116.32W
08/28/2011 SAN BERNARDINO CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

CALIFORNIA HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED A TREE DOWN BLOCKING
THE NORTHBOUND LANES OF SUNSET AND OLEANDER IN JOSHUA
TREE. A REPORT OF A SHED IN THE ROADWAY WITH METAL DEBRIS
AND NAILS ON THE ROAD NEAR SUNSET ROAD AND STATE ROUTE 62
WAS ALSO RECEIVED.

0245 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NNE JOSHUA TREE 34.14N 116.31W
08/28/2011 SAN BERNARDINO CA NEWSPAPER

THUNDERSTORM WINDS STRIPPED ROOFS AND SIDING OF ALUMINUM
SHEDS...BLEW OF SECTIONS OF THE JOSHUA TREE LIBRARY
ROOF...BLEW OVER A LANDMARK 36 FOOT WIDE BILLBOARD
SIGN...TIPPED OVER A BUILDING HOUSING A CROCHET MUSEUM
AND DOWNED SEVERAL TREES...SOME OF WHICH FELL ONTO
BUILDINGS. PARTS OF JOSHUA TREE LOST POWER FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. EVENT TIME IS AN ESTIMATE.

0311 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NE JOSHUA TREE 34.13N 116.31W
08/28/2011 SAN BERNARDINO CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

CALIFORNIA HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED A WIRE DOWN ON HIGHWAY
62.

&&
THIS IS AN UPDATED LIST OF REPORTS FROM SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA...SENT
TO INCLUDE SEVERAL DELAYED DAMAGE REPORTS FROM THE TOWN OF JOSHUA
TREE.
$$

STACHELSKI

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 311721
SWODY2
SPC AC 311719

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2011

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH...NOW EVOLVING ACROSS THE
PACIFIC COAST STATES...AND COMPRISED OF AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
SIGNIFICANT SHORTER WAVE IMPULSES...WILL LIFT EAST NORTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF A STRONG UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE INITIAL
PERTURBATION EMERGING FROM THE LEAD FEATURE APPEARS LIKELY TO BE
ACCELERATING NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA BY
12Z THURSDAY...CONTRIBUTING TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY DURING THE DAY...WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S...AS THE
LINGERING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE IMPULSE GRADUALLY ACCELERATES EAST
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. EVENTUALLY THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND SUPPRESSION OF
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL PERTURBATION LIFTING ACROSS CANADA...
MODELS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
IMPULSE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BENEATH A PLUME OF VERY WARM AND
STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR...WHICH WILL BE MUCH
SLOWER TO ADVECT EASTWARD AS LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING MAINTAINS
A POSITIVE TILT ORIENTATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS
COMPLICATES THE CONVECTIVE AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR
THURSDAY...WHICH MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN FAIRLY LOW ACROSS MOST OF THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A
STRONG/SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...OR MORE ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE CELLS JUST TO ITS SOUTH...MAY BE IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AT THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
THREAT PROBABLY WILL DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF COOLING ALOFT COULD WEAKEN
INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST
OF THE MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL AREA THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
AREA. IF THIS OCCURS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES... SIZABLE CAPE...AND A
MODEST FLOW REGIME WITH STRONG SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND
ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

OTHERWISE...INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LIKELY WILL AWAIT
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM
IMPULSE. THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 02/00Z ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
...AND AFTER 02/06Z ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE BASED IN A
RESIDUAL MOIST LAYER ABOVE THE COLD FRONT...LIKELY IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER. BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR AT LEAST A SEVERE HAIL
THREAT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.

..KERR.. 08/31/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 311626
SWODY1
SPC AC 311624

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2011

VALID 311630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM
PARTS OF ERN MT ACROSS NRN ND...

...NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND NEB...

WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED 50-60 KT MIDLEVEL JET
STREAK OVER THE COLUMBIA PLATEAU INTO NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION WILL
EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO SK/MB BY TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE PRECEDED BY A WEAKENING MIDLEVEL IMPULSE PROGRESSING
ENEWD FROM WY INTO THE DAKOTAS. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE LOW
OVER ERN MT WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG ATTENDANT QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY INTO SRN MB WHILE TRAILING EXTENSION OF BAROCLINIC ZONE
ADVANCES THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT. ELSEWHERE...A
LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY...EXTENDING FROM THE ERN MT SURFACE
LOW SWD THROUGH WRN NEB.

