SWOD48
SPC AC 050850
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT SUN AUG 05 2007
VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
..DISCUSSION...
STRONG RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MUCH OF CONUS THROUGH
PERIOD. SOME NWD AMPLIFICATION OF HIGH HEIGHTS IS INDICATED BY
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS...GFS AND ECMWF OVER NRN PLAINS/UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THIS WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...MEAN LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE ALSO SHOULD MOVE NWD OVER UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THIS LIKELY PORTENDS SHIFT OF POTENTIAL MCS PATHS NWD INTO
CANADA...THOUGH DOWNSTREAM TRACKS MAY STILL AFFECT PORTIONS
MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN STRONG DEPENDENCE OF
TIMING/INTENSITY OF THESE COMPLEXES ON MESOSCALE
PROCESSES...SPECIFIC AREAS OF ORGANIZED SVR REMAIN TOO UNCERTAIN AND
CONDITIONAL FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK.
.EDWARDS.. 08/05/2007
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