KKEY [310312]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 310312
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1112 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1007 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SSE KEY LARGO 25.01N 80.38W
10/30/2007 M46 MPH GMZ052 FL C-MAN STATION

A SHOWER GENERATED A WIND GUST OF 40 KNOTS AT MOLASSES
REEF LIGHT C-MAN STATION. NO LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED.

&&

$$

AALBANES

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KJAX [310228]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 310228
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1027 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1010 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG PALM COAST 29.57N 81.21W
10/30/2007 FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE DOWN IN PALM COAST ALONG BALLARD LANE. TOOK DOWN
POWERLINES AND LANDED ON PARKED VEHICLE. AMOUNT OF
VEHICLE DAMAGE UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&

$$

JHESS

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KMFL [310204]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 310204
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1004 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0848 PM TSTM WND GST 3 S PERRINE 25.58N 80.34W
10/30/2007 M0.00 MPH MIAMI-DADE FL CO-OP OBSERVER

55 MPH WIND GUST REPORTED WITH SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE
NEAR SAGA BAY.

&&

$$

DIXON

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KHNX [310129]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 310129
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
629 PM PDT TUE OCT 30 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM HAIL TAFT 35.14N 119.46W
10/29/2007 M0.75 INCH KERN CA TRAINED SPOTTER

DELAYED REPORT

&&

$$

JDUD

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KKEY [310116]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 310116
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
916 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0814 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SSE KEY LARGO 25.01N 80.38W
10/30/2007 M46 MPH GMZ052 FL C-MAN STATION

&&

$$

DFM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 310045
SWODY1
SPC AC 310042

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT TUE OCT 30 2007

VALID 310100Z - 311200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SOUTH FLORIDA...
TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS FORECAST BY NHC TO MOVE NNWWD TOWARD THE SE
COAST OF FL TONIGHT GRADUALLY TAKING A MORE NLY TURN WITH TIME. BY
LATE IN THE PERIOD...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF NOEL MAY BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF SE FLORIDA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS TONIGHT IN SOUTH FLORIDA INCREASE 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES FROM
ABOUT 25 KT TO NEAR 35 KT BY 09Z. ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN
PLACE WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INCREASE IN SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ROTATING STORMS AND A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG AND
THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY TORNADO THREAT MARGINAL.

.BROYLES.. 10/31/2007

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KKEY [302320]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 302320
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
720 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0640 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
10/30/2007 M46 MPH GMZ075 FL C-MAN STATION

A SHOWER PRODUCED A WIND GUST OF 46 MPH AT SAND KEY LIGHT
C-MAN STATION. NO LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED.

&&

$$

AALBANES

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KMFL [302319]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 302319
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
719 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM HIGH SURF LANTANA 26.59N 80.06W
10/30/2007 PALM BEACH FL BROADCAST MEDIA

RETAINING WALL COLLAPSED AT LANTANA BEACH.

&&
TIME IS ESTIMATED.
$$

DIXON

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KKEY [302316]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 302316
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
715 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0601 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S BOOT KEY 24.63N 81.11W
10/30/2007 M46 MPH GMZ053 FL C-MAN STATION

A SHOWER GENERATED A WIND GUST OF 40 KNOTS AT SOMBRERO
KEY LIGHT C-MAN STATION. NO LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED.

0644 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SSE KEY LARGO 25.01N 80.38W
10/30/2007 M46 MPH GMZ052 FL C-MAN STATION

A SHOWER PRODUCED A WIND GUST OF 40 KNOTS AT MOLASSES
REEF LIGHT C-MAN STATION. NO LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED.

&&

$$

AALBANES

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KKEY [302215]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 302215
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
615 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0538 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S BOOT KEY 24.63N 81.11W
10/30/2007 M48 MPH GMZ053 FL C-MAN STATION

A SHOWER GENERATED A WIND GUST OF 42 KNOTS AT SOMBRERO
KEY LIGHT C-MAN STATION. NO LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED.

&&

$$

AALBANES

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KJAX [302213]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 302213
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
612 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0312 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES 3 WSW JACKSONVILLE BEAC 30.26N 81.43W
10/30/2007 DUVAL FL NWS EMPLOYEE

TIDAL VALUE OF 4.4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AT OAK
LANDING ON THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY.

