KPIH [060321]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 060321
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO/IDAHO FALLS ID
920 PM MDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0605 PM HAIL 1 N ASHTON 44.09N 111.45W
08/05/2007 E1.00 INCH FREMONT ID TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

RSURVICK

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KCLE [060258]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCLE 060258
LSRCLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1058 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0759 PM TORNADO 2 S BETTSVILLE 41.22N 83.23W
08/05/2007 SENECA OH EMERGENCY MNGR

HIGH WINDS POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH A TORNADO CAUSED
DAMAGE TO A BARN JUST SOUTH OF BETTSVILLE. A SECOND
REPORT OF A BARN DAMAGED WAS REPORTED ABOUT 4 MILES EAST
NEAR STATE ROUTE 53. NO INJURIES WERE REPORTED.

0842 PM TORNADO CAREY 40.95N 83.38W
08/05/2007 WYANDOT OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

A TORNADO WAS SITED ON THE GROUND ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
CAREY. NUMEROUS SITINGS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS AND TORNADO
TOUCHDOWNS WERE REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTERS CONTINUED
EAST TO NEAR TYMOCHTEE THROUGH 924PM EDT. THERE WAS ONE
REPORT OF PROPERTY DAMAGE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CAREY AT
THIS TIME. NO INJURIES WERE REPORTED.

&&

$$

ABE

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KPUB [060255]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KPUB 060255
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
854 PM MDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 PM HEAVY RAIN 13 NE COLORADO SPRINGS 39.00N 104.59W
08/05/2007 M1.15 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN OCCURED BETWEEN 535 PM THROUGH 620 PM.

0530 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 NE BLACK FOREST 39.09N 104.62W
08/05/2007 M1.87 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

FELL BETWEEN 530 PM AND 630 PM.

0531 PM HEAVY RAIN COLORADO SPRINGS 38.86N 104.76W
08/05/2007 E1.50 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0533 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNW PETERSON AFB 38.86N 104.71W
08/05/2007 E1.50 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0615 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 ESE COLORADO SPRINGS 38.84N 104.67W
08/05/2007 M1.86 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

FROM 0415 PM TO 0615 PM MDT.

0620 PM FLASH FLOOD COLORADO SPRINGS 38.86N 104.76W
08/05/2007 EL PASO CO LAW ENFORCEMENT

FOOT OF WATER IN SOME INTERSECTIONS ALONG POWERS BLVD ON
EASTERN SIDE OF CITY. CAR STALLED AT GALLEY AND POWERS.
SEVERAL SIDE ROADS IN STETSON HILLS AREA FLOODED WITH UP
TO 1 FOOT OF WATER.

0625 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 SW FALCON 38.87N 104.70W
08/05/2007 E2.50 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0722 PM HEAVY RAIN FALCON 38.93N 104.62W
08/05/2007 M2.60 INCH EL PASO CO AMATEUR RADIO

STORM TOTAL...FELL OVER 1 HOUR AND 45 MINUTES.

&&

$$

KT

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KPUB [060254]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 060254
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
853 PM MDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 NE BLACK FOREST 39.09N 104.62W
08/05/2007 M1.87 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

FELL BETWEEN 530 PM AND 630 PM.

&&

$$

KT

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KLBF [060236]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KLBF 060236
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
936 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM HAIL 5 SE KILGORE 42.89N 100.89W
08/05/2007 E1.00 INCH CHERRY NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

SHERIFF DEPUTY OBSERVED QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND THEN
TURNED AROUND AS CONDITIONS WERE DETERIORATING RAPIDLY.

0510 PM HAIL 7 S VALENTINE 42.77N 100.55W
08/05/2007 E1.25 INCH CHERRY NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

0604 PM HAIL 16 SSE KILGORE 42.72N 100.84W
08/05/2007 E2.75 INCH CHERRY NE PUBLIC

BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AT THE WEST END OF MERRITT RESERVOIR.

0604 PM HAIL 17 SSE KILGORE 42.71N 100.83W
08/05/2007 E1.00 INCH CHERRY NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT MERRITT DAM.

0630 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SE WOOD LAKE 42.62N 100.21W
08/05/2007 CHERRY NE PUBLIC

4 TO 6 INCH COTTONWOOD LIMBS DOWN.

0630 PM HAIL 2 SE WOOD LAKE 42.62N 100.21W
08/05/2007 E1.00 INCH CHERRY NE PUBLIC

0645 PM HAIL 5 SW JOHNSTOWN 42.52N 100.12W
08/05/2007 E0.75 INCH BROWN NE PUBLIC

0732 PM TSTM WND GST 28 SSW AINSWORTH 42.17N 100.07W
08/05/2007 E60.00 MPH BROWN NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

0744 PM TSTM WND GST 21 S KILGORE 42.63N 100.96W
08/05/2007 E65.00 MPH CHERRY NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

SHERIFF DEPUTY REPORTED DIME SIZE HAIL ALONG WITH THE
VERY STRONG WIND. DEPUTY SAID WATER WAS BEING BLOWN IN
AROUND THE DOORS OF THE AUTOMOBILE.

0756 PM HAIL 28 SSW AINSWORTH 42.17N 100.07W
08/05/2007 E0.88 INCH BROWN NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

0805 PM HAIL 11 NNW BREWSTER 42.09N 99.95W
08/05/2007 E0.75 INCH BROWN NE PUBLIC

ESTIMATED 50 MPH WIND WITH THE HAIL.

&&

$$

BTAYLOR

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KFFC [060231]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 060231
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1031 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0940 PM TSTM WND DMG FORSYTH 33.03N 83.94W
08/05/2007 MONROE GA PUBLIC

TREES DOWN AND MINOR STREET FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE CITY
OF FORSYTH...SEVERAL TREES ON HOMES AND POWER LINES.
HORSE STABLES WERE DAMAGED IN THE RIATA SUBDIVISION.
SEVERAL ACCIDENTS WERE REPORTED ALONG I 75.

&&

$$

MGRIESIN

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KABR [060202]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 060202
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
901 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 PM TSTM WND GST 5 NE MAHTO 45.81N 100.60W
08/05/2007 E60 MPH CORSON SD PUBLIC

&&

$$

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KPUB [060154]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 060154
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
754 PM MDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 PM HEAVY RAIN 13 NE COLORADO SPRINGS 39.00N 104.59W
08/05/2007 M1.15 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN OCCURED BETWEEN 535 PM THROUGH 620 PM.

&&

$$

KT

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KLOT [060139]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KLOT 060139
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
839 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0605 PM FLOOD ROMEOVILLE 41.65N 88.09W
08/05/2007 WILL IL EMERGENCY MNGR

FLOOD WATERS OVER CURBS IN CITY.

0613 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NW ROMEOVILLE 41.67N 88.11W
08/05/2007 WILL IL LAW ENFORCEMENT

FARM HOUSE DAMAGE AT 12413 ESSINGTON ROAD. TIME AND
LOCATION CONSISTENT WITH TORNADO OBSERVATION.

0618 PM TORNADO 2 N ROMEOVILLE 41.67N 88.09W
08/05/2007 WILL IL NWS EMPLOYEE

0718 PM TSTM WND GST CRETE 41.45N 87.62W
08/05/2007 E65.00 MPH WILL IL TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED WIND GUST 65 TO 70 MPH.

0718 PM TSTM WND GST CRETE 41.45N 87.62W
08/05/2007 E65.00 MPH WILL IL TRAINED SPOTTER

0723 PM FLOOD 5 W COAL CITY 41.29N 88.37W
08/05/2007 GRUNDY IL EMERGENCY MNGR

INTERSECTION OF IL-47 AND IL-113. RAINFALL AROUND THE
RATE OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR.