AN EML AND ASSOCIATED CAP WILL BE ADVECTED NEWD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY AS MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FIELD TIGHTENS IN
ADVANCE OF NRN ROCKIES IMPULSE. AT THE SAME TIME...A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S/ CURRENTLY OBSERVED
FROM ERN SD INTO THE MID-MO VALLEY WILL BE ADVECTED NWWD. THESE
DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTIONS WILL YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE /BUT
CAPPED/ AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON FROM THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW
OVER ERN MT SWD ALONG LEE TROUGH WHERE MLCAPE WILL APPROACH
1500-2500 J/KG. FARTHER W ALONG FRONT OVER CNTRL MT...A DRIER
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON MLCAPE TO 500-1000 J/KG.

THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO
BE ALONG OR PERHAPS ON THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF SURFACE FRONT OVER
MT LATER TODAY AHEAD OF EJECTING MIDLEVEL SYSTEM. HERE...
STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL WIND FIELD WILL ALIGN WITH A STEEP-LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS AND/OR
BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. UPSCALE
GROWTH INTO AN MCS IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS MOIST INFLOW IS
ENHANCED BY A 50+ KT NOCTURNAL LLJ. THIS MAY RESULT IN A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF ND.

FARTHER SE...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL INFLUENCE OF
WEAKENING WY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM CNTRL
SD INTO WRN NEB. HERE...THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
30-35 KT OF DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG CAP AND UNCERTAINTY
IN CONVECTIVE STORM COVERAGE...ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE
INCLUDED.

..MEAD/GRAMS.. 08/31/2011

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KJAX [311612]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 311612
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1212 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1135 AM WATER SPOUT 4 NE VILANO BEACH 29.99N 81.26W
08/31/2011 AMZ452 FL PUBLIC

WATER SPOUT REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC JUST OFFSHORE AND
RELAYED THROUGH EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. EXACT POSITION
ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

$$

CARROLL

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KGGW [311412]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 311412
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
811 AM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 AM TSTM WND DMG 5 S OPHEIM 48.78N 106.41W
08/31/2011 VALLEY MT PUBLIC

60 FT RADIO TOWER BENT IN HALF. 4 INCH DIAMETER TREE
LIMBS BROKEN.

&&

$$

METZGER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 311242
SWODY1
SPC AC 311240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2011

VALID 311300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN MT ACROSS ND INTO NWRN
MN...

...ERN MT ACROSS ND INTO NWRN MN...
LARGER SCALE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...AS
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD INTO WRN WY MOVES TOWARD THE DAKOTAS
WITHIN A BAND OF STRONGER SWLY FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE PACIFIC
NW SYSTEM. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT INTO ERN MT AND DEEPEN TODAY BEFORE MOVING NEWD ACROSS
WRN/NRN ND REACHING SRN MANITOBA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A NE/SW
ORIENTED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SERN SASKATCHEWAN SWWD THROUGH
THE LOW AND INTO SWRN MT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EWD LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE PLAINS WILL
TRANSPORT INCREASING MOISTURE NWD TODAY. DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/ERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOISTURE DECREASING WWD INTO THE 50S
OVER ERN MT. THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW A PLUME OF STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES/EML TO OVERSPREAD THE DAKOTAS TODAY...RESULTING IN
INCREASING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-2500 J PER KG OVER THE
CENTRAL AND ERN DAKOTAS/ AS STRONG DIABATIC HEATING OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE EML IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE-BASED DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER PARTS OF ERN MT BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE WY SHORT WAVE
TROUGH COUPLES WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AND
SPREAD EWD/NEWD THROUGH TONIGHT AS THEY ENCOUNTER INCREASING
MOISTURE WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS PARTS OF ND...WITH ACTIVITY REACHING
NWRN MN LATE TONIGHT. MAINTENANCE OF A NOCTURNAL MCS WILL BE AIDED
BY STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE NRN PLAINS. WIND PROFILES ARE
FORECAST TO VEER AND INCREASE IN SPEED WITH HEIGHT...PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND
INTENSITY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

...SD...
FARTHER SOUTH OVER SD THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS THE EML/CAPPING INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT INDICATING STORMS WILL MOVE FROM
ERN MT ACROSS ND TOWARD NWRN MN DURING THE PERIOD...THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY IN MESOSCALE AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SD. ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN
STRONG LOW LEVEL HEATING WILL WEAKEN THE CAP WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS. THE FAVORABLE CAPE/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FOR ANY
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS THAT CAN OCCUR. HOWEVER...MINIMAL FORCING FOR
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT OVERALL STORM COVERAGE...SO
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME.