&&

$$

JHESS

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KJAX [302208]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 302208
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
608 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0216 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES 3 WSW JACKSONVILLE BEAC 30.26N 81.43W
10/29/2007 DUVAL FL NWS EMPLOYEE

TIDAL VALUE OF 4.6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AT OAK
LANDING ON THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY.

&&

$$

JHESS

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KKEY [302131]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 302131
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
527 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0420 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SSE KEY LARGO 25.01N 80.38W
10/30/2007 M47 MPH GMZ052 FL C-MAN STATION

A SHOWER PRODUCED A WIND GUST OF 41 KNOTS AT MOLASSES
REEF LIGHT C-MAN STATION. NO LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED.

&&

$$

AALBANES

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KHNX [302108]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS56 KHNX 302108
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
208 PM PDT TUE OCT 30 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0248 PM HAIL FISH CAMP 37.48N 119.64W
10/29/2007 E0.25 INCH MARIPOSA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

0306 PM HAIL YOSEMITE SOUTH ENTRANCE 37.51N 119.63W
10/29/2007 E0.25 INCH MARIPOSA CA PARK/FOREST SRVC

0500 PM HAIL TAFT 35.14N 119.46W
10/29/2007 E0.50 INCH KERN CA BROADCAST MEDIA

ALOT ON THE GROUND.

0500 PM HAIL BAKERSFIELD 35.36N 119.00W
10/29/2007 E0.25 INCH KERN CA BROADCAST MEDIA

IN SOUTHWEST BAKERSFIELD.

0522 PM HAIL FIREBAUGH 36.85N 120.45W
10/29/2007 E0.75 INCH FRESNO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

0529 PM HAIL FIREBAUGH 36.85N 120.45W
10/29/2007 E0.75 INCH FRESNO CA NEWSPAPER

NEWSPAPER REPORTER HAD HAIL AT LEAST PENNY SIZE IN
DIAMETER.

0535 PM HAIL 2 S LIVINGSTON 37.36N 120.72W
10/29/2007 E0.25 INCH MERCED CA TRAINED SPOTTER

0538 PM HEAVY RAIN MENDOTA 36.76N 120.38W
10/29/2007 M2.20 INCH FRESNO CA MESONET

2.20 INCHES STORM TOTAL. 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED AT
THE MENDOTA ALERT GAUGE IN 15 MINUTES ENDING AT 538 PM.

0541 PM HAIL LEMOORE 36.30N 119.79W
10/29/2007 E0.75 INCH KINGS CA TRAINED SPOTTER

AT HIGHWAY 41 NEAR MOUNT WHITNEY AVENUE.

0544 PM HAIL KERMAN 36.72N 120.06W
10/29/2007 E0.75 INCH FRESNO CA STORM CHASER

0544 PM FLASH FLOOD KERMAN 36.72N 120.06W
10/29/2007 FRESNO CA STORM CHASER

STREET FLOODING IN KERMAN.

0549 PM HAIL HANFORD 36.33N 119.65W
10/29/2007 M0.50 INCH KINGS CA NWS EMPLOYEE

AT 16TH AND A HALF AND EXCELSIOR.

0549 PM HAIL LEMOORE 36.30N 119.79W
10/29/2007 E0.75 INCH KINGS CA TRAINED SPOTTER

AT GRANGEVILLE AND HIGHWAY 41.

0555 PM TSTM WND DMG FRESNO 36.78N 119.79W
10/29/2007 FRESNO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWN ON THE WEST SIDE OF FRESNO.

0555 PM HAIL FRESNO 36.78N 119.79W
10/29/2007 M0.75 INCH FRESNO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

WEST SIDE OF FRESNO.

0603 PM HAIL W SELMA 36.57N 119.61W
10/29/2007 E1.00 INCH FRESNO CA NWS EMPLOYEE

AT MOUNT WHITNEY AND PEACH.

0608 PM HAIL 5 NW FRESNO 36.83N 119.86W
10/29/2007 E1.00 INCH FRESNO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

NEAR NORTHWEST FRESNO.

0618 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 NNW FRESNO 36.85N 119.83W
10/29/2007 FRESNO CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

MOTORIST REPORTED FLOODING ON HIGHWAY 99 AT ASHLAN
AVENUE.

0618 PM HAIL 5 W FRESNO 36.78N 119.88W
10/29/2007 U0.25 INCH FRESNO CA STORM CHASER

HAIL OF UNKNOWN SIZE. SWATH 6 MILES WIDE FROM KERMAN TO
THE WEST SIDE OF FRESNO.