0800 PM TSTM WND GST 5 W LOWELL 41.29N 87.51W
08/05/2007 E55.00 MPH LAKE IN TRAINED SPOTTER

EST GUST 50 TO 55 MPH, MOVED SPOTTERS JEEP.

0815 PM HEAVY RAIN PEOTONE 41.33N 87.80W
08/05/2007 M0.00 INCH WILL IL CO-OP OBSERVER

2.55 INCHES OF RAIN IN 90 MINUTES.

&&

$$

WN

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KPUB [060123]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 060123
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
723 PM MDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0722 PM HEAVY RAIN FALCON 38.93N 104.62W
08/05/2007 M2.60 INCH EL PASO CO AMATEUR RADIO

STORM TOTAL...FELL OVER 1 HOUR AND 45 MINUTES.

&&

$$

EPETERSE

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KPIH [060112]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 060112
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO/IDAHO FALLS ID
712 PM MDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 PM HAIL N ASHTON 44.07N 111.45W
08/05/2007 E0.75 INCH FREMONT ID TRAINED SPOTTER

MARBLE TO PENNY SIZED HAIL

&&

$$

PANGEL

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KLBF [060108]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 060108
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
808 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0805 PM HAIL 11 NNW BREWSTER 42.09N 99.95W
08/05/2007 E0.75 INCH BROWN NE PUBLIC

ESTIMATED 50 MPH WIND WITH THE HAIL.

&&

$$

BTAYLOR

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KPUB [060105]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 060105
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
705 PM MDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 PM FLASH FLOOD COLORADO SPRINGS 38.86N 104.76W
08/05/2007 EL PASO CO LAW ENFORCEMENT

FOOT OF WATER IN SOME INTERSECTIONS ALONG POWERS BLVD ON
EASTERN SIDE OF CITY. CAR STALLED AT GALLEY AND POWERS.
SEVERAL SIDE ROADS IN STETSON HILLS AREA FLOODED WITH UP
TO 1 FOOT OF WATER.

0625 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 SW FALCON 38.87N 104.70W
08/05/2007 E2.50 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

KT

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KFSD [060104]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KFSD 060104
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
804 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1025 PM FLASH FLOOD STORM LAKE 42.65N 95.20W
08/04/2007 BUENA VISTA IA TRAINED SPOTTER

URBAN FLOODING OF STREETS REPORTED IN CITY OF STORM LAKE.
SPECIFICALLY LAKE AVENUE BETWEEN 9TH AND 10TH STREET
COVERED WITH WATER.

&&

$$

DMORIN

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KPUB [060059]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 060059
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
659 PM MDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 ESE COLORADO SPRINGS 38.84N 104.67W
08/05/2007 M1.86 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

FROM 0415 PM TO 0615 PM MDT.

&&

$$

RMG

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KLBF [060059]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 060059
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
759 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0756 PM HAIL 28 SSW AINSWORTH 42.17N 100.07W
08/05/2007 E0.88 INCH BROWN NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

BTAYLOR

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1657

ACUS11 KWNS 060056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060056
INZ000-ILZ000-060200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1657
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IL AND NRN INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 060056Z - 060200Z

STORMS HAD RECENTLY INCREASED SOUTH OF THE CHI AREA AND HAVE
PRODUCED ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT
LIVED AND ISOLATED...SO A WW APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

A LINE OF STORMS EXTENDED FROM 40 SSE OF CHI TO 75 SW OF CHI...
MOVING SEWD AT 20-25 KT. MLCAPE VALUES JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE RANGED
FROM 2000-2500 J/KG...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 35 KT. GIVEN THE
LINEAR NATURE OF THE STORMS...WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.
HOWEVER...THE WIND THREAT WOULD BE GREATER IF THE STORMS MOVED MORE
EWD THAN SSEWD...WITH PREDOMINANTLY WLY WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. ALSO...20-25 KT 1KM SHEAR AND A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY
SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO. GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BEGIN
STABILIZING SHORTLY WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING... THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AND WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.IMY.. 08/06/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

39638765 39988936 40868946 41328751 41648602 41068522
40158528 39598598

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KLBF [060053]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 060053
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
752 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0744 PM TSTM WND GST 21 S KILGORE 42.63N 100.96W
08/05/2007 E65 MPH CHERRY NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

SHERIFF DEPUTY REPORTED DIME SIZE HAIL ALONG WITH THE
VERY STRONG WIND. DEPUTY SAID WATER WAS BEING BLOWN IN
AROUND THE DOORS OF THE AUTOMOBILE.

&&

$$

BTAYLOR

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 060052
SWODY1
SPC AC 060049

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2007

VALID 060100Z - 061200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES
TO THE NRN PLAINS...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST
FROM IL ACROSS OH...

..UPPER MIDWEST...
BROAD UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR EXTENDS FROM MO/IA EWD ACROSS IL/IND/OH
THIS EVENING AND IS DELINEATED ON THE NRN PERIPHERY BY A WEAK
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM SWRN IA TO SRN LAKE MI TO NERN
OH. CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION HAS SO FAR BEEN SPARSE AND HAS
LIKELY BEEN LIMITED BY BOTH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF
STRONGER FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND OVER THE WARM SECTOR. LATEST
NAM/RUC AND CALIBRATED SREF THUNDER PROBABILITIES MAINTAIN THE
PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTMS FROM IL EWD TO OH OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY RECENT
STORM DEVELOPMENT IN NRN IL. THIS ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH A FEW CELLS
ACROSS OH...HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS.

EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION IS SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE AND EXPECT ONE OR TWO STORM CLUSTERS TO
POSSIBLY GROW UPSCALE AND SPREAD GENERALLY EWD TONIGHT. WHILE HAIL
POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE LIMITED BY WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND POSSIBILITY OF UPSCALE/SMALL MCS
DEVELOPMENT INDICATES TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..CNTRL/NRN PLAINS...
A NUMBER OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS INITIATED DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS NRN NEB NWD INTO WCNTRL SD. THIS
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE OCCURRED NEAR LEE/THERMAL TROUGH AND
RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERSECTION ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY HAVE
BEEN FURTHER SUPPORTED BY VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE
ALOFT. ONGOING ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE IDEALLY LOCATED WITHIN NARROW
INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE STRONG /40-60KT/ EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ALSO
EXISTS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CONVECTION IN THIS REGION MAY
NOT PERSIST LONG...PERHAPS DUE TO STRONG DIURNAL COMPONENT TO RECENT
DEVELOPMENT AND UPCOMING ONSET OF GRADUAL DIURNAL COOLING. GIVEN
CURRENT INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF ONGOING STORMS...A HIGHER
PROBABILITY HAIL/WIND AREA WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THIS OUTLOOK. IN
ADDITION...COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN SD COULD PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS TO
SUSTAIN STORMS IN THIS AREA FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

..ROCKIES...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS POTENT SHORT WAVE VORTEX EJECTING OUT OF
THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LARGE SCALE
DYNAMIC FORCING/DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE IS APPARENTLY
OVERCOMING LACK OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION AND AIDING SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES
THIS AFTERNOON. LIFT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG/ACROSS THE
DEEP-LAYER SYNOPTIC FRONT BACKED INTO THE SRN MT/NRN WY WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION SPREADING ENEWD ATOP WARM/DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS. FORCING WITH THIS IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO
INDUCE LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT OVER NERN WY/SERN MT
LATER TONIGHT. THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY MAINTAIN/SUSTAIN THE RISK FOR
TSTMS...PERHAPS IN THE FORM OF AN MCS...ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
/ERN MT TO WRN ND/ INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

..MID ATLANTIC...
WELL-DEFINED MCV AND ASSOCIATED LARGE CLUSTER OF POORLY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WAS BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO PARTS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. AIR MASS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION HAS BEEN
THOROUGHLY OVERTURNED BY ONGOING STORMS WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF SMALL AREAS OF SRN/SERN VA...AND PERHAPS ERN DELMARVA PENINSULA.
A STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST MAY OCCUR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO PRIOR TO REMAINING INSTABILITY BEING DIMINISHED.