..WEISS/SMITH.. 08/31/2011

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KDVN [311236]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 311236
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
736 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 E CEDAR RAPIDS 41.97N 91.58W
08/31/2011 M1.00 INCH LINN IA TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

DC

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KSLC [311029]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 311029
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
429 AM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0855 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 15 SW DUGWAY 40.10N 112.98W
08/30/2011 M66.00 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

TOWER GRID SENSOR

0900 PM TSTM WND GST 13 SW DUGWAY 40.12N 112.95W
08/30/2011 M66.00 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

CAMEL BACK MOUNTAIN

0910 PM TSTM WND GST 10 WSW DUGWAY 40.18N 112.92W
08/30/2011 M59.00 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

DITTO SENSOR.

&&

$$

LC

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KPIH [311027]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 311027
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
427 AM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0427 AM HAIL 5 ESE RIGBY 43.66N 111.82W
08/31/2011 E0.50 INCH JEFFERSON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

DMH

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 310916
SWOD48
SPC AC 310916

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0416 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2011

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
RELATIVE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REVIEWED FOR THIS FORECAST SUGGEST SOMEWHAT
HIGHER-END SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY
REGION ON D4/SATURDAY INTO D5/SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AS ANOTHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDES A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND RESULTING LIFT ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT ENCOUNTERS WARMING AND MOIST AIRMASS. THE AREA DEPICTED FOR D4
IS THE REGION WHERE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT SUGGESTS THE HIGHER PROBABILITY
OF CONVECTIVE QPF WILL COINCIDE WITH A MEAN MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J PER
KG. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE AREA LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SOMEWHAT
STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FLOW ON THE EDGE OF THE STRONGER WLYS ALOFT.

THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY THAT SEGMENT
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FRONT RANGE AND SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL
ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TSTMS. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER FLOW
ACROSS THESE AREAS IS MORE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT A RISK AREA AT THIS
TIME.

BEYOND D4...A WIDE DISPARITY IN MODEL SCENARIOS BEGINS TO
EVOLVE...ESPECIALLY WITH EVOLUTION OF GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE.
GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD IN THE FORECASTS...UNCERTAINTY IN SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE IS HIGH. HOWEVER...LARGER SCALE PATTERN
DEPICTED IN THE 00Z NCEP MREF SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS THAT THE EVOLVING
PATTERN WILL GENERALLY ACT TO SUPPRESS SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY GOING
INTO NEXT WEEK.

..CARBIN.. 08/31/2011

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KGGW [310829]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 310829
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
229 AM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0125 AM TSTM WND GST 7 SE DEVILS CREEK RECRE 47.56N 107.53W
08/31/2011 M42 MPH GARFIELD MT MESONET

&&

$$

METZGER

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 310706
SWODY3
SPC AC 310704

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2011

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
BELT OF STRONGER MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN
STATES AND CANADA WITH ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD AWAY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO ERN CANADA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND. ON THE HEELS OF THIS LEADING SHORTWAVE...THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG/AMPLIFY SEWD FROM WRN CANADA TO THE NRN
PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING. VESTIGES OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM
THE OH VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST WILL BE WEAKENED FURTHER BY THE
ENCROACHMENT OF HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE
DISTURBANCES IN THE WLYS...AS WELL AS FROM A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
FORECAST TO EDGE NWD FROM THE GULF.

...MIDWEST...
ANY SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MARGINAL/LIMITED. A
FEW STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LEADING IMPULSE MOVING INTO ERN CANADA. THE SURFACE FRONT
WILL BECOME FURTHER REMOVED FROM SUPPORTIVE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND ANY STORMS DEVELOPING ON OR NEAR THE FRONT...FROM LOWER
MI SWWD ACROSS IL...WILL LIKELY EXIST IN WEAK SHEAR UNSUPPORTIVE OF
STORM PERSISTENCE/ORGANIZATION.

...HIGH PLAINS LATE...
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE PERIOD
AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS SEWD FROM MT TO THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL SURGE COINCIDENT WITH A NARROW HIGH PLAINS MOIST AXIS COULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN STRONGER STORMS FROM NERN CO/ERN WY INTO SD
THOUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

..CARBIN.. 08/31/2011

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KGGW [310703]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 310703
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
103 AM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 AM TSTM WND GST 35 SW MALTA 48.00N 108.41W
08/31/2011 M51 MPH PHILLIPS MT MESONET

&&

$$

METZGER

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KGGW [310629]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 310629
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1228 AM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1150 PM TSTM WND GST WINNETT 47.00N 108.35W
08/30/2011 E41 MPH PETROLEUM MT MESONET

&&

$$

METZGER

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 310620
SWODY2
SPC AC 310619

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2011

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN CO NEWD ACROSS THE
ERN DAKOTAS TO NRN MN/NWRN WI...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PIVOT THROUGH LARGER SCALE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE INTERIOR NW THIS PERIOD AND MOVE FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO SCNTRL CANADA. THESE SYSTEMS WILL ACT TO TEMPER THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST AND SET THE STAGE FOR
A GRADUAL PATTERN CHANGE WITH THE CNTRL U.S. EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EVENTUALLY BEING SUPPRESSED SWD.