0620 PM TSTM WND DMG FRESNO 36.78N 119.79W
10/29/2007 FRESNO CA BROADCAST MEDIA

POWER OUTAGES TO 16,000 CUSTOMERS IN FRESNO.

0620 PM FLOOD 5 NW FRESNO 36.83N 119.86W
10/29/2007 FRESNO CA NEWSPAPER

NEWSPAPER AND BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED A NUMBER OF ROADS
FLOODED IN NORTHWEST FRESNO WITH NUMEROUS VEHICLES
STRANDED.

0621 PM HAIL 5 NW FRESNO 36.83N 119.86W
10/29/2007 E0.25 INCH FRESNO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

ALSO 0.30 INCHES OF RAIN.

0625 PM TSTM WND DMG MERCED 37.30N 120.48W
10/29/2007 MERCED CA NEWSPAPER

AT LEAST 8 DOWNED TREE LIMBS REPORTED BY PUBLIC WORKS
CREWS. LARGE PINE TREE FELL DOWN. POWER LINES ALSO DOWN.
TIME ESTIMATED.

0632 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 NNW FRESNO 36.85N 119.83W
10/29/2007 FRESNO CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

VEHICLE STUCK IN FLOODWATERS AT HIGHWAY 99 AND SHAW. TREE
DOWN IN SLOW LANE.

0632 PM HAIL 2 N SELMA 36.60N 119.61W
10/29/2007 E0.88 INCH FRESNO CA NWS EMPLOYEE

REPORTED BY OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE AT MANNING AND
MENDOCINO.

0645 PM FLOOD 3 NW FRESNO 36.81N 119.83W
10/29/2007 FRESNO CA STORM CHASER

MAJOR FLOODING IN THE TOWER DISTRICT OF FRESNO.

0650 PM FLOOD SELMA 36.57N 119.61W
10/29/2007 FRESNO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

OFF RAMP AT SECOND AVENUE AND HIGHWAY 99 FLOODED.
NEBRASKA AVENUE FLOODED NEAR THE MOUNTAIN VIEW SCHOOL.

0653 PM HAIL TEHACHAPI 35.13N 118.44W
10/29/2007 E0.50 INCH KERN CA TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE REPORTED.

0700 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 W TEHACHAPI 35.13N 118.51W
10/29/2007 KERN CA TRAINED SPOTTER

DEBRIS ON ROADWAY. ROAD FLOODED.

0706 PM TSTM WND DMG PORTERVILLE 36.06N 119.03W
10/29/2007 TULARE CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWERLINES AND TREES DOWN.

0706 PM TSTM WND DMG FRESNO 36.78N 119.79W
10/29/2007 FRESNO CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ON GETTYSBURG AVENUE AT VAN NESS BLVD.

0707 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 NW FRESNO 36.83N 119.86W
10/29/2007 FRESNO CA BROADCAST MEDIA

BOTH A STORM CHASER AND BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED THE
WEIGHT OF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL LED TO THE COLLAPSE OF A
ROOF ON AN 80,000 SQUARE FOOT WAREHOUSE.

0708 PM TSTM WND DMG VISALIA 36.33N 119.32W
10/29/2007 TULARE CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWERLINES AND TREES DOWN ON ROADS.

0715 PM FLOOD VISALIA 36.33N 119.32W
10/29/2007 TULARE CA NEWSPAPER

SEVERAL ROADS FLOODED IN VISALIA MAINLY IN THE DOWNTOWN
AND ON THE SOUTHSIDE. TIME ESTIMATED.

0715 PM TSTM WND DMG VISALIA 36.33N 119.32W
10/29/2007 TULARE CA NEWSPAPER

TREES FELL DOWN ON TWO HOUSES DAMAGING THEM. ONE HOUSE
HAD ROOF AND STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. DETAILS OF DAMAGE TO
OTHER HOUSE UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. TIME ESTIMATED.

0725 PM TSTM WND DMG TULARE 36.20N 119.34W
10/29/2007 TULARE CA NEWSPAPER

SEVERAL REPORTS OF TREES DOWN IN TULARE. REPORTS OF TREES
AND POWER LINES ALSO DOWN IN LINDSAY.

0745 PM TSTM WND GST 5 SW EL PORTAL 37.62N 119.84W
10/29/2007 M70.00 MPH MARIPOSA CA MESONET

0749 PM TSTM WND DMG LEMON COVE 36.38N 119.02W
10/29/2007 TULARE CA MESONET

TREES DOWN. POWER OUTAGES.