.CARBIN.. 08/06/2007

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KRIW [060051]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KRIW 060051
LSRRIW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
650 PM MDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0516 PM TSTM WND DMG GREYBULL 44.49N 108.06W
08/05/2007 BIG HORN WY PUBLIC

MANY LARGE TREES UPROOTED. 12-14 INCH LIMB CRUSHED CAR.
TREES UPROOTED ON MOBILE HOMES.

0521 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 W SHELL 44.53N 107.88W
08/05/2007 BIG HORN WY PUBLIC

3 LARGE MATURE ELM TREES BLOWN DOWN

0521 PM TSTM WND DMG BASIN 44.38N 108.04W
08/05/2007 BIG HORN WY PUBLIC

SEVERAL LARGE BRANCHES DOWN

0543 PM HAIL JACKSON 43.47N 110.76W
08/05/2007 E1.00 INCH TETON WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

BERC

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KLBF [060047]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 060047
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
747 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0732 PM TSTM WND GST 28 SSW AINSWORTH 42.17N 100.07W
08/05/2007 E60.00 MPH BROWN NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

BTAYLOR

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KUNR [060043]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 060043
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
643 PM MDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 PM TSTM WND GST 3 S SOUTH EAGLE BUTTE 44.95N 101.23W
08/05/2007 E70 MPH ZIEBACH SD PUBLIC

&&

$$

WETENKAMP

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KLOT [060035]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 060035
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
735 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0718 PM TSTM WND GST CRETE 41.45N 87.62W
08/05/2007 E65 MPH WILL IL TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED WIND GUST 65 TO 70 MPH.

&&

$$

WN

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KBOI [060034]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 060034
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
634 PM MDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0335 PM TSTM WND GST 22 E FIELDS 42.28N 118.24W
08/05/2007 E30.00 MPH HARNEY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

ALSO FIELDS RAWS /FIELDS 1 WEST/ AT 4318 FEET GUSTED TO
39 MPH WITHIN THE HOUR ENDING AT 308 PM.

0352 PM TSTM WND GST 13 S BURNS JUNCTION 42.59N 117.86W
08/05/2007 M53.00 MPH MALHEUR OR MESONET

ROME AIRPORT ASOS REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 53 MPH.

0408 PM TSTM WND GST 1 N FIELDS 42.27N 118.68W
08/05/2007 M58.00 MPH HARNEY OR MESONET

FIELDS CLASS III 14-C RAWS REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 58
MPH.

0452 PM TSTM WND GST 13 S BURNS JUNCTION 42.59N 117.86W
08/05/2007 M51.00 MPH MALHEUR OR MESONET

ROME AIRPORT ASOS REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 51 MPH.

0510 PM TSTM WND GST 18 SE ROME 42.63N 117.39W
08/05/2007 M47.00 MPH MALHEUR OR MESONET

GRASSY MOUNTAIN RAWS AT ELEVATION 4560 FEET REPORTED A
WIND GUST TO 47 MPH.

0534 PM TSTM WND GST S MARSING 43.55N 116.81W
08/05/2007 E50.00 MPH OWYHEE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH FOR AT LEAST 5 MINS.

0534 PM TSTM WND GST 5 WSW MARSING 43.52N 116.90W
08/05/2007 E40.00 MPH OWYHEE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED WIND GUST 35-40 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 20-25 MPH.

0534 PM TSTM WND GST 2 S NOTUS 43.70N 116.80W
08/05/2007 E35.00 MPH CANYON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

0549 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 15 W FIELDS 42.25N 118.97W
08/05/2007 M48.00 MPH HARNEY OR MESONET

BASQUE HILLS RAWS AT ELEVATION 5080 FEET REPORTED A WIND
GUST TO 48 MPH.

0602 PM TSTM WND GST 5 W BOISE 43.59N 116.33W
08/05/2007 E55.00 MPH ADA ID TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER AT INTERSECTION OF CANADA RD AND CHINDEN BLVD
REPORTED WIND GUST OF 50-55 MPH WITH 1 INCH BRANCHES DOWN
AND VISIBILITY DOWN TO ALMOST 0 MILES.

0607 PM TSTM WND GST NAMPA 43.58N 116.56W
08/05/2007 M52.00 MPH CANYON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

LOCAL MEDIA REPORTED WIND GUST OF 52 MPH. MEDIA LOCATED
AT INTERSECTION OF FRANKLIN ROAD AND I-84.

0627 PM TSTM WND DMG E NAMPA 43.58N 116.56W
08/05/2007 CANYON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

POWER OUTAGE IN EAST NAMPA. 1600 HOMES WITHOUT POWER.

&&

$$

SLEWIS

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KAKQ [060011]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KAKQ 060011
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
811 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0308 PM TSTM WND DMG QUINTON 37.53N 77.12W
08/05/2007 NEW KENT VA COUNTY OFFICIAL

TREES REPORTED DOWN AT INTERSECTION OF SHERWOOD DR AND
QUINTON RD IN TOWN OF QUINTON.

0320 PM TSTM WND GST 5 NE KEMPSVILLE 36.87N 76.09W
08/05/2007 E60.00 MPH CITY OF VIRGINIA B VA TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE BRANCHES DOWN IN LITTLE NECK AREA OF VIRGINIA
BEACH. PEA SIZED HAIL WAS ALSO OCCURRING.

0338 PM TSTM WND GST VIRGINIA BEACH OCEANFRO 36.85N 75.98W
08/05/2007 E0.00 MPH CITY OF VIRGINIA B VA AMATEUR RADIO

TREES DOWN ON POWER LINE SHOREHAVEN DR

0354 PM HAIL VIRGINIA BEACH OCEANFRO 36.85N 75.98W
08/05/2007 E0.88 INCH CITY OF VIRGINIA B VA TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKLE TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL PRINCESS ANNE BLVD AND EDWIN
DR.

0405 PM FUNNEL CLOUD KEMPSVILLE 36.83N 76.16W
08/05/2007 CITY OF VIRGINIA B VA EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS IN KEMPSVILLE LAKES
SECTION.

0520 PM HAIL HICKORY 36.66N 76.23W
08/05/2007 E0.25 INCH CITY OF CHESAPEAKE VA PUBLIC

0550 PM TSTM WND DMG NORGE 37.37N 76.77W
08/05/2007 JAMES CITY VA AMATEUR RADIO

NMRS TREES DOWN VCNTY IRON BOUND AND LONGHILL ROADS

0608 PM HAIL GLOUCESTER COURTHOUSE 37.41N 76.53W
08/05/2007 E0.88 INCH GLOUCESTER VA PUBLIC

RTE 1301 AND VILLAGE LANDING ROAD TREE LIMBS DOWN

0608 PM HAIL HAYES 37.38N 76.50W
08/05/2007 E0.88 INCH GLOUCESTER VA TRAINED SPOTTER

TSTM WIND DAMAGE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN PINEYSWAMP
RD.