A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT INTO
SRN CANADA DURING THE DY1 PERIOD...THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW IN CANADA IS FORECAST TO BE
SITUATED FROM NRN MN SWWD TO WY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
THERMAL/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LEADING THE FRONT...FROM ERN CO ACROSS
NEB TO MN. A STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL
THEN DEVELOP EAST ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SUBSEQUENT 500MB HEIGHT FALLS AIDING LIFT AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS AND OVER THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM WY/CO TO THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS...AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CRESTING THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...WILL
PROMOTE SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE ERN LAKES...PA AND NY.

NHC INDICATES A LOW PROBABILITY OF TC DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE SPREADS NWWD...ON THE SRN
FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

...MN SWWD TO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
MCS ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING FRONTAL WAVE AND WARM ADVECTION MAY BE
ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALONG THE MN/CANADA BORDER AREA ON THE
EDGE OF A STRENGTHENING CAPPING INVERSION. VERY STRONG
DESTABILIZATION IS INDICATED IN THE WAKE OF THIS MCS...ALONG ITS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ACROSS NRN MN DURING THE DAY. ENHANCED LIFT AND
DEEPENING FRONTAL CIRCULATION AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT RENEWED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN
NRN MN AS INHIBITION IS GRADUALLY OVERCOME LATER IN THE DAY.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS IF STORMS CAN
INITIATE IN THIS AREA WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE.
ONE OR TWO STORM CLUSTERS MAY PERSIST AND SPREAD ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD AND INTO WI THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

THE NEXT AREA OF CONCERN FOR SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE IN THE POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME.
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THESE AREAS COINCIDENT WITH
DIURNAL HEATING. DESPITE GENERALLY WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
AREA...STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND AN AXIS OF GREATER LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING AND ASCENT EXTENDING EAST INTO NEB/SD...SHOULD RESULT IN
A FEW STORM CLUSTERS EVOLVING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. HAIL APPEARS
TO BE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION THAT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS NEB/SD ATOP THE DEEPENING
FRONTAL SURGE WITH BOTH LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAINTAINING
A CHANCE FOR SEVERE HAIL.

...PA/NY...
MODEST DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE 1000-1500 J PER KG/ IS INDICATED
ALONG A WEAK WARM FRONT FROM OH INTO PA/NY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
REGION WILL LIE BENEATH 20-30KT NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE PASSAGE OF A
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT. A FEW
STORMS MAY PERSIST AND GAIN MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURE GIVEN
FORECAST SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE BUT GENERALLY MEAGER LARGE SCALE FORCING AND MARGINAL
CAPE/SHEAR PRECLUDE HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..CARBIN.. 08/31/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 310536
SWODY1
SPC AC 310534

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2011

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...

...NRN PLAINS/NRN ROCKIES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS TODAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN
PLACE BENEATH THE RIDGE BY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MID-MO VALLEY
NWWD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND ERN MT. HOWEVER...WARM AIR ALOFT AND A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL KEEP CONVECTION FROM INITIATING IN THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE WEST INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL HELP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION MOVING ENEWD INTO THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA IS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE THE GREATEST IN ERN MT AND WRN ND.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS ERN MT AND WRN ND AT 03Z THURSDAY SHOW AN
IMPRESSIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG...0-6
KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KT AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 TO 9.0
C/KM. AS STORMS INITIATE...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. THE
HAIL THREAT COULD BECOME ENHANCED IF SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP DURING
THE EARLY EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THE MORE INTENSE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LATE EVENING AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THIS WOULD CONCENTRATE THE SEVERE THREAT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL SD...MODEL FORECASTS DISAGREE ON
WHETHER STORMS CAN INITIATE IN SPITE OF THE WARM AIR ALOFT. THE NAM
INITIATES ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR SOUTH AS PIERRE SD. IF THIS
OCCURS...THEN THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL COULD EXTEND INTO CNTRL SD.
CONSIDERED UPGRADING TO SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PARTS OF NCNTRL SD.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE CAPPING INVERSION AND UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WILL MAINTAIN A 5 PERCENT WIND AND HAIL
PROBABILITY.

..BROYLES/GARNER.. 08/31/2011

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