0800 PM TSTM WND DMG LODGEPOLE 36.60N 118.73W
10/29/2007 TULARE CA PARK/FOREST SRVC

A FEW TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

0830 PM FLOOD YOSEMITE VALLEY 37.74N 119.60W
10/29/2007 MARIPOSA CA PARK/FOREST SRVC

MINOR FLOODING OF ROADS IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS OF YOSEMITE VALLEY. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

0920 PM FLOOD 5 NW FRESNO 36.83N 119.86W
10/29/2007 FRESNO CA NWS EMPLOYEE

OFF-DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED FLOODWATERS OF SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FOOT STILL COVERING LOW-LYING ROADS NEAR THE
UNION PACIFIC RAILTRACKS AND ASHLAN AVENUE FROM HEAVIER
RAIN EARLY ON.

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN LEMON COVE 36.38N 119.02W
10/30/2007 M1.51 INCH TULARE CA CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 8 AM PDT REPORTED BY LEMC1.

&&
THIS IS THE FINAL SUMMARY OF REPORTS FROM YESTERDAY'S SEVERE WEATHER.

$$

STACHELSKI/SANGER

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KJAX [302051]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 302051
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
451 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES 3 WSW JACKSONVILLE BEAC 30.26N 81.43W
10/30/2007 DUVAL FL NWS EMPLOYEE

WATER BEGINNING TO ENTER BACKYARDS NEAR OAK LANDING ON
THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY.

&&

$$

JHESS

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KKEY [302020]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 302020
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
420 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0307 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SSE KEY LARGO 25.01N 80.38W
10/30/2007 M48 MPH GMZ052 FL C-MAN STATION

&&

$$

DFM

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KCHS [301957]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 301957
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
357 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES 1 SE RABBIT HILL 31.90N 81.26W
10/29/2007 BRYAN GA NWS EMPLOYEE

NEAR HWY 144...ALONG MILL HILL RD...WATER OVER THE ROAD
IN SEVERAL PLACES.

1200 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES 2 SE RABBIT HILL 31.89N 81.25W
10/29/2007 BRYAN GA NWS EMPLOYEE

WATER BREACHING DOCKS ALONG WARNELL RD.

&&

$$

JPC

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KJAX [301952]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 301952
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
351 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES 1 WSW MARINELAND 29.66N 81.23W
10/30/2007 FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

PRINCESS ESTATES PRESERVE PARK HAS BEEN CLOSED DUE TO
WATER FROM STILES CREEK AS CLOSE AS 3 INCHES FROM THE
MAIN ROAD GOING INTO THE CAMPGROUND. PRIMITIVE CAMPSITES
ARE ALSO GETTING FLOODED AS WELL. THE PARK IS EXPECTED TO
BE CLOSED UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

$$

JHESS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 301943
SWODY1
SPC AC 301940

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT TUE OCT 30 2007

VALID 302000Z - 311200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..NRN CA TO SRN WY/NRN CO...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS NRN UT INTO
SWRN WY ALONG SW-NE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
CERTAINLY BEEN ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ALONG ADVANCING
FRONTAL ZONE WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND 60S. IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THIS
REGION AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND FURTHER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS FAR DOWNSTREAM AS
NCNTRL CO. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN WEAKENING OF
THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS.

..SOUTH FL...

TROPICAL STORM NOEL WILL DRIFT WWD ACROSS CUBA TONIGHT BUT REMAIN
WELL SE OF THE SRN FL PENINSULA. WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE ERN SEMICIRCLE OF THIS CYCLONE IT
APPEARS THE PROBABILITY FOR TORNADOES WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD ACROSS SRN FL.

.DARROW.. 10/30/2007

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KJAX [301937]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 301937
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
337 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES PALM COAST 29.57N 81.21W
10/30/2007 FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER LEVEL IS ONE INCH FROM THE TOP OF THE WALL/BULKHEAD
ALONG THE INLAND PALM COAST SALT WATER CANAL. THIS LEVEL
IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN DURING HIGH TIDE YESTERDAY.