0608 PM TSTM WND DMG HAYES 37.38N 76.50W
08/05/2007 GLOUCESTER VA TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN.

0632 PM HAIL GHENT 36.87N 76.30W
08/05/2007 E0.88 INCH CITY OF NORFOLK VA EMERGENCY MNGR

DIME TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL REPORTED.

&&

$$

CULLEN

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KLBF [060008]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 060008
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
708 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM HAIL 5 SW JOHNSTOWN 42.52N 100.12W
08/05/2007 E0.75 INCH BROWN NE PUBLIC

&&

$$

BTAYLOR

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KLBF [060006]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 060006
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
706 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM HAIL 2 SE WOOD LAKE 42.62N 100.21W
08/05/2007 E1.00 INCH CHERRY NE PUBLIC

&&

$$

BTAYLOR

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KLBF [060005]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 060005
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
705 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SE WOOD LAKE 42.62N 100.21W
08/05/2007 CHERRY NE PUBLIC

4 TO 6 INCH COTTONWOOD LIMBS DOWN.

&&

$$

BTAYLOR

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KLOT [052354]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 052354
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
654 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0613 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NW ROMEOVILLE 41.67N 88.11W
08/05/2007 WILL IL LAW ENFORCEMENT

FARM HOUSE DAMAGE AT 12413 ESSINGTON ROAD. TIME AND
LOCATION CONSISTENT WITH TORNADO OBSERVATION.

&&

$$

RBRUMER

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KPUB [052345]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 052345
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
545 PM MDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0531 PM HEAVY RAIN COLORADO SPRINGS 38.86N 104.76W
08/05/2007 E1.50 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0533 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNW PETERSON AFB 38.86N 104.71W
08/05/2007 E1.50 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

KT

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KUNR [052344]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 052344
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
544 PM MDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0434 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 SW PARMELEE 43.24N 101.13W
08/05/2007 TODD SD EMERGENCY MNGR

POWER LINES DOWN IN UPPER CUT MEAT AREA.

&&

$$

WETENKAMP

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KUNR [052341]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KUNR 052341
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
541 PM MDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0434 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 SW PARMELEE 43.24N 101.13W
08/05/2007 TODD SD EMERGENCY MNGR

ROOF BLOWN OFF OF HOUSE IN UPPER CUT MEAT AREA.

&&

$$

WETENKAMP

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KLBF [052332]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 052332
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
632 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0604 PM HAIL 17 SSE KILGORE 42.71N 100.83W
08/05/2007 E1.00 INCH CHERRY NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT MERRITT DAM.

&&

$$

BTAYLOR

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KUNR [052331]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 052331
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
530 PM MDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM TSTM WND GST 8 E PHILIP 44.05N 101.50W
08/05/2007 E60 MPH HAAKON SD PUBLIC

&&

$$

WETENKAMP

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KLOT [052330]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 052330
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
629 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0605 PM FLOOD ROMEOVILLE 41.65N 88.09W
08/05/2007 WILL IL EMERGENCY MNGR

FLOOD WATERS OVER CURBS IN CITY.

&&

$$

RBRUMER

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KLOT [052325]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 052325
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
625 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0618 PM TORNADO 2 N ROMEOVILLE 41.67N 88.09W
08/05/2007 WILL IL NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

RBRUMER

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KLBF [052321]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 052321
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
621 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0604 PM HAIL 16 SSE KILGORE 42.72N 100.84W
08/05/2007 E2.75 INCH CHERRY NE PUBLIC

BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AT THE WEST END OF MERRITT RESERVOIR.

&&

$$

BTAYLOR

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KUNR [052301]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 052301
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
501 PM MDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0434 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 S PARMELEE 43.29N 101.02W
08/05/2007 TODD SD EMERGENCY MNGR

ROOF BLOWN OFF OF HOUSE IN UPPER CUT MEAT AREA.

&&

$$

WETENKAMP

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KAKQ [052235]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 052235
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
635 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0632 PM HAIL GHENT 36.87N 76.30W
08/05/2007 E0.88 INCH CITY OF NORFOLK VA EMERGENCY MNGR

DIME TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL REPORTED.

&&

$$

CULLEN

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KAKQ [052225]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 052225
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
625 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM TSTM WND DMG NORGE 37.37N 76.77W
08/05/2007 JAMES CITY VA AMATEUR RADIO

NMRS TREES DOWN VCNTY IRON BOUND AND LONGHILL ROADS

&&

$$

RCURRY

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KUNR [052222]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 052222
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
422 PM MDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0414 PM HAIL 3 S PARMELEE 43.28N 101.02W
08/05/2007 E0.75 INCH TODD SD EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

MSMITH

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KAKQ [052220]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 052220
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
620 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0608 PM HAIL HAYES 37.38N 76.50W
08/05/2007 E0.88 INCH GLOUCESTER VA TRAINED SPOTTER

TSTM WIND DAMAGE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN PINEYSWAMP
RD.

&&

$$

RCURRY

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KLBF [052216]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 052216
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
515 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0510 PM HAIL 7 S VALENTINE 42.77N 100.55W
08/05/2007 E1.25 INCH CHERRY NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

BTAYLOR

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KAKQ [052215]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 052215
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
615 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0608 PM HAIL GLOUCESTER COURTHOUSE 37.41N 76.53W
08/05/2007 E0.88 INCH GLOUCESTER VA PUBLIC

RTE 1301 AND VILLAGE LANDING ROAD TREE LIMBS DOWN

&&

$$

RCURRY

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KUNR [052212]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 052212
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
411 PM MDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM TSTM WND GST 3 SW PARMELEE 43.30N 101.06W
08/05/2007 E60 MPH TODD SD TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

WETENKAMP

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KAKQ [052210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 052210
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
610 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0608 PM TSTM WND DMG HAYES 37.38N 76.50W
08/05/2007 GLOUCESTER VA TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN.

&&

$$

CULLEN

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KUNR [052207]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 052207
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
407 PM MDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0350 PM TSTM WND GST 3 S NORRIS 43.42N 101.20W
08/05/2007 E60 MPH MELLETTE SD PUBLIC

&&

$$

WETENKAMP

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KLBF [052204]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 052204
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
504 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM HAIL 5 SE KILGORE 42.89N 100.89W
08/05/2007 E1.00 INCH CHERRY NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

SHERIFF DEPUTY OBSERVED QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND THEN
TURNED AROUND AS CONDITIONS WERE DETERIORATING RAPIDLY.

&&

$$

BTAYLOR

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KILM [052158]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 052158
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
557 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N MARION 34.19N 79.40W
08/05/2007 MARION SC TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL TREES AND POWER POLES REPORTED DOWN 1 MILE NORTH
OF MARION. BRICK COLUMN ON PORCH REPORTED DOWN. POSSIBLE
DOWNBURST.

&&

$$

HAWKINS

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KGSP [051945]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 051945
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 W LAVONIA 34.44N 83.18W
08/05/2007 FRANKLIN GA COUNTY OFFICIAL

ONE TREE DOWN ON CLARKS CREEK RD. JUST WEST OF LAVONIA.

&&

$$

BSH

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KAKQ [051939]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 051939
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
339 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0308 PM TSTM WND DMG QUINTON 37.53N 77.12W
08/05/2007 NEW KENT VA COUNTY OFFICIAL

TREES REPORTED DOWN AT INTERSECTION OF SHERWOOD DR AND
QUINTON RD IN TOWN OF QUINTON.

&&

$$

MONTEFUSCO

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KPIH [051933]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 051933
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO/IDAHO FALLS ID
133 PM MDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0119 PM HAIL 4 SSE FELT 43.82N 111.16W
08/05/2007 E0.25 INCH TETON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MRIEDY

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KGSP [051929]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 051929
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
329 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM TSTM WND DMG TOCCOA 34.58N 83.32W
08/05/2007 STEPHENS GA COUNTY OFFICIAL

ONE LARGE TREE LIMB DOWN IN TOCCOA.

&&

$$

JPT

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KAKQ [051927]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KAKQ 051927
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
327 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM TSTM WND GST 5 NE KEMPSVILLE 36.87N 76.09W
08/05/2007 E60.00 MPH CITY OF VIRGINIA B VA TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE BRANCHES DOWN IN LITTLE NECK AREA OF VIRGINIA
BEACH. PEA SIZED HAIL WAS ALSO OCCURRING.

&&

$$

MONTEFUSCO

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KAKQ [051925]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 051925
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
325 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM TSTM WND GST 5 NE KEMPSVILLE 36.87N 76.09W
08/05/2007 E60 MPH CITY OF VIRGINIA B VA TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE BRANCHES DOWN IN LITTLE NECK AREA OF VIRGINIA
BEACH. PEAS SIZED HAIL WAS ALSO OCCURRING.

&&

$$

MONTEFUSCO

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KGSP [051923]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 051923
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
323 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM TSTM WND DMG LAVONIA 34.44N 83.11W
08/05/2007 FRANKLIN GA COUNTY OFFICIAL

ONE TREE DOWN NEAR LAVONIA ON HW-59.

&&

$$

JPT

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KGSP [051915]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 051915
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
315 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0250 PM TSTM WND DMG TOCCOA 34.58N 83.32W
08/05/2007 STEPHENS GA COUNTY OFFICIAL

NUMEROUS POWER LINES DOWN IN TOCCOA.

&&

$$

JPT

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1652

ACUS11 KWNS 051832
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051832
WYZ000-MTZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-052100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1652
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ID...WRN/NCENTRAL WY...SWRN/SCENTRAL MT AND NRN
UT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 051832Z - 052100Z

CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER ERN ID AND FAR WRN WY/NRN
UT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NV. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL OVER THE AREA...IF SUFFICIENT
ORGANIZATION OCCURS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...THEN A WW MAY BE NEEDED.
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF LOWER 50S DEWPTS HAS ADVECTED
NWD THROUGH NRN UT INTO ERN ID AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
GREAT BASIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE REMAINING CINH OVER
THE AREA...BUT ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPE LESS THAN 500
J/KG/. HOWEVER...STRONG WIND FIELDS /30-50 KTS FROM JUST ABOVE CLOUD
BASE PER VWP DATA/ ALONG WITH DRY ADIABATIC LAYER BENEATH THE LCL
SUGGESTS THAT A FEW TSTMS COULD BEGIN TO POSE A THREAT FOR DMGG
WINDS AS THEY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALTHOUGH
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS OVER NWRN WY AND SWRN MT...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZATION AND AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT THROUGH 21Z IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER ERN ID AND FAR NERN NV/NWRN UT. CONVECTION
ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD DEVELOP/INTENSIFY AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED SFC
TROUGH/DRYLINE CO-LOCATED WITH A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX.

.CROSBIE.. 08/05/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...

44961334 43481410 42711422 42101365 41841311 41751266
41701237 41681193 41791115 42311009 42810940 44630788
45250763 46220823 46331003 45581239

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 051731
SWODY2
SPC AC 051730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2007

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND...ERN NY...ERN PA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC...

..NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY EWD THROUGH MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIFTS ENEWD INTO
THE NRN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FAVORED LOCATION OF STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EXIST NEAR A SFC
LOW IN SD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM SCNTRL ND ACROSS
SD INTO CNTRL NEB. MCS DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR MONDAY EVENING WITH THE
STORMS MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...MODEL FORECASTS MOVE A
WELL-DEFINED 60 KT MID-LEVEL JET FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS ND
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH SLY FLOW AND
SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE VERTICAL
SHEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY WHERE INSTABILITY BECOMES
MAXIMIZED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST WITH STORMS LOCATED CLOSE TO THE
LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEPEND ON HOW MANY STORMS
INITIATE. THE GFS PRESENTS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE SCENARIO PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHICH MAY BE
DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE APPROACHING WAVE AND WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS
WHICH INTRODUCES UNCERTAINTY. HOWEVER...IF A SCENARIO CLOSER TO THE
NAM AND NAMKF VERIFIES...THEN AN MCS OR TWO SHOULD ORGANIZE IN THE
EVENING MOVING ESEWD ACROSS ERN SD INTO SRN MN AND NRN IA. THIS
WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT ALONG
THIS CORRIDOR.

..MID ATLANTIC/ERN PA/ERN NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN ONTARIO TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
QUICKLY EWD INTO QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY. THE SRN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS SE NY...ERN PA AND SRN NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
REGION SHOW VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND ABOUT 50 KT AT 500 MB. THIS
WILL CREATE MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION MONDAY SUGGESTING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELL
CLUSTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
SHOULD EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL
LIKELY BE HIGHEST NEAR INSTABILITY MAXIMA WITH THE WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL GREATEST WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LOCALLY VERY
STEEP.

..NRN AND ERN MT...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EWD TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST ON MONDAY. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH
SHOULD PROMOTE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY LOCATED IN ECNTRL MT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. COLD TEMPS
ALOFT AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT MAY EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.BROYLES.. 08/05/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 051650
SWODY1
SPC AC 051647

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 AM CDT SUN AUG 05 2007

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE DELMARVA REGION...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN IA INTO WRN OH...

..NRN ROCKIES INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS...
WELL-DEFINED UPPER VORTICITY MAX OVER NRN CA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
NEWD INTO NRN NV THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOSING AMPLITUDE AND
ACCELERATING NEWD INTO CNTRL/ERN MT LATE TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING AREA OF CLOUDS AND INCREASING MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM OVER ERN OREGON INTO SRN/CNTRL ID AND SWRN MT. IN
ADDITION...MONSOON MOISTURE IS SPREADING NWD FROM AZ/UT INTO WY
WITHIN SLY DEEP LAYER FLOW ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE SRN PLAINS
HIGH.

AS THE UPPER FEATURE MOVES NEWD AND INTERACTS WITH AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES...CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER PARTS OF SERN ID...SWRN MT AND WRN WY. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INHIBIT HEATING IN SOME AREAS...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL PERMIT
REGIONS OF STRONGER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. SWLY MID
LEVEL WINDS OF 40-45 KT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR /40-50 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM/ TO ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION
AND INTENSITY INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
STORMS.

STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM/ATTENDANT JET STREAK
PROGRESS ENEWD TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF ERN MT
AND THE WRN DAKOTAS AS LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
AREA. INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL
JET OVER THE HIGH PLAINS COUPLED WITH CONTINUED FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN AN ELEVATED SEVERE HAIL THREAT
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF WRN SD ALONG TRAILING PART OF SURFACE
COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

..DELMARVA REGION...
STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING OVER THE AREA WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 85-90F RANGE...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...THE
ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000
J/KG. ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG...WEAKENING CAP COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT/LEE
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR PARCELS TO
REACH THE LFC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 30-35 KT
ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROMOTE STORM ORGANIZATION WITH STRONGER
CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING.