&&

$$

JHESS

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KJAX [301936]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 301936
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
335 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM HIGH SURF 3 SSE GUANA RIVER STATE 30.05N 81.32W
10/30/2007 ST. JOHNS FL NWS STORM SURVEY

THE OCEAN REACHED THE DUNES AND WAS ERODING THE DUNE LINE
FROM THE GATE STATION SOUTHWARD. HOMES WERE THREATENED
WITH POTENTIAL COLLAPSE AT 2855...2859 AND 2861 SOUTH
PONTE VEDRA BEACH BOULVARD. AN EMPTY LOT AT 2855 SOUTH
PONTE VEDRA BOULVARD LOST 10 FEET OF PROPERTY BETWEEN
NOON AND 130 PM EDT. DIRT WAS BEING DUMPED INTO THE LOT
IN AN ATTEMPT TO STABILIZE THE PROPERITIES ON EITHER SIDE
OF IT.

&&

$$

SANDRIK

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KCHS [301739]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 301739
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
139 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1218 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES TYBEE ISLAND 32.00N 80.85W
10/30/2007 CHATHAM GA OTHER FEDERAL

HIGH TIDE LEVEL WAS 9.16 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AS
MEASURED BY THE NOS STATION AT FORT PULASKI.

1230 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
10/30/2007 CHARLESTON SC OTHER FEDERAL

HIGH TIDE LEVEL WAS 7.15 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AS
MEASURED BY THE NOS STATION ON CHARLESTON HARBOR.

&&

$$

REV

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KJAX [301707]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 301707
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
106 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM HIGH SURF 3 S GUANA RIVER STATE P 30.04N 81.33W
10/29/2007 ST. JOHNS FL NWS EMPLOYEE

STAIRS AND WALKWAYS LEADING TO THE OCEAN WERE WASHED AWAY
DUE TO HIGH SURF AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.

1200 PM HIGH SURF 4 S GUANA RIVER STATE P 30.04N 81.33W
10/29/2007 ST. JOHNS FL NWS EMPLOYEE

BACK PORCH OF RESIDENCE AT 2561 SOUTH PONTE VEDRA BLVD
WAS WASHED INTO THE OCEAN. HIGH SURF AND HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES REMOVED NEARLY 12 FEET OF SAND SAME
LOCATION.

1230 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES TALBOT ISLAND 30.47N 81.42W
10/29/2007 DUVAL FL PARK/FOREST SRVC

OCEAN FLOODING PRODUCED 10-12 INCHES OF WATER ON
CAMPGROUND SITES. A PORTION OF FORT GEORGE ROAD WAS
FLOODED.

&&

$$

ARS

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 301642
SWODY2
SPC AC 301640

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2007

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..FL...

TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE
WRN BAHAMA ISLANDS AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FL LATE IN
THE PERIOD. CENTER OF CIRCULATION SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE SRN FL
PENINSULA...ALTHOUGH LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF
STORM WILL ENHANCE THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST A FEW SUPERCELLS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC COAST. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT ACROSS SRN FL...ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE.

..CENTRAL ROCKIES...

MID LEVEL HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES FROM LATE DAY1 INTO THE DAY2 PERIOD AS SPEED MAX
EJECTS ACROSS AZ/NRN MN INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NORTH OF THE JET ACROSS ERN UT INTO CNTRL CO DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SUGGEST JUST ENOUGH POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITHIN
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION...AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING SHOULD PROVE SPARSE.

.DARROW.. 10/30/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 301531
SWODY1
SPC AC 301528

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1028 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2007

VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SOUTH FLA...
T.S. NOEL WILL MOVE SLOWLY WWD OVER THE CUBA TODAY /REF LATEST NHC
FCSTS/. MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AS T.S NOEL BEGINS TO LIFT NWWD
OVERNIGHT...THE ENSUING PRESSURE/GEO POTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL
BEGIN TO INTENSIFY SUPPORTING INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER SOUTH
FLA...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING AROUND 150 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH
AFTER 31/06Z. DESPITE SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF T.S. NOEL /PER WV IMAGERY/
A FEW OUTER BANDS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTH FLA
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODERATE SHEAR IS EXPECTED...MARGINAL
INSTABILITY /MUCAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG/ WILL PRECLUDE GREATER
VERTICAL STRETCHING WITH ANY TSTMS.

..NRN CA INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CA INTO
THE SRN ROCKIES /ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD SRN STREAM TROUGH/...MODEST
MID LEVEL MOISTURE/STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK VERTICAL MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN CA EWD INTO
THE ROCKIES FRONT RANGE OF NERN CO/SERN WY.