..ERN IA INTO WRN OH...
COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN HAS EVOLVED THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SURFACE
WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD WHILE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED BOUNDARIES REMAIN
IN PLACE IN THE WARM SECTOR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS VORTICITY
MAX IS MOVING ESEWD ACROSS SRN WI...AND THIS FEATURE MAY ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITHIN CLEAR SLOT EXTENDING FROM EAST CENTRAL
IA INTO NRN IL. STORMS WOULD THEN MOVE EWD/ESEWD ALONG THE SRN EDGE
OF THE STRONGER WLY FLOW ALOFT. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/WEAKER
LAPSE RATES WILL LESSEN HAIL THREAT BUT STRONGER CELLS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.WEISS/CROSBIE.. 08/05/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1651

ACUS11 KWNS 051606
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051605
DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-051730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1651
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CDT SUN AUG 05 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN DELMARVA PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 051605Z - 051730Z

A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG STALLING SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES IS BECOMING MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. THIS IS OCCURRING BENEATH A SMALL MID-LEVEL COLD
POCKET...CHARACTERIZED BY 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -10C...WHICH IS
IN THE PROCESS OF GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA. HOWEVER...MID-LEVELS MAY REMAIN COOL ENOUGH...GIVEN
CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING...FOR SUFFICIENT WEAKENING OF INHIBITION
TO ALLOW INITIATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA BY THE 18-20Z TIME FRAME. THIS MAY BE
AIDED BY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR CHESAPEAKE
BAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASING LOCALLY UP TO 2000-3000 J/KG ACROSS THIS
REGION WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.7 INCHES. THOUGH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL ONLY BE WEAK TO MODERATE IN STRENGTH...SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED WET DOWNBURST.
CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN SMALL...BUT AN
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO DOES NOT SEEM OUT OF THE QUESTION...MAINLY
ALONG OR NEAR WEAK INTERSECTING SURFACE BOUNDARIES.

.KERR.. 08/05/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...

38467635 38587557 38237499 37717478 37367510 37497577
37747616

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KUNR [051603]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 051603
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1003 AM MDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0940 PM TSTM WND GST 7 NNE OSAGE 44.07N 104.37W
08/04/2007 E60.00 MPH WESTON WY PUBLIC

&&

$$

MHOLM

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KRIW [051449]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KRIW 051449
LSRRIW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
849 AM MDT SUN AUG 05 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM TSTM WND DMG GRANT VILLAGE 44.39N 110.56W
08/04/2007 TETON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

APPROXIMATELY 12 TREES BLOWN DOWN ACROSS THE HIGHWAY
BETWEEN GRANT VILLAGE AND THE SOUTH ENTRANCE TO
YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK. ESTIMATED 50-60 MPH WINDS AT
GRANT VILLAGE PER THE PARK RANGER.

&&

$$

SKRBAC

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 051228
SWODY1
SPC AC 051226

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 AM CDT SUN AUG 05 2007

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN WY AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF ID AND MT...

..SYNOPSIS...
OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGING LITTLE WITH BROAD RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM SWRN U.S. EWD ACROSS THE U.S. PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS VICINITY NWRN COAST WITH IMPULSES TRACKING OUT OF TROUGH
ACROSS NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THEN EWD TO GREAT LAKES.

AT THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ACROSS DELMARVA AND
EXTENDS WWD THRU OH VALLEY TO A WEAK LOW WRN IA. FRONTAL ZONE
SEPARATES VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR FROM DRIER MORE STABLE AIR.

MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER AZ AND TO A LESSOR DEGREE NWD THRU
UT INTO WRN WY.

..WRN WY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF ID/MT...
W/V IMAGERY SUPPORTS PARTICULARLY THE GFS...PLACING A WELL DEFINED
S/WV TROUGH NRN CA MOVING NEWD OUT OF MAIN TROUGH POSITION.
UNSEASONABLY STRONG WIND MAX OF 80-90KT AT 300MB AND 50KT AT 500MB
TRACKS ACROSS SRN ID LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO WRN WY/SRN MT
THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WITH THE TROUGH
ALONG WITH THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM IS DRY IN LOW LEVELS ACROSS NRN NV AND SWRN ID...BUT WILL
ENCOUNTER INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE SPREADING NEWD THRU UT INTO
WRN WY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM HIGH BASED STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM ERN NV/UT BORDER NWD INTO SRN ID. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY EVOLVING INTO A LINEAR MODE IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE ID/WY BORDER WHERE MUCAPES EXPECTED
TO BE AOA 500 J/KG GIVEN THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT PARTICULARLY NWRN WY WHERE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF
STRONGER FLOW AND ASCENT WITH APPROACHING TROUGH.

..OH VALLEY...
SHARP MOISTURE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE FROM
SRN OH TO NRN IL. BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT A LITTLE NORTH AHEAD OF IA
SURFACE LOW...HOWEVER WITH PREDOMINANT WESTERLY COMPONENT ABOVE
ABOUT 1KM...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ANY SURFACE STORM INITIATION
SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS NRN OH VALLEY TODAY. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING
INTO THE LOW/MID 70S AND TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 90F...MLCAPES FROM
2500-3000 J/KG WILL BE COMMON IN WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES UNDER THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER WNWLYS TO
THE N...WITH BULK SHEAR GENERALLY 20KT OR LESS.

THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP VICINITY AND SOUTH OF FRONTAL ZONE
BY MID AFTERNOON WHEN CINH WILL WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY. THE LIMITED
SHEAR COUPLED WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LAPSE RATES OF
6C/KM OR LESS...SUGGESTS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO MOSTLY
WET DOWNBURSTS. ENHANCED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR VICINITY FRONTAL ZONE
DOES SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...WHICH COULD ENHANCE
PRIMARILY THE WIND THREAT.

..DELMARVA...
E/W FRONTAL ZONE STALLED CLOSE TO DCA THIS AM. S OF FRONT AIRMASS
IS WARM AND MOIST AND WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MLCAPES SHOULD CLIMB TO
AROUND 2000 J/KG. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS GENERALLY LESS THAN
20KT...WET MICRO BURSTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES THIS AFTERNOON AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.

.HALES/JEWELL.. 08/05/2007

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 050851
SWOD48
SPC AC 050850

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT SUN AUG 05 2007

VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

..DISCUSSION...
STRONG RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MUCH OF CONUS THROUGH
PERIOD. SOME NWD AMPLIFICATION OF HIGH HEIGHTS IS INDICATED BY
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS...GFS AND ECMWF OVER NRN PLAINS/UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THIS WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...MEAN LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE ALSO SHOULD MOVE NWD OVER UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THIS LIKELY PORTENDS SHIFT OF POTENTIAL MCS PATHS NWD INTO
CANADA...THOUGH DOWNSTREAM TRACKS MAY STILL AFFECT PORTIONS
MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN STRONG DEPENDENCE OF
TIMING/INTENSITY OF THESE COMPLEXES ON MESOSCALE
PROCESSES...SPECIFIC AREAS OF ORGANIZED SVR REMAIN TOO UNCERTAIN AND
CONDITIONAL FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK.

.EDWARDS.. 08/05/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 050712
SWODY3
SPC AC 050711

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 AM CDT SUN AUG 05 2007

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS TO
UPPER MS VALLEY...