..NRN WI/WRN U.P. OF MI...
AHEAD OF A STRONG SEWD MOVING NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES...INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION AIDED BY
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COUPLED WITH STRONG
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC-850 MB FRONTAL ZONAL WILL SUPPORT
SUFFICIENT MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION /MUCAPES UP TO 100 J/KG/ TO
WARRANT INCLUSION OF ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE FCST. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 31/06Z WHEN THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

.CROSBIE/HALES.. 10/30/2007

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KJAX [301507]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 301507
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1107 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES BRUNSWICK 31.14N 81.47W
10/29/2007 GLYNN GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES FROM THE NORTHEASTER CONDITIONS
BROUGHT WATER UP INTO BACKYARDS OF SEVERAL PROPERTIES.

&&

$$

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KMFR [301435]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 301435
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
734 AM PDT TUE OCT 30 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0734 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNE SELMA 42.30N 123.59W
10/30/2007 M1.00 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

7PM TO 7AM. TSTMS LAST EVENING.

&&

$$

GLASER

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KCHS [301417]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 301417
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1015 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES TYBEE ISLAND 32.00N 80.85W
10/29/2007 CHATHAM GA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

TYBEE ISLAND FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTED MODERATE TO SEVERE
BEACH EROSION BETWEEN 14TH AND 8TH STREET. APPROXIMATELY
3 FEET OF DUNES HAVE ERODED AWAY.

&&

$$

REV

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KMLB [301337]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 301337
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
937 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0452 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MELBOURNE 28.08N 80.61W
10/30/2007 M43 MPH BREVARD FL OFFICIAL NWS OBS

40 KNOTS FROM 070 DEGREES AT 452 AM MELBOURNE
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

&&

$$

MRT

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KJAX [301306]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 301306
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
906 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM HIGH SURF 2 N MARINELAND 29.69N 81.21W
10/29/2007 ST. JOHNS FL NEWSPAPER

HIGH TIDES AND 7 TO 10 FOOT SURF PRODUCED SEVERE BEACH
EROSION IN THE SUMMERHAVEN AREA NORTH OF MARINELAND.

&&

$$

SANDRIK

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KJAX [301256]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 301256
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
856 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0857 PM HIGH SURF JACKSONVILLE BEACH 30.28N 81.39W
10/29/2007 DUVAL FL BROADCAST MEDIA

THE JACKSONVILLE BEACH WAS CLOSED WHEN FOUR BOARDS

DESIGNED TO BREAK AWAY DURING HIGH SURF WERE KNOCKED OUT.

&&

$$

SANDRIK

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KJAX [301252]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 301252
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
852 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM HIGH SURF 5 SSE GUANA RIVER STATE 30.02N 81.32W
10/29/2007 ST. JOHNS FL BROADCAST MEDIA

A BEACHFRONT HOME WAS IN DANGER OF COLLAPSE DUE TO HIGH
SURF AND SEVERE BEACH EROSION. EROSION HAS BEEN AN
ONGOING PROBLEM AT THIS LOCATION AND A SEAWALL HAD BEEN
BUILT IN FRONT OF THE HOME JUST LAST WEEK. THIS SEA WALL
HAS BEEN UNDERMINED AND THE HOUSE IS THREATENED BY THE
HIGH SURF.

&&

$$

SANDRIK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 301230
SWODY1
SPC AC 301227

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2007

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INLAND/EWD FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE WRN STATES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHILE A MUCH STRONGER NRN STREAM TROUGH
UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION OVER THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AN EXTENSIVE SURFACE HIGH FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO
NORTHEAST WILL MAKE ONLY GRADUAL EWD PROGRESS TODAY WITH THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH CENTER AND LOW SURFACE PRESSURE
IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH T.S. NOEL MAINTAINING LONG-FETCH OF STOUT
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS FL.

STRONGER WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE GREAT
LAKES AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THESE AREAS BETWEEN THE
ERN U.S. HIGH AND DEEPENING LEE-TROUGH AND LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ADVANCING AND AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO MT...WILL SPREAD
QUICKLY SEWD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...AND BE
SITUATED ROUGHLY ALONG A TX PNHDL TO U.P. OF MI LINE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

..SE FL...
WILL MAINTAIN LOW TORNADO PROBABILITIES OVER SERN FL FOR TONIGHT.
LATEST NHC/TPC TRACK FORECAST KEEPS CENTER OF T.S. NOEL WELL OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FL...AND REGION CURRENTLY LIES WITHIN AN AXIS OF LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE BASED ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING NAM-WRF/NAM-KF AND WRF-ARW INDICATE THAT
STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BEGIN TO IMPINGE UPON THE SE COAST
COINCIDENT TO APPROACH OF FEEDER BAND CONVECTION AFTER DARK. GIVEN
VERY WARM/MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS RESIDING ACROSS SRN FL AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...A BRIEF TORNADO OR WATERSPOUT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

..WEST...
WEAK DESTABILIZATION WITHIN DEFORMATION AXIS ALONG AND NORTH OF
SHORT WAVE TRACKS FROM NRN CA TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES COULD AID WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND GENERALLY WEAK
SHEAR IN THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

.CARBIN/JEWELL.. 10/30/2007

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 300846
SWOD48
SPC AC 300846

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2007

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

..SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK...

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT
AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE U.S. BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE
EVOLUTION OF A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STATES...WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CONSIDERABLE DRYING/STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO BE ALREADY UNDERWAY BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR
SIGNIFICANT RECOVERY. THUS...WHILE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW COULD DEVELOP FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS REGION BY MONDAY...AHEAD OF A
SIGNIFICANT REINFORCING COLD INTRUSION...ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS RATHER MINOR AT BEST.

.KERR.. 10/30/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 300622
SWODY3
SPC AC 300622

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2007

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEAST OF THE
BAHAMAS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AHEAD OF
A DEVELOPING TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH INTERACTING STREAMS OF FLOW NEAR
SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS INDICATE
THAT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSES WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITHIN THE
STRONG NORTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES...WITH ONE TROUGH PROGGED
TO LIFT OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND ANOTHER PROGGED TO DIG FROM THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA. AS THIS
OCCURS...BROAD TROUGHING...WITH EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE
IMPULSES...WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE WITHIN THE WEAKER SOUTHERN
STREAM...FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPMENTS IN THE SOUTHERN/SUBTROPICAL STREAMS...
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES. BUT...WITH A SERIES OF COLD/DRY
INTRUSIONS CONTINUING INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES...IN THE WAKE
OF OFFSHORE TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
AND...THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS
THE U.S. THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY.

.KERR.. 10/30/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 300601
SWODY1
SPC AC 300558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2007

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..FLORIDA...
TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS FORECAST BY NHC TO MOVE NWWD TOWARD THE SERN
COAST OF FL TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE STORM APPROACHES...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EAST COAST OF FL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MIAMI AREA SHOW 20 TO
25 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
TO ABOUT 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...THE SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING
STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT MAY
EXIST ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE PERIOD MAINLY FROM THE MIAMI AREA NWD
TO MELBOURNE.

..GREAT BASIN...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS FORECAST TO
DEAMPLIFY AND MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY THIS EVENING.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...COLD AIR ALOFT AND SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION.

.BROYLES/JEWELL.. 10/30/2007

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KHNX [300503]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary...corrected

NWUS56 KHNX 300503 CCA
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
1003 PM PDT MON OCT 29 2007

CORRECTED FINAL ENTRY

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0248 PM HAIL FISH CAMP 37.48N 119.64W
10/29/2007 E0.25 INCH MARIPOSA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

0306 PM HAIL YOSEMITE SOUTH ENTRANCE 37.51N 119.63W
10/29/2007 E0.25 INCH MARIPOSA CA PARK/FOREST SRVC

0500 PM HAIL TAFT 35.14N 119.46W
10/29/2007 E0.50 INCH KERN CA BROADCAST MEDIA

ALOT ON THE GROUND.

0500 PM HAIL BAKERSFIELD 35.36N 119.00W
10/29/2007 E0.25 INCH KERN CA BROADCAST MEDIA

IN SOUTHWEST BAKERSFIELD.

0522 PM HAIL FIREBAUGH 36.85N 120.45W
10/29/2007 E0.75 INCH FRESNO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

0529 PM HAIL FIREBAUGH 36.85N 120.45W
10/29/2007 E0.75 INCH FRESNO CA NEWSPAPER

NEWSPAPER REPORTER HAD HAIL AT LEAST PENNY SIZE IN
DIAMETER.