..SYNOPSIS...
POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER TROUGH IS FCST FROM CANADIAN PRAIRIES
SWWD ACROSS NRN HIGH PLAINS OR NRN ROCKIES...TO NRN CA. DOWNSTREAM
FROM THAT TROUGH...SWLY FLOW GRADUALLY WILL BEND TO NEARLY ZONAL
PATTERN ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND SERN CANADA. WEAK/LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALMOST ANYWHERE WITHIN NRN
STREAM FLOW BELT...INCLUDING CONVECTIVE GENERATED VORTICITY MAXIMA.
SUCH FEATURES OFTEN ARE IMPORTANT CONTRIBUTORS TO CONVECTIVE/SVR
POTENTIAL...AND TYPICALLY ARE POORLY AND INCONSISTENTLY RESOLVED BY
DAY-3 SYNOPTIC PROGS. THIS REGIME IS NO EXCEPTION. STILL...EXPECT
SVR POTENTIAL TO BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED INVOF SFC FRONTAL ZONE FROM
NEW ENGLAND ACROSS LOWER MI TO IA/NEB. WRN PORTION OF FRONTAL ZONE
MAY SAG SWD TO SWRN NEB/NWRN KS...WITH SFC TROUGHING SWD OVER
CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.

..CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
THOUGH SPECIFIC FRONTAL/BOUNDARY POSITION REMAINS UNCLEAR OWING TO
INTERVENING CONVECTIVE PROCESSES...VERY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
AND AT LEAST MRGL SHEAR ARE EXPECTED IN ITS VICINITY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...INCLUDING SUPERCELL AND/OR BOW MODES....FOLLOWED BY
NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY SHIFTING EWD TOWARD MS VALLEY. CONVECTION
WILL BE AIDED BY STRONG INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...AS SFC DEW POINTS 70S F CONTRIBUTE TO 3000-5000 J/KG WARM
SECTOR MLCAPES. 0-6 KM SHEAR 35-45 KT ALSO SHOULD BE COMMON FROM
CENTRAL/SRN NEB NWD...BENEATH SRN RIM OF STRONGEST MID/UPPER WINDS.
SVR POTENTIAL WILL BECOME MORE SHORT-LIVED AND CONDITIONAL SWWD INTO
WRN KS AND WWD TOWARD NERN WY...WHERE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS FCST TO
BE MORE MEAGER.

..LOWER GREAT LAKES/NERN CONUS...
ONE OR MORE MCS MAY MOVE EWD ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR DURING
PERIOD...EMBEDDED WITHIN SRN PORTION OF AMBIENT BELT OF ENHANCED
MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS. SOME LOW LEVEL AIR MASS RECOVERY IS EXPECTED
FROM W-E...BEHIND PRIOR/DAY-2 FROPA...AND THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT AN MCS TRACK DEPENDING ON TIMING OF CONVECTIVE PERTURBATIONS
GENERATED FARTHER W. POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL AND
DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE PROCESSES TO WARRANT MORE THAN MRGL
PROBABILITIES ATTM.

..LOWER MI/LM REGION...
REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT/DAY-2 MCS MAY MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND MRGL HAIL...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY MAY BE WEAK. SVR PROBABILITIES WILL BECOME CONSIDERABLY
GREATER IF SOMEWHAT SLOWER MCS TIMING ALLOWS DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
OF FOREGOING BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THIS AREA. AS WITH ERN GREAT LAKES
CORRIDOR...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE TIMING/BOUNDARY UNCERTAINTIES
PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.

.EDWARDS.. 08/05/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 050556
SWODY2
SPC AC 050555

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SUN AUG 05 2007

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS TO
UPPER MS VALLEY...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS ERN MID-ATLANTIC AND
SRN NEW ENGLAND...

..SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN NRN STREAM IS FCST TO FLATTEN DOWNSTREAM
FROM TROUGHING ACROSS PACIFIC NW...WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS REGION. STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SASK -- WILL
MOVE FROM HUDSON BAY REGION AND NERN/ERN ONT ACROSS QUE DAY-2. THIS
FEATURE MAY PHASE WITH INITIALLY SEPARATE PERTURBATION -- POSSIBLY
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/ENHANCED -- ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.
MEANWHILE...PACIFIC NW TROUGH IS FCST TO SHIFT EWD OVER NRN ROCKIES.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC REGION.
DECELERATING WRN SEGMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BLEND WITH
PRE-EXISTING/QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM SRN ONT WWD ACROSS
LOWER MI...LM...WI AND SRN MN...TO SFC CYCLONE OVER SRN SD/NRN NEB.
SFC TROUGHING WILL EXTEND SWWD FROM FRONTAL LOW ACROSS WRN NEB/NWRN
KS DURING AFTERNOON.

..NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
MOST FOCUSED AREA FOR SVR POTENTIAL -- INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND PSBL
BOWS -- APPEARS TO BE FROM AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...FROM VICINITY
SFC CYCLONE EWD 200-300 NM NEAR FRONT. SPECIFIC FRONTAL POSITION
MAY BE INFLUENCED BY PRIOR/DAY-1 MCS ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...PROGS ARE
IN INCREASINGLY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON GENERAL ZONE WITHIN WHICH
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE LOCATE FROM SRN SD EWD INVOF MN/IA BORDER. IN
THIS CORRIDOR...EXPECT BACKED SFC WINDS TO YIELD LARGE LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS AND TO ENHANCE ALREADY FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
EXPECT STG HEATING OF BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS CONTAINING 70S F SFC
DEW POINTS...BENEATH 35-45 KT OF 500 MB WINDS AND 45-55 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR. WARM SECTOR MLCAPES 3000-5000 J/KG ARE
PROBABLE...OVERLAPPING WITH SRN PORTION OF 200-300 J/KG OF 0-3 KM
SRH INVOF FRONTAL ZONE.

CONVECTION SHOULD GROW IN COVERAGE AND MOVE EWD ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA
AFTER DARK...WITH SVR POTENTIAL PERHAPS EXTENDING TO NEAR MS RIVER
OVERNIGHT. FARTHER SW...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ALSO MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN NEB AND NWRN KS...ATOP STRONGLY HEATED
BOUNDARY LAYER. THOUGH SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER THAN FARTHER N...SVR
HAIL AND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS.

..NERN CONUS...
SCATTERED TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AROUND BEGINNING OF PERIOD OVER
PORTIONS NY/NEW ENGLAND...WITH AT LEAST MRGLLY FAVORABLE INFLOW
LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ROOTED NEAR 30-35 KT LLJ. ACTIVITY
SHOULD OCCUR ABOVE LAYER OF NEAR-SFC RETURN FLOW THAT STILL IS
RATHER INCOMPLETELY MODIFIED AS OF 06/12Z...HOWEVER MOIST/WARM
ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS IN NARROW PLUME AHEAD
OF FRONTAL ZONE. IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING...BOUNDARY
LAYER THETAE SHOULD INCREASE ENOUGH OVER PORTIONS ERN NEW ENGLAND
AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS TO SUPPORT SFC-BASED CONVECTION. ACTIVITY
MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS AND MRGLLY SVR HAIL. ALTHOUGH LAPSE
RATES WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...EXPECT WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT NEAR
SRN PERIPHERY OF ERN CANADIAN TROUGH...PERHAPS ENHANCED ON MESOSCALE
IN CASE OF ANY MCV FROM PRIOR/UPSTREAM/DAY-1 ACTIVITY.