0535 PM HAIL 2 S LIVINGSTON 37.36N 120.72W
10/29/2007 E0.25 INCH MERCED CA TRAINED SPOTTER

0538 PM HEAVY RAIN MENDOTA 36.76N 120.38W
10/29/2007 M1.42 INCH FRESNO CA MESONET

1.42 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED AT THE MENDOTA ALERT GAUGE.

0541 PM HAIL LEMOORE 36.30N 119.79W
10/29/2007 E0.75 INCH KINGS CA TRAINED SPOTTER

AT HIGHWAY 41 NEAR MOUNT WHITNEY AVENUE.

0544 PM FLASH FLOOD KERMAN 36.72N 120.06W
10/29/2007 FRESNO CA STORM CHASER

STREET FLOODING IN KERMAN.

0544 PM HAIL KERMAN 36.72N 120.06W
10/29/2007 E0.75 INCH FRESNO CA STORM CHASER

0549 PM HAIL HANFORD 36.33N 119.65W
10/29/2007 M0.50 INCH KINGS CA NWS EMPLOYEE

AT 16TH AND A HALF AND EXCELSIOR.

0549 PM HAIL LEMOORE 36.30N 119.79W
10/29/2007 E0.75 INCH KINGS CA TRAINED SPOTTER

AT GRANGEVILLE AND HIGHWAY 41.

0555 PM TSTM WND DMG FRESNO 36.78N 119.79W
10/29/2007 FRESNO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWN ON THE WEST SIDE OF FRESNO.

0555 PM HAIL FRESNO 36.78N 119.79W
10/29/2007 M0.75 INCH FRESNO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

WEST SIDE OF FRESNO.

0603 PM HAIL W SELMA 36.57N 119.61W
10/29/2007 E1.00 INCH FRESNO CA NWS EMPLOYEE

AT MOUNT WHITNEY AND PEACH.

0608 PM HAIL 5 NW FRESNO 36.83N 119.86W
10/29/2007 E1.00 INCH FRESNO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

NEAR NORTHWEST FRESNO.

0618 PM HAIL 5 W FRESNO 36.78N 119.88W
10/29/2007 U0.25 INCH FRESNO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL OF UNKNOWN SIZE. SWATH 6 MILES WIDE FROM KERMAN TO
THE WEST SIDE OF FRESNO.

0618 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 NNW FRESNO 36.85N 119.83W
10/29/2007 FRESNO CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

MOTORIST REPORTED FLOODING ON HIGHWAY 99 AT ASHLAN
AVENUE.

0621 PM HAIL 5 NW FRESNO 36.83N 119.86W
10/29/2007 E0.25 INCH FRESNO CA STORM CHASER

ALSO 0.30 INCHES OF RAIN.

0632 PM HAIL 2 N SELMA 36.60N 119.61W
10/29/2007 E0.88 INCH FRESNO CA NWS EMPLOYEE

REPORTED BY OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE AND MANNING AND
MENDOCINO.

0632 PM FLASH FLOOD 6 NNW FRESNO 36.86N 119.83W
10/29/2007 MADERA CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

VEHICLE STUCK IN FLOODWATERS AT HIGHWAY 99 AND SHAW. TREE
DOWN IN SLOW LANE.

0650 PM FLOOD SELMA 36.57N 119.61W
10/29/2007 FRESNO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

OFF RAMP AT SECOND AVENUE AND HIGHWAY 99 FLOODED.
NEBRASKA AVENUE FLOODED NEAR THE MOUNTAIN VIEW SCHOOL.

0653 PM HAIL TEHACHAPI 35.13N 118.44W
10/29/2007 E0.50 INCH KERN CA TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE REPORTED.

0700 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 W TEHACHAPI 35.13N 118.51W
10/29/2007 KERN CA TRAINED SPOTTER

DEBRIS ON ROADWAY. ROAD FLOODED.

0706 PM TSTM WND DMG PORTERVILLE 36.06N 119.03W
10/29/2007 TULARE CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWERLINES AND TREES DOWN.

0706 PM TSTM WND DMG FRESNO 36.78N 119.79W
10/29/2007 FRESNO CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ON GETTYSBURG AVENUE AT VAN NESS BLVD.

0708 PM TSTM WND DMG VISALIA 36.33N 119.32W
10/29/2007 TULARE CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWERLINES AND TREES DOWN ON ROADS.

&&
SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS SO FAR FROM TODAY'S SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.
$$

SANGER/STACHELSKI

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