..NRN HIGH PLAINS...
THOUGH OPERATIONAL AND SREF PROGS ARE RATHER INCONSISTENT WITH
TIMING OF MID/UPPER TROUGH EJECTION...ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT
SHOULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS MT DURING AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WEAK/RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND DIABATIC HEATING
OF POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HIGH BASED
TSTMS DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER CENTRAL/ERN MT AND PERHAPS
AS FAR SE AS WRN SD...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE STG GUSTS AND HAIL
AS THEY MOVE NEWD AMIDST FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR PROFILES.

..VA TIDEWATER TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND OH VALLEY...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS MAY DEVELOP INVOF
SFC FRONTAL ZONE VIRTUALLY ANYWHERE ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND PERHAPS PRIOR OUTFLOWS AS
ENHANCING FOCI. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE COMMON WITHIN AND
S OF FRONTAL ZONE...WITH SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO LOW 70S F BEING
COMMON. IN COMBINATION WITH STG DIURNAL HEATING...MLCAPES AROUND
2000 J/KG LIKEWISE SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD...SUPPORTING INTENSE
UPDRAFTS. WEAK LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW AND LACK OF STRONGER
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALSO ARE EXPECTED...AND MAY LIMIT ORGANIZED SVR
POTENTIAL.

.EDWARDS.. 08/05/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 050553
SWODY1
SPC AC 050550

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT SUN AUG 05 2007

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM IA EWD ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST...

..SYNOPSIS...
COAST-TO-COAST BELT OF FASTER WLY FLOW WILL ARC NEWD FROM THE BASE
OF A WEST COAST TROUGH...ACROSS THE ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS AND CNTRL
CANADA...THEN GENERALLY EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST. A
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FASTER WLY FLOW
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST ACROSS
ONTARIO/QUEBEC WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SINKING ACROSS THE BORDER
FROM MT/ND EWD TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS EMANATING
FROM THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL SPREAD INLAND
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND ENHANCE ASCENT ACROSS THE FRONT OVER
MT...AND PERHAPS ALONG LEE/THERMAL TROUGH/FRONT INTERSECTION OVER
THE DAKOTAS.

FARTHER SOUTH... BROAD WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND RESIDUAL SYNOPTIC
BOUNDARY WILL EXIST WITHIN WEAKER LARGE SCALE FLOW REGIME ON THE
NRN/ERN PERIPHERY OF SCNTRL U.S. UPPER RIDGE...FROM THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES...SOME CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED AND
SUSTAINED...ARE LIKELY TO MAINTAIN LIFT AND FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
MOVING EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

..UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE...
WEAKLY ORGANIZED MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING EARLY TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST ON THE EDGE OF THE PLAINS
CAPPING INVERSION AND NOSE OF WSWLY LLJ/WARM CONVEYOR BELT. COLD
POOL/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL ACT TO
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS RESIDUAL SYNOPTIC
FRONTAL ZONE...EMANATING FROM A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE/LOW OVER WI/IA
AREA EWD ACROSS IL/LOWER MI/IND/OH AREAS. DESPITE GENERALLY WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND WEAK LAPSE RATES...VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AND DIURNAL HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1500-2000 J PER KG/.

WITH HEATING AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT AND
LOW...CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NEAR
THESE FEATURES...AND ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...GIVEN RELATIVELY
LIMITED INHIBITION EAST OF THE MS RIVER. ON THE LARGER
SCALE...DEEP-LAYER WLY/UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW OF MOSTLY UNIFORM SPEED
IS EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST THAT STORMS IN THESE AREAS WOULD TEND TO BE WEAKLY ORGANIZED
AND MULTICELLULAR WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS. NEAR THE
LOW AND FRONT...FROM IL ACROSS LOWER MI TO OH...LOW LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES MAY PROVE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONGER UPDRAFT
ROTATION...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS WHERE GREATER DESTABILIZATION
/LOW LEVEL UPDRAFT ACCELERATION/ IS REALIZED. SOME SUPERCELL OR
BOWING CHARACTERISTICS MAY EVOLVE FROM STORMS IN THESE AREAS WITH
ATTENDANT TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREATS.

SOME UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES EWD TO THE NORTHEAST AS
WAVE/LOW...AND ASSOCIATED LONG-LIVED MCV/SHORT WAVE TROUGH...BEGIN
TO PHASE WITH THE STRONGER SYSTEM ACROSS ERN CANADA. WHILE THE
CHANCE FOR TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE NORTHEAST ON THE NOSE OF
INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET...SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DECREASE WITH EWD EXTENT AS CONVECTION BECOMES INCREASINGLY
REMOVED FROM STRONGER INSTABILITY RESIDING OVER THE MIDWEST AND
PLAINS.

..PLAINS WWD ACROSS ERN CO...
QUASI-STATIONARY WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW OVER
IA SWWD ACROSS NEB/KS AND THEN BACK INTO THE FRONT RANGE IN CO. WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN CO...WILL
LIKELY AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS. GENERALLY WEAK FLOW AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT
STORM PERSISTENCE AND SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...OR WITHIN WEAKLY VEERED FLOW ACROSS ERN CO...COULD
BRIEFLY ACHIEVE ROTATION WITH ISOLATED HAIL/HIGH WIND OR BRIEF
TORNADO EVENTS POSSIBLE.

..MID ATLANTIC...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
EWD TOWARD THE TIDEWATER/DELMARVA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG RESIDUAL
FRONTAL SEGMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS. AIR MASS CHARACTERISTICS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO POINTS WEST WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES BUT HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AND HEATING YIELDING STRONG DESTABILIZATION. WITH LOW-MID
LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY AOB 15 KT...EXPECT MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS TO POSSIBLY ENHANCE MULTICELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH
ISOLATED CELLS PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
LIMITED COVERAGE OF THIS THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT HIGHER
SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..NRN PLAINS/MT...
STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST NEAR FRONT/LEE TROUGH INTERSECTION
ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER ASCENT
ACROSS THIS REGION MAY BE FURTHER SUPPORTED BENEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET STREAK CROSSING SRN CANADA. HOWEVER..REGION DOES
REMAIN WITHIN RIDGING ALOFT WITH LIMITED LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS.
NAM-WRF INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR ROBUST BUT CONCENTRATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD WHILE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES LOWER PROBABILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT. IF
STORMS CAN FORM...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY AND TIMING ISSUES...ONLY LOW
PROBABILITY SEVERE WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS CONDITIONAL THREAT.
HOWEVER...A SLGT RISK MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

FARTHER WEST...HIGH-BASED FAST MOVING CONVECTION MAY AGAIN ARISE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM ERN ID ACROSS WRN MT AND WY. WEAK
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THESE AREAS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT BUT A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR.

.CARBIN/JEWELL.. 08/05/2007

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KDMX [050452]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 050452
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1152 PM CDT SAT AUG 04 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1150 PM FLASH FLOOD ROCKWELL CITY 42.40N 94.63W
08/04/2007 CALHOUN IA LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER RUNNING OVER HIGHWAY 20 IN ROCKWELL CITY.

1152 PM FLASH FLOOD POMEROY 42.55N 94.68W
08/04/2007 CALHOUN IA LAW ENFORCEMENT

FLOODING PROBLEMS IN THE CITY OF POMEROY

&&

$$

GFORSTER

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KBYZ [050448]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBYZ 050448
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1048 PM MDT SAT AUG 04 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM TSTM WND GST 4 S RAPELJE 45.91N 109.27W
08/04/2007 M65.00 MPH STILLWATER MT CO-OP OBSERVER

0520 PM TSTM WND GST 1 NE PARK CITY 45.64N 108.90W
08/04/2007 E60.00 MPH STILLWATER MT CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

SOLUM

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